Outfielder Jurickson Profar and right-hander Robert Suarez exercised the opt-out clauses in their contracts with the Padres, according to the MLB Players Association (Twitter link). The two players have now officially become free agents. Both players will take a $1MM buyout, with Profar opting for free agency over a $7.5MM salary for 2023, and Suarez leaving a $5MM salary for 2023 on the table. In addition, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that the Padres have declined their $20MM club option on Wil Myers’ services for the 2023 season, and Myers will also get a $1MM buyout.
After a solid performance in his first season in San Diego, Profar inked a three-year, $21MM deal (with a $10MM mutual option for 2024) to return to the Padres during the 2020-21 offseason. Given Profar’s lack of a consistent track record during his MLB career, the size of the contract was a surprise at the time, and any concerns immediately seemed justified when Profar struggled in 2021. However, Profar was a 2.5 fWAR player in 2022, hitting .243/.331/.391 with 15 homers and a 110 wRC+ while playing some respectable defense as the Padres’ everyday left fielder.
Profar’s three-year deal contained opt-outs after both 2021 and 2022, and Profar naturally didn’t exercise his opt-out after the 2021 season’s disappointment. In hitting the open market now, Profar’s three-year deal will end up earning him $13.5MM in total salary, signing bonuses, and his buyout.
Once regarded as the top prospect in baseball, Profar is entering his age-30 season and is now looking more like a solid regular, rather than the superstar status initially predicted for him almost a decade ago. It’ll be interesting to see what his next contract looks like, though his opt-out is a logical move since he’ll surely top the $7.5MM figure. Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long had an affinity for Profar dating back those top-prospect days (when Preller worked in the Rangers’ front office), and another new deal with San Diego certainly doesn’t seem out the question.
On the flip side, last summer’s Juan Soto trade dramatically overhauled the Padres’ outfield picture, and Preller might choose to continue the remodel with Profar and Myers both hitting the open market. There wasn’t any doubt Myers’ option would be declined, as the Padres have been trying to trade Myers for the last few years in order to get his contract off the books and ease up their luxury tax burden. Since a trade partner couldn’t be found for Myers and the Padres had to eat virtually all of Eric Hosmer’s remaining salary in dealing him to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, San Diego ended up surpassing the tax threshold for the second consecutive season.
Myers inked a six-year, $83MM extension with the Friars in January 2017, and though San Diego obviously expected more from its investment, Myers still provided above-average (109 wRC+) over the life of the contract. He hit .252/.327/.451 with 98 home runs over 2486 PA during the last six seasons, with injuries limiting his playing time in both 2018 and 2022. In what might be Myers’ final season with the Padres, he missed close to two months recovering from knee inflammation, and played in only 77 games — Myers still had a respectable 104 wRC+ from a .261/.315/.398 slash line.
After spending his first six professional seasons in the Mexican League and in Nippon Professional Baseball, Suarez came to MLB in 2022, signing an $11MM deal that broke down as a $1MM signing bonus, $5MM in 2022, and a $5MM player option for 2023. Though knee inflammation sent Suarez to the 60-day injured list, his rookie season was still quite a success, with a 2.27 ERA and a 31.9% strikeout rate over his first 47 2/3 innings in the majors. He carried that success forward with a 3.00 ERA in nine innings during San Diego’s postseason run, though Suarez ended on the sour note of allowing Bryce Harper’s decisive two-run homer as the Padres were eliminated by the Phillies in Game 5 of the NLCS.
Suarez (who turns 32 in March) stands to build on that rookie year with a multi-year contract in his return to free agency. He is another player the Padres will surely have interest in re-signing, but Suarez will draw plenty of suitors due to the vast number of teams eager to add velocity and strikeouts to their bullpens.
What about Nick Martinez?
Players have five days to make this decision, so he likely hasn’t made his decision yet
Pretty crazy that Profar’s uninspiring .243/.331/.391 line this year was good for a firmly above average 111 OPS+. We deadball era now lol.
Profars’ defense was pretty stellar though….it counts.
He is a bit of a flashy player, he plays hard, makes good plays, and has a clutch hit here and there.
I’m sure the Padres are still talking to him, I would probably suggest letting him go to another team.
100%. One can only hope we get back to normal next season. People complained about “too many homers” but this is worse, JUICE THE BALL!
It’s because he had 36 doubles. Doubles are a very underrated statistic.
I wonder if he could switch back to third base? He could match up with Milwaukee if he can handle it. Would think his numbers would definitely go up
Padres have to be happy Profar opted out. 2022 will go down as his career year and downhill from there. He’s not a bad player but not great either. His value is his versatility but he’s not a great 2B nor a great OF; actually, he didn’t even play the infield this year according to baseball reference.
If he wants a big contract his agent has to sell him as a super utility player who’s also a switch hitter. I see 3 years/$36M as his number.
Actually they’re not happy he opted out. If he hadn’t opted out they could have traded him for prospects. But with the opt out they lose him for absolutely nothing.
Limiting the shift will help a ton of players, so the 2022 mean will play much lower in 2023…..thank the lord…..
I know a lot of stat geeks aren’t a fan of War as a guide but it has value in comparisons of like players/positions, I’d still say.
At 3.1 war and only 1 year remaining, there was no way Profar wasn’t opting out. Nothing to lose really
He might have a down year and not get a chance at a 3 year deal next year.
I’d say the conversations have already been held about retaining him on maybe a 3/30 ish type deal, maybe sweetened with another opt out to keep $$’s down some.
Hopefully the same type of conversations are in play with Suarez and Martinez if he is thinking about it – he probably doesn’t opt out if they promise him a rotation spot though.
The problem is that WAR can’t be proven.
Edwin Star knew that in the late 60’s….. Star-adamus…?
Even so, if you compare 5 Lfers for example using the same metrics it seems to be a fair enough tool for that. I don’t think it translates as an overall baseball measuring tool for the entire league.
Should not at least be willing to allow that then under any other metric that you prefer, Profar was worth well over his 2022 salary (and yes, under his 2021) and was going to opt out.
Padres have at least broken even over the 2 years is all I’m saying.
Seriously? Why are you on a site discussing baseball when you don’t understand stats?
Probably better to just mute you. I don’t suffer fools well.
Lol. “Don’t suffer fools well.” Is Spencer Strider still a Super Two who was credited with two years of service time for 2022?
I can never tell if you actually believe this stuff or if you’re just trying to stir the pot.
We know you’re not serious. Read the CBA. Its in there. After Strider wins or comes in 2nd in the ROY voting he will gain 1 full season of service time so his service time would be enough to either qualify him for Super Two after next season or start his arbitration with just 3 years of control left.
Either way the reason that Atlanta extended him is because they would either be paying him in arbitration one year earlier and do so for 4 years or lose him to FA a year earlier.
That’s literally not what it says. The league would NEVER agree to that. What it says is if he places in the top 2 for ROY he is credited with a full year of service time for that season regardless of the actual number of days he spent on the roster. Since he spent the entire 2022 season on the ML roster anyway it wouldn’t have made a difference in the individual case of Spencer Strider.
And he still wouldn’t have been a Super Two. Super Two’s are players who DID have their service times manipulated, not the other way around. Kris Bryant and Marcus Stroman were Super Two’s after 2017 and 2016, for instance.
Try again. And stick to one account.
Not sure 100% which one of you is correct. Maury Brown at Forbes explained that its 1 additional year of service time. He went on to say that for that concession, the owners got the possibility of additional draft picks if they call up rookies and those rookies get 172 days of service time in that season. Since the actual CBA is not available on the MLBPA or MLB websites, that is something we have to accept the word of the guys writing the articles and they don’t all agree.
Lol in comes the “good cop” account. Right on schedule.
If (when) I am right, Baseball Reference will eventually update Rutschman’s service time to say he enters 2023 with 1.000 years of service time. If that happens, you have to delete all your accounts and not create any more 😛
And it changes by whomever is calculating the stat.
I thought the Profar contract was bad. Not only the money, the annual opt-outs (that would have been one thing if they undervalued him, but they paid top dollar). I probably joked in an entry years ago that the dude probably had incriminating photos of AJ Preller.
Last offseason, he works out with Fernando Ringworm Sr., yay for him. His outfield assists were great, but I hope he doesn’t let the door hit his ass on his way out.
If he gets dinged for ringworm complications, color me surprised.
Check the list of available FA LF options and take a deep breath about your thoughts on his value for Padres.
He was underpaid for 2022 based on performance.
I get you think opt outs are crazy and they can be but even with hindsight, Padres got value for what they have paid so where is the hate on this?
He just wanted to make the 1,000th lame ringworm remark. I know if I never hear another one I’ll enjoy baseball alot more.
Nevermind, Tommy Pham is now available to replace Profar – don’t overlook the dripping sarcasm there.
Would love to see Suarez in Philly.
No no no. Preller found him and gave him a shot. Just have to pay up a little due to the opt out.
Trying to corner the market on pitchers named Suarez?
Suarez to give way to Suarez in the 7th or 8th. Have to admit that would be cool.
No only the “R. Suarez’s”
He plays Lf.SS and 2B. I can see the Angels going after him.
Can he play ss or 2b? Sure. Should he? Absolutely not.
LF was a black hole of suck for us last year. Profar could make sense.
So would Mancini who can cover first against lefties.
Padres bring both these guys back. Nobody values Profar the way SD does, so there won’t be much jockeying for position for his services.
Hopefully preller tries to retain Suarez and Martinez if he opts out. Profar was fun, but it’s time to move on.
I’d like to see preller try to retain Suarez and Martinez (I’m sure he will opt out). Profar was fun while it lasted, but it’s time to move on from that inconsistent bat imo.
Profar back to Texas
Suarez can move up the coast, he would look great in Dodger Blue. Nice bullpen piece wherever he goes.
Suarez should land a decent payday
Profar to the mariners makes perfect sense
I’d take Profar to Cubs on a 2 year deal with an option year.
Would like Suarez back
Do not want Profar back.
New off season maybe Michael Conforto is a possibility. Sadly Joey Gallo seems a possibility as an ex ranger too or Nomar Mazara. Think David Peralta makes some sense. So does Joc Pederson.
Myers wasn’t even that bad considering the way some make out his contract as
He wasn’t that bad, he was much worse.
I am a Padres fan and I wouldn’t mind resigning Wil Myers. Yes, I am influenced partially by old time’s sake. Perhaps he can be the starting 1b again. Among Profar, Myers, Drury, and Bell, who really is the best choice to resign, if you had to bring back one?
Myers also plays corner outfield, and can play CF and 3b in a pinch. He also is a mopup pitcher.
Resigning Myers on a cheap deal for about 400 plate appearances might be a good choice.
Myers can’t play CF or 3B.
I’m not sure Myers even owns a 3B glove. He’s played 3 innings there in the past 4 years. In CF, he’s had 24 starts in the past 9 years, and 1 start in the past 3 years.
FWIW, as a RS fan, Myers was on my radar when Betts was being shopped, but mostly trying to get a salary dump for a platoon type of guy. But CF and 3B were never a consideration.
Why would the Red Sox take Myers in the Betts trade? It would be them dumping a bad contract in that trade not them taking one. And that’s exactly what happened (D. Price)
He can play catcher too. Of course it’s been 10 years since he played it
Myers was a better than average hitter while getting paid to be very good. That made Padres fans salty.
If they brought him back on a contract with the same numbers as the one Profar just opted out of, I don’t think anyone would complain.
It was $20 million hevwas getting paid for meh performance that got their panties in a bunch.
From their GMs comments, there is a good chance that he is brought back. Wonder how they will respond if that happens?
It sure made me salty. He was making $20 million and then was either hurt or hitting just a tad over league average. What we needed was .270-.280 with an .800 OPS and 20+ HR for that kind of money.
And that’s close to what you got so…
.254 and .781 with 16 HR avg and 112 OPS+ over 8 seasons.
Like I said, close. I didn’t say he got exactly that.
Myers is great on a one year $3 million contract, Ok on a one year $6 million contract, but the Pads paid much more
Standards have sure dropped…Profar has a wee bit better season than Bellinger at the plate and now he is cocky. Profar is a bust and has been since his TOP PROSPECT days.
Profar has a wee bit better season than Bellinger at the plate
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I’m just curious if you looked at the numbers before posting that?
Profar had an OPS+ of 111, while Bellinger had a 78. So Profar’s OPS+ was ~50% better. Or from a FG RC+ ranking, at a minimum of 300 PAs, Profar was ranked #108 and Bellinger was ranked #232.
You can make a argument for either player, if you want, but you cannot say Profar was a “wee bit better”. He was much, much better.
I did Joe. I don’t know advanced stats as I have said before. They are comparable players at the plate. Profar isn’t sh!!t. How good do you think he is anyway?
Joe, Keep your .238 career hitter. I don’t want him.
Profar was an above average hitter. Bellinger was one of the worst hitters that got 300 or more PA.
“Above average” sure ain’t what it used to be.
I think he would make a decent 2-year signing at maybe $18M/2, and I’d wager that he will get more than that.
But that’s not the point. Profar was way more than a “wee bit better” hitter last year.
Keep your .238 career hitter. I don’t want him.
==============================
And that’s fine, but it is also not the point. Profar hit .243 last year, while Bellinger hit .210.
25 more hits…A few more doubles….But less RBI’s…Less Homers…less stolen bases…
Even if you don’t understand stats like OPS+ and wRC+ that give you a more complete measure of offensive production, just looking at .210 with a .654 OPS vs .243 with a .723 OPS shows that the gap on offense is huge. It’s not a wee bit.
Its the difference between being non-tendered and hoping for a minor league deal and opting out of your contract to sign a 3 or 4 year deal at $8-10 million per season.
Biggest difference I see is Profar had about 25 more hits than Cody. Couple more Doubles. Less home runs. Less RBI’s, less stolen bases….Why are they not comparable??
TrumboJumbo;
I agree with you.
This site likes to figure out salaries by general, publicly available statistics. Arbitration hearings and even contract negotiations do this sort of thing, although teams – and now many players agents – have their own statistics.
I look at what a guy does on the field to help his team win….or not. Statistics have never accurately reflected that – but teams in-house computer departments are trying.
Profar is a nice player that’ll continue to get overpaid as Scott Boras is his agent. Myers would be a nice add for many teams (including the Angeles in LF) at maybe $15m a year. But he’s coming off years of $20m-plus.
–
I keep saying – you have to figure out the business plans of teams to get an idea of what they’re looking to do. Both these players are coming off seasons with the Padres – a team that puts a lot of stock in finding players in the draft, having them do well in the minors, but don’t have a clue how to work with them in the majors. So they bundle up multiple “can’t miss” highly-publicized prospects and trade them to a team that has a quality player they want to dump for salary reasons. The Padres do not have one home grown position player on their roster, and I doubt more than one or two of the pitchers are home grown. So naturally, they’re playing the luxury tax. That’s a strategy similar to the Yankees.
What will happen to Profar and Myers? I have no idea. It’ll be interesting to see what the Padres do. The trouble with these off-seasons is that people get bent out of shape over what a team does with one or two players. We have to wait till a bit before Spring Training to look at all their moves to get some perspective.
You don’t even have to look at the advanced stats to see that Profar was way better, just look at their slash lines. .243/.331/.391 for Profar compared to .210/.265/.389 for Bellinger.
Profar’s average and on base percentage are way ahead, which is why he was like twice as valuable last year. Bellinger also struck out about 50 more times than he did.
Cody had more RBI’s…More home runs…More stolen bases. It balances out. We aren’t even looking at defensive prowess either..I say Bellinger bounces back..
If you don’t understand the stats then just watch what happens this offseason.
Bellinger will be non-tendered and may get a couple million on a make good deal.
Profar will get 3-4 years at $8-10 million AAV.
That will tell you all you need to know about what teams think makes players better.
I understand the vital/pertinent stats….The ones that matter. And I know how to assess a players talent by watching him play. All is well.
BaseballisLife;
With the shortage of CF’s in MLB, a team such as the Marlins will happily give Mr. Bellinger more than a “couple million on a make good deal” because there will be competition for his services.
Doesn’t matter if he hits .110 / .135 / .200 / .350. He will help that team win games.
I feel like there are 2 factions. The first, think Bellinger’s early success was fluky and he is dunzo….The other, see’s his potential and wants him to correct himself and be the player so many know he can be. The more I think about the guy, and I have watched him very close the past 3 years, the more I think they keep him. Do or die time for Cody! I say he gets ONE more shot to make it happen! He has the tools, he just has to remember how to use them like he once did..
@Samuel Technically you’re wrong about the Padres not having one homegrown position player because essentially, Tatis is homegrown. He wasn’t originally signed by us, however he was 17 and had not yet play minor ball yet, so to that point you are wrong sir.
Tatis wasn’t homegrown.
How is he not? He developed in the Padres system? He didn’t play an inning of professional ball for the White Sox prior to coming over. He was a 17 year old kid who had yet to take the field. He is homegrown, if you say he’s not then please, tell me what you consider homegrown.
It’s not what I consider homegrown it’s the literal definition. A player who was originally drafted or signed by one team and has spent his entire career with that team.
Oh common TLH, stop with the politically correct bs. Yes he wasn’t signed by the Padres but was immediately traded to them before he even played an inning of professional ball for the White Sox. That’s why I said he’s technically homegrown. Yes we don’t need an English lesson on what a homegrown means, we all understand but Tatis is “technically” homegrown since he developed in the Padres system and no where else. A home run that bounces off an outfielders head is still a home run right? Or you going to try to argue me on that as well?
Actually I’m not because the rules say the ball has to touch the ground before going over for it to not qualify as a home run. Nowhere in the rules does it say a ball that bounces off an outfielder’s head and nothing else isn’t a home run.
I alone will make a third faction. I believe Bellinger was a stud and could be again .. IF … he gets away from L.A. He changed drastically there over just a couple of years.
He changed his diet for one, and now he looks like a 70 year old on an infomercial touting beet juice tonics. He needs to get some heaping midwest portions, southern fried, or tasty northeastern fixins’ and put some usable meat back on that frame. He might think he has more energy, but watching him play last the last year just made me think he was about to pass out halfway through each AB and even when he did make solid contact it just didn’t do anything. His Hard hit %, exit velo, and BB% dropped significantly in his mid-late 20’s and that just should not happen. He had one monster year after changing his diet and I think he was just using up the stored energy from his previous eating habit.
Most of this is with a tad of sarcasm, but he just doesn’t look like the same man he did before, and not in a good way. He should be at his peak, and instead he looks gaunt. I would still prefer to roll the dice on him as a Braves fan if the contract is good. He is a gusty player and hustles. Maybe a change of venues and vittles is all he needs.
BillTheThrill10;
I make a point about the Padres and that point is correct.
You want to talk about “technically” or not technically?
Preller has been there for 9 YEARS! There is a clear pattern.
Are you so childish and petty that you have to have to play gotcha?
That makes me wrong and you something?
Do you work for an American news outlet?
The ones that matter to the teams that are paying these guys are the ones you don’t seem to understand. The vital or pertinent stats the teams are paying attention to are WAR. OPS+. wRC+. wOBA. DRS. OAA. Plus a few I have listed below. And a bunch that are even more advanced that we don’t yet have access to online.
Things like RBI are rarely considered by a team. They are looking at BRS or Base Runners Scored percentage. What percentage of base runners did a hitter drive in, not how many total.
They are also more interested in things like extra bases taken more than stolen bases. Stolen bases are important if a player is on base, but at a .265 OBP its not even a consideration.
By watching them play you could tell that Profar put the ball in play more often, didn’t strike out near as much or swing at balls outside the zone as much, made contact more often and had fewer swinging strikes, and walked more.
The stats bear that out.
Profar struck out 15.9% and walked 11.1%
Belli struck out 27.3% and walked 6.9%
Profar Contact – 82.9%
Belli Contact – 76.0%
Profar O-swing – 27.0% (Out of zone)
Belli O-swing – 34.5%
Profar Swinging strike – 7.4%
Belli Swinging strike – 12.0%
Then you have the bottom line. The slashline.with OPS.
BA/OBP./SLG and OPS
Profar .243/.331/.391 for a .723 OPS
Belli .210/.265/.389 for a .654 OPS
Profar was better at hitting the ball (BA), getting on base (OBP), and hitting for power (SLG). That resulted in a 69 point higher OPS.
There is no question either from the eye test or any of the stats that Profar was the better hitter.
Belli played the more important position, CF and he was roughly league average. or a we bit better. 0 DRS and 6 OAA
Profar played the far easier LF and was roughly league average. 2 DRS and -5 OAA.
On defense I want Belli out there by a small margin.
Overall its no question either. Profar is just better.
Stats like WAR show that clearly. While WAR is terrible at comparing pitchers to position players, when you are comparing an OF to an OF or an infielder to an infielder its really good. One of the best tools we as fans have available to us.
The Padres took a different approach. They traded homegrown talent with great value but still just prospects to other teams for proven players. It worked. Other teams like the Guardians and Mariners are winning with those Padres drafted or signed players.
How long it can work for is another question, but Preller has shown the ability to build a scouting team that can evaluate and sign exceptionally good amateur talent.
Bellinger is just so disappointing at the plate he is lost so often. No idea why he is just so lost. He doesn’t come off as lazy or not interested. Just looks lost. I would think going to a hitting specialist over the offseason and just work everyday, but he seems just to be lost at the plate.
UGA_Steve;
LOL
You may well have something there.
Many decades ago basketball player Bill Walton went to play in Portland with a duffel bag full of vitamin jars and fresh vegetables. To put it mildly he got pushed around under the boards and was terrible. Finally he had to go back to eating protein as opposed to protein powder, along with a balanced diet.
Don’t get me wrong – I eat no red meat, dissolve protein powder, eat lots of fresh vegetables, fish, chicken, whole grain bread, etc. Swim a mile at a time a few days a week. Bicycle a minimum of 5 miles 5-6 days a week in the warmer weather. Lift light weights. Do Yoga / stretching 3-5 times a week for 60-90 minutes…..
But the thing is: I’m not a professional athlete competing against physically fit – in-their-prime monsters. And I can tell you that while my cardiovascular system is great (surprises doctors and nurses), I need help doing things like turning over mattresses.
I truly think you have something there. And don’t doubt the Dodgers know it.
Cody lives on Ice Cream and junk food. It is common knowledge to a lot of Dodger fans. His teammates give him crap for it all the time..
@Samuel Not childish at all. Just stating a fact. Are you so childish that you have to get butt hurt over a technicality? All I’m saying is you said they have zero, I pointed out that technically Tatis should count since the Padres developed him. That’s all I’m saying, call it petty, call it whatever you want it’s just a fact, sooo giiiirrrllll byyyyyeeeee.
There’s a bunch of rules for a home run though that would make or not make a home run. If a ball hit a bird and carry’s over, it’s a home run. It had help but it’s still technically a home run because technically it didn’t hit the ground. Tatis wasn’t originally signed by San Diego but still did play a single inning of pro ball with the white Sox’s so therefore is a homegrown player because the fact stated above. The trade can be the hitting a bird or the top of the player’s head to go over the fence. So I still stand by what I said.
Bellinger will probably get one or two years at $8 million per year, Profar might get the same.
Bellinger is an asset at CF due to his glove but not at 1B where his hit tool simply does not play. Profar is an asset as a utility. Belli plays better defense and hits for power, has speed, but his average completely sucks.
Marlins are perfect match
@BillTheThrill10 Bruh are you seriously arguing with the literal definition of “homegrown????”
No, but you obviously are.
I don’t make the rules I just enforce em.
Whatever you say Chad.
Not a single publication I have read has Belli making that much if the Dodger’s non-tender him. Most are low single digits like Ardaya. A make good deal. If he performs well in 2023, he would be going into his age 28 season in 2024. If he doesn’t he could be looking at minor league deals going forward.
Pretty much every publication is saying that Profar will get at least as much in AAV as he gave up in opting out over a 3 year deal.
25 more hits is a very large difference.
How many starting CF were there in baseball that hit .210 or less with a .654 OPS or lower and received 550 or more PA?
The only one closer was Myles Straw and he had an 11 point higher BA and played much better defense so he was actually valuable to his team. A 2.7 WAR.
Bellinger had a 1.2 WAR.
Your last paragraph is really the answer to the argument. No one has to like it but it is the reality.
Profar is looking at 3/30 as a minimum.
Bellinger is a non-tender waiting for a minor league deal with some incentives for making a team, etc.
Long Time, NO WAY Bellinger merely gets a minor league deal. We can debate many things, but I can GUARANTEE you that man signs a Major League deal. I don’t know for how long or how much. I also don’t know for a certainty that the Dodgers don’t keep him. But he will not merely get a Minors deal. No way no how.
Do you read the Athletic? Ardaya, the Dodgers beat writer for the Athletic is predicting that Belli is looking at a one year make good deal in the low single digits. Other writers have said he might get as much as $4-5 million or as little as a minor league deal.
Personally, I would sign him to a 1 year, $2-3 million deal with an $18 million option year knowing that I could cut him with little to lose if he continues to play as poorly as he has the last 3 seasons. If he rebounds even a little then I look like a genius.
Nobody understands those stats because there is someone( who knows) making assumptions about ballparks and what stats would be in different ballparks. Arenado had lower OPS+ stats because he played in Colorado. Same stats and now he is considered a god.
You don’t have to know advanced stats to see that Bellinger was one of the worst players in baseball and Profar was nowhere near as bad as him.
But once you do know them, you know WHY he was one of the worst hitters in baseball.
Don’t forget bad actor
I can see why they declined Myers.
The key to making this a truly happy ending is for Preller to resist the temptation to bring him back on a cheap 1 year deal. Time to move on.
He’s always been like that.
No more Myers, I’m so happy!
Will you be sad if they resign him to a 3 year deal for $7-8 million AAV to play 1B?
I don’t think he’s getting that kind of length coming off his last contract. I would think he’d be taking a 1 year deal to try to rebuild a little value
Yes.
A one year deal for $5-6 million with two million in performance incentives.
With Tatis in CF and Soto in RF next season, will the Padres bring back a LF that was just average overall? Or are they going to want a better option?
Is Jose Abreu a fit in SD at DH/1B? Or will they try to bring back Drury or Myers? Or both?
Suarez is a huge loss for that pen. Are the Padres counting on Pomeranz filing that hole now that he’s healthy or are they going to look to resign Suarez?
Good core of a team with lots of questions.
Myers shouldn’t be back. Profar is going to get a bigger payday and it won’t be in San Diego.
The new left fielder will come via trade. Martinez stays and Suarez goes. I’d love to see Mancini here.
Benintendi in LF and Mancini or Myers or Drury at 1b is my prediction.
Maybe they get Judge and I’ll come play LF for major league minimum. They can overcome my .000 average with that lineup.
Roster looking a bit thin over in Padre land with the FA’s if they all go
I am going to assume Profar walks, so among position players their roster looks like.
1B – open
2B – Cronenworth
SS – Kim
3B – Machado
LF – Azocar/Beaty
CF – Tatis/Grisham
RF – Soto
C – Nola
DH – open
Bench – Beaty/Grisham/Rosario/Campusano
I am pretty confident from Preller’s comments that they will bring back one of Myers, Drury, or Bell, so one of those positions is covered. If Drury, he can play 1B, 2B, 3B. LF and DH
In addition to re-signing one of those 3, sign Jose Abreu for DH/1B. Or Mancini for a cheaper and younger option. Or trade for Ian Happ to play LF.
I would be happy with that squad and I think they could win with that squad.
The bigger question for me is pitching.
Only problem with this is Beaty is free agent, he’s no longer with the team.
Did the Padres DFA him? Because he is just reaching arbitration for the 1st time this offseason.
He opted out Pads Fan near the end of September
mlbtraderumors.com/2022/09/matt-beaty-elects-free-…
Pads fans
DH Tatis, Jr.
C Nola
1B Open
2B Cronenworth
SS Kim
3B Machado
RF Soto
CF Grisham
LF Azocar
Sign Myers for one year $6 million.
Sign a really good starting pitcher.
Sign R. Suarez to a multi-year deal and an alternative really good relief pitcher
The Myers buyout was a no brainer and I’m curious to see what he’ll sign for and who will sign him. Maybe a one year prove it deal for 5m with the Red Sox
CLE would be a good fit because they need a RH power bat who can play 1B, DH, and occasional corner OF, and he’d play on a relatively inexpensive 1 or 2 year deal. Only problem is he has a reputation as a bit of a headcase which Francona would not tolerate.
How so?
Phillies have a TON of bullpen $ coming off the books…Jesus, Knebel, Hand etc
They have a decent bullpen core, would like to see a couple 2-3 deals added. And maybe a Hand or Robertson reunion…?
Gonna be a fun hotstove season as a Phillies lifer….
Would love to see Wil Myers in LF for Atalanta next yr.. but he feels like a Rangers player
I totally see him as a standout Rangers guy too. Standout meaning one of the vets and has a bit of a comeback season. Bochy tends to get the most out of his guys, guys like myers
Personally Sleepy Wil Myers should retire based on stealing from the Padres. However, he should probably sign with O’s.
. Tatis in LF. Grisham in CF. Soto in RF. Machado, Kim, Cronenworth, and RIZZO or Drury at first.
I don’t mind that lineup at all but would prefer Myers / Drury over Rizzo at this point. The age, $$ and all.
The wonderful thing about the off-season……
Depth charts are back in style and no teams are going to suffer injuries.
Rotisserie / Computer baseball!
A Rizzo homecoming? Other than Musgrove, Preller has not brought back any former Padres players I can think of.
Rizzo had a good 2022 season on offense with a .817 OPS and 131 OPS+. That would be a huge improvement at 1B for the Padres who combined put up a cumulative .696 OPS in 2022. Even if Rizzo declines his power, I can’t see his 2023 production in SD dipping much below his averages over the last 3 full seasons. That is a .833 OPS and 124 OPS+
He is a dead pull hitter and most teams employed a shift with 3 men on the right side of the 2B bag and one of them in shallow RF. That won’t be possible next season, so he should do better than the .224 BA he had in 2022 so those overall numbers should creep up.
He would hit fewer home runs in Petco than in Yankee Stadium with its little league dimensions in RF fence.
I am thinking from everything that I have read, that Rizzo is going to be looking for something with a similar AAV to what he opted out of and for 3 years, taking though his age 35 season. 3/45 or 3/48. Maybe with a vesting option year or two. Even if its the high end of that range, that’s cheaper than what the Padres have been paying Wil Myers for much greater production.
I am convinced. Tell Preller to make it so. …
Even giving up two draft picks? I don’t think your GM is going to do that for 2-3 years of Rizzo.
lds goat suarez can walk.
odd a international free agent can walk after 1 year but a draftee cant.
I hope they sign Drury; he may not be an everyday player, but he is a good DH, plus plays numerous positions.
Not surprised at all. Suarez is the one I would miss if he signs elsewhere.
Profar played well this season in the 2nd year of his deal after a disappointing 2021. He is hoping to get one more 3-4 year deal and was willing to give up $8.33 million to try for that one more big payday. He will probably get it. If I was Preller I would not be the one giving him the 3/27-30 he probably wants and will get somewhere..
I find it interesting that Wil Myers was among a group of players working out at Petco yesterday. So was Preller’s comments that he would like to resign at least one of Myers, Drury, or Bell. Hoping its Drury.
Drury played well!
Bell would be good pickup on a 1 year “pillow contract”.
No brainer to get rid of both Myers and Proffar.
Tatis Jr can play LF RF or CF
Sign or trade for 1 young, producing OF on both sides of ball.
1B?
C should be Luis Campusano
Adrian Morejon should be #4 or #5 Starter.
I have been a big Morejon fan since the signed him. That said, he should be given the shot at 4/5 but he still has to show that he can be a durable 5-6 innings guy and not get injured (innings limit in 23 likely) and perform the 3rd time thru a lineup.
If he can earn and keep that 4 spot the rotation will he in good hands as we can get someone somewhere to be a 5 even if it’s Martinez to keep him happy until he shows he deserves to be in the pen.
As for Tatis while he can play those spots and I actually was a proponent of putting him in LF in 2021 before it became a thing, his willingness to play there will be a factor and with his contract, don’t give me that ‘he will play where we tell him’ crap.
He has leverage to get what he wants so long as he performs.
He will play where they tell him. His contract doesn’t include a say in roster or lineup construction. And the suspension killed any leverage he might have had.
Ha Seong Kim is a better defensive shortstop in all respects. As long as that remains the case they need to keep him there.
Yeah you just keep thinking that you don’t have to cater to guy you owe over 300 mil to over the next 13 years.
If he is pouting and not happy and not performing you have a ln expensive bench player.
Ya know you COULD have just said Tatis is an issue in the Padres’ clubhouse cuz that’s basically what you’re saying only in more words.
I truly belief Tatis should be at DH the first half of the season. He has been out a long time let him focus on hitting and get his bat back to the elite thing of beauty that it was.
Why?
Avoid more injuries.
Quicker recovery of elite bat skills.
Kim is a better defensive shortstop.
Then if either Grisham or Azocar is sub 0.200 at mid-season, Tatis can shift to outfield.
Morejon had something like 65 IP in 2022. While he has great stuff, I am not sure he can lock down that #4 slot and be expected to make 30-33 starts.
Morejon has a 6 year career between the majors and minors. His career high in IP is 65.1 in 2018. He had 47.1 this year. Expecting him to make more than 10-15 starts would be naive.
Profar plays hard in a contract season…Syonara
Profar does a good job of acting he should take his talents to NY Yankees. He flops like an NBA player.
Profar should be let go to walk somewhere else.
Only thing keeping Profar with the Padres
is his status as an Ex Ranger scouted and drafted by AJ Preller.
Profar is so overrated,
He does not produce enough power and offense to be a corner OF,
That said, watch AJ Preller sign Profar to a long term deal for 15M-20M per year. Proffar is a decent utility guy or a 4th or 5th OF, but not a star player, not a clutch hitter for the playoffs that will win you crucial games and help your team advance in the playoffs.
Padres Ownership should veto any long term deals with ex Rangers players by AJ Preller.
It will turn out worse than the Eric Hosmer deal.
I read the many discussions about the Pads bringing back Profar, AJP’s long time affinity towards him, his pro’s and con’s, etc.. Well, if you want to put yourself in AJP’s shoes, think about having the Pads roster, and you’re putting together your pickup baseball team. You have All-Stars (or should be All Stars) at 3B, SS, 2B, and well, you have some options at 1B (another story). In the OF, you have a GG CF who you hope will have a rebound year with his bat, good enough there, you have a guy named Sota, in RF, and in LF, well, you can bring back Profar, or hmmmm, who do you have coming in off the bench, available to fill in?
Oh, yeah, Fernando needs a place to play. Well, he can go back to SS, but he’ll probably never equal Kim’s defense, so why would you weaken your team there? LF is open. So, do you bring back Profar, or put Tatis there. I’ll bet Tatis could do pretty well in LF, no? Or, heck, you could run Cronenworth in LF, and make Tatis and Kim a SS/2B combination, and have a pretty decent team.
There are LOTS of options that don’t involve Profar. I’d rather spend that 3 yrs/$30M at first base, where there is a need. Drury, Myers, open free agent market, should be able to find a decent 1B, or add some more green, and get a better one.
As far as Profar in the infield, yeah, he can play there, but he’s no rookie, and that experiment has long since failed. He’s where he needs to be, to be his best, i.e. LF or RF (he has the arm, maybe not the bat).
AJP only has $70M to play with, and paying for guys he doesn’t need, like Profar, won’t get the Pads to the W.S. next year. Profar will get paid (good for him and his family!), and probably do well, but for a team that needs him more than the Pads.
Just read in the UT that Profar is saying he thinks he deserves $15 million AAV. I think he just priced himself out of a job with the Padres.