According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, there’s a “good chance” the Dodgers will extend a $19.65MM qualifying offer to left-hander Tyler Anderson.
Teams have until 4pm Central on Thursday to decide whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players, giving the Dodgers about 24 hours left to make a final decision. If they indeed extend the offer to Anderson, he will have 10 days to talk to other teams and decide whether to accept it or turn it down.
The fact that Anderson is even a candidate for the offer speaks to what an incredible breakout season he had in 2022. Coming into the year, he had a career 4.62 ERA and fairly average peripherals with a 20.5 strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 39.1% ground ball rate. The Dodgers gave him a one-year, $8MM deal for his age-32 season.
That turned out to be a tremendous bargain for the club, as Anderson’s work in Dodger blue far surpassed any of his previous seasons. He appeared in 30 games and tossed 178 2/3 innings with an incredible 2.57 ERA, barely half of his previous average. His rate stats were still fairly similar to his previous ones, though he did drop his walk rate to a stingy 4.8%.
Where he seems to have made strides was inducing poor contact from opposing hitters. He was in the 98th percentile in terms of hard hit rate, going from 33% in 2021 to 28.5% in 2022. His average exit velocity was also 98th percentile while his chase rate was 95th and his barrel rate was 86th. At least part of this could be credited to his changeup, which he threw 31.6% percent of the time compared to just 24.6% of the time in 2021.
Regardless of how he did it, the improvements are enough that the Dodgers are considering a salary more than double what they paid a year ago. If Anderson were to turn down the offer and sign elsewhere, they would be entitled to draft pick compensation. Since the Dodgers paid the competitive balance tax in 2022, their pick would be pushed back until after the fourth round. A signing team would also be subject to the forfeit of at least one pick, with other penalties on the table as well, depending on whether the team was a CBT payer or revenue sharing recipient.
Whether Anderson would accept the offer or not is an interesting question. On the one hand, this is likely his best chance at earning a hefty multi-year paycheck, since he’s coming off a season that could well be the best of his career. On the other hand, he never had a salary above $2.5MM prior to getting the $8MM from the Dodgers a year ago. If he suddenly had a $19.65MM offer on the table, it would likely be hard to turn it down. Based on his excellent campaign, plenty of teams would be interested in signing him, though having to surrender at least one draft pick would temper their offers to some degree.
Good. Hope he accepts.
Agree, should offer, should accept. I do think three years 39 million is out there, but this match works great for both.
Wouldn’t it make more sense to offer a multi year at a lower rate? Its not like he would be expecting more than 3 years due to his past achievements.
Multi year would be ideal. He definitely had a qo worthy season.
They are better off overpaying him for one year or taking the comp pick than signing him to a big deal.
100%
It’s an interesting question. Teams have at least a rough idea of the money value of one year deals for older and iffy players. If you’re willing to give Anderson 1/19.65m, what’s the 2 year version of that? 2/32m?
Stellar season but risky long term investment . He has has been a 4+ era his whole career even outside the Rocky Mountains . Qualifying Offer is definitely a best case scenario for both sides see if he can replicate last years results
Teams won’t be concerned about his career era whatsoever.
Yup. Teams have been willing to spend big just on 2 seasons of improved results. Even 1-2/3 seasons as in the case of Rodon.
Never in doubt.
He’s kind of this year’s Robbie Ray with a huge breakout year right following several years of injuries.
But he’s nearly 4 years older than Ray so he won’t get anywhere near the contract.
I think he accepts.
He looked pretty healthy to me in 2020 2021.
They have an opportunity to dip under the luxury tax this year and reset their penalties. Is $20,000,000 for a one year wonder worth it? Good pitching is hard to come by and someo will pay him that or give multiple years
If he pitches like he did for Pit SF he is worth half that. If he pitches like last year 20 mil is a bargain. They unlocked him so it wasn’t a fluke so probably worth it. Should be closer to 2022 than previous years.
The Dodgers aren’t going to go under the LT in a year the Giants and Padres will be adding.
Good decision by Dodgers. They win either way.
The last Anderson the Dodgers offered a QO to after a (at the time) career year wound up being a disaster. I would hope the Dodgers don’t really expect that he could duplicate the season he had (especially the first half) if he accepts the offer
The lesson: stay away from those Andersons, they are bad news!
Here’s the reality on this Anderson. He doesn’t need to duplicate a career season to be worth the QO offer, he just needs to be good enough to hold down a spot in the middle of the rotation. Seems like a pretty good bet, and on a one-year deal, anything more is gravy.
But is he worth over $19 million even on a one year deal if he reverts back to his career normals of around 7 Wins and ERA of 4.5?
He made some changes to his pitch selection last year that contributed to the improved results. I don’t claim to know what players are worth, but given that the Dodgers did extend the QO to him as expected it was because they don’t expect him to revert. Add to that, the Dodgers are seriously short of experienced starters this year, he’s a workhorse by current standards, and a lefty. Add those facts to the value proposition. On the downside, he’ll probably be seeking multiple years.
Wins.
I had the pleasure of watching Anderson pitch this year live in Colorado. Seven masterful shut out innings. The guy can pitch. I suspect the Dodgers had something to do with that, and wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him in Dodger blue for the next 3 or so years.