Full-season minor leagues are all active. This week on Big Hype Prospects, we’ll take a look at some of the early-season leaders at various levels.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Jo Adell, 24, OF, LAA (AAA)
42 PA, 7 HR, .353/476/1.088
We’ve been here before with Adell, a prospect who isn’t technically a prospect anymore. Over the last three seasons, Adell has amassed 561 plate appearances at Triple-A. In that time, he’s hit 43 home runs. Though he’s yet to make an impact at the Major League level, his batted ball characteristics are encouraging. Adell enjoys above-average exit velocities. He’s battled inconsistency with his launch angle in the Majors, an issue that hasn’t been as apparent in the minors. Optimists, myself included, still believe he can make the adjustments necessary to make a splash on the big stage. Presently, he has one single, four doubles, and seven home runs.
Spencer Jones, 21, OF, NYY (A+)
15 PA, 1 HR, .462/.533/.846
A hulking outfielder with mammoth power, Jones will inevitably be compared to Aaron Judge. The left-handed hitting slugger also has surprising mobility as evidenced by 10 steals in 95 Low-A plate appearances last season. He’s expected to stick in center field despite his size. Scouts fret about his hit tool – much as they once did with Judge. It’s also fair to note that Jones only began to play like a true prospect partway through his draft season. We’re working with a short track record of success. In the low minors, he’s managed a swinging strike rate around 12 percent, a figure similar to that managed by Judge last season and better than most power-over-contact sluggers.
Jordan Lawlar, 20, SS, ARI (AA)
13 PA, 1 HR, 2 SB, .300/.462/.600
Considered one of the best athletes in the minors, Lawlar could surge to top overall prospect status later this summer. The only drawback with Lawlar is a below-average hit tool which could affect his consistency at the dish. Otherwise, he’s a disciplined batter with burgeoning power and above-average speed. He’s defensively adept. Few prospects are as blue chip as Lawlar. He has a chance to force the Diamondbacks hand this season, much as Corbin Carroll did in 2022. Worth noting, his home venue with Double-A Amarillo is considered one of the friendliest for hitters.
Elijah Green, 19, OF, WSH (A)
13 PA, 2 SB, .500/.548/.583
Green is the sort of prospect fantasy baseball fans love – a legitimate 30/30 threat with room to exceed even those heady aspirations. Over his brief pro career, a span of just 65 plate appearances, he’s made the most of his contact. He’s also susceptible to strikeouts, an issue that has plagued him since he gained prospect fame as a high school junior. Despite more than ample speed to remain in center field, early reports suggest he’ll be better suited to an outfield corner due to poor reads and inefficient routes. Time and effort could salve those concerns. Even if he lands in a corner, his power is more than ample. Now we wait to learn if he makes enough contact. The downside might look something like an outfielder version of Patrick Wisdom.
Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (A)
15 PA, .462/.533/.692
A left-handed hitter, Holliday has the talent and baseball acumen to carve out a long career. While I usually go out of my way to describe how a prospect might fail – public analysis is susceptible to unfettered optimism – there isn’t much to say about Holliday. If things go his way, he could finish 2023 at Double-A with a chance to debut in mid-2024. The Orioles have taken a more temperate approach with their other recent top prospects. Those players, like Gunnar Henderson, required considerable development before they truly looked like Major League players. Holliday seemingly doesn’t require a breakout or new skills development. He’s in want of experience and age-related strength.
Three More
Matt Liberatore, STL (23): Profiled last week, Liberatore’s second turn of the season was a near-mirror replica of his first start. In both cases, he pitched five innings allowing a pair of walks with seven strikeouts. The Cardinals are experiencing some difficulties with their starting pitchers so we might see Liberatore soon.
Chase Silseth, LAA (22): Silseth, like Liberatore, was profiled last week and held opponents scoreless for a second consecutive appearance. Overall, he’s pitched 11 innings with only three hits allowed, three walks, and 13 strikeouts. The Angels are accustomed to running a six-man rotation in the Shohei Ohtani era and could call upon Silseth.
Hao-Yu Lee, PHI (20): Lee has demonstrated discipline, feel for contact, and pull-oriented power. He doesn’t appear on Top 100 prospect lists mainly due to his size and modest mobility. Lee was developed as a utility fielder but could settle permanently at second base this season. He should reach the upper minors by mid-season.
It’s really enough with the Jo Adell talk. Dude is a 4th-5th OF. Nothing more. He can still carve out a nice path, but y’all need to dead the prospect talk on him. That ship sailed.
Watched several of his HR’s over the weekend. All just meatball hangers, and he K’d most of the other AB’s. True he’s not missing the meatballs when he gets them, but I’m not sure it’s gonna translate to the relatively meat-free MLB.
35% K rate in AAA this season. He already has 7 BB in 42 PA or 17% to go along with that, so he has more than doubled his 8% BB rate in AAA prior to 2023.
Kid has insane power and in the past has not been able to harness it because he struck out 15% more than average and practically never drew a walk. Just 11 BB in 284 PA (3.8%) for the Angels last season and 52 BB in 650 PA in AAA from 2019-2022.
I got it wrong. Adell is striking out 28.6% of the time in AAA this year. Thought it was based on AB, its base on PA. fangraphs.com/players/jo-adell/20220/stats?positio…
If he can maintain 28.6% SO and 16.7% BB with even 1/3 the power he has exhibited so far, then he will be back with the Angels and starting games when the first injury hits
I don’t disagree w/ you. He still is only 24 years old and only started hitting when he was 16. Can still project much greater than he has shown, but not really a prospect anymore
Actually he’s just a AAAA guy. Great at triple A, just can’t put it together in the big leagues. He’s young enough, might change though.
Unfortunately I see Jabari Blash when I see Adell. I hope I’m wrong as he just turned 24. But Angels fans remember Dallas McPherson and Brandon Wood and there are similarities
Dallas McPherson had a bad back.. Brandon Wood had a 816 OPS at AAA.
When Wood was 24. He had a 910 OPS in the PCL. Let’s see what Adell does in his 24 year.
Bash was horrible at 24 in the PCL. He hit 210.
People keep throwing up comps but the comps are not very good.
He’s great at AAA? He hit under 240 in the PCL with a 31 KRate pct.
Either you don’t know what you are talking about or you don’t know the definition of great
Yeah, I’m pretty sure most Angels fans are over the hype-train when it comes to Adell — at least those of us who have been paying attention. I’ll hold my opinions on Silseth for the moment.
What hype is left for Adell?
Adell is still considered a prospect?
No, he exceeded rookie limits in 2021. I don’t know why of all players, they chose to include him once again. I get that at one point, he was a very hyped prospect, but that ship has sailed.
For the clicks boo
he exceeded them in 2020, but regardless I got what you were saying
7 HR in 34 AB or one every 5 AB in AAA is hype worthy. Its a record to start a season.
OILF – What no one talks about though is during that same span, he struck out at a rate of 40%. Adell is becoming a one trick pony with the long ball. Most other aspects of his game are still not good.
Not to mention none of Adell’s few successes at the minor league level have carried over to the big leagues over several call ups.
He hit 239 in the PCL last year. On what planet is that a success?
If you want to say he showed growth in 2021, after the Covid year, I agree. But that growth died last year, as well as his shine.
What’s going to happen in 2023. You’re guess is as good as mine, but it’s nothing more than a guess.
For clarification, Adell’s SO rate was 40% during when he hit a home run in 6 straight games. It currently sits at 35%..
I think you guys are confusing at-bats with plate appearances. He’s struck out at a 28.8% rate this year, not 35%. That’s still not good, but that’s a difference of over 6%.
I’m often confused so…
Prov, very valid point. I’m very concerned about the KRate and I look at that more than the HRs
But let’s break this down. Lost most of 2019 with a leg injury. Lost all of 2020 because of Covid. Made huge strides in 2021. Took a huge step back in 2022. Went to Driveline in 2023 and now is now.
I don’t know what will happen next. Neither does anyone else. Your guess is as good as mine. But I won’t bet on him again until the KRate drops to the mid 20s.
MLB 1225. Are you talking about Adell. 12\42 is .2875.
@Halo11Fan Yes, that’s 28.8%. Move the decimal over two places and round 28.75% to 28.8%.
How could I misread your numbers. Wow.
Thanks for your nicer than I deserved answer.
Jo Adell seems to be on the Clint Hurdle path.
On the cover of Sports Illustrated?
On the Billy Beane track
If he’s pitching well, Aside from Montgomery, Liberatore should be considered for a start in Pittsburgh for anyone. Can’t hurt.
Adell is still just 24. There have been breakouts from players older than that. But I seriously doubt Adell will ever break out with the Angels. Mainly because they don’t have room for him, but also because of the hype surrounding him. People forget that these 21 year old guys can read all the same hype that we read. That is a lot of undeserved pressure on a young man and some don’t handle it well. If he is traded, a fresh start in a new location without the crazy expectations might give him a chance to have a decent big league career. Maybe not the HOF career that people wanted, but at his age he could still have a Charlie Blackmon type career if he got a chance with a new organization. And that is nothing to sneeze at.
I don’t think he’ll ever be a productive player until he overcomes his strikeouts. Even though strikeouts are on the rise, there are still very few players who strikeout as often as Adell and are productive. Until he fixes that, opponents have one major way of taking advantage of him.
i think his hitting home runs is exactly the problem. he should cut down his swing and start hitting more doubles and singles. and, in turn, reduce strike outs.
as long as moreno owns the team he won’t spend money on scouting and development.
Hitting home runs is a problem?!?!? That’s an interesting perspective.
It’s a strange way to think, but it kind of is true. Look at Chris Carter. He was a very productive home run hitter, in fact he led the NL in homers in 2016. But he could barely get a contract in 2017 even though he was still only 30. Strikeouts were his downfall too.
Adell’s plate decisions are his biggest problem. Strikeouts are the result.
I don’t think it’s his swing. Carter walked 76 times when he led the NL in home runs. His swing might have been the problem.
If Adell walked 76 times., I think he’d be a star.
swing to hit home runs has been his problem. he was called up when the season was lost and just about every hitter swang for fences. naturally obp went down and strikes went up.
mike trout can sometimes swing to hit home runs but he can hit walk, get singles or doubles. that is why he is the great hitter.
Fansgraphs had a great article explaining his problem. It’s his plate decisions. You should goggle it.
They have room for him next year. They’ll have opening in RF and DH.
And Trout hasn’t played a lot over the last two years.
If he can get his K pct to the mid twenties, that growth could easily lead to a good career.
Once he turns 25, the bloom is off Adell, sadly. From post hype to bust. At that point- it’s hello from the other side
Very possibly the bloom is off when he turns 25. Good thing he just turned 24. But if he doesn’t improve this year. You’re likely right.
I absolutely agree, hiflew. Adell is young enough he could still put it together, but I think he needs a change of scenery to ever have a chance. It’s just not clicking in Los Angeles for him, and maybe a different voice would help him unlock his potential. At the very least, the pressure would be off to a degree. If he comes up and struggles out of the gate, it wouldn’t be here we go again. Plus he’s still young enough the Angels could probably get something decent in return.
Jones will be a top 50 prospect by the end of the year
But apparently he’s “hulking” at 6’3″, 238 lbs.
The wrong Spencer Jones is linked. The one in question is 6’6″ as of his most recent measurement for the automated strike zone fitting
Thanks for the clarifications.
“The Angels are accustomed to running a six-man rotation in the Shohei Ohtani era” – until this season, when they announced Ohtani would pitch every sixth day, not every sixth game. So with off days it’s essentially a five-man rotation plus a swingman (Davidson), Silseth would have to crack the top five to get the consistent workload he needs at this point.
Someone will be injured soon enough and he’ll get his chance then.
Nice a Hoa-Yu Lee sighting.
He may turn out to be just a decent 2b bat, but seems like he plays with some passion. Now please don’t turn him into a 7 position player. Let him develop 2b/ss and focus on his hit tool.
Glad to see him mentioned….
Phillies have some interesting bats at the Rookie to A levels right now. Lee, Boyd, Crawford, Bergolla, Perez, Pouaka-Grego are all names to watch.
Article links to the wrong Spencer Jones. This one is an outfielder, while the link is to a pitcher.
Adell just turned 24. Man people.
When he was a young pup, lot of excitement. The edge of 17. 24 sadly is post hype. All bets are off once he reaches the other side of 24. Just the way the scouting biz works. No more rolling in the deep sadly
Dumpster. He’s getting close. Joyner at Salmon we’re 24 when they had their big rookie seasons. He’s not there yet.
I’m really looking forward to seeing Spencer Jones in the Bronx at some point next year. He should be able to abuse the short porch and is the perfect guy to slot in the lineup behind Judge
I met Jackson Holliday at spring training this year. What an impressive young man.
Off the field, polite, respectful and seemingly wise beyond his just-turned-19 years, you can tell he was raised in a major league family. On the field, the physical talent and tools are easy to see but, to me, it’s the little things he does out there that really shine. He would also stick around after games and sign autographs until the last fan walked towards the exit.
He just “gets it”. Barring injury, expect to see him at AA Bowie before year end.
Skinsfandfw-
I’ve known the Hollidays since childhood. If there’s ever been a kid programmed for baseball success it’s Jackson. He’s about as grounded as can be. Better keep an eye on his little brother too.
If Lawler continues to develop he could get called up late this season. The Dbacks will almost certainly trade Nick Ahmed by the trade deadline. Ahmed’s on the last year of his contract and with Perdomo, Lawler and Alexander handling SS in ‘24, there is no way they will extend Ahmed. Either Lawler or Alexander will replace Ahmed in the second half of the season, backing up Perdomo who is off to a torrid start and looks like he has turned the corner.
Adell has 692 PA in AAA.
baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=ade…
Why are they still mentioning Adell…98% of the comments are about him. If you’re sick of him, stop talking about him.
I’ll say this, my man @bigdaddyt was right! It’s all about the clicks boo!
Fwiw, I don’t make any decisions for clicks. I’ve quit all those gigs. I included Adell because he’s prospect aged and off to the best start of all minor league hitters. I disagree with the prevailing definition of prospect using time in the Majors. A player is a prospect until they establish themselves or are no longer being developed as a future big leaguer.
And, clearly, I do check the comments now and then to get a better sense of what y’all want to read. I won’t promise no more Adell, but I’ll make sure he’s doing something special first.
I would think breaking minor league records is special.
Presently, he has one single, four doubles, and seven home runs.
===========================
…and 12 Ks in 34 ABs, which extrapolates to 212 in 600 ABs, which probably translates to 250+ in the pros.
The idea behind an opinion piece is to be unbiased. Pointing out the power is about 98% useless. He’s always had power. That was never in doubt. The Ks are the issue, and he has made very little progress. Not mentioning that is a major oversight.
Joe. It’s not the ABs, it’s the PAs. And he has a 29 percent strikeout rate which everyone agrees has to come down.. But he’s hitting 350. Are you complaining not enough of those are singles?
From last year, He’s improved his KRate by three percent and upped his batting average by 100 points, not to mention his walk rate from 11% to 17%., and he’s slugging by 137 points. How on Earth is that not progress?
He’s also shown progress defensively. Twenty four is pushing his prospect limits, but if he can grow a little more, he can be pretty darn good.
Send Adell to a team that can actually develop young guys. Worked for Marsh.
How’s O’Hoppe and Ward doing?
The only way I could ever see that happening is if his value falls so low that the Angels DFA him to clear a 40-man spot; they’d already be selling low on him as is, and while some teams might be high on him they’re unlikely to be as high on him as the Angels.
I’d love to see the DBacks dev team get a crack, though; if they could help him figure out how to be a competent MLB player (and McKay is very helpful in the OF defense and baserunning departments to say the least) and throw him into that OF mix with Carroll, Lewis, McCarthy, Smith, and Thomas (with Barrosa and Fletcher at AAA, and Robinson on the way back from Restricted)?
My Lord that would be ridiculous (and greedy lol).
Great athlete… phenomenal athlete. Great kid, hard worker. But Adell has poor bat to ball skills, poor plate discipline and poor plate coverage. MLB pitchers have dominated him in the past and will continue to do so in the future.
Imo, Adell will never be an average MLB player. Nor will he be a 4th OF because he is poor defensively and, while fast, a poor baserunner. I hope I’m wrong on all accounts, but I just don’t see it at all.
People who have studied this say his issues are his plate decisions.
How that becomes bad bat to ball skills and bad plate coverage is beyond me? However, it’s irrelevant. He went to Driveline this past offseason and altered his swing.
The results so far at AAA have been encouraging, to say the least
By the way, Outman is 26. Ward is now 29. Growth is not linear,
Let me sum up Adell.
He was a great prospect. Became more prospect than suspect. The last couple of years he’s move to more suspect than prospect. This year, after his improvements, he’s now equal parts suspect and prospect.
All opinion’s on which way he’ll go next are valid. As for me, that KRate needs to drop to the mid 20s before he becomes more prospect than suspect.
Why are you wasting our time and your time writing about Jo Adell as a top prospect. His prospect status ceases to exist, just like his ability to hit MLB pitching.
He’s answered that question and I agree. Just because a player doesn’t qualify for Rookie of the Year doesn’t mean he’s not a prospect.
He. Just turned 24 years old, and set Al all time PCL record. How is that not a prospect?
I’m really happy Adell is tearing up the PCL. I hope it continues and he can become the player all of us hoped he could be. The Angels are better if this occurs.
I’m surprised in all these comments, no one has said the words “small sample size.” Let’s keep our fingers crossed and see how the remainder of the season plays out.
For me, Adell is, was and will always be a tremendous athlete… he is not a baseball player. It was evident the first games I saw in 2020. By that time, the Angels had coached him up for 3+ years and should have known his limitations. The Angels should have maximized his unwarranted prospect status by trading him before it was obvious to the rest of MLB.