As right-hander Aaron Nola hits free agency for the first time in his career, there have been indications of mutual interest in a reunion with the Phillies, as both Nola and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski have spoken publicly about a desire to continue the relationship into 2024 and beyond. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi cautions, however, that the sides are not “at all close on a reunion.” While Morosi acknowledges the “strong” relationship between Nola and the Phillies, he suggests that due to the number of teams in the market for pitching help this season, there’s a “better than 50/50” chance that Nola is able to find a better offer outside of Philadelphia.
That Nola’s camp wouldn’t look to get together on a deal with the Phillies this early in the offseason is hardly surprising. After all, the sides were unable to agree on an extension prior to the 2023 campaign, and with Nola now a free agent he figures to be one of the most attractive rotation arms on the open market this offseason to teams in need of pitching. He ranked fifth overall in MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, behind only NPB superstar Yoshinobu Yamamoto and left-hander Blake Snell among this offseason’s starting pitching market. That being said, there’s still reason for optimism regarding a reunion between the sides, as Morosi suggests that Nola could give the Phillies the opportunity to match if he receives a better offer elsewhere.
Of course, Nola is far from the only quality starter on the market, meaning the Phillies will have plenty of alternatives available should he depart for another club this winter. In addition to Yamamoto and Snell, left-handers Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga figure to be among the upper-tier rotation arms available this offseason. Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray is also available this offseason and has already been connected to the Phillies, while Brewers ace Corbin Burnes and Rays righty Tyler Glasnow are among the front-of-the-rotation caliber arms who could potentially be available in trade this offseason.
More from the Phillies…
- ESPN’s Buster Olney reported earlier today that Philadelphia has “no intention” of trading outfielder Nick Castellanos this offseason. While previous reporting had indicated that the club could be open to moving Castellanos, MLBTR’s Steve Adams discussed the pitfalls in such a strategy yesterday. Given the likelihood that Philadelphia would likely have to attach a prospect or eat significant salary to move the remaining three seasons on Castellanos’s deal, it’s hardly a surprise that the club doesn’t expect to deal the two-time All Star ahead of his age-32 campaign. With Kyle Schwarber set to be the club’s regular DH and Bryce Harper poised to remain at first base long term, Castellanos figures to remain entrenched as the club’s everyday right fielder, with Brandon Marsh in left and Johan Rojas in center barring any additions to the club’s outfield mix.
- The Phillies recently announced a series of promotions in their front office, headlined by Brian Barber being promoted to the role of assistant GM, amateur scouting and Preston Mattingly being promoted to the role of assistant GM, player development. Barber has overseen the club’s amateur drafts since joining the club following the 2019 season. Mattingly, the son of longtime player and manager Don Mattingly, joined the Phillies as director of player development at the end of the 2021 season after five years as a member of the Padres’ scouting department.
Dombrowski has done a good job picking the right players to pay. It’s not so easy as the Yankees, Mets and Padres showed. But they don’t have much flexibility left. Taijuan Walker’s deal way way too much from the beginning and having multiple DHs is a problem. Nobody wants Castellanos
? He paid 4 dudes and 3 of them suck. Turner’s contract already lookin shaky too
Nothing you say is true…sound like the old drunk guy at the end of the bar.
Castellanos has put up 0.2 fWAR combined in the last 2 years. He blows. Schwarber put up 1.4 despite leading the league in PA lol. But yeah, keep paying 20 m/year each for multiple DHs. Good strategy.
Taijuan has never been good. 18 m/per for that dude is absolutely insane.
Once Turner’s speed is gone that contract’ll be an albatross. He already can’t play SS
Turner had 32 SBs this year, with 0 CS, and he didn’t run as much because he struggled to get to 1B early on, and he also usually had Harper up behind him. If he steals 2B, Harper gets walled more often than not. Turner is still in the top 10 sprint speeds in baseball. If the team moves him off SS, he’ll be an above average defensive 2B, or CF. He’s already shown he can play there and Stott was an excellent SS last year(2022)& should have had a GG at 2B this past season.
Taijuan Walker has had 2 good, healthy seasons in a row.
Taijuan Walker was 15-4 last year. His ERA and other stats were skewed a bit in late August/early September, but I’m happy with hijbin the rotation.
Terrible take. Every contending team, especially now, is overpaying for someone. Turner’s 11 YEAR contract cannot be looking ‘shady’ after one where he hit a tad over league average overall. The Alvarado, Marsh trades were great, and w/o Casty or Schwarbs, they may not have been in the playoffs at all the last 2 years, so they don’t ‘suck’). I like Casty, hope they keep him.
Castellanos is trash. Great to hear you like him tho
Turner’s deal is shady because he only will play SS for maybe 4 years of the deal.
He paid Harper & Turner over $300m each, and while Turner had a rough go into August, he still hit extremely well from August 4 -game 4 of the NLCS. Schwarber got 4-85M , and has led the NL in HRs both seasons he’s been here, and Castellanos got 5-100M , had a bad year last year, but was an all star this season, and basically beat ATL in the NLDS with 4 HRs in games 3&4. Taijuan got 4-75M, and pitched well enough to lead the team in Wins. I think DD has done a great job.
I think Castellanos & Taijuan could get packaged with Abel, Muzziotti, Aidan Miller, + maybe 2 more mid level prospects for Trout and $$$. Have the Angels pay $125M on Trout’s contract.Re-sign Nola,6/150m and maybe sign a guy like Gray or Giolito to the staff.
Stott 2B
Turner SS
Harper 1B
Trout LF
Schwarber DH
Bohm 3B
Marsh RF
JT C
Rojas
Bench – Stubbs, D.Hall, Sosa, Pache, W.Wilson
Wheeler
Nola
Suarez
Giolito
Sanchez
BP
Seranthony RH
Alvarado LH
Kerkering RH
Strahn LH
Hoffman RH
Soto LH
A.Baker RH
Brogdon RH
I’d be xomforttwith those guys
Can we please stop with all the Trout talk? You want to give up two of the best prospects the Phillies have drafted/developed in years for an aging, chronically injured player just because he used to be the best player in the league and grew up in the Philly area?
If the Phillies trade for Trout, they’re not getting MVP-Trout; they’d be getting a guy who plays a 120 games at most—likely much less going forward, as players who tend to get injured in their 20s don’t suddenly heal in their 30s.. If the Phillies were to package Abel & Miller together, they could get a much more productive & available player than Trout.
> I think … could get … Trout
Nothing think about,
Schwarber trade for Trout
Unless the Angels are kicking in significant money, I’d keep Schwarber. Out from under his deal in two years OR still owing a 35 year old Trout more than they will have paid Schwarber & Castellanos through their entire contracts.
Stop your nonsense it’s to early for this
Small correction here, Schwarber did not lead the NL in HR in 2023. Matt Olson was the leader with 54.
The only way that trade happens is if The money with trout is $37 mil per year.
He didn’t pay Harper
I honestly think they can throw Mike on LF instead of center where he’ll actually have less physical demands and sometimes also DH him and send Schwabs to the field ( like 20/25 games)
If Trouty can give you 130 games healthy that’s better than having Johan Rojas 162 tbh.
I think Philly need to have players that are flexible.
gww, Trout will go down as one of the greatest players of all time, but his best days are in the rearview mirror. Your offer to the Angels is absurd. Although I would like to see Trout finish his career with the Phils, I would rather keep Castellanos, Walker, and Abel. A much better trade would be Schwarber plus prospects for Trout. Understand that Trout controls his entire destiny with the Angels and can veto any trade. As Trout gets older, I’m sure he’d rather be DHing for the Phils and have Castellanos in the outfield than playing the outfield and have Schwarber as the full time DH.
I wouldn’t want to trade Schwabs, I know he’s strikeout prone, think he should be working on that tbh. I don’t want him to hit 270 but it won’t harm him to hit over 225, also he’s a waste as leadoff hitter.
But I do want Trout on the team.
With the recent news of the Astros being tied on their budget if I was Dombrowski I will go crazy and try to trade for king Tuck
From an objective standpoint, why do you want Trout on the Phillies? I understand he used to be the best player in the game, and he grew up a Phillies fan. However, he’s no longer the best player in the game—and won’t be, even those days he’s healthy—and he can barely stay on the field.
Other than for nostalgia reasons, what sense does it make to allocate the necessary resources—trade capital and money—to acquire Trout?
Are you taking any hallucinogenic drugs? Sure you can get Tucker…For Painter, Abel, Marsh, Wheeler and Rojas. How’s that for starters? I don’t care how cash starved you say the Astros are. Tucker ain’t goin nowhere.
I will just tell you something about Tucker now out of jokes, Astros better figure it before next year, because if they’re having a hard time to extend Bregman and Altuve, King Tuck might as well walk on FA, and there the topic will be completely different.
I guess will see the development
I would make that trade for Trout in a heartbeat, even knowing that Trout hasn’t been healthy in 3 seasons. Last year (22) Trout bit 40 HEs in 120 games, with a .280/400 avg/obp, and he has a hot streak prior to his injury this year. The Phillies are in a 3/4 year window for their current group of stars to be in their prime/close to it. Trading Castellanos 20M (Trout is a big upgrade due to Nicks streaky bat and his 20m/3 more seasons will help balance $), Taijuan is a good SP, probably LAA #1 or 2 but the 18M /3 more years can be put towards Nola(Or another SP),.Mick Abel is going to be a MLB pitcher and will probably have a 10 year career, but he won’t be a sure thing as a SP this year or maybe ever., Muzziotti is a great glove in CF,and showed he can hit this year, but Rojas has that job,q/ Pache & Marsh, ahead of him also, not to mention Crawford right on his heels.A Miller is 3/4 years away from possibly being an MLB player, so those guys are expendable to me to bring Trout into a lineup of 2B Stott SS Turner,1B Harper,LF Trout, DH Schwarber,3B Bohm, RF Marsh,C JT, CF Rojas, with Stubbs/Marxhan, Sosa, Pache, and maybe D.Hall, W.Wilson,or ??? Wheeler, Nola, Ranger, Sanchez and ??? Whoever they want to sign as a SP, maybe Yamamoto? Gray? Giolito ?
The reason that I would give up the prospects is for the Angels to kick in 1/2 of Trout’s $. $19M/year for the duration (8/9 more years I believe?) Too lazy to look it up now
Phils need to keep Schwarber unless they get another power LH bat,they can’t have just Bryce to be the sole source of legit power from the left side, Stott and Marsh are good hitters from the left side, but they probably max out as 20 HR hitters, but with plenty of extra base power, as well as obp and ++ baserunners. Unless Darick Hall is a 30+HR hitter, then they don’t have another anywhere near MLB ready in their system.
Castellanos and Walker being included saves $38.8M per year for the next 3 seasons which allow you to resign Nola + another SP. adding the prospects is to get LAA to pay half of Trout’s salary remaining salary . When healthy, Trout is still one of the best players in MLB.Last year,while healthy he hit.308/.393/.591 with 9 HR over 30 games. In 2022 he played 119 games and hit .288/.369/.600 with 40 HRs. ’21 .333/.466/.6621 over 35 games, and ’20 .281/.390/.603 w/ 19 HRs…that was over 47 games (covid season). If he’s healthy, and has the protection that this lineup will provide, he can put up those #a for 4/5 more years.
When you take back Trout who makes $37M+, you’re not saving $38.8M…it’s essentially a wash.
If Trout had any other name on the back of his jersey and all the red flags—despite his history—no one in Philly would be clamoring for him. Fans want to do this deal because of who he is, not what he’s capable of anymore. I have no doubt that Mick Abel, from this point forward, will be worth more to whatever club he’s apart of than Trout will be.
Trout will without a doubt be traded,, likely this off-season if not, before the deadline. The Angels will lose Ohtani to the other side of LA, or maybe Seattle? Wherever he signs, it won’t be back with the Halos After he leaves, Trout has already spoken to Moreno about the state of the team. The Angels have very little big league talent, and even less in the minors. They’ve already spoken about Trout being traded for Trout’s sake, and the Angels sake, as they have about a .1 chance to make the playoffs in the next 3/3 years. He still hits for high average, on base, and power. If you subtract the final 21 games he played when he was playing hurt, but the 1st 5 weeks he hit 306/.401.9 HRs. The prior year he hit .183/ 306/.620 with 40 JRs last year.ill take that and
Castellanos $20, Taijuan $18, and Phillies get Tru 9 $15M
That was supposed to say Castellanos $20(3years), Taijuan $18M (3years), Soto $4.5M with an arbitration year remaining,and a prospect package for Trout and Drury (plays 7 positions, and destroys LHP) as well as LA kicking in-50% of Trout’s remaining salary . So Trout @$20/7years Drury $7m/1year and approximately $18M towards filling out the rotation/pen is more helpful to winning in the next 3 years than Castellanos 3/60M, Walker 3/54M, Soto 2/12M? and then Abel(maybe a rotation piece this year ? ,Miller 4 years away, & Muzziotti(or Pache?)(seems blocked here at the moment
Starting lineup vs RH
Stott
Turner
Harper
Trout
Schwarber
Bohm
Marsh
JT (I’d play JT some more off games, or time at DH, 1B this year, fo preserve his knees.
Rojas
(Could also play Bryce in RF and resign Rhys to power up the lineup more)
Vs LH
Turner
Stott
Trout
Harper
Bohm
Schwarber
JT
Drury
Rojas(Pache)
Could also put Rhys in here and remove Schwarber vs LH or play Pache + Rojas in the OF to give Trout, Bryce or ?? A DH day.
Who didn’t pay Harper?
If they trade Schwarber in that concept, it unbalances the lineup structure. They have Harper and Schwarber as the only 2 power bats on the team. While the BA drives me insane also, unless you are bringing in a power LH bat (30+ HRs), you can’t have 6 RHB, 1 great LH hitter, Harper, and 2 good LH hitter(Stott & Narsh), who are good, develoing hitters, but not a power threat like Schwarber is essential in the lineup, unless you add someone outside the organization or believe Darick Hall can be the 30+HR hitter who could replace him?
amk, “Nobody wants Castellanos.” And you know this, how? Since when is an outfielder with a .272 BA, 29 homers, 100+ RBIs, nor errors, and a number of game saving assists not desirable?
If Castellanos were a free agent this year, he’d be a top 5 hitter on the board, and probably get 4 years 100m, the Phils got him at 5-100m. There are 3 teams who’ve asked about him, Yankees, were 1 of them.
No, he wouldn’t. Nobody would even give that guy 20 m
When they’re a statue in the OF and swing at everything. Nobody wants that guy
Thanks for your hilarious comments. Your nonsense posts are always entertaining
Pat, Statues don’t hit .272 with 100+ RBIs and 29 homers in a season. Also, statues don’t play error-free ball in right field and throw runners out at home plate.
Are you serious? Just look at the anonymous players ahead of Castellanos that have a higher WaR. There must be at least 100…$20m/year for 1.5 WaR is an albatross. Yea he had a great nlds proving that a blind squirrel sometimes finds a nut.
Whatever happens with Nola you have to trust Dombowski. He’s proven that he knows what he is doing.
Have to give it to him. Dombrowski really has won, everywhere he has been.
The teams he laid the foundation for in Montreal and assembled in Florida could have lasted, if ownership had allowed it.
There are some huge red flags for NC going forward. He struck out 185 times last year and only produced 1.5 WAR and an OPS+ of 112. He’ll be 32 next season. His LD% is down and his GB% is up while still producing a .337 BABIP. His best comp over the last 3 years is Vernon Wells. Castellanos might swan dive off a cliff next year. Combined with Schwarber the Phillies might have two giant boat anchors on the roster next season. If the Phillies want to continue to contend, they might have to trade NC for whatever they can or risk having an even bigger albatross going forward.
He has at that.
Wheeler, Harper, Schwarber all excellent signings. Much better than let’s say…Stanton.
Castellanos in Philly was the best landing spot though maybe not the best player.
As for Nola, he will likely be much overpaid for eating innings.
Dombrowski should look elsewhere.
I gotta believe the Phillies will find the money to pay Nola. He was a huge part of their success the last few years. They are moving on from Hoskins. I think they will sign him. Why wouldn’t they?
Why? Because you’re in trouble if you’re paying for past results. Guy will demand a contract neglecting that 2 of his last 3 seasons have been below average (per ERA+), coming off a career-worst season. Career low in SO/9, career-high in HR/9. There’s a few options at different price points that can replace him with Sonny Gray being an obvious choice.
Why would other teams ignore his statistics but not the Phillies?
He’s a huge part of why they were in the world series in 2022 and in the NLCS in 2023. They set money on fire signing guys like Schwarber, Castellanos and Turner. Why would they suddenly get cheap now?
It’s not being cheap to recognize that his arm has too many innings on it and his overall performance has trended in the wrong direction. Give him and Hoskins a gold watch each and spend whatever it takes to sign Yamamoto.
Only 1 team is signing Yamamoto and I would bet anything it won’t be the Phillies.
Nola is a good pitcher. The Phillies and Nola have a relationship that has benefited both sides to this point. To think the Phillies can and will find someone better than Nola is crazy.
I hope Phillies go for it with Yamamoto, even if chnace is small. 7 years 220 mil or 8/250.
That sounds more like what it will take to sign Nola.
Again anyone who thinks if the Phillies don’t sign Nola they will get a better pitcher instead is crazy. Next up would probably be Gray but I don’t see why they wouldn’t just sign Nola.
Joel, Teams are desperate for marquis pitching and will pay through the nose to be able to appease fans and acquire a pitcher who has been another team’s ace. But you get what you pay for, and whoever signs Nola will be taking a chance. Throughout 2023, he was Jekyll and Hyde, frequently pitching 4 good innings, only to be pulled in the 5th inning because he was getting lit up. Nola had a number of good years with the Phils, but he didn’t pitch like an ace the past two seasons. He’s not worth the $300 million for 7-8 years he wants, but some team will definitely pay him more than the Phils are willing to.
I am in a 100% agreement with you and would definitely like to see the Phillies signing Yamamoto. Unfortunately, the Phillies signing Yamamoto for any figure, I absolutely don’t see happening.
Not sure what it is with the Phillies, but having Asian players on their team doesn’t happen. Chan Ho Park, Iguchi and Taguchi are the only three that they ever had, that I recall. And they were not one of their go all in and sign at the top of their game career years. They were their usual bottom of the barrel player’s career pickups to see what little gas we can squeeze out of their fumes as a backup player.
So, I definitely don’t see the Phillies signing Yamamoto. Any headline rumors you see or hear of the Phillies interested in him. Move on, it’s just a moneymaking gimmick article to get you to read the article is a far fetched dream scenario.
Joel, The Phils can and probably will find a better starting pitcher than Nola. If they find a pitcher who may not be as potentially talented as Nola or who doesn’t record as many strikeouts, but who can give the Phils more innings each game and pitch with greater consistency, the team will be better off than they were with Nola. What’s more, they’ll probably pay less for such a pitcher.
Gray won’t require the years Nola will.
Dombrowski usually keeps things close to the vest. Past doesn’t have to be prologue. All it takes is commitment, money, and lots of cliches.
Again the Phillies have handed out stupid contract after stupid contract the last few years. To strangers. Why are the Phillies suddenly going to be financially responsible when it comes to paying their own guy?
Who is this pitcher that is better than Nola and will cost less? Please tell me what only you and the Phillies know. This mystery top secret pitcher. Who is this guy????
What do years matter to a team like the Phillies? If you give Nola 8 years him Harper and Turner will all he declining at the same time. What’s the problem with that?
Yamamoto is younger and likely better than Nola and won’t cost more.
The Phillies aren’t signing Yamamoto. So who else is out there better than Nola?
Spend whatever it takes lol. That strategy doesn’t work year after year after year.
If Yamamoto is younger and better than Nola than why on earth do you think he won’t cost more????
Someone will pay Nola top dollar, perhaps 8/220. While Yamamoto may get more total dollars, no one will give 30M a year to a pitcher who has no MLB experience.
So you are just smarter than everyone else?
Come on dude. The Phillies aren’t signing Yamamoto.
You really believe that? It would be truly stunning if Yamamoto doesn’t get a guarantee of at least $250M…he’ll likely have opt-outs to get more, but a 25 year old phenom (who will likely also generate increased revenue) will have much more teams willing to bid (and drive the price up) than a 30 year old, downward trending Nola.
But what you’d get from Gray is his 34 to 35, 35 to 36 and 36 to 37 campaigns if he’s fine with having a 3 years deal.
Nola if he was to settle for 6/7 years with a guaranteed contract of 150/165 M I will do it.
I say let’s trade for Burnes and try to extend him right away regardless if you resign Nola.
And as for the Bullpen, with Hader being FA and Devin Williams possible with a trade, I would 100 % go for those guys.
“Two wrongs don’t make a right”. If we can agree that Wheeler’s contract was a steal, giving out $72M (4 years) to Taijuan Walker is not much in comparison to the $100M more it’ll most likely take to land Nola (reportedly).
The loads they’ve given other “stupid contracts” (i.e. Castellanos: $100M; Schwarber: $79M, I believe you may be referring to) are irrelevant considering there’s much less risk on signing a position player because they play offense and defense, and have more opportunity to increase value. Even with the inferior defense that both Schwarb/Castellanos provide, they’ve provided steady offensive production, for the most part. Not saying that they’re great contracts, but they have more value than if you signed Nola for 1.5-2x that amount and his pitching continued to slip. To state the obvious, he doesn’t have offense to fall back on. I really don’t see why anyone would give him ace-level money if his stuff for the last few years (since 2020) hasn’t consistently been that, unless you’re a team in need of a marquee arm to sell tickets and create interest and take a shot at competing, much like CHC did with the Swanson signing in ’22.
ayeah, The Phils and Asian players have always done well together. If the Phils don’t sign Yamamoto it will because of the money or someone else getting to him before the Phils do.
8 years $250? Sure… Why not just sign Gray for $100m, and while we’re at it throw another $230 Snells direction. It’s only Monopoly money anyhow…
Or Yamamoto simply doesn’t want to play in Philly. Like many players don’t want to play in Philly.
It’s funny. There are players who say they don’t want to play in Philly, and then there are players who “did” play in Philly and love it there and were glad they did play in Philly.
About the only players who don’t want to play in Philly are the players who know they couldn’t play up to their contract’s value or want to give 100% every time they are out their on the field.
That’s the main reason Philly is a great place to play or the fear of players not wanting to come play in Philly.
If you can produce, admit you did wrong when you did, and work your hardest to your contract’s value. You can thrive and be loved in Philly and never have to buy yourself another drink or meal again the rest of your life.
Just any player who played in Philly and did live up to their contract’s value and expectations.
I think at worst, Nola is a guy who will make 28-32 starts per season, 200+ip, and be wellabove league average in WHIP, Ks/9, and IP for the next 5 years. Id give him 5 years 125,with incentive clauses that can make an additional 5m/year and have 2 option years of 25m, with a 10M buyout option.i think he’s worth that .
However –
I’m very interested in seeing how much the 25 year old Japanese phenom will , f they can get him at a good price (5 years 100M?) take a chance on him. His #s in Japan are absolutely insane!!!
Try 9/275.
5 years 100 million? And he’s gonna want to play in Philly???
No man. Not realistic.
The HR/9 is irrelevant in that band box.
Agreed. If Nola is who they want I have to imagine he sticks around.
Find the money to pay Nola? Middleton has it. If not, just print more. What’s the difference at this stage?
Because 2 of l ast 3 seasons have been less than stellar.
And he’s solidly in his 30s.
Whoever gives him a contract will overpay.
Spend more wisely elsewhere.
Absolutely retain Nola. Avoid Snell; high-maintenance.
Yeah, those Cy Young awards in both leagues sure are high maintenance. The comment section is rife with a unique incorrectness.
I don’t know about high-maintenance, but Snell doesn’t go as deep as I’d like for that price tag. Could be taxing on a pen, but hell, I wouldn’t mind Snell at all.
So long as you have Wheeler to pitch deep in games, Snell would be a great add to that rotation.
Not a Pads follower, I take it. You’d know otherwise.
Nope, VonPurple is correct about Snell. He’s had control issues but dances around them with big K totals. However, both of those lead to high pitch counts, so by the fifth inning he’s already at 90 pitches on most nights.
But like VonPurple said, I’d take him on my team any day.
90 pitches going into the 6th is normal. 15 or less pitches per inning is what they try to get to. That’s considered ideal.
I want no parts of Anell- even though he probably gets a 2nd CY award this year.He walks WAY too many hitters, and pitched great once SD was 8-10 games out of a wild card spot,but sucked the 1at half of the season!
It doesn’t seem snell would get any less than what Nola command, so agreed that if you are shelling out that money it is to keep Nola and not swap him out for Snell.
Too many older dudes on the roster. Window closing fast.
That’s why they should sign him. Harper has 8 years left I believe. Give Nola 8 years and they can both decline around the same time. Hopefully get a ring before it happens.
Joel, Given his past history and pitching style, it’s unlikely Nola will be pitching 8 years from now. He’s a strikeout pitcher, which means he throws a lot more pitches per game than a pitcher who is a contact or groundball pitcher. Also, it’s doubtful he’ll be able to maintain the speed he currently has on his fastball, which means his effectiveness will probably continue to diminish with time. Harper may still be with the Phils in 8 years but, unless the Phils management learns how to use its players more effectively, Harper may still be waiting for a ring.
Joel,
Nola wouldn’t be the first fireballer to changed tactics as he got older. Look at Kershaw. He doesn’t throw as hard as he used to throw, but he’s still getting good results utilizing the rest of his arsenal.
@ onthebucks
“…which means he throws more pitches per game…”
Let me explain this new fangled thing called pitch count, and how starting pitchers seem to all be capped at 100 regardless of how hard they throw.
That’s nonsense. Nola is a great bet to have success in the future. As good as any other free agent pitcher except perhaps Yamamoto because he’s so young.
Bingo!
100% agree.
I think one of the reasons Philly lost was because Thompson didn’t read the games properly.
Bad running base, insisting on Kerkering and Kimbrel in game 4, especially with Kimbrel having thrown 40 pitches in the last 3 games.
And insisting in the same lineup.
Alec Bohm although he delivered in game 7, was horrible all postseason long, we can’t have him batting 4th.
Johan Rojas is a great fielder but he was 1 out given to the rival in every AB
stymee, Let me explain this thing called arm fatigue which usually adversely affects strikeout pitchers more than it does contact pitchers. More than just a few contact pitchers, especially knuckleball pitchers, have pitched into their 40s. The same can’t be said for as many fireballers. Pitch counts are meaningless if a pitcher is overworking his arm at any time during a game. Haven’t you ever seen a pitcher straining his arm in the first or second inning of a game and being taken out? A pitcher doesn’t have to throw 100 pitches to hurt his arm. He can do it warming up in the bullpen before a game even starts. Anytime you hear about a new prospect who throws 100 mph, start being concerned about his need for Tommy John surgery at some early stage of his career. By the way, strikeout pitchers usually throw more pitches than contact pitchers because it takes at least 3 pitches to record a strikeout – sometimes 7 or more. Contact pitchers who throw strikes can usually get a batter out with fewer pitches.
I think they have a great young crop of pitching talent in the minors. Marsh, Stott, Bohm and Rojas are also all pretty young. But the big bats are all older for sure.
Dombrowski led teams aren’t built to last. But if you get a ring before the decline hits then so what?
This is the common opinion on Dombrowski, but I’ve been impressed with what he built without giving up any of the core young players that fill positions of need. He still may trade away some of those pieces during his tenure, but so far, he’s managed to hold on to all the key prospects. O’Hoppe was a big one, but he traded him for a young OF, so I was cool with it.
Well so far he has just spent and spent and spent. But ownership isn’t going to allow him to keep doing that. No owners allow payroll to keep increasing the way the Phillies payroll has.
Eh. I think we’ve seen a continuous increase in payroll for a number of teams. Phillies are a big market team that was in one of the biggest playoff droughts in all of sports. They went to the WS in 2022 and the NLCS in 2023. They’ve made a ton of money with this recent success. I agree that I don’t think this is sustainable longterm, but for now, the Phillies aren’t going to take their foot off the gas.
The Phillies have increased payroll by 100 million dollars from 2019 to 2023. That’s not normal and it’s not sustainable. Simply maintaining the payroll what it is will be difficult but as you said recent success helps.
Like I said get a ring it won’t matter. But next year Wheeler is up for free agency. The window won’t be open forever.
Joel, As long as the Phils keep winning enough games to make the playoffs each season, entertaining their fans, and filling seats at Citizens Bank Park, ownership will continue to spend money. Not all the money ownership spends will be smart money, and the Harper era may come and go without a championship. People will spend a lot of money to be entertained and, championship or no championship, the Phils’ ownership has found a way to make Citizens Bank Park electric and coax fans to become part of the Phillies and CBP experience. Fans stop going to the ball park when their home team is no longer competitive. All the Phils’ ownership has to do is field a competitive team each season, keep the Phanatic around, and make sure the food is hot and beer is cold, and the organization will continue to make vulgar amounts of money. What the organization has to do to actually win a championship and make the dreams of their fans come true is an entirely different matter.
They may continue to spend money, but at some point, it won’t be more money. Payroll is not unlimited.
From what I have seen, this version of DD has been handling all of their business, without sacrificing the farm. On the heels of the Klentakian nightmare, they have thoroughly revamped the player development and talent acquisition side, and have been cautious about getting rid of their higher level prospects for short term improvements.
He (with the urging of Middleton) continues to spend, but they have also improved the young talent and certainly developed who was here and who they brought in to a much higher level than before. It is always a tightrope walk when it comes to competing at the highest level and still stocking the farm, but the reality is that the system is much stronger since he arrived, even though they have had to make trades along the way.
I just don’t see the reputation for sacrificing the future playing out here in the same way.
I will repeat. Payroll went up 100 million over the last 4 years. I dont think any team in baseball can say that. It can’t just keep going up up up it doesn’t work like that.
Yeah he hasn’t sold the farm this time he’s just increased payroll by insane amounts. That doesn’t make him a genius.
No need to repeat yourself – heard you the first time. I simply don’t agree with your overall perspective on DD’s tenure. No one is proclaiming him to be a genius, but he has been very good thus far.
It is okay to disagree; being obnoxious about it, however, is not very entertaining.
He hasn’t been very good. He showed up and ownership allowed him to keep increasing payroll by incredible amounts year after year. Basically any team in baseball would get better using that strategy. Signing a speed guy like Turner to an 11 year deal is silly. Schwarber and Castellanos can’t play a lick of defense. Walker is highly overpaid. He’s made a lot of bad moves. Payroll will not continue to increase like it has in the last few years and when that happens what then?
Dombrowski gets far too much credit. He’s not that good. Anyone can spend recklessly like he has.
The ‘so what’ is that he leaves teams with no prospects.
They sign Nola for a 28M AAV and then Wheeler will get a 4/120M 30M AAV and that’s just to stay the same.
The Mets and Padres can say that.
This is the 6th time someone has to explain this in the thread, but DD has yet to trade any key prospects for the Phils. What he did in Boston is not related to what he’s oing in Philly. He has to follow the owner’s desires. Middleton wants to keep his prospects.
Yeah this time he isn’t trading prospects he’s just spending insane amounts of money.
Add 100 million dollars in payroll over 4 years to pretty much any team in baseball and you have a good team.
He is overrated.
That’s what the owner wants. Harper was signed under Klentak’s reign. So the spending has more to do with Middleton than DD.
Harper was a good signing. Too many years but he’s paid less per year than many players so it made sense.
Dombrowskis signings have been irresponsible.
The payroll increase is also drastic because they’re coming off a rebuild in which they were spending very little. Generally speaking, the Phillies should be spending like a big market team. Not as high as they’re currently spending, but certainly higher than the rebuild years.
Outside of Nicky C and Walker, I don’t really see any irresponsible signings. But that’s two. So fair point.
140 million isn’t spending very little that’s about average for 2019.
240 million is a lot and it’s not sustainable at all.
The Phillies are slightly above average when it comes to markets but they aren’t a big market team. They are simply acting like one right now.
Giving 11 years to Turner is irresponsible. And Schwarber is literally the worst defensive player in all of baseball.
Spending money like a fool is fun for the fans. But it’s not a good strategy to build a team.
I don’t mind the Turner signing at all. Similar to the Harper deal in the sense thar you’re adding years to lower the AAV. Schwarber is an interesting case. He’s a DH, but he consistently puts up solid numbers. He’s also a massive clubhouse presence. I can’t call it a good signing, but I’m not willing to call it irresponsible. He’s a very strange player.
Harper is a generational talent. Turner is a speed guy who is signed until he’s 39 or 40 whatever it is. I dont like that Turner deal at all.
Yes Schwarber can hit. If Schwarber was the only DH type on the team fine but to sign him and Castellanos at the same time was dumb. And Hoskins was a DH type too.
The Phillies are having succes right now because of massive jumps in payroll and good fortune in the postseason. That’s not a recipe for long term success.
On the heels of the Klentakian nightmare
==================
All the key pieces are from Klentak. The Phillies best four players are Harper, Wheeler, Realmuto & Stott.
In the playoffs, the rotation was entirely Klentak with Wheeler, Nola, and Suarez going 7-2 with a 2.00 ERA.
You can credit DD all you want, but a huge chunk of this team belongs to Klentak.
Remarkably, the Phillies have been rather solid when it comes to their large free agent deals. As noted elsewhere, this is a Middleton era thing, and not just a DD thing. Just as DD was told to spend by ownership in Detroit and Boston…the big $$ are almost always ownership-driven, or at least with the full partnership of ownership.
Bryce has been a simply terrific deal and that was almost purely Middleton, as Klentak was pushed aside for that one and he preferred Machado according to most sources. Wheeler has been awesome as well. Nola was a terrific extension. JTR has been a very good deal, even as we see the slowdown starting. Turner did not have the greatest start, but was a very justifiable move that will be, at minimum, a positive for a number of years and possible much better if he simply becomes who he was before. Schwarbs has worked thus far, even if he is not my preferred type of player.
Casty is too expensive for sure, but still useful and not a disaster as so many FA signings can be. Taj the same – didn’t like the deal at all and it looks as if he will be a 4th / 5th starter for too much money and term. But still useful and not a black hole of a deal. He pitches tough, even if the stuff is not what it should be.
Overall, the FA track record is quite a bit above average in the past 5 years. No one expects to hit on them all and no team does. But we should be quite happy with most of our bigger deals as compared to the spectrum of big market signings in that time frame.
Retain Klentak, and this current team is ready for a rebuild.
It is the Time in Place Effect. Even a disastrously bad president will do a few good things if he / she is around for a while (hence, even a Trump managed a few positives during the term, while being an entirely incompetent and ethically / morally challenged person).
Klentak is hardly analogous, as he is bright and will probably do better the next time around. But his legacy is that he took a long rebuild with lots of high picks and plenty of time to revamp the player development process and drafting in a very positive way – and he managed to send the farm backwards while taking the development approach downhill. He was entirely too focused on revamping via metrics without the wisdom to apply them in a realistic way.
He is more similar to Hinkie – we can say that he developed the Sixers core, but frankly anyone that takes that long and has so many draft picks will inevitable hit on a couple by sheer luck. Klentak’s overall result was a net negative, even if a few deals remain from his tenure that are positives.
The entire bullpen is DD. Amd the pen was literally the worst in baseball during the Klentak era. Historically bad.
stymee, When will that point where the Phils stop spending more money occur? They won’t stop as long as the current owners are still writing checks or a championship is still potentially attainable. If the Phils don’t win a championship in the next few years, when the likes of Schwarber, Castellanos, Realmuto, and Wheeler are no longer under contract, they’ll start to rebuild their team which will probably put an abrupt stop to their exorbitant spending, unless they replace expensive contract with equally or more expensive contracts. Don’t forget – Harper promised the Phils a championship and ownership gives Harper whatever he wants. So, high-priced players may be on the Phillies roster for as long as Harper is still a Phillie.
That’s incredibly optimistic. Comes off as entitled.
The Phillies payroll has went from 140 million to 240 million over the last 4 years. You think it’s gonna be 340 million 4 years from now? It’s not.
Joel, I’ve been a Phillies fan from the days of Connie Mack Stadium. I’ve lived through entire eras when Phillies fans were content to watch their teams battle with the Cubs to see who would finish the season out of the cellar. In fact, I was at Connie Mack Stadium, watching the Phils lose a double header to the Cubs, on the day we landed on the moon. I’ve lived through many mediocre seasons and relatively few where the Phils had any chance to win a championship. So, yes, I’m optimistic, but I’ve been around baseball too long not to be realistic. In 2024, the Phils can win a championship, and they don’t need Nola to do it. I don’t think they need Schwarber either, but they may need Castellanos, another top shelf starter, and a lights-out closer. To win, Thomson also has to change many of his ways. He seems like a good enough guy, but he doesn’t know how to get the most out his team. The Phils scored a lot of runs in 2023, but they could have scored even more if they took greater advantage of the tremendous amount of speed they have on the team. They could have also given up a lot fewer runs with better use of the pitching staff.
Schwarber hit 91 HRs last 2 seasons with a great OBP.
Hardly a bust.
That is my only fear in signing Nola to a 6 year deal for 150/180M. They have about a 3 year window right now (JT, Castellanos ,& Schwarber each have 2-3 years left on their deals, and probably won’t be close to the player they are now after that point ,Harper and Turner will age well, and I would not be surprised if Trea moves to 2B or CF with Stott or ??? Moving to SS at some point, but Turner’s bat and speed will play for about 5 more seasons, and Harper will have his talents for at least that long. But Wheeler is a FA after this season, and Ranger, Taijuan, and Sanchez don’t strike me as the “heir apparent ace” if Wheeler leaves via FA or god forbid in injured for any significant time this year. With Nola, you know what you have. He’s a true #1 starter, and an ace on probably 20 teams, and he has been the most durable SP in the league since 2017/2018. I really want Nola to be back, but would like to see them sign Yoshi Yamamoto , who’s just 25 year old and has dominated Japan for winning the past 3 pitching triple crowns and their version of the CY Young as well.He was 17-6, with 176 Ks in 170 IP this year,and his best game was a 14 strikeout performance in game 6 of the World Series.. It would be nice to deal Castellanos,20/3r, 3 years left Taijuan 3/55m left and maybe Gregory Soto a few years left, but making close to 10m/.to create some financial flexibility to do so-if we need the $. That way you’d have Wheeler, Nola, Ranger, Yamamoto, Sanchez (Possibly Abel /Mxgarry for the upcoming year, and if Wheeler leaves via FA, they still have those guys, plus Andrew Painter for 2025, I’m done rambling – Go Phils!
Good gosh man. You aren’t getting Yamamoto. You sound like a rich kid at Christmas.
Buster Olney will be proven wrong. Stephen Vogt wants a deal made to bring him to Cleveland and Guardian management will accommodate .
You’re making a habit of horrible predictions.
OIC, The Guardians may be able to work out a deal for Schwarber, but not for Castellanos. Olney’s on top of this one. People are just dropping Vogt’s name because they know who he is and the players he wants to trade from the Guardians.
I think Nola stays in Philly. I also think Castellanos could still be traded. Even if they eat half the remaining money, it might be their best chance to get out of any part of that contract. Dombrowski has nothing to prove. He can admit to a big money mistake and feel safe in his job.
Don, Nola is gone, and he’s not coming back. If the Phils really wanted him back, they would have found a way to extend him last season before he became a free agent. Nola’s looking for somewhere in the neighborhood of $300 million for 7 to 8 years. The Phils usually make it a policy not to sign a pitcher beyond 4 years, and they might have gone $200 million for 4 years, but no more. In too many 2023 games, Nola looked like Jekyll and Hyde. He appeared unhittable for 4 innings and then he turned into a batting practice pitcher. Considering the currently available pitching, the Phils would be smart to pass on Nola and invest their money in a more consistent pitcher who can give them 6 or 7 innings every start. Also, the Phils will not be trading Castellanos this offseason. The Phils are not in financial trouble and they have no reason not to continue paying $20 million a year to an outfielder who hit .272 in 2023 with 29 home runs and 100+ RBIs, especially when he is a serviceable defensive outfielder. He was the only starting outfielder in the NL not to have an error in 2023 and he’s got one of the best outfield arms in the majors. He may lack range, but that could be remedied by moving him to left field. The Phils may trade a starter this offseason, but it won’t be Castellanos.
Kudos to Nick for not making an error in 2023. However, he doesn’t get to a lot of balls other OFs get to easily. In terms of defensive runs saved, Nick is at or near the bottom at anywhere from -17 to -20 depending on whose metric you use.
Forget the .272 BA. His OBP sucked and he strikes out way too much and walks way too little.
I don’t think Nick will be traded. But it won’t be because the Phillies don’t want to trade him, it’ll be because they can’t (As in “can’t” find a taker.)..
Backup, Castellanos doesn’t have great range in the outfield, but at least he is a serviceable outfielder, unlike Schwarber who can’t be trusted at any defensive position, even left field. Both are making comparable money, drove in the same number of runs in 2023, and were the team’s top home run hitters. However, Castellanos batted .272 and Schwarber batted .197 in 2023. What’s more, Schwarber had more at bats and struck out 30 times more than Catsellanos. The Phils need an experienced slugging outfielder more than they need a DH who can’t play any position in the field because they can easily fill the DH position by committee. If the Phils need to trade a player with a big contract to save money, there’s much more reason to trade Schwarber than there is Castellanos.
Nola has about. 50/50 chance to come back. He wants 7/ years and 200M, Phillies were willing to go 5 years
at 125/150M, the problem is STL is in dire need of ab Ace, and have freed up alot of $ by trading Jordan Montgomery, Bader and had Moline retire last year, and Wainwright after this season. The Dodgers also need the SP help,Lance Lynn is FA, Urias is likely to be suspended for next year, and Kershaw is a FA who, at best will be able to pitch in July. There is also the Mets, Red Sox, and a few other teams who will be targeting SPs, and none have been more reliable than Nola for the past 5 seasons.
You shouldn’t judge an outfielders defense based on errors.
You mean like the price contract in boston.?
Man, Aaron Nola’s numbers have become pretty awful for a guy who gets talked about like he’s lining himself up for a minimum of 5 years/$125M.
I think he should be valued at more like 4 years/$70M w/ a $1M buyout on a $20M option.
I get that pitching is at a premium and contracts tend to be longer than ever, veering into NHL lengths, but Nola seems so overrated for his actual stats and results on the mound. I do not get it.
I don’t think Nola’s market will be particularly robust. But hey, if the Phillies want to give him like 5-8 years at $25M+ AAV, they’re free to do that.
What Nola does as well as any SP in baseball is take the ball each time it’s his turn to pitch. Durability and showing up are two very important factors when judging a SP, and Nola checks both those boxes.
Doubt me? Just look at what happened to the SP on the Padres, Dodgers, Yankees and Mets last year.
As fans, we shouldn’t fret about what a player makes because we ain’t the ones paying the cheese. I’m sure if Cigar Guy (Middleton) wants Nola back, and I believe he does, he’ll pay the going rate in both money and years.
Backup, What Nola does as well as any pitcher in baseball is take the ball each time it’s his turn and give the Phils the best 4 innings he has in him. After that, no one can tell what he’s going to do. If Middleton wanted Nola back, the Phils would have extended him last season. Nola is no longer a part of the Phillies long-term plans. He’s gone, and that’s by design. The Phils will acquire another suitable starting pitcher before Nola’s locker has a chance to get cold.
I think Dombrowski is more concerned with the years (Nolas agent was asking for 8), and the Philies were only willing to go 5, maybe they can make him a 2 year, 80M offer that he’d account?
I assume Nola wants 8 years/$200M and they’re offering him 5 years/$125M?
I guess 6 years/$170M guaranteed and up to 7 years/$195M could do it?- $165M in annual salaries w/ a $5M buyout on a $30M option could work?
Again, if I was Hoyer, I’d offer Smyly and Bote for Castellanos. Then I would offer Yamamoto and Bellinger 10/250. Bellinger with an opt out after 2 or 3 years, Yamamoto an opt out after 4 or 5 years.
The Cubs are close to 75 million under the luxury tax, this would give them 20 million, sign a good reliever or two and watch the rest of the league fight it out for Ohtani.
Maybe if CHC is taking all of Nick’s contract.
That’s it. Smyly and Bote taken off our books in exchange for Castellanos.
It would work out quite well for both teams. It allows the Cubs to add only around 6 million for this season while the Phillies, if they chose, could turn around and deal away Smyly, eating Amaya half of what is owed to him to offset the money even further in Phillies favor.
Dombrowski will be long gone before those horrible contracts expire
Yes he will. That’s how these guys operate. They show up when the team is ready to spend money make irresponsible decisions fans celebrate them for it and when it’s time to pay the piper they up and vanish.
This is incorrect. These guys operate based on the owner’s instructions. Some owners say win now at all cost. Some owners say we can spend stupid money, but please keep the farm intact. The owners have a huge say in how much the teams spend. DD has managed to make the Phillies successful following Middleton’s guidelines. Yes. The Phillies are fortunate to have a huge budget, but teams like the Mets and Padres failed with higher payrolls. To me, DD’s biggest achievement with the Phillies was building a capable bullpen. He inherited the worst pen in baseball and turned it into a strength. I’d also add that some of these mega contracts came before DD’s tenure (Harper for example). So sure. It’s easy to dismiss success when teams spend money, but I still think DD has done a solid job so far.
Dombrowski only took the job because ownership said he could spend like a drunken sailor. That’s how he operates he shows up spends tons of money and or trades tons of prospects and when it’s time to pay the price he disappears.
The Mets and Padres haven’t had huge budgets for as long as the Phillies. And without some good playoff performance by the Phillies this whole strategy would look far worse than it does now.
This isn’t a sustainable plan. It’s fun for now but buying championships rarely works out.
Texas literally just bought a championship. Big market teams should spend. We’ve seen an increase in spending over the last few years, amd for the most part it has translated to playoff success. The DBacks are really the only exception. But yes. Of course you can’t do this forever. However you can do it for the extent of your competitive window which for the Phillies is the next 3-5 years.
Joel, Congratulations on winning this website’s coveted Broken Clock Award. Even a broken clock is right twice a day and, throughout this entire thread, you have yet to be right about anything as much as a broken clock.
You feel good about what you said fella?
Castellanos is way more valuable than the media proclaims due to market conditions and need/desire to trade him. No clue how the media continues to just roll over the reality of that. If he’s traded – Phillies will be pleased w return
If Castellanos was so valuable then why would the Phillies want to trade him?
Joel, The latest reports, including that from the reputable Buster Olney, have the Phillies denying that they ever wanted to trade Castellanos.
This free agent market is going to be interesting to watch with many teams dealing with uncertainty in the media income. The top of the morket probably won’t be affected but I think the middle and bottom of the market will be affected. I also think the market is going to develp much more slowly than usual. Teams are going to be afraid of making the first mistake.
I don’t see Nola as a top of the market pitcher. He’s been roughly average over his last 96 starts over 3 years. There are at least 5 pitchers on the market who have been better over that period.
The Phillies have to eat salary or attach a prospect for Castellanos? Yet, MLBTR has Teo Hernandez projected for 4/80 coming off the same season at the same age. Castellanos has 3/60 left.
One doesn’t make sense. Why would anyone be willing to give Teo that much & not consider Castellanos?
So, with all this talk about Nola, I’d like to remind so that there are very few quality pitchers in mlb. Most teams have just one but they call an ace. Very few have two. That’s why a guy like Nola will get paid. He’s still a #2 or a #1 on most teams even with his down year.
You just can’t win without pitching.
I’ll start early this year. This team needs arms arms and then e arms. I say the same thing each of season.
Unless the Phillies can get Juan Soto, I’m good with Nick.
I know I’ve been a broken record for years. This team needs arms arms and more arms. I would try and sign Nola. Failing that I’d try my best to sign the Japanese pitcher.
Just get a dozen arms. After that, more arms.
So I’d prefer that sign Nola and Hader and also that young Japanese pitcher. After that, they can sign more arms. PITCHING WINS!