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Paul Skenes Wins National League Rookie Of The Year, Earns Full Year Of Service Time

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Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes has been voted the National League Rookie of the Year for 2024, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Outfielder Jackson Merrill of the Padres finished second while outfielder Jackson Chourio of the Brewers finished third. The Pirates will not earn a PPI bonus pick from this result but Skenes will earn himself a full year of service time despite his late call-up.

Skenes, now 22, has made a quick rise to being one of the top pitchers in the sport. As of a year and a half ago, he was still pitching for Louisiana State University. The Pirates selected him with the first overall pick in the 2023 draft, with many viewing him as about as close to MLB-ready as a draft pick could be.

The Bucs let him get his feet wet as a professional, putting him into five minor league games late in 2023, but never letting him throw more than two innings in any of those. There was some speculation that he could crack the Opening Day roster in 2024 but the Pirates decided to build him up slowly. He was started in Triple-A but with his outings mostly kept around three or four innings.

Despite the kid gloves, Skenes proved it was time to break free, posting a 0.99 earned run average in those minor league outings. That got him promoted to the majors in May, less than a year after being drafted.

His relatively young age and lack of professional experience were easily overwhelmed by his incredible talent. Flashing a triple-digit fastball, a devastating “splinker” and several other pitches in his arsenal, Skenes went on to toss 133 innings over 23 big league starts. In that time, he had a 1.96 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate, 6.2% walk rate and 51.3% ground ball rate. He produced 4.3 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, placing him tenth among all pitchers in the majors this year, despite tossing fewer innings than everyone ahead of him.

The timing of his call-up and this victory are both noteworthy. The collective bargaining agreement between the league and the players features measures designed to encourage top prospects being promoted, the prospect promotion incentive, and also to disincentivize service time manipulation. If a player is on certain top 100 prospect lists and is promoted early enough in the season to earn a full service year, that player can earn his club a bonus draft pick depending on awards voting. On the flip side, if such a player is not promoted early enough to get a full year but managed to finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting regardless, that player earns himself a full year of service retroactively.

Had Skenes been promoted earlier in the year, this award would have netted the Bucs an extra draft pick. But since he was held down into May, they were not eligible to receive that pick. Skenes, on the other hand, will now have a full year of service time. That is significant for him as he is now slated to reach free agency after the 2029 season, his age-27 campaign. Under previous collective bargaining agreements, his free agency would have been one year further into the future.

Merrill was eligible to net the Padres a PPI bonus pick and likely would have done so in any other year. He just had the misfortune of competing against Skenes in the voting. Per the BBWAA, each of the 30 votes had Skenes and Merrill in the top two, 23 of them putting Skenes first and seven of them going for Merrill.

The fact that it was even close indicates how impressive Merrill was this year. A shortstop prospect with no Triple-A experience, Merrill moved to center field just this year to help the Padres fill a vacancy at that spot and hit the ground running. He got into 156 games for the Friars, hitting 24 home runs, stealing 16 bases, slashing .292/.326/.500 and getting strong grades for his glovework.

There was a case that Merrill deserved the award more than Skenes since his performance was over a full season, and clearly a handful of voters did lean that way, but ultimately not enough to get Merrill over the line. Despite the incredibly impressive performance, he comes up just shy of getting the trophy while the Padres come up just shy of getting a bonus draft pick.

The third place votes were split between just two players, as Chourio got 26 of them and Shota Imanaga of the Cubs got the other four. Chourio hit 21 home runs and stole 22 bases, slashing .275/.327/.464 while providing solid outfield defense. Imanaga tossed 173 1/3 innings over 29 starts for the Cubs with a 2.91 ERA. In many other years, those two players could have won the award, but they were instead relegated to nabbing a few third-place votes due to the stunning seasons of Skenes and Merrill. Players like Masyn Winn and Joey Ortiz also had excellent seasons but couldn’t even get any votes due to how strong the competition was in the National League this year.

Garrett Mitchell Begins Rehab Assignment

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Brewers outfielder Garrett Mitchell began a rehab assignment with the team’s Arizona Complex League affiliate tonight, tweets Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. It’s the 25-year-old’s first official game action of the 2024 season and opens a 20-day window for his return to the major league roster.

Mitchell broke his left hand late in Spring Training and has been shelved all season. It’s his second consecutive year with a notable early-season injury. The UCLA product missed the vast majority of the 2023 campaign after sustaining a left shoulder subluxation that required surgery. He was out between mid-April and the end of September, only returning for three games at the tail end of the season. Milwaukee left him off their playoff roster, presumably because of concern he’d be rusty after the extended layoff.

After a normal offseason, Mitchell entered camp as the likeliest option to take the center field job. Milwaukee moved Jackson Chourio to the corners and at least considered giving Sal Frelick run at third base. It might be tougher for Mitchell to crack the everyday lineup now.

Frelick has played all of four regular season innings at the hot corner, where Joey Ortiz has established himself as a productive player. Frelick is hitting at a league average level (.254/.333/.328) while playing all three outfield spots. Blake Perkins has earned the majority of the center field work by playing plus defense while turning in a solid .254/.327/.386 slash line over 211 plate appearances. Christian Yelich is having a fantastic season in left field.

Short of optioning Chourio, the Brewers could be hard-pressed to open everyday at-bats in the outfield. The 20-year-old has had a rocky first couple months in the big leagues, hitting .220/.263/.363 over 195 plate appearances. Owner Mark Attanasio nevertheless shot down the idea of demoting Chourio to the minors a couple weeks ago. “I don’t see where he’s going to learn anything at Triple-A,” the owner told reporters in late May (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy).

Mitchell is more than five years Chourio’s senior, but he’s perhaps even less established at the MLB level. Thanks to his background as a college draftee and the recent injuries, Mitchell only has 141 big league plate appearances under his belt. His .278/.343/.452 slash line is well above-average, but that’s driven by a .441 batting average on balls in play. While Mitchell’s speed and all-fields approach should translate to a high BABIP, a .441 mark is essentially impossible for any hitter to maintain. He’ll need to cut down on his 38.3% career strikeout rate to compensate for that forthcoming batted ball regression.

In less promising injury news, manager Pat Murphy told reporters this evening that starter Joe Ross had a setback in his recovery from a lower back strain (X link via Todd Rosiak of the Journal-Sentinel). Murphy didn’t provide specifics beyond noting that the right-hander won’t be ready to return next week as initially hoped. Ross has been out since May 21. He made nine starts before hitting the IL, turning in a 4.50 ERA over 42 innings.

Players Who Sign Extensions Prior To MLB Debut Are Not PPI Eligible

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A player who signs a contract extension prior to making his major league debut is not eligible for the prospect promotion incentive, reports JJ Cooper of Baseball America. He specifically mentions Jackson Chourio of the Brewers and Colt Keith of the Tigers, who both signed extensions with their respective clubs this offseason, as players who are not PPI eligible.

The latest collective bargaining agreement introduced the PPI to encourage clubs to carry top prospects on Opening Day rosters, rather than hold them down in the minors to gain an extra year of control, a move generally referred to as service time manipulation.

A major league season is 187 days long and a player needs 172 days in the big leagues to earn one year. By holding a player down in the minors for a few weeks, a club can prevent that player from getting to the one-year mark. Since a player needs a full six years of service to qualify for free agency, the club can gain an extra year of control over a young player by doing this. Some of the oft-cited examples of this practice are Kris Bryant of the Cubs and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, both of whom were top prospects who were called up a few weeks into their respective rookie seasons, thus coming up just short of one year of service.

In an attempt to curb this behavior, the CBA introduced the PPI system, whereby teams could earn an extra draft pick by promoting certain players early in the season. To qualify, a player had to be on at least two out of the three top 100 lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline, as well as being rookie eligible and have fewer than 60 days of service time. If such a player was called up early enough in the season to accrue 172 days of service the traditional way*, they would be PPI eligible and could net their club an extra pick just after the first round. To earn a pick, a PPI eligible player has to either win a Rookie of the Year award or finish in the top three of voting for Most Valuable Player or Cy Young prior to qualifying for arbitration.

(*There was another new measure in the CBA to disincentive service time manipulation, whereby a player could earn a full year of service even if called up too late. If they were otherwise PPI eligible and finished in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, they could be bumped up to a full year, but they would not earn their clubs an extra pick. This situation arose with Adley Rutschman of the Orioles in 2022, who finished second in American League Rookie of the Year voting despite missing the first few weeks of the season. He earned a full year of service but the O’s would not have received a bonus pick for that if he had finished first.)

This new detail provides an extra wrinkle, as Chourio and Keith would have been in play for PPI picks. Both of them are top prospects who signed offseason extensions and then cracked Opening Day rosters. However, this new development means they won’t be in play for those bonus picks after all.

On the flip side, Cooper adds that Michael Busch of the Cubs and Joey Ortiz of the Brewers are PPI eligible. When Matt Eddy of Baseball America outlined the PPI rules back in February, he noted that players who debut in the majors and are then traded do not have PPI status with their new club. Busch debuted with the Dodgers last year and was traded to the Cubs this winter while Ortiz debuted with the Orioles before being flipped to the Brewers. Eddy provided a further update today, stating that they are PPI eligible since they were not moved via midseason trades.

Garrett Mitchell To Begin Season On IL Due To Hand Fracture

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Brewers manager Pat Murphy revealed to reporters that outfielder Garrett Mitchell has a fracture in his left hand and will begin the season on the injured list. Video of Murphy’s comments was relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on X. Mitchell will be seeking more information from a specialist to establish a timeline. Hogg had relayed earlier that Mitchell was getting an X-ray due to some swelling after getting jammed on a swing.

It’s a tough blow for the Brewers and a poorly-timed one as well, with Opening Day on Thursday. Mitchell was on a path to open the season as the club’s everyday center fielder, with Hogg having recently relayed that Jackson Chourio was anticipated spending more time in right field. Christian Yelich projects as the club’s everyday left fielder.

As for how the Brewers proceed, Murphy laid out several possibilities in the video linked above. He mentioned that the club could make Sal Frelick a full-time outfielder, give a spot to Eric Haase or bring in a player from outside the organization.

Frelick has spent his entire professional career as an outfielder but has been attempting a move to the infield this spring, primarily third base. If he were to move back to the outfield, that would open up more playing time at the hot corner for guys like Joey Ortiz and Andruw Monasterio.

As for Haase, he has seemed blocked for playing time but is having a monster spring. He signed with the club in December to be the backup catcher behind William Contreras, but the Brewers later added Gary Sánchez. That seemed to push Haase, who is out of options, to third on the catching depth chart. But he has been tearing the cover off the ball in camp with a current line of .378/.452/.784.

Haase has a bit of corner outfield experience, 356 2/3 innings over the past three years. Perhaps that could allow the Brewers to carry him on the roster as a third catcher/corner outfielder/designated hitter. Joey Wiemer, Blake Perkins and Chris Roller are also outfielders on the roster who could merit consideration.

There are many moving parts and it’s possible that further roster moves might impact the decision making. As clubs around the league are finalizing their rosters before starting their seasons, some players are being released, opting out or being designated for assignment. Perhaps that will give the Brewers an opportunity to add someone not currently on the roster into the mix.

Mitchell debuted in 2022 with an exciting line of .311/.373/.459 in his first 68 plate appearances but most of his 2023 was wiped out by shoulder surgery, limiting him to just 73 more plate appearances in that season. He’s hit a combined .278/.343/.452 but with a concerning strikeout rate of 38.3%. He’s now facing another injury absence, though the length of it won’t be determined until he finds out more information about his hand.

Jackson Chourio To Make Brewers’ Opening Day Roster

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The Brewers will carry top outfield prospect Jackson Chourio on their Opening Day roster, reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. He is already on the 40-man roster after signing an eight-year extension over the offseason.

Chourio, who was born in March 2004, will very likely be the youngest player in the majors. It’s nevertheless not all that surprising that he’s breaking camp after signing an $82MM extension in December. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, that’s by far the largest guarantee for a player who had yet to make his MLB debut. Chourio only has six games of Triple-A experience but turned in above-average numbers in the Double-A Southern League a season ago.

The right-handed hitter put together a .280/.336/.467 slash with 22 home runs and 43 steals over 559 plate appearances. That came against much older competition in a league where testing of the pre-tacked baseball led to increased break on pitches and proved a challenge for hitters. Chourio fared better in the second half after the league reverted to the traditional baseball, including a scorching .388/.447/.718 showing in July.

That firmly established him among the sport’s top handful of minor league talents. Chourio ranked second or third on Top 100 lists from Baseball America, FanGraphs, ESPN, The Athletic and MLB Pipeline this offseason. He’s a potential franchise center fielder with a rare combination of power and athleticism.

To the extent there’s risk with Chourio, it’s that he has shown an aggressive plate approach. He walked at a modest 7.3% clip in Double-A, although that’s hardly an overwhelming concern given his youth. Chourio kept his strikeouts to a solid 18.4% rate and showcased his physical gifts.

In 13 games this spring, he’s hitting .283/.313/.348. He has three doubles, no homers, and a 10:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. They’re not overwhelming numbers, but it has been an impressive enough performance to reaffirm to the front office that he’s ready for an aggressive major league assignment. There’d be little reason to call him up if the club weren’t confident he can hold down the everyday center field job.

The Venezuela native will be at the center of a talented outfield at American Family Field. Christian Yelich should see the bulk of his time in left field with sporadic work at designated hitter. Former first-round pick Garrett Mitchell could slide to right field, where Milwaukee could also turn to Joey Wiemer or Sal Frelick. Their stockpile of outfield talent was enough that the Brewers have considered moving Frelick to third base, although the acquisition of Joey Ortiz in the Corbin Burnes trade gives them the flexibility to keep the Boston College product on the outfield grass if they like.

With a pair of club options tacked onto the end of his eight-year guarantee, Milwaukee already controls Chourio well beyond his six-year service window. The Brewers could still benefit from the Prospect Promotion Incentive if he performs well enough to merit award consideration.

Assuming Milwaukee keeps him in the majors for a full service year, Chourio would earn the Brewers an extra draft pick at the end of the first round if he wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the top three in MVP balloting within his first three seasons. That’s certainly not an easy task. He faces an uphill battle in a Rookie of the Year race where Yoshinobu Yamamoto stands as the favorite and a top-three MVP finish is a tough ask of even the sport’s elite players.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers Sign Jackson Chourio To Eight-Year Extension

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The Brewers have officially announced that they have signed outfield prospect Jackson Chourio to an eight-year extension that runs through 2031 plus two club options for 2032 and 2033. Previous reporting has indicated the guarantee is $82MM, with the options each valued at $25MM. There are also some unknown incentives, which could allow him to max out at $142.5MM if he hits them all and both options are picked up. The options come with $2MM buyouts.

The deal is the largest ever offered to a player prior to their major league debut, surpassing the six-year, $50MM guarantee the White Sox gave to Luis Robert Jr. prior to the 2020 season. While Chourio, 19, has played just six games above the Double-A level to this point in his young career, it’s easy to see why this level of confidence in the youngster. Chourio is a consensus top-three prospect in the sport, with only Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday ranked above him consistently by prospect outlets. The deal will keep Chourio under contract through at least 2030 while extending his potential window of team control through 2032, his age-29 season.

Chourio signed with Milwaukee out of Venezuela for a $1.8MM bonus back in 2021 and immediately made an impression during his professional debut with a .286/.386/.447 slash line in 45 Dominican Summer League games at just 17 years old. His stateside debut the following season went even better as the youngster slashed a phenomenal .288/.342/.538 in 439 trips to the plate split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels. That performance already made Chourio a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport prior to the 2023 season, and he did little to disprove his status among the game’s elite prospect talents, slashing .280/.336/.467 in 559 plate appearances in his return to Double-A before his aforementioned cup of coffee in Triple-A. While he received just 24 plate appearances at the minors’ highest level, Chourio did not look overmatched with a slash line of .333/.375/.476.

With Chourio entering the 2024 season under guaranteed contract, there will be little incentive for the Brewers to send him back to Triple-A to start the regular season so long as he doesn’t look overmatched during big league camp this spring. The deal takes away the possibility of the club securing an extra year of team control, while the club could stand to gain a draft pick from the prospect promotion incentive if Chourio secures a full year of service time as a rookie eligible player and wins the Rookie of the Year award in 2024 or places in the top three of MVP voting before he would’ve been eligible for arbitration.

That said, Chourio starting the season with the big league club isn’t necessarily guaranteed. After all, the youngster has minimal experience at the Triple-A level and the Brewers already have a relatively crowded outfield mix even before considering their top prospect. Christian Yelich figures to get everyday at-bats in either left field or as the club’s DH, leaving just two spots for Chourio, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, Tyrone Taylor, and Blake Perkins. On the other hand, only Mitchell posted an above-average offensive season by wRC+ in 2023 among that group, leaving plenty of room for Chourio to establish himself as one of the club’s best options. It’s also worth noting that the Brewers could attempt to leverage that crop of young outfield options on the trade market this offseason, improving the club in other areas while clearing up the logjam on the outfield grass.

Securing Chourio’s services for the next eight-to-ten seasons gives the Brewers some additional security regarding their potential budding superstar. Milwaukee has faced several difficult decisions regarding star players on the verge of free agency this offseason, from non-tendering ace right-hander Brandon Woodruff to considering trades for Willy Adames and Corbin Burnes. If retained into next season, both Adames and Burnes are likely to depart in free agency next winter. By extending Chourio now, the Brewers take on the risk that their teenage phenom doesn’t reach his potential at the big league level in exchange for avoiding a similar situation to the one they’re currently facing down the road.

It’s not currently clear if this deal will impact the club’s thinking with regards to Burnes and Adames, but it shouldn’t have much of an impact from a financial perspective. While Chourio’s contract has an AAV of $10.25MM for luxury tax purposes, the club is more than $100MM below the first luxury tax threshold, per RosterResource. What’s more, early-career extensions tend to have salaries that ramp up over the course of the extension. In the likely event that Chourio’s deal has a similar structure, the youngster’s salary figures to be relatively low in 2024 despite the healthy guarantee.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were closing in on an agreement. Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel first reported the deal would be in the $80MM range over eight years. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the specifics of the $82MM guarantee and club options with $2MM buyouts. Rosenthal reported the option values and Heyman had the potential max payout of the deal.

The Opener: Winter Meetings, Chourio, Miley

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With the Winter Meetings underway in Nashville, Tennessee, here are three things to keep an eye on around baseball today:

1. The Winter Meetings get rolling

Outside of one major trade on Sunday night – the Braves acquired Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners – the lead-in to MLB’s Winter Meetings was relatively quiet. That was to be expected, however. The first day is often the slowest, as executives and agents are just arriving and getting ready for the busy week ahead.

Now, with the calendar flipped to Monday, perhaps the hot stove will really start to sizzle. Forty-three of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents are still unsigned, and none of Anthony Franco’s Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates have yet been dealt. It’s hard to believe that will remain the case for long.

2. Brewers to officially announce Jackson Chourio’s contract extension

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Brewers will host a press conference today during the Winter Meetings to officially announce Jackson Chourio’s record-smashing contract extension.

The 19-year-old top prospect will make a minimum of $82MM over the next eight years and can earn as much as $142.5MM over ten if the Brewers exercise both of their team options and Chourio maxes out all his incentives. It is far and away the largest contract ever signed by a player before making his MLB debut.

Presumably, the Brewers plan to put Chourio on the 2024 Opening Day roster, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him starting in center the next time they take the field. The big question now is if the Brewers will keep spending to put together a more competitive team around their young phenom.

3. Will Wade Miley be the next free agent to sign?

In more Brewers news, the team is reportedly close to re-signing veteran starter Wade Miley. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to surmise that a deal was on the horizon, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported on Sunday evening that the two sides were “moving closer” to an agreement.

No figures have yet been reported, but it’s worth mentioning that Miley rejected his side of a $10MM mutual option with Milwaukee earlier this offseason, instead collecting a $1MM buyout. Presumably, the new contract they are discussing will guarantee him a bigger payday than the one he turned down.

NL Central Notes: Chourio, Pirates, De La Cruz, Cubs, Glasnow

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Jackson Chourio’s impending extension with the Brewers is expected to be made official within the next few days, and the eight-year, $82MM pact will give the 19-year-old Chourio the largest contract ever given to a (non-NPB) player prior to his big league debut.  “It’s happened very quick — way quicker than I thought,” Chourio told reporter Andrew Wagner (X link) while the outfielder and agent Cesar Suarez attended a Milwaukee Bucks game yesterday, though Chourio and Suarez both stopped short of confirming an agreement was in place.

“Obviously I’m very happy that the organization believes in me and thinks so highly of me,” Chourio said.  “At the same time, there’s been a lot of hard work and now I’m getting rewarded so I want to continue to [work hard] and continue to succeed with the team.”

Regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects, Chourio has looked great during his three pro seasons, though his Triple-A experience consists of only six games.  The contract makes it likely but not a guarantee that Chourio will be the Brewers’ starting center fielder on Opening Day, yet even if he does need a bit more seasoning in the minors before making his big league debut, there’s no doubt Chourio is a huge part of Milwaukee’s future.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Pirates’ signing of Ali Sanchez this week added a fourth catcher to the Bucs’ 40-man roster, as Sanchez joins Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, and Jason Delay.  This seeming surplus makes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wonder if the Pirates are adding depth in advance of a trade, perhaps even a headline-grabbing move that would see Rodriguez dealt for a controllable young pitcher.  Of course, Sanchez’s addition could also mean that the Pirates have again changed their mind about Davis being an option behind the plate, as the former first overall pick played right field almost exclusively during his 2023 rookie season.
  • The Reds have so many promising young infielders both in the minors and already on the MLB roster that it remains to be seen how exactly Cincinnati will line up these players around the diamond.  Elly De La Cruz has no problem with a potential position change, telling the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith that “wherever the team needs me, that’s where I’m going to play….For me, it doesn’t matter where I play.  I just want to play. I’m going to have fun wherever I am.  I just want to play as much as possible.”  De La Cruz played shortstop and third base during his rookie season, with public defensive metrics favoring his work at the hot corner.  Though Edwin Arroyo might end up being the longer-term defensive answer at shortstop, the Reds seem likely to use De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte at third base and shortstop in some fashion in 2024, though Matt McLain could very well figure into the shortstop plans as well if he isn’t at second base (or if Jonathan India isn’t traded).
  • Tyler Glasnow and the Cubs were linked in trade rumors earlier this week, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes that “nothing has changed too much over the past week” and “nothing seemed close to done, certainly not with the Cubs” on the Glasnow front as of yesterday.  In terms of what the Rays might want, Sharma believes Tampa Bay is looking for a controllable young pitcher as the headliner in a Glasnow trade package.  This might not necessarily be a fit for a Chicago team that is trying to build its young pitching depth, though Glasnow has been on the Cubs’ radar as a trade candidate for a few years.

Brewers Making Progress On Extension Talks With Top Prospect Jackson Chourio

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Nov. 29: The two parties are gaining momentum on what would indeed be a record-setting contract extension, reports Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Hogg suggests a framework in the eight-year, $80MM range could be in play, with multiple options and a presumably healthy slate of incentives also coming into play. The two sides have been discussing a potential deal since late in the minor league season, Hogg adds, indicating that the ostensibly looming agreement would mark the culmination of months of negotiation.

Nov. 28: The Brewers and outfield prospect Jackson Chourio are discussing an extension, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Though the deal is not done, the report states it would set a new benchmark for an extension signed by a player with no major league experience. It’s unclear if the deal is close to being done or if talks are still in early stages. Chourio is represented by Beverly Hills Sports Council.

Chourio is still quite young, as he doesn’t turn 20 years old until March, but he has vaulted himself to the top echelons of prospect lists thanks to his all-around contributions. He spent most of 2023 in Double-A, getting into 122 games at that level. He hit 22 home runs in that time and stole 43 bases. His .280/.336/.467 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 112, at a level where the average age was almost 24. He’s also considered an above-average defender in center field. He received a late promotion to Triple-A and got into six games there.

It’s also possible that his batting line from this year masks his true talent. His scouting report at Baseball America notes that the Double-A Southern League experimented with a pre-tacked ball which led to increased pitch movement and disadvantaged hitters, but they switched to a traditional ball in July. Chourio hit .239/.304/.410 prior to the switch but .323/.380/.544 against the traditional ball.

Chourio is currently considered the #2 prospect in the league, behind Jackson Holliday, by BA, MLB Pipeline and the most recent list from Keith Law of The Athletic. He’s currently listed #3 at FanGraphs and the most recent list from ESPN.

It appears that the Brewers have plenty of faith in Chourio’s ability, despite the fact that he has just six games of experience above Double-A and is still a teenager for a few more months. The exact details of the contract being discussed aren’t known, but Rosenthal indicates it will top the previous benchmark for players who have yet to reach the majors.

As noted by Rosenthal, five different players have received extensions prior to their MLB debuts. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that, of those five deals, the two most lucrative were both given out by the White Sox. In March of 2019, they gave Eloy Jiménez a six-year, $43MM deal, then topped that the following January by giving Luis Robert Jr. $50MM over the same six-year term. The other three players are Jon Singleton, Scott Kingery and Evan White, who each received far more modest deals.

There’s certainly risk in giving out a significant deal to a player who hasn’t proven himself at the big league level, but the Brewers know that there’s also risk in waiting. Not too long ago, they parted with Josh Hader as he continued to thrive and earn higher salaries via arbitration. There are rumors that they may have to consider a similar path with Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames, who are each about to make eight-figure salaries before reaching free agency after 2024.

If the Brewers are able to get something done with Chourio, it should decrease their chances of finding themselves in a similar position in the future. If the deal goes beyond six years, as Rosenthal reports it will, it would also increase his chances of cracking the Opening Day roster in 2024. The club would then have no incentive to keep him down in the minors to start the year and try to gain an extra year of control.

If the club considers Chourio a viable option to start next year in the big leagues, it could perhaps give them an outfield surplus to trade from. They already have Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer and Tyrone Taylor in the mix for playing time, with Blake Perkins and Chris Roller on the roster as depth options. Making someone in that group available on the trading block could perhaps allow the club to upgrade its infield or pitching staff during an offseason where there are few impact bats available and the demand for pitching is incredibly high.

Most extensions generally ramp up in terms of salary over time, vaguely resembling what a player might have received in the normal course of going through arbitration. The player gets some certainty over future earnings and protection against a significant injury while the club gains some extra control over the player’s future. Other than Yelich, the Brewers have very little on their long-term books. Aaron Ashby is signed through 2027 with two club options, while Freddy Peralta’s deal goes through 2024 with two club options.

Though there have been plenty of rumors about Burnes and Adames being dealt, it’s generally been expected that those theoretical deals would bring back MLB-ready talent to allow the club to continue competing despite their budgetary limitations. They clearly think Chourio can be a big part of their ability to keep the good times rolling and hope to keep him around for a while. For Chourio, he could potentially sign a 10-year deal and still reach free agency before his 30th birthday. Whether the two sides can find something that works for everyone remains to be seen.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays’ Stadium Agreement

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

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