Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter, who underwent imaging on his elbow over the weekend after reporting discomfort, has been diagnosed with a “right proximal ulnar collateral ligament sprain,” per the team. He sought a second opinion from surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who confirmed the diagnosis. Both the Phillies medical staff and Dr. ElAttrache recommended a four-week shutdown from throwing, after which Painter will begin a “light tossing progression.”
On the one hand, any injury to a pitcher’s UCL is a brutal and ominous blow. The ulnar collateral ligament is the ligament that is replaced during Tommy John surgery, and a sprain indicates some degree of stretching and/or tearing, by definition. That said, surgery for Painter shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion just yet. Dr. ElAttrache is one of the sport’s most prominent surgeons and orthopedic experts, and both he and the team apparently agree that the extent of the sprain is not severe enough to require immediate surgery. Time will tell whether Painter is able to avoid going under the knife, but it’s at least relatively good news that he hasn’t suffered a significant enough tear to wipe out his entire 2023 season just yet.
There are plenty of examples of pitchers avoiding surgery even after being diagnosed with UCL damage — Masahiro Tanaka, Ervin Santana, Anthony DeSclafani and Painter’s own teammate Aaron Nola among them. Of course, it’s only fair to point out that the majority of UCL sprains do ultimately lead to surgery, be it a Tommy John procedure (ligament replacement) or an internal brace of the current ligament, which comes with a shorter recovery time but is only possible for certain sprains (depending on the placement of the tear within the ligament and the severity of the tear).
For now, Painter’s shutdown takes him out of the running for the Phillies’ Opening Day rotation — a competition in which he was a prominent factor despite being just 19 years of age. Painter was the No. 13 overall pick in the 2021 draft and has soared through the Phillies’ system to the cusp of MLB readiness in less than two years’ time. He pitched across three levels in 2022 — Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A — working to a combined 1.56 ERA with a massive 38.7% strikeout rate, a strong 6.2% walk rate and a tiny 0.43 HR/9 mark through 103 2/3 frames. Both Baseball America and MLB.com rank Painter as the game’s best pitching prospect and one of the top six overall prospects in the sport.
It’s not the only bad news on the Phillies’ rotation front, either. Left-hander Ranger Suarez, who’d been on Team Venezuela’s roster in the World Baseball Classic, has left the tournament and returned to the Phillies due to tightness in his left forearm, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweeted this morning. The Phillies believe the injury to be minor and merely exercising caution, but it’s still a notable situation that bears monitoring. He’ll undergo treatment with the club for the time being.
Suarez, 27, has solidified himself as a quality middle-of-the-rotation arm behind aces Nola and Zack Wheeler in recent seasons. He started 29 games for Philadelphia in 2022, pitching to a strong 3.65 ERA with a 19.5% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 55.4% ground-ball rate.
With Painter sidelined, left-hander Bailey Falter becomes the clear front-runner for the fifth spot in the Philadelphia rotation behind Nola, Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and — assuming he’s healthy enough come Opening Day — Suarez. If Suarez and Painter are both sidelined to begin the season, the Phillies will likely choose among a group including Cristopher Sanchez, Michael Plassmeyer, James MacArthur and prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at each pitcher earlier in camp when profiling the Phillies’ fifth starter candidates.
Lovely, but resting him wasa good idea regardless.
Even as a braves fan I’m a huge Andrew Painter fan, hopefully he gets better soon and dominates MLB, well, except when he plays my favorite team :)!
We will be able to next see Andrew Painter on the mound in 2025. Might as well get the surgery now. Only prolonging the certain outcome.
I don’t know, IMO I would save surgery as a last resort. I had a botched surgery when I played in highschool about a billion and a half years ago (not TJS but shoulder surgery). It was recommended by a “doctor” because he claimed I would have issues that would continue to flare up if I didn’t. My shoulder was never the same after the surgery, granted it wasn’t like I was a good player who had any future in the game but I know I would have been better off without that surgery. Get multiple opinions before commiting to any type of surgery. A lot of these “surgeons” are just con men with a degree.
This could be worse. Hopefully he can start throwing before he turns 20 (April 10)
I’d give Dylan Bundy a shot. Not expecting a whole lot out of him, but I think a case could be made that his value potential is a bit higher than some of the in-house options. Cost is so minimal that the “why not?” side seems stronger than the “why?” side.
With two questionable forearms before the season even begins, it sounds reasonable to take out some insurance.
@raltongo
How minimal is the cost? He may want more than you think.
Bundy has always seemed like a guy that is just about to break out. Unfort4 he lost some velo few years ago and has been mediocre since
This is good news I guess? I mean, we all knew it would be UCL, so I suppose a potentially milder strain isn’t the worst news. Still feels like TJS is looming…
Not necessarily. There are plenty of pitchers who’ve avoided surgery following a UCL sprain (as noted in the post). Aaron Nola had a mild UCL sprain back in 2016, never had surgery, and has made a full slate of starts each season except 2017 — when he made 27 starts and still threw 168 innings.
It’s obviously a distinct possibility that Painter will ultimately require surgery. It might even be considered likely, depending on the extent of the sprain — most UCL sprains do require surgery — but there are quite a few prominent examples of pitchers dodging that bullet.
Of course, he’ll still be sidelined quite awhile even if he does, so it’s not a great situation, but there’s some hope yet that he’ll avoid a worst-case scenario.
Ahhh, the dreaded UCL sprain. A lot of that going around Steve. I’ll bet the percentage of guys who avoid surgery is pretty low. Then you take the risk of rehab vs. surgery and that’s way more time wasted before you even start Surgery. It could turn a year and a half into 2 and a half or 3 years. Obliques and UCL’s, epidemic this year it seems.
That’s not plenty when compared to how many don’t avoid surgery. That’s a few.
Is there any database of injuries? I’d be curious to see what the percentage of pitchers diagnosed with a UCL sprain to avoid eventually having surgery over the last 10-15ish years is.
It’s not good anyway you slice it, or don’t slice it for that matter. Now Ranger is hurt too,
On a chilly, rainy and dreary day, this news did not help to alleviate my mood. I guess that the news was expected by now, but even a milder UCL sprain is cause for ongoing concern.
Take care of the Franchise, DD.
Chilly, rainy and dreary….You in chicago too?
The whole week has been like this and adding in Suarez / forearm, it just got a little darker. Guess we’ll be getting a few starts from the assorted aaa depth guys?
Who will get the first shot at the 5 spot?
Dylan Bundy
Every time you hear a pitcher has tenderness or soreness in their elbow, you almost just lose hope. Hopefully all goes well, and the Phillies fans can see their top prospect pitcher in 2024.
Reminds of Jackass, when they smash the guy’s “stuff” out of nowhere.
Empty and painful…But I’ll stay positive, even though it might hurt.
He’s the future. Fans had hopes he could be the present too, but Phillies do not need to rush it. They’re okay for now. They have a solid rotation although the depth will be tested.
True. Painter will heal and begin throwing in a month. In all reality, the Phillies would have probably limited his innnings, so there may be a small silver lining to this. If all goes well he will get a few starts in LHV and may be available for the stretch run.
Ranger is the one that worries me. They need him healthy. Falter can ho,d down the #5 spot no problem, but with Ranger down as well, that makes the starting corps relatively thin. No sure Abel of Mc Garry are close to ready. Plassmyer looks okay, but he is not Ranger. Hopefully it’s minor swelling and he’s being evaluatred on “an abundence of caution”
Completely agree. If Ranger goes down, a mid-season acquisition is needed.
McGarry is not ready. Not sure about Abel but also don’t think they want to rush him yet. Don’t think he’s in the discussion for a spot right now.
Agreed. It’s Falter and Plass.
Wouldn’t hurt if you guys picked up Archer or Bundy as depth pieces I think.
Not sure if either is better than their internal options.
The thing to remember is: there is a big difference as to when you get TJS. Get it as a MiL player and your clock never starts while rehabbing. Get it after you’ve been up in the big leagues and the arb years and free agency come fast.
Wheeler is a case in point. The Mets years of control to 2.5 years of rehab and surgeries and finding his consistency.
*lost years of control
No doubt in my mind Tanaka should have gotten his UCL repaired. He was one of the most impressive pitchers I’ve ever witnessed. He had a 5 pitch mix with good enough velocity and Madduxesque command as a rookie. I don’t think he was ever the same guy though after the injury. My worry with Painter is similar. I trust the Drs but hopefully he isnt just prolonging the inevitable. The sport needs these electric pitchers healthy man.
It’s Friday, so I’ll take the mini Sixers option so as not to ruin my weekend:
There would have been big issues limiting Painter’s ip if he opened the season in the rotation. Given his talent and the Phillies WS aspirations… An innings limit would have hindered his playoff usage.
Why not IL him, so he accrues MLB service time (I think?), keeping Boras happy….and “debut him” after the all star break? And have him fresh for a playoff run…?
Possible…? Sure, so until any official knife appointments are made, this is my story….
eh they might play the service time game now, though, being that the pretext for keeping him off the active roster is apparent.
Obvious TMJ and the phillies are just trying not to “bum” their fans out right before the season starts.
Disagree. Phillies are stacked without Painter and will play well with ot without him. When you think about it, they already were not sure if Painter would start the season with the club. The bigger problem here is Suarez.
Ranger Suarez is the most underrated pitcher in baseball IMO.
Ironic coming as a fan of many Rangers 😉
Iconic?
Can never have enough SP depth. NYM face to face with it. Now PHI
Cancel the season!
RIP
Will the Phillies or anyone else take a chance on Trevor Bauer this season? I doubt but someone may.
He’s not an option for any team. Get over it.
Not sure what that has to do with my comment but if someone wanted to take Bauer I think they would have worked out a trade with the Dodgers when they DFA’d him. Like send the Dodgers an org filler and take maybe a mil or two of the remaining money.
Apparently after MLB found him not guilty, Bauer and the Dodgers had a meeting. In typical Bauer fashion, it did not go well. He showed no remorse and refused the whole “mea culpa” to the public, so the Dodgers cut bait…
Not a huge fan of Bauer, but he’s a fairly intelligent guy…so for him to act like this (caveat, he’s already made a bus load of $) I am curious what his next step is?
Just not with the Phillies…
I assume the Phillies will be overly cautious with Painter. Maybe they caught it before surgery is needed. Bad for baseball when so many young players need TJ surgery.
You don’t need a comma before “either” in that sentence, Steve. It’s patently unnecessary. Why won’t you learn this?
I intended to reply to this comment instead. Also, it should be journalists. Comment fail
If journalist could write properly, they would have real jobs. Just think about it.
Dude makes a living following baseball. You may be right, it’s not a real job:
But a REAL GREAT job…..
It could be worse. He could waste his time going on social media sites looking for grammatical errors.
MLB Trade Rumors writers have great jobs for sure, but non sports guys… probably not as much. I would easily trade jobs with this guy, but most journalists don’t write for credible sports sites, and many journalists work for ESPN, The Athletic, Yahoo, etc.
Not good news . Hopefully this isn’t a Tommy John situation. They need to err on the side of caution. Along with Suarez this could go south quickly. Hopefully Falter is up to the challenge and everyone else recovers quickly.
W/o sounding weird, Falter is a very good #5….but if Suarez is to miss time…he now becomes the #4. And there was already some talk about the Phillies going the 6man rotation at some point this summer due to:
Wheeler: wearing down last year
Nola: pitching a lot of innings the past few years and a deep run last year
Suarez: still building up his SP arm
Walker: lousy late season output for the last few years
Falter: 131 TOTAL ip’s last year
AAA promise, but unknowns Plassmeyer, Sanchez, McArthur (40 man guys)
So, in short -in Caleb Cotham we trust….
considering what the other possible outcome could have been this is a major sigh of relief for the Phils
Looks like the markets for Bundy, Archer, Pineda, and Minor might start heating up real soon
Call up the Tigers a day grab a starter. Eduardo Rodriguez, Spencer Turnbull… We made out well getting Vierling, Maton and Sands in out last trade with you new best friends 😉 No doubt they would be made available.
Regarding Painter, how much of this is attributable to his overthrowing because of the pre-spring training hints that he was a candidate for the 5th rotation spot?