The Red Sox plan to select the contract of infielder Pablo Reyes, reports Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). Corner infielder Bobby Dalbec will be optioned to Triple-A Worcester in a corresponding active roster move, reports Christopher Smith of MassLive. Boston already had an opening on the 40-man roster after losing Zack Littell on waivers.
Reyes has played the 2023 campaign in the A’s system. The utilityman signed a minor league contract with Oakland and started the year with their top affiliate in Las Vegas. The Red Sox acquired him for cash this morning. It’s unclear whether Reyes’ deal with the A’s contained an upward mobility clause that required them to make him available if another team offered an immediate roster spot or whether Oakland made the deal out of courtesy. In either case, the 29-year-old returns to the majors for what’ll be a fifth season in six years.
A native of the Dominican Republic, Reyes began his career in the Pirates’ system. He reached the majors with Pittsburgh in 2018 and tallied a personal-high 157 plate appearances the following season. He was suspended for the entire 2020 campaign after failing a performance-enhancing drug test and Pittsburgh cut him loose at the end of that year. Reyes signed a minor league deal with the Brewers and cracked the MLB roster early in 2021. He’d appear in 59 games over the next two seasons.
Between Pittsburgh and Milwaukee, the right-handed hitting Reyes has a .238/.307/.361 batting line over 323 big league plate appearances. He owns a solid .273/.342/.440 slash in just under 1300 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level. That includes a .257/.385/.351 start over 21 games for the Aviators in 2023. He’s long shown solid plate discipline and contact skills without much power.
Reyes is out of minor league option years. Boston will have to keep him on the MLB roster or make him available to other teams via waivers. He brings a fair bit of flexibility to Alex Cora’s bench. He’s logged ample minor league work at both middle infield positions, third base and in left and center field. The bulk of his time — just over 3000 innings — has been spent at the keystone. He’ll add some middle infield depth behind the current starting duo of Enmanuel Valdez and Enrique Hernández.
As for Dalbec, he heads back to Triple-A after a brief recall from the minors. He’s appeared in just seven MLB games this year after topping 100 contests in each of the preceding two seasons. The right-handed hitter owns a solid .238/.374/.475 line over 23 games with Worcester but he’s striking out almost 40% of the time at the Triple-A level.
“He is just minor league depth, no big deal”. Hahaha!
FPG – Minor league depth? Isn’t that redundant? hahaha
Hey, what’s one more crap player that should never make the majors but Cora will find a way to bring him up, play him a few games and then have Bloom DFA the guy. It’s the never ending revolving door.
I know it’s not a lot of money but each signing costs money whether it’s against the MLB team or a minor league team. Is this guy better than the guy who gets cut from the minor league team to make room for him?
After over 100 pick-ups like this one I have two issues:
1 – Based on track record in 3 years these investments have been throwing away money. Whether it’s a lot or a little, why do it?
2 – If we compare the player added to the player dropped – Did we make the organization stronger or did we simply suffle a deck of equal cards? Or worst case scenario, we took losses on the acquisitions when evaluated in whole.
In the end, it’s a demoralizing strategy for the players and the organization. Who likes to be hired and fired in a 90 day window? How many people have to be on staff to handle all the paperwork related to each temp that comes in the revolving door and isn’t there more productive use for all those paper pushers in the organization? No matter how you cut it, it always looks like a waste or resources.
What are you guys talking about? bloom is a genius and makes all the very best moves. Moves that people will talk about for generations. No, really, they will. MRSGA!
The Red Sox announced that they’ve claimed infielder Christian Arroyo off waivers from the Indians, who’d designated him for assignment last week. Boston’s 40-man roster and 60-man player pool are now full.
Still just 25 years of age, Arroyo was a 2013 first-round pick by the Giants who is now joining his fourth big league club. San Francisco initially traded him to Tampa Bay — when current chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was a senior VP of baseball ops with the Rays — in the Evan Longoria swap. Arroyo went to Cleveland alongside righty Hunter Wood in a 2019 deadline deal.
The Red Sox announced this afternoon that they’ve claimed righty John Schreiber off waivers from the Tigers and placed left-hander Chris Sale on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot. The Sale move shouldn’t come as a shock, given that he underwent Tommy John surgery on March 30 last year. It was reported last month that his rehab was expected to come near the back end of the typical 12-15 month recovery time. He’ll likely be an option for the Sox sometime early this summer.
rhs – I appreciate what you’re trying to say, but honestly I don’t see the correlations here.
Arroyo was 25 at the time and is a former first round pick who could never stay healthy. He was worth the injury risk, just like Whitlock.
Schreiber was 26 at the time and pitched extremely well in the minors, but the Tigers let him pitch a grand total of 28 innings over his two years in the majors and gave up on him way too soon without giving him much of a shot.
Pablo will be 30 the day after Labor Day, and with 3 different franchises going back to 2018 he’s put up just a .667 OPS and oh yeah he was on PED’s when he put up his better numbers. Like many from the DR he didn’t believe in himself enough to stay clean, so why should we believe in him?
I have no complaints about the Pablo signing as this is the sort of thing you need to do when you have no depth in the organization, but it’s like spending a couple bucks on Powerball … sure it could turn into a big win, but most likely in the near future the ticket will be worthless.
And Reyes has a career OPS over .800 against left handed pitching, which is when he’s going to play for Boston essentially platooning with Valdez. Seems like that makes sense for what the team needs at the moment.
king – Reyes is clearly better against lefty pitchers but he’s only had 69 games against them at the MLB level since he first started in 2012 after signing a contract as an International Player from the DR. He spent most the last 11 years in the minors so that throws up a red flag. His 3263 plate appearances in the minors were solid but they weren’t against MLB pitching. He’s what most call a journeyman minor league player so after 11 years the concept of upside has come and gone.
So you selected the righty/lefty numbers to argue for him to be part of a platoon system. It makes sense BUT there are other ways to slice his splits. Are you aware that he hits .191 in the first half of the season and .265 in the second half? He’s only hit over .200 in the months of May and October so we need to play him now before May ends!! If the game is late and close he only hits .222 and with 2 outs and a RISP he hits .220.
See how getting into the low level details of a player can create conflicting results? Yes, he’s better against lefties but only if it’s the second half of the season and it’s not late in the game or with RISP.
More trivia about Pablo Reyes – He only hits above .25o against 4 of the 29 teams in baseball. The Cubs, KC, SD and STL
So which data makes sense to play a player? Your data that says he’s better against lefties or the data I presented which suggests you should never play a guy with such little skill?
The team is desperate and they are already playing guys like Wong, McGuire, Hernandez and Arroyo so what’s one more? I think he fits in.
Good call.
KD17 –
How does future “Hofer of Vazquez” live for 10 million in a year now?
I understand that you dislike the players of that Bloom led, but you can’t constantly talk about a player (Wong) that he it bad not supporting by arguments.
He didn’t really call him a future hof did he?
Bogie – If you believe Wong is good I’m ok with that. I simply don’t see it the same way. I consider several things in assessing Wong:
1 – How was he acquired?
Answer – In a very bad deal where Freidman pulled the wool over Bloom’s eyes and Bloom accepted much less than he deserved in the trade.
2 – Why could Boston have gotten more?
Answer – Wong was arguable the 6th or 7th catcher in the LAD depth chart. At the time of the deal, Wong’s history was 3 mediocre years at Texas where Cora met him along with Hamilton while bench coach at Houston. As a ROK in 2017 he played 1 game for the Dodgers got NO HITS and got promoted to A ball. He played 27 games at A ball and hit .278 with a walk rate of .058 and an Isolate Power of .217 with 1 for 2 at SBs. In 2018 at age 22 he had a good season at Hi-A.. In 2019 before the trade he had a solid year at Hi-A and AA but wasn’t getting promoted because of all the catchers in the organization that were better than him. In 2020 he didn’t play due to COVID and in 2021 Boston tried to showcase him by moving him to AAA. (Bloom trying to sell people on the haul he made for Mookie and Price! hahaha). His AAA experience didn’t go well and he hit .256 at age 25. He got promoted for 14 plate appearances and did well. In 2022 he was a disaster hitting .188 at the MLB level and .288 at AAA at age 26. Now he is hitting .238 as a 27 year old catcher at the MLB level. To me, that history screams journeyman back-up catcher.
3 – Who COULD Bloom have gotten because LAD really wanted Mookie badly?
LAD had the following catchers:
Russel Martin started on the MLB team
Austin Barnes was his back-up so here are the choices remaining:
1 – Will Smith turned out pretty well. Would have made the Mookie deal a much more fair deal
2 – Keibert Ruiz traded to WAS a year later would have been much better than Wong
3 – Jose Lobaton was ahead of Wong in the depth chart but was a free agent who could have been offered in the trade if he agreed to sign with Boston. Instead, as a FA he signed with the Cubs
4 – Diego Cartaya is now the LAD top prospect. He’s the guy that should have been included in the deal instead of Wong.
5 – I tried to track down other Catchers at the time but I couldn’t find a source for the data now. In 2020, I checked their depth chart and there were two others. One ahead of Wong and one behind Wong.
As far as Vazquez goes he’s not a HOFer BUT he was a top 10 catcher during his time in Boston plus he loved being a Red Sox player. He started in ROK ball in 2008 at age 17. He was yet another home grown player that Bloom trashed. His minor league numbers exceed those of Wong. In the majors, starting in 2016 he put up a .262 average, a weak walk rate of only .049 and an isolated power of .127 so his offensive contribution was .438. That number is above both McGuire and Kiki.
In 2023 he’s off to a slow start but we don’t judge on small sample sizes we wait and see how the season goes otherwise we would be bad mouthing guys like Alex Bregman because he’s off to a slow start yet remains a top 3B in baseball. Vazquez is now 32 and Dombrowski set up his contract to evaluate him after the 2022 season. As much as I like Vazquez, I believe DD would have sought out a younger catcher for his next run at multiple rings.
So, Vazquez is not a HOFer but he’s clearly better than Wong and Bloom failed in properly DISPOSING of Mookie because he didn’t maximize value. If the deal was for May and Cartaya then it would be hard to bad mouth the deal but when you consider Verdugo has been league average (yeah he’s off to a good start but we’ve seen that before), Downs was a bust and Wong is a journeyman back-up catcher, that’s not much for one year of a HOFer like Mookie. The deal also gave LAD an inside track on extending him so they won the deal hands down. It may be one of the most lopsided in history. Time will tell. Mookie has maintained his 134 OPS+ in LA, he’s won 2 gold gloves and two silver sluggers in 3 years in LA and he has finished 2nd and 5th in the MVP vote during the 3 years in LA.
Freidman didn’t just pants Bloom with the Mookie deal, he took photos and posted them on the internet for everyone to see!!! hahahaha How embarrassing to give up a HOFer for NOTHING!!! OUCH!!!
That trade alone should have sent Bloom packing and save Red Sox fans 3 years of grief.
KD – Excellent analysis as always!!
I was just wondering …
You know how Theo included a clause in Lackey’s contract that allowed a $500K club option to kick in if he needed to have TJS during the life of the contract.
And you know how Dombrowski included a clause in JDM’s contract that would have substantially reduced the amount of his salary if he spent a certain number of days on the DL.
Why didn’t Bloom think to include such a clause for Story’s existing injury? It’s ridiculous Bloom never thought to put in a CYA clause.
FPG – Nice. The Story deal should have been thought out more clearly. I thought the deal would finally move Devers to DH but it didn’t so to me it’s a bust. It solved no problems, it cost a lot of money and Boston didn’t need Story as much as so many other things.
Bloom is really bad at identifying problem areas and fixing them. Schwarber was a nice add if we needed a DH but we didn’t. Renfroe was a great solution to a problem they had after giving up Mookie and Benny but he didn’t keep him. So many mistakes and so few smart moves. That will be Bloom epithet!!
KD – Excellent post as always!
Last night I had a dream …. I dreamed Bloom had extended Eovaldi and ERod and not been cheap with their offer to Eflin and this was their current starting rotation:
Sale
Paxton
Eflin 2.91 ERA 1.029 WHIP
ERod 1.57 ERA 0.794 WHIP
Nate 2.70 ERA 0.994 WHIP
Sox would be a first place team with that rotation! Ahhh … a man can dream, right?
FPG – Love the dream except E-Rod. He’s a poser. His numbers will be dramatically worse by end of season. Think of this as his Barnes’ first half. He’s a 4.00 ERA guy with a 1.33 WHIP. Too many years of hot and cold streaks to EVER believe a hot streak will continue.
I like Eflin. Don’t like Paxton. Love Sale. Hate E-Rod. Love Nate.
For me Houck and Bello are better than Paxton and E-Rod.
Good dream. Coulda, woulda and shoulda!!!
This division is going to have a shake up in the next month. I don’t believe TB will be leading a month from now. I’m not sure whether it will be TOR, BAL or NYY but I think the four teams will be clustered about five games ahead of Boston. That’s not what I’m hoping for, that’s what I think based on the schedule. NY looks ready for a run. TB lost a stud in Springs and a stud in Rasmussen. Glasnow will eventually replace one of them but it may take a month of starts to see the old Glasnow. McClanahan is legit. Eflin is very solld, Chirinos needs to build up his endurance and my man Taj Bradley is struggling in the minors right now. They are vulnerable until Glasnow returns to form and Chirinos is completely ramped up.
Tonight’s pounding by STL is an example of why Kluber isn’t cutting it, why hot streaks can turn into cold streaks, why Yoshida has been good but has he been clutch enough to hit at the top of the order, why Cora is a bad manager using Brasier and Bernadino and saying lets rest the pen since this 4-1 games is out of hand.
Kluber has had one good start against BAL where the team won, one good start against PIT where the team lost and 6 bad starts including today. Heck if Dalbec was a pitcher he would have been sent to AAA at least two bad starts ago!!! haha Kluber’s ERA is 2 points higher and his whip is 0.2 higher than 2022 which is his new norm and it’s a bad norm.
If Paxton breaks down. The young guns will need to step up to stay competitive. I like Sale, Houck, Paxton, Bello and Pivetta. It’s not great but it’s competitive. Let Kluber long relieve until he proves he can maintain an ERA under 4.00. The bullpen has had a couple of hiccups but I think they will be fine. They have quality pitchers in the bullpen. If only the offense had as many quality players as it’s pitching staff!!!
Nolan just homered again. Maybe we should have traded Devers to Colorado and took the money hit to get Nolan. He would have helped the dugout because he’s a bulldog like Peddy was. Cora would have hated him because he’s the exact opposite of Cora. He works hard, plays fair and has talent. Now that Devers is so over paid, it’s almost the same money to have Nolan. Think about how wrong that is!!!
KD17 –
As far as Vazquez goes he’s not a HOFer BUT he was a top 10 catcher during his time in Boston plus he loved being a Red Sox player. He started in ROK ball in 2008 at age 17. He was yet another home grown player that Bloom trashed. His minor league numbers exceed those of Wong.
__________________________________________________________________
C.Wong – ( career in Minor League numbers )
372G; 1426AB, 393H, 83Double, 9Triple, 71HR, 32SB, 10CS, .276AVG, .833OPS! 163XBH.
C.Vazquez – ( career in Minor League numbers )
546G, 1941AB, 516H, 112Double, 4Triple, 40HR, 15SB, 10CS, .266AVG, .733AVG, 156XBH.
What place do minor league numbers of Vazquez exceed minor league numbers of Wong?
So, Vazquez is not a HOFer but he’s clearly better than Wong and Bloom failed in properly DISPOSING of Mookie because he didn’t maximize value
________________________________________________________________
C.Wong – 2023 $ 0.72mil.AAV
30G; 87AB, 20H, 6Double, 4HR, 10XBH, .230Avg, .716Ops, +90Ops
+1.1WAR, +1.1dWAR, +6Rdrs, .984 Fld, 4E, 18A, 13SB/8CS – 38%CS, 226.0 In.
C.Vazquez – 2023 $10mil. AAV
29G; 94AB, 23H, 3Double, 0HR! 3XBH, .245Avg, 596Ops, +69Ops
+0.1WAR, +0.2dWAR, 0Rdrs, 983 Fld, 5E, 8A, 16SB/4CS – 20%CS, 246.0 In.
What numbers 2023 of Vazquez better than numbers of Wong?
KD17 –
Now he ( Wong ) is hitting .238 as a 27 year old catcher at the MLB level. To me, that history screams journeyman back-up catcher.
In 2023 he’s ( Vazquez ) off to a slow start but we don’t judge on small sample sizes we wait and see how the season goes otherwise we would be bad mouthing guys like Alex Bregman because he’s off to a slow start yet remains a top 3B in baseball.
________________________________________________________________
You suggest not to judge about Vazquez for 2023 with a small sample size.
But in the same time you come forward an executioner above Wong with a yet less sample size what at Vazquez.
You very amusing.
Fever Pitch Guy –
If already Bloom dreams that for you obviously problems of psychological character.
Lol!
RemoveManagerWinsFromTheRecordBooks –
This a was sarcasm.
.733 Ops Vazquez
Vazquez is not a HOFer but he’s clearly better than Wong
=======================
I fail to see the logic. Wong is outplaying him by a wide margin, costs $9M less, is about 6 years younger, and we have 5 years of control.
I seriously doubt a single GM would trade Wong for Vazquez.
KD – Awesome post! I think at this point Bloom has no choice because he’s backed himself into a corner after many poor decisions led to a black hole at middle infield, similar to what he did last year with the horrific bullpen he put together.
I mean Bloom had TWO chances during the past few months to re-acquire a guy who performed fantastically for him a year and a half ago, and yet Bloom refused to sign Iggy. It’s pure stupidity.
4 injuries led to a crappy backup infielder for a few weeks. But sure, he really screwed the pooch on this one. Also, doesnt it take 2 people to “sign” a contract, or did I just missed a labor agreement that requires players to play the Red Sox say.
Anthony Franco – I have a question about your striking out comment.
In your opinion, is it better for a hitter to strike out with 1 out and a runner on first base rather than ground out?
Obviously, a fly out is the best type of out in this situation since it’s less likely to create a double play yet it could create an error by the opponent but. I feel you over-emphasized strike outs which is now a common mistake among metrics people. Generalizations don’t fit the myriad of variable situations during any one at bat so there are times when a K is better than the alternatives, there are times when a GO is better than the alternatives and there are times when a FO is better than the alternatives. Suggesting Ks are significant redirects the evaluation of performance away from OBP and towards concepts that are promoted by non baseball people.
Power hitters often strike out more than non power hitters so why is it so relevant to point out Ks but not the lack of extra base hits by someone who grounds out a lot or flys out a lot? Fangraphs has ruined baseball logic.
There should always be a place on the roster for the power hitter who strikes out a lot compared to the players with comparable averages that don’t strike out a lot and don’t hit home runs or extra base hits.
Break down the components of hitting and you have:
AVERAGE – .238 for Dalbec in AAA
Walk Rate – (OBP minus AVERAGE) – .136
Isolated Power – (SLG minus AVERAGE) – .237
Which when totalled leads to OPS of .849
OPS is biased since it’s components are (BA+Walk Rate) + (BA+Isolated Power)
There are three components of hitting and OPS is designed to count AVG twice so high average players with lower ISO and Walk Rates are valued more than comparable players with a lower average and higher walk rate and ISO.
So Dalbec in AAA has a hitting contribution of BA+ISO+walk rate of .611 which is good.
After 37 games here are the player’s hitting contributions :(BA+Walk Rate + ISO)
Jarren Duran – .654
Rafael Devers – .590
Masataka Yoshida – .589
Alex Verdugo – .567
Connor Wong – .521
Tristan Casas – .507
Justin Turner – .491
Reese McGuire – .416
Kiki Hernandez – .407
So for perspective… the .611 in AAA for Dalbec is higher than Devers number in the majors. That information should have the Red Sox hitting coaches working on making Dalbec effective at the MLB level since he has the potential.
Everyone would expect Devers to be the highest but he’s off to a slow start.
Duran normally would be closer to .500 than .654 so that’s where a regression could happen as the season progresses.
Yoshida and Verdugo are playing well and their hitting contribution shows it.
Wong is about .100 points higher than expected. Casas is surprisingly high considering his BA but he walks and contributes good total bases.
FYI…. JD Martinez’ contribution so far in LA is .576, Mookie’s is .593 in LA and Bogey’s is .529 in SD. So for all the folks suggesting the team is better off this year, the data says you are wrong. We lost more than we gained at DH and SS but Yoshida has off-set some of that loss.
Duvall only played 8 games but his numbers were insane!! His career contribution is .531 but during the 8 games it was an astonishing 1.089!!! Duvall has had a productive career despite the low averages and strikeouts (Dalbec-like). By comparison, Turner’s career contribution is .541 and JD’s is at .584.
Thus, from a quality of career stand point JD has had the most productive of the three, then Justin Turner then Adam Duvall. Could Dalbec put together a career like Duvall’s? ABSOLUTELY. That’s why you don’t DFA a guy like Dalbec.
Anthony – if you have time please share your thoughts on why you see Dalbec’s K rate as more relevant than his OBP.. Thank you.
This comment may be longer than the original post
If that comment was a woman , if would indeed be considered zaftig.
paleobros – Sorry I missed the baseball portion of your comment. Trolling is a bad way to behave on a website like this one. Talk baseball or keep quiet. Pretend it’s an adult discussion where contributing intelligent comments matter.
I mean, the most obvious generalization here is that you’re comparing the AAA numbers of one player to a list of several players’ MLB numbers. That’s not the same thing. This is probably the only time I’ve ever seen someone state Dalbec has better numbers than Devers.
Do you have any examples of players with a 40% K rate in AAA who have developed into major league regulars?
Rhs – And developed at age 28, which Bobby will be next month. But Bloom is infatuated with power, so Bobby will continue to have more chances.
rhswanzey – You are right and I thought I made it clear that AAA performance is nothing more than an upside potential for a player hoping to make the majors. That final step of mastering MLB pitching vs AAA pitching is a critical step that Dalbec has only mastered for 2 half seasons.
The point is you don’t DFA a guy who has proven he can perform at an acceptable level in the majors but needs work to get back to that level of performance. You DFA guys without MLB potential. That’s all.
If a guy has an OBP of .374 but strikes out 40% of the time is he more valuable than a guy with a .330 OBP who never strikes out?
If you think no then you have had your perspective corrupted by statcast or fangraphs. The answer is ALWAYS the .374 OBP guy. That’s Dalbec’s OBP at AAA. That’s why I am arguing to keep him and work with him to see if the coaching staff can get him to put up a comparable OBP in the majors.
Bloom has filled the team and minors with guys that don’t have upside potential like Dalbec. The organization doesn’t need guys like that. They should focus on those who do have upside potential and help them realize it. If Dalbec never becomes a regular because he can’t maintain a .350 OBP I am fine with keeping him in the minors or as a bench player but to rule him out because his K% is too high defies baseball logic, especially considering what he’s done in 2 half seasons in the MLB. The potential is there so don’t send him through the revolving door like the retreads Bloom acquires, let him stay around and work with him to realize his potential.
None of my comments make me a fan of Dalbec, they make me a fan of finding people with talent and developing it. Guys like Wong, McGuire, Arroyo and Hernandez lack talent yet get opportunities beyond what their talent suggests. Level the playing field by using talent to decide who has upside. Today Boston’s decision making is purely political otherwise a lifetime .239 hitter wouldn’t be starting daily. Fix the system, that’s what I am hoping for with a new GM and Manager.
So your 40% K rate question is a bit misguided. It needs to start with a stat that measures a players contribution not how they fail. If you ask me to name players with .350 OBPs that struck out over 25% of the time, I’d ask you why does it matter how many times they struck out. That’s the same point with Dalbec. He’s not putting up a .350 OBP in the majors but he is at AAA so the question becomes how can coaches help him match his AAA performance in the majors.
Dalbec outperformed Devers several different ways. During their first 500 at bats, Dalbec was the better hitter at the MLB level. Devers made HUGE adjustments over the winter between 2018 and 2019 and those adjustments separated the two. Devers soared in 2019 and Dalbec didn’t improve significantly after those initial 500 at bats.
Why that happened can probably best be explained based on organizational support. Devers was declared the future of the Red Sox at age 16 and Dalbec was next to meaningless to the Red Sox organization. Devers has been supported beyond his skills since he arrived in Boston and Dalbec has been treated like a red headed step child. Players differentiate themselves but starting with a skill level and then having a strong support system to carry them through the tough times. So much of the future of a player is decided by how the organization sees them.
Very few guys are like Mookie Betts, another Red Headed Step Child to the Boston organization. He was ranked behind Swihart because the Red Sox organization pegged Swihart as a future star, just like they did with Casas, Devers and several others. Mookie was a Dalbec type guy who had to PROVE he was a star without the support of the organization. He did that and when it came down to applauding him for all he accomplished, they shipped him out of town conclusively proving he was still one of the Red Headed Step Children of the organization.
Dalbec has no future with Boston but he should. Kiki has no business being in the majors but he gets to start daily. Neither of these decisions are based on skill, it’s all politics. IF you look at the standings and see Boston not at the top, it’s because the team is run by political business men and not knowledgeable baseball people. That needs to change!!
KD – To make up for my past criticisms, I will give Dalbec a compliment now.
He has a higher BA than the current first baseman!!!
FPG – I like to tease you about blasting Dalbec all the time. Look both young guys at 1B have potential that hasn’t been realized. I find it frustrating that an organization will give up on one and focus on the other. I say focus on both and if you end up with two great power hitters, you are better off than if you only had one.
I sure wish people would go to a new stat that only reflects AVG+Walk Rate+ Isolated Power. To me it’s so much more meaningful than counting AVG twice and calling it OPS. OPS has been an AVG biased stat for 25 years or more and I have pointed it out for that long!!
It was eye opening to see the current teams hitting contribution (HC if we want to name it!!). It shows exactly who has been contributing and about how far above their norms certain guys are. Devers is having an off year by his standards but is still one of the most significant contributors to the overall production of the offense.
I’m happy for Duran and I’m excited to see Yoshida doing so much better than expected. I hope they can maintain their numbers for a full season.
This sure seems like an unpredictable season across the MLB. Maybe the warm weather will stabilize the fluctuations in the standings. I did not expect 5 teams to be over .500 in the AL East. Nor did I think 4 teams would be over .500 in the AL West. The wild card race should be a real adventure this year.
KD – Awesome post as always!
I agree with you on TC & BD, I think they are very very similar except each hits from the opposite side of the plate of course. Hopefully they can both figure it out, but then where would they play? I know what you’re gonna say … Dalbec at 3B. LOL!!
Before the season I don’t know if you saw it, but I posted about my optimism for the season if several things I thought could happen were to actually happen.
1) Yoshida hitting like he did in Japan (he has)
2) Sale returning to be at least a solid starting pitcher (sure looks it today)
3) Paxton returning to health and form (sure looked it last night)
4) Verdugo living up to his potential (he has)
I did have a few misses:
1) Kluber pitching like he did last year (hasn’t yet)
2) Casas having an ROY-type rookie season (not even close)
3) Whitlock staying healthy (obviously hasn’t)
4) Houck staying healthy (he has, but hasn’t returned to form yet)
I still think as of right now they are around a .500 team, but contending for a WC is definitely a possibility. I think they will have at least one big impact injury this season (not talking about Duval), because every team has had so many.
Five teams over .500 is mostly because there hasn’t been that much divisional play yet.
Sox are a .500 team against their division with a 7-7 record, remember they are playing 24 fewer divisional games this year. That means the Sox still have 38 games left against their division.
13 games against the Yankees – they are heating up, winning 7 of 10 including two straight against Tampa. When they get back Stanton, Rodon, Severino, etc they will be a force to deal with.
7 games against the Orioles – they have the 2nd-best record in MLB and their time is now, their young stars will continue to improve and they most definitely will be buyers at the trade deadline.
9 games against the Rays – best record in baseball and they will certainly be buyers at the trade deadline.
9 games against the Jays – If Manoah and Berrios and Springer turn it around, they will be dangerous again. Expect them to acquire a stud closer, maybe Chapman.
I think best case scenario, Sox go around 19-19 in those final 38 games.
That would mean they’d need to go 52-33 against non-divisional opponents It’s doable, but they will have a tough time against teams like the Rangers/Angels/Astros/Mariners/Dodgers and I hafta believe the Mets and Padres will be playing better.
Today’s game just finished, how embarrassing. They didn’t even have to face the Cardinals stud flamethrower closer. Will be interesting to see if the umpire’s timer was malfunctioning when Kenley got charged THREE clock violations. I still say I think Kenley is not right after overthrowing in his 400-save game.
This is just further proof they are a .500 team right now, losing 2 out of 2 at home against a 13-25 team. Wasted two good starts by Paxton and Sale. Kiki with yet another error at SS, he now leads the league in errors.
Fever Pitch Guy –
Friend, you can not be such salt.
Does Casas have 22 match series with a hit on a base and he worse what Dalbec?
Check the numbers of Casas for the last week, his bat begins to warm up.
It is very unpleasant to see as you with KD17 trolling of young players – Wong, Casas not supporting arguments, on my arguments about these players you are fellows meet
Fever Pitch Guy –
I already poured out one troll of Randy Red Sox, that told about bad defence of Wong.
He is afraid now to appear on these boards once again not to disgrace oneself.
KD 17 –
Red Sox have focus on Bobby already 4th season in Major League however on some reason Dalbec doesn’t have a desire to be concentrated on the hole in a bat.
FPG – Excellent analysis of the schedule.
For what it’s worth my model has them at 15-23 in their remaining 38 games in the division. but as of today if they beat STL they are 5 games ahead of the 74 win pace and if they lose they are 4 games ahead of the 74 win pace.
So either 78 or 79 wins through the middle of May. Better than expected and if they can gain 4 games every 2 months they can finish 12 games over the 74 win prediction with a 86-76 record. It will probably still be 5th place but much better than expected thanks to Sale, Duran and Yoshida playing better than expected.
Bogie – I don’t think Dalbec’s issue happens from a lack of desire. I think it’s bad coaching. Someone should be teaching him how to adjust to what pitchers are doing to him and that hasn’t happened. Clearly, Devers got that help early in his career so why not Dalbec? I guess he’s not worthy of what Devers got because he wasn’t proclaimed the future of the franchise.
Dalbec needs to move to an organization that wants him. It’s been good for Mookie, JD, Benny and even Chavis. Organizational support is critical to the development of prospects and Bloom has failed miserably with Dalbec. The same can be said for Duran but Duran has proven to be more like Mookie because he’s overcome the lack of support and has flourished just like Mookie did. Where is Swihart the guy the organization supported instead of Mookie? Probably selling used cars or insurance. Wherever ex player go these days after the glory years are over.
Bogie – I believe Casas needs to go down and work on his game, just like my man Duran did. That’s not trolling, that’s showing a desire for him to get better.
You want support? In August 2021 Dalbec batted .339/.431/.774 for an incredible 1.205 OPS
Did you think his bat was warming up then? Or did he make an adjustment in his swing that temporarily led to success, only for pitchers to make counter-adjustments against him?
I’ve said all along Casas is very similar to Dalbec, that means the little hot streaks will happen for Casas just like they did for Dalbec. But Casas is still batting .167/.316/.321 against RHSP which is a putrid .637 OPS – he will need to drastically improve against RHSP if he wants to be an everyday starter in MLB.
Also keep in mind this recent hot streak for Casas is against teams he had not played against. Opposing pitchers will make adjustments after facing a hitter for the first time, they always do.
KD – Thanks, I appreciate it!
I’m just about done with Kluber, he was brutal again tonight. I am okay with giving him one more start, but if he has another stinker then I say put him in the BP as I know he won’t be let go before July.
Joely is due back tomorrow, shame that Bernardino will be sent down right before the Sox go to his hometown. He has certainly been pitching better than Brasier, Bleier etc.
ESPN had Casas mic’d up, I really like his personality and I’m rooting hard for him. He is one unique cat.
KD17 –
Duran too wasn’t proclaimed by the face of deductible and he was so much criticized by the fans of Red Sox in a past season.
Jarren drew conclusion, as far as, I know Pedey gave to him advice and he listened, now we see a result on the field and on a dish.
Dalbec didn’t decide a problem with high fastball from more minor leagues.
You think really, that coachs wouldn’t correct going of Bobby near a dish if this was a simply psychological problem.
I suppose that Dalbec doesn’t see a ball at high fastball therefore he waves on him regularly.
Numbers of Dalbec from April 2021 on August, 7 .2021 :
.214 Avg, 651 Ops.
4 months of Dalbec was in Major League and him nobody lowered in Minor , when in composition Schwarber, of Bobby appeared began to beat from August, 7 to the end of September 2021.
In a play-off his bat was cold.
Casas had 23 game streak series on a base and for the last 15 matches have a line:
45AB, 12H, Double, 3HR, 7RBI, 10Walks, 10SO, .267Avg, .324Obp, .882 Ops.
Do you want to send of Casas in Triple ААА in earnest?
Fever Pitch Guy –
I’ve said all along Casas is very similar to Dalbec, that means the little hot streaks will happen for Casas just like they did for Dalbec. But Casas is still batting .167/.316/.321 against RHSP which is a putrid .637 OPS – he will need to drastically improve against RHSP if he wants to be an everyday starter in MLB.
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You even can’t see differences between Casas and Dalbec and she exists.
Casas has discipline, can get on a base.
Dalbec doesn’t have discipline, waves on high fastball, he has a hole in swings, there is not sense in force if you can’t set a permanent contact ( the example of Cordero is obvious ).
Bobby Dalbec is a Franchy Cordero 2.0.
@bogie2X5 days ago
Check the numbers of Casas for the last week, his bat begins to warm up.
—————————-
Casas has the best OPS on the team over the past 14 days.
You even can’t see differences between Casas and Dalbec and she exists.
Casas has discipline, can get on a base.
Dalbec doesn’t have discipline, waves on high fastball, he has a hole in swings, there is not sense in force if you can’t set a permanent contact ( the example of Cordero is obvious ).
Bobby Dalbec is a Franchy Cordero 2.0.
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I was going to say something similar. Casas & Dalbec are complete opposites. Completely different swing.
I’m sure Anthony has a better explanation, but the way I see it, putting the ball in play has far greater potential for run production than striking out. Even if the bases are empty, fielding errors happen far more frequently than uncaught 3rd strikes. Plus, strikeouts indicate how well or poorly a hitter is seeing pitches.
lay – Excellent post, you make too much sense! I always LOL when the Sabermetric disciples change their stance every few years on what’s valued and what’s not. Just a few years ago they overvalued walks, and now they undervalue walks and overvalue homeruns.
There’s a reason why Chris Carter played his last ever ML game the year after leading the NL in homeruns.
Layventsky – I too am a big fan of putting the ball in play and I miss the days when that was critical to distinguishing between hitters rather than launch angle or exit velocity.
My point is K% is meaningless without context. If two guys have identical OBPs but one strikes out twice as many times the players still provide a comparable stat line. Other positive stats need to be compared to evaluate which is the more valuable player. K rate is a negative stat that has been hyped by the new wave metrics. It might be one of the last considerations when you look at two players with identical OBPs and similar OPS numbers.
Generalizations like K% down grades a player is simply wrong. The OBP takes into account the number of Ks, GOs and FOs. Selecting one the three ways to make an out and emphasizing it as more important than the others is typical of the new generation of stat based fans. How a player makes an out can’t be generalized, it needs to be specific to the situation in the game. If a power guy is up with 1 out and a runner on first base I would rather have him K if he’s going to make an out than ground out. A fly out and a K in this case are the superior types of outs to the ground out. You can’t generalize because the worst case scenario always depends on the situation.
Let me ask you, if two guys have identical OBPs and one guy strikes out more is he seeing the pitches differently than the other hitter or is it simply he made less contact but produced the same success rate?
Historically, high contact rates meant higher OBPs along with players that had good eyes. To me, there are three things that contribute to the production of a hitter – AVERAGE, WALK RATE and ISOLATED POWER. The K-rate of a player is buried in these numbers and is already accounted for so player evaluations should focus on the three components of success since they include the players failure rate whether it’s by ground out, strike out or fly out.
KD – Tremendous post!
So can you believe Cora brought in BRASIER of all people to face Arenado with the bases loaded …. what a moron Cora is. Of course it quickly meant two more runs for the Cardinals, which were charged to Bernardino.
If the Sox don’t mount a massive comeback tonight, they will be swept at home by a 13-25 team … I think this would be an even lower point than when they got swept at home by the Pirates.
And Casas just now makes a 2-base throwing error, grrrreat ….. he needs to be sent down ASAP.
FPG – Lots of teams have misleading records. STL is a quality team that has had a bad start. They will get in the Central hunt at some point. PIT was having a hot start but part of it was who they were playing.
It’s far more embarrassing to lose to the talent on PIT than the talent on STL.
Likewise, I’m sure TOR is talking about how embarrassing to get swept by the talent on the Red Sox. Do you know they got swept by BOS, then swept the Pirates, then got swept by Philly and then swept Atlanta? Serious swings for such a solid team. I think BOS will have it’s hands full next time they meet. A four game NYY/TOR series starts Monday in Toronto.then BAL is in TOR for 3 and then TOR goes to TB for four. ELEVEN critical games for TOR that could launch them into first, drop them below Boston or show how evenly matched the top four teams are in the AL East. Should be fun to watch. In the meantime, BOS gets 3 against SEA at home then a NINE game road trip out west. That trip will be huge if they want to stay in the hunt. 3 vs SD, the Angels and Arizona who is playing much better than expected. That will be fun to watch as well. The next two weeks could create a huge shakeout in the AL East!!!
KD17 –
Lots of teams have misleading records. STL is a quality team that has had a bad start
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I agree with you.
Cardinals not such bad command as many think, such players as Arenado 3B ( 8GG ), Goldschmidt 1B ( MVP NL 2022 ), Contreras C ( WSC 2016 ) would bring a benefit to any to the competitive club.
FPG, you replied to me in the other topic that he won’t play 1 game for Boston. I’m telling you, man… this dude had Ki’keV2 written all over him. Cora is gonna start this guy every game for the next 12 years!!! Hah!
DBH – You could be right, but he hasn’t played yet so we’ll see. LOL!
With both Arroyo & Yu Chang sidelined with injury, this move makes sense for Boston. They had 1B/3B covered with Devers, Turner & Casas so Dalbec didn’t provide much flexibility. Reyes will provide this flexibility for the team while their other middle infielders are out. Unfortunately for Reyes, once Arroyo and Chang get back, he’ll most likely get DFA’d but such is the life of a journeyman MLB player. Who knows, if he plays lights out then the Sox could send Valdez back down and keep Reyes on the club but that is a long shot. Reyes knows exactly what he’s signing up for here.
I hope they keep Valdez around. He seems like a solid hitter so far
No one could expect 4 injuries to Middle Infield. A team’s gotta do what it needs. The guy is just a backup.
Exactly when the back ups back up gets hurt, this is what you do.
Unfortunately, in this case they should and they could.
With story the writing was on the wall, everyone knew his arm wasn’t right when he signed based on decreasing performance.
Arroyo was exactly as advertised when he came in, often injured, had some skills but a long track record of issues staying on the field.
Mondesi was much the same, not only an injury history showing he was essentially made of glass, but, was acquired rehabbing a major injury with no timeline on return.
Chang is the only one you could say you didn’t expect to get hurt as quick as he did, but, he also doesn’t have much track record as anything more than a basic journeyman/bench player. Not a lot should’ve been expected of him.
Perfect response to the tool who said nobody could expect the injuries and the sox knew early in the off-season story would be out until at least August
@Zaftig… for mostteams I agree, but you can expect far more than 4 injuries when 98% of your roster is full of players with a history of injury! And that is what the Sox have right now. Might be beneficial if they’d move Bloom’s office out of the Boston General ER and put it back at Fenway
Zaft is clueless he think story and mondesi got injured while playing this season
Can anyone explain why the article says a 40-man spot was still open because Littell was let go? Paxton took Littell’s spot, as he came off the 60-IL … correct?
Fever: Looks like Paxton was activated from the 15 day IL, so he was already on the 40 man.
suit – Thank you, I appreciate it.
I think I forgot the 60-day starts over with the season opener, and they had expected him to return prior to June.
Sox will see Steven Matz today and Marco Gonzales in the Seattle series so odds are they are just looking for a RH hitter to spell Valdez at 2B in those games
Now that we know that Reyes can hit (yeah, it’s only one day, but he could have flopped right away, too), I hope they use him over someone who can’t, namely Enrique Hernandez. Forget about the left/right platoon stuff–get Enrique “GIDP” Hernandez out of there.
Horace – The common belief is his defensive struggles at SS are impacting his hitting. He needs to get off SS ASAP.
FPG – Kiki needs to get on a bus as soon as possible. LIFETIME .239 hitter and he’s at .237 during his time in Boston. That sucks. If Dalbec hit like that they would send him down….. WAIT they did send him down!!!!!
Equity in who gets to play? Not as long as Cora is Manager.
“LIFETIME .239” Who uses Batting Average to judge players in this day and age. He’s has a lifetime OPS of .728 or OPS+ of 95. Quite acceptable for a Utility IF on 10M, 1 Year Contract.
Do you still use Wins and Loss for Pitchers too? Just idiotic.
Simple question here, why this guy over David Hamilton has he not done enough?
Shamus99 – In my opinion Kiki and Hamilton are comparable except Hamilton has speed. Hamilton hits like Kiki. Hamilton fields like Kiki. Hamilton is loved by Cora like Kiki (Cora befriended Hamilton when he was bench coach of the Astros and Hamilton played at UT).
I think both are problems but if it means losing Kiki, I can support Hamilton at SS. My fear is they will use Kiki elsewhere so then there are two vacant spots in the batting order.
Hamilton is terrible defense, they’re working on it in Triple A. Ask that question again in July/August.
Horace – COMMENT OF THE DAY!!!! Nice job.
Horace Fury –
Maybe Reyes will be able to play better on SS what Kike…
He has a 61 game of in Minors and Fdg% .961 ( 405.0 Inn. )
Kike except the dyed hair and by bright football boots not what doesn’t help this command now, only worsens a situation.
-Paxton looked excellent
-Reyes 2 for 3
-Red Sox still in playoffs
Haters wrong all over the place.
But, I will give you Jansen should not have been brought in last night. He’s a different pitcher than a month ago, give him 2 weeks rest. Cora should know 9th inning is too important to let him work through it.
“Red Sox still in playoffs”
They would be a half game out if the season ended today. Still, there is a lot to be positive about.