Jackson Holliday

Orioles GM Mike Elias spoke to reporters prior to this afternoon’s game against the Yankees and touched on a number of topics, including the club’s needs and goals ahead of the trade deadline as well as the status of two of the club’s key, upper-level prospects: infielders Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo. As noted by Roch Kubatko of MASN, Elias suggested to reporters that both Holliday and Mayo figure to factor into the club’s plans as “big contributors” in the second half this year.

Holliday, of course, is the consensus top prospect in the entire sport and got a brief cup of coffee at the big league level earlier this year. The 20-year-old looked overmatched in the majors at the time, slashing just .059/.111/.059 in 36 trips to the plate across ten games. He then returned to the Triple-A level and hit .252/.418/.429 over his next 40 games. That’s a solid overall slash line but a far cry from what Holliday had done in the past, especially looking at his production in early June, when he hit just .212 with a 26.7% strikeout rate and a .394 slugging percentage in ten games before being placed on the minor league IL due to what the club referred to at the time as a “barking” shoulder.

The young phenom returned to action after two weeks on the shelf and has looked more like himself at the plate, slashing a solid .250/.464/.425 in 12 games since returning. He’s been limited to appearances at DH since returning, but that restriction figures to come off soon as Elias told reporters (including Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball) this afternoon that Holliday will resume playing the field after the All-Star break. That should leave Holliday in line to take over a regular role at second base for the Orioles at some point in the second half.

Baltimore has been relying on a combination of Ramon Urias and Jorge Mateo to fill out the infield mix, with Jordan Westburg playing second base on days Urias is in the lineup and third base on days Mateo is in the lineup. Holliday’s arrival would likely open the door for Westburg to settle in at the hot corner on a more permanent basis while shifting both Urias and Mateo into bench roles. Of course, that infield picture figures to get complicated further by the introduction of Mayo, who Elias spoke of glowingly in conversation with reporters (including MLB.com’s Jake Rill) this afternoon.

“He is in an exceptionally good spot. We talk about him all the time,” Elias said of Mayo, according to Rill. “He’s very close. He’s going to help us this year. It’s just going to be about the right moment and the right opportunity and the right runway for something like that.“

Mayo’s readiness for a new challenge is all but undeniable at this point. The 22-year-old infielder posted a 127 wRC+ in 62 games at the Triple-A level last season and has followed it up with even stronger numbers this year. In 284 trips to the plate at Triple-A this season, Mayo has slashed an incredible .297/.380/.606 with a wRC+ of 147. While his 24.6% strikeout rate is perhaps a smidgen higher than is ideal, he more than makes up for the swing-and-miss with a 10.4% walk rate and a phenomenal 19 homers in just 63 games.

Talented as the slugger is, however, his roster fit in Baltimore is a difficult one to sort out. Mayo’s native position is third base, and that’s where he’s received almost all of his reps throughout the minors. With that being said, his defense has drawn mixed reviews and with Westburg likely to lock down the hot corner on an everyday basis upon Holliday’s ascension to the majors, that would leave Mayo on the outside looking in when it comes to reps at his natural position. Mayo has also received occasional time at first base, however, and it’s fairly easy to imagine him factoring in to the club’s first base/DH mix. Even that part of the roster is overcrowded, however, as Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn are currently splitting time there while Adley Rutschman also spends time at DH when not behind the plate and the club’s five outfield bats- Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, Cedric Mullins, and Heston Kjerstad– vie for what’s left of the playing time available at DH when not patrolling the grass.

The Orioles’ overflow of positional talent could, of course, be lessened somewhat by trades in the run-up to the deadline on July 30. Elias told reporters (including Dubroff) that while the front office is largely focused on the draft, which will run from tomorrow until Tuesday, the club will turn its attention toward the upcoming deadline afterwards and will have the flexibility to add payroll as they pursue additions. Kubatko adds that while Elias did suggest that payroll could increase under the club’s new ownership group, that doesn’t mean it’s “definitely” going to happen this summer and that the front office plans to be “disciplined” in their spending going forward, even as the purse strings loosen relative to where payroll had been under the Angelos family. Of course, even just reaching the vicinity of peak payroll under the Angelos family, which Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists as just under $165MM back in 2017, would offer the Orioles plenty of room to work with this summer and headed into the offseason.

In terms of specific needs, Elias acknowledged (as relayed by Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun) that adding a starting pitcher with multiple years of team control would be a “big bonus” for the club as they stare down an offseason where they’ll need to fill out an Opening Day rotation where only Grayson Rodriguez, rookie Cade Povich, and struggling righty Dean Kremer can be reliably penciled in thanks to the pending free agencies of John Means and Corbin Burnes as well as surgeries underwent by Means, Kyle Bradish, and Tyler Wells that figure to sideline them into 2025. Attractive as the addition of a controllable arm would be, however, Weyrich goes on to note that Elias made clear the club will be “approaching this deadline with 2024 front and center.”

A look at MLBTR’s Top 50 Trade Candidates for the summer will reveal a list littered with potential options that feature multiple years of control, ranging from breakout White Sox star Garrett Crochet and veteran righty Erick Fedde, to Rockies hurlers Cal Quantrill and Austin Gomber, and even Rays starters Zach Eflin and Zack Littell. While an intradivision trade with Tampa seems somewhat unlikely, the Orioles certainly have the farm system to acquire virtually any player they set their sights on, even without parting ways with Holliday or Mayo.

That said, it’s certainly feasible that the club could look to acquire shorter-term pitching options as well. Right-hander Jack Flaherty is the top rental pitcher on the market this summer and seems like a less than ideal fit after he struggled to a 6.75 ERA down the stretch with Baltimore last year, but hurlers like Frankie Montas, Michael Lorenzen, and Trevor Williams could also be available this summer as pure rentals depending on the competitiveness of their respective clubs in the run-up to the deadline. It would also hardly be a surprise to see the Orioles attempt to beef up a bullpen mix that recently lost left-hander Danny Coulombe to surgery that will keep him out of action until at least September.