This week on Big Hype Prospects… baseball is happening, and we are eagerly awaiting the results.
Five BHPs In The News
Druw Jones, 19, OF, ARI (—)
DNP
Jones is on pace to make his minor league debut this spring. The second overall pick of the 2022 draft, Jones missed the season with a shoulder injury sustained during batting practice. He’s widely considered a Top 25 prospect despite never appearing in a professional game. Like his father Andruw, Jones profiles as a speedy, defensively able center fielder who might grow into serious power within a few years. Andruw Jones debuted as a 19-year-old in 1996 and posted a 31-homer, 27-steal campaign as a 21-year-old in 1998. The younger Jones is unlikely to reach the Majors this year, especially in a system with such an impressive collection of young outfielders. However, he has the traits to explode through the lower levels this season.
Ronny Mauricio, 21, SS, NYM (AA)
541 PA, 26 HR, 20 SB, .259/.296/.472
Mauricio profiles as a volatile prospect, one whose days in the Mets system might be coming to an end. His defensive ability at shortstop is fringy, but it’s the only position at which he has extensive experience. The Mets have opted to keep him at shortstop where he’s blocked long-term by Francisco Lindor. There’s no clearer signal of their intent to trade him (in this writer’s opinion).
As a hitter, Mauricio lacks discipline and breaking ball recognition. Despite a 26/20 campaign, there’s reason to believe his apparent power and speed will play down. For one, he’s not actually fast. He was caught 11 times last season and is 39-for-66 (59%) for his career. Although his max exit velocity would rank among the Top 50 hitters, his unrestrained approach hints at a high bust rate. Mauricio is still a valuable prospect, but he’s not the sort of blue-chip asset teams want for their best trade assets.
Mark Vientos, 23, 1B/3B/DH, NYM (MLB)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519
Vientos made modest strides with his plate discipline in the last year. He profiles as a bat-first prospect who is ultimately destined for first base or designated hitter duties. It’s not yet clear if he has enough bat to sustain regular work at those positions. Right-handed hitting first basemen tend to have a high bar to clear. Often, they’ll eventually matriculate, but it can sometimes require a few stops along the way. The Mets’ own Darin Ruf followed this path. C.J. Cron serves as a happier example of this profile. He finally found lasting success with the Rays in his age 28 season after four years of treading water in Los Angeles. Due to his defensive limitations, Vientos has a narrow window to stake any claim to third base reps ahead of Eduardo Escobar or Brett Baty. Pete Alonso is only signed through 2024, and the designated hitter mix led by Daniel Vogelbach isn’t exactly the Mets’ strong suit.
Noah Song, 25, SP, PHI (—)
DNP
They don’t come more mysterious than Song. Once a touted draft prospect who fell due to a military commitment, the Phillies selected Song from the Red Sox in the latest Rule 5 draft. It’s the second time Dave Dombrowski has selected him in a draft. Now cleared for baseball duty, the Phillies will have the challenging task of deciding if he can serve as their eighth reliever. When we last saw him in 2019, Song featured a plus fastball, slider, and curve along with a developing changeup. We don’t know how those pitches grade out today, and I’ve yet to observe him this spring. Assuming the fastball and at least one breaking ball are viable, it’s possible they could hide Song in the bullpen, send him to the minors to stretch out in 2024, then reassess matters from there.
The first step in that chain, carrying Song on the active roster, is a doozy. The Phillies are coming off an improbable NL Championship in which they barely scraped their way into the postseason. All signs point to another uphill battle in 2023. Every roster spot counts. Using one on Song rather than a “proven” option like Bailey Falter could be the difference.
Hunter Brown, 24, SP, HOU (MLB)
(AAA) 106 IP, 11.38 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 2.55 ERA
With Lance McCullers set to miss the start of the season, Brown is expected to make the Astros rotation. We can intuit they’ll carefully manage his workload. In fact, they were already doing so last season. At Triple-A, he made 14 starts with nine relief appearances. The Astros juggled the workloads of Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Jose Urquidy in much the same way last season, albeit less obviously. Brown more than held his own in 20.1 Major League innings. He averaged nearly 97-mph with his heater while recording 9.74 K/9, 3.10 BB/9, a 68 percent ground ball rate, and a 0.89 ERA. In the minors, he typically posted just north of a 50 percent ground ball rate. He’s a stuff-over-command starter who might fit best in short bursts.
Three More
Forrest Whitley, HOU (25): One of the options for the fifth starter slot, Whitley managed 40 innings in affiliated ball last season for the first time since 2019. He’s yet to broach 100 innings in a season, making a reliever role likelier if only for workload management purposes. Whitley struggled in his return to Triple-A. He once possessed five above average offerings and an ace-like ceiling.
Ethan Small, MIL (26): Small is a large left-handed changeup specialist with shaky command. Used as a starter throughout his four-season minor league career, the Brewers have now committed to preparing him as a reliever. This is his best opportunity to contribute in the short term. Even with Aaron Ashby sidelined, the Brewers have six quality starting pitchers on the big league staff.
Drew Gilbert, HOU (22): A 2022 first-rounder, the left-handed Gilbert dislocated his right elbow in a wall collision. He’s expected to be full health to start the season. A capable center fielder with discipline, contact skills, and non-trivial pop, Gilbert’s performance this season could cement a spot on Top 100 prospect lists. This is also a profile that often falls into a fifth-outfielder bucket. Consistent hard contact could serve as a forward indicator of his career trajectory.
Love these write-ups, as they’re consistently more realistic and clear-eyed than the “THIS GUY IS GONNA BE BRYCE HARPER, OR OMG THIS DUDE IS UNHITTABLE” junk you find on the internet. All prospects have warts, and most of them will fail.
I’d like to see their write ups on Jordan Walker and Masyn Winn. I’m sold that Walker will be a solid outfielder with a good bat. I’m on the fence with Winn.
Not to mention most come from the same teams who always overhype their prospects.
Yikes, talk about a pessimistic write-up on Mauricio.
“Volatile this, fringe that, lacks discipline/recognition…”
Yikes is right! Trade him to LA now to preemptively nip their bad Lux. (Just a pun, I sure hope his knee is ok after today…)
I particularly enjoyed how the writer still conceded, “Mauricio is still a valuable prospect”, immediately after giving THAT assessment.
Every news outlet has their style. Some are very Pollyanna about their write-ups. MLBTR’s style is to tell how it really is instead of sugar-coating everything.
Yeah, I get it… and appreciate it. Like Uncle Stevie said though, it wasn’t exactly an encouraging write-up when I kind of suspected all the usual 5+ prospects mentioned in these series would be somewhat positive. “All prospects are suspects until proven otherwise” is one of my favorite quotes.
No mention of Mauricio’s Dominican Winter League MVP – certainly not a sign that his low minor stats play down…
And a hot start this spring. I agree with the writeup, but he could be figuring it out more as he goes, with a potential Baez upside maybe? Certainly not defensively, but maybe offensively.
Or his two home runs in the first three days of spring.
Not a pessimistic write up, more like a realistic assessment. Have you seen Ronny play in person? I have. Looks like Brad has too. He’s been “blocked” for a couple of years now. Telling. GMs are passing?!
like the writer, you seems to have missed his excellent winter showing
He has looked great in winter and so far in spring training (yes super early). He is staying at SS now with the idea that he can move to 2B, 3B, or OF easily while challenging him at toughest position to play.
Yes. Agreed. Heck of a winter season and promising ST so far. That said, Brad’s assessment looks accurate based on what I saw last summer. Average fielder with a problematic LH swing (didn’t see him hit RH). Wish no ill will on Ronny. Hope I’m wrong and he flourishes. Cheers.
He’s only 21. Name one 21 year old that didn’t have work to do to get better. The write up wasn’t realistic. Mauricio is the Mets 7th highest rated prospect and the write up was acting like he was their number 1 prospect. He has the tools to become an every day player. Let’s not bash him for only hitting 26 he as a 20 year old minor leaguer.
Well said.
In Mauricio I can see numbers similar to Eduardo Escobar.
Hey guys. Looks like me and Brad are in the minority here. And that’s okay with me. An offer. When more stories post here on Ronny’s career journey/path, chat further then? (IE. probably won’t remember your monikers, but at that future date in time, if I have “to eat crow”, I’ll have “to eat crow”. Cheers.
Don’t be bullied by Mets fans. It’s okay to have your own assessment and will take the word of those who actually watch the player/game over those who group in because of some hot start that they looked up online.
It’s still too early to have such a black and white opinion either way.
Exactly. Time will tell. Not a Mets fan but I hope he keeps getting better.
I’m excited to see what Song looks like. He had 1st rd talent despite the military service
Would be a heckuva story
I’m hoping Song comes out of this ok. He hasn’t pitched in about 3 1/2 years and I think he is a high risk for injury if he is not brought along slowly.
Even if he makes 1 appearance, it’d be amazing.
I’m not saying the Phils want him to get hurt so they can stash him on the DL this year, but I don’t think they’d be upset if that happens.
I’m hoping he can get into shape sooner rather than later.
I think it is pretty irresponsible to have a guy who hasn’t pitched in 3 1/2 years try to ramp up for a MLB season in 5 weeks. I hope Song is smart enough to know when enough is enough.
Also…Won’t relievers in the Phillies bullpen be a little miffed if Song is in the bullpen and not pulling his weight? They will have to pitch more and on less rest.
So what, you’re suggesting the dude retire basically because he was a R5 pick?
Retiring is certainly not the answer. I think bringing him along slowly is.
Well, the Phillies have a right to his services and they can do that to an extent.They have ST and 15 days thereafter, which, if we are honest,is plenty of time for a phantom arm fatigue IL stint if you know what I mean. This sort of thing doesn’t succeed a lot, but arms of Song’s calibre aren’t usually available in the R5 so there aren’t a whole lot of great comps.
I’m really pulling for Song, and it’s not a ‘being a DD guy’ situation. He’s doing something we haven’t really seen since the Korean War era.
He was a top talent. He was a finalist for best collegiate player in 2019. Then he went into the military, and, is now trying to make it in mlb when he wondered if he’d ever get a shot.
You’ve got to want him to make it, no matter who your team is, if you’re any kind of baseball fan at all.
I think Song will eventually pitch in MLB if he doesn’t seriously hurt himself trying to do too much too soon.
Bullpen, if he can locate, is probably a great place for him to start.
Whether you throw in MLB, or, AA ball, really it’s a question of pitch count and usage frequency for a guy like Song, not the quality of the competition. If they focus on pitches thrown, and not a predetermined number of outs, it could work. Then next year stretch him out.
My guess is they see him as a long term piece for cheap cost, and, won’t overuse accordingly.
I don’t see how you keep a guy in a MLB bullpen who is always on a pitch count. Let’s see what happens.
H. Brown coming out of the bullpen 9 games last year had more to do with their pitching philosophy than trying to limit his innings. In the 14 starts he pitched 65.33 innings (4.66/game) and in the 9 games out of the bullpen he pitched 40.33 innings (4.48/game). They do tandem pitching across all levels and pretty much every starter in the system comes out of the bullpen as well and go 4-5 innings.
Thank goodness another article mentions Noah Song. And each one says the same thing. He is starting to enter the Swihart Zone. A complete hose job by MLB. This guy should never have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Just stupid that MLB has nothing in the rules about military service requirements. Now Phillies have to force this guy to pitch? Moronic Meat Market Mentality.
How is Brad Johnson 2 different from Brad Johnson?
The sequel usually isn’t better than the original
“Pete Alonso only signed till 2024” Yeah as if the Mets won’t be signing him to a monster contract before then. LMFBO