Confirming what most rightly expected to be a foregone conclusion, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said at today’s end-of-season press conference that the team will “definitely” make a qualifying offer to free-agent catcher Willson Contreras (Twitter link via Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). That much was widely assumed from the moment the team surprisingly opted against trading Contreras prior to the Aug. 2 deadline.
An exact amount on this year’s qualifying offer, which is set annually at the average of the game’s 125 highest-paid players, has not yet been determined. Last year’s qualifying offer clocked in at $18.4MM, and in 2020 it was set at $18.9MM.
Any player rejecting a qualifying offer is then subject to draft-pick compensation, meaning a team choosing to sign him will be required to surrender at least one pick in the following year’s draft (in addition to potentially forfeiting resources from its international bonus pool. Teams that receive revenue sharing would forfeit their third-highest selection to sign a “qualified” free agent. Non-revenue sharing, non-luxury tax paying teams lose their second-highest pick and $500K of international bonus pool space. The six teams that paid the luxury tax this year — Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, Padres — would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks as well as $1MM of international pool space. The Cubs, meanwhile, would receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of next summer’s draft — typically in the No. 75 overall range.
The Cubs will still have the remainder of this month and an exclusive five-day window to negotiate with Contreras following the completion of the World Series (as all teams do with their pending free agents). That said, Contreras, who’ll be 31 next May, has been vocal about his desire to remain in Chicago for several years now. No extension has materialized.
In all likelihood, Contreras will hit the open market and sign with a new club — presumably one seeking more offense behind the plate. That’s not to disparage Contreras’ glove; he boasts plus arm strength and one of the fastest pop-times in MLB (1.93 seconds, per Statcast, good for 11th out of 83 catchers in 2022). Contreras, however, generally draws average to below-average marks for framing pitches, and Baseball Prospectus dinged him slightly in 2022 for his work blocking pitches in the dirt (although that was an anomaly and he’s typically graded better than average in that regard).
Broadly speaking, Contreras is far from a liability behind the plate, particularly when it comes to controlling the running game. He doesn’t grade as well when it comes to stealing strikes for his pitchers (and for ensuring that borderline strikes are accurately called), but he’s still a quality option behind the dish — particularly when considering that few of his positional peers can match his work with the bat. Contreras hit .243/.349/.466 with 22 home runs, 23 doubles and a pair of triples in 2022.
Contreras’ 132 wRC+, indicating that he was 32% better than the league-average hitter at the plate, ranked fifth among the 70 catchers who took at least 100 plate appearances in 2022, only narrowly trailing Adley Rutschman (133) and Tyler Stephenson (134) for third on the list behind Contreras’ own brother, William, and Toronto’s Danny Jansen. Given that the average catcher was 11% worse than the league-average hitter, Contreras was about about 43% better at the plate than the average backstop, by measure of wRC+. The only catchers to produce more round-trippers than Contreras were Cal Raleigh, Will Smith and Salvador Perez.
Precisely where Contreras lands in free agency, at this point, is anyone’s guess. He won’t know how things will play out until he gauges interest around the league, but there’s no shortage of teams that could look to upgrade behind the plate. Only seven teams — Braves, Jays, Phillies, A’s, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners — received offense that was better than that of a league-average hitter from the catcher position in their lineup this season, so even with draft compensation attached, Contreras should command a strong multi-year deal.
Did anyone really think they wouldn’t?
Well now that they are there’s almost no chance he lands in STL
Looks like he’s going to get close to 20m next season. Can’t imagine why a team would toss away high pick, then massive amount of cash for what just a few years ago wasn’t that good of a catcher, only because catching in general doesn’t hit all that well league wide.
Pitch framing will be gone in 2024 when MLB institutes automated ball and strike calling. Strong game calling, arm, and bat will be what matters.
I agree, although 2024 seems aggressive for implementation.
As a Cub fan, I wish him well. Wonder now if the Mets regret not trading for Willy and Robertson? Mahalo!
Mets miffed the trade deadline by nibbling instead of attacking it like true World Series competitors.
Agreed they should have bite the bullet and traded for contreras and a left handed reliever vs Vogelbach and ruf. They got what they deserved, losing to a team that actually did push their chips in, future be darned
Does Contreras plus a lefty reliever make enough of a difference to say that the Mets are still alive right now if they have them? Even with Contreras they likely are headed home now, just minus whatever resources they would’ve given away for a couple months of Contreras.
Could have made the difference between first place and a wild card spot…. So yeah… would have made a difference.
@Cosmo2 The Mets would have taken atleast 1 game over the Braves with Contreras filling in over McCann. You can fool a lot of people but you can’t fool me. The Mets screwed up and their catching was awful all year. McCann needs to be gone and Nido needs to be played as a backup, not as an everyday catcher. The Mets should of been playing the Phillies right now in the second round rather then sitting on their couches and eating potato chips
If the Mets had won just one more game they’d still be alive because they would have gotten a bye by winning the division.
Could have made a difference sure, but would it really?
I’m not trying to fool anybody. I’m not so sure Contreras guarantees them a victory against the Braves, I don’t see how you could know that.
But the addition of Contreras wouldn’t guarantee them one more victory. It just wouldn’t. I know it seems like an obvious fact to some that it would but I’m not so sure.
His assumption has an xFeel of 4.2.
They probably would’ve made the difference that the Mets would’ve been resting at home while the Braves played the Padres in the wildcard round.
I sure do admire your stubbornness to stand by your statements and accept that your season is over and your team still has the prospects the may just fizzle out and never see a day in the majors. I guess trading out a far below average hitter for an above average hitter doesn’t help teams win games, as neither does adding another solid relief pitcher to your bullpen? Also, the Mets looked like a team with no heart. Willson plays the game with his hair on fire and may have inspired some better play from his teammates. But enjoy your offseason…
They would have likely won an extra game at least in the regular season, thus would have received the bye rather than their annual Choketober.
I don’t think it’s that simple. Maybe Contreras means an extra win, maybe not. There’s no real reason to consider it to be a sure thing.
Either they drinking that kool-aid or they have a crystal ball
…. but the braves beat them followed by the Padres… i could say the same about the Cardinals but i know how to take the loss
Why would you assume it wouldn’t have made a difference? One thing’s for sure. What they had, wasn’t enough.
No, Contreras doesn’t guarantee them one more victory. And prospects aren’t guaranteed to work out.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs end up resigning him.
as a Cubs fan I would be extremely shocked, he is as good as gone. I will be sick if he signs in the division.
Molina is retiring. Its not out of the question.
I wouldnt’ be surprised by anything, there are 2 opposing forces in play here. Willson has made it pretty clear he prefers to stay at Wrigley, but the Cubs front office hasn’t acted very interested in keeping him. So I think unless Willy is willing to ink a team friendly deal to stay he’s going to be out.
I think the Cubs were demanding Matt Allan which was way too high a price. Especially since he is their only real pitching prospect
@Lone Ranger Matt Allen hasn’t pitched in 3 years, hes damaged goods at this point. I consider him a non-factor
After the Crow Armstrong for Baez trade the Mets weren’t getting taken to the cleaners again by the Cubs. And maybe, just maybe it cost them.
Or was it getting swept by the Cubs in September that cost them the division title?
The world will never know…..
No we know both are very true statements.
We don’t know that not making the Contreras trade cost anything. We simply do not know that.
The debate hinges on whether or not they could have gotten more than an2nd/3rd round sandwich pick for Contreras. Idk what was or wasn’t offered but I do know it was a seller’s market and that Contreras had just been the starting catcher for the NL All Star team.
The fact that Contreras is a catcher, is a huge factor. It’s not like trading for someone that plays any of the other positions, or even a pitcher.
The trade deadline is late in the season. A new catcher, trying to work with a pitching staff that he’s unfamiliar with, and who’s unfamiliar with him, could blow up in a team’s face.
The Giants were talked about as possibly getting Contreras, but I just didn’t see that as much of a possibility, because of the inherent problems.
Add in the fact that Contreras does not have a good reputation as a receiver. Teams aren’t going to give up much value on a gamble as big as that. He probably had more value in the offseason.
Tell me again how being selected to the All-Star game matters to a GM… Joc Pederson needs his ego stroked.
You’re also doing a fabulous job of showing this site that you have no idea what supply and demand means. Keep up the good work and the well thought out posts.
There were no available catchers who were better than Contreras.
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I hope the Cubs can use the qualifying offer as leverage to re-sign him as a DH/back up catcher/third option at first.
Fans will argue contreras is a starter but the reality is he is not good at managing pitching staff. However he is a adequate catcher in the event Gomes misses significant time (developing pitching is a priority) and he can easily become someone’s caddy next season so he can focus on hitting.
I’d go contreras DH, Castro on a minor league deal and let Gomes develop out young pitching.
Agreed. I really like Willy but he is not an asset behind the plate. Sure he can give spot starts but his receiving, defense, pitch calling is just not where it needs to be for a young up and coming pitching staff. I wish Jed could trade for a backstop like the A’s Murphy. Maybe Contreras takes the QO, has a very strong first half in 2023 and is then traded. Mahalo
I think him and Stroman would make a strong pair with Gomes catching Hendricks, Steele, Thompson and Wesneski… having Castro helping develop guys in AAA then come up when Gomes gets eventually hits the il to back up contreras.
I love love love contreras bat, defensive movements but his connection with pitchers is something to be desired. A simple look at pitchers splits imo cements my case.
Gomes will be 36 next year. He hasn’t caught 100 games since 2018. The Cubs will need a catcher that can catch as many games as Yan will. Gomes can still “develop” pitchers catching 2-3 times a week.
Manny Pina’s probably available from the Braves. Would give you guys a mid 30’s tandem of creaky semi-old catchers. Intriguing, no? Yeah….probably not.
If you think Contreras has even a 1% chance of accepting the QO I have some beachfront property for sale in Arizona if you’re interested.
Would Contreras be willing to move from catcher? All those years people expected Posey to be moved to 1B, but Posey insisted he remain a catcher. Granted, Posey behind the plate was a huge asset, and the best way to get full value, which is a different story in Contreras’ case.
Also, DH/back-up catcher isn’t going to command as much salary as a #1 catcher. But if Contreras insists on being the main guy behind the plate, I wonder if that will diminish the list of teams interested.
there’s no such thing as a backup catcher
His value drops if he isn’t a catcher. His stats are subpar for first.
He has trouble with balls in the dirt behind the plate. Don’t think he’d do well at first with so many throws bouncing into the dirt.
Pru: Might be easier for him to dodge them as a 1BMan. No more getting clipped by those hard old baseball’s in the dirt………….
Catcher ERA- Gomes 3.69, Contreras 3.99
Let’s give Gomes credit for the ERA difference for half of the games. That’s 81*.3= 24.3 runs. Yan probably won’t start that many games and the entire ERA difference is not truly attributable to him, buts let’s be generous and give it to him.
Now let’s look at the offensive difference using BR: willy +20, Yan -11. That’s 31 runs. I’d want a situation similar to this year with Contreras and Gomes sharing the catching.
6/130 deal coming up.
He’s definitely not getting 6 years. Maybe 5/95 with an option for a 6th year.
You’re smoking something if you think 6/130 is in the cards. He’s going to get a 4/68 tops.
Pads is high and you are low. I will say between 80-100 million. Cubs would offer your deal someone will offer more. Drasco, let’s make it clear, I am not saying that he is worth much more than you suggest, I am just saying that he will GET more.
I don’t see it because I honestly feel most good teams do not view Contreras’s as a catcher. Good teams know the value of pitcher/catcher chemistry and that is Contreras weak point. I love him
As a DH/spot starter and a guy who can adequately handle a rotation temporarily but he isn’t a franchise catcher, ie he isn’t Molina, Moldenado, realmuto etc.
He’s a DH who you feel really good about catcher more often if your primary catcher goes down… you know you’re pitching will suffer with Wilco receiving but on short stints the offense will make it up.
It just takes one team for him to get more, maybe a surprise team like Marlins, Rockies or Mets. You are right, be is best used as a 50 percent catcher and 50 percent DH. You pair a developing star pitcher with a defense first catcher but some veteran pitchers will do just fine with Contreras and his offense is first-rate for a backstop.
Contreras can easily get 4/80 or a lower AAV over more term. Minimum though is probably is $20 AAV or $80 total.
I think he can get $80 million. Rockies seem like a team that would do that.
Anywhere but the Cardinals, please.
I think he may end up with the Cardinals
He called Quintana about the Cardinals
Cardinals have an obvious need with Ivan Herrera a few tears away and Andrew Kizner not exactly wowing with the bat. I don’t see them forfeiting that draft pick though, they never do
Tigers, too. It depends on how Harris feels about him.
Donny: He can room w/Baez. They can talk about the glory days of 2016 while they count the money they’ll be stealing from the Tigers. If baseball doesn’t work out for him, he can always try for a role in Castaway II. He’s a shoe in for the volleyball gig.
I’m ok with the way this plays out, either way. If Willson stays, the Cubs will be strong behind the plate. It also gives the Cubs another year to evaluate what they ‘might have’ in Miguel Amaya Also everyone is overlooking PJ Higgins who is a decent backup.
@drasco036 Hey buddy. You still think trading Contreras would have ruined the Cubs’ chances of signing him long-term and that it would have negatively impacted what teams offered the Cubs for their future trade chips?
Ultimately, this gives Contreras the chance to back up his words.
The QO just screws Contreras….and reduces the teams that would go after him not to mention his potential earnings. Way to treat a player who gave his all and wanted to stay.
Business is business…
Contreras played his worst defense and cared more about his offense than working with his pitcher this season, thst on him.
I love Contreras but I’m not blind to his short comings, he’s a plus DH and a below average receiver behind the dish. If I’m a competitive team, now way I sign him as a primary backstop. He’s a DH/back up catcher. Not vice versa.
Contreras saw a significant amount of time at DH this year. He started only 72 games behind the plate and 39 games at DH. I wouldn’t call that a back-up catcher, but certaintnly not the given starter.
Way to try to keep him. Without it, no way the Cubs will match. Plus, Cubs need the extra pick.
It’s totally unrealistic to expect the Cubs to forego an extra draft pick just to be nice to Contreras. The players agreed to the QO system, and he knew the Cubs would be issuing him one. He can always accept, and go into free-agency next season without it.
Agree.
Why is it unrealistic? The Dodgers did it with Kershaw. The White Sox did it with Rodon. The QO only matters if you don’t sign the player anyway.
The WSox were absolutely not doing Rodon a favor by not issuing a QO. They gambled that Rodon was not going to be healthy enough to justify the QO salary, which turned out to be a mistake.
The Kershaw situation was atypical. A sure fire HoFer that has been the face of the franchise for over a decade, is not comparable to Contreras in the slightest. It was close to guaranteed he was going to re-sign anyway.
All 30 teams teams in baseball probably issue the QO to Contreras. To think any team is going to hurt their progress for a favor is indeed unrealistic.
There was lots of speculation that the White Sox had a handshake no QO agreement with Rodon. That that’s part of the reason they were able to get him for so cheap.
Speculation?
And in the words of Samuel Goldwyn, a handshake agreement is not worth the paper it’s written on.
I’m guessing they got him so cheap because he had an ERA+ of 80 over the previous 2 seasons.
Not sure why they would promise that. since, if they expected him to blossom into a QO-worthy guy, or thought he wouldn’t, why make that commitment, where they lose either way?
But if that’s that the way the WSox are run, agreeing to not issue a QO, literally hurting the club, no wonder they’re sitting at home during the PS.
From the thread about the Dodgers not QOing Kershaw: “ Pitchers are like sales guys. Good one’s are invaluable. Give those guys their space & your respect.” Maybe the White Sox were simply acknowledging Rodon’s contributions while giving him his space. Evidently the Cubs have chosen not to do that with Contreras.
I won’t argue about something that seems logical, but without accurate info as to what the Sox actually did. You could be right, and maybe they did do Rodon a favor. That makes no sense to me, nor do I think any GM/PBO should run a ballclub that way.
And if you are right, then I think both the Kershaw and Rodon situations are outliers. I don’t think other clubs would have done that, since they lose a valuable pick. Money is one thing, since it doesn’t hurt the team, where losing a draft pick does.
1. They aren’t screwing anyone. The QO was mutually agreed upon by both the league and the MLBPA. Extending it is not disrespectful and declining to extend it is not respectful no matter who the player is (I’m looking at you Kershaw).
2. He still can stay.
He stays for 20m/year
Hoyer also went on to add that water is wet.
It’s not. It makes things wet. Fire makes things burnt. But is a fire burnt? No.
Cubs management, Jed Hoyer, screwed up by not trading him before the deadline. If he would accept the qualifying offer then Jed will try to trade him again and will end up eating some of the salary. The Cubs need new management not some pawn of the ownership
Jed tried. Mets offered their Orgs 15th or 20th prospect for Willy. The comp pick will be better than that.
I don’t know what the Mets or anyone else may have offered but the reality of the situation is Contreras would have netted someone between Brown and whoever the cubs got for Givens.
Mancini was the player most similar to Contreras and all the Astros had to give up for his services was Jose Siri. That’s why the Cubs kept Contreras, because, as you said, the compensation pick, ticket sales and potential leverage was more valuable what was offered
“Ticket sales and potential leverage” are worthless.
Congratulations on posting the most ignorant statement on this board….
I guess the Cubs should have just accepted Chayce McDermott and Seth Johnson for Contreras because those were the type of offers the Cubs were getting…
Beats a 2nd/3rd round sandwich pick.
Does it though? The Cubs nabbed Naizer Mule in the fourth round of draft this year and at just 17 has cracked our top 30.
And it’s not just the pick but the extra money as well.
Also, believe it or not the Cub have guys in the front office that are more knowledgeable about baseball than you or I so if they believed what was offered didn’t justify a trade then I’ll tend to believe them.
NL All Star starting catcher in a seller’s market. They could have beaten a 2nd/3rd round sandwich pick.
Obviously they could not have otherwise he would have been traded but discussing this with you is like arguing with a child. You’re wrong, everyone knows your wrong, they tell you you’re wrong but you’re too disillusioned with you’re own ignorance you think you’re right.
Pretty arrogant if you to suggest that you know more than Jed Hoyer, Carter Hawkins and the rest of the Cubs organization, especially given the fact you have no clue as to what teams were offering for Contreras.
1, of*
2. You seriously think no one was offering more than a 2nd/3rd round sandwich pick for the NL All Star team’s starting catcher?
He’s not accepting the QO
Don’t understand the hubbub over him, but Cubs fans tend to get like that over a player they take to their collective hearts.
Not a stat guy other than for general ballpark measurements. For that I look to fWar. In 2022 Mr. Contreras came in at 3.3 on 487 PA’s. Ties him in that measurement with Cedric Mullins, Merrill Kelly, and Gerrit Cole. Not too shabby.
Of course his value is as a catcher, and a catchers’ main value to a team is handling their pitching staff and calling a game. There’s no stat for that.
Assume he’ll stay with the Cubs. He wants to be there. The fans want him – and ownership listens some to that. The money only matters if he’s stopping the team from making other moves that their FO thinks will benefit them more. They’ll all probably work around that.
with decisions like these Hoyer maybe gm of the year.
I guess keeping Hendrix and his arbitration must be an all nighter for him.
@citizen. Who is Hendrix?
I hate that the draft pick compensation system still exists. Give the teams losing players sandwich picks for all I care, just stop actively taking them from teams that are willing to spend money.
Why though? If you actually wanted to keep him that would have already happened. Shame they are doing it purely for a pick. You didn’t want to keep any of those players. Baez, Bryant, Contreras, but you kept Heyward?????
Heyward had no trade value. They are finally eating the last year of his deal and he is finally gone. Also Willy is a below average catcher and an average hitter. Not worth a long term extension for someone who catches half the time and does not put up typical DH numbers.
At this point you should be happy with whatever positives you can get. The Cubs are bad and worse off without Wilson. So the option was to give him a big extension to Heyward because he had no trade value with ? That’s silly. They all had trade value but that sad excuse for a front office squandered all of their values. Contreras had plenty of trade value. Instead you kept them both and got nothing for it. Deserved is what it sounds like to me. Like the Midwest version of the Yankees. We know your players are bad but this self inflated idea or ego of the team somehow boosts the value of bad players. Why don’t the Cubs try to develop and sign their players they promote instead wasting 30 million each year on hopes. Each player that the Cubs had that had big value, they squandered it all with them.
Cubs are bad? That is relative because they planned on being bad lol. It would be different if you were a team like the CWS where you were a WS favorite and stunk the whole year. Cubs did not give Heyward an extension, that was a FA signing. Heyward was also 26 when he signed the deal while Willy is going to be 31 in May. Not saying Heyward was a good signing (because it wasn’t), I’m just saying there is a pretty large difference between the two.
Jed and Carter have done a great job building the org backup where they should be able to compete for the Central in 2024. Cubs have built up their system that was like 29 out of 30 back in 2020 to now a top 10 system. No, they don’t have an absolute stud down there, but they have never been deeper in depth. They also have money to spend on some FAs this off-season and next. Maybe one of the big 4 SS along with an SP (Bassitt, Rodon, Senga). Also with the Cub’s depth, they could go out and trade for a player as well. It should be an interesting off-season for the Cubs.
Also, how can you say the front office did not get anything when trading those guys? Baez got back PCA who is now a top-30 prospect. Bryant brought back Canario who was #2 or #3 in MiLB in HR this year. Rizzo brought back Alcantara who has Judge-Esk power and is now a top-100 prospect. Could Theo have traded them in 2018/2019? Sure that is when I wanted to deal them, but Jed has done a great job at building this backup.
No trade value? You mean negative trade value.
Why wouldn’t they do it purely for a pick?
Should have traded him =/
I think Wilson Contreras ends up on n Arizona maybe Boston but I think his best home would be LA Angels.