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Mark Leiter Jr.

Yankees Place Mark Leiter Jr. On IL With Fibular Head Stress Fracture

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The Yankees announced today that right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left fibular head stress fracture. No timeline for his absence has been provided. Righty Clayton Beeter has been recalled in a corresponding move.

Leiter told reporters, including Max Goodman of NJ Advance Media, that he suffered the injury while covering first base in a game against the Reds on June 24th. As seen in this video from MLB.com, Leiter was racing Elly De La Cruz to first and landed a bit awkwardly around the bag. Remarkably, he stayed in the game at that point and has also made four appearances since suffering that fracture.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, his results have taken a step back since he’s been pitching through the injury. After De La Cruz was safe at first, he then allowed a single, uncorked a wild pitch, issued a walk and allowed another single, taking the loss in that game. In the four subsequent outings, he allowed five earned runs in 2 1/3 innings.

Prior to the injury, his results were quite strong. Going into that game where he suffered the fracture, he had a 3.48 earned run average in 31 innings. His 32.1% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate and 50.6% ground ball rate were all well above average. He recorded two saves and ten holds out of Aaron Boone’s bullpen.

Losing that arm is another blow for the Yankee staff. He is now the eighth pitcher on the club’s IL. The starting staff is without Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt and Ryan Yarbrough, while the bullpen is down Leiter, Jake Cousins, Fernando Cruz and Yerry De los Santos.

Understandably, as the bodies have been piling up, the club has hit a rough skid. They were victorious in Sunday’s game against the Mets, which snapped a six-game losing streak. Four of those six losses came against the surging Blue Jays, who took over first place in the American League East in the process.

As mentioned, it’s unclear how long Leiter should be down. Since he was able to pitch through the injury, perhaps he will only require a minimum stint on the IL. However, all contending clubs look for bullpen upgrades at the deadline and the recent spate of injuries suffered by the Yankees should only increase their urgency in that department.

Photo courtesy of Sam Greene, Imagn Images

Yankees Win Arbitration Hearing Over Mark Leiter Jr.

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The Yankees defeated reliever Mark Leiter Jr. in an arbitration hearing, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.  Leiter will earn $2.05MM for the 2025 season, rather than the $2.5MM salary he was looking to land.

New York picked Leiter up from the Cubs at the trade deadline, and the right-hander posted a 4.98 ERA over 21 2/3 innings in the pinstripes over the rest of the regular season.  Overall, Leiter finished the 2024 campaign with a 4.50 ERA in 58 combined innings with Chicago and New York, along with a very strong 33.6% strikeout rate and some of the best chase and whiff rates of any pitcher in baseball.

Beyond the big strikeout numbers and a 46.2% grounder rate, however, Leiter had a below-average 8.6% walk rate, and his homer rate spiked after the trade to the Bronx.  On the plus side, Leiter got on track for the Yankees during their playoff run, delivering a 1.69 ERA over 5 1/3 innings across six appearances in the ALCS and World Series.

Leiter turns 34 next month, but he is only in his second trip through the arbitration process due to the late-breaking nature of his MLB career.  The righty didn’t make his big league debut until age 26, and it wasn’t until his age-31 season with the Cubs that Leiter started to emerge as a solid bullpen arm.  Leiter has earned 43 holds over the last two seasons, but since arbitration panels generally favor saves as the primary counting stat when gauging reliever salaries, it perhaps isn’t surprising that this panel ruled in the Yankees’ favor.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz predicted a $2.1MM salary for Leiter in 2025, so the right-hander’s final salary clocks in just slightly below that projection.  The Yankees’ control over Leiter runs through the 2026 campaign, and today’s decision officially closes the book on all of the Bombers’ arbitration business for the offseason.

Ian Hamilton Replaced By Mark Leiter Jr. On Yankees’ ALCS Roster

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Major League Baseball announced that it has approved a roster substitution for the Yankees, with right-hander Ian Hamilton replaced by fellow righty Mark Leiter Jr. Playoff rules dictate that a player removed due to an injury is ineligible to play in that series as well as the following one, so Hamilton won’t be eligible to play in the World Series if the Yankees advance.

The move doesn’t come out of nowhere, as Hamilton was removed from last night’s game against the Guardians with an injury that he appeared to sustain while covering first base on a ground ball. The Yankees described his injury as left calf tightness and it now appears that it’s serious enough that they felt compelled to make a switch.

That could be because they don’t expect Hamilton back in the next few weeks or simply because they didn’t want to play short-handed for the next few days. The Yanks are about to play their second of three consecutive games and used six relievers in last night’s ten-inning contest that they eventually lost. Even if there was a chance that Hamilton’s calf would be healed by later in this series or in the World Series, they might need the extra arm to get through tonight and tomorrow.

Hamilton, 29, wasn’t the most important arm in manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen. Last night’s appearances was just his second of this year’s playoffs. But he was solid during the regular season, making 35 appearances with a 3.82 earned run average. He struck out 25.2% of batters faced, walked 8.2% of them and got grounders on 43.8% of balls in play. He earned one save and 11 holds this year, the latter number coming in third on the team behind Luke Weaver and Tommy Kahnle.

Leiter, 33, had some strong recent results with the Cubs but struggled after a deadline deal that sent him to the Bronx. From the start of 2022 until the trade, he posted a 3.85 ERA in 168 1/3 innings for the Cubs. In that time, he had a 28.9% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 47.8% ground ball rate.

At the end of July, the Yanks sent minor leaguers Ben Cowles and Jack Neely to the Cubs in order to acquire Leiter, but he posted a 4.98 ERA in his 21 appearances for the Yanks after that deal. While many Yankee fans groan at the mere mention of Leiter’s name, the baseball gods were seemingly responsible for a lot of those runs.

As a Yankee, Leiter’s 39% ground ball rate was subpar but his 31.7% strikeout rate was strong and his 8.7% walk rate around average. But he had a .407 batting average on balls in play and a 26.1% homer to fly ball ratio, both of which are unsustainably high. His 2.86 SIERA in that stretch suggests that he was far better than his ERA would have you believe in that small sample.

Leiter was left off the Yankee roster for the ALDS and ALCS but Hamilton’s injury opens the door for him. He and the Yankees will be hoping for better fortune as they look to defeat the Guardians and move on to the World Series. They lead the ALCS two games to one with game four set to begin in Cleveland at 8:08 local time tonight.

Yankees’ Ian Hamilton Headed For MRI With Calf Injury

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Yankees reliever Ian Hamilton left tonight’s Game 3 loss in Cleveland with what the team called left calf tightness. The right-hander told Dan Martin and Greg Joyce of the New York Post that he’ll go for imaging before tomorrow night’s game.

Aaron Boone called upon Hamilton in the sixth inning while New York was trailing 2-1. He issued a leadoff walk to Lane Thomas before Daniel Schneemann hit a grounder to first base. Jon Berti knocked the ball down and flipped to Hamilton covering for the out. Hamilton evidently tweaked his calf while running to the bag. He threw a warm-up pitch after a replay of the call at first. He airmailed the throw and was immediately lifted for Tim Mayza.

Hamilton had a breakout season in 2023 after signing a minor league contract. He tossed 58 innings of 2.64 ERA ball behind a 28.9% strikeout rate and an excellent 55.3% grounder percentage. His follow-up has been more solid than great. Hamilton allowed 3.82 earned runs per nine across 35 regular season appearances. The strikeouts dipped by a few percentage points while his ground-ball rate plummeted to a pedestrian 43.8% clip. The 29-year-old missed a couple months midseason with a lat strain.

New York has carried Hamilton on each of their playoff rosters, though he hasn’t played a huge role. He made one appearance in the Division Series, working 1 1/3 scoreless frames with three strikeouts in their Game 2 loss to the Royals. This was Hamilton’s first action of the ALCS.

If the Yankees need to replace him on the roster, his season will be over. Players taken out midway through a playoff round are ineligible for the following series. The Post writes that one of Mark Leiter Jr. or Clayton Beeter would step into the bullpen as a replacement. Beeter only has three MLB games under his belt. Leiter has a lot more experience and seems likely to get the call.

Bryan Hoch of MLB.com relays (on X) that Boone indicated Leiter was the final cut from the pitching staff when the Yankees set their roster before the series. New York acquired the right-hander from the Cubs at the deadline. Leiter was striking out nearly 35% of batters faced at the time. He has continued to miss a fair number of bats in the Bronx (31.7% strikeout rate) but given up far too much hard contact. Leiter has been tagged for six homers in 21 2/3 innings as a Yankee and has been left off both series rosters to date.

Boone: Yankees Will Be “Creative” With Closer Role

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The Yankees dropped tonight’s rubber match against the Rangers by a 10-6 margin. They’ve lost three straight series overall, dropping two of three against the Nationals, Cardinals and Texas. They had a good chance to secure a series victory and stay ahead of the Orioles in the AL East standings on Tuesday, but Clay Holmes surrendered a walk-off grand slam to Wyatt Langford in a 7-4 defeat.

It was the 11th save attempt which Holmes has squandered this year, three more than any other pitcher. The Yankees stopped short of officially stripping the right-hander of the closer role, yet it seems they’ll move to more of a committee approach in the short term. Before tonight’s game, skipper Aaron Boone told reporters that he’d be “creative” with the ninth inning (X link via Jack Curry of the YES Network). Boone indicated that Holmes remains in the mix for save chances, though it doesn’t appear that he’ll get every one by default.

To Holmes’ credit, he hasn’t pitched poorly overall in spite of the ugly blown save mark. He carries a solid 3.27 ERA over 55 innings. His 25.2% strikeout percentage and 8% walk rate are fine. Opponents have put nearly two-thirds of their batted balls on the ground. Among relievers with 50+ innings, only teammate Tim Hill has gotten grounders at a higher rate. ERA estimators like FIP (2.91) and SIERA (2.82) still suggest Holmes has been an excellent pitcher.

Despite the impressive rate stats, Holmes has found himself walking a tightrope at times throughout the year. He was utterly dominant early in the season. He didn’t allow an earned run until May 20, a stretch of 20 games and as many innings. Holmes carries a 5.14 earned run average through 35 frames since that point. The plus command he showed early on has become far shakier in recent weeks. Holmes is headed to free agency for the first time in his career at year’s end.

His ups and downs are magnified by a bullpen that has been underwhelming lately. Yankee relievers rank 22nd in ERA since the All-Star Break. That’s partially on Holmes, but their deadline pickups of Mark Leiter Jr. and Enyel De Los Santos haven’t panned out. De Los Santos was blasted over five appearances and quickly waived. Leiter has been very homer-prone since landing in the Bronx. Home runs have also been a problem for Luke Weaver and Jake Cousins.

Aside from Holmes, the Yankees have given their highest-leverage work to Tommy Kahnle and Leiter in the second half. Kahnle has pitched well and could pick up some save chances. Boone also left the door open to a potential closing look for either of Luis Gil or Clarke Schmidt (X link via Curry).

Both pitchers are returning from the injured list this weekend. They’ll each occupy a rotation spot for the upcoming set against the Cubs. The Yankees will carry a six-man rotation into next week before deciding whether to bump someone to relief. Nestor Cortes seems the likeliest candidate for a bullpen move, though he doesn’t have the velocity typically associated with a closer. Gil and Schmidt have more prototypical closing stuff.

Yankees Acquire Mark Leiter Jr.

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The Yankees announced that they have acquired right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs. In return, the Cubs will receive infielder Ben Cowles and right-hander Jack Neely. The Yankees had two open 40-man spots and jump to 39, while the Cubs drop down to 38.

Leiter, now 33, has been great for the Cubs over the past few years after a late-bloomer trajectory. The son of Mark Leiter and nephew of Al Leiter, the younger Mark made it to the big leagues by 2017 but didn’t impress in his first tastes of the show. By the end of 2018, he had a 5.53 earned run average in 114 big league innings. He then required Tommy John surgery early in 2019 and was on the shelf for an extended period of time. He signed a minor league deal with the Tigers in 2021 but didn’t get a call to the show.

A minor league deal with the Cubs going into 2022 turned into the opportunity he needed. He was selected to the big league roster by mid-April that year and eventually tossed 65 2/3 innings for the Cubs with a 3.99 ERA. He struck out 25.9% of batters faced while giving out walks at an 8.9% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a 48.9% rate.

Despite that generally strong work, he was nudged off the club’s roster in January of 2023. He had exhausted his final option year and so the Cubs designated him for assignment, with all 29 clubs passing on the chance to grab him off waivers. He elected free agency but re-signed with the Cubs on a minor league deal prior to the next season.

He was added back to the roster for Opening Day and has been a key part of the Chicago bullpen since then. Going back to the start of 2023, he has a 3.75 ERA in 100 2/3 innings. His strikeout rate is up to 30.9% in that time while he still has decent walk and ground ball rates of 8.8% and 47.1% respectively.

This year’s 4.21 ERA doesn’t look pretty but that’s mostly due to a tiny strand rate of 55%, well below the 71.9% league average. Since he’s striking out 34.9% of batters faced and also getting grounders at a 50.6% clip, his 2.11 FIP and 2.42 SIERA suggest he’s been about two runs better than his ERA would have you believe.

The Cubs have been balancing present and future needs at this deadline. Just over a week ago, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said that the club would be prioritizing “2025 and beyond” in their transactions. That didn’t necessarily point to a deadline selloff, as the club then went out and acquired Isaac Paredes from the Rays and Nate Pearson from the Blue Jays, with both of those players having multiple years of control.

But there were also some rumors that they might make some pitching available and there’s a logic to Leiter being moved out. Due to his unusual trajectory, Leiter still has a couple of years of club control remaining after this one. But given his age, the Cubs probably didn’t consider him a core piece of their future-focused agenda and made him available.

Those circumstances are likely also why the win-now Yankees wanted to get him. He only just qualified for arbitration for the first time coming into this season and is making $1.5MM, not much above this year’s $740K league minimum. The Yankees are slated to pay the competitive balance tax for a third straight year and finish well above the top tier. That means they face a 110% tax rate for any new spending, so Leiter’s minimal salary fits in nicely for them, and they can keep him around for two more years beyond this one.

While Leiter is cheap in terms of dollars, the Yankees have paid the price of two prospects to get him. Neely, 24, was an 11th-round pick in the 2021 draft. He’s been exclusively a reliever in his professional career, racking up significant strikeout totals. In 160 1/3 minor league innings overall, he has a 2.75 ERA, 38.8% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate. That includes 41 2/3 innings this year between Double-A and Triple-A with a 2.81 ERA, 36% strikeout rate and 9.1% walk rate. Baseball America currently lists him as the #20 prospect in the Yankees’ system.

Cowles, 24, was a 10th-round pick in 2021 and has played in 88 Double-A games this year. His .294/.376/.472 batting line leads to a strong 141 wRC+, indicating he’s been 41% better than league average. His .340 batting average on balls in play is high but he’s also got strong walk and strikeout rates of 10.3% and 17.7%, respectively. He also has 14 steals and has lined up at the three infield spots to the left of first base.

Both Neely and Cowles are Rule 5 eligible this winter, so the Yankees would have been facing a decision about whether or not to add them to their 40-man roster. Instead, they have cashed them in for an immediate bullpen upgrade, meaning those decisions will now transfer to Chicago.

Rob Zamparelli first reported on X that Leiter was headed to the Yankees. Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN relayed the full trade on X.

Latest On Cubs’ Deadline Plans

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The Cubs swung perhaps the most shocking trade of the summer so far today when they acquired third baseman Isaac Paredes from the Rays in exchange for young slugger Christopher Morel, relief prospect Hunter Bigge, and pitching prospect Ty Johnson. Paredes, as one of the best hitters available this summer, was rumored to be of interest to a number of win-now clubs such as the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mariners, but instead ended up in Chicago with a club that’s just 51-56 last year and recently saw its president of baseball operations admit the club was prioritizing the future with its approach to this year’s deadline.

The addition of Paredes, who is controllable through the end of the 2027 season, doesn’t necessarily go against that stated ethos. The same can be said for the club’s acquisition of Blue Jays reliever Nate Pearson, who is controlled through the end of the 2026 campaign. It appears the Cubs may be interested in adding pieces that aren’t set to remain with the club long-term, however, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested this afternoon that the Cubs are among the teams showing interest in Giants lefty Blake Snell. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner got off to a rough start this year but has begun to right the ship in recent weeks, leading The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal to suggest yesterday that teams view Snell as likely to opt out of the remainder of his contract at season’s end.

That reported interest in Snell is somewhat surprising, particularly given the fact that the Cubs have seemingly been fielding interest on veteran right-hander Jameson Taillon in recent weeks. The starting rotation has been an undeniable strength for the Cubs this year, as their 3.72 rotation ERA ranks 6th in the majors thanks primarily to elite performances from Taillon, Justin Steele, and Shota Imanaga. While adding a pitcher of Snell’s caliber would surely bolster the club’s rotation and could even allow the club to deal Taillon without suffering a short-term dip in production, the fact that clubs seemingly view Snell as more likely than not to head back to free agency this fall seems to directly contradict the club’s stated plan to focus on the future this summer.

Regardless of what the Cubs’ plans are regarding Taillon or a possible pursuit of Snell, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported prior to today’s trade for Paredes that the Cubs are “listening” to offers regarding almost anyone on the roster but are focusing on trying to trade from their bullpen mix. Per Sharma, four relief arms in particularly are most frequently brought up by contenders interested in dealing with the Cubs over the coming days: right-handers Hector Neris, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. as well as southpaw Drew Smyly. Of the quartet, Sharma suggests that veterans Smyly and Neris are the most likely to move, as each could become a free agent at season’s end.

Neris, who has posted an uneven season with a 3.68 ERA and 4.54 FIP this year, has a $9MM team option in his contract that will convert into a $9MM player option in the event that he reaches either 60 appearances or 45 games finished this year. With 39 appearances and 27 games finished so far this year, both benchmarks are within the realm of possibility, and Sharma suggests that this aspect of his contract “complicates” the possibility of a trade. Smyly, who sports a 2.79 ERA and 4.52 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work this year, has a much less complicated contractual situation; his contract comes with a $10MM mutual option that is certain to be declined by one side or the other in favor of a $2.5MM buyout.

While Neris and Smyly seem unlikely to command massive returns, The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, and Katie Woo recently discussed the hefty price tags that have come with controllable relievers this season. Mooney, Sammon, Woo, and Sharma all believe that the Cubs intend to deal Leiter and Merryweather only if they can leverage that sellers’ market for cost-controlled relief arms, with Sharma noting that the asking price is “high” for Leiter in particular. The 33-year-old’s 4.37 ERA this year is unspectacular, but his massive 34.5% strikeout rate, a sparkling 2.18 FIP, and the fact that he can be controlled through the end of the 2026 season all could make him a very appealing addition for contenders in search of relief help. As for Merryweather, the 32-year-old has been injured much of this year but is now healthy, sports a 3.33 ERA and 3.44 FIP since joining the Cubs prior to the 2023 campaign, and comes with the same two additional season of club control that Leiter does.

Another consideration for the Cubs, whether they’re adding or subtracting from the current roster, figures to be the luxury tax. Chicago currently sports a luxury tax payroll of just under $234MM according to RosterResource, a figure that puts them a little more than $3MM under the first threshold of the luxury tax. The addition of a player with a hefty salary like Snell would surely put them well beyond that threshold, while dealing a player like Taillon or even a less expensive relief arm like Neris or Smyly would likely offer the Cubs additional breathing room below the tax threshold. Given the fact that Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts suggested back in February that the “natural” place for the club’s payroll to land was right up against the tax threshold, it would be something of a shock for ownership to greenlight spending beyond the luxury tax in a year where the club evidently is not expecting to make the postseason.

Hoyer: Cubs Prioritizing “2025 And Beyond” At Deadline

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This morning, The Athletic reported that the Cubs did not anticipate buying at the deadline. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer essentially confirmed as much in a chat with reporters just before tonight’s matchup with the Brewers.

Hoyer said the front office will approach the deadline with an eye toward to the future. “Where we are right now, I would have to say that moves only for 2024 – unless things change over the next week – we probably won’t do a lot of moves that only help us for this year,” Chicago’s baseball ops leader said (link via Jesse Rogers of ESPN). “If moves help us for 2025 and beyond I think we’re exceptionally well positioned.”

While Hoyer left open the slight caveat that the situation could change this week, there’s not much ambiguity in how he expects to handle the deadline. He spoke frankly about the team’s “poor position” with regards to this season. “We simply dug a hole with underperformance for two months. That doesn’t affect how I view the organization or how I view things going forward but it certainly affects 2024,” Hoyer said.

It’s clear the Cubs aren’t going to pursue any impending free agents. Hoyer didn’t term Chicago’s approach as buying or selling. That leaves open the possibility of trying to acquire MLB talent that is under team control beyond this season. While that’s not unprecedented (the Reds’ acquisition of Trevor Bauer and the Mets’ deal for Marcus Stroman in 2019 are examples of teams acquiring controllable players at the deadline despite being out of contention), it’s not common. The Cubs would need to outbid teams that are motivated to land those players for both a potential playoff push this summer and future seasons.

Chicago’s farm system is regarded as one of the strongest in the league. That gives Hoyer and his staff the ammunition to make a deal for a controllable player of note, but the likelier outcome is that the Cubs will just move a few short-term veterans. Hoyer shot down any suggestion of a complete teardown, saying it’s “not going to be an option so (there’s) no point in going through the hypothetical.” That makes it unlikely they’d deal core pieces who are under contract or team control beyond this season (e.g. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Ian Happ, Michael Busch).

Prioritizing 2025 would ordinarily put a team’s rentals on the table, but the Cubs don’t have much to offer in that regard. Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly (whose deal contains a $2.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option) and recent minor league signee Jorge López are the only true rentals. Hendricks is playing on a $16.5MM salary and has an earned run average pushing 7.00. While he has pitched better lately after a dismal start to the season, there’d be minimal interest. The Cubs could try to pay down almost all of the contract to find a trade partner. Hendricks also has full no-trade rights after reaching 10 years of MLB service (at least the last five of which have been with his current team) earlier this season.

Smyly has a 2.92 ERA across 37 innings in a long relief capacity. That solid run prevention isn’t supported by mediocre strikeout and walk rates (21% and 10.2%, respectively). Between his $8.5MM salary and the aforementioned option buyout, there’s likely to be limited interest in the veteran left-hander.

Cody Bellinger has the ability to opt out of the final two years and $50MM on his contract. He has had a fine but unexceptional season, hitting .269/.331/.410 across 344 plate appearances. That’d be a difficult contract to move even if Bellinger were healthy, and he went on the injured list a couple weeks ago with a broken finger.

If the Cubs wanted to more or less run things back in 2025, they’d be in for a very quiet deadline. Yet even if they’re not likely to move long-term core pieces, Chicago could entertain offers on role players who are controllable beyond this season. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the Yankees and Red Sox were looking at starter Jameson Taillon, who’ll make $18MM annually between 2025-26. Rogers reports that the Cubs have also gotten interest in third baseman/DH Christopher Morel and relievers Héctor Neris, Mark Leiter Jr. and Tyson Miller.

Morel, 25, is under team control through 2028. He’ll be a borderline candidate for the Super Two cutoff for early arbitration next offseason. The Cubs are certainly under no financial pressure to move him, but it’s possible they’re prepared to move on if another team views Morel as a regular. Morel is a good athlete with big power upside who has never found a defensive home. Chicago has unsuccessfully tried him in second base and throughout the outfield in previous seasons. They’ve given him 562 innings at third base this year, hoping his top-of-the-scale arm strength would work at the position. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have each given him very poor grades for his stint at the hot corner.

This also hasn’t been a great season for Morel at the plate. While he has 18 homers, he’s hitting .202 with a .304 on-base mark. It’s a step down from the .241/.311/.471 career slash line that Morel carried into the season. While that’s clearly not ideal, it belies some intriguing developments from a process perspective. Morel has upped his walk rate by a couple points while dramatically slicing his strikeouts. After fanning in over 30% of his plate appearances for his first two seasons, he’s striking out 23.8% of the time this year. An unsustainably low .221 average on balls in play has kept that from materializing into better results.

Even if the Cubs expect Morel’s offensive performance to normalize with an uptick in his average on balls in play, the lack of a defensive fit makes him a difficult player to value. The Cubs could hope to turn third base over to last year’s first-round pick Matt Shaw as soon as next season. They don’t have much in the way of short-term alternatives. If the Cubs traded Morel, they’d probably rely on Miles Mastrobuoni and Patrick Wisdom to cover the position for the rest of the season.

The Cubs should be open to offers on anyone in their bullpen. Neris has handled the ninth inning since Adbert Alzolay went down with a forearm strain. The offseason signee has been shaky, walking 16.1% of opponents and blowing four saves in 17 attempts. Neris had a 1.71 ERA for the Astros last season, but that’s up two runs this year thanks to his control woes. The 35-year-old righty is playing on a $9MM salary and has a matching option for next year. That’s currently a team option but would convert to a player option if Neris pitches in 24 more games.

Given his inconsistency, the Cubs aren’t likely to want Neris back at that price point. They’d presumably be happy to find a trade partner, but the potential for being saddled with a $9MM player option if Neris hits his vesting marker could make other teams wary. There’s less risk with regards to Leiter and Miller. The former is striking out 34.4% of opponents with a 50.6% grounder rate across 34 innings. He’s playing on a $1.5MM salary and is under arbitration control through 2026. Miller, whom the Cubs acquired from Seattle in May, has broken out with a 2.04 ERA while striking out nearly 26% of opponents across 35 1/3 frames.

Whether the Cubs get compelling enough offers to move anyone from that group remains to be seen. They’re not entirely buried in the Wild Card standings, sitting 3.5 games back of the last playoff spot (currently held by the Mets). With four intervening teams to jump, the front office has decided they’re at best a long shot to make the postseason. How much they’re willing to reshape the roster with the ’25 campaign in mind will be one of the bigger questions of the upcoming week.

Cubs’ Yency Almonte To Undergo Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery

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7:18 pm: Almonte has chosen to undergo shoulder surgery, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Cubs reliever is expected miss the rest of the 2024 season.

12:28 pm:Yency Almonte hasn’t pitched since May 7 due to a right shoulder strain, and continued discomfort in his shoulder has led to a possible crossroads in how the Cubs right-hander plans to deal with the injury.  Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) that Almonte recently received a less-than-positive second opinion on his ailing shoulder, and is “thinking about what to do here” in possibly pursuing surgery.  For now, Almonte has been shut down from throwing while he recovers and decides on his next step.

The exact nature of the surgery isn’t yet known, but it would almost certainly seem that Almonte would miss the rest of the 2024 season, and could potentially be facing an absence of up to a year, based on timelines of more serious shoulder-related procedures undergone by other pitchers in the past.  Whatever the case, it’s a tough outcome for Almonte, who was posting some solid numbers before going on the IL.

Acquired from the Dodgers alongside Michael Busch last January, Almonte had a 3.45 ERA over 15 2/3 innings and 17 appearances for the Cubs.  His 11.9% walk rate was on the high side and Almonte was benefiting from a .222 BABIP, but a 29.9% strikeout rate and just one homer allowed in those 15 2/3 frames.  After relying heavily on a sweeper in 2022-23, Almonte was using his sinker and sweeper in more or less equal measure this season, which also helped set up his 94mph fastball.

Analytics aside, Almonte’s 2024 success could’ve also perhaps been inevitable because it is an even year.  The right-hander has yo-yo’d between good and bad years throughout his seven MLB seasons, with the trend of quality numbers in the even years and struggles in the odd years.  Case in point, Almonte’s Dodgers tenure included an 1.02 ERA in 35 1/3 innings in 2022, followed up by a 5.06 ERA over 48 innings with Los Angeles in 2023 before a knee sprain ended his season in mid-August.

Unfortunately, the injury bug now seems to have thrown a wrench into Almonte’s usual career pattern.  He was already moved off the Cubs’ 40-man roster when he was shifted to the 60-day IL last week.  The Cubs have another year of arbitration control over Almonte for the 2025 season, and while a non-tender is certainly possible depending on his health status, Chicago might still issue him a contract since Almonte would receive only a minimal raise on his $1.9MM salary for 2024.

Almonte is one of five relievers on the Cubs’ injured list, and relief pitching was already an issue for Chicago even before such a big chunk of the bullpen was sidelined.  On the positive side, Counsell and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy recently told MLB.com and other media that Julian Merryweather is nearing a minor league rehab assignment, and Mark Leiter Jr. threw a 30-pitch bullpen session Wednesday and might be able to return next week without going on a rehab stint.

Cubs Place Mark Leiter Jr. On 15-Day Injured List

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The Cubs announced that right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right forearm strain.  Left-hander Luke Little has been called up from Triple-A Iowa to take Leiter’s spot on the 26-man roster.

After posting a sterling 0.90 ERA over his first 20 innings of the season, Leiter’s performance has dipped sharply, with a ghastly 15.58 ERA over 8 2/3 innings in his last 12 appearances.  Leiter’s last four outings specifically saw him touched up for eight earned runs over 3 1/3 innings of work, so it seems possible that these games might’ve been impacted by the forearm strain if Leiter had been trying to pitch through some discomfort.

All in all, Leiter has a 5.34 ERA over 28 2/3 innings this season, yet with a much more respectable set of secondary metrics.  Leiter’s SIERA is only 2.96, as a .338 BABIP and a 55% strand rate have been working against him.  On the plus side, Leiter has a strong 48.7% grounder rate, quality hard-contract numbers, and a 30.2% strikeout rate that sits in the 91st percentile of all pitchers.

Leiter’s walk rate is below average, but that was also true during the 2022-23 seasons, when he emerged as a very effective weapon out of Chicago’s bullpen.  Leiter posted a 5.53 ERA in 114 innings with the Phillies and Blue Jays in 2017-18, but then didn’t pitch another big league inning for three full seasons, due to a Tommy John surgery, the pandemic-shortened nature of the 2020 season, and a stint in the Tigers’ farm system in 2021 that didn’t result in a call-up to the Show.

The Cubs signed Leiter to a minor league deal prior to the 2022 season, and then another minors contract in the 2022-23 offseason.  The moves have become nice hidden-gem discoveries for the team, as Leiter had a 3.75 ERA and 27.2% strikeout rate over 132 innings in 2022-23, albeit with an 8.9% walk rate.  Working first as a swingman, Leiter became a key set-up man behind closer Adbert Alzolay last season.

Unfortunately, Leiter now joins Alzolay and Julian Merryweather on the injured list, as the Cubs are without their three top bullpen arms.  Merrywether is expected to return from a stress fracture in his ribs by around the All-Star break, while Alzolay’s return from a right flexor strain is still up the air.  Details on Leiter’s forearm strain haven’t yet been revealed, but naturally any kind of a forearm issue is a big concern, particularly for a pitcher who already has one Tommy John procedure on his record.

These injuries and a lack of performance overall has made the Cubs’ bullpen into a weak link on the roster, though not much has gone right for the team over what has been a disastrous six weeks of baseball.  Beginning the season strong with a 24-17 record, Chicago has stumbled to a 13-23 mark over its last 39 games.  The NL’s parity has meant that the Cubs are still just two games out of a wild card slot despite a 37-40 record, yet Chicago will need to regain momentum quickly before the team is perhaps forced into some hard decisions at the trade deadline.

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