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Twins Notes: Gray, Maeda, Keuchel, Larnach, Kirilloff, Thielbar

By Mark Polishuk | July 30, 2023 at 7:12pm CDT

A five-game losing streak has dropped the Twins’ record to 54-53, and their AL Central lead has shrunk to a half-game advantage over the Guardians.  Caught in an unusual position of both trying to win the division and perhaps reload the roster for a better shot at contending in 2024, the Twins appear to be flexible with their plans heading into the trade deadline, as The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports that the club is at least listening to offers about starters Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda.  However, “they’d need to be blown away to make a deal that potentially harms their own postseason chances,” Hayes writes, since starting pitching has been such a key plank of the Twins’ success this year.

Reports from earlier this week suggested that Minnesota had at least considered moving Maeda, and that the Twins were getting interest in general about their rotation depth.  Since it would count as a major shock if any of Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober were traded, pending free agents Gray and Maeda seem like far more viable trade candidates, even if the odds of either moving don’t seem too high.

As Hayes notes, there’s no harm for Minnesota in testing the market for Gray or Maeda, just in case a team desperate for starting pitching is willing to overpay as other options are removed from the board as the deadline approaches.  Re-signing both Gray and Maeda this winter doesn’t seem likely whatsoever, and it seems quite possible that the Twins might let both veteran pitchers walk in free agency.  Ergo, exploring trade opportunities now is a logical tactic, especially if another team is willing to offer the right-handed hitting or bullpen help that the Twins are currently looking to obtain.

Dallas Keuchel has looked great for Triple-A Saint Paul since signing a minor league deal with the Twins back in June, as the former AL Cy Young Award winner has a 1.13 ERA over 32 innings.  Since Keuchel has an opt-out clause in his contract on August 1 (trade deadline day), some kind of decision is coming soon, and Keuchel could be the logical replacement if Minnesota did move Gray or Maeda.  In terms of Keuchel himself as a trade chip, Hayes writes that there is only “minimal interest” from other clubs, which isn’t surprising given how Keuchel’s MLB results have so badly tailed off in the last two seasons.  The southpaw has a 6.35 ERA over 222 2/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2021 campaign, and he has yet to see any big league action in 2023.

Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said earlier this week that the club’s left-handed hitting outfielders were drawing interest, and Hayes reports that Trevor Larnach in particular has been on the radar of the Mets and Padres.  Larnach is only a couple of years removed from being a top-100 prospect, though he has a modest .223/.315/.380 slash line over 669 career plate appearances.  This lack of performance and a season-ending core muscle surgery in 2022 have kept Larnach from really establishing himself in the majors, not to mention how the Twins’ outfield depth has led to Larnach spending a lot of extra time at Triple-A.

Since Larnach is only 26 and has a limited sample size of MLB experience, it makes sense why the Padres, Mets, and probably several other teams would want to bet on a post-hype breakout.  It’s worth noting that Larnach hadn’t hit very much in Triple-A prior to this season, and even his .234/.363/.431 slash line over 157 PA for Saint Paul in 2023 is only decent, rather than a clear sign that Larnach has nothing more to prove in the minors.

With the Mets already looking ahead to 2024, a hypothetical New York/Minnesota trade package could include a right-handed hitting outfielder like Tommy Pham or Mark Canha, or reliever Brooks Raley.  All would essentially be rental pickups, though Canha and Raley are controllable through club options for the 2024 season.  Raley has pitched well enough that his $6.5MM club option ($1MM buyout) looks like a good bet to be exercise by the Mets, Twins, or whatever team might own his rights after the deadline.

Of course, injuries can always change the equation for any team as the deadline approaches, and the Twins placed Alex Kirilloff on the 10-day injured list today due to a right shoulder strain.  Caleb Thielbar was activated from the 15-day IL in the corresponding move, with the left-hander returning after missing close to two months with an oblique strain.  This came on the heels of a previous IL stint due to another oblique problem, resulting in Thielbar making only one big league appearance since May 6.

Kirilloff has been trying to play through the injury for several days, as manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune) that Kirilloff was hurt diving for a ball.  Kirilloff is “just not able to swing the bat right now because he’s feeling some weakness in his shoulder,” Baldelli said, so the decision was made to put the first baseman on the IL for a full rest.

Wrist problems have plagued Kirilloff in the past, and his recovery from a wrist surgery last year delayed his 2023 debut until May 6.  Finally healthy and given an extended chance to play, Kirilloff looked to be having a bit of a breakout season, with a very solid 124 wRC+ to show from his .270/.357/.442 slash line over 258 plate appearances while mostly playing as Minnesota’s regular first baseman.  Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo are likely to be platooned at first base while Kirilloff is out, and if the Twins get any indication over the next two days that Kirilloff might be facing an extended absence, first base help might be added to the club’s deadline checklist.

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Minnesota Twins New York Mets Notes San Diego Padres Transactions Alex Kirilloff Caleb Thielbar Dallas Keuchel Kenta Maeda Sonny Gray Trevor Larnach

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View Comments (37)
Post a Comment

37 Comments

  1. DodgerDan

    2 years ago

    Would be pretty nice if the Dodgers brought Maeda back.

    1
    Reply
  2. Baldkid

    2 years ago

    Twins are going to lose every playoff game just like they have since about the time Lincoln was in office, might as well sell some pieces for a stronger team next year when Travis Lee is on the team. It doesn’t matter if they get swept with or without Gray or anyone else.

    signed

    A Twins Fan

    3
    Reply
    • Johnny Vegas

      2 years ago

      Travis Lee.. that really brought me back to some poor front office management.

      3
      Reply
      • Baldkid

        2 years ago

        that is 100% on me, meant Brooks Lee. I’m so disgusted, my mind is scramble and got the Lee’s mixed up… 😉

        2
        Reply
        • ZeusMacalester

          2 years ago

          A true fan!

          Reply
    • pgapro06

      2 years ago

      The Twins do have a couple of World Series wins since Lincoln was in office.

      3
      Reply
      • martras

        2 years ago

        They’ve also set the all time major sports franchise record for consecutive playoff losses. They haven’t won a playoff game in 19 years. Those World Series’ you speak of are from more than 30 years ago, as well. Basically like saying the Vikings have 4 Superbowl appearances!

        1
        Reply
      • Baldkid

        2 years ago

        Lighten up Francis, it was tongue in cheek….

        Reply
        • ZeusMacalester

          2 years ago

          I don’t think you know what tongue in cheek is.

          Reply
        • CaptainHooks

          2 years ago

          It depends on which cheek you tongue is in.

          Reply
  3. citizen

    2 years ago

    “they’d need to be blown away to make a deal that potentially harms their own postseason chances”
    ask the mets. they got that covered in both free agent signings and trades.
    .

    2
    Reply
  4. braveshomer

    2 years ago

    Sonny Gray wouldn’t be too bad in a a Braves uni…he’s been unlucky this year but healthy

    Reply
    • martras

      2 years ago

      Unlucky? 3.22 ERA vs. 3.83 xFIP

      2
      Reply
  5. Rsox

    2 years ago

    Kiriloff might just be the most fragile First Baseman in Baseball

    1
    Reply
    • phantomofdb

      2 years ago

      Why does everyone spell Kirilloff with one L in the comments. every time

      Reply
  6. fletch

    2 years ago

    Falvey is clueless and needs to go.

    3
    Reply
    • Samuel

      2 years ago

      fletch;

      He’s the same as Mozeliak in St. Louis…..

      Ownership is happy with him. He keeps changing direction every 2-3 years but always gets ownerships OK to do it. When it doesn’t work out they come up with another scenario – always “Filling Holes”. Yankees are much the same, although Cashman and Hal seem to be partners running things, while Falvey gets some interference/help (see Carlos Correa signings) while it appears that DeWitt, Jr. asks a few questions then rubber stamps Mozeliak’s next grand scheme.

      Reply
      • martras

        2 years ago

        Ownership is not happy with Falvey. Joe Pohlad made it pretty clear the Twins are falling well short of expectations. Pohlad suggested advancing in the playoffs was now the expectation, not just making it into the playoffs. He also mentioned ownership’s patience philosophy might be changing.

        Reply
  7. Jacksson13

    2 years ago

    The Padres will have to overpay the Twins on any deal that is made due to the “Paddack Clause” which will be included in any deal between the two teams.

    “The Minnesota Twins have acquired right-handed pitchers Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagan from the San Diego Padres in exchange for All-Star left-handed pitcher Taylor Rogers and outfielder Brent Rooker..
    The Twins also will receive a player to be named later (Brayan Medina) under terms of the deal announced Thursday. The Padres will get $6.6 million in cash, according to multiple reports..”

    1
    Reply
    • Foxtrot Unicorn Charlie Kilo

      2 years ago

      Idk how it’s the Padres fault he got hurt after 5 games and 22.1 innings needing TJS for the 2nd time in his career.

      Reply
    • ZeusMacalester

      2 years ago

      Yeah, the reason a starting pitcher with two years of control and a reliever with two years of control were available for a reliever with one year of control was because that starting pitcher had injury concerns. The Twins were well aware that Paddack had a significant chance to get hurt. They made the deal because they thought it was still worth it. They were probably right?

      Reply
  8. AL B DAMNED

    2 years ago

    Mets interested Trevor Larnach a lefty bat???
    What will they do with Vogelbach and would they cancel the Vogelbach Bobble Belly Givaway?

    1
    Reply
    • Cleon Jones

      2 years ago

      Agree, not sure why Mets would be interested in Larnach unless they are planning on clearing space for next season. Larnach’s #’s scream mediocre, and Mets, as we all are learning, are not great at squeezing production from their talent, young or vets. As for Twins, they should be talking to Arizona about Gray or Maeda.

      Reply
    • Steve(shs22)

      2 years ago

      Trevor Larnach is not going anywhere

      The guy is a flat out hitter , he’s been extremely unlucky this yr. Babip ect.

      Reply
      • Chris G.

        2 years ago

        So far in the majors he’s been a flat, out hitter.

        6
        Reply
      • bluetooth2

        2 years ago

        He fits in the Met lineup 220 hitter

        Reply
      • cadagan

        2 years ago

        @Steve.
        He hits fat outs? I dont get it.

        Reply
      • martras

        2 years ago

        @Steve(shs22) The year 2021 wants its Trevor Larnach scouting report back. Larnach can’t hit sliders, sweepers, sinkers or changeups because he can’t identify the pitches. He mashes 4 seamers and holds his own against the curveball. It adds up to extremely poor contact rates, high swinging strike rates and high called strike rates. Larnach’s contact rate is 64.3%, which ranks 335th of 339 MLB hitters with 150+ plate appearances this year. This is despite the fact Larnach rarely swings at pitches in general. He just can’t recognize them.

        Btw, his BABIP is .319 this year… That’s well above MLB average and just about his career BABIP rate as well. Larnach has never been unlucky.. Larnach is a AAAA corner outfielder.

        Reply
      • ZeusMacalester

        2 years ago

        You know that people will look things up right? Like you can’t just make things up. The league average BABIP is .293. Larnach is at .319 this year. He’s been lucky, not unlucky. He can’t hit an MLB breaking ball.

        If the Twins can solve their issues for this year’s squad and only give up Larnach, they should do it.

        Reply
  9. CrikesAlready

    2 years ago

    The Padres do not need another light-hitting outfielder.

    Sheesh.

    Reply
  10. CaptainHooks

    2 years ago

    I wonder if Miquel Sano might be available to come in and play first base for the Twins.
    Sano strikes out less than Joey Gallo, and might be a cheap free agent pick-up.

    Reply
    • martras

      2 years ago

      By UZR stats, Sano may literally be the worst 1B to have ever played MLB. Pretty sure he’s going to retire since no MLB team was interested in him, even on a MiLB contract this year and Sano hasn’t shown up in Korea or Japan.

      1
      Reply
      • ZeusMacalester

        2 years ago

        Sano is currently recovering from injury. He wasn’t really on the market for anyone this offseason. I’m not sure if he will or will not going forward but the lack of a MiLB contract or Japan/Korea contract is less about his ability and more about injuries and motivation.

        Reply
        • martras

          2 years ago

          He was “maybe” recovering from his knee injury during the 2022 campaign when he held a open workout for teams this last February. Unfortunately for him, nobody really attended or even wanted to sign him to a MiLB contract. The Twins were very displeased with Sano’s conditioning last year and reading between the lines, it’s easy to speculate his poor conditioning and eating habits contributed to his slow recovery.

          cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/miguel-sano-pl…

          CBS Sports just published an update on him the other day. Guess he’s going to play some winter ball in the hopes of attracting more interest next year. Newsflash. It probably won’t.

          Reply
  11. Tomas7

    2 years ago

    Lamarck a .220 hitter in AAA, he’ll be lucky to stay above the Mendoza line if he goes to the Mets. The Mets need a much better hitting coach.

    Reply
    • Tomas7

      2 years ago

      Sorr, Lanarch.

      Reply
  12. nosake

    2 years ago

    Tommy Pham = poison pill.

    Reply

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