Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins has admitted the club is looking to add multiple bats this winter and it seems they are setting their sights high in that pursuit. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported earlier this week that the club was looking to make a big splash and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic today reports that at least one person in the industry considers them a sleeper for Shohei Ohtani. Additionally, Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports they are interested in outfielder Cody Bellinger and infielder Jeimer Candelario. Bob Nightengale of USA Today also connected the Jays to Bellinger earlier this week.
That the Jays are looking to add some thump to their lineup is not surprising. The club’s offense fared decently in 2023, with an overall wRC+ of 107 that put them in the back of the top 10 out of the 30 clubs in the league. Their 20.9% strikeout rate was better than average, with only five clubs getting punched out at a lower clip, but the 188 home runs hit by the Jays was 16th. Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier all became free agents at season’s end, subtracting four regulars from the group.
The club has already been publicly connected to a few names, including having interest in a Chapman reunion as well has exploring trades for players like Eugenio Suárez of the Mariners and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals. But the club appears to also be exploring the possibility of signing a top free agent.
Ohtani is, of course, the biggest splash imaginable. He’s hit 124 home runs over the past three years while walking in 13.6% of his plate appearances, leading to a slash of .277/.379/.585. That translates into a wRC+ of 157, indicating he was 57% better than the league average hitter in that time. He won’t be pitching in 2024 as he recovers from elbow surgery but a return to the mound in 2025 is something he will surely be attempting. The Jays will have a rotation spot opening up at that time with Yusei Kikuchi set to return to free agency after 2024.
Though Ohtani will be exclusively a designated hitter next year, that won’t be a problem for the Jays, with Atkins already declaring the club is open to such an addition. Belt played some first base in 2023 but was mostly a DH, so Ohtani or someone else could take on a similar role to the one Belt had.
As for Bellinger, the Jays were interested in him last year before he signed a one-year deal with the Cubs. The outfielder was miserable at the plate in 2021 and 2022, seemingly due to injury, but bounced back in 2023. He hit 26 home runs and only struck out at a 25.6% clip. His overall batting line was .307/.356/.525, leading to a wRC+ of 134. He also stole 20 bases and was worth four Outs Above Average in center field. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating weren’t as high on his defense this year but they still have considered him to be above-average in his career. With Kiermaier’s departure, the Jays have George Springer and Daulton Varsho in two outfield spots but could easily fit Bellinger in there. His ability to play first base on occasion could be a useful bonus as well.
Candelario is a corner infielder and would fit as a replacement for Chapman at third in Toronto. Like Bellinger, Candelario had a bounceback season in 2023 after being non-tendered. Between the Nats and the Cubs, he hit 22 home runs and walked in 9.2% of plate appearances. He hit .251/.336/.471 overall for a wRC+ of 117. DRS has never liked his glovework at third but UZR and OAA consider him to be around league average. His 2022 campaign was a disaster but his 2021 and 2023 seasons look quite similar and he was even better in the shortened 2020 season.
It’s perhaps notable that Candelario is a switch-hitter while each of Bellinger and Ohtani are left-handed. With players this good, the handedness may not matter as much as simply upgrading the lineup overall, but they would add some balance to a lineup that currently projects to lean right-handed. The departures of Kiermaier and Belt leave the Jays with just Varsho and Biggio as lefties who seem likely to get regular at-bats, with Spencer Horwitz and Nathan Lukes perhaps in depth roles. Addison Barger is also on the roster but has yet to make his major league debut. Tyler Heineman is a switch-hitter but is third on the catching depth chart behind Danny Jansen and Alejandro Kirk.
The Jays will undoubtedly have plenty of competition in these pursuits. Ohtani’s unique talents and marketability have led to widespread interest around the league, while Bellinger and Candelario have had plenty of suitors as well. The Jays currently have a 2024 payroll of $205MM and a competitive balance tax figure of $216MM, per Roster Resource, though non-tendering a couple members of their arbitration class could knock those numbers down some.
MLBTR’s predicted Ohtani to get a record-setting deal of $528MM over 12 years, Bellinger to get $264MM over the same length and Candelario $70MM over four years. The Jays have given out some sizeable contracts in recent years, including Springer getting $150MM while Kevin Gausman got $110MM. Signing Ohtani or Bellinger would require them to go to a new level but they may be willing to do so in order to make the big splash they seek. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimated their Opening Day payroll was $210MM in 2023, though their CBT number went into the $260MM range. President/CEO Mark Shapiro has indicated the club expects payroll to be in a similar range in 2024.
Bellinger would be a great fit to help bring balance to the lineup
Or he could play like the couple years before.
@reds- He could, but apparently much of his struggles were due to injury and allergies that affected his eyesight. He reportedly got both squared away prior to 2023 and was back to mashing. No idea if that’s true, but that’s what Boras and Bellinger have claimed.
You can believe half of what Boras says and the other half are lies.
Allergies or smoking to much weed?
All his words are dipped in snake oil. Buyer beware.
I could, but since Bellinger produced this year after all those statements were made, it suddenly sounds less like an excuse and more like the truth.
You think he suddenly stopped smoking weed? Lol I highly doubt that.
It’s so funny when people treat Boras like some Svengali. He’s a good negotiator and owners sometimes make bad deals to his benefit. There’s nothing more to it.
But will he bring balance to the force? The 4 elements? The checkbooks?
The caveat is that Bellinger has no real defensive home on the Blue Jays. Centre field is locked up by Varsho, while first base would mean permanently DHing Guerrero, which would eliminate any playing time from the surfeit of strong bat/little defensive value type players Toronto has in their system, such as Martinez, Horwitz, and Palemegiani. Overall, Bellinger’s lack of defensive home on the current roster and troubling batted-ball data should give Toronto significant pause towards ponying up the largest dollar amount at all costs for his services.
He could just play LF.
The issue here is that you’re paying a player, much of whose value is being a premium defender, in a position where defense is far less important than in centre field – Varsho being case in point last year. In a vacuum, sure, Bellinger is a great addition to any team, but given the present Blue Jays roster it seems like a misallocation of resources.
So belly is limited to CF or 1st? I mean LF exists
Same logic as explained above, their spending money would be better suited to a player that is not being underutilized defensively.
So you get a GG LF instead of an average to slightly above average CF. Toronto couldn’t use a more than average OF? All FAs are overpays so why not make the OF a plus?
Move him around. He could play 1B sometimes to let Vlad DH or even just spell him; him and Varsho could move around the OF a little, playing a bit of each spot; he could also DH some to stay fresh.
Not in Canada. Remember it’s all metric up there.
Stymeedone gets it, the same reason they paid premium to have overqualified Varsho in LF and KK in centre this year. Same premise.
I think he could be in LF or CF, depending on where Varsho is stationed. Who fields center the best? I agree that 1B and some DH are locked up by Vladdy, but it’s great to have a surplus of versatile players.
Wouldn’t you just play Varsho or Bellinger in LF?
See the other replies for context – payroll allocation is also a factor, so I didn’t want to analyze the transaction in a pure vacuum.
Not a lot of options for offense. Did you take that into consideration? There are very few FA that can provide a solid bat, and Chapman is considered one of the top. If he is what you want to improve on, then you will pay.
Agreed, Bellinger can provide significant offensive upside. I don’t mean to disparage the idea of signing Bellinger entirely, I just thought that for the Toronto roster specifically his defense will be less felt, and, as his offense remains a question mark – his exit velocity and barrel rate have each plummeted since his 2019 peak – they won’t be the MOST attractive landing spot for him. That doesn’t devalue the overall contract that he eventually receives, however, since mamy other potential suitors have openings in centre field/at first base, so you are very much correct in that aspect.
Ergo, their available momey could be used to pursue Ohtani (although he himself comes with serious concerns at a 500 MM+ amount), or a combination of other hitters, as mentioned in the article (Candelario, Soler, Chapman, Jung-Hoo Lee or a reunion with Hernandez/Gurriel).
What a stupid comment
Varsho played a lot and is better in LF.
Center isn’t locked up by Varsho, he did pretty good in LF if another CF comes along.
I guess you haven’t paid for a Canadian beer at Rogers Center. Don’t let the Looney dogs fool you. The ticket prices are also pretty steep. Also have to remember the owner is also who owns the Media outlet and stadium.
You’re presuming the other players stay where they are. What if Guerrero goes elsewhere, perhaps to the Padres for Juan Soto?
My guess from chats with people who claim to talk with insiders, is that the deck chair re-arrangements in Toronto may surprise a lot of people. No hints because nobody has been moved or signed yet, but internally various scenarios are ready to roll. This seems consistent with other insider claims, but may be just typical silly season guesswork.
My belief is that for the Jays, as well as other teams, of course, where Ohtani goes is the big hold-up. If one of the teams fills its other holes first they could point to that when talking to Ohtani. But then I’m sure all the sweepstakes teams have a sense by now where they stand, although some may think they’re in the running when they’re not.
I love the next 6 weeks;. It’s the time when we are happy and sad and looking forward to warm weather again…
Nah, Bellinger is a significant upgrade on Varsho. Varsho may have a slight edge on D but overall it isn’t even close. Varsho has shown nothing more than being a low 200s hitter with decent pop. The only reason he would have center field “locked up” is because of Shapiro and Atkins and the absurd trade that brought him here
Bellinger can’t play CF over the great Daulton Varsho?
Got it. Thanks.
His power went down significantly last year, not sure he is a good investment. That said, not sure what other options are there in FA market. I’d argue that even Ohtani represents a huge risk due to his health struggles.
He missed a month on the IL
And a couple of TJ surgeries…
$528 million is a little light
Given he’s only a one way player for a while, probably not.
That’s why you can backload the deal after 2025, which is when he’s on target to return to the mound. Make 2024 and 2025 each “lower” AAV years, then backload the rest of the contract. Although, this might be a really super creative contract. Full of performance bonuses, possible opt out years, etc.
I wonder if the exchange rate of Canadian Dollars to US Currency impacts the Jays? Will it go up or down over the next few years and what happens if then?
The Blue Jays pay their players in USD.
While they pay salaries to players in US dollars the fans pay for tickets and other stuff in Canadian Dollars. I’m sure they do some hedging in currency for that purpose but I recall 10 or 15 years ago the Jays had money issues due to currency exchange rates. I wonder if they give out a $30m to $50m a year deal to a few players how does that impact them if they are looking at 6 – 8 or 10 year contracts. Lots of variable for ownership yet player doesn’t have that volatility on their side of the deal.
You’re correct about risks now and what happened years ago. And it’s a real potential concern as Canadian dollar keeps dropping. I believe the Jays hedge their exposures by buying and selling US dollar futures and of course buying insurance on the risk. Insurance is available for almost anything these days…
Like Boras, don’t Believe too much the 2 Clowns say, shapiro and atkins stretch the truth too !!
Both are like turkeys this time of year: they puff up big and spread their tail feathers when talking free agency, but underneath all that bluster is a skinny little bird who is already thinking up excuses why they missed out on the top free agents. Happy Thanksgiving from the TOR FO.
Yup. Missed out on top free agents Hyun Jin Ryu, George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt. There’s been like one a year – have you been in a coma?
Are you just upset that they haven’t signed every free agent ever? 29 other teams are gonna miss out on each free agent. Also – the free agent is like, free to decide stuff too…
Sure they sign these free agents but Shapiro and Atkins should have left town long ago. Ryu has done next to nothing for us, overpaid on Springer who has been close to ordinary. And Varsho for Moreno and Guriel?! And with the payroll they have to work with each year come on
It’s a shell game until they say “that’s our final offer” and then the poker really starts.
Best strategy: I don’t know, but would think it wouldn’t be telling them you’ll match any other offer plus 10%. In real estate bidding, there’s the ‘bully offer’. Will it also work in Ohtani bidding? Will it at least limit the number of other bidders?
The Jays appear to run a tight ship so I don’t expect to hear rumours before any specific signing…
The one insider that predicted that Toronto could be a sleeper re: signing Ohtani is in rehab now, and doing well, thank you.
I’d like to know the defn of an industry “insider”. How many qualify? If its hundreds and only one thinks Toronto is a sleeper, I will just discount it as mental illness as 1/100 probably are effected.
Given how often bats break, they should probably looking to add hundreds of them.
Microchiroptera or Megachiroptera?
The alternate universe where they sign Bellinger last year anbd Moreno seizes the catching job. Kirk gets traded for some other sort of help. Varsho goes back to catching in Arizona because his bat is THAT bad. Blue Jays in 6
Candelario is buyer beware. Avoid. Ohtani is likely going to stay on the west coast. Dodgers will overpay everyone.
How about they trade for Moreno?
Does Varsho and Springer get it done?
Candelario is likely to lead the league in doubles.
It’s never an offseason until we get multiple stories regarding the Blue Jays being in on top free agents.
And they’ve signed top free agents for 4 years running; just not enough of them and let one slip away they should’ve kept (Marcus Semien).
Ohtani proposal:
Year 1. 40M DH
Year 2-6. 55M DH + Starter
Year 7-11. 45M DH + Closer
Year 12. 35M DH
12 years and 575M. There could be variables included, milestone awards, caveats on if he is not pitching or starting beyond those 5 years. But that is the rough parameter. Thoughts
That’s not a bad scenario. You can safely add, MVP votes, MVP wins, Cy Young nominations and wins, along with probably innings pitched possibly on there too. The fact that you have him transitioning to a closer role is a real possibility too. Pretty sure we’re going to need an entire article explaining his contract once he signs.
Pretty realistic proposal but I just don’t see him pitching at all after about year 5 or 6. The daily rigors of the game and his past surgeries will catch up to him by his mid 30s
Jays signing Ohtani and Bellinger.
Hope that’s your money!
Ohtani ain’t going to Canada
Ohtani is heading back to Southern California.
Based on hopes or based on something else? When he came to MLB he didn’t know all the cities and picked one closest to Japan. Now that he’s been in every ballpark he has a sense of the parks and the cities.
Based on that I would suggest in addition to the California teams (not the A’s) he might consider the Mets or Yankees, Braves or Blue Jays, possibly even the Red Sox or Cubs. The Blue Jays have a domed stadium so no worries on cold Spring or Fall starts in Toronto. New York is the centre of media while the West Coast teams are largely invisible when 70% of the US and Canadian populations live in the East. The Jays are owned by a national media company which could lead to endorsement deals covering the country. The Yankees own a network which would get him the profile he deserves. Mets owner says they won’t compete in 2024 but is he just playing possum?
My bet is on Ohtani NOT returning to California.
To be fair it’s been announced in the media that he’s less concerned about where he’s playing and what the quality of the team is this time around. Not saying it will be the Jays, but it’s not a lock that he goes out west this time around. That being said Toronto having the largest Asian community in North America won’t hurt their chances.
Toronto has the money, an upgraded stadium but harry and Loyd incharge
Bingo! Yet again that’s why the world series won’t include the Jays in ’24. Maybe they will one up their foolish Moreno/Guriel move by trading Bo for next to nothing too
Bo and Tiedemann for Schwarber sounds accurate.
No matter who lands Ohtani, I am anticipating one of those bizarre situations where a team signs a guy (in this case Ohtani) for a record breaking AAV over multiple years and then sits him and IL’s him almost more often than they actively play him, in order to (paraphrasing here) ‘preserve the player because playing too much will limit their ability to play, which would diminish the value of the deal’.
After watching J Heyward ground out to second base for 8 yrs I hope Cubs don’t give anyone a contract more than 4 years
One of the highest revenue generating teams that happens to be owned by a massive mega billion dollar publicly traded company, renovated stadium, great fan base, etc.
It is interesting that American fans especially don’t realize how truly massive Toronto and it owners are.
They could field a team with the highest paid players in the league in every available roster spot and still make money.
It would be that easy unfortunately most of the highest paid players suck!
Toronto will do what is best for the team and they will be really good and a lot better next year.
They absolutely could and should sign whomever they please.
Not true sir.
1) Toronto is not the centre of the universe
2) The Jays may make lots of money for Rogers but Rogers is a corporation and is not going to allow the GM to sign the highest paid players at every position. Rogers has shareholders that like money too.
3) Not everyone wants to play in Canada. It is seen as a strange place for many US players -different money/ culture/ politics
4)Big USA markets are often more desirable due to endorsements and simply because some players associate themselves with them
5) There are more taxes to pay in Canada
6) Sorry to tell you but most Canadians* dont like Toronto. There are lots of guys in the NHL who would never sign with the Leaves.
*I’m Canadian
T.O. is falling apart.
Ohtani isn’t American, so he may be more open to signing there. From what I hear Toronto is a diverse city with a large Asian community.
I thought the hockey team in Toronto was Leafs, not leaves?
Yes, the hockey team’s name failed grade 1 spelling… After following baseball and other pro sports for ~50 years, it seems to me most elite athletes follow money and / or the chance for a championship. Ohtani won’t sign with the Jays because the FO will lowball and insult him, and it is transparent the FO has no real plan to take the team to the World Series.
1. Only LA and NYC in MLB cities are larger than Toronto and Toronto has all of Canada as fans. It doesn’t matter what people in Moose Jaw or Woodstock think of Toronto, they love and follow the Jays — on TV, radio and by going to games all over the US.
2 Rogers shareholders are controlled by Rogers family members, and they know a winning team makes more money — they’ve seen the books.
3. A high percentage of players aren’t American any more so that doesn’t matter — the players who have played in Toronto have generally praised the team for spending on all the other things, training facilities, stadium, health, etc. And I bet they have a video on the way to Ohtani which has those players from now and the past talking directly to Ohtani about why Toronto is a great place to play and live. Very safe, very multicultural, over 6 million people living within 90 minutes of the stadium…
4. They’re desirable, I agree, but endorsements for Blue Jays players are national across Canada. And don’t preclude US endorsements. It has surprised players in the past when they’re in the depths of an Alberta winter and they’re mobbed on the ‘winter caravan visits’.
5. Taxes are dealt with by period of residency. Because players actually do more than 50% of their work outside of Canada (Spring Training plus ‘away’ games), they are only taxed in Canada for the less than 50% they do here. And that can easily be accommodated by higher salary. Having tax lawyers involved is due diligence by both sides in a contract negotiation.
6. Some hockey players like to be anonymous, such as Ryan O’Reilly who chose to go to Nashville so he could take his kids to hockey practice without being mobbed. I get that. But the Blue Jays have a different vibe (as do the Raptors) and historically it hasn’t been an issue. In 1992 and 1993 they had power-packed teams, from both trades and free agency. That opportunity is here again.
* I’m Canadian, too, and watched many a game in CNE stadium before the dome was built. I don’t miss freezing…
@ducey
Some bad generalizations you made.
#1 – agreed.
#2 – depends. If the Jays as an investment are a money-maker, I as a shareholder would love to invest in this team. Based on their spending recently, no reason to believe they’re losing money.
#3 – okay, but if they were to add term or extra $$$ most will sign with them. And yes, there ARE players who would sign in Toronto even with price being equal – safer, cleaner, better schools.
#4 – agree for the most part. But if it’s Ohtani we’re talking about this logic does not apply – a perennial MVP, unicorn-supreme is waaay too big to fly under the radar – he’d be on the spotlight 24/7 any potential endorsements will not be impacted.
#5 – agreed.
#6 – wrong. apples to oranges comp. MLB is not the NHL – being the only Canadian team its only natural that fans from all over the country would be supporting the team. All you need to do is watch any Jays road game. In lots of cases, the number of visiting Jays fans are enormous – sometimes out-cheering the home team. I live in Vancouver and can tell you for a fact that Jays games in Seattle is a very popular tourist destinations for Canadadians from BC, Alberta, and Sask. Busloads of them make a trek across the border they’re considered a nuisance in WA state.
“…safer, cleaner, better schools”
Ohtani would likely be equally secure in Los Angeles; I doubt it’s a significant factor.
Cleanliness? With Ohtani’s resources, he can choose the best neighborhoods anywhere he resides.
Education? Considering his busy schedule, it’s doubtful he has time for children, let alone sending them to public schools.
Let’s avoid painting Toronto as a paradise; it probably faces similar challenges as other major cities.
Then bust loose and give Guerrero a 10 yr mega deal mistake trust me he ain’t his dad
I believe Guerrero should be traded now. Let someone else hope he lives up to his hype.
Shohei moving to the most culturally diverse city in North America? I can see that…
“Ross Atkins has admitted…” Let’s get real. This guy, and his overlord Shapiro, say anything they think will appease fans and cover their behinds. Ugh…
Bellinger would be a nice signing for the Jays but not Ohtani. Just too steep a contract that they would probably regret by year 5 or so. No one is worth half a BILLION dollars or more
Think Othani as 2x$250M players who only costs one roster spot.
Unless you want to sell tickets, and sell advertisers on your TV and radio ratings… Then the market determines.
He’s not Judge, just a hitter. He’s another Babe Ruth.
BTW the Babe hit his first professional home run in Toronto less than a kilometre from the Rogers ballpark…
Jays had the offence two years ago and chose to trade away two key pieces of it and a top prospect for a reliever and a bat that didn’t produce at the same level as Lourdes did in Arizona.
Some will say regression from the key hitters in the Jays lineup, but the truth is Vlad’s 2023 was pretty much inline with his 2022. Bo hit better in 2023, and like Vlad, Springer’s 2023 was pretty much inline with his 2022.
It’s hard to imagine the Jays will get the quality and health out of the starting staff in 2024 that they got in 2023. Adding two bats is imperative, and not a Belt or Varsho level bat.