Even after officially reuniting with Aaron Nola on a seven-year, $172MM deal earlier today, the Phillies are still in the hunt for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. A source tells Coffey that the Phils will be “pretty aggressive” in going after the Japanese right-hander, “but if they don’t settle on the right price, they won’t push for a deal.”
The Athletic’s Matt Gelb concurs, hearing that the Phillies “will not be a top bidder on Yamamoto after finalizing the Nola deal.” Given how Yamamoto has gotten so much interest from multiple clubs and how MLBTR projects a nine-year, $225MM price tag for the righty’s first Major League contract, having any financial limits in place might alone halt Philadelphia’s chances. Gelb is also pessimistic about the Phillies’ chances due to the team’s relative lack of a history with Japanese players — in particular, no Japanese pitcher has ever appeared on Philadelphia’s MLB roster.
That said, the special circumstances of Yamamoto’s arrival in North American baseball has kept the Phillies interested on some level, and it could be that the club ultimately decides to make the splash on a special talent. Yamamoto is only 25 years old, and thus could be a rotation fixture for the better part of a decade if he pitches anything like he has over seven dominant seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball. Given how owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski haven’t shown much compunction about spending to upgrade the Phillies’ roster, Philadelphia probably can’t truly be ruled out until Yamamoto has officially put pen to paper with another team.
Yamamoto is already an exception to the rest of the Phillies’ pitching plans for the offseason. Coffey writes that the team is still aiming to add at least one more rotation-caliber piece, and potentially two in the form of Yamamoto and a swingman or spot starter type that could be optioned back and forth from Triple-A. Dylan Covey and Matt Strahm are already on the roster in such roles, though Covey is out of minor league options.
This runs somewhat counter to Dombrowski’s statement earlier this week that the Phillies were only looking for one more starter, though Coffey’s framing of the other potential additions as depth pieces wouldn’t detract from the projected starting five of Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez. If Yamamoto signs elsewhere, the Phillies will probably target only depth starters or multi-inning relievers going forward, as Coffey says “it’s unlikely” the team would pivot to another top-tier hurler.
In term of larger pitching expenditures, the Phillies might be saving some money for Wheeler, as Gelb writes that the team plans to discuss an extension at some point this offseason, if possibly closer to Spring Training. 2024 is the final season of the five-year, $118MM pact Wheeler signed during the 2019-20 offseason, and though Wheeler turns 34 in May, it’s easy to see why the Phillies are interested in a longer relationship. The righty has been excellent over his four years in Philadelphia, posting a 3.06 ERA over 629 1/3 innings and twice meriting top-six finishes in NL Cy Young voting.
Of course they are.
That;s exactly what I was going to say. Sometimes it kind of sucks to be fan of teams that have smaller budgets. I mean, typically, we just can’t reach the finish line.
nail – Realistically, every MLB team can afford to hand out at least one $200M contract. After all, the Rays handed out $182M to Wander Franco and were still in on other big ticket players.
The thing fans need to question, if their team used to be big spenders years ago …. what happened to change that? Typically it’s greedy owners who want that revenue sharing without having to spend it.
There’s just no other reason why once-great baseball cities like Cincy, Pittsburgh and KC aren’t spending more. Their attendance would increase substantially if they simply put a competitive product on the field.
What changed is the massive local TV deals large markets get over everyone else that they used to explode salaries to the point that only they could afford the top players.
The disparity was not that great at one time. Now it is and Robby the robot follows his masters bidding and is ok with that.
There’s just no other reason why once-great baseball cities like Cincy, Pittsburgh and KC aren’t spending more.
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It’s not that straightforward. I’ve advocated for Seattle signing Ohtani because they might add 500,000 tickets in the first year. But no one in KC will go to see them win 62 instead of 56.
For other teams, you are very unlikely to be consistently good, so you have to strike at the right time. Cincy definitely, and maybe PT, maybe not, would do well to add someone like Yamamoto. Between increased regular season attendance and a decent post-season chance, that would likely pay for itself.
But for the Nats, CO, the WS, etc., it would be a waste.
Seems highly unlikely.
“…but if they don’t settle on the right price, they won’t push for a deal.”
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That comment is why the Phillies won’t land Yamamoto.
Exactly. Phillies have nothing to offer except a real chance to win now. Other teams can make the same claim while offering more money. I’d love if it happened, but it doesn’t seem plausible.
It doesnt. The article is clickbait. It even says its unlikely they meet his price.
I hope he signs soon. Lets see where he lands. Im not a homer mets fan. They dont have the winning pedigree for this guy to be enticed to play for them. They have money but look at Nola choosing less to stay with the phillies. Mets fans think its all about money
If Yamamoto gets a 12 year deal I hope none of the teams I root for sign him. He’s already got at least five full seasons on his arm. Unless he’s the second coming of Nolan Ryan any team that signs him will more than likely regret it sooner than later.
Where are you getting 12 years? It’s more likely an 8 or 9 years deal with at least one player opt-out by 30 y.o.
Article used to have 12 years before edited to 9.
That is still too long for an unproven pitcher. Whether he played in Japan is irrelevant, he is unproven in major league baseball.
The Phillies have very little scouting presence in Japan or anywhere in Asia for that matter. While they might have interest in Yamamoto. in FA it has to be reciprocal and for player from the NPB and KBO that means existing relationships with the teams trying to sign them.
For that reason I highly doubt that the Phillies sign Yamamoto. I also doubt that the Mets do either because the guy that had the relationship, Billy Eppler, is no longer with the team.
They don’t need eppler to sign him they just need money and the will really — senga is actively attempting to recruit him, which goes further than eppler ever could
If you think all that is needed is money, you do not understand the culture.
Does Dombrowski even have a scouting dept? I figured he just looks at whoever hit the bombs or Kd the most dudes the previous year and goes from there
That isn’t accurate. the scouting presence isn’t the issue – they just focus on amateur players. Guys like Lee and Pan are their focus.
You all predicted 9 years for Yamamoto.
3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Nine years, $225MM
Tim: Giants / Anthony: Yankees / Darragh: Yankees
I could see San Diego going 16 years $345,000,000.
I can see Mets giving him 3 years 150m when he is a 40 year old free agent.
This made me chuckle, but I still think the Mets have to be a favorite to land him.
You saying the mets might be willing to go 19/450?
LOL! SD & the NYM could both be on the same contract. SD pays him 30M/year until he is 39, then trade him to the NYMs for -0-, and the Mets add on $150M/3. $540M/16.
Sub – Have you not been following the news? Things have changed for SD.
We won’t let our competition get him without bidding him up but we expect multiple teams to be willing to pay him more than we think he is worth.
If any team gives YY the nine years and $225M guaranteed, it is going to get burned. He’s a small right-gander who has thrown a lot of pitches the last three years, all under the age of 25. Give him an opt out after two years and hope his arm holds out for two years.
What pitcher would even get offered 9 years has a pitcher ever signed that long of a deal?
Gerrit Cole signed a 9 year / $324,000,000 contract with the New York Yankees, including $324,000,000 guaranteed,
Ok I remember that one now but it’s still hard to imagine any pitcher getting a deal for that long
I hear you but he’s 25 is why but its still crazy
It’ll be a 10 year contract when the Yankees exercises their ’29 option on Cole so he can’t opt-out after next season.
Butt – A 30 year old pitcher just signed a 7-year deal, how is a 9-year deal for a 25 year old pitcher any more riskier?
BTW – Garland received a 10-year contract.
Because that 25 year old has never thrown a pitch in the MLB, while the 30 year old has pitched in the playoffs.
Kent Maeda just finished an 8-year contract.
Never been a starting pitcher that was a FA coming into his age 25 season.
Outfield, Tanaka was 25, in fact about two or three months younger than Yamamoto. Tanaka received a 7/155 a decade back, for a $22.1 AAV. Tanaka pitched seven years, returned to pitch in Japan again the last seasons and was still only 34 in 2023.
Tanaka was a very good pitcher in the States, but MLB never really had peak Tanaka for long as he injured his elbow a couple months in and was never quite the same. Yamamoto is considered even better than Tanaka, so a decade on I can see Yamamoto securing a deal north of $250MM.
Tanaka was also legitimately MLB large. Maybe 6’3″ and 210? YY is half that size.
What is needed is an analysis of pitchers ~ 5’10” and 180, to see how long they last. That’s Guidry territory, and I’d sign him for $225M/9 tomorrow, and fly him here on my private jet, but YY also has about 1,000 IPs on his arm already.
Forgot about Tanaka. Thanks for pointing him out. He had an ERA nearly a point higher in the NPB and its been a decade since he came to the states. So I think you are right about what it will take to sign Yamamoto.
I think most teams would be happy if Yamamoto pitched to a 3.74 ERA in the majors over a decade long contract. Especially if his peak years are even better. .
Pedro Martinez. Whitey Ford. Sonny Gray. Marcus Stroman.
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Good point
Less of a point. More of a dot.
It hit reply to you and it put it down here. This often happens. Don’t know how to delete so I edit it to a . Mlbtr can delete any of my . post anytime.
Or it could mean I have spoken, that’s the final word. PERIOD!!!!!
It done it again!!!!
If you hit edit, you should see a button to delete it.
Thanks BB. Will hopefully remember to do that moving forward. I usually work fast and multi tasking but I can’t believe I didn’t noticed it.
I put him as going to the A’s. Fischer won’t be a Grinch this Christmas. A’s will get yet another movie about them.
. It done it again
Are you hitting “Post Comment”? If the link is too close to the bottom, you can click on it, but it might not be live.
Philly is dumb for signing nola. He’s a decent to good pitcher. Now he got his money he will pitch in the 4.3 era. He’s a number 3 pitcher
RE: TakerDBacks
“Philly is dumb for signing nola. He’s a decent to good pitcher. Now he got his money he will pitch in the 4.3 era. He’s a number 3 pitcher”
Obviously the Phillies should be smart like the the writer of this comment so clearly is
Everything about this comment just exudes intelligence and baseball knowledge.
It is quite impressive
Nola has a career ERA of 3.72. I guess he struggles a bit in the first few weeks of the season. Cold weather or until he gets his mechanics sorted out. But a top pitcher after those first few weeks. I like the signing. If the Phillies didn’t give him 7 years someone else would have.
Braves need to do something already the Phillies gonna win the division outright at this pace…..
Wait a minute then they will have a week off without playing games to start the playoffs.
Oh AA you cheeky monkey
More than 2 days off at any point during postseason is NO BUENO!!!
Feels strongly like a “don’t expect Yamamoto Phillies fans” leak
I want a green check by my name. ✅ Daryl
Mets will land him. Cohen will open his wallet for him.
1 year 80mil with opt out @ all star break?
Ain’t that the deal Jimbo Fisher got from Texas A&M lol
A+ reply BravesBH!!
We need a lock down closer
Robert Stephenson may be a reasonable target for them. Josh Hader is getting all the attention this off-season, but Stephenson was quietly arguably more dominant than Hader last year after joining the Rays and tweaking his repertoire. He could end up as the biggest steal of the off-season, as he’ll likely end up costing about 1/3 of what Hader projects to get.
Stephenson also has control issues at times. Not what you want in a closer.
Sometimes you have to look beyond stats at the player.
IMHO, I think you can in Stephenson’s case. He is almost 31, has 3 career saves, and a career 4.64. He had 7 good weeks to his name. Perhaps he can keep it up, but there is a -0- chance I would risk my season with him as a closer.
Honestly after signing Nola, I would go with a trade for Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease or Shane Bieber.
And bet strongly on Josh Hader, that’s what the team needs the most in terms of arms and then maybe try to add another arm to the pen.
Their rotation seems set. Wheeler, Nola, Suarez, Walker, Sanchez with some depth options in the minors. I think the focus will be on relief. Yamamoto has a high ceiling, so Phillies are in on him because he’s a special talent, but their chances seem slim to me.
Yeah it’s true the rotation looks set; but I would discard going for another starter, especially if you can get one of those names I mentioned, as for the pen I would go for sure on Hader and Phill Maton
From what I can find online for his groundball rate, GB% of 47.5% and kwERA of approximately 2.930, the calculated GBkwERA is approximately 3.99.
That seems like a decent expected ERA for him. Add him on a team with above average defense and his ERA drops but not the GBkwERA. He’d be a good fit for Texas and Arizona who were #2 and3 for defense in 2023.
No Wheeler then………after next year
Yamamoto to the Phils would make them a Death Star. I wish the M’s had an ownership group willing to go hard for a championship like this.