Both during and after Martin Perez’s bounce-back season, the veteran left-hander and the Rangers shared mutual interest in a potential contract extension. The two sides have met for negotiations, and while no deal has yet emerged, Rangers GM Chris Young told the Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant that “we continue to have good conversations. We’re hopeful of getting something done, but we’re considering various options, including the qualifying offer. We understand that Martín will have value on the free agent market.”
Once the World Series is over, teams have five days to issue qualifying offers (a one-year, $19.65MM deal) to any eligible free agents. Perez fits the bill for eligibility, as a player who has never received a QO in the past, and who spent the entire 2022 season with one team. If a free agent rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, his former team would then receive a compensatory draft pick — in the Rangers’ case, that pick would fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round, so a pick around 75th and 80th overall.
That extra draft selection would be particularly useful for a Texas club that lost picks for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien (who both rejected QOs) last winter in free agency, and who might very well be prepared to lose more picks for other qualifying-offer free agents this offseason. The Rangers are expected to continue being aggressive as they look to finally get back into contention, and any number big names could be on the radar in Young’s first winter running the front office.
That said, starting pitching is the Rangers’ most glaring need, so a reunion with Perez could well be more valuable in the short term than the bigger-term value of a compensatory draft pick. If Perez did accept the one-year qualifying offer, nothing prevents the two sides from continuing to discuss a multi-year deal. Back in the 2019-20 offseason, Jose Abreu accepted the QO from the White Sox, and shortly thereafter signed a new extension that added two additional years beyond his commitment to the 2020 campaign.
These are some of the reasons that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco listed Perez as a borderline possibility in his recent preview of the qualifying-offer market, as both Perez and the Rangers face some interesting pros and cons regarding the QO. As Franco noted, Perez’s underlying metrics didn’t reveal any huge difference between Perez’s 2022 season and the southpaw’s more inconsistent past seasons. If the Rangers think some regression is coming, they just might not value Perez at the $19.65MM price point. While the Rangers would naturally be offering him more total dollars over the course of a multi-year arrangement, spreading out that cost over at least two seasons might be more palatable from the team’s perspective, especially if Texas is planning to start spending closer to the luxury tax threshold in the next year or two.
$19.65MM would easily represent the biggest single-season salary of Perez’s career, and he could opt to accept the QO simply to cash in on his comeback season. However, with almost $36MM earned over 11 Major League seasons, Perez has already banked quite a bit of financial security. Coming off four straight one-year contracts and entering his age-32 season, Perez might be looking for more stability at this point in his career, and might prefer a multi-year contract to a one-year pact, even at the higher $19.65MM price point of a qualifying offer.
Once that five-day period after the World Series ends, free agency officially opens to the entire league, and the Rangers lose their exclusive negotiating rights with Perez. The deadline for players to decide on accepting or rejecting qualifying offers doesn’t come until 10 days after the opening of free agency, giving Perez more time to ponder his choice if Texas did opt to issue the QO.
Resign him he’s worth it Rangers are in a good rebuilding spot and the team can be really good if they do all the right things.
Any team can be really good if they do all the right things.
My point.
Kind of common sense?
Basically.
I would rather the Rangers sign Chris Bassitt than Martin Perez. His HR/9 and whip will go back up next year. He’s a good pitcher no doubt, but only if it’s around 2/$24.
Bassitt has had a decent WHIP and ERA for awhile now.
Basset gonna cost way way mores
…..right thing?
Regression is coming on Martin Perez. The only question is how much. So, what is “the right thing”?
….not a hater…in 2020 Martin Perez ”ok” for the first 10 starts then got hit hard the last couple. In 2021 he did ok again the first 10 or so starts, then got hit so hard he was removed from the rotation. In 2022 he did not run out of gas, but he had 1 good season. The odds are against another.
Baron – Do you mean what appears right at the moment, or what is proven right after the fact?
But sure, Texas Rangers, re-sign a guy who suddenly has a breakout year at Age 31 after a decade of pitching to a 4.71 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.
What could possibly go wrong?
Rangers definitely think there’s regression coming. Watch his HR/9 jump back up a full HR from 0.5 to 1.5.
If it’s more that 3 years its too long and if it’s over $15mil/year it’s too much.
That’s what I’m looking at. His career HR/FB is a fairly consistent 12%+, and was 6.5% last year. He could easily double that.
I agree with you Beans. 3 years $39 is my prediction on what he will sign for. It’s more than what he’s made in his entire career.
Cursed – If the Rangers give Martin Perez anything more than two year they will be cursed.
I don’t know about him. The dead ball helped him this year but will the ball be juiced next year? Plus the shift is going away..
MLB owns the baseball factory and they can’t be happy with the league wide cratering of offense…..
The offense cratered because no one in baseball does anything but hit a homer or strikeout. Watching guys strikeout 20 times a game isn’t good baseball.
books – You know why that is? Because the stats analysts keep changing what they value.
Years ago walks were the “in” thing, so much so that we were told they are just as valuable as base hits.
Now walks aren’t valued at all, which is why this year saw the lowest MLB full season walks total since 2015.
And it sure ain’t because pitchers suddenly have better control.
Another reason is teams putting their best slugger at or near the top of the lineup. Aaron Judge batting leadoff is an abomination.
I think Houston just won the World Series =[
Altuve is going to Disney World.
And will be disappointed by all the “You have to be this tall to go on this ride” signs.
I hope he gets dizzy on the tea cups..
Make that Pena.
This guy was so bad in Boston for two years. We need to see if this year was an anamoly or if he is really improving. I can’t say he’ll be anything like he was this year until it happens.
If he is like the 2021 Martin Perez then subtraction is better than an addition at any cost.
This guy was so bad in Boston for two years.
==================================
Without looking, was Perez’ ERA+ better or worse than average, with the RS?
I would say worse
When Martin Perez is your ace, you have problems.