The Giants could be one of the most aggressive teams this offseason, given their limited payroll commitments and many areas of need. The club’s president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi recently spoke about how “everything is on the table” this winter, “including going out and being aggressive at the top end of the free agent market.” Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that they would “love” to go after one of the top shortstop free agents if they don’t sign Aaron Judge.
Judge will undoubtedly be the top free agent on the market, based on his career track record and incredible platform season. He’s already hit 55 home runs on the year and has produced an overall batting line of .307/.410/.679. That amounts to an unbelievable 202 wRC+, indicating Judge has somehow been 102% better than the league average hitter. When combined with solid outfield defense and 16 stolen bases, he’s already racked up 9.3 wins above replacement on the season in the estimation of FanGraphs and 8.7 at Baseball Reference.
Given that Judge grew up in the Bay Area, he’s often been speculatively connected to the Giants, though it would take a sizeable commitment on the team’s part for that to come to fruition. Back in April, Judge and the Yankees failed to reach an agreement on an extension, with the slugger reportedly turning down a seven-year, $213.5MM deal. Judge was apparently looking for $36MM over nine or ten years, a range of $324-360MM. Now that Judge is having his best season yet and will soon be able to court offers from the 29 other teams, it’s entirely possible that he will now try to do even better than that.
The Giants haven’t operated at anywhere near that level since Zaidi took over in November of 2018, having not yet given out a contract longer than three years in his tenure. However, that means that the team’s ledger is fairly clear, giving the club the opportunity to change course. There’s only about $89MM committed for next year’s team, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That doesn’t include raises for arbitration-eligible players like Mike Yastrzemski or Logan Webb, but it does include $22.5MM for Carlos Rodon, who is almost certainly going to opt out and return to free agency. They have just over $20MM committed to 2024 and nothing for 2025 and beyond. Given that they had an Opening Day payroll of $155MM this year, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, and have been as high as $200MM in 2018, there’s room for a big splash if they want to make it.
If the club can’t successfully bring Judge back to the neighborhood, it seems that pursuing a shortstop will be another option they will consider. Of course, the club already has a shortstop in Brandon Crawford, who has been a mainstay there for over a decade, having made his debut in 2011. Last year was a revelation for Crawford, as he suddenly produced the best campaign of his career after a few rough seasons. He hit .298/.373/.522 in 2021, producing a 138 wRC+ that was 25 points better than his previous career high. When combined with his excellent defensive work, he produced 6.3 wins above replacement, in the estimation of FanGraphs, easily eclipsing his previous high of 4.4.
In the midst of that excellent showing, the Giants and Crawford agreed to a two-year, $32MM extension, though the first season has been a disappointment. Crawford has been battling a knee injury for most of the year, going on the IL twice because of it. When healthy enough to take the field, he hasn’t been able to produce at anywhere near his 2021 output. He’s hitting .226/.305/.346 on the season for a wRC+ of 85, with his defensive numbers also not as impressive as last year.
Crawford still has one year remaining on that extension but will be turning 36 in January. Given his age, knee issues and diminished performance, it seems the Giants are willing to consider a bold move to strengthen their infield. Since the field of available shortstops is going to be strong again this year, it might be prudent to strike early, even if it means Crawford and another shortstop sharing the roster for one season. Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson are both on the cusp of free agency, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts both expected to opt out of their respective contracts and join them.
The Giants have also been significantly held back by their defense this year, with a collective -30 Outs Above Average and -33 Defensive Runs Saved, both of those numbers placing them 28th in the majors. Ultimate Zone Rating gives them a -28.6, which is 29th. Second base has been a particularly rough area, with the team’s collective numbers at the keystone coming in at -5 OAA (25th), -15 DRS (29th) and -2.1 UZR (21st). Having a shortstop-quality defender take over at second base, either Crawford or an outside addition, might be a good way for the club to take a step forward next year, especially with the ban on extreme defensive shifts going into place next season.
Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores have taken the bulk of playing time at second base this season, though each is capable of playing other positions and arguably better utilized away from second. Estrada has a -10 DRS at second and Flores a -6 this year, with each of them putting up better numbers at the other positions they’ve played. Estrada has yet to reach arbitration and Flores is eschewing free agency after agreeing to a two-year extension, reported earlier today.
Each of the Turner/Swanson/Correa/Bogaerts group will likely command a lesser contract than Judge, though that doesn’t mean they will be cheap. All four of them are currently younger than 30 years old, with Xander crossing that threshold on October 1. That means each of them will likely be looking for lengthy contracts. This past offseason, Corey Seager got ten years, Marcus Semien got seven, with Trevor Story and Javier Baez each getting six. Correa ended up settling for a three-year deal, though with a high average annual value of $35.1MM and opt-outs after each season. Similar to any Judge contract, the Giants would likely have to break their pattern of sticking to short-term deals in order to make an impact in the shortstop market. Should they miss out on all of the upper tier options, there’s a significant drop to the next level, which will be occupied by players like Jose Iglesias and Elvis Andrus.
All told, it should be a fascinating winter for the Giants and their fans. The club has been keeping its books mostly clear for years and has stayed busy on the waiver wire, grabbing just about any role player they could find. That’s left the roster in a position where they have solid depth all around the roster but a lack of truly outstanding players. 10 different position players have produced at least 0.5 fWAR for the Giants on the season but none higher than 2.3 so far. Perhaps the conditions are right for them to raise the ceiling in the months to come.
Weird.
Thought they’d just extended Wilmer FloreSS.
Flores hasn’t played short since 2016.
And he didn’t belong there then
I suppose the inside joke didn’t make it to mlbtr.
It almost did but somebody scared it away with a COVID rant.
No I got it. The capital esses made it clear, I was just saying
Trea turner best FA ss next year. With the new rules in place he will benefit the most with base stealing. If the team that signs him gives him green light he’ll approach 60sb in addition to everything else he offers.
Exactly. Trea Turner over Judge is the smartest move, but the Giants have to out bid the Dodgers, and should. After that, I’d like the next position player contract to go to Rafael Devers. Then you got a hell of an infield with Craw at second, platooning with Estrada, and Flores and Lamonte Wade Jr, platooning at first.
And for goodness sake re-negotiate with Carlos Rodon.
Devers doesn’t play great defense, and the Giants couldn’t play very good defense this year. Although, Devers’s bat could easily make up for it
I’ve never heard that about Devers. I thought his “D” had improved considerably this year. I know Bogaerts defense at short is iffy. Where’d you hear that about Devers?
No way they allow him to attempt anywhere near that. He will be a $30+ million dollar a year player. The injury risk that goes with attempting to steal is something any front office will avoid after forking over that kind of money. Look for him to stay around 20-25 steals a year. With most of those being close to gimmes.
I’d love to place a bet with you on that.
Man those free agent contracts are Bad.
The Giants are a team like the Reds or the Angels. I never get what they think they’re trying to do. Difference is, it generally works for the Giants.
There’s definitely a method to the madness, though it might be hard to see from the outside looking in.
The Giants have been waiting to clear a lot of bad contracts off the books before committing to wading in the big pool of free agents. Fans were content with that during the last 2-3 years, which were transitional seasons, but seasons where platoon-heavy, analytically rich lineups thrived. But this season that approach didn’t work as well. Add to that the departure of Posey (and subsequently the last of the ’14 WC heroes after this season), and fans have been clamoring for a blockbuster acquisition.
The moves to date have accomplished what they were supposed to: The team competed while retooling, and there’s plenty of payroll. The trouble, though, is that the farm system took a step back this year. Nevertheless, it makes sense to add a marquee player or two in the offseason to start building around.
Scott, what’s ironic is some lower rated minor leaguers had big years while the higher rated minor leaguers, as you posted, had lesser years. So some in the farm system stepped back and some others stepped up. Like Schmidt and McCray. I’m hoping for Judge and Rodon and Pederson. And the usual Zaidi hidden gems
When the Giants played the Twins, I was impressed with Correa and his leadership. How about moving Crawford to 3B platooning with Villar? Given the signing of Flores, I’m guessing Longo will either retire or his 13MM not picked up.
This….adding Correa to the rivalry may make the games worth watching again
That’s an excellent scenario. If Longoria doesn’t retire SF needs to go the buyout route because he needs to be off the roster. Move Crawford to 3B because his value on the trade market will be minimal unless someone is just looking for a 1-year stopgap. I think the Giants will be better served to make SS a priority – Judge’s contract (whoever gives it to him) will limit you to shopping the 2nd tier at any other position.
@jints, Longo’s buyout is $5MM. Huge. So to pick up the option is only $8M more. I am not a big fan, nor have I been, of Longo. Maybe he’s just too old and his body will never be healthy enough again to stay on the field….but if he could manage 120 games instead of the 60+ he’s played this year, $8M isn’t a lot for a pretty solid bat like his. I don’t personally like this scenario, just stating that it exists. I hope he retires.
Giants are not going to pickup Longo’s option.
They need Judge, Turner, a first baseman, a long-term deal for Rodon, and basically a whole new bullpen besides a couple of guys. I’d take Joc back if he would sign for something similar to Wilmer, but those guys need to be complementary pieces, not your best offensive players. Yaz and Wade have apparently reverted back to the AAAA players their former organizations knew they were, and the Giants haven’t developed a major league caliber outfielder in recent memory, so the will probably need to add there too even if they manage to land Judge. All of this is contingent on Farhan actually opening the checkbook and not just talking about it, which I am by no means convinced he will actually do.
I don’t see Judge leaving New York.
Of course, I never thought Freddie Freeman would leave Atlanta, so I suppose anything is possible when it comes to the business side of the game.
The first base FA market will be interesting this winter, but Josh Bell, imo, is the cream of the crop despite him falling off a Cliff after leaving WAS. Giants should try to drive up Judge’s asking price only to saddle NYY with another long term $30m+ contract. I just see Judge’s health and productivity becoming an issue immediately after landing the contract he’s playing for this year.
I do think his injury history plus his size are dangerous to pursue, as good as he is. I expect the Giants to pick up two everyday players, plus Rodon or another pitcher of his ilk (which is hard to come by). Otherwise, this offseason will be little more than a PR campaign, and won’t help enough on the field.
Giants, Please do something !!
You make winter even longer when your sitting on your hands and all the FA’s are passing us by.
I vote for Turner or Swanson on a five or six year contract. Stay away from anything longer than six years. Please don’t sign Judge unless he will sign for six years and 40 million a year. As for the shortstops, I think Turner will get 30 mil a year and Swanson will get 25 to 27 mil a year.
Let’s see how I did with those three FA’s. GO GIANTS !!
Take some solace in the 2022 production coming from many of last years big free agents. They have been ok, but I now see missing out on Story and Suzuki as a blessing. Not disasters, but I’d much rather not have them and be in the mix for Judge and/or Turner. This year could have been worse. Could easily have been the same or similar W-L result, but with a less than ideal long term contract on the books.
I’d also be surprised if there is too much sitting on hands going on. You can argue against his methods, but I don’t think you can doubt Zaidi’s work ethic. The man is perpetual motion when it comes to trying to improve the team.
“AJ” has his eye on “AJ”. AJ Preller will be after A Judge. Believe it.
Jeez they would be the highest payroll and not even close
ya hes gonna be a padre
Of course. Perfect for AJ, as Judge has a long injury history, and he likes those guys!
If they fail to sign Rodon, they have no chance in 23
They def need more than just rodon but yeah he def was there best pitcher by far
If the Giants sign Elvis Andrus, I’m effing done
IMHO signing Judge to the type of contract he appears to want would be pretty stupid. Let another team make that mistake. If the Giants go after a top-tier SS I’d guess Swanson would be more affordable than Bogaerts, Correa, or Turner, although I’d also think the Braves want to try keeping him and he might prefer staying with them. The Giants have a number of needs to fill if they want to contend, and they might have to settle for continuing to be kinda’ mediocre. They’ve set the bar so high with their three WS titles in five seasons (accomplished with Sabean, Boche, and Posey) and their MLB-leading 107-win season that their fans might be a bit spoiled and Zaidi might be feeling more pressure to produce than he can reasonably meet.
Take Aaron Judge away from the short porch in Yankee Stadium and put him the hitter’s vacuum that is whatever the hell they are calling the stadium in SF this year and you will have a lot of fly ball outs.
Actually, Hiflew, if you look at his HR distances, if he played every game in SF, his HR totals would be affected by only two HRs, leaving him at 53 currently, per Statcast.
Despite how it seems, Judge’s HRs aren’t affected by Yankee Stadium & overall, Yankee stadium plays as a very neutral site because of the gaps.
Those distance estimates are meaningless because the air the ball is hit into is different. There is a lot more moisture in the air in SF which tends to slow the ball down also. Baseball is not played in a vacuum, there are many variables which are not accounted for in each and every stadium.
Turner is awesome, but Bogarts is the guy – the first in a series of candle light vigils in support of the signing begins tonight
Bogarets can hit, but his glove at SS is very much in question. Would he move to second, while Trea takes over SS?
I think the Braves go a little more aggressively after Swanson than Freeman. I think the FO kinda wishes they had a do over last year with Freeman, although I think both sides were somewhat at fault. Swanson is a complete leader in that clubhouse and losing 2 fan favorites in 2 years would be really unsettling for everyone. Grissom is not moving to SS.
has anyone seen what ss prospect marco luciano did this season? he was being touted as the next correa. did he do that bad in the giants’ system that they’re looking elsewhere already? 🙁
I don’t think they’re viewing him as a MLB shortstop – I think he projects more as a 3B
Yup.
Upgrade at ss makes sense, Upgrade up the middle.. ss and cf . They have plenty of decent players to fill in the corners.
Dodgers will be in the market for a SS, as will the Braves. Will be a lot of gamesmanship and false leads I reckon
Javier Baez is available
Baez is locked up in a contract with the Tigers. wth are you talking about he’s available?
Javier Baez is in a long term contract with the Tigers. WTH are you talking about?
Javier Baez is in a long term contract with the Detroit Tigers…WTH are you talking about?
sorry for duplicates computer had a brain fart
You don’t know Javier Baez is available and.you are blaming the computer? Wow….
You.must know howmto.run a computer better than you know Tiger fans.Yes. Javier Baez IS available….