The biggest offseason question for the Yankees has been whether they’ll re-sign Cody Bellinger. General manager Brian Cashman is on record about the club’s interest in doing so, and they’ve reportedly made at least two formal contract offers.
It doesn’t appear that Bellinger is on the verge of accepting a deal, however. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic wrote this morning that the sides don’t seem close to an agreement, though talks are continuing. Contract length could be a holdup. Kuty wrote that Bellinger and his representatives at the Boras Corporation were likely looking for a six- or seven-year contract. In an MLB Network appearance, Jon Morosi also suggested that Bellinger continued to seek a deal in the seven-year range. Morosi added that the Yankees unsurprisingly preferred a four- or five-year commitment.
Most external projections forecast a five- or six-year deal. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $140MM contract at the beginning of the offseason. Bellinger is headed into his age-30 season. There’s precedent for players commanding seven-plus years at that age, but the most recent free agent hitter to do so was Brandon Nimmo in 2022. There hasn’t even been a six-year contract for a free agent bat in his 30s since the Nimmo deal, but Alex Bregman (who was a year older at the time) rejected a six-year offer from the Tigers last winter.
Bellinger is coming off a fantastic first season in the Bronx. He hit .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs across 656 plate appearances. He cut his already low strikeout rate to a personal-best 13.7% clip. Bellinger’s bat speed and exit velocities — which prevented him from commanding a long-term contract two years ago — remain middling. His left-handed bat was perfectly suited to Yankee Stadium, where he hit .302/.365/.544 with 18 of his home runs. His .241/.301/.414 batting line on the road is essentially league average.
While that wouldn’t be much of an issue for the Yankees, they may feel that’ll give other teams pause. We’re only a year removed from Bellinger having essentially no trade value when he was signed for two years and $52.5MM. New York acquired him from the Cubs for journeyman pitcher Cody Poteet, whom Chicago cut at the end of Spring Training. The only cost for the Yankees was taking on all but $5MM on Bellinger’s deal. Trade talks were complicated by an opt-out clause in his contract, but it’s notable that teams weren’t eager to sign up for even two years at $25MM annually last offseason. A six-plus year commitment at a similar annual value is a significant ask.
Do teams other than the Yankees feel Bellinger is a dramatically different player than he was a year ago? His camp will surely argue that his success in New York — on top of his previous work in big markets in Los Angeles and Chicago — should move the needle. Bellinger also isn’t attached to draft compensation, as he was in 2023 when he declined a qualifying offer from the Cubs.
His results have outpaced his more middling batted ball metrics in three consecutive seasons. Bellinger is never going to recapture the ferocious power he had before he injured his right shoulder during the 2020 postseason. He has reinvented himself as an elite contact bat, and while his home/road splits aren’t encouraging, his platoon numbers are more impressive.
Bellinger is a .329/.371/.546 hitter against left-handed pitching over the past three seasons. Among lefty hitters with 250+ plate appearances in that time, only Yordan Alvarez has a superior slugging mark. Bellinger trails only Alvarez and Juan Soto in on-base percentage. Teams can comfortably pencil Bellinger in as an everyday player in either corner outfield spot, and he’s an option for at least semi-regular center field work.
This is going until march isn’t it
Early Feb. is my guess. I don’t think any signing want team wants their star acquisition to miss a portion of ST anymore.
I think Tucker and Belli will be signed within 30 days.
Belli back to Yankees, 5 years, $155 million, with some opt-outs.
I am now pretty unsure what Tucker will get. Two years, $100 million, with an opt-out from the Dodgers? Ten years, $300 million, with no opt-outs to the Mets or Blue Jays?
WBC to deal with too though
madd – It’s 2024 all over again, thanks mostly to Boras.
Didn’t work out very well for his players at the time …… Snell, Monty, Bellinger, Chapman, JDM …. apparently Boras hasn’t learned from his mistakes.
The question is whether teams have learned. At some point they need to walk away because as you point out, recent data shows the longer it drags out, the higher risk of negative value on the deal.
swing – The amount of money teams save when they sign free agents desperate for a contract in Feb/March outweighs the negative impact on performance.
As a reminder of 2024 ….
Cody Bellinger
Projected 6 years/$150M
Received 3 years/$80M
Blake Snell
Projected 5 years/$140M
Received 2 years/$62M
Jordan Montgomery
Projected 5 years/$140M
Received 1 year/$25M
Matt Chapman
Projected 5 years/$120M
Received 3 years/$54M
Players/and their agents have not been very good at recognizing when their unique market is stagnating sometimes.
Nice list… all Boras guys i believe
bucs – Yep, a couple years ago they were being referred to as “The Boras Four” …. some were including JDM in “The Boras Five”.
That Bellinger projection was an absurd at that time and many commentors called it out as such. That entire group had ,many warts and red flags. Snell and Chaoman have both since gotten the big contracts Boras sought,. Monty’ got $45 million and proved all the doubters right. JDM was pretty much already washed up.
6/150 for Bellinger?…. this very site had him at 12/264m.
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-age…
just – Kidding, right?
At the time he was just 27 years old and just came off an .881 OPS 4.8 WAR Top Ten MVP Votes season. The projection was reasonable.
padre – I agree the $264M was on the high side, but the $150M I mentioned definitely was not.
Fever pitch guy – Snell got the big deal with the Dodgers. Matt Chapman got the big extension with the Giants. Bellinger is primed to get a good deal. Boras as a whole knows what he is doing with his players. I wish players would sign earlier, but that is just baseball.
@Gunnar
Snell and Matt didn’t get the larger expected contract was his point. They signed short term, preformed well, and then were given extension offers.
Gunnar – Sometimes age and/or ego works against an agent like Boras. He’s not gonna retire at the top of his game, as his decisionmaking begins to decline it will eventually lead to retirement. Seems like the decline began a few years ago.
Having to wait another year to get a contract didn’t help any of those guys. They had poor starts, and in Monty’s case he was awful all year and quickly fired Boras.
Boras’ has a reasonably reasonable working assumption.
demand slightly outstrips supply for top-tier talent
and vigorous marketing will usually engage the egos of people with much money and much desire to surpass the other owners.
all the marketer need do is create the image of some unique excellence and allow the big-walleted egomaniacs to work themselves and each other
FPG
Worked out fine for Snell, Belli and Chapman.
Monty was the big loss. JD missed out, too.
Maybe late February.
…And is going to end with a 3 year, high AAV, opt out heavy contract somewhere not in NY.
Agent using Mets to drive up cost, I reckon.
7/$210. Front load it and move on. Keep Dominguez around for inevitable injuries. Evaluate Grisham during/after the season. Same with Stanton. Yanks are “only” on the hook for 2/$34 mil before they can let him walk.
If the Yankees put that out there, the topic of conversation would be how bad a contract it is …and I am pretty sure he would sign it so fast, he might risk dislocating his shoulder again!
P.S. I would also be up to 13 correct in the FA Pool, thank you very much.
C’mon Cash, spend some money, man!
That seems like way too much money for someone as inconsistent as Bellinger, especially considering his home/road splits. Yanks would be bidding against themselves at that price.
Everybody is at this point. The next you’re going to hear is agents claiming collusion.
@rct
His home/ road split works for the Yanks. Besides, his pulled homers to RF weren’t exactly 315 ft wall scrapers. They would still leave a bunch of the stadiums too. He’s just a pull hitter.
They are good like that,,,do not need to sign at anyone,,not pitching and no hitting,,Toronto LA to WS
Make it 6/180 with 20 mil extra option year and deal.
It;’s a low probability, but still possible, that this negotiation will turn into the Yankees-Johnny Damon after 2009, when Boras went for the moon and ended up with a one year contract from a different team.
He’s already got a second offer from the Yankees. I don’t forsee that scenario happening unless they pivot to sign Tucker. Even then it’s doubtful Belli takes only a one-year guarantee with no additional option years.
If I were a GM I wouldn’t give Bellinger a 6-7 year contract either. A 4-5 year deal would be the most years he should get. Imho.
Come on. Someone just sign.
Baseball is not to be taken seriously.
A speculated 4yr offer is spot on. Few other clubs will value him as much for their park.
IF A GM JUST SAYS, “Screw it”, and then disregards budget/payroll and signs a bunch of guys any ways even against.the owners wishes….
Could the owner have those contracts voided?
Saber-
A GM just can’t put a contract in front of a player. Everything needs to be approved. I’m sure even when it is “open checkbook” calls have to be made. It would be funny if something like that somehow happened though.
No
Ownership doesn’t have the final say? Of course they do. Baseball is a business. Nothing more.
Baseball IS a business, but that means that when an authorized person proffers a valid contract and it gets signed then it’s a real thing. Period. It’ll be taken to court and it will be held as valid. That’s what Chris From NJ was saying: a valid contract has to have been offered by an authorized person against a real bank and signed by a valid representative of the player. If that’s done (and a GM is usually one such person) then it’ll stand.
If no one has made an acceptable offer yet, he needs to lower his expectations. Remaining payroll will only get smaller the closer to ST we get.
Just about every one of those “hold out” contracts the past few years have turned out negative value for teams. Matt Chapman may have been the exception. Jordan Montgomery? Blake Snell was good, but barely threw 100 innings.
The modern response to that has been the inclusion of many opt-outs for the player. It really doesn’t help the team at all except that hacking off the end of any long contract gets them out of paying for the decline.
You disregard the infamous Boras Mystery Team coning in to snatch prosperity from the jaws of poverty.
But that strategy hadn’t worked for Boras’s clients in recent years, and they have had to produce in order to opt-out. Or they cry 96 tears.
Keep going Cody. Right to someone else!
I totally agree with you. There is a reason the Cubs paid to get rid of him. Also signing him blocks Jones from ever coming up. Beli would be an albatross on the Yankees roster if he is resigned & then the fans will be mad at the Yankees for signing him. He is a contract player.
Bleacher Report pointed out a problem. Many top free agents are over 30 and are looking for big deals. However, teams just aren’t doing it anymore, and said that this is one thing MLBPA and MLB need to talk about. I can see them having only 2 pre-arb years and 3 arb years.
They all are hoping for a cap after the inevitable strike too. Teams seem especially hesitant to give out big money this year.
Certainly not big long and expensive contracta rhat are guarantews to pay through a strike.
Many, many teams, most even, are watching the RSNs burn and not seeing replacement revenues yet. The eight or so teams with real money still pouring in can collect all the fancy FAs, but teams like SD really need an answer on the money front to keep spending like nothing has changed.
@Astros
it’s always been that way
most mlb guys don’t make it to the majors until they’re 30. Honestly tho? I think it’s fair because not all players hit the ground running and teams want a long enough runway to get a return on their investments.
If you read the whole article, it’ll say that it’s getting slower and slower.
Wish Padres would jump in with creative deal
Why? To play 1B? He is worth more as a corner outfielder who can play one inning in CF after a double-switch.
Some times the best things you do are nothing. Hard pass – spend the money elsewhere. Do everything you can to sign Bo! I don’t care sign him and figure it out where you play him
@yanks2323
The very first rule of negotiation. Walk away from a bad deal.
Bo can play 3b & is a far superior player than Beli
@ny
If ppl are saying he needs to move off of SS because of his arm then I’m sure that would be even more of an issue at 3b.
I really like Bellinger and wanted him resigned..but enough of this poop..let him walk,Yanks..sick of these arrogant players greed..average, hard working man can barely afford going to the Stadium with his kids anymore.
Whether the Yankees sign any player has not has absolutely zero bearing on the pricing of Yankee Stadium.
Won’t someone please think about the poor owners?
I’m pretty sure just the other day the paparazzi got some pics of Hal out on the street corner panhandling. Apparently, the gold plated ivory elephant tusks he ordered for the door handles to his recently built private airport that lets him fly straight from one of his private islands directly to his other private islands was the wrong shade of gold, and he had to throw them out. He hasn’t been able to scrounge enough together to get a replacement set of gold plated ivory elephant tusks.
Won’t someone PLEASE think of the poor, poor, billionaire owners.
I feel this is very disrespectful to Uncle Hal! Sincerely, Brian Cashman.
I mentioned the owners Or the average joe?
This previous Yankees player is so out of touch asking for so much from Steinbrenner, the owner of the Yankees, who charges me copious amounts of money when I go to his ballpark.
I said what you said..juuuuuust a little differently. I’m really hoping you will see where the wheels came off the boat.
Hal Steinbrenner being a broke b***** should be a bigger story than it is.
While im critical of him asking for a salary cap, hes still spending ~300MM yearly. They are right that they should be able to field a WS roster with that amount. Problem is theyve spent their money terribly and have a talent evaluation problem
$300 million payroll with Yankees revenue stream is low
$300MM in general is high enough to be routinely top 5 in the league. Thats more enough to field a WS roster. The amount they spend isnt the problem, its how they spend it
Signing Beli would be another place money was spent terribly and would block Jones from ever getting a chance.
No it wouldn’t. Who knows if Jones will be ready by 2027 of his k rate stays above 30%. Plus, Grisham is only signed for 1 year and Stanton will be gone in 2 years.
+roc
Maybe, but they shouldnt even be in the position where paying Belli would be a back breaker. this is like a $200MM roster theyre spending 300 on. They should he able to bring him back as a luxury
+Knicks
are you doing the thing again where you pretend that a 25 year old top prospect (will be 25 to start the season) isnt blocked and that he wont be ready until hes 26 despite posting an .897 OPS in AAA? Really?
I really do think teams are just bidding against themselves for most of this offseason. Agents are trying to get the contracts of the past 3-4 years and teams just aren’t willing to make the commitment without a new CBA.
Belli is on the wrong side of 30 to ask for 6-7 years……7 years out, this could make the Stanton deal look good for the Yankees…..he’s very good and would be welcomed, but a long term deal like he’s looking for, given the possibility of a strike in 27, and the fact that his age will continue to work on weakening his body given his corner outfield work don’t look good……and yes I know he can play first, but the Yankees have our answer there already with a kid who is just beginning to reach his potential and is YOUNG….
Wheres the SuperFife when you need him
Bellinger should only be considered for a max, 4 year contract. If he and his agent don’t want to take that, let him walk. Then see what Spencer Jones and Jason Dominguez can provide. The Yankees don’t need to bid against themselves.
6/180 and let’s call it a day, Gents. This is getting boring.
It didn’t used to be this hard to sign a free agent if a team wanted him. We will soon be in the middle of January and look at all the big free agents still out there. Every single year it’s the same thing. Some people are blaming the players or a particular agent. I still think the owners are behind this for the most part.
Crazy what they consider a “fantastic” season these days
7 years is too long . maybe have 4 more good years left
Over the last seven somewhat mercurial seasons, including his MVP year, Bellinger has averaged 3.14 bWAR. Since he’ll be 30 next season, he doesn’t seem likely to reproduce that over the next seven years. If anybody is willing to commit $30 million/year over seven years for 3 bWAR, they can have him.
So basically…nothing new to report…
I understand both sides. Players want to get paid what they feel they are worth, GMs are using more what they will be worth coupled with a budget…except for the Dodgers who have leveraged the deferral game.
4 years at $30m is the correct value. Whether or not fans just say, just do the extra two or three years, it’s not their $60m.
I love Soto, but his deal was absurd. Any but 5 franchises would crippled by that.
Next CBA will be a hard fight, because the battle isn’t just between owners and players…but also owners v owners and players v players.
he’s not a $30m a year player, even for 4 years. $25 mil a year tops. average hitter away from the Bronx.
Who would give this guy 7 years?
Any team considering giving Bellinger 6 years is crazy. You’re paying him for his first 4 years and then wasting a roster spot the next 2 years. Organizations have to be smarter. The Yankees can’t continue down that path. Sometimes you have to walk away. Let Jones and Dominguez battle it out for LF and add an outfielder at the trade deadline. No reason to bid against yourself.
I predict 6 years and $180 million
Hopefully not with the Yankees, let some other team waste their money and a roster spot on him
Snoozing on this post
Cody fan and believe Belli is a perfect fit in Yankee stadium. But… make the last best offer then move on. Many more fish to fry in constructing a winning Yankee roster.
Sure if he can play all 162 games in Yankee Stadium he is a perfect fit. On the road he was league average. The Cubs paid the Yankees to take on the rest of his contract for a reason. He is a contract player and will block Jones if he is resigned.
He will stay with the Yankees. Boras and Cashman. See who blinks first.
I really hope the Yankees let him go.
Dude should feel fortunate to have a 5year offer.
I don’t get why he’s not running more. He’s pretty fast and a good base stealer. He should easily be stealing 30+ bases.