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Jackson Chourio

Brewers Sign Jackson Chourio To Eight-Year Extension

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The Brewers have officially announced that they have signed outfield prospect Jackson Chourio to an eight-year extension that runs through 2031 plus two club options for 2032 and 2033. Previous reporting has indicated the guarantee is $82MM, with the options each valued at $25MM. There are also some unknown incentives, which could allow him to max out at $142.5MM if he hits them all and both options are picked up. The options come with $2MM buyouts.

The deal is the largest ever offered to a player prior to their major league debut, surpassing the six-year, $50MM guarantee the White Sox gave to Luis Robert Jr. prior to the 2020 season. While Chourio, 19, has played just six games above the Double-A level to this point in his young career, it’s easy to see why this level of confidence in the youngster. Chourio is a consensus top-three prospect in the sport, with only Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday ranked above him consistently by prospect outlets. The deal will keep Chourio under contract through at least 2030 while extending his potential window of team control through 2032, his age-29 season.

Chourio signed with Milwaukee out of Venezuela for a $1.8MM bonus back in 2021 and immediately made an impression during his professional debut with a .286/.386/.447 slash line in 45 Dominican Summer League games at just 17 years old. His stateside debut the following season went even better as the youngster slashed a phenomenal .288/.342/.538 in 439 trips to the plate split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels. That performance already made Chourio a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport prior to the 2023 season, and he did little to disprove his status among the game’s elite prospect talents, slashing .280/.336/.467 in 559 plate appearances in his return to Double-A before his aforementioned cup of coffee in Triple-A. While he received just 24 plate appearances at the minors’ highest level, Chourio did not look overmatched with a slash line of .333/.375/.476.

With Chourio entering the 2024 season under guaranteed contract, there will be little incentive for the Brewers to send him back to Triple-A to start the regular season so long as he doesn’t look overmatched during big league camp this spring. The deal takes away the possibility of the club securing an extra year of team control, while the club could stand to gain a draft pick from the prospect promotion incentive if Chourio secures a full year of service time as a rookie eligible player and wins the Rookie of the Year award in 2024 or places in the top three of MVP voting before he would’ve been eligible for arbitration.

That said, Chourio starting the season with the big league club isn’t necessarily guaranteed. After all, the youngster has minimal experience at the Triple-A level and the Brewers already have a relatively crowded outfield mix even before considering their top prospect. Christian Yelich figures to get everyday at-bats in either left field or as the club’s DH, leaving just two spots for Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, Tyrone Taylor, and Blake Perkins. On the other hand, only Mitchell posted an above-average offensive season by wRC+ in 2023 among that group, leaving plenty of room for Chourio to establish himself as one of the club’s best options. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers could attempt to leverage that crop of young outfield options on the trade market this offseason, improving the club in other areas while clearing up the logjam on the outfield grass.

Securing Chourio’s services for the next eight-to-ten seasons gives the Brewers some additional security regarding their potential budding superstar. Milwaukee has faced several difficult decisions regarding star players on the verge of free agency this offseason, from non-tendering ace right-hander Brandon Woodruff to considering trades for Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes. If retained into next season, both Adames and Burnes are likely to depart in free agency next winter. By extending Chourio now, the Brewers take on the risk that their teenage phenom doesn’t reach his potential at the big league level in exchange for avoiding a similar situation to the one they’re currently facing down the road.

It’s not currently clear if this deal will impact the club’s thinking with regards to Burnes and Adames, but it shouldn’t have much of an impact from a financial perspective. While Chourio’s contract has an AAV of $10.25MM for luxury tax purposes, the club is more than $100MM below the first luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource. What’s more, early-career extensions tend to have salaries that ramp up over the course of the extension. In the likely event that Chourio’s deal has a similar structure, the youngster’s salary figures to be relatively low in 2024 despite the healthy guarantee.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were closing in on an agreement. Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel first reported the deal would be in the $80MM range over eight years. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the specifics of the $82MM guarantee and club options with $2MM buyouts. Rosenthal reported the option values and Heyman had the potential max payout of the deal.

The Opener: Winter Meetings, Chourio, Miley

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With the Winter Meetings underway in Nashville, Tennessee, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball today:

1. The Winter Meetings get rolling

Outside of one major trade on Sunday night – the Braves acquired Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners – the lead-in to MLB’s Winter Meetings was relatively quiet. That was to be expected, however. The first day is often the slowest, as executives and agents are just arriving and getting ready for the busy week ahead.

Now, with the calendar flipped to Monday, perhaps the hot stove will really start to sizzle. Forty-three of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents are still unsigned, and none of Anthony Franco’s Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates have yet been dealt. It’s hard to believe that will remain the case for long.

2. Brewers to officially announce Jackson Chourio’s contract extension

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Brewers will host a press conference today during the Winter Meetings to officially announce Jackson Chourio’s record-smashing contract extension.

The 19-year-old top prospect will make a minimum of $82MM over the next eight years and can earn as much as $142.5MM over ten if the Brewers exercise both of their team options and Chourio maxes out all his incentives. It is far and away the largest contract ever signed by a player before making his MLB debut.

Presumably, the Brewers plan to put Chourio on the 2024 Opening Day roster, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him starting in center the next time they take the field. The big question now is if the Brewers will keep spending to put together a more competitive team around their young phenom.

3. Will Wade Miley be the next free agent to sign?

In more Brewers news, the team is reportedly close to re-signing veteran starter Wade Miley. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to surmise that a deal was on the horizon, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Sunday evening that the two sides were “moving closer” to an agreement.

No figures have yet been reported, but it’s worth mentioning that Miley rejected his side of a $10MM mutual option with Milwaukee earlier this offseason, instead collecting a $1MM buyout. Presumably, the new contract they are discussing will guarantee him a bigger payday than the one he turned down.

NL Central Notes: Chourio, Pirates, De La Cruz, Cubs, Glasnow

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Jackson Chourio’s impending extension with the Brewers is expected to be made official within the next few days, and the eight-year, $82MM pact will give the 19-year-old Chourio the largest contract ever given to a (non-NPB) player prior to his big league debut.  “It’s happened very quick — way quicker than I thought,” Chourio told reporter Andrew Wagner (X link) while the outfielder and agent Cesar Suarez attended a Milwaukee Bucks game yesterday, though Chourio and Suarez both stopped short of confirming an agreement was in place.

“Obviously I’m very happy that the organization believes in me and thinks so highly of me,” Chourio said.  “At the same time, there’s been a lot of hard work and now I’m getting rewarded so I want to continue to [work hard] and continue to succeed with the team.”

Regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects, Chourio has looked great during his three pro seasons, though his Triple-A experience consists of only six games.  The contract makes it likely but not a guarantee that Chourio will be the Brewers’ starting center fielder on Opening Day, yet even if he does need a bit more seasoning in the minors before making his big league debut, there’s no doubt Chourio is a huge part of Milwaukee’s future.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Pirates’ signing of Ali Sanchez this week added a fourth catcher to the Bucs’ 40-man roster, as Sanchez joins Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, and Jason Delay.  This seeming surplus makes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wonder if the Pirates are adding depth in advance of a trade, perhaps even a headline-grabbing move that would see Rodriguez dealt for a controllable young pitcher.  Of course, Sanchez’s addition could also mean that the Pirates have again changed their mind about Davis being an option behind the plate, as the former first overall pick played right field almost exclusively during his 2023 rookie season.
  • The Reds have so many promising young infielders both in the minors and already on the MLB roster that it remains to be seen how exactly Cincinnati will line up these players around the diamond.  Elly De La Cruz has no problem with a potential position change, telling the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith that “wherever the team needs me, that’s where I’m going to play….For me, it doesn’t matter where I play.  I just want to play. I’m going to have fun wherever I am.  I just want to play as much as possible.”  De La Cruz played shortstop and third base during his rookie season, with public defensive metrics favoring his work at the hot corner.  Though Edwin Arroyo might end up being the longer-term defensive answer at shortstop, the Reds seem likely to use De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte at third base and shortstop in some fashion in 2024, though Matt McLain could very well figure into the shortstop plans as well if he isn’t at second base (or if Jonathan India isn’t traded).
  • Tyler Glasnow and the Cubs were linked in trade rumors earlier this week, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes that “nothing has changed too much over the past week” and “nothing seemed close to done, certainly not with the Cubs” on the Glasnow front as of yesterday.  In terms of what the Rays might want, Sharma believes Tampa Bay is looking for a controllable young pitcher as the headliner in a Glasnow trade package.  This might not necessarily be a fit for a Chicago team that is trying to build its young pitching depth, though Glasnow has been on the Cubs’ radar as a trade candidate for a few years.

Brewers Making Progress On Extension Talks With Top Prospect Jackson Chourio

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Nov. 29: The two parties are gaining momentum on what would indeed be a record-setting contract extension, reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Hogg suggests a framework in the eight-year, $80MM range could be in play, with multiple options and a presumably healthy slate of incentives also coming into play. The two sides have been discussing a potential deal since late in the minor league season, Hogg adds, indicating that the ostensibly looming agreement would mark the culmination of months of negotiation.

Nov. 28: The Brewers and outfield prospect Jackson Chourio are discussing an extension, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though the deal is not done, the report states it would set a new benchmark for an extension signed by a player with no major league experience. It’s unclear if the deal is close to being done or if talks are still in early stages. Chourio is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Chourio is still quite young, as he doesn’t turn 20 years old until March, but he has vaulted himself to the top echelons of prospect lists thanks to his all-around contributions. He spent most of 2023 in Double-A, getting into 122 games at that level. He hit 22 home runs in that time and stole 43 bases. His .280/.336/.467 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 112, at a level where the average age was almost 24. He’s also considered an above-average defender in center field. He received a late promotion to Triple-A and got into six games there.

It’s also possible that his batting line from this year masks his true talent. His scouting report at Baseball America notes that the Double-A Southern League experimented with a pre-tacked ball which led to increased pitch movement and disadvantaged hitters, but they switched to a traditional ball in July. Chourio hit .239/.304/.410 prior to the switch but .323/.380/.544 against the traditional ball.

Chourio is currently considered the #2 prospect in the league, behind Jackson Holliday, by BA, MLB Pipeline and the most recent list from Keith Law of The Athletic. He’s currently listed #3 at FanGraphs and the most recent list from ESPN.

It appears that the Brewers have plenty of faith in Chourio’s ability, despite the fact that he has just six games of experience above Double-A and is still a teenager for a few more months. The exact details of the contract being discussed aren’t known, but Rosenthal indicates it will top the previous benchmark for players who have yet to reach the majors.

As noted by Rosenthal, five different players have received extensions prior to their MLB debuts. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that, of those five deals, the two most lucrative were both given out by the White Sox. In March of 2019, they gave Eloy Jiménez a six-year, $43MM deal, then topped that the following January by giving Luis Robert Jr. $50MM over the same six-year term. The other three players are Jon Singleton, Scott Kingery and Evan White, who each received far more modest deals.

There’s certainly risk in giving out a significant deal to a player who hasn’t proven himself at the big league level, but the Brewers know that there’s also risk in waiting. Not too long ago, they parted with Josh Hader as he continued to thrive and earn higher salaries via arbitration. There are rumors that they may have to consider a similar path with Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames, who are each about to make eight-figure salaries before reaching free agency after 2024.

If the Brewers are able to get something done with Chourio, it should decrease their chances of finding themselves in a similar position in the future. If the deal goes beyond six years, as Rosenthal reports it will, it would also increase his chances of cracking the Opening Day roster in 2024. The club would then have no incentive to keep him down in the minors to start the year and try to gain an extra year of control.

If the club considers Chourio a viable option to start next year in the big leagues, it could perhaps give them an outfield surplus to trade from. They already have Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor in the mix for playing time, with Blake Perkins and Chris Roller on the roster as depth options. Making someone in that group available on the trading block could perhaps allow the club to upgrade its infield or pitching staff during an offseason where there are few impact bats available and the demand for pitching is incredibly high.

Most extensions generally ramp up in terms of salary over time, vaguely resembling what a player might have received in the normal course of going through arbitration. The player gets some certainty over future earnings and protection against a significant injury while the club gains some extra control over the player’s future. Other than Yelich, the Brewers have very little on their long-term books. Aaron Ashby is signed through 2027 with two club options, while Freddy Peralta’s deal goes through 2024 with two club options.

Though there have been plenty of rumors about Burnes and Adames being dealt, it’s generally been expected that those theoretical deals would bring back MLB-ready talent to allow the club to continue competing despite their budgetary limitations. They clearly think Chourio can be a big part of their ability to keep the good times rolling and hope to keep him around for a while. For Chourio, he could potentially sign a 10-year deal and still reach free agency before his 30th birthday. Whether the two sides can find something that works for everyone remains to be seen.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays’ Stadium Agreement

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

Check out our past episodes!

Big Hype Prospects: Holliday, Merrill, Jobe, Chourio, Crow-Armstrong

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Big Jackson Prospects is back with another edition starring members of the new Jackson Four.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Holliday, 19, SS, BAL (AAA)
(A/A+/AA) 490 PA, 10 HR, 23 SB, .333/.451/.517

Holliday is the top-performing minor leaguer among players with more than 400 plate appearances. His 168 wRC+ is all the more impressive when considering his age relative to his competition. The question now on everyone’s lips – will he make his Major League debut this year? To me, that will depend on how he does in the next few weeks. One factor is outside of his control: will the Orioles have an injury to open a playoff roster spot for him? He’s likelier to get a taste of the Majors if he’s expected to contribute to the playoff push.

To date, Holliday has relied on hard, low-angle contact and high BABIPs to fuel his offensive success. Such an approach tends to be less effective in the Majors. At Triple-A, we’ll get our first public look at his exit velocities. I’ve heard some rumors but haven’t gotten my hands on the actual data yet.

Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (AA)
(A+/AA) 488 PA, 15 HR, 15 SB, .283/.331/.454

Merrill is having a nice time of it in Double-A. He was reportedly considered for a promotion to the Majors about 10 days back. The Padres seemingly decided against the aggressive move. As it stands, he’s positioned himself to skip a return engagement in Double-A next season. As to where he fits in the Padres long-term plans, he might need to wait for Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth to open the door at second base. The FanGraphs prospect crew described Merrill as “Michael Brantley, except at shortstop,” and that’s exactly how he’s trending.

Jackson Jobe, 20, SP, DET (A+)
(A+) 30 IP, 12.30 K/9, 0.90 BB/9, 3.90 ERA

Jobe is a spin-rate boss with four average or better offerings. His weapons have allowed him to live in the strike zone in the low minors. A test in Double-A to open 2024 should help with the development of his command. Encouragingly, the Tigers are using Jobe like a traditional starter down the stretch. Since reaching High-A, he’s faced 20 or more batters in four of six outings. Compare that to other top pitching prospects around the league. Jobe hasn’t pitched much since he was drafted in 2021. It’s possible we see him finish out his season in the Arizona Fall League.

Jackson Chourio, 19, OF, MIL (AA)
(AA) 509 PA, 21 HR, 37 SB, .282/.336/.471

One of the few upper-echelon prospects younger than Holliday, Chourio has spent the entire season in Double-A where he’s held his own against much older competition. He’s been particularly effective of late, delivering four home runs and a .998 OPS in his last 45 plate appearances. Anyone hoping to see him promoted into the NL Central playoff race shouldn’t hold their breath. His defensive skills remain a work in progress. While he has the raw tools to stick in center field, his reads are still inconsistent. Were his glove ahead of his bat, he’d have a better case for a cheeky late-season promotion.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 21, OF, CHC (AAA)
(AA/AAA) 474 PA, 18 HR, 35 SB, .278/.364/.499

Unlike Chourio, Crow-Armstrong’s impressive defensive ability must be weighing heavy on the playoff-aspiring Cubs. Though they’ve gotten good results from Mike Tauchman, that feels more like found money than a sustainable source of production. A promotion for Crow-Armstrong would be a lock if not for one bugaboo – a 30.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A. There’s considerable swing-and-miss to PCA’s game. He has pop, emerging discipline, and plenty of speed to make up for his lack of contact. There are some roster considerations working against Crow-Armstrong since he’s not Rule 5 eligible until after 2024. If the Central battle remains close come mid-month, I expect to see him.

Three More

Ronny Mauricio, NYM (22): In just 11 plate appearances, Mauricio has already delivered the Mets hardest-hit ball of 2023. There’s no question the switch-hitter shoots lasers. The issue is whether or not he makes enough contact to sustain a regular role. Though athletic, he’s not known for his defensive ability.

Emmet Sheehan, LAD (23): In the wake of today’s news, Sheehan has elevated importance for a Dodgers club with only two veteran starters. In limited action, he hasn’t had confidence in his changeup. He needs that to be his moneymaker. Below-average command hints at a relief future.

Masyn Winn, STL (21): When we covered Winn at the time of his promotion, we noted the bat didn’t seem ready despite a broad base of skills. He’s struggled to a 6 wRC+ in 49 plate appearances. Winn appears to be making a classic first-timer mistake – selling out for any contact at the expense of quality contact. He still has a dozen ways to grow into an average or better player.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

MLB Announces Futures Game Rosters

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Major League Baseball announced rosters for the 2023 Futures Game this evening. The contest — a seven-inning exhibition between some of the sport’s most talented minor leaguers — kicks off All-Star festivities in Seattle on Saturday, July 8.

As Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com notes, 28 of the 50 players on the roster are included on MLB Pipeline’s recent Top 100 prospects list. Six of Pipeline’s top ten will participate. The full rosters (MLB Pipeline prospect rank included, if applicable):

American League

National League

Sorting Through The Brewers’ Outfield Options

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The Brewers’ outfield is going to have a different flavor this year compared to 2022. Lorenzo Cain was released in June of last year, Andrew McCutchen reached free agency at season’s end and has since signed with the Pirates, while Hunter Renfroe was dealt to the Angels. That leaves room for some fresh faces to step up and take over. Let’s take a look at some of the options.

The Lock

Christian Yelich

Yelich, 31, is the one constant in the Milwaukee outfield picture, as his contract runs through 2028. He was one of the best players in the league in 2018 and 2019, winning National League Most Valuable Player in the first of those two seasons. In each of those two campaigns, he posted a wRC+ of 167 or higher, stole at least 22 bases and was worth 7.2 fWAR or more. His production has dropped off from those incredible heights over the past three years, but he’s still a solidly above-average player. Last year, he hit 14 home runs, stole 19 bases and walked in 13.1% of his plate appearances. That led to a .252/.355/.383 batting line, a 111 wRC+ and 2.3 fWAR.

His contract and past performance ensure that he’ll be part of the team on a regular basis, though he’ll likely serve as the designated hitter a few times, leaving plenty of outfield playing time for others. The last time he played the field in more than 115 games in a season was 2019. Since the club is invested in Yelich for the long haul, they’ll want to continue giving him the occasional breather to keep him healthy. Advanced defensive metrics are also split on his glovework, with Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both grading him as subpar last year and for his career, while Ultimate Zone Rating is much more encouraged.

Short-Term Vets

Jesse Winker

Winker, 29, is looking for a bounce back after a down season. In 2020 and 2021 with the Reds, he hit 36 home runs and produced a batting line of .292/.392/.552. Of all the hitters in the league with at least 650 plate appearances in that stretch, his 145 wRC+ was one of the 10 best. His work was even stronger with the platoon advantage, as he hit righties to the tune of .321/.417/.619 for a 167 wRC+, with only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper ahead of him in that department. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2022 but struggled, hitting just 14 home runs last year and slashing .219/.344/.344 overall for a wRC+ of 109.

The Brewers acquired him as part of the Kolten Wong trade and will hope that a second change of scenery will suit Winker better than the first. It’s possible that injuries played a role as Winker required left knee surgery and a second procedure to address a bulging disc in his neck in October, though Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times has also reported that Winker’s work habits were a concern in Seattle. Regardless of the cause, Milwaukee is considered to be a much more favorable offensive environment than Seattle, which should work in his favor.

It remains to be seen how much the Brewers want to rely on Winker as a defender. His glovework has generally been rated poorly in his career and his numbers declined in that department in 2022. That could have been impacted by his health situation, but it’s possible he spends more time as the DH than in the field. However, as mentioned, Yelich will likely see his share of time in the DH slot as well, which will likely require Winker to spend at least a bit of time in the field. Winker is slated for free agency at season’s end.

Brian Anderson

Anderson, 30 in May, is also looking for a bounceback like Winker. From 2018-20, he hit 42 home runs for the Marlins and produced a line of .266/.350/.436, 115 wRC+. But the past two seasons have seen injuries diminish his playing time and performance. He got into just 165 total games over 2021 and 2022, hitting .233/.321/.359 for a 93 wRC+. He was eligible for one more pass through arbitration but the Marlins non-tendered him instead, with Anderson then signing a one-year deal with the Brewers.

Anderson has a bit more time at third base in his career than the outfield, and he told reporters last month he expects to see more time at third base than in the outfield. Milwaukee has Luis Urías to man the hot corner, through. That should leave Anderson in the mix for some outfield time, perhaps in a platoon role. He hits from the right side while Yelich and Winker both his left-handed, as do some of the guys below him on this list. Anderson has modest reverse splits for his career but did hit lefties better last year. Defensively, in over 1,500 outfield innings, Anderson has a -8 OAA but 8 DRS and 9.3 UZR. Even though he was hurt last year, his arm strength was still considered to be in the 99th percentile by Statcast, which could serve him well at third base or in the outfield.

Controllable Guys With Some Experience

Tyrone Taylor

Taylor, 29, has been largely a part-time option for the Brewers in recent years but took on a larger role last year as Cain was gradually phased out. He got into 120 games in 2022 and provided enough power to overcome some lackluster work at the plate otherwise. He struck out in 25.2% of his plate appearances and drew walks at just a 5.4% clip, but he did hit 17 long balls in 405 plate appearances. The result was a .233/.286/.442 batting line and a wRC+ of 102.

That work at the plate was just above average but he was much stronger on the other side of the ball. He played all three outfield positions but mostly in center, earning 6 DRS, 6 OAA and 2.0 UZR overall. It wasn’t a superstar performance but was competent in enough areas to produce 2.1 fWAR on the year. He’s set to reach arbitration for the first time after this year and can be retained through the 2026 campaign.

Garrett Mitchell

Mitchell, 24, was only drafted in 2020 but has already cracked the majors. He hit .287/.377/.426 between Double-A and Triple-A last year for a wRC+ of 118. He was selected to the major league club in August and was somehow even better in the big leagues. He hit .311/.373/.459 for a wRC+ of 136 in his first 68 MLB plate appearances. That’s a small sample size, however, and he did strike out 41.2% of the time. His defensive work was also graded as above average and he stole eight bases in 28 games.

Mitchell is a real wild card in this bunch since his 2023 could seemingly go in many different ways. On the one hand, he’s shown impressive results in all facets of the game and could be an immediate center field solution, pushing Taylor into a corner role. On the other hand, he has played less than 50 games above Double-A, the strikeouts are a real concern and his .548 batting average on balls in play will require serious regression.

Skye Bolt/Monte Harrison

Bolt, 29, and Harrison, 27, are in a similar boat to each other. They have both posted some solid minor league numbers but struggled in the majors. They’re now both out of options and had to settle for minor league deals for 2023. Bolt has a career batting line of .156/.205/.266 while Harrison’s is .176/.253/.294. They’ll likely only get a shot if the club gets bit by the injury bug a few times. Neither has reached arbitration yet and could theoretically be retained well into the future if they carve out a role.

Infielders That Can Play Some Outfield

Brice Turang/Mike Brosseau/Keston Hiura

With Wong having been traded to the Mariners, the second base job is up for grabs. Turang is one of the club’s top prospects and had a strong season in Triple-A last year, making him the favorite to take the job at the keystone despite not having cracked the majors yet. He played a bit of center field in Triple-A last year but is primarily a middle infielder. Brosseau can play all over and will be in a super utility role, allowing the club to pencil him in for any regular that requires an off-day. Hiura’s not quite as versatile, having only played first base, second base and left field in his big league career so far. He has tremendous power but has struck out in 36% of his plate appearances thus far, which will make it hard for him to carve out meaningful playing time.

On The Cusp Of A Debut

Blake Perkins

Perkins, 26, has long been considered a glove-first player but his bat seemingly took a step forward last year. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A in the Yankees’ system, he stole 21 bases, hit 15 home runs and slashed .246/.357/.456 for a wRC+ of 120. He wasn’t added to that club’s roster at any point but the Brewers were intrigued enough to sign him onto their 40-man roster in November. He’ll likely be in the minors waiting for an opportunity to get called up, but he should have a decent floor thanks to his defense and speed. If the power he showed last year was a real development, he could be a well-rounded contributor.

Sal Frelick

Frelick, 23 in April, was the club’s first round pick in the 2021 draft but has quickly climbed the minor league ladder. Last year, he went from High-A to Double-A to Triple-A, hitting .331/.403/.480 for a wRC+ of 137, stealing 24 bases in the process. He doesn’t have much power but he’s very tough to strikeout, hitting 11 home runs last year but getting punched out at just an 11.2% rate. He’s still not on the 40-man roster but he’s considered one of the club’s top prospects and could force his way into the picture soon.

Joey Wiemer

Wiemer, 24 this weekend, is the inverse of Frelick with big power but strikeout concerns. He hit 21 home runs last year between Double-A and Triple-A but went down on strikes 26.8% of the time. The result was a .256/.336/.465 batting line and a 109 wRC+. Despite being a power hitter, he has sneaky speed, swiping 31 bags last year. Like Frelick, he’s not on the 40-man yet but is on the doorstep. Both he and Frelick are considered capable of playing center field.

Top Prospect That Could Show Up This Year

Jackson Chourio

Chourio is arguably the most exciting of this whole bunch but he might require patience since he’s very young, still over a month away from his 19th birthday. Last year, despite being just 18 years old, he went through Low-A, High-A and Double-A, hitting 20 home runs and stealing 16 bases in 99 games. His .288/.342/.538 batting line resulted in a 135 wRC+ and he got strong reviews for his glovework in center field.

Based on those excellent results at such a young age, he’s now considered the #3 prospect in the league by Baseball America, #8 by MLB Pipeline and #5 at FanGraphs. Given his youth and the fact that he’s played just six Double-A games, he won’t be a solution for the Brewers in the short term. Even reaching the big leagues by the end of the season seems like a long shot, but it probably can’t be completely discounted given the tremendous talent he seems to possess.

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There’s a ton of young talent here, including about a half dozen plausible center fielders. That puts the Brewers in great shape for the long haul, though it might take some time to allow these guys to sort themselves out. Chourio isn’t close, while Wiemer, Frelick and Perkins still haven’t made it to the majors. Mitchell had a great debut but will need a longer stress test. Taylor should be solid for now but isn’t elite at anything and could be surpassed by the younger guys in time. Winker and Anderson will both be free agents after this year but it seems like the club could easily replace them from within.

In the future, it seems likely the Brewers will not only have a strong outfield but will likely have enough options to make trades that address other areas of the roster. We already saw one such move when they included Esteury Ruiz in the three-team deal that netted them William Contreras as their potential catcher of the future. Not all young players end up panning out as hoped, of course, but the quality and quantity both appear to be strong here. If the club can keep pace with the Cardinals in the division this year and there’s enough development from this group, perhaps the Brewers could be key players for deadline deals to help them push to return to the postseason after missing last year for the first time since 2017.

Big Hype Prospects: Chourio, De La Cruz, Harrison, Tovar, Tiedemann

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Trade deadline content is finally in the rearview mirror. Baseball America put out a spicy August update to their Top 100 rankings. So too did The Athletic’s Keith Law. We’ll talk about some of the biggest movers and discrepancies.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A+)
72 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .270/.333/.429

Chourio began generating hype during extended Spring Training when it became apparent that he possessed all the traits teams look for in Statcast-era prospects. Baseball America recently ranked him as the game’s second-best prospect while Law tagged him third. Either way, it’s quite the climb for a player who was unranked prior to the season. He made short work of Low-A opponents (.324/.373/.600), albeit with an elevated strikeout rate. Upon promotion to High-A, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate while holding his own against much older competition. He’s currently on pace to reach the Majors as a 20-year-old and might even debut next season (unlikely). He’s already a big league caliber center fielder. We’re just waiting for his bat to prove it at each stop along the way.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, SS, CIN (AA)
84 PA, 5 HR, 7 SB, .304/.345/.620

After his 2021 breakout, which was built upon the twin pillars of loud Statcast measurables and enticing results in the lowest levels, De La Cruz has only improved upon his success. Thanks to his size (6’5″) and incredible athleticism, comparisons to Oneil Cruz are nearly unavoidable. Even Fernando Tatis Jr. comes to mind. That’s because, despite his youth, De La Cruz is clearly a man among boys. You can’t help but notice when he takes the field. Naysayers will point to poor discipline and hefty whiff rates. His proponents will break out the numbers. He has 25 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 390 plate appearances this season. His contact profile is best described as “laser show,” complete with a .389 BABIP. Nobody is even sure that he won’t develop discipline against actual competition. He’s yet to experience true adversity.

Law is sold, ranking de la Cruz eighth overall. The Baseball America crew – who were among the first to move on him last season – remain a bit more cautious. He’s 22nd on their list.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AA)
57.1 IP, 13.19 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, 2.83 ERA

During the course of this season, both of the aforementioned list-makers bumped Harrison up from the back end of their Top 100 to within the Top 20. Harrison’s results speak for themselves. He’s dominated Double-A competition as a 20-year-old. (Today is his 21st birthday!) His slider is one of the most effective breaking pitches in the minors, in part due to a deceptive delivery. Said deceptiveness could factor into his elevated walk rate, which will be something to watch as he continues to ascend the ladder. He might be the kind of “wild” that plays better in the Majors than the minors (see Camilo Doval as an example). Harrison has a floor as a shutdown reliever, but he should comfortably stick in the rotation.

Ezequiel Tovar, 21, SS, COL (AA)
295 PA, 13 HR, 17 SB, .318/.386/.545

Per Baseball America, Tovar rated as the ninth-best prospect in the Rockies’ system entering this season. Given the general antipathy for Rockies prospects these days, it goes without saying he was unranked on leaguewide Top 100 lists. He’s improved upon a balanced approach as a hitter – both in the types of contact he makes and the directionality of his batted balls. Tovar’s even added a touch of plate discipline. While just about every hitter is better at Coors Field, Tovar is the sort of player who can take maximum advantage of the spacious venue.

Tovar is currently sidelined with a groin injury. He’s now 14th on the Baseball America list and 25th for The Athletic.

Ricky Tiedemann, 19, SP, TOR (AA)
(A+) 37.2 IP, 12.90 K/9, 2.87 BB/9, 2.39 ERA

Tiedemann, soon to turn 20, has pitched at three levels this season for a total of 70.2 innings. He recently debuted at Double-A with three near-flawless innings. Like Tovar, he entered the season as the ninth-ranked prospect in his organization’s system. Now, he’s 31st in the game for Baseball America and 41st for Law. If he maintains his results, he could soon be considered a Top 10 overall prospect. I get the sense publicly available reports haven’t yet caught up with Tiedemann. They certainly don’t match his results. There are references to below average command and a mix of three “above-average” offerings. If the command is truly minus and he doesn’t have at least one double-plus pitch, I would expect higher ERAs. Either he’s filling the zone with hittable pitches and getting away with it, or his stuff dominates in-zone, OR his command isn’t actually minus. A fourth alternative – he’s been a little lucky over some small samples.

In any event, Tiedemann’s rise is rapid. It’s telling that he wasn’t traded at the deadline.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson has already been covered ad nauseum in this column. He’s the number one prospect per Baseball America. Law rates him as second best. While this is technically his age 21 season, his June 29 birthday means he’s a young 21. His advanced feel for hitting is all the more impressive.

Corbin Carroll, ARI (21): Carroll too has seen plenty of favorable words on these pages. He’s Law’s top prospect and ranks fifth for the BA staff. An interesting juxtaposition with Henderson, Carroll is an old 21-year-old. He’ll turn 22 in a little over a week. Of course, without the lost COVID year and a lengthy injury in 2021, Carroll would probably be in the Majors right now.

Noelvi Marte, CIN (20): I’ve had some interesting behind-the-scenes conversations about Marte. Earlier in the season, a source suggested to me that Marte might be overrated because he punished less physically developed opponents. The implication was that he might cool against more advanced competition. After relaying this detail, I received pushback from a separate source disputing that notion. This is what analysts mean when they say a prospect is contentious. In any event, Marte held serve on Law’s list, checking in at 12th. Baseball America places him 35th – a slight improvement over their last update. Since joining the Reds’ High-A affiliate, he’s batting .229/.282/.429 with two home runs and a steal in 39 plate appearances.

Evan Carter, TEX (19): Carter was making headway towards Top 100 lists in early 2021 before a season-ending injury left him stranded with just 146 plate appearances. He ascended to High-A this season and has hit like a champ; .285/.376/.484 with 10 home runs and 22 steals in 395 plate appearances. He has plate discipline and an advanced feel for contact. This is the starter kit for a polished and highly valuable hitter, non-superstar division. BA has him 43rd.

Josh Jung, TEX, (24): This last one isn’t about the rankings (roughly 50th on both lists). Jung is back in action, demonstrating power and discipline over 44 rehab plate appearances. He has three games in Triple-A and could soon reach the Majors. Remember, he was a candidate to make the Rangers out of Spring Training. While they could play service shenanigans to gain control of his age-31 season, it might behoove the club more to get his feet wet.

Editor’s Note: this post was inadvertently published under Steve Adams’ byline at first. Apologies to Brad.

Big Hype Prospects: Jones, Leiter, Alvarez, Chourio, De La Cruz

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This week in Big Hype Prospects, we’ll mostly focus our attention upon invitees to the Futures Game.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Nolan Jones, 24, OF, CLE (AAA)

108 PA, 3 HR, 4 SB, .311/.417/.500

Once on pace to debut during the 2020 season as a 22-year-old, several factors considerably slowed Jones’s ascent. First, he came back rusty from the lost 2020 minor league season, performing particularly poorly in May. He improved as the season progressed and could have arrived in Cleveland last September if not for a season-ending ankle injury in late-August. He also opened the 2022 season on the injured list while recovering from surgery for the same injury. The Guardians finally appear poised to promote him after a month in Triple-A.

Jones is best known for his plate discipline. Expect him to show the same discerning eye as Max Muncy. Jones has a little more swing-and-miss to his game which could manifest in a 30 percent strikeout rate. Whereas Muncy’s swing has plenty of loft, Jones skews heavily towards ground ball contact. He has the raw power to be a 30-homer threat, but his combination of grounders and infrequent contact leave him projected for only 20 home runs per 600 plate appearances. Although he’s always posted exceptional BABIPs in the minors, he can get pull happy. That could open him up to BABIP-killing shifts. Since his game revolves around walks and balls in play, anything that negatively affects his BABIP could also affect how he’s used.

Jack Leiter, 22, SP, TEX (AA)

48.2 IP, 11.10 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 5.36 ERA

Leiter was aggressively assigned to Double-A to start the season, and it hasn’t been an easy transition. Optimists can readily spot encouraging signs. He’s held batters to just 44 hits while recording 60 strikeouts. Unfortunately, he’s also issued 28 walks and hit five batters. Command isn’t expected to be a long-term issue for Leiter, but it is one he’s presently battling. He’s issued 16 walks over his last 19.2 innings.

Fortunately, the recent second-overall pick retains all of his glamorous tools. He features three plus offerings – a rising fastball, curve, and slider. He also has an underdeveloped changeup. He’ll represent the Rangers in the Futures Game.

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)

(AA) 296 PA, 18 HR, .277/.368/.553

With Adley Rutschman graduated, Alvarez is now the consensus top catching prospect in the minors. He was recently promoted to Triple-A where he’s 1-for-10 in 13 plate appearances. He’s the Mets Futures Game representative.

Alvarez is an advanced hitter. Already one of the youngest players at Triple-A, he features plus plate discipline and huge raw power. At times, he sells out for pull-side contact. His minor league batted ball data include low line drive rates which could manifest as a low BABIP in the Majors. That said, he’s on pace to debut early next season as a 21-year-old catcher, a developmental path which tends to lead to storied careers. His bat will need to carry what could be a below average defensive profile. While he’s not bad enough to move off the position, the Mets might opt to use him as a part-time designated hitter to keep his bat in the lineup while allowing certain pitchers to work with a better defender.

Jackson Chourio, 18, OF, MIL (A)

236 PA, 11 HR, 9 SB, .318/.369/.594

Chourio might be the next 20-year-old uber-prospect to debut in the Majors. He will be the youngest participant in the Futures Game. Only 18, he’s already performing impressive feats of strength including three home runs in July. Presently, there’s some swing-and-miss and overaggression to his approach, but not to the extent that either is a problem. We’ll see how these secondary traits develop as he climbs the ladder.

Since earlier this season, I’ve yet to hear or read any description of Chourio that wasn’t effusive in its praise. He’s the hip teenage breakout of the year. MLB Prospect Pipeline actually has him ranked ahead of 2021’s big teenage breakout, Elly De La Cruz. At least one other midseason update will also rank Chourio ahead of De La Cruz.

Elly De La Cruz, 20, 3B/SS, CIN (A+)

268 PA, 18 HR, 26 SB, .302/.357/.597

Speaking of De La Cruz, fantasy baseball enthusiasts are undoubtedly drooling over his combination of power and speed. The switch-hitter produces some of the top exit velocities in the minors. He’s built like Oneil Cruz, albeit two inches shorter. The obvious flaws in his game relate to discipline and whiff rate. He could have exploitable flaws as he ascends the minor league ladder. However, we’ve seen other players with this rare athletic-profile improve their strikeout rate enough to become a superstar. Since June 28, a span of 34 plate appearances, De La Cruz has five home runs and a .387/.441/.903 slash. He might not return to High-A after the Futures Game.

Five More

Yosver Zulueta, TOR (24): Zulueta will appear in the Futures Game after already churning through three levels of the minors. His development has been slowed first by Tommy John surgery and then by a torn ACL. He needs to be placed on the 40-man roster after this season (or exposed to the Rule 5 draft) despite having faced only one batter prior to this year. A former big bonus international free agent, Zulueta could move fast as a high leverage reliever, but he might also have the stuff to start with a Spencer Strider-like two-pitch approach.

DL Hall, BAL (23): Since the last BHP, Hall has pitched twice. He’s totaled 10 innings of one-run ball including just four hits allowed and three walks. He struck out 22 of 38 batters faced. Hall is more than halfway to a career-high in innings. He might be seen as ready to get his feet wet in the Majors as a short-burst starter. Notably, his 5.77 BB/9 in Triple-A could be a barrier to starting long-term. Of qualified pitchers, Dylan Cease ranks last with 4.21 BB/9. Pitchers with higher walk rates don’t pile up innings. Hall will not be attending the Futures Game.

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Henderson is the Orioles Futures Game representative. He’s also jumped into the Top five on the MLB.com Prospect Pipeline. He’s actually in his first funk of the season, batting just .133/.188/.167 with 15 strikeouts over his last seven games (32 PA).

Logan O’Hoppe, PHI (22): The Phillies have left O’Hoppe in Double-A where he’s batting .270/.383/.521 with 14 home runs and five steals in 256 plate appearances. His offensive numbers could be inflated both by Reading and a weak Double-A pitching environment. Either way, he profiles as a future big league regular. If the Phillies remain in contention in the upcoming weeks, he’s their one big, expendable trade chip. He might stay in Double-A through the deadline.

Kyle Harrison, SFG (20): Like many pitching prospects, Harrison’s workload was carefully managed early in the season at High-A. Upon promotion to Double-A, he’s been making normal starts typically in the range of 20 to 24 batters faced. He’s on track to make his Major League debut in 2023. His mechanics offer an uncomfortable look. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a front angle. He has a floor as a high-leverage reliever, but he’s likelier to be used as a mid-rotation pitcher.

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