Jorge Mateo was once one of the top prospects in baseball. An international signing of the Yankees out of the Dominican Republic in 2012, he showed obvious natural talent with blazing speed that allowed him to be valuable on the basepaths and on defense. In 2015, between Single-A and High-A, he stole 82 bases in 111 games. He only hit two home runs in that time but ran up a .278 batting average. His bat was generally considered the least polished part of his game, but he seemed to have a chance at being an all-around contributor in the future. Baseball America ranked him the #1 prospect in the Yankees’ system going into 2016 and #26 in the entire league.
In the years to come, however, his stock would fade as the approach at the plate didn’t seem to develop as hoped. He returned to High-A in 2016 and hit eight home runs but his batting average slipped to .254. Since he only walked in 6.5% of his plate appearances, his on-base percentage was a meager .306. In 2017, at High-A yet again, his walk rate dipped to 5.4% and his strikeout rate climbed from a decent 21.3% to a concerning 26.6%. That helped his batting average drop to .240 and his OBP to .288. He finally got bumped to Double-A and showed some positive strides, walking at a 10.7% clip in 30 games there, leading to a .300 batting average and .381 OBP. The Yanks then included him as one one of the three youngsters they sent to the Athletics in the deadline deal that brought Sonny Gray to the Bronx, alongside Dustin Fowler and James Kaprielian.
Though Mateo finished 2017 strong with his new organization, the concerns about his offense would be renewed the following year. Moved to Triple-A in 2018, he drew free passes in just 5.7% of his plate appearances while getting punched out in 27.3% of them. His .230/.280/.353 batting line led to a wRC+ of just 62. Back to Triple-A in 2019, he had a power breakout when he launched 19 home runs in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but he still walked at just a 5.1% clip and struck out 25.6% of the time.
Going into 2020, Mateo was out of options and still hadn’t made his major league debut. The A’s seemingly had little interest in giving him an active roster spot at that time. Transactions were frozen in March of 2020 when the pandemic put everything on pause, but once the freeze was lifted in June, the very first transaction in the league was Mateo getting flipped to the Padres for a player to be named later. That player was later reported to be outfield prospect Junior Perez.
The Padres kept Mateo on the roster in 2020 but didn’t hand him a regular role, giving him just 28 plate appearances over 22 games. The results weren’t encouraging in that brief time, as he walked in 3.6% of those trips to the plate and struck out in 39.3% of them. He managed to stick on the roster into the next season with the club still valuing his speed and defense, but he walked in just 2.2% of his plate appearances with the Friars in 2021 and struck out at a 29% clip, ultimately getting designated for assignment in August. The rebuilding Orioles put in a claim and put Mateo into 32 games but he finished the year on the injured list due to right lumbar inflammation.
Mateo was exactly the right kind of player for the O’s, who had been terrible for five years at that point and were still waiting for their top prospects to arrive. They could install him as a placeholder until the kids showed up and see if he did anything with the opportunity, with essentially nothing to lose if he failed. They made Mateo their everyday shortstop in 2022 and he showed that he could be a valuable player even with a poor performance at the plate. He did hit 13 home runs last year but the discipline issues were still there. He walked at just a 5.1% clip and was punched out in 27.6% of his appearances. He finished the year with a .221/.267/.379 batting line and 82 wRC+, indicating he was 18% below league average. However, he was on base enough to steal 35 bases. He also earned stellar grades for his glovework at short, including 14 Defensive Runs Saved, 11 Outs Above Average and a 7.4 grade from Ultimate Zone Rating, finishing in the top five among shortstops in each of those categories. The Fielding Bible Awards ranked him as the top shortstop in the league. FanGraphs valued Mateo’s season as being worth 2.7 wins above replacement, even with the subpar offense, while Baseball Reference gave him 3.4.
The O’s received some trade interest in Mateo over the winter, with clubs seemingly intrigued by how he could benefit from this year’s rule changes. The limits on pickoffs and defensive shifts were designed to encourage the exact kind of player that Mateo is, with plenty of speed and athleticism to showcase if given the chance. That appears to have proven true as he’s already swiped 12 bags this year, but Mateo has also seemingly made incredible progress with his long-standing issues at the plate. His 6.7% walk rate is still below league average but an improvement compared to his own track record. Meanwhile, he has struck out in just 20% of his plate appearances so far this year, a few ticks better than league average and far better than anything he had done in recent years.
Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Banner recently spoke to Mateo and co-hitting coach Matt Borgschulte about how they were going for a simplified approach at the plate this year, allowing Mateo to avoid chasing breaking balls so much, which seems to be working. Mateo’s swing rate on pitches outside the zone is 33.9% this year, which is still a bit above the 2023 league average of 31.4% but a big drop from the 39.4% he had last year. He’s also already hit six home runs, almost halfway to last year’s tally of 13. His .304/.353/.565 batting line amounts to an incredible 149 wRC+.
His .328 batting average on balls in play is above this year’s .298 league average, which could perhaps point to some luck-based regression. But it stands to reason that he would have an above-average BABIP since his elite speed allows him to beat out more grounders than other hitters. His new approach also seems to helping him in terms of batted ball metrics so far. His 44.7% hard hit rate is almost 12 points above last year’s 32.9% rate. His 86.9 mph average exit velocity from last year is now 90.1 mph in 2023.
This is all still a sample size of 105 plate appearances in 29 games and it’s probably best not to suddenly decree that Mateo is one of the best hitters in the league. Baseball is a game of adjustments and opposing teams will take notice of his new approach at the plate and alter their plan of attack, which will leave Mateo responsible for reacting to that. Nonetheless, it’s still an incredibly encouraging development since Mateo showed last year that he could be a solid everyday contributor with poor offense. Even if he regresses and ultimately settles somewhere in between this year’s roaring start and last year’s showing, that still makes him a very valuable player.
It’s a great development for the O’s as well, though it may lead to some challenging decisions down the road. Many of the club’s notable prospects are potential future shortstops, including Joey Ortiz, Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday. Gunnar Henderson was once seen as the club’s shortstop of the future but has largely been bumped to third base by Mateo’s breakout. It seems likely that, at some point, there will be some kind of infield logjam that needs clearing out.
But that’s the kind of problem that teams dream about, especially coming out of a rebuild. Some of these players could be included in trades that fortify a weaker part of the club’s roster, such as their starting rotation. Mateo already received some trade interest and has likely only increased his value in that market with his hot start this year. Since he’s been in the big leagues since the start of 2020, he came into this season with exactly three years of service time, putting him on track for free agency after 2025. He qualified for arbitration for the first time this past winter, agreeing with the club on a $2MM salary, and will be able to get further raises in the next two winters.
Despite all of those twists and turns with the Yankees, A’s, Padres and now Orioles, Mateo is still just 27 years old, turning 28 next month, meaning he’s set to hit the open market just a few months after his 30th birthday. There would surely be plenty of interest if the O’s market the next two and a half years of a shortstop with a high floor who is seemingly pushing his ceiling up. But the club is right in the mix of the playoff race, currently 22-12 in the early going, seeming more like a legitimate contender as the days go by. If they can keep that up through July, it would make more sense to keep Mateo while he’s thriving and perhaps consider including one of their prospects in a trade instead. It remains to be seen how it will play out, but for now, it seems possible that both Mateo and the O’s are benefitting from a breakout that was a dream a decade ago and seemed dead until very recently.
Fantasy Baseball managers thank Mateo for his breakout!
Jorge Mateo (who everyone want to trade) is pretty much a Byron Buxton clone.
They’re both built like NFL players – Buxton a WR and Mateo a running back. They have the 5 tools WHEN THEY HIT. Both K’ed far too much for years. But in time they started hitting the ball fair. And they hit with power. And they have speed. And they cover lots of ground on D. And they have incredible arms. Mateo is 2 years younger.
Most importantly, they’re very probably the 2 most exciting players in MLB to watch when they’re healthy and going well.
Those 2 turn games around – hitting, on D, on the bases.
Byron Buxton is always injured and was hitting .220 at one time. Mateo is better than that
Bloom’s BFF;
You made a good post one time.
I’m tired of your ankle biting.
Mute.
@Samuel – Comparing Buxton and Mateo is quite a stretch if you ask me. Buxton has much more in game power (and overall talent) than Mateo will ever have. If you want to compare them to NFL players, Buxton is OBJ (super talented but always hurt) while Mateo is Samjae Perine (good backup RB with flashes of greatness). That’s about it when it comes to comparing the two.
It’s okay. He can mute me. There’s literally no reason for it, I didn’t even attack him but it’s his choice. But yes, it’s apples and oranges, two completely different players.
If Gunnar would ever start to freaking make contact and get some hits, you have to move Mateo ASAP.
With the rest of the infield cavalry mentioned coming (plus Norby, perhaps Prieto too), you take the trade value he provides now. His value will never be higher.
This is what Os fans have been waiting for. It’s time for Elias to shift gears fully into win now mode.
At this point Gunner is overmatched as a SS at the ML level – and no where near Mateo’s level. He’s young and maybe he’ll grow into it in time. Brooks has said he thinks Gunner’s future is 3B. He should know.
With the way Gunner’s been playing it’s getting to a point where a trip back to AAA is possible. But the O’s FO, manager and coaches are pretty unique in how they go about developing players – showing a lot of patience with players they believe in. So we’ll see.
Jackson Holliday is obviously the O’s SS of the future.
Overmatched??? Watch the games and look at the stats. Pitchers don’t give him anything to hit and he is walking like Barry bonds. That will die down and he will get some pitches in the zone to hit.
To others, you don’t trade Ortiz as he is matteo on d with a better bat. Westbury is possibly better than Frazier and fills that hole next year.
“Overmatched??? Watch the games and look at the stats. Pitchers don’t give him anything to hit and he is walking like Barry bonds. That will die down and he will get some pitches in the zone to hit.
Did you really say he is walking like Barry Bonds with a straight face? I’m not sure how you get someone with 22 BB and 35 K as walking like Bonds. I guess that means Volpe to is walking like Bonds with his 18 BB and 39K. As of now he is overmatched and his .176 average in 91 abs even says so.
paosfan;
He’s overmatched as a SS. His footwork, being at a place at the right time on a play that costs the O’s out that should have been made – the best that can be said is that he’s adjusting to the speed of ML play.
SS is a defensive position. If your SS cannot make plays – which stats don’t calculate – your team can’t win. Period. See Tim Anderson with the White Sox.
Not sure what team you’ve been watching this season, but Henderson has been very good at SS. His arm is strong and accurate, he made a bare hand pickup and throw the other day that was Gold Glove caliber. His problem is Mateo. Jorge’s great start has prevented Gunnar from getting needed reps. The manager also sits him against LHPs. As Sean Casey said on MLB.net a few days ago, to learn to hit lefties, the lefty hitter needs to play against them. Urias is a nice player, but Henderson is the future.
Darragh. Great article.Thank you.
And Samuel. Hey there. Mateo, to me, is the SS of the present in Birdland. As far as 2/3 years out. I’m with ya. Holliday will be there. Him and Bencosme up the middle in 26?. Only question. Which one plays SS and which one plays 2b.
Oh, and I’m still on the trade Mountcastle and get Gunnar a 1st baseman’s glove line of thinking as well. Cheers!
BStrowman7;
Please.
You – and every other O’s fan on here – seem to be unhappy with the people that are playing, and always want someone else to come in….notably minor leaguers that haven’t shown they can play in the major leagues. Meanwhile the team lost to the MLB leading Rays to drop their record to 22-13.
Even Braves manager Brian Snitker commented after the game Sunday that the O’s were for real.
Why not quit positing who to get rid of and who to overpay to come in that’s a worse player, and watch what Elias and his FO, manager and coaching staff do? All offseason I read that they had no set-up guy behind Bautista. Then Cano showed up….the best GD set-up guy in MLB today.
And please tell us what wrong with Mountcastle. The man’s 26 years-old, under control, 13th in MLB in HR’s and 11th in RBI.
Sorry, but you’re just going to have to accept winning while players are being brought along at the ML level.
And weren’t you on here this winter writing that the O’s should have given Rodan the contract the Yankees did – which would have been around 30% of the O’s budget. And Rodan is on the IL for who knows how long, and will be paid for 5 years.
@Samuel. Because of everything you said about Mountcastle is why you’d move him. IMO, he’s the only player on the roster the Os could get a top of the line pitcher in return. Yes? No? Maybe?
C Yards Jeff;
Something for you to think about…..
Cleveland is not hitting and their season is headed down the drain.
They have far too many LH hitters, and their 2 top position prospects bat LH. Opposing teams have now started using LH pitchers against them as often as possible; not just starters but in relief at critical points in a game. Cleveland is last in the AL in runs scored (Baltimore is 5th). I’ve written for years here about Cleveland stacking their line-up with too many LH batters
MLB is a game of balance.
People here seem to want to trade every position player other than Rushman, Henderson and Mullins. Specifically they don’t like Santander, Hays, Mateo and Mountcastle. OK…..
Santander and Rushman are both switch hitters that do much better LH than RH. You take the RH hitters out of the line-up and replace them with more LH hitters and Baltimore will be scoring runs like Cleveland is this year. This is not rotisserie league. Opposing teams use strategies.
Baltimore’s top position prospects are primarily LH hitters. Westburg and Ortiz are RH hitters, but I wouldn’t bet big bucks on them hitting any better than Urias or Mateo at the ML level – and allow them a few years to adjust to ML ball.
I have to pull off of commenting on the O’s very often anymore. I believe they’re running the best rebuild in MLB today. On par with what the Astros, Braves, and Rays did over the past 10 years to be sustainable contenders for years (unlike the Cubs that won a WS and shortly after fizzled out). Like the Rays the O’s play in a small market. They’re won’t have the revenue to sign a big name FA pitcher like Wheeler to a multi-year contract anymore then the Rays could. They have to keep a steady stream of young players coming up from the minors and have their coaching staff get the most out of them.
Re: Mountcastle
Statcast says Mountcastle is Elite.
He is 26 year old, with 3 years of control.
He hit although out the minor leagues.
You don’t trade the MLB talent that got you too a contending team status…unless you wanna perpetually rebuild.
BStrowman:
Statcast has Mountcastle as a bit better than Average. Statcast says Mountcastle is Elite.
Which is exactly why he was drafted in the first place, and what he did ALL throughout the Minor leagues.
Ryan is what top prospects turn into. No Westy or Cowser is going to provide Mountcastle’s bat when they arrive.
3 years of control left, 26 yo, top prospect status, and Elite hitter…The Orioles arent the A’s…they don’t trade controllable stars when the bill comes due.
Guys, odd man out here. And your points are well taken.
That said; do the Birds need a top of the line SP? I think so. To get him, IMO, trading potential talent ain’t gonna cut it. But moving proven talent will. Moving Mountcastle, again IMO, is the one proven talent that can make it happen … and for all the reasons you guys have stated.
Good pitching trumps good hitting everytime. Case in point; Sunday in Atlanta and yesterday at OPACY.
And I’m serious about moving Gunnar to 1st base. Elite player. Leave him in the line up regardless of which arm the pitcher is pitching with. And with so much defensive infield talent knocking on the door, this frees up space to keep one of them around. Ortiz? Prieto? Norby(SP?)? Holliday? Benscome? Others?
Cheers!
A nice click bait title by not mentioning the player’s name.
Well, he’s started at SS for 27 of Baltimore’s 29 games… and the pic was a decent clue.
So you’re basing the value of his identity upon his skin colour?
Huh? That might be the most dense “logic” I’ve ever read. You didn’t mention Mateo’s name either, is something wrong with your values?
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/05/the-as-may-have-found-a…
Let me guess, this article from yesterday is RaC¡sT too? What garbage are you smoking, Nots? At least we can count on you to like your own comments to go with your illogical ramblings. Peace homie
The first two words of the sentence are “Jorge Mateo”. Nuff said.
Every person who clicked on the article that frequents this site new it was Mateo. Common sense
B-More is in the come up. Watch out now-Beatnuts
What the hell are now-Beatnuts?
Google it big dog
That’s now-Bigdog to you.
Off the books – featuring Big Punisher, Cuban Link
I expect at least a little regression in the batting average department and the OBP as well. But who knows? Maybe his improvement is a real indicator of what he can be. Even if he ends up hitting .270 with a .320 OBP, he’ll still have 30+ steals and good defense. A ton of teams would love that at the ss position. He’s definitely allowed my O’s to let Gunnar work through some contact issues, despite the solid OBP. Its a good problem to have, O’s playing well enough by the trade deadline to keep him, or if their starting pitching doesn’t become more consistently adequate and they fall back he looks extremely valuable.
He certainly is making strides in that photo
Mateo will peak at 27/28 but he’s still due to fall off, way off from his current pace.
Another happy reminder of the Sonny Gray trade. MLBTR, have you no sympathy?
Does Orioles shortstop have a name? MLBTR writer writes stuff
Gunnar is 21. He will be fine.
The O’s are walking a delicate tightrope, obviously, but they are in a VERY enviable position.
The MLB Team is winning.
The AAA team is LOADED.
There are All Stars behind them in the lower minors.
The Player Development and Talent Evaluation is all of a sudden TOP NOTCH.
The Orioles can afford to be patient here.
It is an incredible turn-around of a franchise.
It’s great that mateo was making strides but I don’t like that the Os are staching all those older prospects like ortiz,westburg or kjerstad in AAA. Those 3 are turning 25 this year, Elias needs to make a decision soon before they lose value, teams don’t love 25 year old prospects in AAA.
The Os desperately need pitching especially in the minors and should make a trade or two but the decision is a tough one because Elias has to decide whether mateo is real or whether he should sell high on him and push westburg and ortiz to the majors.
I would say if you get a good deal then trade mateo but we don’t know whether other teams buy the improvement and pay a big price for mateo or whether they see him as a flash in the pan.
That’s a really tough decision for Elias who will be the best going forward and who will get the best return in a trade?
Baltimore has wayyyy to many middle infielders (this is including their farm system with guys that are ready to play in MLB right now)
Adam Frazier
Jorge Mateo
Gunnar Henderson
Ramon Urias
Jordan Westburg
Joey Ortiz
Connor Norby
I’m not gonna put Holliday or Mayo on the list right now.
Jordan Westburg is absolutely tearing the ball up in AAA so I can’t imagine him not being called up in the very near future.
I like Urias, and Frazier is pretty decent, but I think one of those guys are the Odd man out. If they call up Westburg and trade either Frazier or Urias (or maybe both) for some pitching, I think that could be a good move. Westburg is 24 years old and proved in A ball that he’s ready to play in the Majors
Gunnar is playing terrible right now, but let him continue to play and get experience in the Majors..
Gunnar 3B – Mateo SS – Westburg 2B – maybe keep Frazier as a backup and trade Urias for some kind of pitching