Aug. 29: Via Acee, Darvish said after last night’s game that he was awaiting results from an MRI but is optimistic that he’ll be able to return to the Padres in 2023.
Aug. 28: The Padres announced that right-hander Yu Darvish has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to August 26, due to right elbow inflammation. Righty Matt Waldron was recalled in a corresponding move.
At this point, it’s unclear what kind of absence the club is expecting from Darvish. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the righty had spoken of fatigue after his start on Friday, though there hasn’t been any kind of firm update from the team. Even if the issue is minor, the calendar figures to be a factor, with just over a month remaining on the schedule.
It’s been a frustrating season for both Darvish and the Padres, with the overall results misaligned with the underlying numbers in both cases. For Darvish as an individual, he has a 4.56 earned run average on the year, a big jump from last year’s 3.10 figure. But his 24.6% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate are both above league average. However, his .319 batting average on balls in play and 71.3% strand rate are both significantly less fortunate than last year’s marks of .250 and and 78.2%. His rate of fly balls leaving the yard also jumped from 9.6% to 13.5%.
His 4.04 FIP suggests he’s been better than his ERA might indicate, but that’s likely little comfort to him or the Padres, as the whole club has been undercut by a similar discrepancy this year. Their +53 run differential is the fifth-best in the National League, and yet they have a record of 61-70 that places them eight games out of a playoff spot, well behind several clubs with far worse run differentials.
It’s not the season that was hoped for in San Diego, as they spent aggressively this offseason to try to build off a strong 2022 campaign that saw them reach the NLCS. Part of that aggressive spending was giving Darvish a six-year, $108MM extension that runs through 2028, which will be his age-41 season. Though the Friars were likely aware that could hurt them in the long run, they wanted to lock him up while he was still throwing well and the club’s competitive window seemed to be wide open.
There’s still some time for the club to salvage the season but the odds are against them, with FanGraphs giving them just a 2.5% chance of cracking the playoffs at this point. Despite a somewhat down season from Darvish, losing him to the IL for the next couple of weeks isn’t ideal, as Joe Musgrove is already on the IL and could be shut down if the club doesn’t get back in the race. Since Darvish won’t be eligible to return until mid-September, perhaps the same is true of him, though that’s not clear at this point.
For now, the Padres will proceed with a rotation of Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha and Pedro Avila, with one opening available. Rich Hill’s last appearance was out of the bullpen but perhaps he will be slotted back into the rotation. Waldron has been starting in the minors and could be another option and the same goes for Jay Groome, who is on the 40-man.
Looking to the long-term, a bounceback from Darvish next year will be key for the Padres, as there’s plenty of uncertainty in their rotation. Snell and Hill are set to become free agents while Lugo and Wacha both have contract options that could lead to them hitting the open market as well. That leaves Musgrove and Darvish the two building blocks with three potential openings.
Not good for Yu
Yu Darvish’s cousin, Whirling Dervish, was hoping for at least a .500 season. What happened?
Dad, is that you?
This is a lot like the situation with Ohtani. You could see the velocity and effectiveness dropping
Yes Yu knew something was wrong
It wouldn’t surprise me at all, to see MLB teams begin trending towards using many of their starting pitchers – only starting one time a week. In the long run that could extend the healthy careers of a number of the players. That’s what happens in the minors, along with the abbreviated pitch counts.
Plus you pay the starters less
Not another Tommy John situation!!! Does Major League Baseball need to overhaul how pitchers are managed so they aren’t dropping like flies from 2nd and 3rd TJ surgeries??
(BTW I may be hallucinating but it seemed like when I was a kid in the 80’s 90’s that the big pitching injury at that time seemed to be torn rotator cuffs. ….and now that is something I never see befall any pitchers. Meh, Probably just mis-remembering…)
My recollection is the same as yours.
High velo pitching man. Better MRI results today so a damaged UCL is much easier to diagnose. Guys then with bummed elbows simply faded away into retirement without a 24/7 news cycle. TJS has def become a norm and I only see the numbers going up moving forward. Salaries are way up so going max effort to score a decent one-year deal can set a pitcher’s family up for life.
YBC not only sets a player up for life. As far as the team goes, if a player completely blows out his arm before he gets too deep in arbitration, all the better. Just call up the next guy who’s throwing 100 mph for league minimum.
You’re not mis-remembering. That’s exactly the way it was, and you have to wonder why that is. I shredded my rotator cuff in college and chose not to get the surgery. It only took 15 years to heal naturally, but I could throw a lot harder afterward. Today it’s become the norm to expect every pitcher to have 2 TJs in their career.
Look at today’s pitchers form. Their follow through looks awful and painful to me. Not like what I remember watching Koufax, Seaver, Drysdale, Ryan, Gibson, Carlton, etc, etc. I don’t think kids, little league through college, are being taught how to use their whole body. Their legs, back, arm position. Pitching now is about how hard can you throw it. The above pitchers I mentioned all threw hard, but they used their entire body!
I think teaching a generation of kids the slide step is part of it too. Less use of lower body and legs to throw. Focus on quick compact delivery rather than fluid motion.
You nailed it. You don’t see a full windup and follow through anymore. A lot of funky side step type of deliveries that are cranking out the arm. I think Yu needs to get a good knuckleball in his toolbox if he’s going to get through the age 41 year of his contract
More often than not you have pitchers who have a similar “windup” and delivery as Mike Clevinger. So much wasted energy with those mechanics. The leg whip and arm recoil make me cringe every time I see it. If pitching instructors began teaching the drop and drive method made popular by Seaver, there would be far fewer injuries, AND pitchers would actually finish in a much better fielding position. When Luis Castillo finishes his back is to the plate. Pitching instructors think that’s a good idea?
In the 60s pitchers threw 300+ innings and not one had Tommy John surgery.
There WAS no Tommy John until the 1970’s. Back in the 60’s their careers were just over. That is why average time in MLB for pitchers was half what it is today.
They need to put all the SPs on the IL for the rest of the year and just pray that they are halfway decent in 24
If Snell doesn’t return, whom do we sign? We may need 1+ more SPs anyway…
@gwynn. Cubs would be probably quite happy to give you either Smyly or Taillon – just for the asking. And they’d pay part of their salary.
Snell is definitely a free agent. Lugo probably opts out as well. Wacha is a question mark because of consistently being injured every year. Can he beat the $18.5 million player option in free agency?
Padres need to pick up or re-sign at least 2 starters this offseason.
5 more years of that idiot. Enjoy!
I don’t find pleasure and players being injured, but it’s mildly amusing how all those Padres fans were defending all those Preller extensions before the season. Just about all of them have been bad in year 1.
Padre fans that defend Preller make my head hurt.
Success in baseball is very easy to gauge, you either win games or you don’t.
AJ Preller is not a success.
Some Padre fans just don’t seem to get it.
You have to wonder at what point Seidler cuts bait on Preller. He still hasn’t won anything despite spending like a drunken sailor. I predict he not only keeps him, but he backs him in throwing even more money at Snell, Hader, and Soto this winter PLUS making a run at Ohtani.
I bet they fire Melvin too. Keeping Preller and allowing him to blame it all on the manager AGAIN is beyond insane.
2 playoffs in 3 seasons puts Preller in rare company. Only a handful of other teams that did that.
He put a winning team in his manager’s hands only to see them give up on Melvin. Most of the players underperformed. The responsibility for that almost always falls on the manager’s shoulders.
Anyone willing to put the blame on Bob Melvin and defend AJ Preller doesn’t know a damn thing about baseball.
Look at both of their track records. Preller is a fraud who wins over weak minded fans with shiny things.
2 playoffs in 3 seasons. What part of that don’t you understand?
That you don’t get that shows its you that doesn’t understand baseball. So tired of your whiny BS.
List of teams that have 2 playoffs in 3 seasons currently (1/3 of MLB LOL):
Astros
Yankees
Guardians
Blue Jays
White Sox
Rays
Dodgers
Braves
Cardinals
Brewers
The Rays, Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Cardinals & Braves have in fact made the playoffs 3 of the last 3.
So much for Preller being in “rare” company.
As previously stated, Preller wins over small minded fans with shiny things. So if you want to pledge allegiance to him, good on you………
“2 playoffs in 3 seasons”..You’re cherry picking; In actuality the Pads have made the playoffs, what 3 or 4 times in the last 20+ years? And even then, one of those “playoffs”(2020) was an expanded, shortened 60-game “season”, where half the teams in baseball made the playoffs that year.
The Pads mismanage assets just like the Angels. They are like drunken sailors with a “no limit” credit card. The Pads never needed Bogarts and that 280 million could’ve been better spent on a CF that can hit(Nimmo or even Jose Siri were available)and maybe a 1bman and bullpen.
Good point.
Would the 0.8 WAR difference between Nimmo and Grisham have been worth the $18 million difference in salary?
Jose Siri is not as good as Grisham and since he wasn’t a free agent would have cost prospects.
That $280 million might have been spent better, but Nimmo and Siri were not the better solution.
If Bogaerts repeated his 5.9 WAR 2022 season or even his 5.2 WAR average over the previous 4 full seasons, no one would be saying anything about his signing now.
Peter Seidler’s vast fortune has ties to the O’Malley family selling the Los Angeles Dodgers.
If you recall, things were very dark after that sale.
Could this be karma? Could the Padres be suffering because Peter Seidler has money from the very wrong sale of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Owners after the O’Malley family included Newscorp and Frank McCourt… Yikes!
Peter Seidler made his money by making other investors money. None of it came from the sale of the Dodgers
His uncle might have.
I say let ’em tack the balls. That should relieve a lot of the problems.
It’s heading towards pre-tacked balls obviously but MLB moves at a glacial pace when implementing new rules or concepts. We just gotta wait for it to happen. Look how long it’s taking to implement robo umps. But in the meantime, you’ll have to tell your pitchers, they cannot just pour a whole bottle of sunscreen(and whatever rosin concoction they can formulate) over various parts of their body.
If Darvish needs elbow surgery, ‘24 is lost. Preller would be smart to trade Soto (making him the second-best hitter available) and collect some controllable players. Preller may not be that smart, though.
I’ll hope Yu rests until ST and is fine and has a bounce back year.
Should they not be the case, Joe, Wacha, and some upper tier SP (Snell/Nola/Urias) will be 1-3 with Yu being slotted for #4.
I don’t think Ohtani is an option for rotation in 24 even if they did sign him which I don’t think they will but they will be in on him.
I’d hate to think losing a 4 SP would derail the 24 season before 23 even ends!
@ink
If Preller was smart he would have seen the writing on the wall at the trade deadline and cashed in. Padres would be in better position heading into 2024. Soto is going into his contract year and is going to have a monster season and be more than worth the money he’ll get. The Padres need to hold onto to him.
Disagree big time on Soto. He has been a disappointment. His fielding is pathetic and not because he’s unable, but because he’s unwilling. And at bat, you may cry that he gets on base a lot, but how? Primarily walks. I’ve been thinking about the batting order, too. He should be bracketed further down the order. As it is, when he actually hits the ball, he often hits into DPs, spoiling the effort of whoever got to first before him. And when he actually reaches base, he can’t (won’t) run hard and is often called out when he does. He has no heart and hustle. Get rid of him.
.001% chance of playoffs. They can’t even win 2 straight games.
#keepthefaith
I’ve already said this previously, not like it’s big news. We knew before the first Astros series they were done. Toronto probably ain’t making it either.
Sorry, I thought I was on a Red Sox thread. Padres looking like the Mets with all those big contracts
Not trading Snell, Hader, Wacha and Lugo looking like a colossal mistake now.
Agree 2nd world sports franchise at asset management (49ers are 1st)
2nd worst*
My son was doing a throwing program with his 15U team over the winter and tore his labrum. His surgeon did Albies shoulder surgery and he advised against long toss programs.
Preller needs to get canned before the season ends
It’s Rich Hill time!
75 wins would be an average Padre WL %. That would mean going 13-17 down the stretch. Very doable. Let’s go Pads! IOW this is like watching a Phil Plantier, Billy Almon, Bob Owchinko team but over-priced prima donnas instead. Amazing.
Nothing about the Padres bringing Jurickson Profar back on a minor league deal yet?