With pitchers and catchers having now reported to their respective spring training sites, there’s a fair bit of news around the health of a number of pitchers around the sport.
Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello will take the weekend off throwing, and hopes to be able to throw again Monday, per Sean McAdam of the Boston Sports Journal. Bello apparently felt tightness in his forearm this week. Any time tightness and forearm are mentioned in the same sentence regarding a young pitcher there’s a fair bit of concern, but Bello says he believes it’s due to throwing a higher number of breaking balls of late.
In any case, he’ll be shutdown temporarily and the Red Sox and Bello will be hoping he’s good to go next week. Bello figures to compete for a spot in the Red Sox’ starting rotation this year. The 23-year-old made 11 solid starts (and two relief appearances) last season, working to a 4.71 ERA with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate.
Here’s a few other injury tidbits from around the sport:
- Orioles closer Felix Bautista told reporters, including Jake Rill of MLB.com, that he expects to be ready for opening day. Bautista has spent the winter rehabbing left knee and right shoulder injuries, and has thrown four bullpen sessions since January. He’s believes he’ll be ready to get into spring matches around March 15, and will need four or five spring innings to get up to speed. Bautista was dominant for the Orioles during his rookie year last season, pitching to a 2.19 ERA across 65 2/3 innings, striking out batters at a quality 34.8% clip.
- Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. has been shut down temporarily following him experiencing some soreness in his throwing arm (via Mark Berman of Fox 26). There’s always a bit of concern there particularly given McCullers’ injury history, but manager Dusty Baker gave reporters a promising outlook “he’s just getting treatment. He’s feeling pretty good. He’s feeling better.” McCullers is into his eighth season with the Astros. A forearm strain suffered in 2021 limited him to just eight starts in 2022, but he still worked to an impressive 2.27 ERA in those handful of appearances.
- Yankees starter Luis Severino is entering his walk year, so naturally hoping for a strong, and healthy, campaign. After missing the bulk of three-straight seasons, Severino returned to make 19 starts last year, working to a 3.18 ERA. A lat strain sidelined him for two months of the season, but the Yankees were unsurprisingly happy to exercise the $15MM club option they held over the 28-year-old ahead of the 2023 season. While the significant injury history won’t help, a full season of ~30 starts of his typically excellent output could set Severino up for a big payday next winter. “Health is always the question with him. I feel like he’s done everything he needs to this offseason. He’s been around Tampa. He’s been at the complex. He’s getting his work in. Physically, he looks like he’s in a good spot. I think everything we’ve wanted out of him this offseason, he’s answered the bell. He’s ready to go this year. We feel good about the way he’s reported,” pitching coach Matt Blake told Brendan Kuty of The Athletic. The Yankees are depending even more so on a healthy season from Severino after the news that Frankie Montas will miss the majority of the year as he recovers from shoulder surgery.
It looks like the Yankees are going to run the same offense out there, because the assets needed to trade for third base and left field will have to be used on pitching at the All-Star break.
Trade Judge at the deadline should bring back enough.
York – That comment is almost as silly as Simon writing that Bello had “11 solid starts”.
He got absolutely hammered in 5 of his 11 starts:
July 6 – 4 IP and 4 ER, 6 H, 3 W
July 11 – 4 IP and 5 ER, 7 H, 3 W
July 24 – 4 IP and 5 ER, 9 H, 2 W
Aug 29 – 4 IP and 3 ER, 5 H, 3 W
Oct 1 – 4 IP and 4 ER, 10 H, 2 W
If that is what’s considered “solid” these days, then all I can say is … solid writing, Simon ;O)
@Fever Pitch Guy
What are you referencing?
York – Your suggestion to trade Judge, which you didn’t present as a joke.
“What are you referencing”
He wanted to make it about the Red Sox and how bad they are. So he took your Judge comment and flipped it over so it was about Bello.
Judge comment was dumb and had nothing to do with the pitching notes article
Bello finished really strong. He had an adjustment period in his first four starts then pitched out of the bullpen next two appearances then finished very strong except for the final start against Toronto. He has great stuff he has a chance to be really good starter this is bad news for his career hopefully it’s just a blip but it’s ominous to hear the words forearm tightness/pain.
Bruin – I agree he’s a good prospect who had a good 5-game stretch last year, but when you give up 10 hits and 2 walks in just 4 innings like he did in his last game I wouldn’t call that a strong finish.
I hope he’s going to be okay, but his absence wouldn’t hurt this year’s team too much. First he has to prove himself.
I get your point, but he really was much better than the numbers look. He had absolutely horrendous luck and got screwed by the defense a lot. 16% of the hits he gave up were just weakly hit pop ups or grounders, dead last among all qualifying pitchers and twice the league average for pitchers. So he was inducing tons of weak contact as he was supposed to, it’s just that nobody was fielding them.
slam – I dunno, the thing about luck is that it tends to even out.
If a hitter steps to the plate 10 times he will probably have one or two lucky bounces for hits, and he will probably get robbed once or twice.
I definitely think Bello has talent, hope he’s okay.
Bello had a 2.94 FIP.
@Fever Pitch Guy
So, I said trade Judge and you post sone pitching stats? Does Judge pitch now?
@RemoveManagerWinsFromTheRecordBooks
I was replying to yankeedoodledandy who was talking about the Yankees offense.
York – It’s called steering the discussion back on topic. This is an article about four pitchers, of which Bello is one of them. Criticizing me for commenting on the article is even more silly than your trade proposal.
They were 2nd in runs scored per game in ’22 right behind the Dodgers.
This is 2023. Is the same offense from the first half or second half showing up?
Probably a mix of both. Mike King and DJL will both be healthy and they won’t have Chapman and Gallo stinking up the joint. Jury is still out on Donaldson.
The problem with 2022-2023 Yankees is they strike out to much and great pitching beats them every time. Imo you will never win a World Series in Judge in the 3 hole. Good off speed chews up your weak MVP The Yankees of the late 90s early 2000s were a gritty tough at bat after tough at bat. 2020s Yankees are so soft.
Sryphil – You mention Judge in the 3-hole?
He had a grand total of 30 PA’s in the 3-hole last year, and 662 PA’s in the 1-2 holes.
As a Red Sox fan, I hope the Yanks continue to bat him that high in the lineup.
Aaron Judge batted third in only 7 games in 2022. His usual spot was the two hole, where he had 506 PA.
He had his best results leading off last year.
Unknown – No offense but “best results” is kinda silly to say, considering he had more than three times as many PA’s batting second.
Great hitters can hit in any spot in the lineup, that’s not the issue.
The issue is what spot can he do the most damage.
When you bat leadoff you can’t drive in any runners in your first PA, and you have far fewer PA’s with RISP because typically the two worst hitters on the team are batting in front of you.
And you are more likely to be walked with nobody on base, rather than with guys on base.
No offense taken.
His wRC+ batting leadoff is 235:
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/aaron-judge/15640/splits?position=OF&season=2022
https://library.fangraphs.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2010/02/wRC-Flash-Card-7-19-15-e1437317254601.png
Unknown – I don’t disagree he had better all-situational numbers batting leadoff, what I’m saying is the much smaller number of leadoff PA’s makes it far more likely for those numbers to be skewed.
Also using the same link you provided, his wRC+ is 222 with RISP which is much better than without RISP.
And his basic numbers with RISP are the best across the board (.346/.520/.721/1.241).
So it’s fair to say he performs his best when there are RBI opportunities, which doesn’t happen nearly as often batting leadoff.
Old York shouldn’t have to “present” it as a joke. It was pretty obvious for 99% of people. Not in a hilarious way, but in the facetious way everyone in this site suggests trades that won’t happen.
Fever, those are good points, but there’s another wrinkle — how often does a leadoff hitter actually bat first in an inning? It’s only around 40% of the time, so in most of his ABs there’s a chance he might be batting with men on. Last year he had 25 RBI as a leadoff hitter, but only 13 home runs, so obviously there had to be men on for some of those RBI.
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/1/9/5279736/how-often-batters-actually-bat-their-batting-order-position
Another thing: he gets more at-bats in the course of a game when batting first than when batting third.
Here, here! Court is adjourned.
unknown – It’s been a few months since I’ve posted this, so here it is again straight from the Godfather of Sabermetrics:
Lineup — Plate Appearances — Times with Men On Base
1 — 767 — 259
2 — 749 — 323
3 — 732 — 351
So the advantage of batting him leadoff is less than 6 PA’s per month.
The disadvantage of batting him leadoff is 92 fewer RBI opportunities.
I don’t know about you, but I’m gladly forfeiting the 35 PA’s for the 92 additional RBI opportunities.
Fever, that’s very interesting. If you have a link to an article expanding on that, I’d love to read it. I’m guessing you’re referring to Bill James.
In Judge’s case, he had RBI in 16% of his PA batting leadoff and 15% of his PA batting third. If he has substantially more RBI opportunities batting third, it would seem to be the place to bat him.
Only have about 500k to spend and stay under the Cohen-tax line. There will be no buying at the deadline if they wish to remain under.
Nope
Look on the bright side. Cashman might not make any trades and that’s a good thing because his trade history is awful at best. What scares me is that I expect Cashman to overextend Bader to a 7-8 year deal.
Regarding Bello: Ruh-Roh!
Forearm tightness. Two days off from throwing works like a charm! Followed by an MRI in 10 days, and Tommy John in three weeks.
remulak – How is it possible that a 23-year-old pitcher has health issues? According to some “fans” here, it’s only pitchers over 30 who have the injuries … especially the ones that Bloom decides not to sign.
So I guess maybe pitchers in their mid to late 20’s can have injuries just like pitchers in their 30’s? Hmmm … who woulda thunk it!
Fever – the number of young arms needing a TJ or a brace procedure keeps climbing because they throw so many offspeed/breaking balls in HS/college, then through all the minors.
Years ago they didn’t do much off speed in HS, and you saw guys really start throwing it at the upper levels of the minors as they polished up for their mlb debuts.
So. Of all the question marks in the Boston rotation, one of the few guys you thought could be counted on for durability is looking bad. If he can’t throw many off speed pitches and over relies on the FB he likely gets hammered. If he goes back to a heavy breaking pitch arsenal he’s going to fight IL time all season.
So add one more injury problem to the rotation….
Also, add another one to the count. Pivetta is still recovering from covid according to the official party line of bs.
BUT. they say pivetta threw a pitch, went to the ground, and left the field with a trainer. That doesn’t sound like ‘building back strength from covid’ to me.
He also didn’t participate in fielding drills later in the day. Again, the official word is that he’s building back from covid so they elected not to have him do so.
Yet he left with a trainer for treatment. Yeah right. Because this front office has been so honest and transparent.
So, that one also bears watching.
GASox – Everything I’ve heard is that it’s the higher velocity that causes TJS, not offspeed stuff.
https://www.si.com/edge/2016/06/13/fastballs-curveballs-tommy-john-surgery-mlb-youth-baseball-prevention#:~:text=Throwing%20fastballs%E2%80%94not%20curveballs%E2%80%94linked,John%20surgery%20for%20baseball%20players.
Researchers at the American Sports Medicine Institute (ASMI) in Alabama studied biomechanical data on 452 professional pitchers last year, as well as using 3D motion capture to gather retrospective analysis on 64 pitchers. Their goal was to measure the relationship between fastball velocity and elbow-varus torque in pitchers.
Elbow-varus torque is an internal rotational torque that is often the peak torque placed on the elbow. The UCL and surrounding muscles must support the load. The overall results of the studies “suggested that increased velocity does increase the injury risk,” according to SI.
Only a small percentage — 7.6% — of the variance in load between subjects was explained by velocity. Mechanics and a player’s build also play a role. But for each individual player, velocity accounted for 95.7% in the variance in elbow-varus torque. This backs up the anecdotal evidence that a velocity increase also increases the stress on a pitcher’s elbow.
Some additional info:
“Bello’s bullpen was full of breaking balls — a pitch he isn’t used to throwing — and began to feel the tightness earlier in the week.”
“Bello feels “much better” and is anxious to test his arm out Monday when he begins throwing again.”
https://nesn.com/2023/02/red-soxs-brayan-bello-feeling-much-better-after-being-shut-down
Bello normally throws fastballs, sliders and changeups, but was apparently working on a curveball and experienced forearm tightness.
That was interesting, thanks for the link.
There’s studies with younger throwers (adolescent, high school, etc) that suggest a higher correlation with the breaking stuff to injuries and strain in the arms.
There’s also imperfect studies at the mlb level that attempts to take fastball speed and compare it to incidence of TJ/elbow strain issues. But, even as it says it finds harder fastball throwers had higher TJ incidence, as well as the strain that the higher torque generates, it disclaims that individual mechanics and body type differences weren’t taken into account.
For my money, I say all the above can be factors. But I’m a firm believer that off speed pitches will do more to harm the elbow for certain body types, and for certain mechanics, than just a higher speed fastball would with that same individual.
There you go kids, focus on fastballs only, even at age 40. As long as you can throw 120 MPH for 9 innings, you’ll have a long career.
That’s right, Mr. Nolan Ryan
Some kids walked across your lawn this morning, didn’t they?
York – Your point would have made more sense if you had said 120 MPH for 5 innings.
Expecting starting pitchers to face the same hitters more than twice in a game is cruel and unusual punishment, remember?
@Fever Pitch Guy
I’m sorry man. Maybe they should only face them once.
Yankee speak:
“Health is always the question with him. I feel like he’s done everything he needs to this offseason. He’s been around Tampa. He’s been at the complex. He’s getting his work in. Physically, he looks like he’s in a good spot. I think everything we’ve wanted out of him this offseason, he’s answered the bell. He’s ready to go this year. We feel good about the way he’s reported,”
Lots of words with absolutely nothing said. It’s like he’s ventriloquist Doctor Boonedoggle’s dummy.
It’s like he’s ventriloquist Doctor Boonedoggle’s dummy.
==========================
I thought they were quoting Boone before I saw Blake’s name. It just sounds like someone says just before someone’s arm falls off.
Joe, if you Google The Athletic Sam Fuller, you can read a cautionary tale of just how hard it is to pitch professionally.
“It just sounds like someone says just before someone’s arm falls off”
Kind of like Bello’s “forearm tightness”
Caution .Seems like the right thing to do. Bello is a good prospect.
Last thing the Sox need is for Bello to go down. Hopefully it’s nothing. I’m excited to see how spending the winter working out and learning from Pedro Martinez turns out
In reference to Bello., you can’t rush prospects through the minors and not expect health issues.
I don’t think they rushed Bello. He started 2022 in AA and started 7 games and had a 1.69 ERA. He then moved to AAA and started 10 games and had a 2.76 ERA. He was then promoted to the Red Sox. Bello had nothing left to prove in the minor leagues.
Not only do I also think they didn’t necessarily rush bello, but, the issues he’s having has nothing to do with any speed he moved through the system.
In his starts last season he didn’t say in a ton of innings, and, didn’t go to obscene pitch counts either.
GA: Agreed.
Severino is a testament to Cashman’s stubbornness and stupidity. When a pitcher is 5’11”, has two great pitches, and an iffy changeup, you move him to the pen. Alas, Severino has struggled against great lineups and has had TJS and shoulder problems. He would have been a stud high leverage reliever.
This sentence isn’t written in proper English:
“Yankees starter Luis Severino is entering his walk year, so naturally hoping for a strong, and healthy, campaign.”
Since MLBTR sucks at editing. here is how it should be written.
“Yankees starter Luis Severino is entering his walk year, so naturally, he is hoping for a strong and healthy campaign.”