Cody Bellinger has declined his end of a mutual option with the Cubs, the team informed reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). He receives a $5MM buyout and officially becomes a free agent. Chicago also announced they’ve declined their end of a $5MM mutual option on reliever Brad Boxberger. He collects an $800K buyout.
Both moves were straightforward. Bellinger signed a one-year guarantee last offseason after being non-tendered by the Dodgers. His goal was to turn in a rebound campaign that allowed him to get back to the open market this winter. Bellinger followed through with a resurgent year, blasting 26 homers with a .307/.356/.525 showing. Aside from a month-long absence due to a left knee contusion, it would’ve been hard to draw up a much better season.
That makes taking the option buyout a formality. Bellinger is the clear #2 position player on the free agent market. Going into his age-28 campaign, he could find a deal approaching or exceeding a decade in length. The Cubs will make him a $20.325MM qualifying offer before Monday’s deadline. Bellinger will decline, thereby entitling Chicago to draft compensation if he signs with another team.
The Cubs have top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong as a potential successor in center field. They nevertheless figure to make an effort at retaining the 2019 NL MVP, although teams like the Giants, Yankees and Mariners could join them in the bidding.
Chicago signed Boxberger to a $2.8MM free agent deal last offseason. The veteran righty was limited to 22 contests by a pair of injuries, including a forearm strain that ended his season in September. Over 20 innings, he pitched to a 4.95 ERA with a modest 20.2% strikeout rate and an elevated 13.1% walk percentage. The 35-year-old might be limited to minor league offers this winter.
No surprise there. The contract will be big, but how big considering he had two disastrous years not that long ago. Regression?
Regression to the moon, Alice!
If he gets more than a two year deal, depending on who it is, their franchise the next few years could depend on it.
I think a 2 year/$47M deal w/ a 2 year/$53M option followed by a 2 year/$50M option seems most prudent, meaning someone will gamble on guaranteeing him like 5 years/$125M to 6 years/$200M and it’ll almost immediately look like a disappointing to horrendous deal.
And a wise move on his part. He will be highly coveted, probably the #2 bat on the board. The thing with him is that he also has a history of plus defense at multiple positions. When you consider that needy teams could go after him for first base as well, he’s a good fit on just about every club in baseball, on paper.
Yep, this was expected. Very unlikely he comes back to the Cubs. But thanks for the great season Cody! Go get that bag!
PCA has contact issues. 129K’s in 438 AA-AAA at bats and then a woeful debut o/14 with 7 K’s. The glove is nice, but if you can’t hit the ball….well, most highly touted prospects fail to make a major league impact.
Give the kid a chance ok?
Canario had a higher SO (64 ks in 205 ABs) rate in the minors. While they both had 17 ABs in their respective cups of coffee, PCA’s were more spread out and he did pull 3 BB. Not enough of a look to just give up on him.
PCA? More like PCH. Amirite?
I’d love to see him in Detroit, although it’ll never happen…..
Greenberg knows the Cubs prospects. How about PAC for Baez. Get out of here haha
He would be a good fit with those kids. Not ideal ballpark though
Over/Under 200 Mil ?
Way under
The market the last two years has been friendly, players getting way more than they are worth. Bellinger definitely pushing 200 plus he going to get it too. Boras as his agent and a rookie year and mvp on his cv he’ll get close to 200-250 IMO.
If Kris Bryant got the contract he got then Bellinger will get the same if not more
Under. I can see an 8/$160M deal with some incentives. Not sure if he’ll get more than $20M per year on a long term contract. He might be offered more on a short team deal: 4/$100M-ish but he’s not a $30M+ per year player.
@Mantooth I agree on the $30 million per year being a benchmark for him. Although his 2023 was likely worth more than that, I think he’s comfortably somewhere in the lower 20’s for annual.
Not much impact hitting in this market. His deal might surprise on the high end.
8 years @ $25MM/yr is $200MM
So yeah, I’d guess over
9 years $27MM/yr for $243MM is my guess
Definitely over 200. Scott Boras is going to get him his bag.
9 years??? What???
Stupid question and under.
Nimmo got 8/$162 last year. Granted, it was from the spend happy Mets. Still, I expect that Bellinger will do better than that.
Bellinger will certainly get at least a 5 year deal, I’m not going to guess about the dollars. It should make the Cubs hesitate. But if the idiots are dumb enough to even think about giving up assets AND pay Soto 33 million bucks even if it is for only 1 year, Then you pretty much have to consider Bellinger for 5 years. As long as Hoyer isn’t dumb enough to hand out another NTC then I would be OK with bringing back Bellinger. Even if you give him a 10 team trade list at least you have the ability to be flexible if your other assets pan out. Bellinger is a key defender and Soto brings none of that. Plus the Cubs are goiung to have some big decisions on rule 5 guys like Arias and a couple of others but Arias stands out. There is still some deadwood to get rid of IMO, Madrigal, Wisdom, Maybe Brennan Davis, some tough decisions to be made. Is Hoyer the right guy to make them? Not sure anymore.
I know the cub fans in the Chicago media are talking like Soto is a done deal. These are the same idiots that are sure Ohtani will be wearing cub pajamas next year. Sorry, cub media. You won’t be talking or writing about either player next year, unless their future teams play your cubbies.
This guy is getting ready to sign with the Yankees. Good for him.
Yankees are the perfect fit for Cody. He’ll love that short RF porch. The Yanks will overpay like they did for Rondon, and, sad to say, the results will be similar.
Going forward, and defensive versatility aside, I see Cody as a .260 25 HR guy. In today’s game where even back up catchers (My favorite guy on a team!), hit 8-10 HR, I’m not paying $25 million a year for a guy who only hits 10 to 15 more HR than my favorite player on a team.
If he ends up with the Yankees I’m reaching multiple rounds for him in fantasy. You guys are right, it’s the perfect fit
I think that’s the perfect over/under number. I’ll put him at 8 years $200 million or 6 years $150. I think $25 is a decent guess at his annual. He had to have been worth more than that in 2023 and is still a young guy; but also had a couple very troubling seasons.
Those two down years may scare a lot of teams away from a long term deal. I’d be much more worried about his back issues than his dislocated shoulder that contributed to his two sub-par seasons. If his medicals come back clean, then I agree he could get an 8 year deal but I don’t see him making the full $200M. Those two down years were awful; who’s to say that can’t happen again.
I agree 100% Mantooth.
Question; if you’re the Yankees, in that ballpark are you giving him 8/200?
The thing is, since he’s probably the 2nd most coveted bat out there, I could also see Boras working some magic and getting a slight overpay, if everything goes according to plan.
I think the scenario you provided, in which teams balk at the larger commitment is probably more likely; but we shall see.
Wouldn’t go near him!
What is the comp draft picks for Belli if he signs a high paying contract?
I would also love to know this. On the heels of a (albeit extremely successful) one year stint with the team. He was simply granted free agency at the completion of his 6 years of control, they just let him walk, which is unique.
MLB needs to take away the penalties to the teams that sign a QO player. It’s ridiculous that a team would need to forfeit a draft pick to sign what is basically a free agent. It should be like the NFL where the team who loses the player gets a compensatory draft pick for losing him, but the team who signs him shouldn’t be penalized for doing so.
Will be the same as Contreras if it’s over 50 million.Between the 2nd and 3rd round comp pick.
Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Nationals, Astros, White Sox, Red Sox
For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM). Cody Bellinger is a lock to receive and reject the Cubs’ qualifying offer, as the outfielder/first baseman will be looking to cash in after his big bounce-back season in 2023. Aside from Bellinger, none of the other pending free agents for these teams look like plausible QO candidates.
mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/which-draft-picks-each-…
Thank you for a fun season, Belli! Good luck with your new team.
Hope he gets what he wants but clubs should be weary of his down years. Yeah it was great last year but he also had some ugly ones. Expecting a 10 yr deal is crazy. Or at least a 10 yr top $ one.
Kris Bryant got 7 years and he’s injury-prone and isn’t as good
No brainer that he produces in a contract year, but what was he before? Buyer beware just another ballplayer who gets a big contract but will regress until its a contract year. Just look at his Dodger years!
Which Dodger years? The ones before he got injured?
Pete crow cant hit
Poor man’s Jay Hey- lock him up long term for 126 mill
Hello Padres
He’ll be a Cub. He was and is well liked by the FO. He’s proven himself as a sound big dollar investment. The Ricketts have plenty of cash…
scott borasshole is going to expect trillions
Any team that gives him 10 years or anything close to it is nuts. He was terrible just recently. Not to mention he can’t seem to lay off the grass.
I wouldn’t go near him with a ten foot pole if I’m the Yankees.
Started off looking like he’d be the best player in baseball……then tanked so hard for 3 years he couldn’t hit with a snow shovel. Magically regains his form in a contract year? No thank you.
No disagreement there but how is Aaron Judge any different? They have him 9 years and he’s almost 32, injury-prone, strikes out 60% of the time, and isn’t clutch
Strikes out 60% of the time???? You pass math in grade school? LOL!! And how do you compare Judge to Bellinger. C’mon dude.
Judge is abysmal in post season moments. He did absolutely nothing to help them advance in the 2022 playoffs. Idk maybe 60% was an exaggeration but he’s known to be a strikeout machine. I remember I think vs the Astros in the ALDS one year of recent seasons, he went 1 – 18 with like 14 strikeouts. How’s that even possible.
He has his moments and when he does, he’s one of the best players in baseball but he’s not consistent like Altuve and Betts. As a Yankee fan, I generally do not like the Astros but you have to give credit to their team and how good they are. The fact that they awarded Judge with that mega contract and Captain of the Yankees is foolish. He’ll never be 50% of what Jeter was to NY
Ahhh, you’re speaking of post-season. You have a point there as he’s a career .211 hitter in the playoffs. Hasn’t had his signature moment there yet for sure. Unfortunately, Cashman put the team in a position where we didn’t have a choice BUT to pay him silly money. This team (with the bats) is built like an NBA team…..a superstar, aging role players and then a pile of quad A players. Without him we were league worst.
Amazing what happens when you stop doing drugs all the time.
Belli- 5 yrs/$155 million. If the new QO is $20 million, easy for him to have teams throw $30 million /year at him.
Doesn’t want to toil with the sad sack cubbies who can blame him. Return to the west maybe- Giants or DBacks if he wants to troll the Dodgers? Red Socks or Yankees? An Ohtani consolation prize?
Marlins, now that Ng is gone, and we’ll have someone new at some point, please get the talks with Bellinger done right this time.
The end of the world series has become the new MLB version of ground hogs day. All the trolls come out of hibernation hungry for attention. I know you are tired but tighten up those sick burns.
I like that username
Bellinger’s strongest asset right now is that he’s just twenty-eight. At that age, GMs can dream about him giving them 6 or 7 decent years before Father Time comes calling.
Big mistake if they do IMHO. Don’t envision Cody being any more than slightly above average for the rest of his career. Yes, that type of player has value but not so much that a team should pay him $25+ million per year for 8-10 years.
going to be interesting to watch. after watching his worst years in LA i’m pretty skeptical he figured it all out but good for him if a team pays him big time.i think he’ll remain elite defense and slightly above average offense. is that worth 10/200? guess we’re about to find out.
The contract Bellinger should get is 7/190, with an opt out after 2 but the team can negate that opt out by adding 3 years 75 million.
You’d have to be an idiot to give him more than 2 years. His prior two years were horrendous
Was really hoping he would have re-upped with the Cubbies.
Normally I’d say after two bad years and one stellar he’d be worth a high paying 2-3 year deal but with bats in short supply someones gonna gamble 2023 will continue and push that to 5+. I’d hate to do it personally but unless youre going the trade route there’s just not a ton of offensive help if you need a big bat and wanna compete in 24.