The Brewers have officially announced that they have signed outfield prospect Jackson Chourio to an eight-year extension that runs through 2031 plus two club options for 2032 and 2033. Previous reporting has indicated the guarantee is $82MM, with the options each valued at $25MM. There are also some unknown incentives, which could allow him to max out at $142.5MM if he hits them all and both options are picked up. The options come with $2MM buyouts.
The deal is the largest ever offered to a player prior to their major league debut, surpassing the six-year, $50MM guarantee the White Sox gave to Luis Robert Jr. prior to the 2020 season. While Chourio, 19, has played just six games above the Double-A level to this point in his young career, it’s easy to see why this level of confidence in the youngster. Chourio is a consensus top-three prospect in the sport, with only Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday ranked above him consistently by prospect outlets. The deal will keep Chourio under contract through at least 2030 while extending his potential window of team control through 2032, his age-29 season.
Chourio signed with Milwaukee out of Venezuela for a $1.8MM bonus back in 2021 and immediately made an impression during his professional debut with a .286/.386/.447 slash line in 45 Dominican Summer League games at just 17 years old. His stateside debut the following season went even better as the youngster slashed a phenomenal .288/.342/.538 in 439 trips to the plate split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels. That performance already made Chourio a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport prior to the 2023 season, and he did little to disprove his status among the game’s elite prospect talents, slashing .280/.336/.467 in 559 plate appearances in his return to Double-A before his aforementioned cup of coffee in Triple-A. While he received just 24 plate appearances at the minors’ highest level, Chourio did not look overmatched with a slash line of .333/.375/.476.
With Chourio entering the 2024 season under guaranteed contract, there will be little incentive for the Brewers to send him back to Triple-A to start the regular season so long as he doesn’t look overmatched during big league camp this spring. The deal takes away the possibility of the club securing an extra year of team control, while the club could stand to gain a draft pick from the prospect promotion incentive if Chourio secures a full year of service time as a rookie eligible player and wins the Rookie of the Year award in 2024 or places in the top three of MVP voting before he would’ve been eligible for arbitration.
That said, Chourio starting the season with the big league club isn’t necessarily guaranteed. After all, the youngster has minimal experience at the Triple-A level and the Brewers already have a relatively crowded outfield mix even before considering their top prospect. Christian Yelich figures to get everyday at-bats in either left field or as the club’s DH, leaving just two spots for Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, Tyrone Taylor, and Blake Perkins. On the other hand, only Mitchell posted an above-average offensive season by wRC+ in 2023 among that group, leaving plenty of room for Chourio to establish himself as one of the club’s best options. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers could attempt to leverage that crop of young outfield options on the trade market this offseason, improving the club in other areas while clearing up the logjam on the outfield grass.
Securing Chourio’s services for the next eight-to-ten seasons gives the Brewers some additional security regarding their potential budding superstar. Milwaukee has faced several difficult decisions regarding star players on the verge of free agency this offseason, from non-tendering ace right-hander Brandon Woodruff to considering trades for Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes. If retained into next season, both Adames and Burnes are likely to depart in free agency next winter. By extending Chourio now, the Brewers take on the risk that their teenage phenom doesn’t reach his potential at the big league level in exchange for avoiding a similar situation to the one they’re currently facing down the road.
It’s not currently clear if this deal will impact the club’s thinking with regards to Burnes and Adames, but it shouldn’t have much of an impact from a financial perspective. While Chourio’s contract has an AAV of $10.25MM for luxury tax purposes, the club is more than $100MM below the first luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource. What’s more, early-career extensions tend to have salaries that ramp up over the course of the extension. In the likely event that Chourio’s deal has a similar structure, the youngster’s salary figures to be relatively low in 2024 despite the healthy guarantee.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were closing in on an agreement. Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel first reported the deal would be in the $80MM range over eight years. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the specifics of the $82MM guarantee and club options with $2MM buyouts. Rosenthal reported the option values and Heyman had the potential max payout of the deal.
Yikes……………
This is crazy as injuries and future performance are still uncertain. Do the math. First few years, $2 to $3m total. Arb years $40m to $50m if he’s a super two. You’re then gambling that he will be as productive and healthy as you could hope so you save $30m -$40m (with inflation) for the last two years. A lot can happen including a bubble bursting with respect to future revenue streams. Very risky for the team in my view (my numbers are guesses so correct me please).
There’s also 2-4 buyout years included – which add a ton of value even if he only develops into an average mlb player.
What are you talking about. These deals nearly always work out for the teams. The player got robbed
Contracts signed before players actually played a game in the majors rarely work out. Only Robert has definitely worked out so far. 3 are complete train wrecks for the team.
Lourdes Gurriel wasn’t bad value
Ronald acuna and Ozzie albies would like to say hi
Neither Acuna nor Albies signed before they played in the majors.
The majority of these deals are so small I dont see how they could be called train wrecks. Is Evan White overpaid? Yes, but a few mil a year is meaningless in the grand scheme of a teams payroll. Chourio is way more likely to turn out like Robert than the others.
The player didn’t get robbed. The player is going to make 80 million guaranteed stop saying dumb s***
He’s 20 years old and set for life.
It’s the new age we live in, free agent prices are through the roof, mid rotation starters are pocketing 25 million a season, guys like Ian Happ are earning 20 million a year, Soto is making 33 million in arbitration money, Franco, Tatis and Rodriguez pocketed hundreds of millions after just one partial season. The only way small spending teams can compete is taking these high risk/high reward deals and turning prospects into multi-millionaires.
amaymom thought he was being so cool…lol! pay attention, son!
And frankly until last year, Robert was disappointing because he couldn’t stay healthy. Last year was a huge step for him.
If the team gets zero MLB value from the deal, its a train wreck in my mind.
Came here to say the same thing.
Evan Longoria’s first deal was signed six games into his MLB career.
Nope… they do not usually work out for teams… More the exception that they do actually.
How about Jon Singleton?
great director!
I don’t get why there was a rush to payout for an unknown player
In what universe is Jackson Chourio unknown
raregokus
Everywhere outside of the MLB/MLBTR cult
This is a cult? How do I get out???
…is this a serious post? So if he’s terrible, then the 80M they invested will be a “train wreck?”
Yeah, no kidding. And then look at the players who’ve done what he’s done in the minor leagues AT ALL as teenagers.
He’s in an elite group with Griffey Jr, Soto, Acuna Jr…
None of them were as highly regarded as Chourio with the possible exception of Robert Jr.
He’s a CFer with elite defense, elite speed and elite power.
So if he’s a marginal hitter and worse than projected to be, he should be a GG caliber defender with elite speed who hits for power and a lot BA/OBP.
What’s that go for?
If he’s Acuna Jr, the player he’s most closely comped with(and they’re 2 of the 4 to EVER have 20/40 seasons as teenagers in the minors, the other two being in A ball and one of them Andruw Jones)…they’ve saved tens of millions
10 years of team control for the RISK of 82M. Risks the Brewers HAVE to take.
> This is a cult? How do I get out???
Bow before your Lord and drink the Cranberry juice.
Signed for 12M and was NEVER in the same stratosphere as Chourio as a prospect. Just an entirely different world.
4 teenagers have ever gone 20/40 in the minors.
Two did it in A ball.
Chourio did it in AA and AAA(mostly AA).
Acuna Jr did it in A+/AA/AAA.
Andruw Jones was one of the other 4.
He’s not an unknown and look at what it cost to wait for Tatis, Julio Rodriguez.
He has hit .286/.347/.490/.837 in the minors. Good, but not exceptional, even through age 19.
He hasn’t hit for great BA. OBP, or power.
In 2023 his numbers are similar to Jacob Marsee.
Jakob Marsee is three years older and a level behind Chourio
toooooo many uncertainties to do that deal before he reaches MLB .
If he does well his first few months in the majors, his price tag would jump.
And if he doesn’t do well? I know there are more recent examples but I remember growing up loving Mark “The Bird” Fidrych
And if he doesn’t do well? I know there are more recent examples but I remember growing up loving Mark “The Bird” Fidrych and “Super Joe” Charboneu who both were one year wonders.
It’s better than the certainty that without this deal he would leave the Brewers in 6 years when he would become a free-agent.
Whole lot will happen in those six years.. .more likely he never makes it to that six year mark… most do not. Not worth the risk.
You’re also not starting him OD so you can manipulate service time and therefore lose the chance that he finishes top 3 in ROY voting and the shot at an additional 1st rd pick.
That’s a nice bonus.
Cool. You liked Baseball before they ran the guy who sued for Free Agency out.
That was also a PITCHER, not an elite defensive CFer who can steal bases and hit for power…
Meaning at LEAST he’ll provide 2-3 WAR just on those strengths. If he ACTUALLY has a 60 bat, he could be the guy he’s regularly compared to…Acuna Jr.
If he doesn’t, it’s still a good deal.
But a pitcher who was abused early on? Brilliant comp. How about Acuna Jr?
HiAndTight is either Chourio’s agent or his mom.
No, it’s not “most likely,” that a player who’s done what he has as a minor leaguer(more HRs in the upper levels of the minors of any Teenager EVER, 1 of 4 to have a 20/40 season as a teen) and a top 2-3 prospect 2 years in a row “never makes it to that six-year mark.”
That’s just an absurd claim…likely using the AVERAGE prospect, not a guy like Chourio…who’s already proven, he’s different.
“Thanks for the support, Mom!”
– Jackson C.
He only needs to be an average MLB player this deal to payoff for the Brewers. Great deal for the team, with this deal they could keep him for 10 years. Without this deal in 6 years he would leave as a free-agent.
See 1B Evan White, recently salary dumped on Atlanta.
Again, such lazy comps. White wasn’t the #1/#2 prospect in Baseball.
He was a 1B who’s value lies entirely with his bat.
An elite defensive CFer will give you 2 WAR if he’s just a BAD hitter.
Chourio has done things only a couple teenagers have ever done in the Minor Leagues.
It is kind of crazy that if they pick up both his options Chourio will make 132-142m over his first 10 seasons.
The Padres will pay Tatis 121m over his first 10 seasons despite them signing him after he had hit:
.301/.375/.582, 155 OPS+, 143 G, 629 PA, 39 HR, 27 SB, 111 R, 98 RBI
There’s also the fact that San Diego already has committed another $220M to Tatis for seasons 11-16. Milwaukee owes Chourio nothing beyond the initial $82M.
@gbs yeah.
It’s what Tatis is owed after the first 10.
But hey SD can give Chourio another $250MM after the 10 years are up!
Chourio isn’t planning on ring worm or off season injuries.
It’s a great deal all the way around fir player and team.
Coolio
For the sake of the Brewers, I hope the talent evaluators have this kid pegged correctly as an up and coming superstar. Assuming it’s heavily backloaded, it’s the type of deal that could make hinder a small market team if it doesn’t work out.
there are going to be club options included, so i wouldn’t be as worried as you are. If the club options are in the earlier years, then I would be worried
Could be a cautionary tale. Never give. Player this young this much no way. The last super super hyped prospect the brewers had was Orlando Arcia. He never fulfilled his heavy potential then a few years ago he was traded to the Braves and he made The all star team this past season
Arcia was never this hyped. The last Brewers player ranked in the T5 was Braun
Arcia was ranked just outside the top 5. #6 on one list and #8 on the other in 2016. Still a very hyped prospect. Plus, Keston Hiura was top 10 overall by some sites as well.
BTW, Braun was never ranked top 5. He didn’t even crack top 25. The last Brewer in the top 5 was Rickie Weeks in 2004.
thebaseballcube.com/content/prospects/
Well that’s just not true. Braun was ranked 12th pre-season and moved into the top 5 early into his rookie year and Hiura topped out at 17 and 20 by 2 of the 3 ranking sites.
EITHER WAY, neither brought any defensive value. That, his speed and just power ALONE will make this deal a good one even if he hits .220 and hits for 25 HRs.
If the brewers don’t sign a star player this early, they are unlikely to ever lock them up. The risk is there, but so is the reward.
You mean like Christian Yelich? Or Ryan Braun? Or from a different era…Robin Yount? The Brewers have had ZERO problem signing guys long term in their history. This is just a foolish risk on a completely unknown quantity.
Braun? You mean the guy they signed to an abnormally cheap deal with less than a year of service time, then added money that ended up biting them in the ass…JUST as they’re doing with Yelich now?
And Robin Yount…dude, go back to the era before TV contracts when the larger market teams were making 200-300M more a year in just their TV deal than the Brewers and the Brewers were among the top in the league in payroll.
That was in the last 1980s.
This deal however has been universally lauded by people who actually know what they’re talking about and whined about by the same Brewers fans who, if this were Ronald Acuna, would be complaining that we’d have to trade him this year as he’d be entering Free Agency next year.
And did you see what Tatis signed for? Julio Rodriguez?
There’s more risk in NOT signing him than team control through his age 30 season there sport.
And he’s only “completely unknown” to you. Again, his performance in the minor leagues as a TEENAGER is something only 3-4 players in the last 40 years have matched.
He also broke Stanton’s record for HRs by a Teenager in the upper levels of the minors.
Don’t mistake YOUR ignorance for him being “unknown” by the people that actually matter.
Arcia was hyped as a defensive star with a potential bat at SS that would make him elite. Chourio just accomplished a 20/40 season at age 19 in AA. The bat isn’t questioned like Arcia’s. The question is how high will his become Ala Acuna’ 40+HR version or just 30s.
You mean the same talent evaluators that had Lewis Brinson as an up and coming superstar too?
They obviously did not which is why he was traded to get MVP Yelich.
Brinson was evaluated by Stearns not Arnold. Arnold is significantly better at evaluating talent and drafting. Hence Milwaukee’s #2 ranked farm system with no high draft picks.
#2 ranked farm system? Just checked fangraphs and they have Brewers at #21. What ranking are you looking at?
How many Stearns players are contributing to the Brewers highly ranked system?
The brewers number 2 ranked system? Might not be the 2nd best in nl central lol
You are looking at the old rankings from July. Look at the updated rankings. Mlb, athletic take your pick. They all have milwaukee with a top farm system.
That might be true central is loaded with deep farm systems except stl.
Way, way too early to be giving anyone credit after Stearns. Talk to us in 3-5 years.
Do you even understand HOW they rank farm systems?
mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-system-ra…
They were both very good at it. Arnold evaluated Brinson and then traded him for Yelich.
He also brought in Burnes, Woodruff and countless others.
In fact, he re-started the Latin American system…which is just starting to pay dividends with Uribe coming up last year with a 103 MPH sinker, with Chourio, Quero #2 and #30 in the prospect rankings along with a ton of other young, talented players.
Now, Stearns did trade Hader last year and then Arnold turned that into Contreras, Payamps, Yeager(thought to be the higher upside of the two relievers) and then the main piece, Gasser, a fringe top 100 prospect.
Of course the GM isn’t solely responsible for scouting these players…because that’d be ridiculous. We’ve kept our infrastructure in place that has allowed us to build one of the best farm system after a ridiculous draft last year despite having made the playoffs 5 of the last 6 years and picking in the bottom of the first round.
Montgomery and company can evaluate talent just fine.
Ruiz became Contreras(an elite Catcher who played well above average defense), Payamps(a high leverage reliever with 5 years of team control left) and Yeager, another flame thrower who showed his stuff off in the AFL after getting healthy.
You shouldn’t peg kids
It’s a gamble a small market team has to take though. If he ends up being really good without a deal now, the Brewers will not be able to outbid other teams later.
Too risky for a small market team. How much more would it have cost them to wait until his rookie status was used up? Not much under typical team controls. Might have lost a little potential control, but seriously. This was somebody getting caught up in an idea without thinking it through.
If he’s as good as they think, it literally could have cost 200-300M.
That’s how much. The Acuna Jr deals aren’t being signed. Wander Franco signed almost immediately(and please don’t be intentionally obtuse, they’ve go a morality clause and will get out of that, but it was a great deal from a strictly baseball perspective at the time).
Julio, Tatis, how much did they get after “just waiting?”
This deal was a no-brainer.
@HIAndTight – The Brewers cannot afford a long term free agency year buyout of a player who’s putting up RoY numbers like Rodriquez was late into the season or MVP potential numbers like Tatis did through 2 years in MLB.
The point is the Brewers have 6 years of team control for cheap. Adding 2 years to the end to get 8 full years of control is not that expensive. I’m not advocating trying to wait to see if he’s a superstar before locking up him to a 12-14 year contract.
Tatis hasn’t exactly been a model franchise player since his extension, and while Wander Franco won’t be a brutal contract situation, it’s far from a good thing. Acuna got hurt and then had a poor season before an absolutely stellar bounce back this year.
Aside from all that. Chances are good Chrouio turns out to be an average player at best. Buy hey, crown him as MVP if you like.
You DO realize even before Acuna Jr’s MVP season, he’d put up ~18 WAR in the previous 4.5 seasons of service time, right? Ages 20-24 he put up ~18 WAR. If Chourio just did that, he’d make a helluva lot more than he’ll make under this deal(where he’ll be locked up for another 6 years).
You asked how much it would have cost if they had waited. I answered.
The Tatis deal would be one of the best in baseball if it was 10 years of team control for 82M GTD.
But you’re right. This was “somebody,” getting caught up without thinking it through! LOL…
theathletic.com/5106896/2023/12/03/jackson-chourio…
The majority of theese extentions do not pan out. I don’t see why commit that much money to an unprooven playe wnen you can him for three years at the bear minimum.
He’s still very young and plenty of development can and will happen, but the one concern I have is his ability to take walks. For an elite prospect to only have around a .320 OBP in nearly 200 A-AAA games is concerning. Still early, but something to keep an eye on.
He has ~.340 OBP between A-AAA.
@ReddVencher
Future potential is there. Career BA of 0.286 and wOBA of 0.437 is quite promising. And even if it doesn’t pan out, it’s essentially $10M per year over 8 years. Hey, the Mets are still paying Bonilla through 2035 for that contract and he’s not even playing.
That Bonilla deal was actually a great for the Mets if ownership wasn’t ran by ponzie scheme. If you took the money owed to Bonilla at the time and invested it, it would have brought back a higher return than what they are still paying him.
Why does everyone keep bringing up Bobby Bonilla? The Mets are paying him a little over minimum salary each year. Is it really that big a deal to people?
@hiflew
I’m just pointing out that the Mets are still spending money on a player that is not playing for them at all so even if this doesn’t pan out for the Brewers, it’s not like it’s a massive contract to eat. Even if the guy turns out to be below league average, it’s still not terrible money, given the dollars being floated around that never pan out for teams.
Well if Chourio is getting $10m/year, that’d be the second highest guaranteed contact on the Brewers roster for next year. For a team that refuses to spend $ consistently, a $10m waste is a pretty big deal if Chourio turns out like Jon Singleton, David Bote or Scott Kingery.
And what if he is worse than below league average? What if he is Rusney Castillo or Scott Kingery and the Brewers are paying their second highest salary to a guy leading their AAA to third place? The Brewers are not the Dodgers or Red Sox or Yankees that can afford to take that kind of risk.
People act like 10 million dollars is not a lot of money. A few bad 10-20 million dollar contracts can really handcuff any or organization. Padres fans are going to find out really quick, maybe as soon as this year.
And that 10 mil would be a bargain if he turns out anything close to Acuna. If he is just an average player, this contract is a bargain.
I’d like that retirement.
Was Jon Singleton a clear top 5 prospect? Stop comparing Chourio to good prospects, he is a great prospect.
While this kid probably won’t be able to match Acuna’s bat, he has better defensive tools and is the best chance that the Brewers have of putting a player on the field that can average 6+ WAR over a 5-year span. Those guys don’t grow on trees.
Cool. If only you can count on ridiculous, unsustainable 15% returns EVERY single year before your Ponzi Scheme falls apart, it’d have been a great deal.
Nonetheless, they paid him ~6X the money to make him go away.
And he’s not the only one they did that with…(nor is Bonilla).
Yes, if he turns out like players who were NEVER in his league as a prospect…
Why is nobody bringing up Longoria, Franco or the Tatis/Julio Rodriguez dals?
This was an easy call.
Actually it’s .347 including DSL. And his walk rate is 9 percent, not 8. League BB average in the NL last year was about 9 percent, in the AL, about 8.5 percent. So already Chourio’s MiLB BB rate tracks with the MLB rate. True, MiLB walk rates are a tick or two higher, but not enough to be concerned about this for Chourio, imo. Calculations made from this chart:: statmuse.com/mlb/ask/what-is-the-league-average-wa… and from here: baseballamerica.com/stories/home-runs-strikeouts-a…
@labrewer
Where are you pulling that 0.347 number and is that wOBA or BA?
The .347 is OBP (which is what the earlier comment referenced) and it’s from BRef: baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cho…
@labrewer
I see. I look at future predictive stats like BA & wOBA as a better picture of the player’s outcome. Again, I’m not saying he’s going to be the next superstar but $80M over 8 years is not going to break the bank and it’s a decent investment for the career BA of 0.286 and wOBA of 0.437.
BA is not a predictive stat.
@Pads Fans
Much better than any of the xBA, xwOBA and all that junk.
community.fangraphs.com/properly-diving-into-expec…
Are you trying to say its better than the stuff you trot out all the time? Well, its not a predictive stat.
@Pads Fans
It is a predictive stat.
It’s not. End of debate.
@iverbure
So, you were provided proof that it is and you doubled down with no facts to say it isn’t and end of debate… Great argument!
Do you understand what a PREDICTIVE STAT is?
As 20-year old.
I have one question….. why? You can easily make this same deal after his first full big league season? The kid isn’t gonna turn down $80m after one season or even a half season? But to throw this kind of money around after not even a full season at AAA seems pretty reckless
The deal at least doubles after his first year if he performs like they think he can. Wander Franco 11 years $182 M and Julio Rodriguez 12 years $209 M.
If you get that level of production…its a steal of a deal for the organization.
And if he struggles? Can’t compare back loaded 11 and 12 year deals.
Hence the whole idea of risk/reward. Risk that he doesn’t develop, reward if he does. You do understand that, right?
Why? It’s a backloaded 10 year deal, the last 2 just aren’t guaranteed for more than 2M for a buyout.
Explain this…”logic” to me?
6 games at AAA.
AAA is not that big of a deal..Everyone knows AA is where it is at…it is why you see more and more just skipping AAA. AA is harder to hit at..
Hopefully, the contract doesn’t dictate what level he plays at. Too many rushed players (see Kelenic) end up failing and struggle to recover. Let this kid dictate his level by his performance.
Seems an odd move for a penny pinching team. This unknown young man gets tens of millions but they can barely hold onto their all stars through their arb years
This almost certainly was driven by Chourio and his agents. It reminds me of the Freddy Peralta extension, although that did come after his MLB debut.
Some players just need/want the money now. It worked out very well for the Brewers with Peralta. This deal could certainly go either way, but a team like the Crew needs to roll the dice more often than is advisable.
This was driven by the Brewers. They’ve tried doing extensions with some of their other young players last year before they got to the majors.
They have been on top of Chourio I believe since a showcase at age 14. This isn’t like oh 2yrs of production by age 19. This is talent they seen 5years ago and it will always come down to does the body/mind mature in a a prototypical star or not.. like The Arcia comparisons of hype. Dude never gained any maturity in his body until you see Atlanta and his frame. Excited to hear up to 10yrs. 8 wasn’t going to satisfy me.
Arcia’s problem has always been his wandering back foot during his swing. It’s amazing he can hit a baseball at all. No one will ever consistently hit with his swing and chaotic lower half.
ridiculous! Alot of pressure is on that kid to live up to that. You don’t give someone that money until they prove themselves. He can easily say welp I got mine already.
There’s definitely going to be incentives in the deal. Take Julio Rodriguez’ $209 M extension can ;max out $470 M if he performs. as an example.
Certain players swim on $$$ incentives but others sink…
Acuna Jr and Ozzie Albies didn’t do that. I think part of giving this kind of money to the kid is an understanding of his character. Guys like Oz and Acuna don’t play like “welp I got mine’, they play like they are trying to make the damn team. Choriou may have similar character, thus it will end up being a great deal for the Brewers.
And if Jackson blossoms into a star and is thus not getting enough money for his 80 million, then he can always leverage himself for marketing deals if he needs more. Chourio can now just focus and play baseball. He is set for life (unless he is like MC Hammer) and can now just go play.
I think part of giving this kind of money to the kid is an understanding of his character.
=============================
Almost no one mentions this, and I think almost the entirety of these contracts rests on the character of the player. They said that about Pedroia when we extended, that he would show up early at the ball park, even when he didn’t even need to be there. Here’s what FG wrote:
“that he tends to compete hard at all times, indicates that he is hungry and coachable in addition to very talented. ”
Sounds good to me.
I guess we’ll soon be at the point that minor leaguers will be paid millions and the major leaguers will be paid billions.
I might need to dust off my hat and glove and get back in the game…
The financial bubble continues to be stretched. At what point does it burst? I no longer go to games and eventually some won’t be able to afford to watch on TV.
@deweybelongsinthehall
Well, nowadays, kids are watching other people play video game baseball games so I wouldn’t be surprised that the money moves to this in the distant future. You’ll be paying to watch video game players play the game. or even AI.
And most fans will.
And it’ll almost certainly be more beneficial to the Brewers fans to sell a package to the team as they spend more per capita than any other fan base, a price that is not reflected in their current TV deal.
Or MLB just takes over the TV rights and divvies them up like the NFL/.NBA.
Too many Jacksons.
Why??
Chourio wants the money now. As for the Brewers, it’s a major gamble. If it works out, you’ve got the next Acuna at a bargain rate. If not…well at least the renovations on the ballpark were approved.
Seems like a bad deal for both parties involved.
Which in a way makes it fair, don’t you think? I find myself pulling for the Brewers often, good baseball fans struggling with organizational limitations.
Because Milw can afford 30M single year contracts just to 1 player. They need to spread money. Without Woodruff pay they opened 10M+ to go ahead and spread some pre-arb money to Chourio and in 7-8years when he’s a perennial 7+WAR in his prime they aren’t watching sign off as a FA for 40+M they are paying him(soon to be found out)
So as long as he becomes a perennial MVP candidate, this will work out just fine…got it. Absolutely no chance of anything going wrong in that scenario.
He only needs to be an average for layer for this to work. 10 million to a starting outfielder is below-cost these days, and in 8 years the average player will probably be closer to 18-20 million.
No the deal works out fine if he’s a perennial 4WAR player even at prime. But that’s not what Chourio will just be. It’s all good though. We’ll get to see him throughout 2024 just to show the skeptics what he’s about to become in MLB. The future.
If that is so, there will be a lot less teams unless this fouled up system is changed.
Wow…talk about a poor faith argument.
No, he needs to be a 2-3 WAR player for the contract to pay for itself.
1 WAR= ~9M.
So if he’s JUST a good defender, hits for some power while carrying a lot BA/OBP, it’s a good deal.
It’s a ridiculous steal if he becomes Acuna Jr, the guy he’s been compared to.
The front office plan is distract the fan base with this deal meanwhile the playoff caliber team is torn apart piece by piece. The minions are so dumb they won’t even notice the win totals for the next 3 seasons . This is all after the locals will be coughing up 500 million tax dollars
What do you consider torn a part piece by piece? What do you think their record over the next 3 seasons is going to be?
LOL…well, first you re-sign Wade Miley.
Then you sign a teenager who has done things that only a handful of players have EVER done in MiLB before turning 20.
Then you sign Tyson Ross, a pitcher who’s worked his way back and was throwing 96 last year.
Then you tender Hauser and Adames and company.
I guess the problem is they didn’t pay for a player who’s NOT going to be playing in ’24?
LOL…they’ve got a top3 farm system and those players are JUST hitting the market!
I’d actually prefer they trade Burnes and Williams now…that way when Wilken, Black, Chourio, Frelick, Wiemer, Mitchell, Quero…and company all have a couple years, they’ll have more pitching to support them.
Not that they don’t have the highest upside arm in the minors as it stands with Misiorowski, or fringe top 100 lefty Gasser, or Rodriguez or 7-8 younger pitchers to go with a DEEP and DOMINANT pen that’s locked in for 4-6 years in just about every case.
What a baffling comment.
Again, I’d actually prefer they use ’24 to get the young guys ready, see how Wilken and Boeve progress(both should move quickly with guys like Pratt/Bitonti a couple years behind).
BUT THEY HAVEN’T DONE THAT!!! What have they torn apart?
Ignorant fan gets mad small market team makes shrewd moves to stay successful, more at 11pm.
Yeah- fans get mad when trans are cheap and also get mad when teams spend money.
is torn apart piece by piece.
=====================
I was under the impression that Mil hasn’t even lost a single player. Am I missing something?
An eight year bet that an unproven prospect with “eye test” ability will provide more value than a ho hum Major-League-r to return excess value? If he is any better than that, Brewers might even extract some added value on the back end …before they really can’t afford him.
I GUARANTEE you one thing: The analytics told them THIS was a good gamble!
If the analytics told them this is a good gamble, then he is not an “eye test” prospect.
They use analytics on the financials, too.
Your point?
What’s yours?
If you don’t get that “eye test” and analytics are at the opposite end of the spectrum then that is reason enough to ignore you.
It’s my “eye test” and you, apparently, are oblivious to the many different applications of analytics.
They aren’t really on opposite ends. They are more like complementary pieces,
If you go buy a house, you check the layout, the rooms, the finishes, etc. Simultaneously, you check out the neighborhood comps, interest rates, local schools. You have an engineer come in to peek at things you can’t see.
I have no idea why some posters (not necessarily you) think it has to be one or the other. It is equally important to see how much he can lift as it is to see how often he lifts and how intense he is.
LOL…terrible attempt to try and save it.
What “analytics,” do you think they used there?
You think they valued the “financial” analytics over his ridiculous exit velocity, his CONSTANT improvement, his 3.8 Home to 1st Time, his defensive metrics?
The eye test is obvious, they also used analytics. You accidentally got it right before doubling back and getting it wrong…
His minor league analytics were off the charts, especially when they went away from the tacked baseball in AA.
The Brewers have held high regard towards Chourio since he was 14 when they seen him in a showcase and scouts made a priority to sign him as intl FA clearly for 1.8M. If you could sign Trout or Robert Acuna to more years now than any other chance at the age of just turned 20? Is 8/80m plus options too much? You would rather have that player turned 26 be traded away because 25+M or 350-500+M FA contract looming staring at being smallest market in baseball trying to deal with that?
if Chourio signs this deal, does he still have to earn an opening day roster spot?
I’d say yes. If he’s overmatched in spring training (a possibility, though I’d say doubtful), then, little reason not to start him in Nashville.
He’s PPI draft pick eligible if he spends at least 172 days (182 days in a season) on the big league roster and win ROY voting or finish top 3 in MVP voting. Little reason not to start him on the big league roster OD.
Who do they sit so he can play? It won’t be Yelich, so Weimer, Taylor or Frelick?
Not saying its a bad thing, just asking who do you think it will be?
wiemer and taylor. wee.s goes to AAA most likely, OF consists of yeli, chourio, mitchell with taylor and frelick riding pine. yeli porbs DHs a lot giving LF to Frelick
My thoughts-whichever team offers the best player or prospects acquiring 1 or 2 of the OFs. Ive wondered when trading Burnes-Adames happens that 1 OF is included to sweeten the deal making sense to part with the headline player acquired.
I’m guessing you’re correct that Wiemer starts in AAA, but I have a feeling he and Mitchell will eventually switch places due to Mitchell’s terrifying K-rate.
I think they should extend Chourio and move Frelick, personally.
A lot of soft contact from him and they have CF’s. He’d hold more value to a team that needs a CF. The Crew can try to target another area of need.
Soft contact from Frelick is far better than the no contact from Wiemer.
@pdx
Wiemer isn’t anything more than a D replacement/platoon bat. But the Crew still have Mitchell/Yelich/Taylor for the other 2 slots. I figure Tyler Black could play some OF too. I think Frelick would bring something good back to potentially fill the other holes.
Bat just isn’t very impactful for a corner OF . A team that needs him in CF would value him more.
Only problem with that is Taylor is even more of a bench player than Wiemer. And Wiemer isn’t really that good defensively.
What do you mean Wiemer isn’t that good defensively? He was the best defender in the OF for Milwaukee last season. Savant has him at 10 runs of value defensively. Bref at 5 runs of value. Did you watch him last season? Highlight reel stuff quite often
I wonder why they would not move Yelich to 1B.
by “that good” do you mean Roberto Clemente kind of good? No, he’s not “that good”.
He’s not great defensively. He gets bad reads, takes bad lines and gets turned around way too easily. He has speed to make up for some of it, but he makes a lot of mistakes out there.
Highlight reel stuff simply because he puts himself in a poor position.
By “that good” I mean is not that good. Watch him. Misplays the ball constantly.
And nobody has ever improved their their route running and reading the ball off the bat after basically AA level experience to rookie in MLB? He’s got the elite intangibles to fix his mistakes. What then when he does take clean routes and gets better jumps off the ball? He’s also about to be relied for corner OF defense vs CF, since Chourio is taking the CF defense mantle.
Players don’t improve those abilities much at the MLB level. They are what they are.
He’s Corey Hart redux. Someone that is average at best, but looks better because of having good speed.
He has to be on the opening day roster to qualify though. Can’t just be 172 days, has to be on the OD roster.
LOL…you’re talking out of your arse. He got substantially better last year.
You DO know he came up as a MIFer, right? He’s played in the OF for a very short period of time and he was elite defensively last year.
He TOOK some bad routes when he was first moved out there. Last year, he was exceptionally(winning a minor league GG).
Watched him play…far more than you, but less than the actual scouts who grade his CF defense as a 60. Try again.
LMFAO!!!!
Sure bud! You sound like a guy on a forum who said the Brewers would be better off “paying a reliver or a 4th OFer in Free Agency every year than investing in Latin America.”
Yelich plays DH and probably transitions back to 1B(the position he was drafted) next season.
Frelick, Chourio get the majority of the starts in the OF. Mitchell depending on how he looks in STing may get ~130 starts out there splitting time.
Wiemer was pressed into action too soon last year. They reset his clock by starting him in AAA and Taylor serves as the 5th OFer.
Late game, having 3 CFers in the OF in Frelick/Chourio/Mitchell/Wiemer/Taylor will give the Brewers the top defensive unit.
It’s not really that hard though. Frelick sits vs tough lefties, as does Mitchell. Yelich plays probably half his games at DH.
They have plenty of ABs and they’ll have little trouble figuring it out.
You can almost guarantee he will be on the opening day roster.
They have to pay him once the deal is agreed. There would be little incentive to deny him a roster spot, other than more minor-league experience. If Spring Training doesn’t prove he needs more of that, he’s got to be on the opening day roster.
Of the 5 contracts before the players 1st MLB season, 1 has worked out for the team, one is meh, and 3 have been total train wrecks.
Here is hoping that the Brewers got this one right and he doesn’t get injured or not play up to expectations like 80% of top 100 prospects.
You have to trust your organization’s ability to develop and identify the talent. The Brewers know that they cannot keep Jackson Chourio for more than team control years if he becomes a star.
I have no issues taking the risk if you believe this is the guy. Wait a year and you have to pay Tatis money—the brewers can’t do that.
The one thing about these contracts that scares me is the player potentially getting lazy and not trying anymore. Depending on talent though they could still be productive.
MLB teams have the option to just control a players rights for 6 years, so if they choose to sign him for 6+ years they had better be right, especially as a smaller mkt team.
What about in the case of free agency?
@Buzzzz
That’s the same risk with any LT deal that’s signed though. I like this because the players body is less likely to breakdown at younger ages & the upside is much higher than you’d get on a free agent.
Risky move for sure but it’s the type of high risk/high reward move that can change your direction.
This has Scott Kingery written all over it.
Stop, the comparison is ludicrous. Chourio stormed through every stop in the minors before reaching AAA as a *19 year-old*. Kingery wasn’t even a pro until age 21.
Doing what Chourio did as a prospect puts him in the Griffey/Acuña category of the minor leagues. Now, you’d be correct to say past performance does not guarantee future results. But Kingery is a clown comp.
Not even close. Chourio has much better AA stats at age 19 than Kingery had at age 22.
Hopefully the Brewers got this right and finally find themselves a competent hitter. Giving a guy that’s never played above AAA 80 M is quite a risk.
Hrs gonna get paid 10mil a year before he even gets to the ML? Or does it only kick in when he gets to the show? Which could be 3 years. He’s only 19
His contract will start next season (2024) no matter if he’s on the ML roster or assigned to AAA. While the AAV will be $10M per season over 8 years, there is a high likelihood that the annual salary amounts escalate as the years progress. He’ll probably get paid between $1M-$2M for the 2024 season, then $3M-$4M for 2025, etc.
I’m sure there will be a large signing bonus he gets up front as well. Maybe $5M or so?
If Chourio is that good none of those Outfielders will block him. Besides, in a world of platoons with Yelich/Mitchell/Frelick all hitting left handed and Chourio/Taylor/Weimer right handed (Perkins is a switch hitter) there’s plenty of opportunity for mixing and matching
How did can’t miss Lewis Brunson pan out?
Absolute disaster
I’m not getting how you guys keep saying this is a gamble for Milwaukee… this is just a bad decision by Milwaukee.
If it were 10 years, 80 mil, I could see it being called a gamble. But at 8 years 80 mil, you’re guaranteeing him as much as he would get through his arb years anyway plus risking being stuck in a contract with a bust.
I’m all about trying to lock guys up long term early on in their careers, but only when it’s truly a discounted rate.
You aren’t including the two free agent years being bought out.
Why do posters keep missing that? The entire point of a l/t contract is to buy out FA years, not arbitration years.
Plus, at least right now, we have no idea what the numbers are on that.
If he’s good that 7-8th year are probably worth 50-60 million by themselves. Even if he’s mediocre this isn’t horrible. If he’s a flat out bust this will look really bad. Most of these are 6 years with two club options. This kid is signing away 4 free agent years. I definitely like it a lot more on the brewers end
Salaries have been going up so this is the new “discounted rate”. This deal is also highly-insurable due to his age with no pre-existing medical conditions. Nothing wrong with trying to establish and lock up a core player giving Brewers fans a player to cheer for. If he turns into a really good player, see the Cleveland Emmanuel Close post, as an example, that was just posted earlier today.
Yea this is the type of deal that even if the kid is only average or slightly above he salary will still be market rate in a few years as with the Covid era over all NA sports leagues have increasing salaries and caps. however its a ton to risk with little tonno AAA+ experience, im a jays fan and look at Manoah this year, i clamored for an extension for him last offseason. Anyway if the kid had a WRC+ of 110 or more with power and good defense its a good deal amd they expect him to be much better
Scott Kingery…
…isn’t an apt comparison.
No, It’s not. No where near the unanimous skill ratings as Churio
The Crews owner became a billionaire risking other people’s money, he’s literally turned analyzing risk into a fortune so I’m pretty sure this “risk” has been thoroughly vetted, also isn’t it more of a risk to not do the deal, that’s how I see it as a brewers fan and apparently ol money pinching mark sees it the same so that’s nice for a change, I was thinking 7/77 would be the deal but 8/80 is even better! With two more club options, that’s fantastic, and if Jackson turns out it’s those two club option where the crew will really make their hay!
“More of a risk to not do the deal”..There’s little risk in not doing the deal, because teams already control a players rights for 6 sometimes 7 years. “Not doing” the deal still leaves the team in control of the players rights for over a half decade.
Yes but this way they know what he will cost every year. He could be amazing and start costing 24MM a year in Arb like Glasnow. This way that won’t happen. It’s a risk but a calculated one. It helps with budgeting.
Jackson reminds me a lot of Victor Robles as a prospect. He just has more power and less plate discipline.
Only time will tell.
If there are two team options and no player options, this could be amazing for the Brewers.
It baffles me how fans are never happy. They complain about never emptying the bank on their stars when they reach free agency, and they complain when the team gets creative to try to keep a player beyond that window who could be such a star.
I’m glad the team doesn’t listen. This move sounds brilliant.
Completely agreed..
It’s never simple – just one of these things. The Brewers are a minor league affiliate of the 9 or 10 $$$ actual MLB teams it feeds talent into. They only appear to compete because they are in the Al Central or NL Central.
They need to provide at least a surface-level exciting product. There is NO REASON at all to get attached to a player (Burnes in my instance – he reminded me of my kid – until he went all Boras in his big-time talk) with the modern economics of MLB.
They would like to sell some Jerseys (My first one was Bamberger before I went all Braun) and give the MARKET PLACE “Someone to watch coming up…”
The next Robin – with promos featuring them together – SWEEEEEEET!!!! How about a bobblehead featuring their first home runs?
I found MLBTR when CC was headed our way. Say what you want – I was at his first game, and it was ELECTRIC!!!!! I believe it was a Tuesday (mid-week) game, and I got tix early, but they sold something like what? 20,000 in 24 hours – or something close to that idea – following the announcement and preceding the game.
Back then, they were competing.
In 2023 its really nothing but marketing.
Why Stearns left (NO SURPRISE)
Why CC left – blew the lid off the credibility of all that “Remember this – this is special”
Clearly he was not talking about Milwaukee – the guy was talking about himself….. so he took himself to the highest bidder. Like pretty much any player would do.
I do like the loyalty of signing a long term deal. I personally would of signed a 6yr, or atleast an opt out after 6 to hit free agency…he is going to be 25/26 at that point, look at harper/Machado deals at that age.
They have control for six years anyway. Only thing a six year deal does is add financial predictability.
I just hope he is not another Jon Singleton, or even worse, Scott Kingery
Or Joey Gallo.
No other players to sign before major league service were consistently rated, by all baseball scouts, this high.
This is a good deal. There is risk, of course. However, the reward far outweighs this risk.
His defense & speed will always play, regardless if he never hits above average. But he very likely will. There are only a few organizations that wouldn’t do this for this player. Baltimore is looking at doing the same for Jackson Holliday, the only player rated above Churio.
“Baltimore is looking at doing the same for Jackson Holliday, the only player rated above Churio”
Virtually no chance this is true, John Angelos has consistently cried poor since taking the reins from the ailing Peter and claimed that he would have to raise the price of hot dogs if we gave out any big contracts like this. Plus Holliday is a Boras client, who almost never sign early extensions, and he was already essentially set for life before he even got his massive 1:1 draft bonus thanks to his dad’s extremely successful career. I wish it wasn’t the case, but there is basically zero chance he intentionally delays his path to free agency or that the team even puts much effort into doing so, IMO.
That’s a lot of money for someone who isn’t even old enough to drink. I hope that contract comes with classes on how to manage your salary and how to avoid getting involved with “baddies.”
More young players should seek these kinds of deals. Nobody ever really knows where their performance ceiling is, and there is never a guarantee against a catastrophic injury. Create generational wealth when you first get the opportunity.
Yeah and then you don’t even need to bother making the majors because you already got paid.
Congratulations Jackson, you’ll never have to work again!
The league will find out what his weaknesses are and if he can’t adopt to it witch alot don’t and it will be a disaster of a contract but if he can the God deal for the team but the odds are against him adopting
They throw all these millions at an unproven player yet they act stingy with Corbin Burnes last year during arbitration for a few 100k difference just terrible
As soon as this idea got floated I predicted exactly this contract and boom.
More risk here for the Brewers than Chourio. The only risk the player takes is he makes less millions if he’s as good as advertised. And if he’s that good, he’ll get a huge contract when he turns 29 0r 30. Bigger risk for the Brewers if he flops, and prospects, even top ones, still flop.
Cool I guess but doesn’t make next year’s team better. Turning a new page.
I am glad that young man got the money and also glad to see St Louis Cardinals got a couple of pitchers that they needed
Unfortunately for Milwaukee Brewers and St Louis Cardinals & Cincinnati Reds & Pittsburgh Pirates
All 4 of them can watch the Chicago Cubs lead by 8 million dollar a year manager Craig C win the Central Division for next 5 years
Counsell will have some success but not what he did for Milwaukee. He had Pat Murphy at his side all the time giving him advice on what to do.
Cubs can spend all they want. In the end they’re still the Cubbies.
LMFAO…it gets worse and worse for the Brewers. $142M for someone that has 6 games at AAA? What were they smoking? I want some!!!!
C’mon now, it says very clearly there are 2 club options for $25 mil each. So if he goes the way of Jeff Suppan, Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza (and they come to their senses at some point..), they won’t be on the hook for $50 mil of that.
Wow. Better be a can’t-miss kid.
Lot of money for a kid who hasn’t played a single major league inning. Wish him well and all, but this seems like such a big risk, especially for a small-market club.
Every Brewers top 10 prospect is on the phone with their agent saying “I want that.” Obviously not the exact deal, but why wouldn’t they ask for 8 years and a giant bag of money? Then we hear Management tell them “you haven’t even played in a mlb game yet…” with a straight face.
Being a T10 org prospect and a T3 league prospect are not even close to comparable. If one of the other org prospects gets into the T5, then they can start making those kind of calls
Yeah, I know that. I mean, besides not having played in a mlb game yet, totally different.
Brewers can’t afford not to make this deal, until they discover they shouldn’t have made this deal.
This guy is 19? In my best Dr Evil voice: “Riiiiiiiiggghhtt”
Totally get why it’s so imperative that small-market teams lock up guys that are potential superstars when they’re still very young. Just hope he pans out. Hefty commitment to a kid that hasn’t even made his big league debut. Good on the Brewers for gambling, really hope they didn’t take a bad beat after they’ve had to cut loose Woodruff and are seemingly on the verge of trading Burns.
Good luck! Lol
That’s a lot of pressure…hope he can handle it. The fact that he’s in a small market should help lessen the burden on him though.
Pat Murphy excelled with helping dynamic hitters like this reach their potential when he managed ASU. His teams always mashed.
Imagine 5 or 6 years from now when he’s still traveling by bus in the minor leagues but he’s worth over $100 million.
If you’re a “low” payroll team like Milwaukee you have to take risks like this. The club options and buyouts in the deal actually makes this contract a worthwhile risk, too.
Granted, the most likely outcome for a player that’s barely played in advanced ball is that he’ll flame out. I hope he doesn’t.
Actually if you look at top 3 ranked prospects (in all of baseball), the success rate is high. My co-Brewcrewballeer posted about this a few days ago – the top two guys over the last ten years is an extremely impressive list. Can’t find his post right now but you could probably look it up.
Ok, that’s interesting and I’d like to see the data since I didn’t take the time to come up with it. But like I said, I’m a proponent of this deal for the Brewers. This is the kind of thing I’d like the Twins to do with Walker Jenkins should he continue his play in AA (when he gets there) this year. Worthwhile risk.
Thanks – I’ll see if I can find that post and if so I’ll send it to you.
Yeah, just since 2022 you have at least Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, who were both consensus top 3 overall prospects and look like stars so far, plus Corbin Carroll I think, and Chourio’s talent upside seems pretty comparable to theirs, so this is a pretty smart gamble for Mikwaukee, IMO. They’re getting 4 free agent years from him if he turns out to be a star caliber player, which they would probably have little chance at if they wait and he hits the ground running and quickly becomes a stud with a ticking free agent clock.
They should be operating under the belief he’s a Brewer for a decade. If he’s gone after eight it means something went wrong developmentally. They should not be rushing him. He can spend most of 2024, if need be, in AAA and he’s still theirs for another nine years. The contract and when he debuts should not be linked.
Definitely a risky move but if the Brew Crew’s FO is correct in their assessment of his trajectory and hit on this move, he could be something akin to their Acuna. I kinda dig it and wish my O’s would take some calculated gambles like this (albeit a bit more modest if possible), like maybe with C Samuel Basallo if he picks up right where he left off in 2023 (.313/.402/.551 with 20 bombs across A, A+, and AA) next year.
But yeah, congrats on getting PAID and good luck, JC.
Basallo is tough because if he’s a C—are we even gonna keep him? With AR around for 4 more years—idk. He feels like a chip
Basallo could split time at C and DH with Adley but he is most likely a 1B/DH ultimately anyway, but even then, he’s still a keeper, IMO. He looks like an absolute beast and should be almost as untouchable as Holliday.
Great deal for the Brewers. Of course as usual we have the jealous people in here who can’t stand that another great prospect is getting paid his millions. And one guy referring to Chourio as an unknown player, lol. They were saying the same stuff last year when Corbin Carroll got his contract with the D-Backs. And how did that work out?
The deal looks fair to both sides. There’s risk/rewoard potential for each side.
Funny how Chourio is signing this deal the same day Kelenic gets traded. Especially when you consider it was the choice by Kelenic to reject a similar contract offer that made it possible for the Mariners to leverage his remaining years of control into a salary dump. Had he signed that deal, Jarred would be making millions more in 2024-2028, instead of sitting a year away from getting to arbitration, while one of the other players being dumped (Evan White) was a guy who did take the money prior to debuting with the Mariners in 2020. So you’re seeing all the various scenarios play out on the day Chourio commits his future to the Brewers!
I don’t think a lot of people are evaluating the risk vs. reward correctly here. The risk for Chourio is very high. Anybody remember Delmon Young? Young was a fast, stud center fielder with more power, a better hit tool, and more plate discipline than Chourio.
The Brewers already have 6 years of team control for Chourio. What would that cost if Chourio has a great rookie year? The Brewers could have bought out his remaining control and those two years of free agency for little more than they’re already spending.
This was a reckless and unnecessary move. The chances Chourio outplays the value in this contract is minimal. Setting Chourio as Mookie Betts, which is fricken insane.
2024 – $700k
2025 – $700k
2026 – $2MM (Super 2)
2027 – $10MM Arb 2
2028 – $20MM Arb 3
2029 – $27MM Arb 4
Total 6 years, $62MM
Sign Chourio to buyout team control and add a year after a great rookie campaign. Total 7 yrs $72MM
2024 – $700k
2025 – $8MM
2026 – $8MM
2027 – $10MM
2028 – $12MM
2029 – $15MM
2030 – $18MM
In both scenarios, risk is dramatically reduced while the cost is basically only the years of control. If Chourio becomes a super stud, the Brewers can get immense value for trading him before his final year in both instances.
The only way the Brewers win this is if Chourio becomes a perennial MVP candidate with the high likelihood he becomes a Delmon Young or worse. Top 3 prospect rank 2013+
2013 – Jurickson Profar, Dylan Bundy, Oscar Taveras
2014 – Byron Buxton, Xander Bogaerts, Oscar Taveras
2015 – Byron Buxton, Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa
2016 – Corey Seager, Byron Buxton, Lucas Giolito
2017 – Andrew Benintendi, Yoan Moncada, Gleyber Torres
2018 – Ronald Acuna, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Eloy Jimenez
2019 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Eloy Jimenez
2020 – Wander Franco, Gavin Lux, Luis Robert Jr.
2021 – Wander Franco, Adley Ruschman, Spencer Torkelson
2022 – Bobby Witt Jr., Adley Ruschman, Julio Rodriquez
Some tragedy, some legal disasters, some flame outs and some injury fall out, but quite a few names of guys who are just not worth the contract…
For a small market team like the Brewers, they cannot afford multiple bad contracts. If Chourio doesn’t pan out, this move will cripple them.
You can’t bank on the super 2 anymore. If Chourio hits the ground running then he’s getting the full year of service time unless the Brewers plan on keeping him down until it’s nearly impossible for that to occur.
I’m giving the Brewers the absolute best case scenarios for their outcomes. Even under the best case scenario and Chourio turns into Mookie Betts, the Brewers still don’t win by much. That’s the point.
You aren’t figuring in the salary savings for the two free agent years bought out. Keeping with the Mookie Betts theme, it brings the total to 8 years and $122-132 MM. $40 to $50 MM in savings. Add in two years of team options at a reported $20 MM a year and there’s another $20-30 MM in savings.
Ten years, $122 MM or ten years, $180-190 MM.
I was comparing team control years. The “what if” scenario. Of you could read my post where I write:
“In both scenarios, risk is dramatically reduced while the cost is basically only the years of control.”
Yes. If Chourio is a perennial MVP candidate and arguably the best player in all of MLB for the next 8 years, the Brewers might win a little bit on the big end, but btw, Betts is currently making $25MM/yr. Same as the options. All you can do is count AAV during the years of control. So Betts is cheaper than Chourio’s options, too as Betts made less than Chourio in his option years.
Sorry to point out an error on your part, but Betts is scheduled to make $30 MM in 2024. Goes up to $35 MM in 2028. And the options on Chourio are reported to be at $20 MM a season.
The point of this extension is to buy out 2-4 years of free agency for far less than he would get on the open market.
What are you talking about? Betts started in 2015. 10yrs is 2024…
Also, let’s not pretend Chourio is going to be the best player in baseball before he’s taken a single at bat.
Far more likely he never exceeds a 3-4 WAR season in his career.
Bett’s figure includes the portion of his $65 MM signing bonus being paid in 2024 ($5 MM).
Also, let’s not pretend that Chourio is going to be a complete bust. If he hits .275 BA and 30/30? I’ll take that. Only four players went 30/30 last year (2 with a BA over .275). Only 8 went 25/25 (four with BA over .275).
Hmm, 3-4 WAR. Considering 1 WAR is worth about $4.5 MM, a 4 WAR player is worth about $18 MM. Over 8 years, that’s about $144 MM in value. $62 MM in savings over those 8 years.
A player that hit .251 with 22 HR and 8 SB just signed for $15 MM a year. If the two $25 MM options are picked up, that would average to about $13 MM a year for Chourio. Chourio putting up those numbers would make him a major bust, and it would still end up saving the Brewers almost $20 MM compared to that figure.