After years of rumors, the Brewers have finally traded All-Star closer Josh Hader, sending him to the Padres in a stunning deadline blockbuster. The two teams announced Monday that Hader is on his way to San Diego in exchange for the Padres’ own closer, Taylor Rogers, as well as righty Dinelson Lamet, pitching prospect Robert Gasser and outfield prospect Esteury Ruiz. In order to clear a 40-man roster spot, Milwaukee transferred reliever Miguel Sanchez from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list.
It’s a massive get for the Padres, and while it’s a genuine surprise to see Milwaukee move its closer while holding a three-game lead in the National League Central, the reasoning behind the trade is fairly straightforward. Hader’s $11MM salary figures to jump north of $15MM next season in his final year of club control, and a generally budget-conscious Brewers club may not be willing to dedicate $15-17MM to a single reliever when that represents such a notable portion of the overall payroll.
The Brewers, of course, could have held Hader into the winter and made him available at that point, but the allure of landing Hader for multiple postseason pushes undeniably allowed them to seek a higher price right now. To that end, they’re acquiring a closer of their own in Rogers, who — like Hader — has struggled of late but has an excellent track record spanning several seasons. Milwaukee also adds a high-octane arm in Lamet, albeit one that’s been plagued by injuries, and two of the Padres’ top ten prospects in Gasser and Ruiz, which breathes some much-needed life into a farm system that has generally not been considered among the sport’s strongest.
It’s the sort of trade we’re accustomed to seeing smaller-payroll clubs like the Rays and Guardians make with regularity: cash in a coveted player’s trade value when he has multiple seasons of club control and simultaneously backfill that spot on the roster with other big league help. It’s an immediate downgrade on the roster overall, but this type of simultaneous buy-and-sell tightrope act has been one of the keys to Tampa Bay, Cleveland and even Milwaukee itself remaining competitive despite rarely being able to spend top-of-the-market money.
“The players we are receiving in this trade help ensure that the future of the Milwaukee Brewers remains bright while not compromising our desire and expectation to win today,” Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns said in a statement announcing the deal. “This mix of present Major League talent and high-level prospects furthers our aim to get as many bites of the apple as possible and, ultimately, to bring a World Series to Milwaukee. Trading good players on good teams is difficult, and that is certainly the case with Josh. We also recognize that to give our organization the best chance for sustained competitiveness, to avoid the extended down periods that so many organizations experience, we must make decisions that are not easy.”
Hader, 28, is sitting on a career-worst 4.24 ERA, though that mark was inflated by an uncharacteristic pair of consecutive meltdowns earlier this month, wherein he was tagged for a staggering nine earned runs in one-third of an inning. Outside that pair of disastrous outings, Hader has a 1.87 ERA in 33 2/3 innings. He didn’t even allow a run this season until June 7 and has punched out a massive 41.8% of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate.
Dating back to Hader’s 2017 debut, no one in baseball has topped his enormous 44.1% strikeout rate — nor have they come especially close to doing so. (Craig Kimbrel is second at 40.6%.) Hader’s 2.48 ERA in that time is eighth-best among 309 qualified relievers, and no one has topped his 19.5% swinging-strike rate.
The name who trails Hader in that massive swinging-strike rate — now-former teammate Devin Williams — may have something to do with today’s trade as well. The Brewers surely wouldn’t have been as comfortable moving Hader were it not for Williams’ own breakthrough as one of the sport’s most dominant relief pitchers. Armed with a lethal changeup (nicknamed the “Airbender”), Williams ranks fourth in strikeout rate (39.9%), second in swinging-strike rate (18.6%) and second in ERA (1.94) among that same subset of qualified relievers just mentioned with regard to Hader.
There’s certainly an argument to be made that Milwaukee should have simply kept Hader and trotted out that dominant duo throughout the rest of the season and the forthcoming playoff run, but the blend of high-upside, immediate replacements (Rogers, Lamet) and the long-term value of adding a pair of well-regarded prospects to the system proved too alluring for Stearns, GM Matt Arnold and the rest of the Milwaukee staff.
Turning to that collection of newly acquired talent, the Brewers will surely hope that Rogers can shake off the recent slump that has plagued him over the past two months. Rogers, from 2018-21 with the Twins, wasn’t far behind Hader on the list of the sport’s best left-handed relievers. He worked 197 2/3 frames during that time, pitching to a 2.91 ERA with a 31.2% strikeout rate, a 4.9% walk rate and 50 saves. A torn tendon in his pitching hand cut last season short for Rogers, however, and he was shipped from the Twins to San Diego on the eve of Opening Day this year.
Rogers took to his new environs brilliantly, pitching to a dominant 0.44 ERA with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio through his first 20 1/3 innings. Since that time, however, he’s been clobbered for an 8.14 ERA in a nearly identical sample of 21 innings. Rogers still has an exceptional 25-to-5 K/BB ratio over that ugly stretch, however, and he’s only allowed one home run along the way. He’s been dogged by a sky-high .429 average on balls in play during this slump, but it’s still hard to overlook a stretch that has seen Rogers surrender runs in 13 of his past 22 appearances.
Still, Rogers’ track record is alluring, and perhaps the Brewers have their own idea about how to the lefty can get back on track. He’s a free agent at season’s end, making Rogers a pure rental — but he’s an ultra-affordable one, as the Twins covered all but $700K of his salary in that trade to the Padres.
Lamet, meanwhile, is another huge upside arm on whom the Brewers are buying low. The flamethrowing righty was a Cy Young candidate in the shortened 2020 season but went down with a biceps injury late that season and missed a significant portion of the 2021 campaign due to forearm strains.
Lamet has yielded 13 earned runs in just 12 1/3 Major League innings this season, but he’s been dominant in Triple-A (0.77 ERA in 11 2/3 frames). His fastball, which averaged 97 mph in 2020, is down to an average of 95.3 mph this year. There are obviously plenty of red flags with Lamet, but if he can recapture anything resembling his 2020 form (2.09 ERA, 34.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate) while coming out of the Milwaukee bullpen, he’d be a formidable addition to the relief corps both this year and next, as he’s arbitration-eligible once more before free agency in the 2023-24 offseason.
Both Gasser and Ruiz were among the Padres’ top 10 prospects and will now also join the Brewers’ top 10. Gasser, 23, was the No. 71 overall pick in the 2021 draft and has held his own in the rotation with the Padres’ Class-A Advanced affiliate this season. In 90 1/3 innings, he’s notched a 4.18 ERA but a far more impressive 3.27 FIP, thanks largely to a gaudy 30.5% strikeout rate and a sharp 7.4% walk rate. Somewhat amusingly, Gasser doesn’t rely on velocity to find success but rather plus command and a plus breaking ball. Baseball America tabs his fastball in the 90-93 mph range and calls Gasser a high-probability fourth starter — one who could move quickly through the minors. He could be an option in the Milwaukee by late in the 2023 season and certainly by the 2024 campaign.
Ruiz, meanwhile, is an immediate option for the Brewers in center field. He’s already made his big league debut, and while he’s just 6-for-27 through his first few games, he obliterated Double-A pitching (.344/.474/.611 in 232 plate appearances) and Triple-A opposition so far in 2022 (.315/.457/.477 in 142 plate appearances). Ruiz, incredibly, has stolen 60 bases in just 77 minor league games this year and has already picked up the first of what should be quite a few big league steals as well. Add in average or better raw power, and it’s easy to see why Milwaukee was enamored of him — particularly given the team’s need in center field.
Ruiz isn’t a true center fielder and only moved to the outfield on a full-time basis last season after struggling as an infielder, but BA’s scouting report on him notes that he’s already making decent jumps and reads as he learns center field on the fly. Strikeouts were an issue for Ruiz earlier in his career, but he’s punched out at just a 17.4% clip in the minors so far this season and has reportedly made some changes to his approach and swing that have improved upon his bat-to-ball abilities.
Of course, it’s far from common to see a division-leading team part with one of the game’s best players at his position midway through the season, but the entire gambit for the Brewers is an upside play that could net them comparable production in 2022 and considerable long-term value thereafter.
For the Padres, it’s a pure short-term play with the goal of putting together a powerhouse postseason pitching staff. It’s also surely not the only move San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will make between now and tomorrow’s deadline. He managed to add Hader without having to surrender any of the organization’s very top-end prospects — e.g. Robert Hassell III, C.J. Abrams, Jackson Merrill, James Wood, Luis Campusano — all of whom could be used as firepower to bring in a sizable pitching or outfield upgrade (e.g. Frankie Montas, Juan Soto).
It bears mentioning that the acquisition of Hader likely puts the Padres over the luxury tax threshold, even with Lamet’s salary going back to Milwaukee. That only serves as a further portent for significant dealing from Preller & Co., though. In all likelihood, the Padres are just getting started, and we shouldn’t expect this to be the only move of note for the Brewers either.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the Brewers were close to a trade of Hader. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Hader was going to the Padres in exchange for Rogers, Lamet, Gasser and Ruiz (Twitter links).
Well that waa unexpcted
Good decision by the Brewers. They need to improve their farm system because the Pirates and Reds will be good in a few years and they should not stay behind in the division.
Lol. That’s not how it works
How does it work? Milwaukee has a stud out there in the bullpen now in Williams, they obviously see something in Lamet (two years ago people on this board were talking about how he was an elite starter waiting to happen…where are those voices?), Rogers has had a down year but will likely rebound at some point, and the two prospects look solid. What did Milwaukee do wrong, young GM in training?
I think this reply has to be translated to understand that what it really means is “lol I’m really smart and you’re not”. A Beavis looking for his Butthead.
Wanna bet.. For mid market teams, today…Yes
How does it work? Please enlighten us with all your years working in MLB front offices.
David stearns has been proven to be elite
@ 2id
When i saw that comment by Francys01 my first thought was that i dont think GMs concern themselves with thoughts like “pirates and reds will be good in a few years” so i think that is what 13Morgs13 meant by their comment.
I mean really they are right. The brewers should be managing their own team and try to compete with the teams currently above them or around them. Not being worried that cellar dwellers are rebuilding and *might* be good in a couple years.
It was kind of a dumb comment by Francys01
i’m a Padres fan. and not so happy about all that we gave up. your points are spot on.
no francys01… his comment wasn’t dumb at all.
David Sterns traded 1 for 4 with AJ Preller.
What more can be written?
I’m a Brewers fan but this trade didn’t even improve their farm, so the idea that they replenished their young talent is wrong. They didn’t get Gore, Abrams, Hassell, or Campusano.
Rogers is fine but his contract is expiring, Lamet has one more ARB year but he’s always hurt and not very good this season, Ruis got off to a nice start in MLB but he’s not that great of a prospect, and Gasser is at least in the Dads top 10 but he’s a 23 year old pitcher in high A.
A start would be that they did nothing to address the offense while taking away a huge strength.
Pretty sure his implication was that the Brewers need to maintain a steady stream of prospects to remain relevant and not necessarily worrying about the Reds and Pirates
Dude said “that’s not how it works”, implying he does know how it works without actually offering up any insights.
Oh, and AJ the LMAO at the end of your comment makes you sound like a 15 year old boy or girl. Pick your pronoun.
AJ, I don’t think you could have possibly made yourself seem more absurd in just one comment.
Very meta here with the side comments and analysis on what he meant/she meant. So riveting!
pdubs- Ruiz is an okay prospect? The dude is pretty highly regarded. As with any prospect there’s a good chance he fizzles out, but there’s a lot to like there. Gasser was a 2nd round pick last year but with intriguing stuff. It improved the farm a bit but it also improved your controllable talent and opened up payroll.
Motion to ban anyone who says stuff like “Please enlighten us with all your years working in MLB front offices?”
The Pirates and Reds have been rebuilding for 30 years each at this point. Why would anyone actually think it’s any different this time?
@Steven Juris you obviously don’t follow anything but your own team. Troll on buddy! You’re going places!
Bud you obviously have missed the last 30 years where the Pirates are a Major league feeder organization for the good teams. The organization sucks crap and that’s obvious to the naked eye.
Steven- You are only partially right.
1993-2016 poor ownership and worse management provide no direction
2007-2009 new ownership and management making mistakes
2010-2012 rebuild begins
2013-2015 second best record in all of baseball
2016-2019 AS game mediocrity
AS game 2019 to now rebuild
Not sure who you root for but any studious baseball fan would be aware of this record
I love the clueless “23 year old pitcher in high A” comments. Brandon Woodruff pitched in high A when he was 23.
And during those 2013-2015 “second best record in baseball” years, the Pirates still finished in the bottom half for attendance, except 2015 when they finished 15th.
Even when there was a winning team, fans didn’t go to games. Maybe you should stop blaming management and take a look in the mirror.
Brewcrew-I have not lived in the Pittsburgh area for over 44 years so I cannot attend games.I have followed them since 1961 and still follow them closely even though they have been a bad team for three years.
They are a small market team with not a large stadium so attendance will never compete with the large and medium market teams.Good try though.
Anyone who follows the Pirates as closely as you seem to think that you do knows that the ownership and management was very weak during the 90’s and 2000’s.Fans could have filled the stadium every game and it would not have made a difference.
Maybe you should look in the mirror and see the pompous know it all that you are.
Three straight years of making the playoffs and in the third year can only reach 15th in attendance. Behind 5 teams that didn’t make the playoffs. First year, I can understand. But that 2015 team didn’t sneak up on anyone.
So you feel that ownership should spend bunches of money, despite the fans not buying tickets to a winning team. Right
Pittsburgh doesn’t deserve a major league team.
Steven- And about the feeder quote.Aren’t all small market teams designed to provide seasoned veteran players to the large market teams who can afford them?The Yankees had the Athletics in the 1950’s but that was a different era.One small market team has won the WS in the last 30 years.Contracts like Votto and Yelich can cripple small market teams.Not sure that you even know about your own team or if you follow any.
Being 15th in attendance is pretty impressive when only 4 major league ballparks have a smaller capacity.
Brew crew-There you go again.Small market teams have to spend money wisely.I never said that I felt that “ownership should spend bunches of money”.
Your know it all attitude is duly confirmed.
And who are you to say that Pittsburgh does not deserve a ML team?
That is where your pompous part comes out.
By the way,I believe that 2015 was the all time attendance record for the Pirates,and the only small market team above them was the Brewers.
Being 15th in attendance is pretty crappy when the team is making their third straight playoff appearance.
Brewcrew-As In your previous statement this is only your opinion.
Averaging well over 30,000 fans a game,no matter how good the team is, is pretty good for any small to mid market team,especially one that fills 90% of the seats.
You seem to have an extreme distaste for other Central Division teams.I saw your post on the winningest WS team in the NL,the St Louis Cardinals.
Do you have a similar distaste for the Reds and Cubs too?
There’s more to this than meets the eye. Gasser seems like a solid prospect but that roughly balances the Lamet salary dump. Rogers is a downgrade at closer. We’re missing some key piece of information.
Rogers would be a downgrade at closer, but he may be setting up for Williams now, not closing.
Maybe not. I think the Brewers got the better end of the deal especially with Hater struggling as of late. Of course Lament is the wild card here if he lives up to hype than the deal becomes a hugh win if he is average than the deal is average. Other prospects could become key too but that is true of all prospects.
I don’t know if Lamet is a salary dump as much as a reclamation project. He makes $4 million this year and probably won’t see a huge raise as a result of his below average numbers and pitching from the bullpen. Milwaukee is great at fixing pitchers.
I think Hader was getting too expensive to devote 1 roster spot too. Now they get Rogers and Lamet at the same price this year and save money next year at the RP with Lamet, plus MLB ready OF in Ruiz and low level, high upside pitcher in Gasser.
I believe D. Williams will be the new closer.
Exactly.
Ruiz has legit speed & power. He’s looked ok in his spot starts the last couple weeks in the Show. He just needs to work on his plate discipline as he doesn’t walk. This is the main piece in the trade for the Brewers and they got an average closer Rodgers who should be a set up man in return for this yr.
Agreed.
His power hasn’t really translated since he got called up. He may have looked better than he is in the pacific coast league.
@Mike Piazza Pie, Lamet is a big non-tender candidate for next year. He makes $4.75M this year and you’re right that he’s not really going to get much of a raise, but he’s awful right now so committing ~$4 to 5M to him next year would require a lot of faith.
Williams is the Brewers closer. He has something like 30 scoreless outings this season I think.
Hader had an awful July….maybe the Brewers proactively making a deal before his value disappears
Ruiz hasn’t looked all that ML ready this month in SD. He is definitely talented and looks like a CF but he’s been 1-11 after starting out 5-15. Great speed though, doesn’t strike out much, and has had about 500 innings at CF in the minors. Brewers must be bringing him to the big club to find out or the deal doesn’t make sense now vs. waiting for the winter meetings. I think this was about trying to score on reviving Lamet’s career, and hoping Ruiz can suceed with more playing time. We’re gonna find out. I personally wish they would have waited to trade Hader, Seems to me this wasn’t anything more than what they could have gotten for Hader in the off season, but Stearns doesn’t get schooled very often in trades, and he knows a hell of a lot more about the players in the deal than I do. Hope it works out.
Rogers has been terrible since the beginning of June. At least Hader had a good excuse with his wife having problems with their pregnancy and then having a new baby in mid-June.
@CNichols
Yeah he probably will be non-tendered if Milwaukee can’t fix him. This gives the brewer’s pitching factory 2 months to work their magic.
I’ve learned not to doubt teams like Milwaukee, Tampa, Dodgers, or Yankees when it comes to turning things around for pitchers other teams throw away.
I’m not guaranteeing they turn Lamet into what padre fans claimed he would be. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they unlocked some of that potential and make him a viable option in relief.
@Shawnpe, please watch this video of Pete Alonso’s “double” and then write that Ruiz can handle CF or even any OF position. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U30MSEfYejI
the Pirates are coming!
the Pirates are coming!
and the Big Red Machine too…
Clear the deck!
3-4 years from now… and that’s just … maybe? at best.
Good deal?? Are you nuts??? However—- it is a Good deal for the Cardinals. When Hadar came in——- The Cardinals players just would add to Hadar’s lifetime Strikeouts!! Wish the Cards had gotten him!!
they got a lot back 17dizzy. so yes… it’s a good deal for the brewers.
What did they get back? A 32 year-old MLB closer with an ERA over 4, a 23-year old P in A+ with an ERA over 4 and a minor-leaguer who’s had one good year. They got ripped off. They probably didn’t call LA to see what they wanted to give up.
You do know the Brewers wouldn’t have traded him to the Cards without an astronomical price tag right? In discussion, with a year and a half control, and the Cards 3 back? Give them your entire farm system, and sure, they’d of taken it. All kidding aside, it’d of never happened.
Could very well be.
The Reds won’t be good in a few years.
And even if the Reds are good in a few years, just wait a few weeks and they will trade them away for more prospects. Same with the Pirates.
The Pirates will never be good under current ownership
They were pretty good from 2013-2015 under the current ownership. Didn’t win a title, but that doesn’t mean they were bad.
Second best regular season record in all of baseball for those three years.Not bad for a small market team.
Didn’t see this coming, but the deal smells very much like one Tampa Bay would pull off
13Morgs13, that is how it works…
Sportznut1000 francys01 didn’t make a dumb comment at all pirates are comin, cubs are coming, gonna be a very competitive division come 2025
looks like a salary dump to me.
Lamet and Rogers are both trash
Unexpected and seems light for what may be the best reliever in the game. I would of loved to seen hader/clase back to back in Cleveland.
The best reliever in the game doesn’t have an era around 4.5
To be fair Hader’s biggest blow up games that inflated his ERA was during the time his wife was having pregnancy complications and then his delivered early. He honestly should have probably just stepped away for a couple weeks in there.
Craig Counsel just kept him in even though the Brewers were falling apart during that game.
Not true. His wife Maria had pregnancy complications in late May and gave birth June 15th. Hader has given up runs in 5 of 6 appearances leading up to the ASG including 3 without recording an out against the Twins and 6 against the Giants while recording just one out. Seemed to me like it was typical new daddy not getting any rest.
Hader has struggled this season. 4.24 ERA and his peripherals are not good either. Obviously the Padres believe he can turn it around down the stretch or they saw something they think they can fix easily.
Hader was awesome for this season. He had a couple of bad outings which raised his ERA to their current levels. That is the problem with judging relievers by ERA. They never have many innings so one bad day makes the whole year look bad. A starter can make up for a bad outing with one or two good outings in a row. A reliever needs about 10-15 good outings to make up for one bad one.
Hader’s peripherals include 15.62 K/9. His walk rate is the second-lowest of his career. Both his xERA and xFIP are much lower than the unadjusted numbers. His SIERA = 1.85,
His BABIP is about 70 points higher than his career average. Sometimes that happens to pitchers because they start giving up harder contact, but it doesn’t look like that’s the case for Hader.
TL/DR: His peripherals look pretty damn good.
Padres just got better. Next up Soto!
the need (for the Padres) was obvious though. I would have been shocked if the DIDN”T address the RP mess. Rogers (and Lamet) weren’t getting it done. Sorry to lose Ruiz though, he’s going to be a nice MLBer.
Ruiz has RAW speed on the basepaths, but likely projected as a 4th OF in San Diego. I hate to see him go, but in trades…to get….you have to give.
Good trade for the brewers. Don’t get noticeably worst while adding years of control with other talent back. This is how smaller markets have sustainable success.
Is he gassed? How has he done in last 2 appearances?
Padres needed relief pitching and Rogers has been struggling, so a great move for them. Not so sure if it was good for the Brewers.
Hader has been struggling too, but has more upside in my opinion. Hader also has one more year of control. Taylor Rogers will be a free agent at the end of the season.
I’m a lover, not a Hader. This guy has been lights out until this year. Seems like a big risk for the Brewers..
More stuff must be “brewing” here.
Hahahahahaha
Yeah, from a fanbase perspective, this is a tough trade to justify unless you make a notable add as well.
Which would you prefer and they’re are only two options. This trade or losing him to free agency for nothing more than a comp pick? And keep in mind the rules could change where you don’t get the comp pick? No resigning him isn’t a option nor should it be.
@iverbure How about keeping him for this year and next and winning a WS with Hader recording the final out of the WS for Milwaukee?
Let’s get hot!
wtf
Let’s go!!!
I did not see that coming. Now the Brewers are in on Soto!
I just read from ESPN that Yankees are closing in on deal for Soto
Source?
ESPN
Oh wow, espn is handjobbing the Yankees? Totally haven’t seen that one before
Can’t find that on their site, but they did just trade for a rookie reliever from the Cubs. Also a video on ESPN with Passan saying Padres are still in on Soto. https://www.espn.com/video/clip/_/id/34328648
About the Yankees trade for Effross https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34328414/trade-grades-new-york-yankees-bolster-bullpen-rookie-sidearmer-scott-effross
Effross. Effhoyer and Effricketts too
Brewers just opening that door for the Cards.
The Brewers traded a closer with a 4.24 ERA, 3.47 FIP
They’re getting a closer with a 4.35 ERA, 2.35 FIP
It’s not as though they got noticeably worse, while they also added Lamet and others
The deal is very questionable from Padres side
The prospects may pan out, but Lamet is HORRIBLE.
nolangorman, in 2020 he was the best starting pitcher in baseball along with degrom. i’m sorry, but if that was 2 years ago, he could easily be great again. and even if not great, very good.
AJ the Rastaman, As a lifetime Padres fan I took offense to the adjective “HORRIBLE” being used to describe Dinelson Lamet. He was a 2020 Cy Young Candidate, finishing 3rd. Unfortunately, he went down with another elbow injury at the end of 2020 and opted to NOT have a second TJ surgery (which he may need). I still like Lamet, but during two years in San Diego he has gone from “ACE” to “Mop-up man”. I wish him well in MIL, but didn’t see him helping the Padres this season……
@darkstar61 That’s this year’s stats. Hader is a proven All-Star caliber closer. Something any playoff contender would want. While the Brewers got a decent return, I actually think they could’ve done a lot better elsewhere.
Yeah, agreed. Don’t understand this one at all. And as a Pirates fan, I have to laugh at folks who are commenting that the Brewers are prioritizing a youth movement because the Pirates’ (and Reds’) farm systems are on the cusp of producing winning teams. That kind of logic just doesn’t hold up in the real world of teams competing in the here and now
Correct, and the rest of the season will be played this year
I get they could have gotten a bigger haul elsewhere – but could they while getting a replacement closer that may mean little difference in the current club?
And while Lamet does have issues, his upside is still unbelievable – that may be enticing to another club if another deal is in the works
Just seems it may be a very clever move by Milwaukee
Meanwhile, the Padres will have to hope their new closer rebounds
@darkstar61 It’s a gutsy move with some potential upside. I give the Brewers credit there. That being said, I don’t like it when you’re going for a playoff run. Rogers and Hader had similar seasons, but in a playoff situation, my money is still on Hader. So we’ll see.
You have to weigh the AS team against the most recent outings.
Lamet’s upside? He hasn’t been good since he came back recently and he’s already hitting ARB 3 next season, so even if they keep him one more year, then he hits FA anyway. Yes, Lamet used to be good, but he’s blah now
Isnt Lamet French for lame?
Amen tired.You and I will believe it only when we see it.
Lamet is already 30 years old with a boatload of injuries and literally a 10.00 ERA this year. And everyone talks about his one good year, it was TWELVE starts that’s it, every other year his ERA has been above 4.
Not at all. Hader, when on his game, is ELITE could possibly be the best in the game. Padres got a stud here and they know it! Simply put, it’s a downgrade for the brewers, without a doubt!
Moneyballer, AGREE! I like Taylor Rogers, but he is a location, movement, finesse closer. He can’t bring the HEAT like Josh Hader can.
He had one single game where he gave up 6 runs that added 1.5 or something to his ERA. He is elite. Better than T-Rog
Very 1st time pitching to Severino as his catcher ever. .1IP 6ER 3HRs. Not 1 slider thrown. Remove that game he’s just 1 small good stretch to having the numbers you expect from Hader.
Hader has given up runs in 6 of his 11 July appearances, and allowed 2 or more baserunners in 7 of them.
4 of the games allowing a run and 5 of the multi runner games have come against the Pirates, Cubs and Rockies away from Coors
It is not 1 game, and there may actually be something seriously wrong with him
Could also be stuff going on in his personal life? Rumors and baby probably have added to his struggles is my guess. Nothing has changed with velocity and that park will only help him vs pitching in Milwaukee.
Hader’s wife gave birth on June 15th after having some problems in her pregnancy in late-May. Through the end of May he had a 0.00 ERA and 18 saves in 18 games.
DarkStar
An era of 4.24 in Milwaukee is not as bad as an era of 4.35 in San Diego. Despite their great starting pitching, Milwaukee plays in a hitter’s park, San Diego plays in a pitcher’s park. Ask Avisail Garcia.
The full season ERAs don’t tell the whole story. Hader got roughed up in back to back games against the Twins and Giants giving up 9 ERs in 0.1 innings. Jumping his ERA up from below 2 to above 4. Rogers has a similar story dominating out of the gate then struggling since the end of May but Hader appears to have corrected it while Rogers continues to have issues.
That’s not how things works. Hader has been dominant but then hit a rough stretch. Relievers can have their ERAs explode over a couple of bad weeks. I very much doubt the Padres are worried about Hader.
I think it’s a good deal for the Brewers. It’s difficult to judge either Hader or Rogers this year. Hader’s ERA is up, but so is his BABIP (.306 vs .236) despite his exit velocity and hard hit % being right in line with his career averages. His K/9 and BB/9 are almost dead on with his career averages as well. So stats-wise, at least on the surface, he’s been pretty much the same pitcher as always.
Rogers is the same story in that he’s been better than his ERA says he has. His K/9 is down from last year (though it is in line with his career averages) but virtually everything else is the same or similar to last year (WHIP, FIP, BB/9, EV, etc).
All told, the Padres got the better reliever (one with elite potential), but the Brewers got a very fine reliever, plus another arm as well as some good prospects. Edge goes to the Brewers, imo, but the Padres did well here if they’re really trying to win it all this year.
Had is elite now
Rogers has been tough to watch the past 6 weeks. Never has an easy 9th. Will have a guy 0-2 then hit him in the foot or 0-2 and then leave a slider over the plate. Go watch replays of the Tiger’s series. Saw a game against the Giants. Comes in the 9th. First batter has 0-2 then hits him in the foot with a crappy slider. Steals second. Crawford brings him in. No bueno. Melvin has lost confidence in him, so even if he pans out in Milwaukee, he wasn’t going to close in SD. Also, he’s a FA at the end of the year, and the Padres weren’t going to resign him. Plus Padres needed the 40 man spots for when Tatis, Suarez, Johnson and Pomeranz return.
Rogers has looked terrible. Lamet was elite, now he’s a situational middle reliever at best. The two prospects, name the last Padres prospect to be an impact player? Joe Ross or Trea Turner? Who else, anyone?
Tatis was traded from the White Sox.
WOW! Nice! Hope they take out Los Karens in that division now!
For Hader to be an asset, this still requires the Padres to be in front of the Dodgers in the 9th inning. Doh!
Maybe the Crew gets Campusano in this deal as well?
Nope, but Gasser and Ruiz have future potential. Hoping they can fix Lamet, as well… SD loved him. Let’s go Pads!
It’s cool that San Diego loved Lamet, enough to get rid of him that is, but he is HORRIBLE.
Not to mention Lamet is horrendous.
@ positively: I think that’s a bit of a stretch that they’ll send Campusano as well. Good try though.
I posted before the total deal was announced. All it said was Bader to SD, “more to come.” I haven’t been able to respond since because AT&T has been down since then. Don’t know what “nice try” means though. We’re just talking ball here. Relax and enjoy the conversation…
@positively LOL. Ok Miss Momma, maybe take a bit of your own advice and relax and enjoy the conversation yourself because that’s pretty much what I’m doing. I wasn’t trying to insult your intelligence or stir anything by saying “nice try”, but the fact that I have to explain it to you does tell me everything I need to know about that. It was meant as in, sure it would of been a nice pick up for the Brewers to have gotten Campusano in the trade, but it was a bit of a reach that he would of been included in that deal. It’s like saying I hope Soto is traded for Eric Hosmer straight up. Yeah it’s wishful thinking and a lot more extreme than what you suggested, however the point is the same. It’s a nice try, I like the way you think, however it’s not likely to happen. Hopefully that clears things up for you Miss Momma.
We could do Myers and Hosmer for Soto. With Gore as the main target and Campusano.
and the dam bursts!
Wow
That guy who keeps commenting about Lamet to Milwaukee is about to be real excited about this
Stubby! Probably had a heart attack, or pounding his head against the wall cuz MKE didn’t also get Wil Myers in the deal..could go either way.
oh
Hader always get lit up by the dodgers
He got rocked by SF recently too. Welcome to the NL west.
It’s getting hot whoa!!
Well alrighty then. I did NOT see that coming.
watch it be for Musgrove +
Confirmed: one Musgrove 44 jersey included.
washed?
Game worn and dirty… but fine, we’ll throw in a bucket of Tide, too! You drive a hard bargain.
They gave him away for nothing!!!!!
Yeah, this is great news for the Cards. Rogers is bad… really bad and the Brewers didn’t even get one of the Padres top prospects. Stearns is really bad at his job.
@bryzzo – and yet they’re in first place. He’s awful.
Rogers is not even close to being ‘bad… really bad’. Look beyond his ERA and you’ll see. His advanced stats show him to be similar to the rest of his career.
“Really bad at his job”. There it is. The dumbest thing I’ll read all day. Congratulations, you win.
Bryzzo
I think the correct answer is that Stearns was very good at his job until this deal. Rogers will be worse going from friendly confines of San Diego to hitter’s haven in Milwaukee. Ruiz is not a big upgrade on Frelick. They are decreasing their odds of a post-season run, but this trade does not override his entire tenure.
Brewers should have waited to off-season to trade Hader even if the haul was less.
Imagine the haul that Stearns woulda got if he traded Hader last winter! WOW! He knew the next two years that Hader was gonna become much more expensive, instead he sells low and doesn’t even get even ONE of San Diego’s top prospects.
I wouldn’t bring up the Cubs. Just from 2015-2020 the Cubs accomplished more than the Brewers ever have. 5 straight post seasons including 3 straight NLCS and a ring in the bank. Just 2 years later, they have already rebuilt a top 7 farm system (before adding even more to it in the next 24 hours) and have PLENTY of money to spend moving forward. I’m very happy with the direction of the Cubs front office.
Stearns knew last winter how expensive Hader was about to get over the next two years. He shoulda traded him then instead of selling LOW on him now. Either way, it’s still a bad look for a team in a pennant race.
But maybe Stearns didn’t know how Williams would look after his reckless injury last September (when he punched a wall)? Now that there’s a strong sample size to show that Williams is still a stud, perhaps he felt more comfortable dealing Hader?
Wrong in so many ways! 1. They gave 4 good players for him. 2. Hader is set to make a bunch of money. That on top of musgroves extension and padres are done for. 3. Hader sucks and has had one of the worst months era wise of his career. Blowout good trade for Milwaukee!
Keep telling yourself whatever makes you sleep better at night, Nicky! Ideally this is a solid trade for both clubs and only time will tell.
How can it be a solid trade now and time will tell? U are of more than one mind.
Stearns is incredibly good at his job. Strange take.
Yeah, we all heard the Grisham/Lauer trade was bad from the Brewers perspective at first too. Not so much now. Thornburg/Shaw we all thought was one-sided turned out pretty well for the Crew. Adamas trade last year was pretty decent. On and on. Pretty good success rate for Mr. Stearns so far.
Who said the Grisham/Davies for Urias/Lauer trade was bad? I think most people thought it was a good deal, sure some people always say it’s bad, but most people thought it was a good gamble. This trade, however, sucks
A lot of Brewers fans thought Grisham would be patrolling CF for foreseeable future. More than half of the comments on social media, and this site, ripped Stearns apart for trading a “perennial All-Star” for an underachiever in Lauer and lottery ticket in Urias.
Nobody seems to be acknowledging that Hader is getting expensive after years of heavy workloads. The Brewers likely squeezed out the best innings from Hader. They took on risk for 2022 because Rogers is not Hader right now, but they’ve got Williams in their bullpen already. And they have an uncanny ability to get the most out of pitchers, so maybe they’ll return Rogers to form and get Lamet back on track. I think this is an excellent trade for Milwaukee. They ignored their emotions and made the most rational decision they could. This is what Tampa Bay has done so well for so many years.
Padres can always be counted on for drama at the deadline.
WOW! Rogers is a bum! For a team that’s NEVER won a ring, why give up your stud closer in the middle of a pennant race?! They didn’t even get one of the Pads best prospects. CRAZY!
Hader sucks. Read above^
Haha, Milwaukee fans were all over Twitter in June saying Hader was “the best reliever in MLB history” but after 5 rough outings he “sucks”? For a team that’s never won a ring… ever, they shouldn’t be punting in the middle of a pennant chase. If you hated Hader, you are really not gonna like Rogers. Milwaukee couldn’t even get one of the Pads top prospects in the deal. Preller with another fleece job.
Please link to all the other “fleece jobs” Preller has pulled off recently.
Lol. He has one bad month….
Because they have Devin Williams and he will be the new closer.
Is this the real world?
And that’s all? Wow, SD got a nice deal here.
Depends on if they get 2021-&-earlier Hader or 2022 hader going forward
The Crew is gonna flip those dudes from SD for Soto. Hader has been off the last five games. Devon Williams has been lights out
LOL who do you think they have – including this crop from SD – that Washington would go “wow this tops all other offers” for??
He is joking, they are not in on Soto. Milwaukee has one of the worst farm systems in the game. They are also cheap. They just traded Hader because he was “too expensive” in the middle of a pennant chase. For a franchise that’s NEVER won a ring, this is bad.
Lol, you’re joking right?
That packaging is waaaaaaay too light.
What the heck? What is happening? Is this real? Is life real? Am I real?
Wow this is shocking for a first place team to trade their dominant closer.
Taylor Rogers hasn’t been very good lately.
Neither has hader
Wow.Hader has been roughed up some lately but I never saw this coming.Hot stove baby!
Unless the brewers are flipping these guys …are they throwing in the towel…and here we go boys the stove is heating up fast!!
Like I said, the Padres get Hader and Soto. This isn’t hard people.
Doesn’t shipping out Ruiz and Gasser make it less likely they get Soto?
I hope I’m wrong and AJ does love to sh away prospects but they can’t sell all their top prospects in 1 day.
Gasser and Ruiz wouldn’t be the guys traded for Soto. It would be more like Gore, Abrams, Hassell, Campusano etc.
If that happens (also acquiring Soto), they’ll likely have to ship out Hosmer plus prospects too, where does that leave the farm system?
traded for a bunch of trash maybe. not fond of all we gave up for hader.
Why would they ship out Hosmer in a Soto deal? You think the Nationals want another bad contract?
Not saying Hosmer will be part of the Nationals deal. General payroll issues. Can’t be adding all that payroll without some of that flowing back out. They may not mind going over in 2022, but doubt that they’ll be okay going over in 2023 also. At some point you have to address Hosmer and/or Myers, and to do that you’ll need to latch on prospects.
Doubtful considering they sent two of the potential soto trade pieces to Milwaukee now. Unless they include hader in the deal too but I don’t see that happening since sd sent their closer also
These guys aren’t trade pieces for Soto. That’s Abrams, Hassell, Gore, Wood, Campusano etc.
None of those traded would’ve been in the Soto deal.
Doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Padres have been trying to ship out payroll for a while. Taking on the remaining $4M or so for Hader this year and roughly $16M next year seems like an odd move.
Look for some payroll to be shipped out with prospects in the near future. Maybe to the Red Sox? Or they’ll trade him in the off-season.
They shipped some payroll out with Lamet/Rogers, although Minnesota had sent them money for Rogers so not sure if they just send that money to Milwaukee now or what happens with that. Would be curious to see how that part of the finances works.
I don’t think the Hader money next year is that big of a deal, it’s about staying under the tax this year more than anything.
Fair enough. Details weren’t out on the return when I first commented. Getting actual roster players helps the Pads with this.
What a weird trade.
I think they are gonna attach Hosmer + legit prospects in a deal to get Contreras and possibly Happ from Chicago. That will upgrade their current roster AND get them below the luxury tax threshold.
“Shipping out payroll” has always been fake news perpetuated by the Twitter bots.
You know teams have shipped out payroll since before Twitter right? How young are you?
For better understanding and clarification, Nightingale and the other Twitter bots are the only ones to perpetuate the Pads are trimming payroll in ’22 schtick. Hope this helps your understanding the situation better.
I’d take Rodgers over Hader at this point, plus prospects. Time will tell, but I like the Brewers in this one.
Hahaha… NO. Hader has had a bad few outings, Rogers has been awful all year. He’s not a closer, that’s why SD got rid of him. Milwaukee didn’t even get any of the top SD prospects in return. Stearns once again wet himself.
Rogers hasn’t been awful all year, he was stellar first 2 months of season. Not so great in June and July (6 blown saves). It’s been a month since he threw a clean inning. The Pads lost all confidence in him
After his last blown save Rogers said something to the effect of “I’m still doing a damn good job.” I try not to psychoanalyze players, since what the hell do I know, but that may have rubbed some of his teammates wrong. Even if he was trying to keep his own confidence up, it might have been smarter to say “I need to be better. Stop hanging sliders and missing location with the fastball when I’m ahead in the count.”
The Pads still need hitting, desperately. Fangraphs has been running a Replacement Level Killers series recently, and SD players can be found at 1b, CF, RF, and DH.
Yeah I wonder if that caught the ire of Melvin as well. Not the best for chemistry down the stretch
yes, I find it curious that Rogers has FIP under 2.50 this year and last, while his ERA is considerably higher. Two full runs higher than FIP at time of the trade. Rogers has limited homers very well, unlike Hader, which is presumably affected some by his home park.
Hader has awesome stuff but he may not be that much more effective than Rogers.
As a Cardinal fan, this pleases me.
Joke of a deal, why do GMs even answer Preller’s calls? This is an egregiously bad return. And Lamet and the others will probably be damaged goods, Preller loves to trade away hurt players and hide medical records.
I like that opposing fans think preller is the lex Luther of GMs.
Lol lol. Great job. That got me laughing.
Lamet will get hurt coming off the plane to Wisc
You’re an idiot
Whoa!!’ Let’s get this party started!
Surprised. Thought it would be for offense.
Nice! I think AJ has a couple more rounds in the chamber. Ruiz is a good kid. I think the Brew Crew has some upside…
Closer on a small market team who was about to get too expensive as his control dwindled… oh and devin Williams…. don’t like the return but I knew hader was going in the near future (thought offseason) crew can’t have a 15 mil closer.
Padres dumping Lamet to get under the tax?
Hader makes the same as Lamet and Roger combined.
Padres dumping Lamet because he’s already 30 and no good.
This ^^^
And already ARB 3 next year
This I would think takes them out of the Sosa sweepstake. Wonder if that means they are more interested in Joey Gallo now?
Scammin’ Sammy Sosa?
You couldn’t swap Chapman for a tube of Chap Stick.
No it doesn’t, the guys they traded wouldn’t be in a Soto trade anyway
And the hot stove started warming up.
Nooo, I just got a hader shirt as well
Dumb considering he SUCKS!
Now that’s blockbuster!
Wow how the mighty have fallen. This is a typical trade. Hader is no good player. This is an everyday transaction
Is Al Avila in Milwaukee?
Do not wish that on another American city. Not even in a joking fashion.
Such a terrible thing to contemplate. Truly horrific.
Why????
Gotta believe Soto is coming next for Padres. May as well go all in.
The trades are finally starting to pick up. I was starting to think that there wasn’t going to be much action.
Ruiz was the Padres 28th ranked prospect…. not top 10. WTF?
Probably looking at the wrong list there.
MLB still has him at 28, but most of the rankings have moved him WAY up after hitting .344 with almost as many walks as Ks, 28 extra base hits, and 37 steals in 49 AA games. I still don’t think he’s the kind of prospect they could have gotten in a Hader trade, but it’s better than that pipeline #28 makes it look.
Padres have another Ruiz. Esteury is not the one who was ranked 28th
think i was thinking of someone else.
Yeah he was. Agustin is ranked above him at 23 on MLB Pipeline.
Nope, it’s Esteury. While he’s had a nice start to his MLB career, he’s not considered a top tier prospect
Well, Stubby was pining for Lamet.
Great deal for the Brew Crew. Interesting that both closers are struggling at the moment. Got a feeling Hader has seen his best days.
He’s only had 2 bad outings all year, granted they were really, really bad. With that said, he is just one relief pitcher. I think the Brewers made out well.
Could this be posturing for another move?
He’s looked good since the break. He may have seen his best days but that doesn’t mean he still can’t be much better than most of the rest.
Devin Williams will be a lockdown closer. Brewers won’t miss a beat. Still though. Seems a little light
Josh Hader & Tim Hill on the same team? Freaky Friday situation!
Now, if we could just get their triplet Matt Strahm back…
Maybe the Brewers just really like Robert Gasser? Is he related to former Wisconsin Badgers basketball standout Josh Gasser?
3rd cousin from his step-aunt.
Hader is amazing. Wish the Yankees would’ve got him
Effross has better stats across the board this year.
True, but in lower leverage situations.
Hader sucks
At least Hader didn’t land w. the Dodgers or Yankees. The $$ side will be interesting come this off-season, but for right now, SD is going for it.
They got a big ol’ hole in the OF.
That hole covers the right field line to the left-center gap.
I wonder if Grisham is having eye problems. The offensive problems are bad, but he’s been a terrific defender before this year for San Diego. Now it’s a dang adventure out there all too often.
If Rodgers pulls out of his slight slump, just like Hader, Looks OK!
Wow. Very surprised how light the return is. Like Gasser. But surprised that’s all Hader gets you. Looks a little like a panic sell by Brewers. AJ strikes again. And none of the prospects necessary for a Soto trade involved.
“AJ strikes again”?!?!? You might want to read up on how some of his other trades for big name pitchers have panned out.
Honestly surprised about this, massive get for the Padres and they got a really good deal for him too
I think the Pads gave up on Lamet finally, and Rogers to some degree also. Ruiz and Gasser are excellent prospects though, and Ruiz is MLB ready – in AAA this year (291 ABs) he hit 333 with OPS 1.028, 13 HRs and an incredible 60 SBs.
Preller’s a scout, first and foremost. My guess is he ignored the stat line, instead believing that Ruiz’s pitch recognition and swing/miss issues make him unsuited as a major league starter. Could still be useful in a bench role, especially if he cleans up his outfield defense.
That’s a lot of equity for a relief pitcher. Great haul by Milwaukee.
great comment/points.
say what you will about the padres they are consistently the worst team in their division but they make moves
Worst in division??? Um, ok….lol
6 bottom 2 division finishes in the last 10 years statistically accurate
Wouldn’t the “worst” team in a division be bottom-one, not bottom-two? (Since we’re being mathematically accurate…)
So Tatis is not coming back this year? What a disappointment.
Tatis starts a rehab assignment this weekend
Don’t think the jays or Yankees were in on him due to vax status.
Ala Bill Maher I don’t know it for a fact but I know it to be true.
Awesome move….by the Brewers!
Dayammm. Why couldn’t Cashman swap Chapman for this cat? Don’t be such a Hader!!!
Mmmm, because the Brewers would have absolutely zero interest in Chapman?
Amazing that you find the time to post with you bizzy GM job
I’d be shocked if Rogers closes over Williams. But still great move by both teams imo. I’m not a huge fan of any of the prospects the Brewers got, but worth taking a chance on them.
crazy.
Giants ruined his stats this season though haha
This does little to help the Padres biggest problem…offensive mediocrity…guess that lies on Tatis’ shoulders…
Wow. Totally unexpected. Very gutsy by the Brewer front office. But I have been so impressed with this management in the past that I expect this trade to work out for the team also. This is the type of move that could be part of more moves very soon.
A team in the pennant race, that has NEVER won a ring, is more concerned about saving money than trying to compete. Rogers is washed. Has been. Hader had a handful of bad outings. As recently as June, Brewer fans were saying he was the “best reliever of all time”. They should of at least got one of SD’s top 5 prospects in the deal. Milwaukee has an embarrassingly weak farm system. This deal won’t help it much and they just handed the division to the Cards. Brewer fans deserve better.
I’m not even halfway through the comments and this is like the 8th mention of MKE having never won a ring. We all know this, and contrary to what you insist to be true, it has no bearing on this trade. Is it ideal? Maybe not, but maybe there’s more going on than your theory that they’re giving up.
1. Hader has struggled recently. Partly, perhaps, due to health concerns with his wife and/or newborn. Simply having a newborn can be stressful enough. The Brewers know more about his mental, emotional and physical health than we do. Any of them could be a factor in moving him now rather than the off-season.
2. It might be the first domino of multiple other trade possibilities. Time will tell.
3. Williams probably takes over as closer. He’s been pretty good too, and better of late than Hader.
4. How many people swore SD won the Urias/Lauer for Davies/Grisham deal the day it went down? I don’t think the feeling is so strong now. Yeah, Davies helped get Darvish, but SD still hasn’t won anything more than MKE has.
5. Not really sure a cubs fan, with its current situation, is the right person to be questioning another team’s GM, or their trades.
6. In the time it took me to type this, you probably mentioned how the Brewers have never won anything at least 6 more times. Just a(nother) friendly reminder..its still irrelevant.
Cards aren’t going anywhere unless they add at least 2 quality starting pitchers.
This is a bad trade guys.
You can’t tell on the day of a trade. You have to wait and see how the involved players perform. But on paper this looks like a bad trade for the Padres, not the Brewers. Do you know what Hader’s bWAR is this year? 0.0
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/haderjo01.shtml
This looks like another Preller shoot first think later move. He’ll continue to deplete the Padre farm system until they no longer have any meaningful trade chips. Win at all costs now.
Pretty sure fans of (insert team), would love for their front office to be win at all costs. Too many wait and sees with prospects. Go for the gusto!
Not me. I’d rather have sustainable runs and be consistently good rather than one or two seasons of some kind of success and many years of not being relevant. It’s one thing to go for it, but you never gamble the future of your team, especially for one or two players. Winning the WS is always a crapshoot. You may go all-in and come away with nothing. All that while jeopardizing the future. I prefer getting pieces and always being in the run for the WS. I know some Dodger fans disagree. They’ll say stupid stuff when a big contract is out there. It’s not my money why should I care? That’s usually the stupid fans talking.
Big market teams flip prospects all the time and still compete. You need you g guys to offset salary, but typically also need those flips for established guys. The key is to replenish the farm.
Preller’s teams never win though. He trades any chance for long term success to win now, but misses the win now thing.
Hader is not having a great year by his standards if the metrics are meaningful. His ERA+ has plummeted from 341 last year to 97, by far the lowest of his career, and Fangraphs puts 57 qualified relievers above him in fWAR.
This seems like a helluva haul for the Brewskis. Taylor Rogers has a 2.35 FIP compared to Hader’s 3.47, and there are only seven qualified relievers with a higher fWAR than Rogers — plus, they’re getting Lamet, Gasser and Ruiz.
Does this make sense?
Before the All-Star break, Hader’s name was mentioned in Cy Young talk. He was untouchable. Then he started sucking for a few outings and has been better in his last few. Brewers are used to this as Hader can be streaky, but it’s a bit premature to talk about him “not having a great year.” He is a great pitcher. Time will tell who won this trade, but Padres fans are celebrating for good reason.
Padres fans, like many fans around the nation, celebrate big names without consulting much in the way of stats. B-Ref taxes Hader with -0.1 Wins Above Average this year. He’s never been in the negative range in a previous season.
Fink, that is funny. You are trying to use WAR for a partial season for a reliever? Hilarious. Have you tried stand up?
i’m a Padres fan. and i’m definitely NOT celebrating.
Those numbers are skewed by July; Hader didn’t give up his first run of the season until his 20th appearance on June 7. He had only given up 4 hits until then.
In July, he went off the rails a bit. Now, is his July performance more indicative of his performance or the 3 months prior? It’s an impossible question to answer until the future plays out.
But aggregated metrics for relief pitchers are often unreliable because they just don’t have enough innings there for the blips to even out.
Rogers has more blown saves, but he’s given up only one home run to Hader’s seven. Petco is a harder place to hit one out, but, on the other hand, Rogers pitches in a stronger division. Hader’s ERA vs. WP >= .500 teams is 6.23. Rogers’ ERA vs. WP >= .500 teams is 4.05.
Goes to show you how you cannot rely on a season’s worth of stats for a reliever. Only the true elite relievers are able to put up more consistent stats on an every seasons basis. Also shows you how much smaller the impact they have over a season of 162 and playoffs. A few outings can completely impact stats. Hader is obviously a great talent and one of the elite ones. But stats can show you that over a season you can come closer to replicating him for a much cheaper price. Much more difficult to replicate a starting pitching over the course of a season.
Hader was bad last July. 0 for 6 in save chances, with something like a 6.2 ERA (don’t quote me on the ERA). He finished the season without allowing a run.
Not saying it’s a guarantee history repeats itself, but it’s at least possible. Also, he was lights out for the first 3 months of this season. And if memory serves he’s like a 3 time reliever of the year, which gives more hope that he’ll rebound and finish strong.
His new park should help, but the distinction between him and Rogers (Hader has 29 saves, Rogers has 28) doesn’t look to me like it justifies the additional cost of three other players. Well see how Hader fares against lineups like the Dodgers’. His ERA against the Giants this year is 162.00 (that’s not a typo).
So you think the Brewers would give up Hader, who has another year before FA, for Rogers, who is going to be a FA, and not make SD throw in more? Why would the Brewers ever take a lesser reliever on an expiring contract for a better player with a year left on his deal?
Do you watch Brewers games? Hader has been dominant before a really bad stretch recently. Closers can have their numbers implode because of a bad few weeks. Hader is still Hader
When I saw Lamet was included, I immediately thought, nice get. If he can regain a fraction of what he had, this could be a nice addition to the rotation or bullpen. A change a scenery could be exactly what he needs. Several years ago, Padres would have balked at dealing him – he was their ACE! Just a few seasons and injuries later and he’s simply a toss in piece. Seems like a mistake. Hopefully the brewers can resurrect his career!
Does everyone forget WHY Lamet was in the bullpen as opposed to the Padres #1 or #2 starter? Arm injury at the end of 2020. Forearm strain every time he tried to start since then. He has a partial tear on his second UCL.
Many believe that the only way Lamet resurrects his career is to go with doctors recommendations for surgical repair. But he’s strongly resisted the knife (fear?).
Lamet is already ARB 3 next year, and he’s always hurt, and not very good this season
Ruiz is a top ten prospect?
It just shows how much talent has left the Padres in trades over the last few years. Preller could give a crap about prospect ratings, he’ll deal anyone! In fact, he uses them to his benefit. A padres top 10 prospect could struggle to make a stocked teams top 30!
#26 after not being top 30 to start the yr..should at least be a solid 4th OFer..
As a Padres fan I love this trade…Hader is the best closer in the game and Padres best since Trevor
As a Brew fan..if Rogers finds IT..(his ERA is like 10+ since June (2 months).. he will help.. but i would let Williams close and let Rogers set up to “earn it”…Lamet has been hot and cold..has been sent to the minors a few times but his nasty slider has looked unhittable lately…may pay dividens or be DFA candidate … Gasser is a solid mid rotation arm..last time you got one of those from us He did well (Lauer)
In response to Padres acquiring Hader, the Los Angeles Dodgers swing a deal with the Red Sox to re-acquire Enrique “Hader’s daddy” Hernandez. lol
What a great image of how these two organizations are run.
The Brewers, getting every ounce of life from a lights out, controllable, young, bullpen piece. Riding him to multiple playoff appearances. Trading him at the first hint of downfall instead of falling in love with the player/ name.
All they needed was someone willing to pay them for the Josh Hader of years past, someone in love with making a big splash thinking it will someday lead to success.
Enter AJ Preller.
The End.
Man I hope you aren’t as sad and unhappy in real life as you appear to be in your posts dude.
I say this not to be mean or rude but man you’re filled with a lot of doom gloom and one of the worst pessimistic attitudes I’ve seen. Whole bunch of negativity.
Maybe go outside little bit more
Hit the gym go for a walk
Do some meet ups make some friends
Get on some dating apps meet a woman or a man whatever you’re into
Find some hobbies extracurricular activities after work.
Try to find some joy and happiness in life. Take care of yourself physically and mentally. You’ll thank yourself later
Instead of an irrelevant, contrived ad hominem attack on the poster, how about responding rationally to his points?
Hey Fink!
Just wanted to say that I took Jung’s post almost the other way around. It’s worded respectfully throughout and they’re just trying to give helpful words to another. I did the same thing with CapnJudge on the Rays Need Catching Help post. The dude really sounded miserable and I tried helping his perspective out with some advice. Besides, we’re all adult-ish here and everybody should have a pseudo-protective membrane when it comes to “online chat”… helpful words here and there just might change somebody for their own benefit, if only for a fleeting moment. Hope you’re doing as well as your Yanks and still hope to meet for the Piece of Metal! People might bash the Pads methods but it can’t be denied that they’re doing their best to try to compete. Cheers amigo
Brewers with a steal here. Ruiz is the best player in this trade and Williams is a better closer than Hader. Add Gasser and Rogers, you have a huge win.
Rogers gets a chance at the setup role and move Williams to closer. Possible Rogers can rebound not having the pressure of closing. This is a good move by the Brewers.
Where are you seeing that Ruiz is highly regarded? MLB.com has him as the Padres’ #28.
And just because Williams is great doesn’t make this a better deal. The Brewers aren’t acquiring Williams. They need to replace Hader, and this deal makes their bullpen worse right now.
the Padres had 2 Ruiz’
They did, but this one was 28 on Pipeline. Other was 23.
I think Ruiz was decently thought of until he started to show very troubling contact issues.
Sure sure, 🙂
Lol…its hilarious to see all the same Padres fans who were so excited to acquire Rogers last winter now completely punting on him after what 4 months….this is the reason the Padres hv never won a WS!! This is very likely to be a rarity among deadline trades, equally good for both teams…better in the short term for Padres but in the longterm very promising for Milwaukee! Also after 2020 theres not a soul in San Diego who would hv dealt Lamet who looked to be better even than Gore, so lets watch how the Padres screw up Gore next!!! Milwaukee makes the playoffs almost every year, even with a luxury tax payroll thats almost dbl the Brewers’, the Padres didnt last year, and yet their fans want to roll their eyes???
We can’t be excited for an upgrade, clear necessary 40 Man room by removing Lamet’s cooked noodle and retool the Pen before a playoff push? Put down the Haderade!
cool. celebrate. i for one wouldn’t be shocked if lamet, rogers, or both are better moving forward than Hader. oh yeah… and we gave up Ruiz & Gasser too. YAY.
Hey AJ, I get it. All trades suck because you lose players you “like” but you have to give to get. This move works for many reasons: backend Pen upgrade for this year and next whilst clearing 40 room. Rogers wasn’t going to be retained beyond ’22, stick a fork in Lamet, Ruiz is valuable, promising and the true “get” here but Gasser was always a lottery ticket. We just got better for this year and next and that is the underlying principle here.
gwynning. you hope. i hope. but at best i call it a wash. rogers has had a better year by underlying stats.
Where are the Padres coming up with the kind of money to pay for a $17 million closer? San Diego is not the Los Angeles or New York markets. I don’t see how they can sustain a Yankees or Dodgers payroll.
How does Preller keep getting ownership to sign off? He has them at the limit and still getting their ass kicked by the Dodgers regularly. At some point doesn’t ownership tell him to win or GTFO?
He’s only 11M this year, and while it will jump next season, they’re not tied to him. Could be traded, but doesn’t have to be. They have 140-ish committed for next season (160+ for the luxury tax calculation), which includes Musgrove’s new deal and the options for Martinez and Suarez.
It’s not how I’d choose to allocate resources, but there’s room to fit both Hader and, please please please, Soto without paying the luxury tax.
I might need to be talked down from the ledge on this one. I’ve been open to trading Hader for a while, but this seems like odd timing and the wrong return.
I keep seeing people using Hader’s ERA as justification for trading him. He was unhurt able except for a 2-3 week stretch when he was absolutely awful. That 2-3 weeks is the entirety of his ERA. Rogers isn’t close to Hader.
Lamet is 30. He’s yet to really do anything.
Two prospects, but neither exciting. One with a back of the rotation ceiling and another who is an outfielder. Other than getting CF help this year (can he possibly be that?), the Brewers are flush with outfield prospects.
I get that Hader’s salary is going to go up, but this deal doesn’t make the Brewers better right now, in a playoff race, and doesn’t noticeably make them better for the future. You could still trade him in the off-season, so why now? For this return?
I see lots of people talking themselves into this, but unless there’s something I’m missing on the prospects (I don’t know much), GTFOH if you think Rogers and Lamet are a good return.
Jesus, I hate autocorrect. Hader was “unhittable.”
Gasser might crack your rotation in a couple years, but Ruiz can fill any OF cracks starting now. Solid AAA season forced our hand to bring him up “early” for a showcase, but Ruiz’s real value starts next year. Good luck to all involved!!
Gwynning you’re a true pro, man. Love your attitude. Thnx for contributing on this board.
Thanks man, back at ya! *mug tap*
Ruiz will probably be their starting Center Fielder. Which the Brew Crew desperately needs
Will he though? What evidence is there that he’ll be better than what they have for this season?
None. But his gaudy AA numbers this year could at least give him a look over the struggling Taylor who’s only been good for the occasional bomb lately or Davis who’s a career AAAA player.
Man feels like such a light return for Hader. Almost unimaginable last couple years.
Rodgers and Hader both could use a change of scenery. Wishing Rodgers and Lamet the best.
Wow seems like an over pay
As trash as the padres offense is the bullpen has been even worse. That being said I feel like preller could have gotten another decent closer both cheaper in terms of prospects and money. Not every trade needs to swing for the fences.
This trade is bananas from each side! I can see why both sides made this trade but I can also argue why it’s so dumb for both sides. Wild! Love it!
Brewers got a lot back plus a closer. I think they win this trade but we will see
Unexpected and makes sense for both sides. I’d be happy if both sides come out looking good here.
Padres get an immediate lock down arm.
Brewers still have a good bullpen, save some coin, and add talent to the farm.
Brewers have Williams to take over as closer now. It was a smart move though not familiar with the prospects. I wonder if they could have gotten more from the Yankees
2022..
Josh Hader 4.24 ERA, 3.47 fIP, 0.6 fWAR
Taylor Rogers 4.35 ERA, 2.35 fIP, 1.3 fWAR
I’ll just leave that there.
You have got to be kidding me, Iv always wanted Josh Hader to be on the Mets. He was their missing piece. They really couldn’t have gotten him? This is a stain on the franchise. The perfect lefty reliever who is arguably the best reliever in baseball right now who can be paired up with Diaz. The Mets dropped the ball
Hoping the Buccos will swap Bednar for some bats, preferably one being at 1B.
What’s wrong with Chavis?
Paul-I Like Chavis but he has settled in at about 240 batting average with little power and that will not cut it for a first baseman.He is also undersized to play there but as you probably know he is a fairly good fielder but who is better suited to play second base.
Feels like a lateral move to give up Lamet and Rodgers for Hader. Yes, in theory Hader is much better than Rogers. IN THEORY. Flip a coin to determine who will have the lower ERA the rest of the way
Donelson Limet and Robert Gasser will be part of the team in 2024. Estueury Ruiz could be the Brewers speedy plus CF. The Brewers gave up a little Hader for Rogers.
Dinelson Lamet was designated for assignment today. He will not be part of the team at all in 2022, let alone 2024.
Ruiz was optioned to Nashville. He is not on the Brewers active roster today.
Gasser was in A+ ball. He has a 50 scouting grade so not likely to be more than a MOR to BOR starter. I wish him all the best. He just wasn’t going to help the Padres in their 3 year window of contention. He was expendable.
Rogers has been simply awful for 2 months. He has an 8.14 ERA over that time period and has given up runs on 13 of 22 appearances. That is not viable as a closer. Or for any reliever that only pitches 1 inning per appearance. He was good for the 1st month for the Padres so I hope that setting up for Williams will allow him to pitch at least ok for the Brewers.
Hader had a 0.00 ERA through his first 18 appearances, through early June. In late May his wife started experiencing serious complications of her pregnancy and then she gave birth on June 15th to their first child. That would mess with any father’s head.
Going into the All Star break Hader had 2 bad games and gave up 9 runs. His ERA went from 1.82 to 4.52 in 2 games. Since then he has given up one run over 5 appearances while striking out 8. Safe to say that the old Hader is back.
There first big move that will amount to nothing.
I see this trade as the Padres have upgraded their stopper in the bullpen right now have control till the end of 2023. If he works out and the Padres get into the playoffs this season it’s a win. But if he doesn’t then he still has marketable trade value. The Padres were disappointed in Rogers lately there was talk of him losing his closer status, Lamet has had arm troubles in the last two three seasons, Ruiz has talent but is he an everyday player in the lineup time will tell and the same with Gasser.. Padres wanted a stopper that has a strong track record and was the best stopper available. I don’t see this as the main Padre deal by the end of the deadline. With Chicago deal for Happ and Contreras, and then maybe the Padres going after Chaffin from Detroit.
I’ve been against the Brewers trading Hader, but now that I see the return that they got I love it. They shouldn’t miss a beat this season with Rogers in the 8th and WIlliams in the 9th, and hopefully with the money saved on Hader they can improve the offense, either now or in the offseason.
Ruiz gives them a guy with several years of control who can get on base and play multiple positions (which the organization really values), and if they can get Lamet back on track he could be a dominant multi-inning arm out of the bullpen.
Gasser seems like more of a lottery ticket but the organization is pretty light on pitching prospects so hopefully he will pan out.
Are you serious? I’m a Brewers fan and I follow other teams’ farm systems. I think this is a terrible trade for MIL. They didn’t get any of Gore, Abrams, Hassell, Wood, Campusano etc. Rogers is a FA after this season, Lamet used to be really promising but is always hurt, hasn’t been good this year, and already hits ARB 3 next year (if they even tender him), Ruiz had a nice start to his MLB career but he’s not considered a big prospect, and Gasser has talent but he doesn’t throw hard and he’s a 23 year old in high A. Yuck
C for MIL. About what I would expect. He has been as good recently so selling low. They got 2 mlb relievers who can be improved. 2 solid prospects with upside. MIL can get more out of them. Hader has a lot of mileage and going to get expensive. Avoid the risk, restock the farm. They will find more relievers.
B possibly for SD. Check him out good. Huge upgrade over Rogers. They had no use for Lamet. The prospects are far from being developed and aren’t a huge loss that will knock them out of the Soto race.
Flipping the grades. Checked my spreads and I like the prospects better than I thought. Win win trade but MIL got some nice prospects. Strong B pushing a A.
People, come ON. Stop using Hader’s and Rogers’ ERAs as justification for this being a good deal. If you think these two are anywhere close to equal, you aren’t watching baseball. Hader had possibly the worst three games of his life. That destroy’s a pitcher’s ERA who throws an inning at a time.
Can you say for sure that Hader will have more success than Rogers?
Is the gap between the two of them that big? Forget the ERA. Just as a baseball fan who know that both pitchers are capable of being extremely nasty. Seems like a lot to give up, when you can easily see Rogers performing better than Hader for these next two months; and that wouldn’t be shocking or even surprising to me.
Remove the worst week of Hader’s career and ask this question again.
Hey, we can go tid for tat with that. Remove the worst few weeks Rogers has ever had. ERA under 3 in late June.
I would rather have Hader than Rogers. For the record. You just seem to be struggling with the reasoning for questioning the trade.
Who knows which one will finish better the rest of the way? If Hader tanks and Rogers flourishes, which is absolutely in play as a possibility; this trade is one of the worst in recent memory.
If Hader has, let’s say a 1.00 ERA better for San Diego than Rogers does in MIL; do you think the trade will have been worth it?
Lend me that crystal ball when you get a chance, bruh
@NW It would be obvious to anyone that has been following both teams.
Rogers has been AWFUL for 2 months. He has given up runs in 17 of his last 22 games back through May 28th. He has an 8.14 ERA over that period with 6 blown saves.
While Hader has an almost as bad 7.08 ERA in his last 22 outings, he has given up runs in just 8 of those games and blown just 2 saves. 9 of those runs were in 2 games just before the All Star game and he has pitched well since then.
Rogers has not pitched well since the ASG. He has a 9.82 ERA in the 3 games he has appeared in since the ASG. He has given up 4 runs in those 3 outings and blown 2 saves.
Good stats my man. Provides me with a different perspective, for sure.
I’d still be willing to take a waterbet on this trade backfiring for SD, though. I don’t feel strongly about any outcome but I think it’s enough of a possibility that I would go for it.
Certainly, it’s ok to question this trade, and certainly it’s ok to compare ERAs.
He has given up runs in 17 of his last 22 games back through May 28th.
====================================
That should be “given up 17 runs in 22 games”. Had he given up runs in 17 different games, it would be impossible to calculate his ERA.
I was incorrect about how many games. Rogers has given up runs in 13 of his last 22 games with 6 blown saves. A total of 19 earned runs in 21 IP. An 8.14 ERA. HORRIBLE.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=rogerta01&t=p&year=2022#340-361-sum:pitching_gamelogs
19 earned runs in 13 games or 19 earned runs in 17 games out of 22 is still possible to calculate his ERA.
MiniWebTool has a good one if you need it. Its free.
https://miniwebtool.com/era-calculator/?runs=19&innings=21
Well, clearly theyre taking a risk on Ruiz being an above average regular outfielder which I think is a great risk and bold move. These types of moves separate good GMs from bad ones
Im sure they are figuring Hader lost life/stuff and now hes afraid of contact. The BB% and H/9 are up from his career norms, a sure sign the pitcher is nibbling and afraid of contact
For the Padres losing Ruiz is huge. This is their #2 prospect outside Hassell. Incredible 99 sprint speed coupled with a chance to ultimately develop a successful hitting approach. Thats rare among all prospects
Potential 120-130 OPS+ gold glove level outfielder with 30-40 SB a year if hes been coached properly how to steal bases
Rogers is a quality middle reliever who really shouldnt have been closing. They can just put Williams into the closer role making Rogers more effective in a middle relief role. Gasser is not likely to pan out. Already 23 and getting somewhat lit up at A+. However in the Brewers system, anything goes. He could develop into an effective reliever given the pitching gurus they have in that system. Lamet doesnt hurt as another depth piece
For the Padres obviously theyre getting Hader, albeit a new Hader that is walking more batters and giving up more hits. Significant drop in BB% and XSlg which usually means the pitcher is not trusting his stuff anymore, which means hes lost stuff, which never comes back
However, that doesnt mean he still cant be dominant given some adjustments. The loss of Ruiz is huge though on a team that needs offense to begin with
Considering it’s essentially Ruiz for Hader, I’d say it’s a win for both teams at this point. Padres get a legitimate closer that they need and the Brewers get a very good prospect that isnt but should be on top 100 prospects lists
Padres are banking on the downside that Ruiz never develops or hits. In this case, theyd be getting Hader ultimately for nothing
Ruiz has the rare potential among prospects to be a well above average 120-130 OPS+ hitter. It’s a safer risk to bank on Ruiz in this case. Brewers already got the best years out of Hader and are probably not worried about losing the downside of his career.
If Ruiz is as good as you’re saying (I know nothing about him), I feel better about this. On the surface, this trade made no sense. Using the prospect rankings on Pipeline, Gasser was SD’s #7 and Ruiz 28. It sounds like Ruiz has jumped a ton since then. If he’s truly SD’s #2, this deal suddenly makes more sense, even if it bites the Brewers for the remainder of this season.
Ruiz isn’t that good. Steals a ton of bags and had a really nice start to his MLB career, but he’s not considered a top prospect at all
Ruiz is not that good. He was #28 in the Padres system for a reason. Ruiz was showcased by the Padres with the hope that some team would see his speed and take a chance on trading for him. He is destined to be a #4 OF.
The Brewers made this trade because Devin Williams has 30 straight outings without giving up a run and deserves to be the closer. Rogers can move out of the high pressure closer position and be his setup man.
The Padres named Ruiz their top prospect of the first half of 2022.
He’s not their #2 prospect. Not at all. He had a great year. If he was their #2, they’d have saved him to pursue Soto, not to get 20-30 innings from a reliever.
He’s not a bad prospect, and he does have a chance to reach the ceiling laid out by Camden453. It’s not a great chance, but it’s well above zero.
Good assessment on Ruiz. Padres must have concluded he likely is nothing more than 4th outfielder.
By the way, here is KC we have been dying as Ruiz suddenly this year looked like the next Soto n AAA. We gave him away in a stupid trade five years ago. With Padres giving up on him, he obviously is not that.
Travis Jankowski would be a good comp.
If he develops Jankowski’s 98th percentile BB% and 98th percentile Chase Rate, which is better than Juan Soto’s, he’ll be a perennial all-star
His career .360 OBP in the minor leagues is a good sign he has some plate discipline. On top of that, there is good power #’s and he stole 60 bases this year at AAA. The fact that he put up a .457 OBP this year at AAA and has 99th percentile sprint speed and hits for power is a promising sign
He probably won’t match Jankowski’s 98th percentile BB% and Chase Rate, but if his chase rate is 75+ percentile he’s going to be very good
This wasn’t a salary dump. The Brewers are *really* high on Ruiz, who should probably be a top 10 overall prospect
@Camden453
Ruiz:”Incredible 99 sprint speed coupled with a chance to develop a solid hitting approach. That’s rare among all prospects.”His tools: 40-Hit, 45-Power, 70-Speed, 45-Arm, 50-Field and he had a .222/.333/.555 line.
Didn’t you also say that Abrams is a terrible prospect in the Juan Soto trade rumors? Abrams tools: 60-Hit, 50-Power, 80-Speed, 55-Arm, 55-Defense and a .232/.320/.605 line. So Abrams has far better tools and better numbers than Ruiz but Ruiz has tons of potential and Abrams sucks?
If you are a Padres hater just say so because your opinions seem to be biased.
Hader has pitched quite well since the ASG and his velocity and movement are unchanged since early in the season. He had a baby in mid-June. That is a much more likely reason for the two bad games he has had this season. Until his wife started having pregnancy complications in late May he had a 0.00 ERA.
Ruiz was ranked 28th in the Padres system by MLB Pipeline and 27th by BA. He was not the #2 prospect the Padres system on any scouting system nor in any way, shape or form. He is just the 9th in a weak Brewers system and the pitching prospect the Brewers got, Gasser, is ranked higher.
Ruiz has a 45 scouting rating. The means below MLB average. His only above average tool is speed. He is not someone that any scout would say has the potential to be a 125-130 OPS+ type hitter.
Still, the Padres will win nothing. They have Manny Machado disease.
if you have something…sell. noelvi++ set the price really high, this is multiple big leaguers for a reliever. sell it all now.
The Brewers made the right move here. No closer not named Rivera is ever worth keeping at any situation. Personally believe the Brewers could have done better. Regardless, the Brewers should go after Soto and flip these guys for him. If there is one team that makes sense for Soto, it’s the Brewers.. not the Yanks, Dodgers, and Padres who are desperate and buy players just to make a splash
If Nats wanted these guys for Soto would SD traded them to MIL?
Not saying the Brewers have better prospects, but have any prospect the Padres traded within the last few years end up being good? For a team who keeps getting praised for their farm, their players are sure not making any noise with the new teams.
David Bednar, Cal Quantrill, Ty France, Jack Suwinski, Taylor Trammell, Josh Naylor.
Oh Andres Munoz. Probably forgetting someone and not counting any prospects who look promising but haven’t made it yet.
Problem with that thinking is those other teams have the resources to get an extension done with Soto. Hard to see the Brewers offering him more (or even as much) as Washington did with Yelich still on the books and Woodruff, Burnes, and Adames all hitting arbitration. So the Brewers would have to offer a hell of a package and then probably end up flipping him again in a year or 2 after paying big arbitration money for a couple years. Not out of the realm of possibility with all the money they have coming off the books, but I can’t see them outbidding the big boys. knowing that they probably won’t lock him up long-term. (Though they’d still get a great return in 2 years when he’s 25 if they look at it that way)
Fair argument but the Brewers are still in a win-now mode and frankly offense is their biggest weakness. They have a chance to win within the next 2 years even if Soto walks. Let him walk, no player is worth 500 mil. No player is worth anything over 100 mil (arbitrary number) honestly but it’s the industry I guess.
Trading for Soto doesn’t have extending him in mind. If the Brewers (or whoever) trades for him and wins a championship in one of the next 3 years what does it matter if he walks after 2024?
I get that, but they’d never let him walk either. Small-market teams can’t afford to just let a guy like that walk. It would be a move to make a run in the next 2 years and then trade him before he hit the open market to get a return on him. I don’t think that’s a terrible move, I just can’t see Milwaukee sending the kind of package it would take to get him to let that scenario play out. That’s not the MO of their front office.
@mikeyst13 Well sure they can. Small market teams let good players walk all the time. Probably even more than they trade the player. If they win a World Series during Soto’s club control years then that is all that matters. And you can completely forget about the acquiring team flipping Soto before he hits the open market. No sir. It’s not going to happen. The team that trades for Soto is trading for him to USE him, not flip him. You aren’t getting back anywhere close to what you gave up to get him if you flip him down the road. The potential championship IS the return you get on Soto.
Milwaukee isn’t sending that kind of package because they don’t have it. Their farm system stinks. But Soto is exactly the type of player they could use to get themselves over the hump while their window is wide open.
I’m waiting for the “Dodgers for the block”
headline.
Dodgers should love this trade. Freeman owns Hader.
I briefly wondered if there was any thoughts by SD at all to make this deal just to be sure LA didn’t get him..but that seems like the dumbest thought process ever for a franchise.
Plus it only does so much to help in catching LA in the standings, or beating them head to head.
If they’d gotten Hader, Burnes, and..Williams I guess (can’t really pick any position player that would be an obvious help) that’s 1 thing. A guy who only helps in the 9th when you’re leading…and you have to get there first.
Hader may very well be a future Hall-of-Famer. As a fan of the crew, I don’t like it. It would be nice if they could keep guys like him. Of course, when you waste a truckload of cash on Yellich, I suppose you they just don’t have the dollars left to pay a real closer like Hader.
MIL fans thought Yelich took a huge home discount.
Yelich is afraid of the middle-in (& up) pitch since fouling one off his knee and breaking the kneecap. That’s why he’s late on fastballs and hiting them weakly on the ground. He’s shown signs of getting past that since moving to the leadoff role. His problems are not physical. He’ll get it back. If he continues to play as he has since being moved to leadoff, his contract is still a bargain.
Since Yelich moved to leadoff on June 8, his OBP is .415 and OPS is .850. Those aren’t his MVP numbers, but they’re damn good.
I know guys occasionally have bad games, but Hader has been getting rocked. Even if you want to exclude his really bad game, he has still allowed 7 ERs in his past 8 innings. Taylor has also hit a hard wall as well. But if they both suck, or both revert back, then SD gave up a lot for a status quo.
Just in two games right before the All Star break. He has given up one run in 4 IP since then and struck out 7 in those 4 innings.
In Hader’s 1st 31 appearances of the season he had a 1.82 ERA. Before become a first time dad in mid-June he had 0.87 ERA.
I think Padres fans can expect him to be somewhere between the un-hittable pitcher he was through mid June and the merely outstanding pitcher he has been in all but those 2 outings in mid-July
That could be, but this could be a Clevinger as well. I get that even unhittable guys goes off the rails. But he’s been scored upon in 6 of his last 10 appearances. Last year, he was scored upon 6x in his 60 appearances. In 2020, it was 4x in 21 appearances.
Rogers as well. But it feels like both GMs agreed to not look too closely at each other medicals. But at the end of the day, be the ever-suspicious accountant, I don’t think Mil just decided to trade their closer simply because they were winning too much.
Always, always look at the motivation.
Hader has been scored upon once in the last 5 appearances now. In 2022 he was scored on ZERO times in his first 18 appearances then his wife had pregnancy complications and had their first child.
Do you remember what you were like in the days leading up to the birth of your 1st and in the week or so after?
Rogers has lost his command. He is tired and it shows.
No GM will EVER “not look too closely at each others medicals”. That is just plain dumb to do and not one of those guys in that job are dumb.
The motivation for the Brewers is money. They got Rogers and then traded for 2 other guys, Rosenthal who will be a FA at the end of the season an Bush who is cheap and under team control for 2 more seasons. Hader will get paid $15 million next season. The Brewers can’t do that for a reliever. They only have one guy on their roster that makes more than $10 million this season. Next season they only have one guy on their roster that will make more than $10 million.
Its not hard to understand this trade from their perspective.
I like this trade for both sides. The Brewers already have Williams who is very capable to close out games and they boosted their farm. The Padres need a more reliable closer and they got that.
I’m not debating whether Williams can fill the closer role, even though it is yet to be seen. For argument sake I’ll go along with it..However, who fills the 8th inning now? If it’s Boxberger, who gets the 7th? Gott and Wilner are struggling lately. Gustave isn’t the guy, and despite recent strong outings I wouldn’t pin my hopes on Suter. Unless there’s another deal coming I think there’s a hole in there somewhere, and it might be a problem getting to Williams in save situations.
Manny, I would think Rogers is in this mix somewhere.
This not the deal the Padres need.
This year’s Jake Marisnick/Adam Frazier hybrid.
Lamet should have been DFA’d last winter. Good riddance.
Im sorry but you don’t have a clue if you think Marisnick or Frazier is even in the same stratasphere as Josh Hader. Josh Hader is universally agreed upon as the best reliever in baseball and frankly it isn’t even close
Somebody call the cops!! The Padres just got robbed.
No doubt. They just traded their top prospect, a top 10 overall prospect, who put up a .457 OBP at AAA and stole 60 bases, who has 99 sprint speed according to statcast, and has power
That does not mean hes going to be the next Kenny Lofton but there is a ton of upside here
Nobody in the world but you and his family think Ruiz was the Padres’ top prospect or that he’s Top 10 in baseball. He’ll make some (not all) Top 100 lists in the offseason, if Milwaukee doesn’t use up his prospect eligibility.
His minor league numbers this year are outrageous, yes. Totally different than him jumping to the top past Abrams, Hassell, Woods, Merrill, etc. on the Padres’ list, let alone all MiLB.
Ruiz always had speed and power. His ability to make contact and play defense have held him back. Part of that .457 OBP comes from putting the ball in play on rock-hard AAA infields and AAA defenders not being able to make a play.
He’s an intriguing prospect with an outcome ranging from first-division starter to 5th outfielder.
Ruiz was sent down to Nashville by the Brewers.
Brewers fans can’t be happy.
Great day to be a Padres fan. Getting rid of both Rogers and Lamet in one trade and bringing in the guy we all wanted in the offseason. Hader has been one of the most dominant relievers in the game the past 4 seasons.
Then Passan, Rosenthal, and Heyman all saying in the last hour that the team is still in on Soto.
2 more moves to go. Move Snell to make room for Soto’s salary and then trade for Soto.
Very nice.
The Padres trade Snell and they are one SP injury away from having to do bullpen games every fifth day or sign another Jake Arrieta/Vince Velasquez. With a 2.81 ERA in July it makes more sense to ride the hot hand.
Agree. Gore’s not coming back for any meaningful innings before September, if then. Even if he comes back healthy, his innings would be limited either in the regular season or playoffs. There’s nobody on the farm who can be expected to give us a good emergency start.
Snell can be maddening when he decides to go thee balls on every hitter, but he can also give you 6+ innings of shutout baseball with double-digit Ks. As a fourth starter, that’s terrific.
Is AJ Preller one of the worst GMs in baseball? Seems like he likes to accumulate bad contracts and buy high. Ned Colletti comes to mind in regards to handing out bad contracts.
Why bother having a great reliever when you have trouble scoring runs and getting runs to take the lead in the first place? Padres will burn his arm out by bringing him in during the 7th inning
I know. This trade would only help if the Padres also got a premium bat to help them score more runs. Someone like Fernando Tatis or Juan Soto. Wait…
No problem with that anymore. Tatis starts his rehab assignment Thursday and will be back in a Padres uni by the Giants series.
This is what the Giants are going to see. Profar, Cronenworth, Tatis, Soto, Machado, Bell, Alfaro, Drury, Kim or Grisham
ONLY Grisham is under 100 OPS+ and he has been on fire in the 11 games since the break with 4 HR and a.951 OPS and 158 OPS+.
4 of those guys over 150 OPS+ for the season.
Padres going to score runs in bunches.
Preller likes to make these flashy moves,constantly turning over a third of his roster every 6 months.He never considers team chemistry.How can you have it if the faces are constantly changing?
So now it isn’t the lack of offense? Now it’s chemistry? Right. Keep trying.
Padres won’t have much of a farm system if they trade for Soto. Completely gutted. And who knows if they’ll be able to keep him in 2.5 years. That will be a gamble. They already have $100mm in contracts for the 2025 season. You’re going to add another $35mm plus for Soto, or $135mm plus for 7 players, with very few elite prospects left to blend in with the pricy veterans. You’re going to spend another $65mm plus for the remaining 19 slots, or $3.4mm per player? That only works if you have a bunch elite prospects who are productive and extremely cheap. That won’t be the Padres after a Soto deal. Maybe they can be the Angels of the National League with that kind of team.
Are the Padres going to flip him for someone else?
No, Hader is not the type of player you trade for to flip for someone else.
I’m a Brewers fan but I follow other team’s farm systems pretty closely. I’ve been in favor of trading Hader for quite awhile. That said, I think the return that Milwaukee got is atrocious. Rogers is fine but his contract is expiring, Lamet has one more ARB year but he’s always hurt and not very good this season, Ruis got off to a nice start in MLB but he’s not that great of a prospect, and Gasser is at least in the Dads top 10 but he’s a 23 year old pitcher in high A. I think this return is TERRIBLE for Stearns, who is known for usually making good trades
pdubs2907 – I don’t have crystal ball but think Robert Gasser is the sleeper in the deal that will be a top flight starter. Check out his stuff and see if you get the same sense.
Been listening to coldplay on repeat since hearing this news
If Chris Hook said “yeah, this guy is finished” that’s the only way this makes sense.
If I’m San Diego, I’m asking myself why is David Stearns a GM who is considered one of the smartest and best in baseball giving me Josh Hader while they’re in the middle of a pennant race for this return? Is there a reason why other teams weren’t in on him? What do the Brewers know about Hader that I don’t? I see a lot of people bashing Milwaukee but it’s very possible there is more to this deal than how much Hader makes. Maybe they know his best days are behind him and in the end this trade works out in their favor. A lot of people get excited by a name but everybody declines at some point.
Apparently (at least according to Stearns) the Brewers initiated no calls, but two teams came with aggressive deals, and he picked the Padres’ offer.
Now what does a Yelich trade look like? If they’re looking to offload some salary.
At that salary, they’d have to pay someone to take him.
This makes no sense for the Brewers. Trading their closer (who is having a down year to be fair but his track record says he will turn it around) when they are leading their division for a bad return. At least when the Guardians trade core players at the deadline while claiming they are trying to contend they always receive an overpay in return.
Ugggh, the Rays of the NL Central strike again. Cubs fan here but great move by MIL as this will help ensure they remain a thorn in our side for a few more years to come. Could be a move that bites them this year though, will just have to see how it plays out and what other deals they make before tomorrow.
Strange trade for Padres. A guy has the worst month of his career and you trade for him. Hope it works out for them – hopefully no drop in velocity and medicals check out fine.
Wow
Brewer Fans: Robert Gasser will be a number 3 rotation starter or better for the Brewers. He is the key piece to this deal. I have been hoping the Pads would keep him out of any trades. Write down his name and check out his stuff. Darn
I’d say this is a brilliant move by Milwaukee.
AJ Preller is clearly in a mode to save his job. I suspect Soto will land in San Diego as well and the return to Washington will basically empty the San Diego farm, it’s going to be unbelievable.
When trades like this happen MLB should insure that Milwaukee doesn’t get a competitive balance pick.
Interesting take. Curious as to why you are of that opinion.
Interesting take. I’m curious as to your reasoning.
BTV says the Padres win this trade by $4.4m if that means anything.
A rare Closer trade by two contending teams mid-season.
Cue the Dinelson Lamet breakout
So Lamet and his partially torn UCL is going to break out just like Paddack and his partially torn UCL did after the Padres traded him?
Lamet was DFAd by the Brewers today.
Don’t hate on Hater, er Hader
Brewers fans will be talking about this trade for YEARS if they have a first round exit or worse this year.
Only if that exit is bullpen related. If it happens I would suspect it would be more due to a lack of offense.
Only if the early exit is bullpen related. If they fail to make the playoffs or get bounced early I suspect it would be due to a lack of offense more than anything else.
Rogers?
Sorry for all this. The app is being a bit of an annoyance today.
@colonel Flagg
Love your user name!
I have no home. I’m the wind.
“I told you he was the wind! You said he was the stars!””No I said he was the moon.”
The wind just broke his arm.
There’s only one flaw in that theory.
Only one?
They don’t do three shows Saturday night at the Sands?
How do you know?
I was a showgirl for 6 weeks.
One more…
This won’t look good on your record.
But, Colonel it’s just Readers Digest.
Not if you take out the 3rd, 5th and 6th letters. Then it’s RED’s digest!
Comrade!
Padres overpaid
Smart personnel move in the long term. Probably looks like a steal in three years. Gotta hope they’ve handled this the right way in the clubhouse or it could bring in some bad vibes.
I was lamenting Lamet. Tons of upside, a massive dude (WWE-sized presence) but, between the bull and the China shop, he’s the China shop.
Maybe the extra humidity and lack of skinny women will help him break through in the glorious Midwest.
Lamet was DFA by the Brewers today.
Dumb trade for the Brewers by the supposedly “boy genius” GM Stearns. Especially in a pennant race. Why not wait until winter? Hader pitching in SD versus Rogers in Milwaukee. Not even close despite the claims by others that the closers are comparable. On top of that MKE doesn’t acquire any of the Pods’ creme of the crop prospects. Hell, why not take a gamble on Hosmer for the rest of the season as part of the trade?
Hope I’m wrong!
The only clear winner here are the Cardinals
The Cardinals are never winners.
Looks like Lamet was never in the plans for the Brewers. Just a way to even out the money so the Brewers could get prospects.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/brewers-designate-dinelson-lamet-pedro-severino-for-assignment.html