Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker has lost his arbitration case, the Associated Press reports. He’ll be paid at the team’s filing rate of $5MM instead of the $7.5MM his camp had sought.
That $2.5MM gap was the largest of any player and team who had gone to an arbitration hearing this offseason. (The Blue Jays and Bo Bichette had an identical filing gap but agreed to a three-year contract to avoid the process this week). That’s in large part a reflection of Tucker’s status as a first-time eligible player, as the sides and panel couldn’t base their determination on any of his previous salaries.
The team’s filing rate was closer to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projection of $5.6MM at the start of the offseason. The outfielder’s bid to beat that number came up short, although he’ll still collect one of the bigger salaries for any first-time eligible player. Only Dylan Cease ($5.7MM), Zac Gallen ($5.6MM) and Will Smith ($5.25MM) settled on a one-year deal at a higher rate among first-year players. Bichette’s deal guaranteed him $33.6MM over his three arbitration seasons; the specific financial breakdown is not yet known, though it’d seem likely he’ll make more than the $5MM for which the Blue Jays were set to file in the first season of that deal.
Tucker owns a .268/.335/.502 line in a little more than 1500 career plate appearances. He’s connected on 73 home runs, driven in 256 runs and stolen 53 bases. Nearly half of those steals came last season, when he went 25-29 on the basepaths. Tucker hit .257/.330/.478 with 30 homers and 107 RBI during his final season leading up to arbitration. He also won a Gold Glove for his excellent defense in right field, played in his first All-Star Game and received some down-ballot MVP support for the second consecutive season.
The arbitration loss means Tucker will be working from a lower platform salary than he’d hoped for the next couple years. The process is designed so that salaries escalate each season based on both the player’s salary in the prior year and his ongoing performance track record. Given Tucker’s consistent, well above-average production, he should be in position to bank solid raises for the next couple seasons — though those will start from a $5MM base level rather than his desired $7.5MM platform. He’s slated to go through the process twice more before qualifying for free agency during the 2025-26 offseason.
That could be more or less a moot point if Tucker and the Astros can work out a longer-term agreement. New general manager Dana Brown has already spoken of his desire to sign the star outfielder to a multi-year contract. Clearly, the sides couldn’t agree to terms before going into this week’s hearing, though that doesn’t preclude them from further negotiations this spring or next offseason.
The victory closes one of two arbitration cases for the Astros this winter. Starting pitcher Cristian Javier is set for a hearing (barring a multi-year deal of his own) in the coming days. The young righty is seeking a $3.5MM salary, while the club countered at $3MM.
Wow!
Sweet fancy Moses!
My thoughts exactly. Well said
Kyle, this slimy franchise doesn’t appreciate you. The minute you’re eligible, bolt for free agency faster than The Big Sexy bolts for the buffet. You deserve better.
Regards, every non-Astros Baseball Fan
Kyle, please stay. We love you here.
Regards, every Astros fan that lives in and out of Houston.
The only honest franchise in the league.
Can’t hear what you’re saying over the beating sound of trash cans
Oh sorry, were the astros beating on your team again?
Like I said the only honest team. Your team was doing the same thing.
I always wonder if teams nickel and dime themselves out of players in arbitration. I get you can’t just give anyone the money they think they should get but I can see feelings being hurt for higher caliber players. Could 1.5 mil now save you 10-20 mil in the future? I’m sure they know it’s just part of the business though
They will go for the most money either way. I’m with the Astros in this one. Hopefully they extend him and give him the money back on the years
Given Tucker’s production last season, I think he should have gotten the higher number. Hopefully he’ll be rewarded in the long term contract he’s likely to get.
Once upon a time, I believed people we kind…..
That is just it. That little bit they save this year will save the team millions down the line in his next trips through arbitration. The players union would be wise to try and completely overhaul the whole arbitration process during the next bargaining talks.
Keep in mind that his current salary becomes the basis for future arbitration awards, so they are saving more than $1.5M.
And the Astros can use this as a springboard for a longer contract. They can tell Tucker that they can give him the $7.5M this year, in exchange for locking in future year(s).
He definitely earned the higher salary. If it was me I would cut off all communication with the front office, file for arbitration the next two years and hit free agency
Tucker could have filed for 6-6.5 and he would have won without question. 7.5M was simply too much. Lesson learned for 1st and 2nd year arb players. Don’t make your asking price too obvious of an overpay It’s based on formulas and history.
Take into account when the astros tanked, and let’s face it they were the original tank team, they hit the jackpot. Then they get lucky not tanking with a steady core and 4 pitchers dropped from heaven in one year. Now they feel hard done by that an exceptionally cool baller with no frills wants what he clearly deserved. Astros scum of the earth getting richer and greedier. Go A’s
nice objective post, my dude.
the cubs did it first
Original tank team???
Team have been tanking—also know as a rebuild—for well over 100 years now.
Cute that you think it’s new though.
If Tucker is upset at anyone, it should be his agent. While he has been a very good player to date, asking for $7.5M in year one of arbitration was too aggressive. As someone mentioned above, had they asked for $6M, he most likely would have won his case. This decision really doesn’t affect Houston’s ability to re-sign him. If they offer him the money and term he’s looking for, then he’ll definitely stay.
In what universe was Houston the first team to tank? Been going on decades.
yes please A’s, go, get out of oakland while you can
This guy deserves a DJ LeMahieu contract. He’s underrated
And if he signed, he will be selling himself way short.
Astros even cheat when it comes to arbitration
That lower base will impact him for two more years.
Have to wonder if they tried to meet in the middle.
I seem to believe Tucker’s submitted arbitration figure was so high, the Astros didn’t feel a need to negotiate.
Yes! Although they do deserve to lose after all those years of bottom payrolls
The rich get richer and the scum get scummier. Just happens to be the same team. Go A’s!!!! Astros are the most horrific franchise in the world of sport
Huh? Don’t be ridiculous. They cheated and got caught. That was a crappy time period. Be pissed at the players who participated in it still if you want. I am, at least at the ones who didn’t issue legit apologies that you could tell were genuine (lookin at you Bregman).
But to call them the most horrific franchise in the history of sport is just asinine. Go away.
The Angels would like a word.
At least Houston gets wins for the money they spend, and have a decent farm system….
At least Houston has more playoff appearances in last 10 years than Pirates or Reds, unlike some teams with a big market payroll…
Oh, I suspect if the Houston owner wanted to sell, it would not get botched up like some teams….
He was expected by many to have a much better year than he had. Some predicted he’d lead the league in home runs
He’s gonna need to go 40/40 while hitting .318 for the rest of that arb money I guess.
Or maybe be better than a 129 OPS+ over his career? He had a .808 OPS last year, and arbitration looks at outdated stats like hits, batting average, RBIs, etc. It’s the system that is stupid, not his performance here.
My point exactly
Hope next year the Arbitrator sides with Tucker should he continue his y2y route.
I just wonder why the Astros new GM didn’t won’t give Kyle Tucker a new
contact hoping the Astros keep him and the Tucker keeps doing what he has done over the years hit HRs and catching the baseballs ⚾
texasbug: Not trying to bust your chops (to much) but your 39 word comment was VERY hard to read. It was 1 L-O-N-G sentence and so many grammatical mistakes that it looked like my 7 yr old son did it.
Heyo join up! fantasy.espn.com/baseball/league/join?leagueId=205…
Next headline: “Controversy after Astros accused of stealing Tucker’s legal rep’s signs”.
Jokes, jokes:P
This is bad for Houston’s chances to sign him to an extension. His team over valued him and got a bit greedy.
They would have won $6M or probably even $6.5M.
Hopefully this does not deteriorate any good will towards the extension they are working on.
If I’m Tucker no way I resign with a team that disrespects me like this. Hopefully he goes to a team that actually wants him there and will pay him what he’s worth.
You must be new to baseball.
Did I miss the part where an independent arbitrator disrespected Tucker?
Ridiculous take.
I’m sure Tucker isn’t happy but all players know it’s a business. It’s simply the game.
If I was Tucker I would be upset at his agent for determining too high of salary to submit.
$6 1/2M instead of $7 1/2M and he wins. Cost him $1 1/2M
Tucker is under control for the next 3 seasons. If he continues this pace, I’m sure the Astros will extend him before he sniffs free agency.
That’s my initial read on this as well.
This system of awarding either the team’s figure or the player’s figure with no process for arriving at a figure somewhere in between has always seemed to me kind of stupid. It’s a prescription for bad feelings and resentment on the player’s part. Some here are remarking that “they know it’s a business.” Jeter and other players knew it was a business, but that didn’t stop them from commenting after retirement that they hated how they were treated by their employers during the process — and nobody was more of a professional than Jeter.
They’re free to negotiate and make a deal at any time before an official ruling. Jeter never went to arbitration. His complaint was the FA process during his last contract. The Yankees chose to leak info to the press against his wishes.
I sit corrected. Jeter hated being told to “drink the reality potion” and still talks about how angry he was.
Jeter did go to arbitration before, but won the hearing and had no complaints. And why would he?
Then there was the arbitration hearing with Dellin Betances, after which Randy Levine held a press conference to attack Dellin’s agents AFTER THE YANKEES WON THE HEARING!
foxsports.com/stories/mlb/dellin-betances-agent-fi…
I stand corrected as well.
This is an interesting read about the bad feelings generated by the process:
espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26390887/union-scolds-mlb-…
They let Cole, Springer, and Correa walk and they seem to have managed to do pretty well for themselves in spite of all that. The Stros always have some serious gears turning in the background and I’m certain they have a few contingency plans if he leaves.
The 5M Tucker’s making is well over 50% lower compared to what Bellinger or Bryant got in their 1st year of arbitration (and that’s not even taking into account of inflation). And, before you jump out of your socks, no I don’t think Tucker has had the same performance history leading up to 1st year arbitration eligibility, but the difference isn’t 5M in 2023 dollars vs 10.85M for Bryant in 2018 dollars or 11.5M for Bellinger in 2020 dollars. Not even close. 7.5M even seems on the lower side of fair. 5M though… that’s just insulting.