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The Cubs Hit A Jackpot In Minor League Free Agency — Now What?

By Steve Adams | July 11, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

Since the Cubs’ signing of Craig Kimbrel left them feeling burned for the first two seasons of the contract, ownership and the front office have eschewed spending on the bullpen. Rather than invest in high-priced relief options in free agency, the Cubs have spread out their bullpen investments over a series of small-scale additions, either on low-cost one-year deals or on minor league free agents. At times, they’ve had great success with the strategy (e.g. Andrew Chafin, David Robertson). Others haven’t gone so well (e.g. Brad Boxberger, Brandon Workman). They haven’t been burned by any big relief pitching commitments since Kimbrel, but they also have generally sat out on the top names on the market.

The merits of the strategy can be debated ad nauseum. On the one hand, it’s unequivocally a good thing to avoid being encumbered by any burdensome multi-year deals for relievers. On the other, the Cubs have the financial resources and payroll capacity to take such risks and withstand the missteps more than many of their smaller-payroll rivals. By steering clear of expensive, multi-year commitments they’ve also bypassed a number of quality relief options while trotting out bullpens with ERAs of 4.39 (2021), 4.12 (2022) and 4.01 (2023). Since 2021, Cubs relievers rank 20th in MLB with a 4.21 ERA.

It’s not as simple as stating, “You get what you pay for,” as player development plays an enormous role; the Guardians, for instance, have the second-best bullpen ERA in the past three years (3.30) despite signing just one reliever (Bryan Shaw) as a Major League free agent.

Relying on low-cost bullpen additions increases the importance of developing in-house relievers — which the Cubs have not done all that well — or striking it big in minor league free agency, where teams can potentially land multiple years of an effective reliever who’s not yet burned through his arbitration seasons. The Cubs’ lack of big investments and lack of development from the farm makes their biggest score in minor league free agency all the more important.

Mark Leiter Jr. has been nothing short of a godsend at Wrigley Field.

A 22nd-round pick by the Phillies back in 2013, Leiter (obviously) comes from a prolific baseball family. His father, Mark Sr., enjoyed an 11-year big league career. His uncle, Al, is a two-time All-Star and two-time World Series champion who pitched in 19 Major League seasons. Leiter Jr.’s cousin, Jack, was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Just two years ago, Leiter Jr. looked to be a footnote in the Leiter family baseball lineage. He didn’t pitch in the Majors from 2019-21, despite solid numbers with the Tigers’ upper minors affiliates in ’21. When he quietly joined the Cubs on a minor league deal during MLB’s lockout — minor league free agency for players who didn’t finish the prior season on a 40-man roster or MLB injured list still continued during the stoppage — few thought much of it. Leiter looked like minor league depth and little more than that.

Perhaps that was how the Cubs saw things, too. Leiter didn’t break camp with the team in 2022 and was only summoned to the big leagues as a spot starter in mid-April. He started three games for the Cubs, yielded nine runs in 9 1/3 innings, and was optioned back to Triple-A Iowa. Over the next couple months, he was optioned back and forth a few different times, eventually moving into a full-time bullpen role.

For much of the season, Leiter was a nondescript swingman on a non-contending Cubs club. Trades of Scott Effross, David Robertson, Chris Martin and Mychal Givens, however, opened enough space in the bullpen for the Cubs to call Leiter back to the big leagues and stick him in the bullpen for good. The results were excellent. Although he carried a 5.35 ERA into last year’s All-Star break, Leiter was summoned to the Majors on July 30 and dominated in the season’s final two months: 29 innings, 2.17 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 27.4% strikeout rate, 9.4% walk rate, 50% ground-ball rate, three saves, four holds.

Even with that big finish to the season, however, Leiter didn’t stick on the Cubs’ 40-man roster all winter. Chicago held onto Leiter into January but ultimately chose to designate him for assignment in order to open a roster spot for Eric Hosmer (who’d eventually be released in June).

Perhaps it was Leiter’s lack of a power fastball, his spotty track record, his status as an out-of-options pitcher, or the fact that most clubs had already filled their 40-man rosters by mid-January and didn’t want to adjust — whatever the reason, Leiter cleared waivers. He elected free agency and re-signed with the Cubs less than two weeks later. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, manager David Ross and the rest of the Cubs brass have to be thrilled with that outcome.

This time around, Leiter wound up breaking camp with the team — and it’s hard to imagine where they’d be without him. In 36 2/3 innings, Leiter carries a 3.19 ERA with a career-high 34.7% strikeout rate against a tidy 8.0% walk rate. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a strong 48.8% clip, allowed just three home runs (0.74 HR/9), picked up three more saves and piled up 13 holds. The Cubs were hoping that offseason signees like Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer could hold down late-inning roles, but it’s been Leiter who’s stepped up as the team’s most reliable setup man.

Leiter doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 91.8 mph on his heater, but both his four-seamer and sinker take a backseat to his splitter anyhow. It’s a tumbling offering that opponents have hammered into the ground at a 52.9% clip… when they put the ball in play. Leiter carries a mammoth 49.2% whiff rate on the splitter, which is a huge reason that opponents are batting just .088/.186/.132 in the 102 plate appearances he’s ended with that pitch. Unsurprisingly, after throwing the pitch at a 22.7% clip last year (per Statcast), he’s ramped that usage rate up to 35.8% in 2023. It’s now his most-used pitch.

He’s had some rough outings recently, allowing a total of four runs in his past three innings, but the overall results this season have nevertheless been excellent. In fact, dating back to July 30 of last season, when Leiter was called to the big leagues for good, he’s now sporting a 2.74 ERA, 31.5% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate, 49.3% grounder rate and 0.69 HR/9 mark. Leiter has been proof that not all high-leverage arms need to feature triple-digit fireballs that blow opponents out of their socks.

Cubs management surely hopes the team can come firing out of the gates and play its way back into contention. The Cubs’ schedule coming out of the break, after all, isn’t exactly formidable. They’ll kick things off with three against the Red Sox before playing their next 13 games against the Nationals, Cardinals and White Sox — three of the worst teams in the Majors this season. It’s quite possible the Cubs can indeed climb back into the division race.

If, however, the Cubs continue to flounder and/or the Reds and Brewers pull away, Leiter is likely to draw some trade interest. Normally, a pitcher with more than three years of club control wouldn’t be a trade candidate for a team like the Cubs, who if not this year hope to contend in 2024. But Leiter is 32 — 33 next March — and only came to them on a minor league deal. If another club is willing to give up some actual prospect value, it’d be hard not to give serious consideration to the scenario.

Leiter’s emergence is a feel-good story — a 22nd-round pick that was never a top prospect despite coming from a high-profile baseball family, he hung on when his career looked lost, clawed back to the big leagues in his 30s and now finds himself as a valuable arm in a big league bullpen. More than that, however, his emergence could put the Cubs in a quandary — if they’re not able to turn their fortunes. Hang onto a quality reliever for his final three years of team control, or sell high and trade a 32-year-old who’s effectively “found money” for them when he’s at peak value? These are the types of decisions the Cubs will face over the next few weeks, making their immediate performance following the deadline a particularly important component of this year’s deadline season.

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Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals Mark Leiter Jr.

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60 Comments

  1. Goku the Knowledgable One

    2 years ago

    imagine if the guys they paid big money to did anything?

    Dansby, Taillon, Belllinger

    Reply
    • mike127

      2 years ago

      Taillon has been pretty brutal but Dansby and Bellinger have done every bit of what they are being paid.

      33
      Reply
      • Unclemike1525

        2 years ago

        mike- I expect Taillon to have some kind of rebound after the break Not the 8 shutout guy but he’s been a pretty decent P when he’s not injured. Some things that need to be done after the break are Mervis and Young need to switch places. Hopefully Madrigal comes back and he and Mastrobuoni switch places. Little, Horn and Jensen get auditions with Ruckers spot. Get their feet wet. PCA gets moved to Iowa to start him on his way to early next year call up. get the young guys some experience, It’s the way to go.

        3
        Reply
        • mike127

          2 years ago

          Unc—I hope that Taillon pitches MUCH better in the second half. I’m hunching that anything short of a 12-5 record coming out of the break until the end of the month will lead to a rotation without Stroman and Hendricks so Jamo has to pitch well to make the last two months palatable.

          I’m not (never was) that high on Mervis but we need to find out sooner rather than later. And every time Madrigal shows a glimmer he gets hurt running.

          Let the pitchers in the minors continue to develop and pick the spots for opportunities.

          Reply
        • Unclemike1525

          2 years ago

          mike, I’ve seen just bout all of Mastrobuoni and Wisdom I can stand. As for Madrigal since Bote has leprosy or some similar organizational disease It’s either Vasquez or the older Acantara to take their place. I personally don’t see how any of Mastrobuoni, Wisdom, or Madrigal or Alcantara are here next year, Especially since I’ve been reading the Cubs might fast track Shaw in the minors like they did Hoerner. Apparently they think he can do it.

          3
          Reply
        • Kayrall

          2 years ago

          Unc, I agree with everything except for Rucker. He’s been better than serviceable this year.

          Reply
        • Unclemike1525

          2 years ago

          Yeah but I’m looking for more than serviceable. Serviceable isn’t very good.

          Reply
        • OJ's White Ford Bronco

          2 years ago

          Madrigal walks and runs like a Duck. Duck feet. Quack Quack. Unfortunately, he will always have issues. I’m just sayin….

          1
          Reply
        • Dunk Dunkington

          2 years ago

          I think the issue with Bote, if they had him back to the 40 man and DFA again he can elect free agency will getting paid the remainder of his contract. I could be wrong about that

          Reply
        • franklinstubbsghost

          2 years ago

          I’m in total agreement on Wisdom and Mastrobuoni. Wisdom is good for a homer a week and little else. Easy to pitch to as he has no knowledge of the strike zone.

          Reply
        • drasco036

          2 years ago

          Wisdom has a below average chase rate. The problem is he misses in the zone and he can no longer hit fastballs.

          Reply
        • CityofChampions

          2 years ago

          They’re still paying him anyway.

          Reply
        • Unclemike1525

          2 years ago

          Cubs: The record doesn’t match the underlying numbers
          After two years of rebuilding, the Cubs infused the 2023 roster with veteran free agents with the goal of fielding a more competitive team. Led by All-Stars Marcus Stroman and Justin Steele, the rotation (4.02 ERA ranks fourth in the NL) has been solid. The bullpen weathered a rough start and has been the second-best group in the NL by ERA (2.95) since the start of June. Anchored by Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner up the middle, the defense has been reliable. And the underlying numbers – the Cubs are the only NL Central team with a positive run differential (+26) – indicate that the team should be better than its record. On the offensive side, the power has been lacking (.396 slugging percentage), leaving plenty of room for improvement in the second half. — Jordan Bastian

          Article about the Cubs on MLB.com.
          Couldn’t agree more.
          Conclusion- Ross
          Now I’m sure of it.

          1
          Reply
        • drasco036

          2 years ago

          I agree 100%, when the win/loss record does not reflect the talent on the roster, the issue is with the manager.

          Reply
      • cdouglas24000

        2 years ago

        Dansby has not even proved anywhere close to as valuable as last year with the stick. JP crawford is providing simillar value to M’s and he’s costing them only 10.5 mil a year for 3 and a half more years.

        1
        Reply
        • KP23

          2 years ago

          And take note that when the bill comes due, Crawford will get paid at or above what Swanson got.

          Reply
        • BaseballisLife

          2 years ago

          Swanson is on pace for a 5.4 WAR season after 5.7 last year. He has a 105 OPS+ after 114 last season. He has been exactly what they paid for.

          6
          Reply
        • BaseballisLife

          2 years ago

          Not even close.

          Reply
        • BaseballisLife

          2 years ago

          Was saying Crawford will not get paid anything close to what Swanson got paid.

          Reply
    • Capi

      2 years ago

      Dansby and Bellinger?

      1
      Reply
      • Goku the Knowledgable One

        2 years ago

        .258 with 10 HR is worth 27 mil a year ok

        4
        Reply
        • mike127

          2 years ago

          I never thought too much about Dansby until I have had the chance to watch him every day. He is absolutely elite defensively—-arguably the best in the game—-and a shortstop that hits 20+ homers is also a plus.

          It’s not my money, but if that’s the going rate for a shortstop, he’s well worth it.

          14
          Reply
        • Capi

          2 years ago

          He is 2nd in the NL in OPS and WAR among SS and first in obp, he made the all star team and is well on his way to win another GG, so yes, he’s worth that money.

          13
          Reply
        • JoeBrady

          2 years ago

          Maybe not in 7 years, but right now? He’s fine.

          Reply
        • BaseballisLife

          2 years ago

          A bit better than fine.

          1
          Reply
        • FrankRoo

          2 years ago

          A SS that plays gold glove defense and above average bat? Yes.

          1
          Reply
        • kgcubs

          2 years ago

          Absolutely agree with you! So glad Jed didn’t cave to fan pressure and sign Correa! Now we’ll see if Shaw’s development moves quickly. If his defense is good and his bat more potent than Nico’s, it’ll be interesting what happens at 2nd. If Shaw had a strong arm he could also be a possibility at 3rd. Mahalo!

          Reply
        • FunkyButtLovin

          2 years ago

          Yes and also voted an all-star…are you on the crank?

          Reply
  2. Unclemike1525

    2 years ago

    If the Cubs are the same amount of games behind as they are right now, I fully expect them to ride the season out with no big moves. The team could still go on another winning streak as long as Ross doesn’t have any more major brain cramps. The young arms are coming along and they’re right where they should be getting experience against Major League hitters.

    2
    Reply
  3. qbert1996

    2 years ago

    Godsend may be stretching it a bit. Feel good story for sure though. Cubs have had a knack for finding these guys and getting a better return on investment

    3
    Reply
  4. Wheeler Dealer

    2 years ago

    Cubs need to make a deal for Rockies 3rd baseman Ryan McMahon it would solidify that left side of infield and add some pop to that offense

    3
    Reply
    • stymeedone

      2 years ago

      McMahon just signed a long term contract and is going no where.

      4
      Reply
      • Wheeler Dealer

        2 years ago

        That doesn’t mean anything if the Cubs offer some great prospects

        Reply
  5. Cohen’sLastWhiteTooth

    2 years ago

    This is another story of a dude that would have been long out of the league unless he had family in the business.

    A non-Leiter would have been out of the league 3-4 years ago. Same with Mike Yaz. It’s great these guys got the opportunity and blossomed later, but it’s only because they got the “super special extended look discount for family” in the minors

    1
    Reply
    • Unclemike1525

      2 years ago

      What are you talking about? he was on his last legs trying to be a starter on a bad Cubs team last year when the Cubs threw him in as a reliever and he actually was pretty good at it. He’s not Bruce Sutter but his split plays as long as he gets ahead. He’s still average at best but since you have to face 3 batters now he’s good agst lefties more than righties which makes him sort of valuable. His name means squat.

      4
      Reply
    • holecamels35

      2 years ago

      Disagree. In baseball, players never die if they keep grinding away in the minors, they just have to take advantage if they get an opportunity.

      Reply
    • JoeBrady

      2 years ago

      A non-Leiter would have been out of the league 3-4 years ago.
      ==============================
      He was out of the league 3-4 years ago. Kudos for sticking it out in the minors.

      3
      Reply
  6. DarkSide830

    2 years ago

    Phillies Legend

    2
    Reply
  7. jorge78

    2 years ago

    Good luck Mark!

    Reply
  8. SweetBabyRayKingsThickThighs

    2 years ago

    Trade him while he has value

    1
    Reply
  9. mookiesboy

    2 years ago

    He was hurt. He put in the work and recovered – a bit older and wiser. Good for him! If he stays healthy he certainly can be a good addition to any pen

    Reply
  10. DodgerBlue22

    2 years ago

    Ohtani for: Gonsilin, May, Lux.

    Reply
    • Ignorant Son-of-a-b

      2 years ago

      Keep smoking that Cali bud !!!!

      1
      Reply
    • stymeedone

      2 years ago

      Wrong thread for that nonsense. Try to stay on topic.

      3
      Reply
    • Ignorant Son-of-a-b

      2 years ago

      That was a lot of words written and ink spilled over a humdrum middle reliever on a humdrum team. But I read every word and enjoyed the heck out of the article. Great content. I hope the Cubs turn it up a notch and make the Brewers & Reds sweat it out as they sneak glances at their rearview mirror seeing the Cubs get closer & closer.

      3
      Reply
      • Logjammer D"Baggagecling

        2 years ago

        They definitely need a closer but Adbert Alzolay has been great in that role so far.

        Reply
  11. Slider_withcheese

    2 years ago

    The Cubs will be the next National League team to win the World Series.

    Reply
  12. mike127

    2 years ago

    One of two things is happening when you have a 3,000 word article on Mark Leiter Jr at the all star break.

    1. You have found that piece and are comfortably ahead in the division, or
    2 You are hopelessly on a roller coaster that leaves you in the bottom half of baseball.

    Welp—guess which one it is………

    Reply
  13. mad dog

    2 years ago

    Good luck

    Reply
  14. Unclemike1525

    2 years ago

    This Cubs team has the talent to win this division but not much else. On August 1st if they’re still within shouting distance Jed should give them a shot at it. That being said if somebody comes up and knocks Jed over with an offer for Bellinger, Stroman or Hendricks I’d think he’d be inclined to take it. Just my opinion, And I’ve been way off this year on lots of things. This team is confusing. Or maybe it’s Ross. IDK.

    2
    Reply
    • Logjammer D"Baggagecling

      2 years ago

      I’ve talked to some people that are saying the cubs need to trade Stroman, Hendricks and Smyly. I don’t get the point of that. It’s stupid to me to trade 60% of their rotation. It’s not a fire sale. It’s a rebuild. A rebuild that honestly should never happen with a top 5 most profitable franchises. They’re worth 4billion dollars. Quadruple of what Joe Ricketts paid for them in less than a decade.

      Unfortunately Joe is cheap and rarely let’s Jed spend his money.

      Reply
      • Unclemike1525

        2 years ago

        Why do you insist on bringing Joe Ricketts into any conversation when he has absolutely nothing to do with the Cubs? And don’t tell me it says so on Wikipedia. You do know anybody can change that crap right? You probably did it yourself. And Google will print anything for a buck so your argument holds absolutely Zero sway and nobody here believes you anyway. I hope you wear a hockey helmet as often as you hit your head on brick walls. Find something new to try and sell.

        Reply
        • drasco036

          2 years ago

          Some people only have one card to play and they will continue to play that card even if it’s wrong or irrelevant.
          I would trade Stroman if there isn’t any interest in re-signing him at the end of the year. Hendricks has a team option so I’d only deal him if I got a really one sided offer. Smyly I thought was a mistake to begin with so I’d be happy to see that slot open up for next year.
          I don’t see the Cubs coming out of the break and winning 10 straight, which is pretty much what they would need to do to avoid selling at this point.

          Reply
        • Logjammer D"Baggagecling

          2 years ago

          Yes that’s true anyone can make edits however you need to prove all changes. And if you don’t they change it back. Joe Ricketts is the owner of the cubs. He just has his silver spoon kids run the team.

          He only wanted the title of “Chicago cubs owner”

          Reply
        • drasco036

          2 years ago

          It may be a little ticky tacky for some, but Joe is mostly considered to be a prime investor while ownership falls to Tom, Laura and Todd. Tom Ricketts is the chairman, most visible and typically handles the ownership decisions.

          Saying Joe is cheap is an ignorant statement, not only because he has little to do with team operations but also because the Cubs spend.

          The fallacy the Cubs have been cheap falls to 2021 when Covid wiped out the 2020 profits and the Cubs traded away Darvish and non-tendered Schwarber. However, as soon as the Cubs were told they would be allowed fans at a certain capacity, the Cubs turned around and raised payroll, notably signing Pederson.

          2021 turned out to be a bust, Cubs traded away their “core” players and started their soft rebuild. In 2022, the Cubs made several signings while still in the midst of the soft rebuild, Stroman and Suzuki being the most notable.

          2023 the Cubs upped spending once more, headlined by Swanson and Bellinger but also adding thus far ill sighted Mancini and Taillon. They also extended Happ and Nico.

          The Cubs had to lower payroll in 2021, regardless of the cry baby “cubs are cheap” crowd say. A huge Wrigley renovation check was due in 2021 and they lost a ton of money by not having fans (and a loss of games in general) in 2020. More of the same was in store for 2021 season. Regardless of people may think, good owners work on a budget. They couldn’t bring back Baez, Bryant (thank god on those two) or Rizzo in 2022 but they still added and tried to improve. The Cubs are pushing the luxury tax this year, sure they could have went over but that would have been ill advised. I personally just wish they would have avoided signing Smyly, Mancini and Fulmer and instead opted to bring Chaffin back and made an honest effort to sign JD Martinez.

          Reply
        • Logjammer D"Baggagecling

          2 years ago

          Lmao. His daughter’s name is Laura. I’ve been calling her Karen.

          You’re technically right, but it was Joe’s money that bought the team. Until that happened. Tom, Todd, and Karen never worked a day in their life.

          Fulmer has been better lately. I liked the Mancini signing at first. Because he’s a cancer surivor. Now it’s like wtf is he doing in the lineup.
          My biggest complaint about Tom is that he didn’t see his first Cubs game until he was 21. For me, that’s a bandwagon fan at its finest. For me, I was born into being a Cubs fan.

          Reply
  15. Wheeler Dealer

    2 years ago

    Cubs can win division but definitely need to shore up 3rd and 1st let PCA come play center, put Belli at first and trade for a 3rd baseman like McMahon of Colorado

    Reply
    • Unclemike1525

      2 years ago

      Morel came up all through the Cubs system as a 3B. Is he Nolan Arenado? No. But as long as his offense out performs his defense that’s OK by me. Plus leaving him in one spot can only help him going forward. You can’t keep moving the guy around and expect him to improve at any of them. And I’m still in the belief that this is a development and experience year as much as a contending one. It should be development over winning the lame division. And Bellinger is just fine where he is and I think Tauchman will come back to Earth sometime.

      1
      Reply
  16. capone14

    2 years ago

    Now what ? You Trade him if you can get back better long term value and other players with shoe and or contracts that are up Then as a organization you figure out why you can’t seem to draft good past the 1st round. The cubs have to make sure draft picks count or you run into what happened with this last group, Being forced to trade for pitching and or not willing to let a season play out before jumping the gun trading major future players just to claw for a playoff spot .. the eloy / Cease deal gave the cubs what 1-2 short playoff series but cost them probably 2-3 decent playoff runs if not more .
    I’m probably 1 of the few cubs fans that if the cubs were mediocre then I hope they get bad by the trade line so that they would trade players. Stro should bring back a decent hall maybe if cubs are luck they package a 2 pitcher for top end prospect even if that team happens to be the reds ( I would prefer a deal with Baltimore or the twins . In my wet dream I dream of a Brooks Lee trade or better yet a trade for Holiday

    Reply
  17. capone14

    2 years ago

    I agree

    Reply

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