Last winter, Max Scherzer hit the open market as one of the more unique free agents in recent memory. While most baseball players, and athletes of all kinds, generally decline in quality as they get farther from their 20s, Scherzer was 37 and still playing at an elite level. Though last year was his age-36 season, he turned 37 years old on July 27th. (A player’s age on July 1 is generally considered to be their age for the year.) In that year, he threw 179 1/3 innings and somehow registered a career-best 2.46 ERA. Though he got ground balls at a below-average 33.5% clip, his 34.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate were both much better than the mean. He also added 16 1/2 innings of 2.16 ERA ball in the postseason, just for a little icing on the cake.
So, how do you value an elite pitcher who is 37 years old? The answer from the market was high salary over a short term. Scherzer received a three-year deal covering his age-37 through age-39 seasons, with Scherzer turning 40 in the last year of the deal. The deal comes with a $130MM guarantee, spread out evenly with a $43.33MM salary in each year. That AAV shattered the previous record, which was Gerrit Cole’s $36MM. Scherzer can also opt out of the deal after the second year.
This winter might feature a similar but perhaps more extreme free agent. Justin Verlander threw only six innings in 2020 before Tommy John surgery wiped out the rest of that season and all of 2021. After returning to health, he held a showcase for interested teams, eventually re-signing for the Astros. The contract guaranteed him $25MM for 2022, despite having barely pitched for two years. It also came with a $25MM player option for 2023, conditional on Verlander reaching 130 innings pitched this year. Verlander has already surpassed that mark, allowing him to cash in another $25MM salary next year.
However, he’s pitching so well this season that he’s likely to decline his option and return to the open market in search of a larger payday. Through exactly 130 innings coming into tonight, he has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 37.4% ground ball rate. The strikeouts aren’t as high as Scherzer’s were last season, but his ERA is significantly better, with a lower walk rate and better ground ball rate.
Verlander is older than Scherzer, having turned 39 years old in February. However, if he got an annual average value of $25MM after two lost seasons, what would he get after a Cy Young-caliber campaign, even if he is one year older? It will be a fascinating and unprecedented experiment. Verlander could rightly ask for a similar AAV to Scherzer, in the $40-45MM range, depending on how strong he finishes. But how much term will teams be willing to commit to a player about to enter his age-40 season? How many teams will be willing to go to two years? Will any go to three like they did for Scherzer?
But then what does Verlander want? Would he prefer something like a one-year, $50MM deal or try to land around $40MM annually spread out over three years? Verlander has previously said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s, perhaps pointing towards the latter option, but we can’t really know.
MLBTR readers, what do you think? Below are two polls, one for what kind of term you think Verlander will get and another for what kind of guarantee. Let us know your thoughts.
(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)
(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
3y/$105m
Scherzer just got a 3y/$130m. If I’m Verlander’s agent, we start the negotiations there.
I guess 3y/$125. Or 2y/$90. Someone will pay him and rightfully so.
I get it but I would retort he’s 40. We’re showing good faith at adding a 3rd year, but I’d cap it at $35m per. If he signs elsewhere for a better deal then more power to him. I respect your take though, it could very well happen that he gets more AAV than Mad Max.
Scherzer started the season at age 37, Verlander will be entering next season at age 40 with a recent major health red flag.
TJ isn’t a major health red flag unless its 1991 all of a sudden. Verlander has never had health issues prior to that or after. Mechanically, he is the epitome of perfection. If anyone is built to hold up to 45 its him. Plus, his pitch ability is so high. He could still be dominant sitting 92.
TJ isn’t a major deal since when?!? How about it’s A L W A Y S been a major red flag. Look at Wheeler. It cost him more than 2 years or his career.
He could probably still be dominant at age 92.
This young prospect knows his stuff!
And Wheeler has been better since his Tommy John surgery. Justin Verlander did not just get a bionic arm but I see no reason that at least one team won’t offer him 3 years and 100 million. He has been dominant this year from the get-go and the majority of pitchers recovering from a Tommy John surgery don’t find their groove nearly that quickly.
@Lloyd- It’s not the major injury, it’s the combination of being old and major injury. The body doesn’t usually age in reverse.
And world class athletes don’t usually have career years at 39 after missing multiple seasons to injury. Verlander is doing things that other top athletes can’t do at his age and will be paid handsomely for it.
And could regress greatly at moment’s notice. Plenty of athletes have fallen off a cliff in the span of 12 months, particularly pitchers. He may be paid at the top of the market and there’s a great chance someone regrets it. After all, Father Time is undefeated and it’s not like Verlander has had a flawless career.
I’d lean to the 2 year, $90 million. If you wanted to get crazy and had the payroll space, offer a team option with $10 million buyout to make it a $100 million guarantee.
I think someone goes 3 years. Maybe around $30M AAV, so $90M.
He’ll get closer to 90 with 2 years.
He’ll get closer to 90 with 2 years.
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I first read that as a 90-year contract.
Then I laughed.
Then I thought, sure, I’ll give him a 90-year contract at $2M per.
Sounds like a nationals contract, Joe
I was serious. I didn’t do the PV value of $180M/90. It’s probably way to small. He’s already a lock for the HOF, but maybe he wants to be the last pitcher to ever win 300.
Or more importantly, for maybe someone like DeGrom, you could offer him $200M/50, and he can pitch as long as he likes, or is at least effective. As great as he’s been, he’s not likely a HOF Ten years and 90 more wins probably gets him in. A lifetime contract could be an incentive,
Nah he’ll get 90 for 2, maybe some sort of mutual option thats lower than 45M for year 3 to reduce the AAV. Astros will give it to him, he probably only wants to play for a competitor so wouldn’t even want to sign for longer than 2 guaranteed, imho.
I’ve noticed FA predictions have started to trend toward overestimating the most recent two offseasons which is why I’m being conservative with a 40 year old. We shall see. I’m just not convinced someone will pay that but I could certainly be wrong.
They’ve missed on some, but Verlander is more in the Scherzer class. It will be a shorter-term deal, limiting a team’s exposure, allowing for a higher AAV.
He’s gonna top 3/120 for sure. I’d say he gets 45 mil per year for 3/135
No way that’s a guaranteed 3rd year.
That’s “3” 20 wins seasons for a 40 year old. I’m gonna take the under on this on. And I’ll take on all bettors. There is only 1 Nolan Ryan.
That bum is nowhere near Verlander’s level.
Probably 2 years 70m. My question is is Verlander the one who refused to sign with the Yankees because of rude and obnoxious fans or was that Cliff Lee? Anyway, I see maybe the Mets or Dodgers signing Verlander
Mets could go 3 years. And then regret the third year
You’re thinking of Cliff Lee. Verlander turned down the Yankees because they wouldn’t offer a 2nd year, a decision that looks foolish on their part
Didn’t Cliff Lee play in Philly?
He did, and I’m just as confused as you are if that was truly his reason for not signing with NYY.
The Phillies traded for Cliff Lee in July 2009 then sent him to the Mariners the following offseason after acquiring Roy Halladay. The Mariners then sent him to the Rangers in July 2010. When Lee hit free agency following the 2010 season, the Yankees aggressively pursued him but his wife didn’t want him to sign with them. Supposedly Yankees fans treated her and their kids poorly during the 2009 World Series and she didn’t forget it
Didnt it also have something to do with his kid and 1 of the hospitals there?
I believe he’ll get a huge AAV over two years-teams won’t be looking to guarantee more than that. I like Superstar Prospect Wander’s prediction of 2 years/90mil.
I would offer shorter term with a higher AAV. I say 2/$75
2 for 75MM. for the idiots who voted 4 years I mean Christ come on already let’s get real here. Scherzer was 37 going into that contract and JV will be 40. 3 years at the end of your career is a major major major major difference.
2yr/$1 Trillion.
Are you a congressman?
@Captain Dunsel
Sorry, with all the trillions the congress has been spending, I thought the base MLB salary was 1 trillion… 😀
You guys should do more polls. Polls are cool.
3/135
50 year one and two, 35 year three, with it being a club option. Verlander has a 25 million player option if his club option is declined
I think it’ll be 2 years/$100M guarantee, with annual salaries of $45M and a buyout of $10M on a 3rd year option of some kind that could take it to 3 years/$135M.
2 years for 80 million is my guess
I only care about him getting 300 wins. I didn’t realize he was as high as 241 until today.
I don’t think this quest matters much for his next contract, except that pitching for a contender which values his win total will be important.
He will need 4 more years, maybe 3 excellent years, but no team will give him 4 years. So, just go two years with a contender, and then see what happens from there.
The Royals and A’s have been stockpiling revenue sharing money for years
2 years. Year one at 37.5 year two being a player option at 27.5. First team discount, welcome back to Detroit
2/$87M, setting a new AAV record.
If Arte Moreno is serious about winning and keeping Ohtani, then he signs Verlander for 2yrs/$90M and thus keeps Verlander away from Houston. Before anyone cries foul, keep in mind the 2022 payroll had about $50M tied to Upton and Thor alone this year.
Of course that means Arte needs to open his wallet and blow well past $200M for 2023, 2024, and beyond. You can’t claim to be a large market team and not be willing to expand the purse. That also means investing in quality support players as well.
In a perfect world, the Angels would have already traded their valued assets and re-tooled. But we know Arte doesn’t play that way. Considering he won’t enter a rebuild, he needs to go all-in on his current hand.
As for Houston, they’ll survive without Verlander, but he makes Urquidy and Valdez that much better by slotting them down the rotation. Take Verlander out of the equation and it’s a little more vulnerable. Still a quality staff, but JV just makes them filthy.
If it’s 2/$90 million, I think Houston would match that and he’d stay there and have a better chance to contend/chase 300 wins.
Now I wouldn’t mind adding Verlander. But odds are, looking at probably around 25 million for next year at least in Arbitration for Ohtani. The Angels need to seriously upgrade catcher, first base, SS, and the bullpen. Before sinking 40 million on one player. The Angels are either 24th or 25th in runs scored this season. They are around 14th in runs given up this season. If they were top 20 in runs scored, they would be above 500 right now.
We have to acknowledge that the losses of Trout and Rendon are huge reasons the Angels are near the bottom in runs scored. The downstream affects are huge as well. Walsh, as an example, is an entirely different hitter when Trout is in the lineup (and esp Rendon). Rendon transforms that lineup. Very few teams not named the Dodgers can withstand the losses of their top 2 paid players. The collapse of last year’s Padres is a great example.
The Angels need to realize that instead of putting on bandaids, they have to treat their wounds. Their offseason priority should be 1) health and then look at 2) free agency.
While I appreciate Trout hitting massive bombs and looking like a running back playing baseball, his off season workout routine has got to get him leaned out. He has too much muscle. Perhaps instead of cold New Jersey, he stays in Newport and enjoys the offseason running and cross training in the warm sun.
Rendon needs to look in the mirror and figure it out. He was the model of consistency in DC and now he’s played 155 games for the Angels….in 3 years. Between his groin, hip, and now wrist, he needs to find a way to stay healthy. The medical staff (never a strong suit in Anaheim) needs to stay on top of Rendon.
Obviously Fletcher was a decent piece as well. Especially learning of his loss right off the bat to start the season. I think we all know he’s better at 2nd base. Once again, stay healthy Fletch.
The Angels really need a shortstop. This is the perfect year to look for a SS. All the attention will go to Bogaerts, Correa, Turner, and Anderson, I think the sneaky pick here is Dansby Swanson. I think they can get him without breaking the bank.
If Trout and Rendon can actually stay healthy (rogue concept, I know), then we can assume Walsh will be a serviceable 1B.
Catcher is once again a position of need. It appears Stassi peaked last year, but signing Contreras is not the answer. Any way you slice it, I don’t think a huge contract is needed here.
OF will be a mixed bag of Trout, Moniak, Odell, and Ward. I like the pickup of Moniak. He’s a name and puts pressure on guys who have all too often been given opportunities. Put up or shut up time.
I like Tepera near the back end, but his career has shown he’s not a closer.. Loup and Maddon never seemed like a good fit. I think Loup is a good bounce back candidate next season. The Angels could find a guy like David Robertson to shore up the back end of the bullpen. His numbers are crazy good this year and proof experience is sometimes better than raw talent.
I think that genuinely leaves room for Verlander. Verlander and Shohei at the top of the rotation would be one of the best 1-2 punches in baseball. Followed by Sandoval, Suarez, and Detmers, Who knows maybe one of the fliers from Toussaint or Davidson bear fruit. IMO, Verlander just really sets this rotation in place.
I’m pretty sure the last time the angels paid a pitcher more than $10M in any season was CJ Wilson… Iglesias would have broken that next year, but they traded him with 3 years left on his deal to avoid it…
And you think Arte is dropping 45M on a 40 year old pitcher? Okay
For only 2 years? If he wants to win? Yep.
(Keep in mind he was willing to drop a Brinks truck for Gerritt Cole, but Boras somehow convinced him to pivot that bankroll to an aging 3B in Rendon. Sigh.)
3 years $100 million total.
He’ll be a Padre and they will still win only 86 games
The Padres could add Verlander, Ohtani, Trout, Guerrero Jr and Scherzer and still not win 90.
='(
10 years $472.5 million
Jim Crane will write the check JV tells him too. They are fairly tight.
Any team willing to give a 40 year old pitcher a 3 year deal would be fools. A 2 year deal sounds much more likely. Possibly even a front loaded one with an opt out so he could potentially test the market again the following year
He is going back to Detroit for his last contact
Just think if Detroit had kept Verlander and Scherzer.
Solid 72 win team
Two years, 100 million.
Interesting to see if the Braves take a chance for guys like deGrom and Verlander. The Braves priority should be starting pitching; however, spending soo much on an aging pitcher is very risky.
It isn’t always about the money, he wants Togo to a winning team. The higher salary he gets the less the team has to spend on other players. He LOVES the Astros and team mates like’s the city may sign for20-30 mil per year on 2 year deal. Many Other high spending team are close to limit with out being penalized draft picks if going over
Yeah It wasn’t that the Astros just happened to give him the biggest and longest contract with an ability to opt out if he’s healthy, it’s that he loves Houston. Gotcha
Seattle, make it happen.
They need to go after Verlander or DeGrom. I know they could use offensive help but I’m not confident there’s a great fit in the next class and a playoff rotation of Verlander, Castillo, Ray certainly takes some pressure off the offense. spend that $$$!!
2/95 or 3/125. May sound absurd but he’ll get it.
Astros will resign Verlander to a 3/145 million contract with the third year a team option based on him pitching 275 total in innings in the first two years combined. Jim crane won’t let him leave
This is the correct one. Anything larger or longer Houston will pass.
I see him signing with the Mets. There’s the talk that deGrom might opt out of his current deal and test the market. If the Mets can’t bring back deGrom, Verlander should easily be Plan B for them. The Astros will still be a good team with out him if he leaves Houston.
When are the MLB higher-ups going to finally get a chemist on their payroll to tell the world what PED and HGh these guys are taking and it’s not showing up on present test.
They’ll never find it. Kate Upton is wet nursing him.
You’d think he’d be throwing harder if he was on PEDs wouldn’t ya?
Not showing up on tests? Tell that to Frankie Montas and Robinson Cano.
Tigers need to offer him 35 million for 3 years, pick up several other big money players, including at least one other starter, and get their fan base back.
Hopefully he takes a slight pay cut to stay in Houston. Or alternatively the Astros pony up and pay him his demands, lol.
He’s going to get more than Scherzer’s deal. 3/132.
2 yr, $90MM with a third year vesting option for 300 IP
That sounds like a final offer Hou would do when JV gives them the last look. He made a ton for the 2 injured years and most people have some mutual loyalty when someone consistently does right by them. If someone else goes nuts to make a splash, you can bet the club is confident enough to pass and adjust like they have with other pricey FAs.
Maybe the more interesting question would be, and I suspect that MLB-R might have it lined up for tomorrow, is what does DeGrom get? If the numbers being bandied about for Scherzer are in the range of $105M/3, what does a young kid like DeGrom get? He just came off of an injury and struggled to put up a 18/1 K/W in 10.2 innings.
Health is always an issue, but he is 4 years younger than Scherzer and 5+ years younger than Verlander.
$200M/5?
JV and Scherzer are extreme outliers of TOR starters even as they push 40. DeGrom is hurt a lot, which is common for his age (that isn’t young when compared to most of the mortals). If someone offers DeGrom more than 2yrs at a huge AAV, that is pretty reckless even if he looks great this final sprint of ’22.
Such a tough call. His career IPs of 1,272, are a fair amount lower than Scherzer & Verlander (2,632 & 3,124), so he theoretically has less wear & tear. His most recent injury is supposed to be very treatable. His elbow soreness last year is worrisome, but maybe the next 2 months could provide some insight. If there is still something there, I expect we will see something.
The lack of top tier pitchers in the free agent market helps Verlander considerably. Carlos Rodon is most likely the next best pitcher available and he has considerably more durability questions than Verlander even heading into his 40’s. For those who think Verlander’s age and recent Tommy John surgery will prevent teams from committing to him I would use Jamie Moyer as a counterpoint. Moyer’s last season was his age 48 year which came after missing the year prior to TJS. Verlander is way better than Moyer. Verlander will have a bunch of huge money 2 year deals on the table, it will take a guaranteed third year to get a deal done. I’m saying 3/125.
Insane that pitchers get over a million a start, but a family of four can’t afford to go to more than one game a year
Stubhub is selling 4 tickets to Tuesday’s TB/NYY game for $44. that’s about the same as movie tickets, and a whole heck of a lot less than Springsteen tickets.
Yeah Frodo I get your post, but the take of “tickets are too expensive!” is tired. The Angels (even when they were winning) offer Family 4-Packs for 4 tickets, 4 hot dogs, and 4 drinks for $44. Granted they’re in the nose bleed section, but you can still take your family to a game.
Try that in the NFL or the NBA.
Either 2 years/$105 million or 3 years/$135 million.
I do think it should be interesting what he ultimately decides b/c if he thinks he should still be good enough after 2 more years, it makes sense to take a shorter term deal to maximize dollars. I also wouldnt expect the last year of a 3 year offer to be fully guaranteed
2/48 million contract with first year front loaded at 33Million. 18 million option for second year