Tigers right-hander Casey Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and was already set to miss at least part of the upcoming season. However, there’s an extra layer of complication to his recovery, as the team informed reporters today that he also underwent back surgery around the same time, listing his two issues as a right elbow sprain and a lumbar strain.
“I’ve been dealing with the issue for a long time,” Mize told reporters, including Jason Beck of MLB.com. “I would say years. It’s just something that’s gradually gotten worse over time.” He then goes on to detail that, since he was going to be out for an extended stretch with the Tommy John anyway, the idea was to get both issues dealt with at the same time. It seems the back issue delayed his rehab process slightly, but Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports that the rehab is now primarily focused on his arm. He’ll start playing catch this week.
It’s unclear exactly how this will impact his 2023 season, but he was going to be challenged to return in any case. The recovery process from Tommy John generally takes 14 months or longer. Since Mize first went under the knife in June of last year, he was likely looking at a brief late-season return even in a best-case scenario. It’s possible that the back issue will push his return even farther down the road, though it seems that’s all still up in the air.
“It’s tough to make decisions on February 15 about what July 1 is going to look like, about what October 1 is going to look like, about the following spring training,” Mize said, per Petzold. “We have a set schedule and program that we’d like to follow, but this thing is fluid. There are going to be changes throughout it.”
The first overall pick of the 2018 draft, Mize has shown some promise in his big league career so far but also some struggles. He debuted in 2020 with seven starts and a 6.99 ERA. He seemed to take a step forward in 2021 by posting a 3.71 ERA over 30 starts, his first full season in the bigs. His 6.7% walk rate and 48.1% ground ball rate were both strong, but his 19.3% strikeout rate was a few ticks below league average. It’s possible that a .254 batting average on balls in play and 79.5% strand rate were helping his ERA down a bit, as he had a 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA on the year. In 2022, he was only able to make a pair of starts before landing on the shelf.
Ideally, taking care of both ailments and getting Mize to 100% health will allow him to provide better results once he’s back on the mound, be that later this year or in 2024. For the Tigers, they were surely aware of this situation, though it wasn’t publicly known until today. With both Mize and Tarik Skubal both having unclear timelines this year, the club signed Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen to join Eduardo Rodriguez, Matt Manning and Spencer Turnbull in the rotation. Mize will spend most or all of this season on the injured list, accruing service time in the process. He’ll cross the three-year mark this year and qualify for arbitration in the upcoming offseason, slated to become a free agent after 2026.
Man talk about the fragility of prospects….Best of luck to him…
And we heard about it this year? The team must be super secretive like Texas’ front office times 100.
I could be wrong but I imagine teams can only inform anyone about medical situations of players with the players consent. Mize may not have wanted it discussed but since it now impacts his timetable a little, he may,have decided it was time to mention it.
So this is what Jack Leiter will turn into
You surmise that Mize may have kept it quiet but it could have been the team’s decision.
Has anyone studied or collected data on whether a pitcher’s workload is positively correlated with physical issues – Tommy John Surgery, UCL, or other procedures requiring surgery and/or lengthy therapy and rehab?
This obviously doesn’t just apply to the subject of Casey Mize’s health situation but I’ve followed the Tigers closely over the last several years and it seems like, despite frequently prioritizing innings/workload-type limits, it’s a rare situation where one of their pitchers has NOT had physical issues.
I feel like this is true throughout baseball but I don’t want to be accused of cherry picking – like mentioning that Anthony Gose has pitched 130 innings in his entire career and he’s now out with TJS.
It seems “managing workload” affects pitching decisions throughout pro baseball, frequently limiting top pitchers’ ability to contribute. Is it for no reason?
It starts early in life and builds.
It is cherry-picked to a degree. Teams like Cleveland, SF, and Houston seem to develop most of their pitchers with less injuries than others. “The Arm” by Jeff Passan is probably the best starting place to explore the topic.
My feeling is that there are likely a multitude of factors (arm speed, arm angle, amount of spin, etc) that all mix with a pitchers strength which really muddies the water of what actually causes some of these arm injuries. Limiting pitches/innings limits all of those factors so is the safest bet until things are better understood.
Thanks the reminding my about Passan’s work. I’m just surprised that pulling pitchers based on pitch count (though I know some of that is based on number of times through the order and the stat basic for that) and workload limits are ubiquitous, and have been for a few decades now.
Surprising to me because there’s now plenty of raw data for study, and because the explanation is never more detailed or more advanced.
It’s obvious if you watch a high-def slow-mo video of any elite pitcher today: The contortions and stress on their backs, shoulders, elbows, wrists, fingers (and all the stuff on the inside) is HUGE, and much more than when Jack Morris was throwing 250+ innings or Mickey Lolich was throwing 300+. (Koufax was the only guy I’ve seen much video on that hints he was getting the kind of force/spin/movement of the current guys – and he’s just one example but he was done at 31.)
I know a comment on Casey Mize’s back surgery isn’t the most high-profile place for a discussion on the subject but it frustrates me that there is practically zero transparency between the explanation of pitch-count or workload based managerial decisions and the massive effect those decisions have on outcomes and team fortunes.
Cray MC — As bistro3000 mentioned, “The Arm” by Jeff Passan, is exactly that discussion of Arm health. Long story short… despite the volumes of data, there is no consensus on best practices. The topic is less Science and more Alchemy.
These are all factors, in my opinion:
1) player strength/muscle
2) body type/thickness
3) mechanics
4) ability to be effective while not going max effort. Max effort could lead to overexertion.
5) Luck. Let’s face it, there’s a certain level of luckiness or unluckiness involved.
6) Diet/exercise – sometimes they are built like Lance Lynn, sometimes they are Pedro Martinez.
I’m sure teams have formulas they use internally too to gauge arm health for the future. Something that includes everything you’re saying.
I never like to hear the words “surgery” and “back in the same sentence”. I’d be seeing a chiropracter, massage therapist, voodoo practictioner or a babe waking up and down my back in size 6 flip flops before I’d allow a scalple anywhere near my back. Hope it works but…
Mize, Torkelson, Jackson Jobe over Marcelo Mayer.
When it comes to tanking draft results the woebegone Tiger hopes have been dashed by bad luck and Al Avila Thinking, which has proven to be far worse than bad luck.
How are they going to come out of this spiral in our lifetimes? The few times ownership opened the checkbook their purchases were doomed by Avila Malpractice. Scott Harris is forced into shopping at boneyards.
This season, things could get 1899 Cleveland Spider-like.
Mize was having a good season. Not sure how his career progress to date makes him a bad pick. Torkekson has played part of a year. Jobe is in A ball and a top 100 prospect. How are we tanking draft results with them? Would I have preferred Mayer over Jobe. Yup. I’m not a big Casey Mize fan but he’s a good pitcher. Tork had one bad season at the start of his career. They actually have some really nice pieces in the minors right now, just not as many as some other clubs. I don’t see much logic to what you say, just impatience.
Tigers have a bottom tier farm system after graduating their top prospects, who have done virtually nothing to help this team emerge from the toilet. Couple that with awful free agent signings, and Tigers have basically bungled and extended their current rebuild. Not much hope for next couple years
Avila pushed the panic button and rushed rookies to the big leagues before they were ready. He may have ruined several careers by doing that. Rebuilding teams must demonstrate extreme patience with their best prospects and keep them down on the farm getting the reps and innings they need before promoting them. Easy to say but hard to do when your major league team is getting hammered and pressure builds to win now.
All of their top prospects have been in the league less than a year. How about we wait awhile before saying they have done virtually nothing. Most lost a year to Covid & did not have a full spring training due to the strike
Which careers did he ruin?