When the 2021-22 offseason commenced, Nick Martinez wasn’t even on the radar for most MLB fans. The right-hander had stumbled through an uninspiring four-year run with the Rangers from 2014-17, and while a big showing in Japan put him back on the radar of MLB clubs, it was still a shock to see him sign the 14th-largest contract of any pitcher last offseason. Martinez not only secured an eye-opening four-year term and $25.5MM guarantee from the Padres — he was also promised the opportunity to opt out of his contract after each season of the deal.
It’s an upside-laden contract for the player. Annual opt-outs of that nature tend to go to coveted free agents settling for shorter-term deals than they might otherwise prefer (e.g. Carlos Correa in Minnesota). It’s not an entirely new concept — Scott Kazmir got that treatment from the Dodgers as far back as 2015 when signing his three-year, $48MM deal — and it’s one that Padres president of baseball ops has now used to lure in a pair of players he played a role in signing and developing during his time with Texas; Jurickson Profar’s three-year, $21MM contract also contained an opt-out after each of the first two seasons.
Martinez’s four-year deal pays him a $2MM signing bonus and a $4MM salary in 2022. All three of his player options are valued at $6.5MM, and he’d receive a $1.5MM buyout if he decided to turn an option down and test free agency. In other words, Martinez’s upcoming option effectively is a net $18MM decision. The signing bonus, 2022 salary and option buyout are all but banked. The question for him is one of whether he can top $18MM in free agency this winter.
It’s fair to question whether that can be called a given. On the surface, Martinez’s 3.22 ERA in 100 1/3 innings has to be considered a roaring success. He entered the 2022 season with a career 4.77 ERA in 415 1/3 innings, all coming in that prior run with the Rangers — one that concluded with consecutive ERAs north of 5.50.
At the same time, Martinez hasn’t exactly dominated opponents. His 20.9% strikeout rate is below the 22.3% league average, while his 8.6% walk rate is ever so slightly higher than the 8.2% league average. Martinez induces grounders at an above-average clip (46.7% compared to 42.2%) but also surrenders home runs more frequently than the average pitcher (1.25 HR/9 compared to 1.10 HR/9).
The role — or rather, the roles — that Martinez has filled this year don’t necessarily help his cause, either. He opened the year as the Padres’ fifth starter but was part of a six-man rotation by May and was moved to the bullpen full-time in mid-June, after 10 solid but unspectacular starts (52 1/3 innings, 4.30 ERA, 20.4 K%, 11.7 BB%).
In the bullpen, things have gone better. Martinez has tallied 48 1/3 innings in relief and worked to a 2.05 ERA. His 21.5% strikeout rate in the ’pen is only moderately higher than it was out of the rotation, but to his credit, Martinez’s 4.7% walk rate as a reliever is miles better than it was coming out of the rotation. (Whether teams deem that to be sustainable is another open question.) He’s picked up eight saves and six holds for the Friars, but early on, the majority of his work came in lower-leverage situations. Even three of those eight saves were of the three-inning variety in long relief. He’s been used in later, higher-leverage spots as the summer has worn on, but Martinez will likely finish the season having spent only a couple months working in the critical leverage spots for which teams tend to pay top dollar.
There are other elements to consider, too. Martinez rates well in terms of his overall average exit velocity, yielding just an 86.6 mph average to his opponents. That checks into the 87th percentile among MLB pitchers. He also boasts above-average spin on his fastball and curveball alike, and Martinez has excelled at inducing chases on pitches off the plate. However, Martinez’s 37.2% hard-hit rate is barely better than the league-average, and the 8.2% barrel rate he’s yielded is well shy of league average (32nd percentile). Basically, when he does allow contact, he’s been much more prone to loud contact than one would expect when looking the mean results.
Martinez’s case is an interesting one. He didn’t thrive in a rotation role, even when facing hitters the first time through the order (.282/.311/.447). As is typically the case, those numbers worsened the second and third time he faced an opponent in a game. He’s been excellent the first trip through the lineup as a reliever, however (.201/.261/.289), even though he didn’t completely overhaul his pitch arsenal when shifting to bullpen work. At a time when relievers and even some starters are gravitating toward focusing on two plus pitches, Martinez’s approach is uncommon: he’s the rare reliever who deploys a five-pitch mix (four-seamer, cutter, sinker, curve, changeup).
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote a few weeks ago that Martinez appears unlikely to opt out of the remaining three years on his contract, as it’s a stretch to envision him topping that remaining guarantee. There’s merit to that line of thinking. Martinez was unexciting in a brief run as a starter, has impressed but not dominated as a reliever, and doesn’t have the type of elite velocity, spin rate or whiff rate that serve as the portent to a breakout.
On the spectrum of outcomes, his 2022 season hasn’t been a best-case scenario but has been better than average. A 90th percentile outcome or better might have seen Martinez play a prominent role and pitch toward the top of the San Diego rotation; giving 10 serviceable starts before moving to the ’pen and slowly climbing into a leverage role has to rank somewhere in the 60th to 75th percentile of outcomes. The Padres are surely happy with the year-one results.
Martinez’s decision is made difficult because the very nature of the contract he signed sat outside the norms of conventional contract structures for typical MLB free agents. Generally speaking, free agents very rarely sign three- and four-year deals with average annual values in the $6-7MM range. Even back-end starters will crack the $8-10MM range on one- and two-year deals. It’s not uncommon to see a setup reliever sign a multi-year deal in this AAV range, but most recent examples have been of the two-year variety.
If Martinez hopes to beat the net $18MM on his contract, he’d need a team to value him in the $10MM range over a two-year span or an $8-9MM range over a three-year span. In the case of the former, that’d likely mean a team believing he can function as a starter on a full-time basis. The latter structure is typically reserved for some of the market’s most highly desirable relievers (e.g. Kendall Graveman’s three-year deal with the White Sox, Joe Kelly’s three-year deal with the Dodgers). It’s hard to include Martinez in that same category.
Still, there’s a logical disconnect between the idea that the market produced a $25.5MM guarantee for Martinez a year ago, when he was a total wild card, but might not produce better than an $18MM guarantee now that he’s proven himself capable of providing legitimate value to a contending MLB club. The source of that disconnect may simply be the allure of the unknown. There may yet be room for Martinez to take his game to another level, but some of the perceived upside stemming from the 1.60 ERA, 25% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate he posted in his final NPB campaign has perhaps dwindled. That’s not to say he’s not a valuable big league pitcher — he certainly has been — but now that he’s more of an established commodity, that same upside might not be baked into a potential new contract.
Suffice it to say, Martinez’s opt-out looks like something of a borderline case. He can fill multiple roles, has shined out of the ’pen, held his own in the rotation but hasn’t dominated opponents at any step along the way. He’d need to be confident teams will view him as at least $9-10MM per year pitcher in order to opt out, because even though a $7-8MM AAV over a three-year term would be a win for him, that’s tougher to come by when you’re selling your age-32 through age-34 seasons.
If he sticks with the Padres, they’ll be happy to have him. Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea are free agents at season’s end, and the Friars traded MacKenzie Gore to the Nationals in the Juan Soto deal. Their 2023 rotation depth is not as sound as this year’s was and is. In the bullpen, each of Robert Suarez, Pierce Johnson and Craig Stammen can become a free agent. Martinez provides some valuable substance to both groups. The $18MM question is whether that value is significant enough that he’ll again test his luck on the open market.
We can close this one out with a poll…
Hope to see Nick return to our Pen, next season!
Might need him as a fifth starter behind Darvish, Musgrove, Snell and possibly Clevinger.
Yeah I’ve always voted on him staying our consistent fifth starter but great to see his pitching versatility
Is this the same guy who played the bartender in It’s a Wonderful Life? Ahahaha!
He’ll stay. Put up a second good year and the equation will change.
After a less than ordinary period pitching for the Rangers from 2014-17, Nick Martinez had to play in Japan to both find work and hopefully get MLB teams interested in employing him.
Due to the shortage of decent pitchers in MLB as well as extensive pitcher injuries, most MLB teams use over 30 pitchers a year although only 13 are usually on the roster at any one time. The Padres under a desperate AJ Preller that will overpay to throw players up against the wall hoping some will stick for a while, gave Martinez a 4 year deal with opt-puts.
Into the season with the starting pitching ho-hum and his vaulted farm system still not producing any inexpensive controlled starting pitchers, Preller had to make some acquisitions in-season to bring in yet more expensive veteran pitchers onto his team. Martinez was moved to the bullpen and is surprisingly having a very good season.
Now Mr. Martinez has a decision to make. He can stay with the Padres in 2023 and make $18m or he can opt out.
Over 100 innings of sub 3.5 era ball will get you better than $6.5/year. Opt out and get paid before you turn back into a pumpkin
Probably sign with the Twins. 100 innings for 30 starts.
Him Arron Sanchez and Jharrel Cotton(Flex Seal!) can share a rotation spot!
As your financial advisor, Mr. Martinez, I recommend you decline your opt-out and stay at least one more season. The $7 mill. you collect next year will set you up financially for the rest of your life;. Don’t risk that.
Completely agreed. That’s guaranteed life changing money for a couple generations. Bank it then consider opting out next year.
Plus there are fewer places I’d rather live than SD.
Let’s do the numbers. $7M is about $4M after-tax. Invested, $4M will generate about $200K/yr, on average. You’ll need to take part of that, say $50K, and throw it back on top of the $4M to offset inflation and ensure that the next year’s $200K in interest isn’t worth less. So that’s maybe $150K/year. Life-changing? I don’t think so. My numbers may be wrong but I don’t think by much.
must be nice thinking that 200k a year isnt life changing when most people live on well under 50k/yr wage.
Connie, I agree with your $7 mill. becomes $4 mill. and the 5% withdrawal rate. But if properly invested it should yield $200k a year pre-tax AND keep up with inflation (not 8% inflation, but “normal” 2%-3% inflation). Not life changing, but enough to live on quite comfortably. If not, get a job for $50-$100k and live quite well without having to work too hard. In any case, too much to pass up in my book.
@kellin
There’s countless comments here about people making $50/hour or $10k a month. Money is one of the most plentiful resources on earth.
Way off.
Start with paying your agent 5% ($350k) and your union dues ($85 per day). That is non taxable income. Now you are at $6.6 million.
Take $120k and hire a decent tax attorney. He or she should be able to easily lower your total tax burden to under 5%. That’s another $330k in taxes. Now you are at $6.3 million.
Do that for 2 years. That’s about $12.6 million.
Not sure where you are getting a 5% return on investment right now, but please share because even the S&P 500 index is not getting that in 2022. I did see a 26% return on my investment in S&P Index fund in calendar year 2021, but those same investments are down about 12% since the beginning of September 2021.
Let’s use your 5% ROI numbers though. First off, you are talking about investing and not touching the principal. That initial $6.6 million is still there as long as you don’t pull it out to spend.
Working 1 year to get $330k/year ($6.6 million after taxes x 5% ROI) for life is life changing. Working two years to get $660k per year for life is generational wealth.
If he does half that well on his investments, its still life changing.
@PadsFan
5% return on investment. I know you can’t get that now. That’s why I said 5% on average. Read. You are not going to get away with under 5% taxes if you don’t have a business with write-offs and deductions. And doubling the whole thing with a second year was not in the scenario given. You create $330K out of thin air and magic. Your math is a fantasy.
Where are you getting 5% average during the term of his contract we are discussing? You are not getting that in 2022. Probably not in 2023.
5% ROI on the taxable amount of his 2022 salary being invested is $330k/year I used YOUR numbers.
If that is what he AVERAGES going forward, its life changing money.
Read my post. Ballplayers have agents. Those agents are responsible for protecting their income. Most are attorneys themselves. They hire good tax attorneys and help their players to create trusts and make investments so that they keep the money they make.
I posted what I do with my 7 figure salary. If an idiot like me can hire the right people and pay under 4% in total tax burden, you can be sure that players with many more resources at their fingertips are too.
I am sorry that your salary level doesn’t give you those options.
@Pads Fans We’re SURE you make a 7-figure salary lmfao
Keep Martinez 100% and Clevinger, let Manaea walk. Stammen has been a leader in the bullpen but seems to have fallen off this year. Pierce is basically on the 60 day DL more then he is actually available and Suarez is good in stretches.
Tim Hill, Crismatt, Austin Adams, Hader, plus all the other guys that go up and down are solid arms.
The Padres need another #2 #3 type starting arm this offseason. Darvish has been lights out this 2nd half, Joe has not been 1st half Joe, Snell has shown he can be legit at times, Clevinger has been surprisingly decent coming off of TJ, Manaea has been a nightmare 2nd half. There is a possibility of there being two of these arms walking or being moved and they need to be upgraded. A.J loves to make big, splashy moves maybe DeGrom shows up in the Brown and Gold next year…
Clevinger has not been decent! He has a 4.23 ERA this season!
How many of the pitchers that Padres cast off will sign with the Dodgers and become 2023 Tyler Anderson?
BringBackTheRoids;
Might it just be possible that the legendary POBO in unearthing and signing future HOF’ers as prospects, might one of these years actually have a pitcher come out of his farm system that can be a starter?
Your team is now well over the pseudo-salary cap. Every year Preller makes numerous “splashy” moves you refer to, and more than half of them underperform…..which is why he keeps having to make more “splashy” moves.
P..S. A week or so ago Joel Sherman of the NY Post compared the “splashy” trade deadline moves Preller made (Josh Hader, Juan Soto, Brandon Drury, and Josh Bell) to the so-so (and inexpensive both in salary and prospect capital) moves the Mets made (Daniel Vogelbach, Tyler Naquin, Darin Ruf, and Mychel Givens).
The stats actually favor the Mets by a bit since the trade deadline. And again, the moves they made were substantially less expensive.
Sam,
I am not going to disagree with you at all! It gets old getting hyped about the farm system, watch these guys finally get a shot and do well, then watch AJ drain the farm for a massive trade. I think this deadline deal was more explosive than results. IMO Duruy was the steal in all of it. If anything the big dogs in the deal have been a lot of hype with minimal results.
AJ is hopefully on the hot seat but every year everybody hopes that. I guess he and ole Pete must be tight!
BringBackTheRoids;
From what I’ve seen well over half a century, championship MLB teams aren’t built by filling holes. They’re built by starting with a plan for the type of team the FO leader envisions. Forming a partnership with a manager and coaching staff that can bring along the players for that sort of team. Then going about the task for drafting and signing young available players that fit the requirements, working with them – rejecting some and giving more playing time to others. At that point if a few holes need to be filled and there’s a surplus of skilled players in an area, trades can be made. Otherwise some FA acquisitions – but be careful about the money as capital is needed to continue to provide and pay for the people that can draft and develop more players in the farm system thjat can step in as they older players may elect to leave in FA.
Preller is a lot like Cashman, but more splashy. Both have should have been replaced years ago. In circles. Well…..at least they’re better than the Rangers and Rockies that do the same thing with worse results.
Adams? Not sure I would include him. Hope they retain Clev and Nick and even Johnson.
My decision to eat sardines or chicken breast today was more difficult
He should opt out. There’s plenty of teams that would pay him 40 million for 4 years to start in this upcoming off season, and that’s a low end number. If he were to return next year and have a bad season, he becomes a 33 year old pitcher on the scrap heap looking back with regret.
NM has a 4.30 as a starter, with a 47/27 K/W. $40M for that, and his expected decline? I think he can do marginally better than his current $21M/3, but $40M/4 would be an overpay, imo.
Is 10 million really an overpay in this market? Keep in mind that Boston signed Nathan Eovaldi to 17 million a year prior to the 2019 season after he posted similar metrics to NM (in a smaller sample size) in late 2018.
In comparison, a lot of high leverage relievers like Martinez are making 7-8 million already. This season has proven that the search for starting pitching is back at a premium demand. Being that he will be 32 most of nect year, I believe his agent could sell that forth year in a contract.
BTV says he opts out. Padres fans on here and other places seem to want him to stay which means he opts out. His stats say he can probably beat his remaining contract. Going to be interesting.
I don’t know. The numbers don’t look great for him.
The 110 ERA- he has, which is a park adjusted ERA suggests that he is 10 percentage points worse than their league’s (AL or NL) ERA for that season and the xFIP is poor rating.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he tests the waters but he should take whatever guaranteed money he can get and try to improve the numbers for next season.
I think he’s faulted here for being used in “low leverage” situations when he initially moved to the pen, but what they were doing was piggy-backing him and basically using him as like a hybrid starter who entered in the middle of the game to finish it out. They eased his transition to RP by working him down from throwing like 3-4 innings every 4-5 days to where he could throw 1 inning on back to backs. It wasn’t like they didn’t trust him in leverage, it was more like he was just handling innings 6-9 regardless because of the transition.
He’s currently arguably the Pads highest leverage reliever in the sense that if they have trouble at any point, he’s the guy they go to, so he’s not just limited to the 8th inning. For example, last night he came in to pitch in the 6th because there were 2 runners on and the Cards were threatening.
Even if he’s not a mid-rotation starter, there is so much value in his versatility. I really wish he doesn’t opt out, but that unfortunately makes me think he will.
Martinez is best advised to stay put at least for another year. He may get a 1 or 2 year offer at a higher AAV, but his current contract is arguably suited perfectly for him at this stage. Kill it next year and opt out, but it’s too early for that now.
He’s not likely to make $24 mil over the next handful of years anywhere else. Play on a contender in a beautiful city. Play ball.
It’s a really risky call, but I think without the long track record he just takes the bird in hand on this one. On a pitching needy team he can probably pass off as a 3 he has decent numbers. I don’t think he’s gonna get money on the market as a closer and it’s risky to pass yourself off as a swing and take a higher valued long term deal. Best of luck either way Nick.
I think he leaves. I won’t use statistics or attach any links to support it…just a gut feeling.
If you are a Padres fan and not on Nick Martinez’s payroll, ask yourself: “Do I want Martinez to opt out?” If the answer is no, he will. If the answer is yes, he won’t.