Josh Bell’s first few seasons in the majors were solid, though not elite. From 2016 to 2018, he hit 41 home runs, walked in 12.1% of his plate appearances and struck out in just 17.7% of them. Overall, he produced a batting line of .260/.348/.436, producing a wRC+ of 110, or 10% above league average.
Then came the big breakout. In 2019, Bell hit 37 long balls and produced a slash line of .261/.347/.476 for a wRC+ of 135. His walk and strikeout rates stayed around his customary pace at 12.1% and 19.2%, respectively. He accumulated 2.9 wins above replacement in the estimation of FanGraphs and 2.8 in the eyes of Baseball Reference.
However, he wasn’t able to maintain that tremendous showing. In the shortened 2020 season, a few things went in the wrong direction for Bell. His walk rate dropped a few points to 9.9% and his strikeouts ticked up to 26.5%. He hit just eight homers and hit .226/.305/.364 for a wRC+ of 77, or 23% below league average. Bell’s season was just one of many things that went wrong for the Pirates that year, as they finished 19-41, the worst team in baseball. They decided it was time to empty the roster for a rebuild, trading Bell to the Nationals before also trading away Joe Musgrove and Jameson Taillon.
The Nationals were surely hoping that 2020 was just a small-sample fluke and that Bell would return to the form he showed in 2019. At first, it may have appeared that they made a miscalculation. At the end of April last year, Bell was hitting just .113/.200/.264. As the size of the slump started to grow, it was fair to wonder if 2019 was the fluke, perhaps a product of the “juiced balls” that year.
However, once the calendar flipped, Bell also flipped and hasn’t looked back since. From May onwards last year, he hit 25 homers, walked in 11.8% of his plate appearances and struck out in just 16.5% of them. Overall, he slashed .279/.364/.501 for a wRC+ of 129. This year, he’s not only carried that over but has even found a new gear. Through 87 games, he has a 10.9% walk rate, 13.6% strikeout rate and is hitting .304/.386/.491. His wRC+ of 143 indicates he’s been 43% better than the league average hitter, a number which places him 22nd among qualified hitters across the league, sandwiched between J.D. Martinez and Jose Abreu. He’s produced 2.2 fWAR and 3.1 bWAR already, with almost three months still left to play.
And it’s not just at the plate where Bell is showing positive strides. An outfielder as a prospect, Bell was never really considered an excellent fielder, though he did have a good arm for right field. He transitioned to first base once he reached the upper levels of the minors and was still adjusting to the position as he reached the majors. Defensive Runs Saved gave him -6 at first base in 2016, Bell’s first season, wherein he only played the position in 23 games. In 2017, his first full campaign, he came in at -5 DRS, followed by -8, -6 and a -1 in the shortened season. Last year, he was able to keep himself to a -1 over a full season and in positive territory this year, with 3 DRS so far. Outs Above Average generally agrees with Bell’s defensive progress, having given Bell a negative number each year until a +4 last year and +1 so far this year.
The Nats started a roster overhaul last year, trading away most of their marquee players. They held onto Bell at last year’s deadline and through the offseason, a decision which might pay off handsomely, given that Bell seems to just continue growing as a player. The teardown has unsurprisingly guided them to the National League basement with a record of 30-58, with only the A’s keeping them from being last in all the majors. With no return to competition in sight and Bell just a few months from free agency, he is their best trade chip going into the August 2 deadline. (Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has emphatically stated that Juan Soto will not be traded.)
Bell is almost exclusively a first baseman at this point his career, having played just 26 games in the outfield, 16 of which came way back in his 2016 debut. That limits the number of teams who could acquire him theoretically, but with the universal DH implemented this year, it’s hard to think of a team that couldn’t fit Bell’s bat into their lineup somehow. He’s also a switch-hitter without drastic platoon splits, making him appealing to clubs regardless of which side of the plate they’re looking to improve. For his career, he’s got a 123 wRC+ as a lefty and a 105 as a righty. This year, it’s 147 and 136, respectively.
The Mets are known to be looking for a DH, giving consideration to Bell and his teammate Nelson Cruz. The Red Sox aren’t getting much from their Franchy Cordero and Bobby Dalbec platoon. They also make sense as a team interested in a rental with prospect Triston Casas currently injured but likely to be in the mix next year. With Josh Naylor dealing with a nagging injury, the Guardians have been using a lot of Owen Miller and Franmil Reyes, neither of whom are really standing in Bell’s way. The Blue Jays have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first but don’t really have a regular DH, using it on a rotating basis to players throughout the lineup. The Brewers need some extra thump in their lineup and have been rotating their outfielders through the DH slot. Even if you think of a team where Bell doesn’t fit, a sudden injury can create an opening, such as the Astros suddenly having both Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley on the IL.
Financially, Bell is playing out this season with a $10MM salary. Since we’re past the halfway point of the season, there’s less than $5MM to be paid out. That’s not a number that should scare away many teams, and even if it does, there’s no reason the Nats can’t eat most of that money in order to get a greater prospect package in return. Their roster teardown has resulted in a much lower payroll than recent seasons, giving them plenty of financial flexibility.
MLBTR recently released a list of the top 50 trade candidates, with Bell coming in at #3. Given his excellent year from both sides of the plate, his improvements in the field, his modest salary and his basement-dwelling team, everything is lined up for a headline-grabbing trade in the coming weeks. The Nats will surely net themselves some interesting young players to help them rebuild in the years to come, the acquiring team will get themselves an excellent bat to plug into their lineup for the stretch run, and Bell will potentially get a chance to play in the postseason for the first time in his career before heading into free agency as a 30-year-old, at the top of his game.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Future Padre, book it.
It seems like you say stuff like that about every name player rumored for trade.
You need to stop reading comments from Yankee and Red Sox fans when rumors like this are written.
I think you have me confused with someone else bc this makes no sense.
Neon Cop;
If it isn’t you then I apologize.
But let me tell you – for years now it seems that every time a name player is mentioned as a trade possibility I read numerous posts telling me he’s going to the Padres, Yankees or Red Sox (lately the Mets fans are chiming in).
Maybe the reason I saw red was the: “book it”; as opposed to any reason why and what the Padres would send back.
Wasn’t me!
You’ll have to forgive Sammy. He thinks he’s the authority on these pages. Always telling people what they shouldn’t think, or how they are wrong. This was comical that he didn’t even have the right guy. Derp!
I am not familiar with Sammy’s thoughts, but he’s right
Uh, “I am not familiar with Sammy’s thoughts on this site, in general. In this particular case , he’s right”
Pardon me
I concur
+1000
These comment sites way too often turn into a Pin-Head-A-Palooza.
I wouldn’t trust it. I like Bell, but he’s so inconsistent from season to season that who knows if a change of scenery sends his season into the crapper.
He has alot of incentive, this winter is his winter to get a nice payday. 4-5 years and $80-$100M
Incentive is overrated. Players generally try hard all the time. A contract year isn’t going to suddenly make him better than he is. That’s a fan myth.
Maybe, maybe not:
https://slate.com/culture/2012/05/contract-year-effect-do-sports-free-agents-try-harder.html
@Cosmo2–I guess that you don’t remember Derek Bell and “Operation Shutdown” and others like him that don’t try hard all the time. You are right that the contract year does not increase talent but it does give incentive to play to the talent level that they do possess as opposed to take it a little easy at times.
True, not EVERY player tries hard all the time but those are rare exceptions. As a general rule players don’t need extra incentive to try and be awesome. But there are exceptions.
Will be interesting to see how the rest of this season plays out. He was having a massive season until right before the All Star Game in 2019 just like this year. Also, just like this season. he catered before the break. Started sooner in 2019 but is only hitting .200 in July Does he bounce back or does the crater widen?
Crater widens. These 10 days of July are a certain indication that he is finished.
Pirates fans kept hoping he would bound back in 2019 but it never happened. Pirates were only 2 games under and had won 13 of 20 to end the 2st half and were 3 games back of the Cubs. They also cratered as a team to match Bell.
Pirates gave up on him too soon. Sold low instead of waiting till he bounced back some. Only reason I can think of was to save Nutting money.
He was bad from June on in 2019 and was awful in 2020. If he does not bounce back much in 2021 they get even less.
We Nats fans certainly love Josh Bell, and I hold my breath every day he is out there. I wish some team would blow Mike Rizzo away this afternoon with a spectacular offer so the Nats get what they need and Bell doesn’t get injured. I suppose that teams are probably talking to Rizzo, trying to get him, but nobody is telling. It seems that if having Bell from the beginning of August is a good idea, that having him for half of July as well is an even better idea.
He’s been a really good player, an admired teammate and he’s the face of a book club that inspires folks to read. He’d be a quality addition to any team.
The Mets make sense, with Bell filling the role that D Smith was supposed to- DH, backup 1b, emergency corner OF.
But I wonder if the Nationals are going to be eager to help out a division rival?
Plus, it would seem more likely Mets add a DH bat by taking on some wildly overpriced player.
Nats goal is to finish dead last. I don’t think they are worried about where Bell plays for 2 months.
Rachel Phelps er Mark Lerner can’t be happy. John Fisher and the A’s are leading in the race to finish dead last by 1 game.
Nats won’t be competing for years… Bell as a rental… they wouldn’t care giving him to the Mets if they give the best offer… Vientos makes sense.
Nats will be dreadful with or without him. A few months with a division rival shouldn’t deter a trade with the Mets. Take the best deal, no matter who it comes from, in this case.
Nats said no to Scherzer being a Mets doubt they trade with us for Bell and if they do Rhee will want our top prospects
A bit of apples/oranges there.. Max also had a no trade clause.. he could control his destiny
Nats got more from the Dodgers than they could have from the Mets. The Mets aren’t exactly rolling in prospects and the Dodgers have an enviable farm system.
I could play it the other way and say I’d prefer the take the prospect capital of a division rival.
If anything, it will be the Mets hesitant to give up a guy who then beats up on them for six years.
I wouldn’t give up too prospects for him, I’d guess a regression to the mean is coming. He’ll still be a valuable hitter but the price has to be right.
Why would you buy at the peak? It’s all downhill from here.
Because no one TRULY knows when a player’s peak is until after their career is over. Right now it is just a guessing game. An educated guessing game, but still a guessing game.
Do you suggest getting someone who is playing poorly and hoping for the best?
@skedeebs
Yes, would make more sense.
He would look good in Ranger blue as a DH and part time 1b. If he does well he can stay home a few years as he is young enough to factor into future Ranger plans.
As a free agent signing, yes. He’d be perfect there. No need to trade for him now, though.
I like Josh
The question is whether or not the character issues and other headaches he brings with him are worth putting up with.
Huh? Like leading the Nationals’ book club and reading to children? Is the problem that all of his teammates really like him? What are you talking about?
There’s a darker side to his personal life and veiled whispers of it amongst past teams and teammates. Work ethic concerns as well in terms of showing up when the games mean something.
Total bs. As a Pirate and Nat he has never played a game that has meant something.
Why not just come out and say “he’s BLACK!!!”?
Perhaps because it’s not about race? At some point you wanna realize that YOU are the bigot, allowing yourself the assumption that everyone else is racist without any evidence?
There have been complaints about him in the past but that was likely just personality clashes, not something inherent to him.
The ’22 numbers (so far) – especially against lefties – would make him a target for the Dodgers. But having Freddie means Bell at DH, which would mean our dear aging JT into the field more than he has to be.. Or, even worse, force a choice between Will Smith or Josh Bell on Austin Barnes days.
We have more pressing matters defensively that Bell can’t answer.
Man I think he’d be a great fit with our team in Seattle if we didn’t already have such a logjam at 1B/DH/COF
Heh, so he be a great fit if he wasn’t not a great fit?
Exactly. Lol
Would love to have him as a stabilizing force in the middle of our lineup , just not realistic
The Brewers need a bat. Not the Mets, Red Sox or especially the Dodgers. They need pitching
All Star snub, but Pete & Goldy we’re more than worthy of earning their spots in the ASG
The Phillies desperately need a big bat to make up for the loss of Harper. “Long Ball” Hall has popped four homers, but he’s clearly not in the same league as Bell.
Nats will want a lot, and that’s where the Phillies fall short. We have no budding super stars at AA or AAA. Fact is, if the Phillies lined up all their solid prospects there’d be no need to pay for crowd control.
Dombrowski is gonna have to do his trade deadline shopping at the Dollar Store while others make deals for the higher priced merchandise.
Five years of Matt Klentak calling the shots has set this team back ten years. Like the past few off seasons, if the Phillies want to improve, they have to buy players (Wheeler, Castellanos, Schwarber and/or resign their own FA (Realmuto and Didi).
Nothing on the farm except two pitchers; Abel and Painter, and they are a few years away from being a few years away! That, and as we all know, “There’s no such thing as a slam dunk pitching prospect.”. Most of them break your heart.
Hard to get a sense of the Nationals’ chemistry as a fan. But if their small core of young position players (Soto, Ruiz, Garcia) is happy with Bell as a veteran teammate they might want to consider keeping Bell and offering him a QO at season’s end. Or even working out an extension. Versus the relatively modest prospect return they’d receive by trading him now. He’s not blocking anyone in their system.
Nothing would prevent DC from re-signing Bell this offseason even if they trade him now, but he’ll command competing multi-year offers at that point.
Please don’t go down the path of clickbait headlines.