The Nationals are among the teams that have shown interest in Jeimer Candelario this offseason, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Rogers also tied the free agent corner infielder to the Blue Jays, while a prior report suggested the Angels, D-Backs and Reds had checked in.
Of those teams, only Washington has employed Candelario before. The rebuilding Nats took a $5MM flier on the switch-hitter last offseason. Candelario had been non-tendered by the Tigers on the heels of a dismal 2022 season. He bounced back in D.C., hitting .258/.342/.481 over 99 games. Washington was able to flip him to the Cubs for prospects DJ Herz and Kevin Made, executing the kind of buy-low/midseason trade sequence that noncompetitive teams attempt each offseason.
Candelario didn’t quite maintain that form in Chicago. He hit .234/.318/.445 in 41 games as a Cub, finishing the season with a .251/.336/.471 batting line in 576 plate appearances. He connected on 22 home runs and 39 doubles with league average strikeout and walk rates. It was Candelario’s third above-average season in four years.
As a result, the 29-year-old (30 next Friday) is in a much better position for this free agent trip. He should secure at least a three-year pact and has a good case for four years. MLBTR predicts he’ll land a $70MM guarantee over four seasons, ranking him as the #5 position player in the free agent class.
Bringing Candelario back would obviously be a much more significant commitment for the Nats than it was 12 months ago. Washington has clear opportunity at third base yet again. After the Candelario deal, they turned to journeyman Ildemaro Vargas and former top prospect Carter Kieboom at the position. Washington third basemen hit .189/.247/.311 in 224 plate appearances from July 31 onward.
That’s an untenable situation even with the team still amidst a rebuild. Some kind of third base acquisition feels inevitable. While they could be another rebound candidate (e.g. Brian Anderson or non-tender possibility Nick Senzel), Candelario would be a clearer upgrade. General manager Mike Rizzo said last week the team was looking to add a middle-of-the-order lineup presence.
It doesn’t appear the Cubs have as strong an interest in a reunion. Rogers reports that Chicago looks unlikely to retain Candelario. They have third base questions of their own, with Nick Madrigal, Patrick Wisdom and Miles Mastrobuoni among the in-house options. None of that group projects as an everyday player for a contender, but the Cubs could look to alternatives in free agency or trade. Matt Chapman is the top free agent at the position; J.D. Davis, Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suárez are among speculative trade possibilities.
Predicted at 4/70?!?! Is that a joke!?!?
8 years years in pro ball and his talent was just discovered?..Time to pay apparently lol
He did 3.3 fWAR last year. That’s about the right neighborhood. Actually a bit of a bargain at about $5m per WAR. I guess his age brings it down a bit.
“Actually a bit of a bargain at about $5m per WAR.”
If and only if he repeats his performance. Maybe his 2022 was an anomaly. Maybe it wasn’t. Seems like a lot of years and money for such a gamble, but then again it’s not my money. Compare him to the deal Jeff McNeil got (4/$50 million). Though it bought out some arbitration, there’s a comparison due to Jeff having an off year in 2021, then a great year in 2022, then signing it.
He’s been really good 3/4 seasons… market for bats sucks..
Seamaholic & Wadz, yeah you both make sense. This is what it is these days haha.
No way he gets 4/70
That’s nuts. 4 years/$70M is massive for this guy. I mean it has happened before.
It’s just crazy that not all that long ago a guy like Johnny Damon was a highly coveted free agent and someone ponying up $13M AAV for him seemed like a really really big deal and now journeymen like Candelario might get $17.5M AAV over the same chunk of time and guys like Heaney are borderline quadruple-A making close to $20M a season.
Makes me wonder what Damon would have been offered in today’s market. Sox would’ve gone 5 years/$125M and Yankees would’ve topped them with 7 years/$210M?
With inflation, $13m in 2005 is equal to $20.05 million in 2023. The $52 million contract would be equal to $80 million today.
Well, there’s inflation and then there’s inflation- the true dollar and the value placed on players as free agents. The latter has eclipsed the former by a bit.
17 or 18 years ago Candelario might be looking at 4 years/$17M to Damon’s 4 years/$52M, but also deals seem to go longer than ever. 8, 9, 10, 12, 15 year deals are becoming increasingly common when back then it was A-Rod and Jeter and that was about it.
So Damon’s 4 years would probably be 5-9 years today and so on.
Are you asking me that or AmaralFan1?
I am very aware of how inflation works, the fluctuating value of a dollar year over year, as well as the year over year economics of baseball.
I am saying the value placed on players has increased more than actual inflation. So $1 in salary 17 years ago might be worth $1.53 or so today, but $10 million in baseball salary value 17 years ago is more like $25M today.
So in real dollars Damon’s $13M Yankees salary would be around $20M today, but his valuation in baseball terms would be closer to between $25M and $33M today and he’d probably sign for $29M AAV.
I agree with you I with expect Damon nowadays would’ve signed a contract around 30M
He would be signed mostly as a first baseman. They’re not going to let him block House, Lipscomb or Morales. Though he could start the season at third.
They should try and get Nola, Votto, Heyward, Merrifield and Chafin.
If the Cubs go into next season planning to utilize Madrigal, Wisdom or Mastrobuoni as their primary third baseman there off season will be a failure.
Dude had a career year at the right time, but I would not expect more than 4 years at a max total of 50 million, more like 40 million total.
Yeah I figured 3 years/$36M-$40M, personally.
2021 was his best year actually
Candy man, one of the bright spots in ‘23.
Wish him well but I hope this isn’t the veteran free agent signing the Nats had in mind for their coming out party.
Jayson Werth was a World Series hero when Washington signed him out of nowhere to announce their intentions.
Candelario faded out with the rest of the Cubs this year and in trade was worth two prospects on the cusp of Rule 5 eligibility.
That guy is a 7-8 million dollar yr player on a perfect day
I see this guy as a 2 year 24m. Don’t think there is any chance he gets close to 70m.
Until the kids arrive and/if the record approaches .500, Washington should not sign any free agents beyond one year rentals. They aren’t there yet.