The Brewers knocked off the Mets yesterday, pushing four games above .500. With the Reds losing later in Baltimore, Milwaukee nudged back into first place in the NL Central.
No one will be overwhelmed with the Brew Crew’s first couple months. They’ve been outscored by 20 runs on the year and carry a 23-27 record since the start of May. Yet the Cardinals’ disastrous start leaves the door wide open for Milwaukee to take the division, even with Cincinnati outpacing most expectations and the Cubs playing their way back into the mix.
In his first summer leading baseball operations, GM Matt Arnold figures to look for ways to improve the offense. Milwaukee has been a pitching and defense team for years, but the lineup has become particularly problematic in 2023. The Brewers rank 25th in runs despite the generally hitter-friendly nature of American Family Field. Only the A’s have a lower batting average than Milwaukee’s .226 clip, while the Brewers rank 25th in on-base percentage (.303), 28th in slugging (.373) and have the game’s third-highest strikeout rate (25.7%).
Any time a team is struggling to that extent, there’ll be multiple areas of concern. For Milwaukee, none stands out more than first base. The Brewers have gotten just a .223/.294/.378 showing out of the bat-first position. By measure of wRC+, that’s 25th in MLB. The struggles have mounted over the last two months, coinciding with the team’s slide from an 18-10 start. Since May 1, Milwaukee first basemen are hitting .217/.286/.349. Only the Angels have gotten less in that span.
That’s in large part due to an extended slump from Rowdy Tellez. The left-handed hitter had an excellent April (.247/.333/.533) but has hit only .203/.269/.327 in 167 plate appearances over the past two months. His walks and contact quality have both fallen off precipitously. Tellez drew a free pass in over 12% of his trips to the dish in the first month; that’s down to a pedestrian 8.4% clip since.
The drop in batted ball results is even more concerning. Tellez’s calling card has always been big power potential. He popped 35 home runs a season ago and routinely posted excellent batted ball metrics. That hasn’t been the case in 2023. Tellez’s rate of hard contact (batted balls hit 95+ MPH) has fallen from the 45-48% range between 2020-22 to a roughly average 38.4% clip. The softer contact is borne out in the results. He’s on a 25-homer pace with an overall .218/.293/.408 batting line.
Unless Tellez breaks out of this slump in the next few weeks, Arnold and his front office could prioritize a first base upgrade at the deadline. Early-season dice rolls on Luke Voit and Jon Singleton didn’t pan out; neither is still in the organization. Darin Ruf broke a bone in his knee almost immediately after signing and is out into August. Owen Miller is better served as a multi-positional infielder than an everyday first baseman. Keston Hiura is raking in Triple-A again, but he’s struggled to put the ball in play whenever he’s gone up against big league arms.
It’s still too early to know exactly which first basemen could be attainable. Five teams (the A’s, Rockies, Nationals, Cardinals and Royals) are double-digit games out of a playoff spot. Oakland might be open to selling high on Rule 5 find Ryan Noda, but that’s by no means a guarantee. Washington hasn’t gotten much from Joey Meneses or Dominic Smith this year. Colorado could deal C.J. Cron, but he only returned from a nagging back issue yesterday and didn’t hit well before the injury.
Kansas City lost Vinnie Pasquantino to season-ending shoulder surgery and probably wouldn’t have traded him anyhow. It’s still tough to imagine the Cardinals moving Paul Goldschmidt and dealing such a major hit to their 2024 chances; even if they did put the defending NL MVP on the market, they almost certainly wouldn’t want to move him to one of their top divisional competitors.
The Brewers may have to wait a few more weeks to hope for other teams to fall out of contention. Justin Turner is having a strong season and can opt out of his deal with the Red Sox at year’s end. Boston is only three games out of a playoff spot right now; if they dropped five or six back by the deadline, they could listen to offers. Maybe the Orioles would sell low on Ryan Mountcastle, although he’s having an even poorer season than Tellez to date. Pittsburgh’s Connor Joe is a right-handed hitter with a good track record against lefty arms. He’s miscast as a regular but could be a fallback platoon partner with Tellez if Milwaukee can’t swing a bigger upgrade.
Regardless of what the Brewers do this summer, Tellez’s recent struggles put his longer-term future with the organization in doubt. He’s playing this season on a $4.95MM salary and would be in line for a raise in his final season of arbitration. His current trajectory points towards a non-tender. That’d be true on virtually every team and is particularly the case for a Milwaukee organization that has tended not to value the slugging first baseman highly (i.e. non-tendering Chris Carter in 2016 and declining a net $6.5MM option on Eric Thames three years later).
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Good job on listing players that won’t move the needle, but who are some actual trade candidates for the Brewers to upgrade at first?
Dominic Smith doesn’t move the needle for you ?!?!?!?
not really, hes a singles machine, Brewers need a power bat.
That’s generally the type of player you can realistically acquire in season and hope performs better with change of scenery.
I forgot to add /s after that lol
I’d see him more as just another guy on a long list of underachievers at Brewers 1B
Good analysis, thanks!
Now we’re provided opinion pieces and armchair GM articles rather than merely reporting the news.
Did they change the name of the site to MLB Trade News?
Yes they did.
I found it to be a pretty thorough breakdown of available options
It’s quite obvious from the title that it’s going to be an opinion piece. You could just not read it and save yourself the time and aggravation.
Mountcastle. IMO, needs to get away from that left field wall at OPACY. Young, cheap, team control. Change of scenery should do him a lot of good.
Call the Cubs. We have a Never ending supply.
What or who do the crew have that would be interesting enough to pry Morel free from the Cubs. Without moving pitching, given all their injuries.
Frustrating that this should be a position relatively easy to fill. Bat first options are generally plentiful, but Milwaukee has had problems developing bats for a decade (Fielder being the last), at first and 3rd. Well, I guess you could extend that, come to think of it; Yelich, Brian Anderson, Urias, Adames, Rowdy, Brosseau, Caratini, Contreras. Heck, Weimer is the only rostered position player to come up through the system. Everyone else came in free agency or trade. Disappointing.
One of Stearns first moves was to trade low cost Garrett Cooper to the Yankees for a lefty pitcher Tyler Webb, who pitched 2 innings for the Brewers and gave up a grand slam. He did make the all star game last year, after 3 straight .280 or better seasons. Not much power, but a consistent hitter with an OPS that would be among the leaders on the team in recent years. Orlando Arcia is an allstar this year, giving up 2 quality pitchers for Adames does not look as good, Adames was great his first partial year, now he strikes out more than Rob Deer or Jose Hernandez, more than Gorman Thomas.
They could get Dalbec for next to nothing. He’s produced in flashes but K’s and horrid slumps have been issues. A very low-risk option that could pay off……. But it probably wouldn’t.
Tellez is ineffective and needs to go. He’s not even a streak hitter and his defense is suspect but the Brewer management is cheap and likely won’t take a risk to add a meaningful player at a key position.
As was mentioned above, meaningful players that are available are few and far. Being cheap, or willing to spend, doesn’t change what’s available.
Connor Joe getting mentioned genuinely made me laugh
Every Pirates article has fans hating on him for striking out. No better than what the Crew already has, fo sho!
They stuck with Rowdy, for the most part. But they have the book on him, stay away from the low-inside where he gets that golf swing going and he either rolls a grounder or strikes out. He can’t beat anything out.
they aren’t trading him to the brewers and i don’t see a lot of options for anybody to add a difference maker at first.
pirates would absolutely accept any offer for Joe
would rather Joe than Dalbec
1b and DH both need to be upgraded. I feel like one of them can be filled by Yelich. Then call up Sal Frelic to cover his space in LF. Yelich needs to find a new position soon, next year the OF will be patrolled by Mitchell, Frelick and either Wiemer or Chourio.
Isn’t Frelick hurt now?
He just returned to AAA.
He is back, i think they said they wanted him to get like 2 weeks in AAA before they would consider him coming up. so probably July 1
I dont think the A’s would move Noda but you could probably buy low on Seth Brown
Pick a first baseman and give him confidence by sticking with him. ENOUGH of this analytics /platoon nonsense!
Seriously? Platoon match-ups are basically as old as pro baseball itself and HOF managers from well before modern sabrmetrics and analytics like Casey Stengel and Earl Weaver are known for systematically using platoon systems with their rosters and line up construction. Funny how the self appointed defenders of old school baseball can seem the least informed about the history of the game.
They also had an old saying that if you had two people sharing a position, then you had no one at that position. Maybe you should study more when you Google.
That’s funny cuz I googled that and nothing like that came up. You’d think such age old wisdom would be worth a Google result or two no? Point is the idea that platoon systems are the work of the analytics devil is completely nonsensical, ahistorical and ill-informed my dude.
Analytics have been used for decades. Every team uses them. Expand yourself and watch other team roster management. You can even watch the one against to Brewers to make it easy on yourself. If you need motivation, fantasy baseball can help. The analytics argument is worn out. EVERY team has an analytics department. EVERY
Hiura happened to injure himself when Voit then Winker had injuries/sickness themselves. Maybe if he’d be healthy, the Crew would use him since all the players they’ve tried at DH have produced worse batting lines.
It’s madness to have no answers in the system for a position that has, “just give him a 1b glove” fit. Not 1 failed 3b or C prospect to take that mantra on legit since Prince Fielder left Milw after 2011! 3b since 1999 after Jeff Cirillo! Just place holders mediocre at the corners.
I’m sure with the 1st pick this draft we’ll take another college SS or CF.
They won’t replace Tellez at 1b. They’ll make a move for a DH since Winker has 4 total Xbh pretending to be 1. How they haven’t given Yelich the 1b glove already beats the hell out of me. No foresight with Milw’s leadership. Complacent all the way around going on since the Pandemic and extending Yelich in 2020 before seeing him play after his kneecap injury.
Just a theory here..is it possible Yelich has refused to transition to 1B? That is, assuming he’s been asked about the idea in the first place..
I can’t even believe I’m saying this, but if Keston is healthy again and hitting (still), maybe it’s time for his last chance. Not thrilled about putting him at 1B (or anywhere on defense) but try it for 2 or 3 weeks before trading assets for another clone of what we already have. It’s not like they’re gaining anything more by keeping him in the minors the rest of the year.
I wonder if they’re waiting for later in the year. If they bring him up and he still sucks, they’ll have to expose him to waivers. I mean, how many chances do you give this guy before you cut bait and hope he doesn’t find it somewhere else?
Unless he’s getting the Lindblom treatment. Like they’re punishing him now for not opting for free agency when he didn’t make the club out of ST…I don’t know.
I do think if they actually bring him up, he HAS to play every day. Can’t play 1 day, ride the pine for 2, then pinch hit in the 9th the next, 2 more DNP’s…etc. Otherwise I almost guarantee he forgets how to make contact and it’ll be another 1-27 slump with 19 K’s.
Agreed. But he’ll be platooned with Rowdy I’d guess, so that’s not happening. And Counsell doesn’t have the balls to leave him at DH for an extended run. Dude is completely averse to setting a lineup/order and sticking with it.
If he comes up and still sucks, who cares if they expose him to waivers? No one claimed him last time. He’s still got to be paid if claimed.
As was touched on, perhaps they are afraid he’ll catch on somewhere else and cost us some games down the line if someone else claims him.
Yeli was drafted as a firstbaseman. I think once all the young OFs are up with the team he makes the transition.
True he may have refused. Simple answer is for him would be why when we have Tellez through 2024? I can learn it then.
It’s just amazing you develop the OFs and don’t give them a 1b try ignoring the defense you may get from them in OF. I think at 1 point Chourio was a SS/3b thought before his jump in realizing he would be special in the OF for value. That’s great and all but the team has no value at 3b/1b. Start thinking ahead and find 1 of your future 5 OFs to start next season to also play there.
While it is generally the easiest position to play, not just anyone can move to 1B from another position. There are notable examples like Matt Holiday of players who tried and failed to transition to 1B from another position.
You need Ron Washington to properly transition someone to firstbase. Tell him Ron!
Smith is not an upgrade over Tellez offensively. I feel like Cron will be in high demand in the next month and a half
Most of the guys mentioned don’t seem to be. But they’ll trade a couple low level prospects for another reclamation project, and scratch their heads when it fails. I hear Vogelbach might be had for the right price. I could see them bringing him back…
While they’re at it, pick up a DH that can hit.
Meneses is hitting nearly .3o0 for the Nats. Which is in the top 10 in the National League. I know batting average isn’t highly thought of around these parts, but it still does mean that a guy is hitting well
But are all his hits HR though..? If not, it doesn’t matter what his ba is!
I agree. Was baffled when the author said the Nats haven’t “gotten much” out of him. I’m sure a Nationals fan can chime in here and say that Meneses has been great.
He hasn’t been great. He’s been league average offensively. he’s a 1B who doesn’t run well, hit HRS, or take walks. Definitely not a starting 1B on a contender.
Fine placeholder for the Nats long rebuild.
Brewers should go bold and be sellers. Trade anyone on expiring contracts and see what Burnes will bring back.
Why should they when they currently have the best odds to win the division?
Burnes will be traded in the winter
IF the Brewers can learn to utilize him correctly, they should absolutely bring Keston Hiura back up. He has extreme reverse splits, and really should be thought of as though he was a left-handed hitter. Last year .254/.344/.522 vs RHP. I love Craig Counsell but his misuse of Hiura drives me up the wall (.188/.275/.344 vs LHP). Perhaps not to replace Tellez, but at DH instead of Winker, absolutely.
The Cardinals are only 8 games out of a playoff spot. As pathetic as it will likely be, the NL Central Division Title still counts as a playoff spot, you know.
-send a pitcher to Boston in exchange for Dalbec
-sign Hosmer
-Miguel Sanó is available (no good)
Call the Tigers about Torkelson and some of their pitching and build a package around Garrett Mitchell as a return. Throw in complimentary pieces on each side. Tigers can afford to wait on Mitchell since they are very likely not going to make the playoffs and if they did would not be competitive. Tork has played way better this year and will be a 30 HR guy very soon.
Plus, since he was drafted by Avila, he is not one of Harris’ guys, so that would motivate him to make a stupid move for Detroit.
Brewers got some teflon at SS. Since his going 4-5 with 5 RBIs. Willy Adames has gone back to his old self going 0-14 with 6 K’s since.
Adames is super streaky – maddeningly so. A little too focused on hitting for power I’m afraid, like most lineups these days. Really no different than Urias or Arcia before him, although Arcia never had the power.
Rizzo might become available.
If they’re going to trade with Pittsburgh, Carlos Santana makes a lot more sense than Connor Joe. Not sure why he wasn’t mentioned. In any event, Hiura is probably the best option. He doesn’t need to hit like he did in 2019, if he could just repeat his line from last year he’d be a huge upgrade over what they’ve had at 1B or DH so far this season.