MLBTR Chat Transcript By Steve Adams | July 26, 2022 at 10:57am CDT Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
How close are the Mets to getting a deal done with the orioles to acquire Trey Mancini?
Would you rather have Mancini or Happ
C Yards Jeff
Interesting. Happ or Mancini? Both are definitely in play here. Maybe Mancini because Buck is familiar with him?
Yep but if we can get a package deal with Contrares and Happ I’m all in we need an offensive catcher
C Yards Jeff
I like it. And for that package offer, I’m thinking the Mets would more than willingly give up some decent prospects to make it happen.
Cubs would want Baty plus and I don’t see the Mets giving him up… Although, agree or disagree, I think the Mets, if they believe they have a Championship caliber team, should pull out all the stops.
Id be willing to bet not a single Cubs fan or anyone in their front office would rather have Torres back over the World Series title.
C Yards Jeff
@drasco036; had the pleasure of watching Baty play in person. Wonderful plate discipline. Let’s the ball get deep and then if he likes what he sees, he turns on it. Ie. keeps it simple, not a lot of moving parts). If I was Eppler, Baty would be an NA.
It’s really hard to say… it really comes down to how badly do the Mets want to win a World Series?
Cohen may be the second coming of George Steinbrenner but I think he will eventually run the Mets like a business and not continue to run a near 300 million payroll.
Right now, the Mets stand to lose a lot of players to the open market, especially pitching. That doesn’t bode well for them in 2023.
I think, when you are in World Series or bust mode, you make the moves to win a World Series… because someone is going to make those moves.
I said before, if I’m the Yankees, padres and or Mets, I make the soul crushing trade. If the Mets keep on with the Vogelbach type trades the Braves are taking that division. They have already floundered a 10 game lead.
C Yards Jeff
@Harrison Aaron; since your post and all the repost since, new story out there about JD Martinez possibly being available. Man, if that’s the case, I’d bypass Mancini and in the words of @drasco036 “make the soul crushing trade” to get JD. True he’s older and less productive these days but still comparable to Mancini. But the big difference maker, to me, between Trey and JD is playoff experience. We know JD can handle it, Trey has never been there, can he?
Soto extension to whomever team should not jump Mookie’s contract or value. I believe the one the Nats offered did exceed and I think Soto is not worth more than a Mookie Betts. Thoughts? Mookie is my best Comp. maybe Harper?
I agree plus Betts is a way better fielder
Betts IS way better fielder, but those skills diminish — and Betts is 29. Soto is a better offensive player in a worse lineup against some of the best pitching in the league in his division. He’s a 7-WAR player on a bad team at age-22 with little to no help defensively. His offensive numbers most likely will get better with age and in a better lineup/home park. His plate discipline, OB ability, HR prowess translate to any team, park, etc. Any acquiring team needs to have the ability to give him more than Mookie’s deal to maximize the ROI. But any acquiring team will get him for 2.5 years before FA. Not only that, Soto will free agency at almost 2 years sooner than Betts, which means any signing team gets more of his prime years, which should be a longer contract. Because of Soto non-diminishing offensive skills, you could argue he needs more AAV, though it’s offset by his defensive limitations, which are just below average.
IMHO, I see Soto as being similar to Gehrig – not in contract terms – but in player profile. Gehrig maintained a high-level for years and it’ll be interesting if Soto can continue more playing time with less risk at 1B/DH than if he stayed in COF.
Wait…Lou Gherig, the iroa ? I know it’s next to impossible to compare today’s players with the old-timers of yesteryear. Even so, those are some pretty darn lofty numbers Lou put up, numbers that Soto will never be close to.
Seriously, I know those are lofty numbers. Very different era, different players, but both have/had incredible plate discipline and power. Also, Soto doesn’t miss much time. Put up in the cocoon of 1B/DH, where might not want to be, like Gehrig and he could reach his offensive, especially surrounded by some other players like Gehrig had that can benefit and help pad those numbers. He’s not going to get there with a 41 y/o protecting him in the lineup.
His bat has already gotten worse than his 7 WAR season ( 163 wRC+ to 151 wRC+), so I’m less convinced than others on here that it’s a given that he goes back to last season’s numbers/gets better offensively. There have been studies that show that the effect of lineup protection is rather negligible for production, you can feel free to disagree with that, but based on that, I’m not sure going to another lineup is going to help much.
Additionally, the Nat’s home park seems to be pretty neutral, so I’m not sure going to a better home park is necessarily going to help him either, unless he goes to a hitter friendly park, but isn’t that true of pretty much everyone?
Finally, you say, “though it’s offset by his defensive limitations, which are just below average.” What do you mean, just below average? By UZR/150 he’s 46th of 57 qualified OFs. By DRS, he’s 48th. I used OF instead of RF because there are only 8 qualified RFs (he leads them in innings), but if you want to go by that, he’s 5/8 by uzr/150 and 7/8 by DRS
He’s obviously a very talented and valuable player, I’m just not sold that he’s going to get much better or remain a consistent 7 win type player going forward. He’s also not cheap relative to other arb eligible players. He’s obviously going to provide surplus value over the 2.5 years before FA (barring injury), but his value will be reduced by the cost.
The offer the Nats gave Soto was already Harper-like (high total value, but spread out over a term to lower AAV). It’s clear Soto isn’t looking for that type of contract, at least with WSH, under their current circumstances.
Soto’s age and inflation mean he will/should get paid more than Betts, especially if it’s for a longer term.
I’m glad someone else thinks the rumors about the Cards as Soto frontrunners are flawed. I just don’t see it happening. They need another pitcher. And I think acquiring Soto just to see if Jeff Albert can f@#$ him up is bad for baseball.
I don’t think Soto is worth destroying your farm team for. He is a bat only player. Bad fielder and base runner. And this year is a down year for him. The top 4 or 5 young players in your system plus $500 million to sign him is way too pricey.
These are all reasons I don’t see a fit with the Cardinals. They traded to get Goldy and Arenado, but both are excellent all around players who contribute in many ways even when they go 0-4.
For a team like the Cardinals it may not be worth gutting the farm as St.Louis regularly produces homegrown players that contribute at the Major League level. Getting Soto would almost mean hoping Arenado opts out of his deal because i would imagine it may be difficult paying Soto, Arenado, and Goldschmidt at the same time.
For a team like the Mariners it makes much more sense. Unlike the Cardinals the Mariners are not competitive every season and haven’t seen the postseason in two decades. Robbie Ray is their only long term contract so money should certainly not be an issue.
It’s going to be interesting to see what Soto nets the Nationals. I can’t think of a time a player most have in their top 10 in baseball being put on the trading block with more than just one year of control left. Not only does he come with more than 1 year of control remaining, but relatively affordable 2.5 years compared to what he can give you. Betts is the closest one I can think of, but he had just one year of control remaining. Chris Sale might come to mind, but that was a pitcher. Plus both were in the off-season rather than the trade deadline. Arenado, maybe because he had more than one year left, but most teams likely viewed him as a guy who would opt out.
I see what you are saying. Be it desperate teams and owners will sell the farm. Is it worth Soto? IMO no. He doesn’t show the leader the others have shown who get that money. Now pair him with a Batman he is definitely a Robin. My thoughts… Padres. Tatis is the man. Manny M will not be their forever. But Tatis and Soto. Would be fun. Challenge the Yankees of the West. LA Dodgers.
Michael Conforto? With injuries to ATL Duval, Keirmier TB and Stanton NYY. Give him a shot without trading just sign the dotted line. You all think he’s healthy. I say he gets signed before the weekend…