One of the offseason’s top free agents is staying put, as the Phillies announced that Aaron Nola has been re-signed to a seven-year deal. Nola will earn $172MM over the course of the contract, which contains no opt-out clauses or club options. Nola is represented by Paragon Sports.
Nola, 30, was selected seventh overall by the Phillies in the 2014 draft. The right-hander was a quick riser to the big leagues, making his MLB debut shortly after the All-Star break in 2015 at the age of 22. His rookie season saw him post a respectable 3.59 ERA (107 ERA+) and 4.04 FIP across 13 starts in the majors. It was a preview of the reliable, back-of-the-rotation production Nola would provide the Phillies with throughout his early twenties: he posted a 3.94 ERA (106 ERA+) across the first three seasons of his big league career, though a 3.38 FIP in that time suggested there was more potential yet to come for the young righty.
That potential was unleashed during the 2018 season. Nola posted a sterling 2.37 ERA while racking up 224 strikeouts across 212 1/3 innings of work. The performance not only earned Nola his first career All-Star appearance and a third-place finish in NL Cy Young award voting that year, but the Phillies also inked him to a new contract. The two sides agreed to a four-year extension with a club option for the 2023 season shortly before Opening Day 2019.
While Nola never quite replicated that incredible 2018 campaign over the life of his extension, he’s remained one of the most durable starters in the league over the past half-decade. Since the start of the 2018 season, only Gerrit Cole has thrown more innings than Nola’s 1065 1/3 figure. While Nola’s ERA of 3.65 is dragged down by difficult 2021 and 2023 seasons that saw him post results closer to that of a league-average starter than an ace, his 3.38 FIP over the past six seasons is a top-ten figure among arms with at least 700 innings of work across that timeframe. That leaves him with a whopping 25.5 fWAR accumulated over the past six seasons, an excellent figure topped only by Cole, Nola’s co-ace in the Phillies rotation Zack Wheeler, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom.
Impressive as those numbers are, Nola’s new deal with the Phillies is a hefty one for a pitcher coming off a 4.46 ERA (96 ERA+) platform season. Though Nola’s struggles in 2023 could fairly be attributed, at least in part, to a deflated 66.4% strand rate and an elevated 15.6% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs, he’ll continue to call the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park home while pitching in front of a Phillies defense that ranked below average by measure of Outs Above Average last season and bottom-five per Defensive Runs Saved. While a full-time shift to DH for Kyle Schwarber and additional reps for Bryce Harper at his new position of first base should help the Phillies out in the field next season, the defensive holes created by Nick Castellanos in right field and Trea Turner at shortstop seem unlikely to be plugged any time soon.
Previous reporting indicated the Phillies were hesitant to give Nola a seven-year contract, but Philadelphia continued a trend that became more common — stretching deals for top free agents in terms of years to lower the contract’s AAV. It’s a tactic used with several positional free agents last offseason, including Turner’s own 11-year pact with the Phillies. While the deal between Nola and the Phillies will keep the right-hander on the payroll through the 2030 season, the club will pay Nola just $24.57MM yearly for luxury tax purposes.
That AAV comes in far below not only that of previous top-tier free agent starters like David Price ($31MM AAV), but also more recent arms like Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon ($27MM AAV). Nola’s annual figure is much more closely in line with that of previous free agent arms like Wheeler, Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin, none of whom entered free agency with a track record of success comparable to Nola’s. The lowered AAV could help the Phillies if they look to avoid surpassing higher levels of the luxury tax. In 2024, Roster Resource projects the club for a payroll just over $252MM for luxury tax purposes, putting them around $5MM below the second luxury tax threshold of $257MM. Of course, staying under that figure would require the Phillies to either trim payroll elsewhere on the roster or make virtually no additional moves this offseason, though Nola’s lower AAV could still come into play for luxury tax purposes in future seasons.
Nola clocked in at number five on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, where we projected the righty for a six-year, $150MM contract. While that projection ended up one year and $22MM light, it seems that Nola could have surpassed the deal he took with the Phillies had he decided to sign elsewhere as the New York Post’s Heyman reports that Nola took a lesser deal to remain in Philadelphia. It’s unclear which team or teams topped Philly’s offer, but ESPN’s Jeff Passan notes that the Braves were considered a “real threat” to land Nola while Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Tom Ackerman of KMOX this morning that he had been engaged with Nola’s agents during his free agency but that Nola had a “really strong desire” to return to the Phillies.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made fairly clear that the Phillies only plan on adding one arm to their rotation this offseason, and with Nola back on board it seems the club’s rotation is set headed into 2024. While it’s certainly feasible that the heavy lifting for the Phillies could already be done for the offseason, there are still holes on the roster the club could look to address. The club could look to add a bat to their left field mix rather than rely on Johan Rojas as an everyday player after a solid 59-game stint in the majors this year, while the club’s late-inning mix could use a right-handed arm to pair with Jose Alvarado after veteran closer Craig Kimbrel departed for free agency.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report that the agreement was in place, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the $172MM figure. Nightengale and Jon Heyman of the New York Post respectively added the details about the no-trade clause and the lack of club options or opt-outs.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Wow
Ridiculous for a SP
FOLLOW THE Guardians model for pitching…. Develop your own
How many championships have the Guardians won in the last 75 years?
They have had good pitching though…
What dumb comment. If success is only measured by championships then 24 teams should just tank every year, why bother trying to win with fans with terrible ignorant opinions like this.
Guardians have only existed for 2 years.
Put the Indians in a real division and they wouldn’t even sniff the playoffs.
Josh – The Guardians have been in existence only 2 years, here’s the BR link to prove it:
baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/
Now where’s the link to the Free Agent Tracker Contest Entries? I got Nola right and want to see where I stand now!
And how many have the Phillies won in their entire existence?
They actually have a better chance now though, seeing as we could just let an Excel spreadsheet pick a name at random and that would be as good a guess as any.
It’s certainly not got anything to do with building a complete team or actual success over 162.
“Guardians have only existed for 2 years.”
Then how can it be said to “follow their model”. Not one pitcher theyve drafted has made the Majors. They dont have a “model” yet, certainly not a successful one.
Ngl, I was really hoping someone would go with that angle. thank you for making my day!
Fever, you’re tied for the lead!
And give the Guardians the money and see what they would do
Cleveland franchise World Series appearances in last 75 years:5
Phillies: 5
Enough said … and Cleveland won’t spend
What an excuse get a new owner who will spend what it takes to win the world series, That goes for all the small market teams. Cleveland spends for football and basketball.
And Cleveland has a cool movie franchise.
Lord – That’s awesome! Kinda like those 50-1 horses that take the lead out of the gate and then cross the finish line last while the winner is already taken a victory trot. Haha!
Von – Cleveland also has the Rock Hall of Fame, Drew Carey, and Hot In Cleveland.
That’s only enough said because you don’t have anything else.
The Phillies play in a real division. The Indians don’t. In order to compete in a real division you have to spend money.
Me too!
“How many championships have the Guardians won in the last 75 years?”
How about asking how many years will it be a slam dunk guarantee that the Phillies will win during the period of 2024 through 2030?
5 World Series appearances same as Phillies
Same as the Phillies 1….and?
Rock and Roll HOF ain’t what it used to be. Letting in rap was just wrong. Nothing against rap but it sure isn’t rock and roll.
Joe says… — I was just there and I have to agree. However, it’s tough to differentiate blues and R&B from rock n roll because those forms are the roots of rock. They same can be said about rap. Now, if The Hall includes opera or classical, that’s another story.
While we’re on the topic of accomplishments…how many years have Philly fans led the league in DUIs?
Wow what is free agents going to get
Pete, IDK I’d say Wagner’s “Ride of the Valkyries” is more rock and roll than some of what’s being let in.
On that note, I’d agree. It’s a HOF with too many questionable inductees, just like the Baseball Hall of Fame which kinda goes the other way by NOT letting in some of the legendary ball players.
Was anyone alive to remember the guardians / Indians last World Series win??
The Phillies have been in 8 World Series
Rock and Roll has been going downhill ever since Buddy Holly died.
The difference is in NFl and NBA there is a salary cap where money is divided. You can’t compare the leagues like that.
I’m a music fanatic and I can’t agree. Rock and Roll was alive until recently, the examples are so extensive that to name even a few would disregard too many others.
And their last win was 75 years ago
Guardians what a stupid name I like Indios better.
I was alive during the almost won era
Because those leagues have weak unions that knuckle under to the owners.
Indians — was a good name and should be restored IMO. Screw the cancel culture woke punks.
That must be new Math, it’s been 8: 1915,1950,1980,1983,1993,2008,2009,2022
Phillies 8
Yeah Josh5890, the Phillies won a championship and as a result I guess an achievement has been unlocked!
“Permission to be stupid and overpay a guy who should be DFA’d!”
With this achievement the Phillies will be able to pay any player any amount of money without receiving criticism for the decision.
Nope Phillies 8 WS appearances, 6 since 1980
Has the logo been blurred from the movie?
This is stupid, how many times have the Angels re-named themselves.
As for your Dodgers, they were known as the Grays, the Bridegrooms, the Superbas, and the Robins before they settled on the name Dodgers in 1932.
Also, moving to Los Angeles from New York is closer to creating a new organization that re-naming a team, so you can eliminate 12 NL Pennants and 1 World Series win from the Los Angeles, because those achievements were completed by the Brooklyn Dodgers, a different team. By the way Roy Campanella was never a Los Angeles Dodgers, so you don’t get to claim his an ex-player. Make stupid statements, win stupid prizes!
Josh5890,
So how many players on your Philly team and how many executives in your organization were even with the team when they won their last World Series in 2008?! I wasn’t even born when they won their first championship in 1980. Trying to flex with your pitiful two World Series, when you are an hour or two away from a Yankees team with 27 Championships is dumb.
What’s even better is watching you try to size up with the more successful franchises in the MLB is like watching a guy with Cialis vs a dude with E.D.,!!
Personally I can’t stand any of you holier-than-thou fans who either bandwagon’d your way into your fandom or were born into it by geography or familial influence.
Either way, you bragging about the Phillies Championships where the most you did to help was buy a few tickets and eat the stadium peanuts is hilarious!
Halo11Fan,
In this hypothetical scenario the Guardians must be playing the Angels, because they are the only AL team that stinks enough to influence Cleveland’s ability to smell anything, let alone make them not sniff the playoffs specifically! Once you get the smell of the Angels stinking like crap, you can’t sniff anything else!
The Guardians as a franchise have been around over 100 years and their last title was when Stalin was still alive. It is relevant by the law of averages they should get one by now. Also, if you just want to go by franchise success overall the Phillies won it all in 2008, went back in 09, and have made the past 2 World Series. Looks like they are doing just fine.
Finally, Nola IS a homegrown pitcher and unlike the Guardians they actually pay their stars. They also have Abel and Painter coming up.
Interesting that the guy from Jersey is insulting a fanbase mostly made up of people from New Jersey.
Ummm…. Phillies didn’t get to the World Series this season…
Before Dodgers it was the Trolley Dodgers —that’s how they got their name. Roy Campanella is my favorite catcher of all time.
Black Ace57,
That is literally the definition of ‘gambler’s fallacy’. The problem with your assertion is that you are wrongly assuming that past outcomes have any correlation on future outcomes. To believe the Guardians organization is “due” is to believe the payroll size, usage, prospect quality, international and free agent signings, as well as division, league, and luck don’t contribute to the results.
This is not Powerball where once a number has been called, it is removed from being called again. The same team could win 100 times in a row as improbably as that may be, but it is far more likely than waiting on a team being due. If you the Mariners are going to win in 2024 simple because it’s their time, you need to call Jerry and Justin to get a job in the Mariners front office.
As a Mariners fan their 54% winning percentage is another form of gambler’s fallacy, and can only works in the AL Central and NL in general. Averaging 87.5 wins a season (54% winning pct.) has not worked in the past, nor will it work in the future to make the playoffs with any regularity, while we are a part of the AL West. There is no consistency to making the playoffs without winning 93-95+ games annually.
So no, the Mariners and the Guardians are not due. There is nothing due any team that won’t financially commit to winning and putting a winning product on the field. Until the Mariners start spending the way they are capable, the other teams in the AL West will be emboldened to keep trying to compete instead of rebuild, as is the case with all teams and in all divisions. The Dodgers and Giants forced the Rockies rebuild with money.
You forgot Bums, Doyers, Gross
Well Freddy Mercury could make the argument for Classical Music and Opera and we have had Rock Operas in the past, so Opera could be argued…
Halo11fan, while we’re on the subject Rock and Roll Hall of famer Wille Nelson is starting a movement to get Waylon Jennings into the rock and roll hall of fame. My opinion is neither belong but if your going to put one in Waylon was at least the bass guitar player for Buddy Holly, and of course had his role in the infamous day the music died.
Not enough said, because your numbers are wrong. The Phillies have been in 7 WS in the last 75 years (1950, 1980, 1983, 1993, 2008, 2009, 2022)
*is like watching a guy with Cialis vs a dude with E.D.,!!*
We might have to just take your word for it there.
Fever – good job. I think I got 8 out of first 10 right last year and stayed on the first screen for a long time. Unfortunately, I only got 1 right the rest of the way so it was short lived. Enjoy the moment my friend and good luck on the other 49.
I think its 7 cause they said last 75 years
Pete – You beat me to it. You are 100% correct about the reason why so many non-rock artists have been nominated. Still, it’s not the Blues and R&B Hall of Fame. Seeing artists like Madonna, Donna Summer, Whitney Houston, Dolly Parton, Kate Bush all get inducted makes me think the Hall is just trying to increase popularity by bringing diversity. I don’t think any of them elicit thoughts of “rock musicians”. Rap artists I can understand a bit more because of their heavy sampling of rock songs. Plus there is no physical Hip Hop HOF, however there are HOF’s for Country, Classical, and Opera.
I used to be a RHOF member and I attended the 2012 induction ceremony. The thing that always annoyed me is when legendary rock bands are constantly bypassed in favor of non-rock musicians.
I mean seriously, Celine Dion in the Rock Hall of Fame but Iron Maiden, Motorhead and Blue Oyster Cult are not? Shameful.
Pete – I’m a rock fan and without question rock music started dying as hip hop gained in popularity.
Look around the concert scene over the past 20 years, it’s basically just bands from the 70’s thru 90’s that are carrying on the rock concerts.
Lenny Kravitz sang “Rock and roll is dead” and that was back in 1995.
Even Kid Rock has switched from rock to country music.
Fever now that you mention the Kid Rock transition is also add that the country music that existed pre90’s is not the same as it has become.
Country music from about 1995 on is very close to the rock and roll that I grew up on in the 70’s and 80’s. Even a lot of those old rockers have said as much / collaborated with “country” stars.
Add in the Grunge movement in the 90’s and I think what I grew up listening to as rock and roll, just got pushed out or blended in with the new country.
A little heavy meta still exists but even that is fading or so it seems.
Rock and roll as it was, ironically is still as it is – the old guys are just still touring. I just saw Foreigner a few months ago and my previous concert to that was 38 Special!
Von – I also find it interesting that there’s some sort of rivalry between the Angels and Phillies?
Quite odd, particularly considering the fanbases couldn’t be any more different.
Long – Thank you, I appreciate it!
I have fun with the contest, that’s the important thing.
Good luck to you as well!
I’m actually a Cubs fan.
Long – I was never much of a country music fan, but I’m guessing Garth and Shania contributed to the transition you mention.
Grunge definitely killed the hair metal bands, that was the beginning of the end for my favorite band GNR.
I’ve seen Foreigner too, great band!
Fever — Exactly. I agree on all except Donna Summer because she crossed over with a few tunes (her cover of “There Goes My Baby, The Drifters tune and a couple of others). But the Celine Dion (!) induction is an embarrassment, as are the others you mentioned.
But as I said in my original post, the Baseball Hall of Fame isn’t much better for the opposite reason: keeping OUT the greatest stars of the game. How in the world can Pete Rose, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemons et al be stiff armed when Ty Cobb and Big Pappi are given a free pass?
For some 39 years I was a member of NARAS, but I finally resigned because Grammys were being handed to mediocre artists from the biggest labels (who had their employees stuff the ballot box) while deserving artists were routinely left out.
and the Christmas Story House.
Fever — But there is still some great rock n roll despite the synthesized drek that routinely comes out. Here are a few: Lake Street Dive, Marty Stewart & His Fabulous Superlatives (country tinged), Jesse Barrish, Luct Dacus, Stevie Winwood (still), Eric Clapton (still), Little Feat (still), Alex Call etc., But I’ll admit there aren’t the smashmouth rockers like AC/DC and Motorhead.
Loved 38 Special.
Pete – now I just really want to know who you are!
Pete – the list pretty much follows my point. You have a country guy in MS crossover and a bunch of old guys carrying on. The genre doesn’t have much by way of new bands / next generation over the last 20 years or so.
I still want to know who you are!
Longtimecoming—Of course you’re right, but heavy metal was never really my thing although I love ZZ Top among a few others. I have a VERY wide musical bandwidth that includes old blues, old country, gospel, jazz, big bands, 50’s pop and R&B, classical on and on. No taste for opera. and not much for current country which is monotonously the same watered-down crap.
I’m also a die-hard Giants fan who also favors the Mets and Tigers. I’m a Buddhist and start with meditation and coffee every morning.
Anything else?
Pete – sounds like someone I’d like to have a beer or wine or coffee with and hear some stories!
I loved .38 Special but then they changed their name to 38 Special. Not as a good.
Where are you located?
And then the beautiful . . .
youtube.com/watch?v=cRkaPdfjzEk
Home of the Bluegrass International Hall of Fame. Owensboro, KY. Ironically, Marty was in town last week performing there! We also have a 3 day Bluegrass festival called ROMP in the summer. I’m not a big Bluegrass fan myself but thought those might interest you.
I’m former Navy so I spent about 10 years in the SD areas back in my younger years so that’s where my Padre allegiance was derived.
Not a huge bluegrass fan but friends with Pete Wernick (“Dr. Banjo” of Hot Rize) although I haven’t seen him in a while.. But I love old country and slightly newer ie The Stanley Bros., and Ricky Scaggs, EmmyLou, Dillards, Nanci Griffiths, Pistol Annies . . .
Former Army.
I’m in Colorado.
Yes. This is news to me. I like the Angels.
Kenneth Powers — I tried to paste in the URL for “Second Chance,” but Tim, apparently, does not allow that.
@Pete Hey remember when Jethro Tull won a Grammy for Best Metal album like in 1986 or so? That was nuts! Ian Anderson and his flute; best metal…nutso! (Love me some Tull though)
You know, I wasn’t heavily into Tull because Anderson’s voice kind of irritated me. Although I liked his collaborations with Vangelis.
you realize that they drafted him right
Fred, apparently he doesn’t. Maybe he’s suggesting that teams never sign their own talent.
Well that is sort of the Guardians model….
Thanks for screwing over the pitching market for everyone Dombroski.
In today’s market, $25 million a year is not an overpay for a top pitcher
I don’t agree that Dombrowski screwed up the market for pitchers. He may have done the other 29 teams a favor by signing Nola to the extension. All pitchers will eventually decline sometime after their 30th birthday. Very few can still perform in the majors in their mid-30s or late 30s. Once Nola starts a rapid decline in performance, at least the Phillies organization and Phillies fans can look back and know that Nola provided a valuable performance for the Phillies. Had one of the other 29 teams signed Nola and the decline started in the early 30s, the fans of that team would be the ones who would feel screwed.. A prime example is what the Diamondbacks organization and their fans witnessed with Madison Bumgarner.
ually, I have to agree with you. That contract though will end up being an albatross in the same vein as Bumgarner’s ( as you alluded to) .
But if post season performance is such a big determoming factor, then Jordan Montbomery should command an even higher contract. He was better in the regular season than Nola and was every bit as stellar in the post season.
This was supposed ro be a scarce class for hitting with plenty of pitching. Buckle up folks.
@GO1962 – That’s fair. Many pitchers do decline after 30. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee were both done by 36. Cole Hamels the same.
You always have to make a decision based on the information at hand. I believe the biggest difference between Nola and MadBum is that the Phillies drafted Nola and they know him well. If you’re going to put that investment on a pitcher, might as well do it for one you know very well rather than relying on medical reports from another team and 1 physical.
25MM for Nola, I believe, is a slight underpay. You lookat the AAV’s for Harper, Turner, and Nola and it really isn’t that bad from an AAV standpoint, allowing Middleton to spend more “stupid money” on other players to try and win a title.
It shows you that players WANT to play in Philly.
Flanster
You say: “$25 million a year is not overpay for a top pitcher”
I agree, the problem is that Aaron Nola is certainly not a top pitcher for seven more years, maybe not even one or two more years.
Fortunately for them, that offense can carry them a lot.
He is a number two starter who is among the best at eating innings. I don’t think that will age well. This is not a horrible deal for Phillies, but nor is it one to celebrate.
An inning eater by definition is a #4 or #5!! Sorry, but if you think Nola is anything better than a glorified #3 at this point in his career, you’re crazy! At his best, he was an okay #2!! He literally had one season at 25 where he was an ace and an All-Star, while being more good than great over his career.
You don’t give $172M to a guy who has been to 1 All-Star game, never won a Cy Young, and only pitched three 200 IP seasons in 7 years (not going to hold his partial rookie season or 2020 (COVID) against him, and I know you’ll say that three of the other seasons were 168, 180.2, and 193.2, but that’s the bar you set for $25M.
Robbie Ray has the same All-Star experience, but has won an ERA title and a Cy Young, but only got $115M/5 years coming off his best performance. It is always a case of what have you done for me lately and with Nola, he shouldn’t have got more than $100M/5 years with an opt out or an option he can trigger based on performance.
The only reason he gets that much is his past performance of eating innings a being a mid-rotation start with great consistency. He’s had two 4.03 FIP season in his prime (age 26 & 30), which means that will happen more, not less as he moves through his 30s. This is going to be one of the generationally bad contracts by the time it’s done.
The Phillies do.
The negotiations are coming out on Nola. Lauber from the Inky – Braves came out of the chute with a 6 / $162M and were negotiating up from there. Dodgers at a 6 / $165M and not done. Another team offered more than the Phils offer and others were in the mix. Nola was willing to take $172M from the Phils to sign, and they Phils requested to make it a 7 year deal for luxury tax purposes.
All that this shows is that a few of the best organizations in the game were willing to pay what the Phils paid. Everyone can argue whether it is a sane contract or not, and how one values Nola moving forward. No big free agent contract will seem cheap – it is simply the way that the system is set up.
Good teams value good pitching, and Nola is valued as a top pitcher. Not an elite ace by any stretch but also certainly not what some of the posters on here postulate either. Some of the commentary has been so dopey with respect to Dombrowski and Nola that I am amazed that they can use a keyboard. But the reality is that Nola was paid market value by the Phils – we can argue “Fair” as a part of market value another day.
GO – The great pitchers tend to continue performing at an elite level into their 40’s, heck Randy Johnson’s best season was at Age 38 and Verlander’s best season was at Age 39 and Clemens’ best was at Age 42!
But then after 40 it’s definitely a risk of them losing it rather quickly.
Woods – You really need to look at the total contract amount when deciding whether a player is an overpay or underpay. Especially these days when teams intentionally give out longer contracts to keep the AAV down.
$172M for Nola is anything but an underpay, it’s basically $34M annually for 5 years. That’s what you’d expect for the 5th-best free agent (3rd-best pitcher) on the market.
Fever Pitch – But the contract is not 5 years, it’s 7 you have to call it what it is, not what it isn’t and that’s how it hits against the LT threshold. Phillies could’ve given Nola 34/5, but then how does that hamstring them in making other moves. Not only that, but This will be Philly’s 3rd season over the LT. The penalties go up (I can’t remember the percentage offhand).
I guess it’s the whole AAV vs contract length debate.
Personally, for me, I’m not happy about the lemngth of the contract. I believe they will get 3 or 4 good years out of it, but the problem is the market. When you consider the market, it’s not an overpay.
@Fever Pitch Guy: The guys who pitch well into their 40s are few and far between, and at least some (Clemens) were so juiced up it wasn’t funny and they won’t be in the Hall of Fame.
@The Natural: What an amazingly dumb comment. It’s not your money anyway.
Nola has spent his whole career with the Phillies, they did develop him.
@OIC2021: What’s it to you? It’s not your money.
The problem is how much does that make Blake Snell worth?! How do you tell the NL Cy Young, and one of only 7 pitchers to ever win a Cy Young in both leagues, he’s not worth more than $100-120M over 5 years, when Aaron Nola just got $172M/7years?! Now, if I’m the agent for Snell, I’m telling my guy, you should be asking $240M/8 years. This of course will never happen and it will stall the whole free agent class until someone blinks and Snell gets $175M/7 years, so he’s not taking less than Nola. Meanwhile, you have a ton of other pitchers trying to find their place in the hierarchy of pay scale like a bunch of hermit crabs ready to trade shells.
Snell gets 220 – whatever the years may be to make it work don’t really matter.
@Thank_God: Why is that a problem? What’s wrong with each guy getting his maximum value at the time he signs?
If Snell gets more than Nola, so be it.
If the teams couldn’t afford it, they wouldn’t offer it.
He was their own, they drafted him 7th overall.
Nola was developed by the Phillies
His developer is currently the ATL pitching coach.
One of them. And this is a big reason why I thought Atlanta was a possibility.
@ RunDMC – I was upset when Kranitz left Philadelphia. He really brought out the best in teh pitchers at the time. Notably Nola and Eflin.
The Braves have one heck of a pitching coach.
He was drafted by them and developed by them. So your comment makes little sense. It’d be one thing if they were signing a huge free agent from another team. But they’re resigning a pitcher that they did develop.
OIC2021 — And that’s precisely what the Phillies did with Nola, sign and develop him.. All MLB contracts are obscene but in that market this is a fair deal for both. Smart move.
They did develop him.
Nolan was drafted by Phillies, always been one of their own.
Phillies did develop their own pitchers. One of them is Aaron Nola, and they did the right thing by re-signing him. They also have had a lot more recent success than the Guardians/Indians.
They actually are pretty good at developing their own pitching. Just not ready yet but they will be contributing to this competitive window for sure. Painter is going to be a stud and there are definitely others.
good vibes only — If Painter can stay healthy he will be an ace.
Blue Baron — More than that, she’d be alive.
@Pete’sView
Totally agree. +Abel & McGarry both coming probably not aces but mid rotation upside to round it out. There is a good core here they don’t even need Nola to be an ace for that full contract.
Says the Scarecrow. The wizard of Oz can’t even help you.
The way you interact with people is disgusting. I rarely mute anyone, but you’re worthy.
They did develop him. Now they are keeping him
Name me the team that developed Aaron Nola… oh wait, it’s the team he will be playing for for the next 7 years.
Also, free agency is inevitable for a good player unless he only signs extensions throughout his entire career, so good pitchers will always reach a payday at some point, and the Guardians are too broke to be able to sign these guys. Is that because their owner doesn’t have the money? No, Dolan definitely has it, he just doesn’t want to spend it.
Umm they did develop Nola. Your comment makes no sense. He even gave them a discount to stay in Philly. Perhaps you should give your old hooked on phonics tapes another listen…
First part of the comment makes perfect sense, my apologies for your inability to understand it, so allow me to break it down for you.
“Name me the team that developed Aaron Nola…” ~ request for OIC2021 to understand that the Phillies developed Nola and proceeded to re-sign him, which he believes worked better for Cleveland (it may, but they’re organization has only had 1 pennant since the 90s).
“oh wait, it’s the team he will be playing for for the next 7 years” ~ a sarcastic attempt for me to say to OIC2021 that the Phillies were rewarded for their development of Nola with him signing a large, but team friendly contract, which is something Cleveland never sees.
As for the second part of my comment, you are right in that I could’ve worded it much better and in a much more clearer fashion, so I should work on my phonics (Although my only exposure to phonics tapes are the Monkey phonics tapes from South Park). I was basically trying to further the point that all pitchers who are successful eventually reach free agency, but even I had trouble putting my thoughts into words.
I appreciate the feedback on my comment, as there are several ways in which I could have made it better. It was my pleasure to help you understand it a little bit better, but if you are unable, then let me know so I can further explain :).
hooked on phonics tapes reference
Sick burn…
@KP23 – Hookt on Phonics wurked fore me!
Uh, he was drafted by the Phillies and has played for them his entire career. How does that not fall into the “develop your own” category?
Nola was drafted and developed by the Phillies.
much easier said than done. the Phillies have had a long history of not developing pitchers. Among pitchers drafted by the Phillies Robin Roberts won 234 games with the Phillies and 52 games with other teams. Grover Alexander won 190 games with the Phillies and 187 with other teams. the drafted pitcher by the Phillies who is third on their all time list is Chris Short with 132 wins. those two are the only pitchers who ever started their career with Phillies and have over 200 wins. Curt Simmons is third with 193.
Nola was drafted by Philly, so….
my point about Philly not developing pitchers was in response to another post that said the Phillies should be like Cleveland and develop their own pitchers. I was pointing out how bad they’ve been doing that.
Braves really played the Phillies here. They got desperate & overpaid for a name brand starter with a 4.5 ERA. And we’ll see how that contract year phenomenon goes for a pitcher that will be 31 in the first of a 7 year contract?
Incredible job by Nola & his agents!
How did he do in the play offs against the braves again please tell me
lindle, don’t look for logic on a sports bulletin board. Well, outside of me!
So the GM should pay up for a game or two of past performance, to the tune of an oversized 7 year contract? GMs are supposed to pay for *future* production, not the past.
And his past includes two bad seasons out of the last 3…and a bad contract year in the last year of his prime.
Well, the Phillies paid out based on half of a decent season from Zack Wheeler. He seems to be doing… *checks notes*
very well.
Free agency is not “pay what future production is worth”. It’s “pay more than what other teams are willing to pay for the talent that is available”.
As a Phillies fan I wasn’t excited to resign Nola, but for $25M/season in today’s market that’s actually not too bad. Better than the $30-$30M some were predicting.
He did great pitching only at home in front of a hostile crowd with 7 runs of support/game. Can’t wait to see him on the road. PHI did everything possible to not see that happen during their postseason run.
lindle368
“But we beat the Braves” – Phillies fans.
Nola has had 3 NLCS games for an ERA of 6.00 and a 1-2 record – 15ip for 10 runs and 4 home runs.
Nola has had 1 WS, 2 games and a 8.64 ERA – 8ip for 8 er and 2HR and is 0-1.
“But he beat the Braves”…
Braves are not gonna be as good in the coming years with other teams catching them
Jon Heyman reported that Nola turned down higher offers. One of those is likely from the Braves. So while I still think AA is a genius the idea that the Braves player anyone is false. Phillies got the guy they wanted.
As a Mets fan, I hope for nothing but failure for the Phillies in the future.
However, much like the Nimmo deal, I do like the idea of an entire career being spent with one organization. Nola is as good a candidate for this as any.
Watching kids watch baseball really makes me appreciate long term guys more. Of course these things don’t always age well, but there will be kids growing up watching Lindor, Nimmor, Harper and Nola staying with their team. It’s a pretty special thing, and unfortunately, very rare in today’s game.
Lindor and Harper have already switched teams.
I understand that. I meant with their new contracts, they are staying on one team for a very long time.
Sorry, but knowing how secretive Braves FO is, how many people would take the bait connecting Nola to ATL (Kranitz connection, LSU/SE pull), and how scattershot Jon Heyman is, I can’t believe ATL would have a higher offer. They value analytics too much in free agents to think they would pay that much for someone coming off one of his worst seasons in several categories.
Heyman’s post is vague. I can see Atlanta going much higher AAV for much less years.
What basis do you have for that for a team that has rarely gone above 22M AAV (Donaldson: 1/23M) and never more than 23M AAV? Remember, their franchise record contract is still $75.25M (BJ Upton). While that should change, possibly this year (Gray?) — doubling that like what a Nola offer would take is completely out of LF for ATL….especially if they let Fried walk in a season.
raisinsss, As a Phillies fan, I hope for nothing but failure for the Mets in the future too. And I also like a player in one organization for a career – voluntarily.
$75.2 is the most for a FA, but they went over $200M for Riley.
Lindor and Harper didn’t stay with their team.
The fact that Heyman is reporting higher offers. It could be wrong, but Atlanta was reported as one of the more aggressive suitors. I absolutely cannot imagine the Braves offering more than 7 years. I’m sure we will find out eventually.
VonPurpleHayes
I doubt that very much, but believe all the rumours and conjecture you like.
I am pleased & very relieved the Braves didn’t sign Nola..
Where the heck would Lindor go with that contract?
@VPN – At teh end of the day, that’s it right there. Phillies #1 prioroity was bring back Nola. They were hoping to do so on a hometown discount and they got that also. For them, it’s missions accomplished.
Nola has a lifetime WHIP of 1.13 and consistently pitches 190+ innings, 200 SO and has been very durable. He is a known entity.
2 of his last 3 years have been remarkably bad with a career-high in HR/9 and career-low in SO/9. They didn’t even trust him on the road in the postseason, coincidence or not. Let’s see how he pitches when he doesn’t have 7 runs/game in support (in the playoffs).
“They didn’t trust him on the road in the postseason ” The Phillies didn’t move aroubd their rotation at all. Perhaps they should have, but Nola pitched whenever he was supposed to. So yes, this is purely coincidence.
“remarkably bad” is vastly overstating his performance.
He’s also 30 years old now, has never been a power pitcher and with each year of increased avg. velo across the league his velo becomes more pedestrian and that doesn’t even consider the downside of aging as an athlete. Combine that with the fact that for all your evidence of his value, he posted a 4.46 ERA in 2023, which is absolutely trash. When you are bad enough to make average Marco Gonzales look like an All-Star, you don’t deserve Taijuan Walker money, let alone the Felix Hernandez treatment! Say what you will, but this is a stupid overpay. Austin Nola should’ve quit baseball and signed up to be his agent, he would make more money over the next 7 years working for his brother than being a pro baseball player.
I’ve seen some funny takes in these comments, but comparing Nola to Marco Gonzalez because their era’s were within 1.00 of each other might take the cake lol.
Other teams can’t offer contracts yet
Rex, free agency is wide open for all teams and FA now.
Didn’t know that since this was the first signing
Unlike others, I think ERA is very important, but in Nola’s case not so much. He eats innings and they are quality innings. Every year. He’s solid and the Phillies made the right move.
Doesn’t matter what he did., Only what he’ll do.
One could argue the Phillies paid extra for the privilege of keeping a home-grown star in their uni for what is likely his entire career, and there’s value in that. Both in keeping fans and making money.
Compared to performance, that doesn’t matter much. If his ERA sits b/t 4 and 5 for the life of the deal, no one will be buying Nola unis. Few will be buying tickets b/c he’s on the hill that day.
I think less than a $25m per luxury tax hit for a pitcher of Nola’s pedigree is actually reasonable. How much production did the Yankees get out of Rodon this year? How about DeGrom in Texas? At least with Nola you know even on a bad year he is gonna get his starts in. It’s less than $25m to a guy that has been a big part of the team for almost a decade. He helped get that WS for them and came up through the system. Yes 2023 was a bad year but you could say a good portion of this deal was a reward for past performance. Besides, a pitcher with his pedigree that doesn’t get injured would have easily beat that number going to any playoff contender. The part of the article that shocked me was calling Turner’s defense a black hole. Did he really fall off that much this year? His defense was always stellar in the past.
His defense is not what it used to be. (-3DRS). If it continues, he’s a second baseman.
Nola’s thrown almost 2,000 innings in his adult life (incl college). He’s beginning to look a little like Rick Porcello on the stat sheet, and Porky was right around 2000 MLB innings by age 30 (probably 2,200 overall), though he’d never been as good as Nola.
Still, it could go either way. In front of a top 10 MLB defense over his career he’d probably be close to 40 WAR and have an outside shot at the HOF. He’s reputed to be a smart guy, so if injuries don’t get him, he might return enough value that the Phillies only wince and don’t go into a coma at the mention of his name in 2035.
I didnt know this but I just saw His k/9 numbers have been getting worse every year since 2020. I wouldn’t want to hand out a contract like that when there are better pitchers out there that you can get for that amount.
Take a look at his WHIP numbers since 2018. Nola is a quality arm.
I’d look at his FIP before his WHIP. The defense behind him lately has not been good.
It’s good that he upgraded defenses so his FIP can be reflected better. Oh, wait.
By staying with Philadelphia, Nola is likely to post higher ERAs than his salary would lead many fans to expect because his defense is below average. ERA is not solely the pitcher’s responsibility.
I think we are arguing the same point.
Which is always fun, right?
7 years. Yikes. Very risky. But they needed him to compete. It’s not my money.
I still would have preferred Yamamoto, though signing Nola will be less expensive and better than signing neither if the Phillies would have been outbid.
He’s a known quantity to them too. Who knows maybe they still go at Yamamoto
They’re saving their money to re sign Wheeler. Once they signed Nola, Yamamato and all the other top SP, were eliminated. I think they know that Cohen is probably going to outbid everyone for Yamamoto. Nola is a good SP and innings eater but to the age of 37?
Of course, there are no guarantees, but Nola has been durable. His motion is easy and loose and less likely to lead to injury and time missed.
There is a report from the Inquirer that the Phils are still in on Yamamoto.
Yamamoto is a complete unknown who is going to cost close to what Nola got. I’d stick with the known quantity.
I don’t think it will be close. With both NY teams involved I predict Yamamoto will get 9/275.
You forgot the Angels. Moreno needs a Japanese player to market after Ohtani levels.
I heard he wants a lot of opt outs, you could possibly do 300 million, and hope he leaves after year two
I’m not sure the Mets are a lock to go for it this year (which would include signing Yamamoto). There’s a non-zero chance they unload Alonso and dip under one of the tax thresholds while hoping for lightning in their younger unproven players and some bounce back SPs.
That said, short of Ohtani nothing would surprise me from Cohen.
Too high.
Signing Yamamato has nothing to do with going for it this year. He’s signing a 7 or 8 year deal. The Mets will add 2 long term SP (4 year deals or longer) to their rotation. Senga and Quintana are the only locks in the rotation and probably 1 of Luchessi, Megill, Butto, or Vasil for the 5th spot. They’ll also sign 2 or 3 high end RP’s. All the FA $$$ is going towards pitching not Ohtani. They may sign 1 decent bat. They’ll rely on the core and their young kids in 2024.
Ah okay, David.
Thanks!
For what it’s worth Fox is reporting the Phillies are still in the running for Yamamoto.
Halo11Fan is really stupid and every time he says something I’m constantly amazed at his new level of ignorance. I mean, why do they need a Japanese player?! Nobody is going to come watch that dumpster fire of a team anyways.
Trout’s about to spit the hook, their 3B is going to make Angels Ballpark feel more like a site for RENDitiON than Rendon, The only thing positive Angels fans will have to say is Neto when they lose, while the team will be an Urshela of their old self, and they’ll be lucky to Ward off injuries in the outfield.
They aren’t, it was made clear they are targeting 2025 or more likely 2026 for their big run at the Braves, which is why I wouldn’t be surprised to see them trade down for a younger closer with big upside, while moving DIaz before he becomes a free agent in a few years. Especially considering he’s going to be in his mid-30s by the time they are ready to compete again. It’s why they are thinking about trading Alonso, and might even consider moving some other pieces like Marte or McNeil if they can bounce back by the deadline in 2024.
A 24.5MM AAV is not unreasonable at all in today’s game. I believe DD wanted to get out in front of Yamamoto’s posting tomorrow. I expect bidding to be insane. Nola will look like a bargain in a few weeks.
By the time Yamamoto plays out his contract he’ll be the same age Nola is now…
@Pat I’m willing to bet Yamamoto will only sign a deal with a player opt-out by 30 y.o.
Sounds like he wants a opt out at year 2, and 4. He’s going to get a huge deal
$25 million is a good value for a guy who will be 31-37 & is coming off multiple years with a 4.5+ ERA? This is comparable to the Patrick Corbin signing. And Corbin had a much better track record than Nola…
Nola has a far better track record than Corbin did at the time he signed.
Corbin had literally one above average season before signing that deal, and his peripherals were much worse overall than Nola’s. Nola has been a well above average pitcher his entire career, and his only real weakness is his tendency to give up the long ball
He had 3 seasons above a 3.0 fWAR prior to his contract with the Nats. Divide that by 3 & yes he only had 1 above average season. #Math
Well, the long ball and the fact that in 3 of the past 5 seasons he’s had an ERA over 4…. Maybe this is just the new market value for back end starters?
Yeah I’d have let him walk Dombrowski is known for inflating payrolls to build winners though so it’s not unexpected. Team will be trash in 2-3 years. See Tigers.
DD followed the instructions of Mr I. Mr I was the one with no concern over the future. What got DD fired was trading Price to Toronto for prospects, i.e. looking towards the future.
You’re right on. Plus trading for Robbie Ray. Illitch Sr wanted to win right now and had no concern for the future.
The fact is the last time the Tigers were relevant Dombrowski was in charge.
Yes Dombrowski is probably going to leave the Phillies once the bill is due on all these big long term deals. But if you get a championship before then so what? And the Phillies have been darn close the last couple years.
That’s what people were saying 2-3 years ago about the Phillies though…
The Tigers made it to the WS with Dombrowski. That was 17 years ago and they haven’t even been remotely close to doing it again since.
Because the Tigers fired Dombrowski and cut payroll big time under Illitch Jr after his father passed away. Illitch Sr wanted to win Jr more concerned about profits.
They were there in 2006 and 2012.
And they won the division 4 years in a row and played in the ALCS 3 of those years. But alas they did not close the deal and that’s what it’s all about.
I forgot about 2012
Except for that World Series appearance in 2012 and ALCS in 2013…
I wish all GMs/ execs were like double D. The off seasons would be so much more interesting
Exactly VPH. Long term FA pitching deals are risky as hell, but Nola should give them some very good years moving forward.
They basically had to do this, unless they knew that they were going to sign Yamamoto. Given the fact that Yammer is being posted tomorrow, they probably knew that they were not a favorite destination already.
You have a far greater depth of understanding when you sign your own guy under these circumstances. They know his health, and they know what they can do to tweak things to keep him on top of his game (which was shown as he adjusted this year to the pitch clock, and his mechanics later in the season). So as risky as it is, it is less risky by far than a Snell, with a much higher floor than Yamamoto.
And the clubhouse also has benefits, as they love to see their team retain key players by paying them really well.
So you’re saying it was Nola or Yama? I believe there are other choices.
None as good.
@styme – Yes, they were the top two choices.
* Snell – similar cost, with a huge potential variance in performance and reliability.
* Jordan M. – his contract value skyrocketed in the past year, well beyond reality given his stuff. A very solid #3 guy with some upside, but no way that I pay $150m for the guy
* Sonny Gray – probably the next best option if he did a three year deal.
And then you start to really wander away from what the Phils needed…a top of the rotation guy. Nola has been that, and should have a very good chance of being so again for the next few years.
If you really believe that Jordan Montgomery is a #3 starter, please consult elementary texts on the game.
JM, 2021 to 2023:
3.48 ERA
121 ERA+
524 IP
94 starts
3.62 FIP
8.3 K, 2.3 BB, 1.0 HR, 8.3 H per 9
1.184 WHIP
10,2 fWAR
—With “some upside,” no less!
I figure the Phillies are looking at this as 5 years $34+ a year and anything beyond that is a bonus
Less than $25m aav does help though… Amazingly that’s not much for a quality starter now
Kind of makes you wonder what happens with Wheeler’s deal next year. Plus the status of Painter, Abel, etc…
I’d also like to see if they could get more than 5 and 1/3 innings out of Walker per start.
Would have looked so good in a Cincy uniform. Oh well, at least he’s not a Cardinal or Cub .
Bob wouldn’t lay out that kind of bread.
Probably even made his mom take a pay cut when she got older.
Everyone looks good in a Cinch uniform. Probably my favorite uniform in baseball. I prefer the black sleeves too.
Ted Kluszewski!
Picked at least one right on my free agent competition list.
Yep. This is exactly what I expected.
0 for 1
OH YEAH WELL I COULD’VE GOTTEN IT RIGHT IF I WANTED 2!!!!
Dombrowski again has no problem writing checks. Wonder if he (Dombrowski) will still be with the Phillies during the last year of the contract?
He’ll conveniently bounce 2 years before everyone realizes the team is in tattered ruins like he always does
Unlike his Boston years, he isn’t trading the farm. He’s just working with an owner with an open checkbook. Very different circumstances. Phillies farm isn’t great, but DD has done a good job keeping key prospects.
Part of his job is (or should be) to rein in the owner’s fantasies. Instead he indulges them
so your gonna tell your boss what to do??
PtB
“Part of his job is (or should be) to rein in the owner’s fantasies. Instead he indulges them”
His job should not be to reign in the owner.
His job should be to carry out the owner’s wishes. Be that whatever they may be.
Informing the owner of how different moves will impact winning and revenue in the short and long term probably makes sense.
FR
“your gonna tell your boss what to do??”
A good boss should listen to your input, yes.
Crazy how the owner of every team he directs suddenly begins to throw crazy money at every incumbent FA and many other of DD’s favorites
The owner is willing to spend. There is no salary cap. Middleton didn’t hire Dombrowski to build him the team with the best ROI, he hired him to build a winner
PtB
“Crazy how the owner of every team he directs suddenly begins to throw crazy money at every incumbent FA and many other of DD’s favorites”
Not really
A certain type of owner with a team in a certain situation will hire DD
DD will accept offers from a certain type of owner and a team in a certain situation
The Ray’s and DD aren’t a match, for example.
owners of team know that already. They are billionaires who know business. If a owner says sign this guy its already been discussed. These decisions are talked about way before contract negotiations So I say again your gonna say no to your boss
Every owner wants a sustainable winner. You don’t think he’s gonna pissed in 3-5 years when he’s watching his band of corpses being trot out there every night?
And Dave is actually building the farm. He has drafted better than his inept predecessor Klentak.
PtB
“Every owner wants a sustainable winner”
Not necessarily. Some owners, see Seidler and Ilitch, are firmly in win now mode.
Also, it”s absurd to think that dicussions regarding short and long term impacts of deals aren’t discussed.
Klentak is miles better than Dombrowski. Phils’ farm is pretty terrible rn
in 2 years Harper and Turner will still be here plus Nick will be in the last year of his contract Schwarber will be off the books.
LOL! You’re absolutely imsane
Wow. Just wow. One of the most absurd statements yet.
Listen, yes. Be told what to do, no. Completely different things.
With Miami/Florida, he built up the team, won A WS, traded it away to build the foundation of another WS winner. I would have liked to have seen him do the rebuild in Detroit.
Harper was signed before DD arrived. Money being spent in Philly didn’t begin when Dombrowski came to town lol.
“Klentak is miles better than Dombrowski. Phils’ farm is pretty terrible rn” *rotflmao*
von – DD knew exactly who to trade and who to keep in the Sox farm system. Virtually every prospect he traded away has amounted to nothing or close to it and he got a championship team in return. The guys he kept? They’re the ones that are starting to fill out the Sox mlb roster. I’ll take that kind of performance out of a PoBO every day of the week.
Yes. I agree. I honestly don’t understand the DD hate. The Phillies were an absolute disaster from 2012-2021. I just saw a WS appearance followed by an NLCS appearance. They came up short, but this team is watchable. In 6 years time I’m sure a retool will be needed, but it’s worth it for what I’m getting.
i guess you didnt watch Klentak and his ability to build a farm He was a terrible GM and goes to show your lack of knowledge of the situation. DD drafted Painter Crawford Abel Kerkering. Meanwhile Klentak drafting Moniak #1, Hasley. Didnt draft anything after Bohm and Stott. Didn’t make 1 good trade had the worst bullpen for years
Dombrowski will be long, long gone when the Phillies are still paying Trea Turner and Nola when they are performing below replacement level players.
But in the meantime . . .
Sheesh
Dombrowski is so bad lol. Has the guy ever made one creative move in his life? Half this team is a bad contract rn
Back to back deep playoff runs? Definitely not sharing your opinion. Also hasn’t shipped out our minor league talent either.
Anyone can get to the playoffs by throwing absurd money at a bunch of free agents. It isn’t difficult. He also inherited Harper, Nola, Wheeler, JT, Suarez, etc
The Padres would disagree.
Other than Detroit, (Boston, Miami, now Philadelphia) DD comes into strong young teams, throws tons of money at FAs then leaves after a handful of years. With the team in shambles. We’ll see if Philly is different.
Really, explain that to the Angels. They’ve had some of the biggest contracts but struggle to play up to .500.
He hasn’t left any team in shambles. That’s just ignorant nonsense.
The Phillies bullpen went from the league worst, to one of the better ones in the NL under DD. All without spending a bunch. Your point about the other bad contracts is absolutely valid, but DD worked his magic with the pen. Really the only contracts I dislike are Castellanos and Walker. Nola’s scares me, but the market is what it is.
Even Walker was a defensible gamble. DD has done a great job.
Spare us. Thr Alvarado deal alone debunks your comment. Not to mention revamping the OF. Not too long ago we had odubel, cutch, and aaron freaking alterr.
I’d rather have odubel Herrera play all 3 OF spots himself than throw 180 m at Castellanos and Schwarber.
The bullpen barely means anything. Having a good bullpen is worth like 1-2 wins a year over an average one
This comment totally erases all your credibility. Herrera isn’t even in the majors anymore. Phillies went to the WS and the NLCS. They spent a ton to do it, but the Padres and Mets spent more without those results.
I was hyperbolizing to make a point, clearly. He didn’t “fix” anything. Team still has 2 below-average OFs who are wildly overpaid and a platoon bat w/ K issues in Marsh. Dombrowski didn’t do anything
Didn’t do anything? He spent an ungodly amount of money to make the Phillies significantly better than they were. You could argue if his moves were good or not, but they went a decade without a playoff appearance before he got here. He certainly did something.
How does one erase credibility when none exists in the first place?
SuperPhillieFanboy enters chat. Welcome!
I’m a known Phillies hater but I couldn’t disagree more. Harper has been great as always, turner out up ok numbers, wheeler has been elite, Schwarber had put up solid but boring numbers. The Angels, Mets, Yankees and Padres all tried to “buy” there way into the playoffs and that didn’t work out.
Dombrowski didn’t sign Wheeler or Harper. Or trade for Realmuto. Didn’t draft Stott, didn’t develop Suarez, didn’t acquire Nola…shall I go on or nah
No, you shouldn’t.
TIA.
And yet when he arrived in Philadelphia they went from being irrelevant to being a WS contender. How do you expect a GM to be “creative”. Is your idea of “creative” trading away top prospects for players when they are a large market and can afford players in FA? Dombrowski is not an AJ Preller that gives stupid contracts to every single player (see You Darvish.) Granted, I don’t think this is the best contract.
Marsh and Rojas cant field?
He inherited Harper and signed Castellanos & Schwarber for 4.3 cumulative bWAR for $80M..
I’m pretty sure I could’ve done that.
Could you have revamped an entire bullpen?
all of these morons forget how bad the bullpen was. they didnt have a single guy throwing over 95.
Pat – Are you thinking of a Dombrowski other than Dave?
Because Dave is famous for making excellent trades and signings that turn out quite well.
Like Kopech and Moncada for Sale.
Beeks for Eovaldi.
Held out for JD Martinez at a bargain price
Extended Xander at a bargain price
Urbina and Martinez for Polanco
Miggy and Dontrelle for Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, Mike Rabelo, Burke Badenhop, Dallas Trahern and Eulogio De La Cruz
Hernandez for Galarraga
Joyce for Edwin Jackson
Edwin Jackson and Granderson for Scherzer and Austin Jackson
Soto for Peralta
Chance Ruffin, Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells and Francisco Martinez for Fister
Jacob Turner, Rob Brantly and Brian Flynn for Sanchez and Infante
Need I continue?
Fever – some people are completely ignorant to future HoFer Dombrowski. They buy into the bs narrative perpetuated by other ignorant “fans”. All they have to do is pay attention or do a little research to realize that he’s a genius.
Galarraga? Edwin Jackson? Omar Infante? Lol.
Most of these moves didn’t move any sort of needle. He also gave up Willy Adames for 2 months of Price, Eugenio Suarez for Alfredo Simon, Robbie Ray for Shane Greene, Travis Shaw for Tyler Thornburg, signed Victor Martinez to a 4 year deal at age 36, issued out arguably the 2 worst deals ever (to Price and Miggy), needlessly extended Sale and Verlander, traded multiple top 100 guys for 1 year of Kimbrel, etc, etc.
Shall I go on or should we talk instead about how he has a .497 career winning percentage despite being gifted top-5 payrolls for like 15 straight years?
Amusing… there are quite a few trades and acquisitions by Dombrowski that did not pan out too. Not a great GM. He spends other people’s money easily and for awhile… then ends up going elsewhere. Best thing about Nola is it clears the pitching market sooner so others will sign, no roadblock, and the price was at least reasonable. Glad to see the Phillies contending.
He’s easily a first ballot HoFer
Didn’t Dave Dombrowski trade for a guy by the name of Max Scherzer? A 1-2 punch of Verlander and Scherzer worked out pretty well. They didn’t win a WS but made it there a couple of times.
Lou – The Scherzer trade is in my list. Haha!
Didn’t he also trade away guy named Randy Johnson too? not asking for a friend
Absolutely nuts.
Another one bites the dust! Wake up AA! Trade for BURNES, CEASE, or go for SNELL, if you dare to dip into free agents! The Braves have 10 open spots on 40 man Roster. Need 60% + of those spots going to pitching! GET TO WORK! STAY AWAY FROM WAIVER WIRE! NO MORE CHIRINOS CHARACTERS, PLEASE!
Another one? First one? Patience grasshopper.
Drinking this early on a Sunday?
To be fair most braves fans are drinking this early during the offseason. Lol.
Some of these people make it hard to be a Braves fan.
Guy criticizing the gm who always makes moves the fastest in offseason.
Fo real, he’s already got 4 bp pieces (re-sign: PIerce, Jiminez / trade for Bummer, Kowar (wild card)) before most front offices started making calls to free agents, not including gotten done with spring cleaning making room for 10 (!) roster spots on the 40-man. AA’s got all his ingredients laid out and is ready to cook.
@ABraves23: Why are you SHOUTING?
Sure, Anthopoulos is crazy for not giving Aaron nola 7 years right? This is the first real signing of the off-season. Chill out. By the way, I hope to God the braves stay away from Blake Snell. I could see the braves signing Woodruff to a 2 year deal for when Max Fried leaves after next year. Kind of like the Kirby yates deal but obviously for more money
First, AA is the best in baseball, and I can’t even fathom questioning him here. Second, Nola was apparently offered more money by multiple teams. Perhaps one of them was the Braves. Time will tell, but either way, AA is the best there is. The Phillies are still trying to catchup to Atlanta.
Nice. 1-1 in my free agent prediction contest! Only 49 more to go!
Thank god I no longer have to worry about the Cubs signing him to an albatross contract
Why worry about it unless you are the team owner and I’m sure the cubs will be making a similar foolish move soon enough .
a bad contract effects team roster construction/performance. just because it’s not his money doesn’t mean it’s of no concern.
Wow 7 years is alot for a pitcher these days but good for Nola.
Slow news day lol
How many new articles will there be about
AA Ron
I know I could get booed for this, but at least the Phillies are keeping the Band together
I have just cracked my first beer of the day with this news!
I hope you’re on the east coast! I’m sipping my morning coffee in CA.
Is it OK if I simply pour some Bailey’s into my third cup of coffee? Does that count?
Yes. Yes it does.
My pop was partial to anisette, so I followed that line. However Bailey’s is more than fine! The more of us that celebrate this the better.
I shall lift another Sam Adams for you goodsir!
MLBTR’s prediction 6/$150
Fangraphs’ prediction 5/$140
If I were the Phils I would’ve offered 6 for $150 and if he gets someone to give him 7 years good for him. In a loaded SP class no need to bend over backwards unless it’s Yamamato and Snell.
@ Kenny
Its not a loaded SP class. There wasn’t enough SP to go around to begin with, as evidenced by bullpen games in the playoffs and WS. Every SP who became a FA left an opening in another teams rotation. That just brings another team into the bidding.
Wait… what?
Ohtani, Yamamoto, Nola, Montgomery, Snell, Gray… any of them could be viewed as staff aces. Plus Rodriguez, Stroman, Imanaga and Giolito as strong #2s.
Then considering Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease are on the trading block…
The high level starting pitching available this year is virtually unheard of. It’s probably the deepest availability I’ve ever seen.
Martras
“The high level starting pitching available this year is virtually unheard of. It’s probably the deepest availability I’ve ever seen.”
Stymee seems to be saying that there aren’t enough staff aces for every team to have one…which…ok
They don’t seem to be understanding that by “loaded class” Kenny was referring to the pitchers that are reasonably expected to be available.
If you look at it from the perspective that all 30 teams would want a top starter every year, yeah. There isn’t enough to go around. There never will be. The teams which are losing a starter aren’t necessarily in the market for a new top starter.
Narrow the focus to the teams who are expected to be competitive who need a top starter and have the budget.
4/5 Dodgers
1/5 Astros
4/5 Rangers
3/5 Twins need, budget issues.
1/5 Braves valuable, but budget issues
5/5 Phillies
2/5 Orioles need, probable budget issues
1/5 Rays need, will not ever spend.
5/5 Yankees
2/5 Blue Jays
4/5 Padres need, budget issues
2/5 Mariners
That’s just my rough opinion on grading the need for teams who are expected to compete who also need a top starter and have the budget to spend on one.
It’s a judgement based on where you think the price to get comparable results will be going this off-season. If you wait too long you might miss out and you don’t want to chase as the musical chairs get filled up.Some players who in analytical theory seem a good alternative but then they are uncomfortable in your city Family issues wife, kids etc and it might turn into a fiasco.
The plans of mice and men sometimes go away.
A Good fit, team culture lots of intangibles
Certain teams always have to overpay.
Both came close on AAV. I think we’re seeing the notion that teams will be keeping AAV lower and adding years
Good for Nola, good for the Phillies
Already 0-1 to start the FA contest
It funny yesterday It was report that both St Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs were the two most likely landing spot for A.N and then bam.
Mr Dave D God of POBO sign him.
I am a little surprised that money bags Steve C with NY Mets or Hal S of the NY Yankees either sit this one out or were out bid. We may never know the truth.
Likely the former, I doubt Mets wanted Nola. Got bigger fish to fry
Exactly I think Cohen and Stearns are targeting both Yamamato and Montgomery. Maybe the other Japanese SP.
You left out the possibility that they weren’t interested in him.
That’s excellent news for the Braves.
Yes. The Braves just crush Nola in the playoffs…oh wait
You keep believing that Nola dominated the Braves and that a historic offense wasn’t cold. Sure, Suarez really is that good. How was Nola in the playoffs when he didn’t get 7+ runs to work with? Not good (NLCS G6). PHI bats best be hawt or that contract will look bad real quick.
I agree the Braves got cold, but to think the Phillies top 3 didn’t have anything to do with it 2 years in a row is being willfully ignorant. Braves are still the better team, but without Nola the Braves likely win the DS in 22 and 23.
Yes, play 162 every day, sit for 5, makes it fair, and it makes great sense. Anyone that thinks there is an on/off switch for hitters to swing and ‘be in the zone’ in the post season against better teams ‘is clueless, and also they can’t have ever played any hand/eye co-ordination sports that require timing. If you think playing sim games and doing bp is a proper preparation for the post season then unfortunately you are without much of an idea in regard to the sport of baseball.
The teams that had the best records are disadvantaged by 5 days off, it is too long by a long way. 2-3 days is the maximum it should be, not 5.
I don’t care what team you follow, you can’t have hitters sitting around for 5 days whilst other teams are getting real reps in real games, it is a factual disadvantage. And before you start with ‘well it didn’t affect Houston, they played the Twins, not exactly a post season juggernaut, with all due respect to the Twins.
May as well make it 8 wildcards, more money for MLB and owners, as that is the way it already is.
Manfred made baseball soft, and he cheapened the test and the grind and slog of 162 games. Furthermore, Braves had the best record in all of baseball and ended up playing the top qualifying wild card team, that is another Manfred farce. If the top team in baseball was to receive some sort of advantage or benefit by winning the most over 162 they should have been playing the lowest ranked qualifier, in this example the Dbacks..
Wah wah
That is about the best you can do.
It’s the only response your diatribe warranted. You’re making Braves fans look bad. Take the L and move on. You still have the best team in baseball. You’d think you’d be used to getting upset in the playoffs by now. If the best teams always won the WS, the Braves would have 65 rings by now.
I’m “making Braves fans look bad”. Why? I don’t represent or speak for any Braves fans here. But maybe you think you represent all Phillies fans here.
Just because you can’t address facts about what I raised is not my problem.
When the Braves play the Phillies on a level playing field, then let’s see if you’ll keep talking about who is being upset.
Brandon Hyde must be ‘making all Orioles players and fans look bad’ going by your clueless comments on ML baseball.
“I don’t think we need five (days off), but we did need a few,” manager Brandon Hyde said after the Orioles were eliminated. “Whether that affected us this series or not, I’m not going to speculate. But it’s a long time off. That’s the bottom line.”
One must wonder who are the people who have said the format is not right.
ARLINGTON, Texas — Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred said Friday that although he likes the current design of the playoffs, the league has heard enough complaints and chatter around the format — and whether it does enough to acknowledge regular-season success — that his office will discuss it.
“It will at least motivate a conversation about whether we have it right,” Manfred said prior to Game 1 of the World Series. “I’m sure that conversation will take place in the postseason. Enough has been written and said that we have to think about it and talk about it.
The other players or ex players that said it’s too long are Pedro Martinez, Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Jimmy Rollins, and David Ortiz to name a few, they know about hitting far more than you ever will. I acknowledge your patent cluelessness.
I’ll take the opinion of Brandon Hyde’s and that of other baseballers over your comment on a rumors site every day of the week, and it shows me just how ill informed and your lack of knowledge on the game of baseball really is that you try in a pathetic attempt to discredit and attack me for pointing out facts.
You’re ‘making Phillies fans look bad’.
Have a nice day.
Welp, I’ll rest easy knowing that if he went to my cardinals that he would’ve been a shell of his former self by year 3. Not the Midas touch, the mozeliak touch
I would have taken Nola at this price. Being frugal isn’t a badge of honor. The Cardinals need help and he could have helped.
I would much rather see the Cardinals give Yamamoto a massive long term contract than Nola or Snell.
The Cardinals are not signing Yamamoto. It’s just not happening.
Gray and Montgomery. One of them is who I expect the Cardinals to sign.
They aren’t signing either of them. Hopefully. I don’t see. Montgomery leaving Mike Maddux. Gray will cost to
much for a team that will be worse in 2024 than 2023.
You seem like a troll. The Cardinals will sign either Gray or Montgomery wait and see.
I don’t understand the worry he’s been the most available pitcher over the last 5 years what’s the problem he gets hit but yeah so does everyone else he’s a good pitcher
Kyle Gibson is in the same area as Nola, but availability doesn’t get you 7 year deals lol.
The Phillies are betting on the FIP. like the Twins did with Ricky Nolasco many years ago. Some pitchers just don’t pitch to ERAs which match FIPs. Nola certainly appears to be one of those guys. A 3.47 FIP over his past 5 seasons presents a reason to potentially view Nola as an staff leader, but his 3.97 ERA over the same span, including multiple consecutive bad seasons provides plenty of reason to be skeptical his performance will ever match the peripherals.
7 years is a huge and rare commitment to a starter. Felix Hernandez*, David Price*, Justin Verlander*, Clayton Kershaw*, Max Scherzer*, Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole*
*won Cy Young prior to contract.
Aaron Nola is in some rarified air right now.
Some very good to great pitchers have never gotten there. Yu Darvish, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jon Lester, Chris Sale, Zack Greinke, Jacob deGrom, Kevin Gausman. None of them ever exceeded 6yrs.
Okay, no Yamamoto IG. But this was the 2nd best outcome.
Yamamoto is also not a certainty as to how he will perform in a different league and usa and team culture issues. No doubt he will have many people helping him adjust. His family and support system can help him minimize distractions and excessive media scrutiny etc.Pitching more frequently, size of the ball. Little things some time mean a lot He’s human not just a robot you plug in and automatically get his Japan results.I bet many teams want a very good scouting report on his psyche, personality etc
Aav about 24.5m seems about right. The years people will have a problem with but that’s they way the league is trending.
Market is now set for guys just above or below him. This should help get the free agent ball rolling.
That’s a lot for a mid 4’s ERA
Buyer’s remorse
Lmaoooo. Classic Phillies overpay. Love it.
Apparently multiple teams offered more.
1 down a few to go before the Braves settle with garbage for 4-5.
Nah they will definitely get somebody like Gray for like 3/45 knowing AA.
Literally just posted he would be the first to fall in the other related thread this morning. This was the easiest to pick. Was never leaving Philli. Yamamoto will take awhile before eventually ending up with the Mets. Snell will quickly follow signing with the Cubs. The FA pitching group this year is really weak. Ice water for the hot stove will be poured sooner than most years with not much to be excited about for most fans.
With THOSE stats!? I might need to start pitching myself!
The AAV is sensible compared to others, but 7 years is a long time for a Starting Pitcher! The only way to figure out cost comparison is how much would he have cost 7 years ago? Well, his last contract (5 years back had an AAV of $11.35M .5 Years $56.75M) Now around $24.25M-$$25M AAV. So, the Phillies will be more than doubling what they paid him last time. The question may be, what will his numbers be in years 6 & 7 ? If not good and you get 5 good years, that comes to $35M per productive year! 7 years is a lot for a pitcher! One TJ Surgery could take 2 of those years away also!
The risk of TJ is what makes seven years sensible. If you give him a 4 year deal and he gets hurt mid way through year one, you get very little chance to recoup any value. Pitchers do get hurt more frequently, but they also age better than your average hitter. The 10, 11, 12 year deals for hitters after age 30 are actually much riskier.
That’s cool. I always like one-team players. Loyalty is admirable.
Not when it comes to your money.
I don’t really know what you mean by that (whose money?) But yes, loyalty is admirable even then.
Money and your family means more than your boss and coworkers in the grand scheme of life.
Yeah, I don’t think loyalty necessarily just equates to your boss and coworkers. There’s a lot that can be considered. Although I’m sure it’s much nicer for him to not have to uproot his family too.
Almost all employers would drop you like a bad habit if it meant they could save money on an equal product. Most companies aren’t loyal to the average worker EVER!!! And if you have this naive notion that I’m wrong, your either dreaming of taken the red pill. As an employee, tou should always look out for you and yours first
He was considering the Braves and the Phillies hit the panic button lol
That’s my thoughts
Jeff Passan is also saying that. Nola was thinking Braves and the Phils overreacted.
The problem with this theory is that it’s been reported that he was offered more by other teams, Braves included. This is coming from Heyman so take that as you will.
Nope. He knows where the pitching market is about to head with Yamamoto, which would have jacked Nola up over $200MM.
Nola is a good pitcher and he earned this contract.
How is it a panic button. For the past year or so, the Rodon deal has been the rough benchmark for Nola. One year longer, with a cheaper AAV and Nola has a real track record for actually being able to take the mound.
What this shows is that the Phils were targeting him as their top option all the way along. I respect the hell out of the Braves organization, but DD & Co. along with Middleton are now in the conversation as well as one of the best in baseball.
Sit back and enjoy the rivalry, and stop worrying about snarking…
Nola probably better off in bigger park.
Reliable for 190 IPs, 4.00 ERA, 1.2 WHIP going forward.
Market rate I guess.
Rather have the Japanese kid. More upside.
$172M and the contract goes to age 37 for a starting pitcher who had an ERA in two of the past three years around 4.50??
You shouldn’t use ERA to judge a pitcher. He plays in a hitters park with a poor defense behind him.
@Joel P – FYI: Nola was very good in that hitters park (3.29) while very bad on the road (5.43) with terrible HR/9 rates — hence why he didn’t pitch on the road in the 4 postseason games he appeared in. Does that sound like a $170M SP — someone you have to schedule around?
Nola is a top pitcher in the game by pretty much any measure you look at. Didn’t he pitch really well in 3 out of those 4 games you are talking about?
I don’t get it. What team do you root for?
What measure are you looking at? Because having a career-high in HR/9 and career-low in SO/9 doesn’t sound like career ascension. He’s been bad 2 of the last 3 years. Yes, he’ll eat innings, but he is no longer one of the best pitchers in the game and is benefitting from the market.
He has not been bad. He pitches in a hitters park and plays in front of one of the worst defenses in all of baseball.
You are a Braves fan.
It’s really lame to show up and criticize a rivals signing just because you cheer for a different team. You don’t even believe what you are typing you are just mad.
How long did it take you to figure out I was a Braves fan? lol. No, seriously. It’s taken you a couple of posts.
Braves were heavily connected to Nola, as well as they should have been, but sorry, when you’re saying dude is a “top 10 pitcher” when he’s coming off a 4.03 FiP contract year and a career-high in HR/9 with a career-low in SO/9, I’m glad you gave him what AA wouldn’t. I can’t be more serious.
Dude I am not a Phillies fan……
Sorry, I used the wrong pronoun. Focus on the nouns.
The wrong emPHASis on the wrong sylLABle?
Okay. ERA+ 107 past 5 years, 102 past 3 years.
Loyalty to their own guy, I like it. Flood gates just opened on the SP market! Can’t wait for more signings and trades over the next month.
Lots of competition for the good SP’s. Huge blaring alarm for the teams that need multiple frontline SP’s, like Cards and Red Sox. It’s gonna be tough and really, really expensive.
…which is why I noted above that DD got out in front of the Yamamoto posting.
I don’t think this contract is bad at all. I wish the Cardinals would have signed him for this much but odds are it would have taken more to get him to leave.
The number is about right. Very solid #2.
He’s an ace. He’s a top 10 pitcher in baseball.
Top 10 is a BIG stretch. Nola did appear in the top 10 of ERA+ one time in his career, 2018. He’s appeared in the top 10 of bWAR twice in his career (2018, 2022)
0x Cy Youngs. 1x All Star.
Calling him a top 10 pitcher doesn’t fit.
What is ERA+ and why would I use that to judge a pitcher?
FIP is the best indicator of talent and future performance.
Absolutely, then Spencer Strider got hosed in Cy voting (2.85 FiP vs. Snell’s 3.44)
I wouldn’t say he got hosed but yeah I would have voted for Strider over Snell. The thing with Snell is he had a really bad start to the year. But then he was terrific.
@Joel P. You sound awfully confident in your knowledge for somebody who doesn’t know what ERA+ is. FIP isn’t nearly as stable as SIERA or xFIP and in fact, FIP is even worse at predictive outcomes than ERA itself.
FIP is valuable to look at how a pitcher should have performed in the past, if you ignore batted ball profiles, fielding, and park factors. Some pitchers are fly ball guys, some are ground ball guys. Some pitchers don’t pitch well out of the stretch or hold base runners well. Some pitchers seem to perform poorly under higher leverage. Those are real things.
Nola
Career 3.38 FIP and 3.72 ERA why is his ERA 0.34pts higher than his FIP if FIP is so good at prediction?
Last 5 years 3.47 FIP and 3.97 ERA. Why is Nola’s ERA 0.50pts higher than his FIP over a full 5 year period if FIP is so good at predictions?
Last 3 years 3.31 FIP and 4.09 ERA. Why is Nola’s ERA 0.78pts higher than his FIP over the last 3 full seasons if FIP is so good at predictions?
The gap between Nola’s ERA and FIP keep rising. ERA+ adjusts for the park and compares how a pitcher performs overall to the ballparks they played in. So if a pitcher is based in Coors Field, a 4.00 ERA looks a lot better than a 4.00 ERA at T-Mobile Park. ERA+ then compares the resulting ERA vs the league average ERA and gives a result where 100 is league average.
Nola’s ERA+ was 96 (a tick below average) last year, 102 over the past 3 years (a tick above average) and 107 over the past 5 years.
No single publicly available metric should be relied upon as gospel. All you can say for certain is Nola’s actual, REAL results are not close to a top 10 pitcher.
Nola has a better career FIP than he does ERA because the Phillies defense has sucked for years. That’s why.
@Joel P… Why do you keep digging your hole? You have no idea what you’re talking about, yet you just keep digging and digging and digging.
Why did Taijuan Walker & Christopher Sanchez have ERAs better than their FIP with the same defense?
Why is Zach Wheeler’s ERA almost the same as his FIP as a Phillies starter if the Phillies defense causes all pitchers to have bad ERAs relative to their FIPs?
The Phillies defense was on the field for 1,442.1 innings and is credited with:
-30 runs by BIS Defensive Runs Saved
-7 runs by Total Zone Rating
+3 runs by Outs Above Average
Aggregate = ERA should be 0.08 higher than FIP.
2022 = 1,428.1 IP
-34 runs by BIS Defensive Runs Saved
-37 runs by Total Zone Rating
-33 runs by Outs Above Average
Aggregate = ERA should be 0.22 higher than FIP.
2021 = 1418.2 IP
-54 runs by BIS Defensive Runs Saved
-52 runs by Total Zone Rating
-23 runs by Outs Above Average
Aggregate = ERA should be 0.27 higher than FIP.
Taking the last 3 years combined (which is enough for a stable FIP vs. ERA sample)
ERA should be 0.19 higher than FIP for Phillies pitchers.
The rolling 3 year Park Factors for the NL East?
Citizens Bank = 101
Citi = 96, Truist Park = 101, Nationals Park = 103, Loan Depot Park = 98.
Aaron Nola = 0.78 higher than FIP.
Zack Wheeler = 0.22 higher than his FIP.
Nola’s struggles are not all defense. Nola’s struggles are not the home ballpark he plays in or the parks in the division.
Let me know if I need to explain how to add, subtract multiply and divide to you…
He’s no “ace”.
PHI window for a championship is now. This is what you have to pay to keep a playoff caliber team. A lot of strategy & projections that go into it.Competitive division. I would expect PHI tries to extend Wheeler for 4 yrs+. I generally think striking early to lock up some players is a good stategy.This will prbly look like a relative bargain once all the SPs are signed. Yama $ will get crazy I predict
… Nola likes his teammates and the fan environment and generally the way the org has treated him. Coaches and more etc.The Grass over there is often NOT greener in retrospect. He also adds value as a second pitching coach in the later years. Plus there are all those cheesesteak endorsement opportunities Good for him and his family
I had a feeling he would stay with Philly. Not sure what my prediction was for him. I really hope he now stays on the Phillies for tbe entire contract. It’s rare any player to stay on the team they were drafted to.
7-year term is too long for a 30 year old starter but at an AAV of $24.5M that appears to be a reasonable price since the last 3 years likely won’t age well
This is it exactly. In 5-6 years, the Phillies are going to have a lot of old guys on the books who aren’t good anymore, but by keeping the AAVs reasonable, they should be able to deal with it.
This contract might be good news for teams interested in signing Snell
“But guys ERA doesn’t matter. It factors in ballpark and defense too much. Let me insert some obscure sabre metric stat here that suggests he’s an ace.” -MLBTR experts
With the Phillies terrible defense, I actually agree that ERA doesn’t matter haha.
It’s a GM Bryce move. He is determined to win w/ his guys !!! They are the most entertaining team in the sport. The fun rolls on !!
Phillies better win it within the next 3 years cause all these contracts are going to be horrendous the next 5 after.
“All of these contracts” are basically three – Harper, Turner, and now Nola. I suspect Wheeler will follow. The other high ticket deals are shorter term. Harper has been downshifted on the defensive spectrum, which should extend his viability, and Turner has 2B as a long term possibility. It’s also reasonable to expect revenues to continue to increase and salaries to follow, leaving the dollar amounts less of an issue.
nola gets his 2023 pay and that of scott kingery.
Imagine needing to sign three top starters in this environment. Dereliction of duty.
Called it. Terrible deal. Will be an awful albatross or an embarrassing DFA situation in 4-5 years unless they let him limp to the finish line as a $25M AAV 5th/6th starter/swing man.
So, you are telling me that front line starters are only going to be making 25 mil/year in 4-5 years? I suspect 4/5 starters will be getting 28-30mil/yr by that time. So he would still be a bargain in your scenario.
I’m saying I don’t think he will hold up across the deal- but yes, I think in a couple of years Front of Rotation Starters will be making $40M-$50M a year, 2nd starters will be making $33M-$43M a year, 3rd starters will be making $23M-$33M a year, 4th starters will be making $20M-$30M a year and 5th starters will be making $15M-$25M a year, etc.
AAV’s would then be:
Front of Rotation: $45M
2nd Starter: $38M
3rd Starter: $28M
4th Starter: $25M
5th Starter: $20M
And there’ll always be someone who’s spot starting or a swing man in the waning years of an old contract making anywhere from $8M to $22M a year, so let’s add two of those guys averaging $15M each- and this is assuming there isn’t one more guy in the mix making $25M to $50M a year as an albatross that they haven’t yet cut bait with.
Avg. Cost of A Rotation: $223.5M a year for 7-8 pitchers, essentially.
I know this is an extreme version of it. I know most teams tend to only have a couple guys making north of $20M or $30M a year in the rotation and there are pre-arbitration guys coming up and mid-arbitration guys making fractional salaries in the $5M to $20M range, but spread across various teams signing free agents or extending guys going into free agency as their intended middle or back of rotation starters, those will be the average prices for those positions. Which is nuts, but also just the way things have been trending and the inflation has been relatively gradual across the past 47 years since free agency started in baseball.
I’d gladly bet against that.
Its a vital signing for phillies of course but remember it is also vital nola did not end up with division rivals braves or mets or potential playoff, World Series rivals. Teams with a real shot at the World Series are playing under a whole different set of salary rules.
Dumbrowski strikes again. He really did peak with the Marlins. Terrible signing. Nola is MAYBE a ‘3’ on a championship team. Philly won’t be in contention with him on the team.
Nola is not a 3 on any team, but for 7 years? He likely will be at some point.
I agree with you VPH. Also, by the time he is a 3, what will the going salary be for a very solid 3 at that time. It may be more than the 25 mil he will be getting.
It’s all love and roses now but it can get ugly pretty quick if he’s got a 5.58 ERA in July. And it’s “seven” years
It has the potential to be the worst contract in major league history
24.5 AAV will never be the worst contract in major league history. Even if his arm falls off tomorrow. I get your point. It could easily fall apart, but I don’t see 25 a year cripling any team, let alone one of the top markets.
“worst contract in major league history”
This is about Aaron Nola not Chris Sale. That was different DD signing.
Getting nothing out of 7/172 would be bad. One of the worst
He had a 98 ERA+ last year. What if it’s 86 next July? It has the potential to be very bad
I hope it isn’t. I like watching Nola. But the decline in stuff will be difficult to make adjustments with. He’s really stuff dependent
Chris Sale would still be worse. 5yr/150M with 2 opt out (who gives 2 opt-outs in a 5 yr deal?). Everyone in Boston was aware Sale was injured when he inked the deal and DD still had another year to see if he could regain his health before hitting Free Agency.
With multiple opt outs, his health in question, another year of control remaining, a 29M AAV. Sale would still be worse.
I said about 165 170 mill and still over pay but not my dollars
And the first domino falls…..don’t love or hate this contract. The lower than expected AAV is mitigated by the length and extra year. The Phillies were in between a rock and hard place. Nola is a very good but not great pitcher but he felt comfortable and didn’t seem to want to leave Philly. This likely takes a major player out of the starting pitcher market. It’s also interesting on how his deal is agreed to the day before Yamamoto’s posting window opens. I expect it’ll be a mad dash with the LA and NY clubs going hard. With the Cubs, M’s, and maybe Red Sox hanging on outskirts. And it wouldn’t be surprising to see Snell’s reps asking for 30M AAV since he has 2 CYAs
I agree with everything you stated here. I can’t call this a great move, but it certainly seems like a necessary one. The lower AAV is nice from the Phillies’ standpoint, but 7 years is pretty risky.
Once you give Harper 13 years and Turner 11 how risky is it really? It’s a win now team and this move helps them win now. Later is a concern but you win it all and nobody will care.
The risk is in that you can’t give everyone these big deals. They have young guys like Bohm & Stott. They should be trying to get Atlanta like extensions on those guys rather than running out all of their service time.
Also, they couldn’t win with Nola. Bringing him back on the decline of his career for more money hurts upgrading the team. The money will run out at some point. The big issue, is that there weren’t many options in terms of clear upgrades. I would argue that Yamamoto is the only clear upgrade on the free agent market over Nola. Snell is lateral (and likely now) more expensive move. Montgomery and Gray are cheaper but aren’t as proven and are more/less riding a wave of 1-2 good seasons. They don’t have the resume guys like Nola & Snell have.
Why I would hate this signing is they can’t go into 2024 with the same team after choking to an inferior Arizona team. The obvious would be to shake up the lineup. But they aren’t doing that. So if you don’t shake up the lineup. You need to improve the pitching. The same rotation and bullpen minus Kimbrel doesn’t inspire me to buy a ticket or feel better about next year. This is a treading water move at best.
Yes. This is a big part of it too. They are splurging to compete during their competitive window. These players won’t hold up in their latter years, but the lower AAV makes that tolerable.
When you go to the NLCS and the WS the year before treading water isn’t a bad thing its a good thing.
The last couple seasons, DD has been getting out and ahead of the market before prices start getting set. Last year’s signing of Strahm was a perfect example. Many thought it was an overpay but it ended up being a bargain given his production.
But as a fan, this signing does not inspire me. After the massive choke job against Arizona. Re-signing Nola and inking a couple bullpen arms like Stephenson and Stanek doesn’t excite me. Nola’s production is likely only to decline from here.
I think Snell will end up being the worst FA contract given out this winter. I wouldn’t touch him with a 10’ pole. But I think any team that has the capital who decides not to bet on Yamamoto will regret it. I’ve watched enough of his games that I’m sold that he’s a star. He’s 3x times the pitcher Kodai Senga is and Senga outperformed Nola this year. The Phillies are in the World Series if Senga is pitching instead of Nola.
This is a fine deal, almost a necessary evil. But if it’s the only move, this off-season is a slight failure and the first under DD I would be truly upset about.
You sound like an entitled fan.
You may be right. I’m not trying to sound like it though. The Phillies have spoiled their fans every winter since Harper arrived. Trades for Segura & Realmuto, signing Wheeler, Castellanos, Schwarber, Turner, etc.
The reason why I say this off-season could be a failure is because this team is on a time clock. Each season pushes this team closer to decline. Arizona for instance, is a team that could make one signing and be okay. Because they see their team as young, up and coming team with exciting young players at multiple key positions and a solid rotation.
On paper, the Phillies are not better than the Braves. They’re older, slower, more expensive, but right now, they have their number in October. But the Braves are going to plug holes and are looking to get revenge. The Mets are a sleeping giant. Cohen has them going the right way and trying to build infrastructure like the Rays and Dodgers do from within. And he hired one of the most underrated execs in baseball to lead it. And if they hit on young talent, they have the pockets to outspend anyone. Even the Nats are looking good. The pieces they got back for Scherzer, Turner, and Soto are solid with a couple looking like they may turn the corner. I think they’re an exciting dark horse for 2024. And the Marlins always seem to trip themselves and while they aren’t contenders. They always have solid pitching and their big ballpark always trips up the Phillies. They always struggle playing in Miami.
Most of the Phillies players will be experiencing regression next year (if they haven’t started yet like Realmuto & Castellanos). This is a fine move if there’s something else to help support it. But running it back and expecting a better outcome next year when teams like the Dodgers, Braves, and Padres will reload, the Cubs, D’Backs, Giants, & Mets have incentive to spend and get into the postseason. It’s going to be tough.
And lastly, the Phillies need another starter even with Nola. Wheeler is going to be 34 and he was saving innings during the season for October already. So he’ll likely need a reduced workload. Ranger Suarez has been a very good #3 but he’s struggled with various injuries the last 2 years and has spent nearly half of those 2 season in the IL at some point. Taijuan Walker was given $18M AAV for 4 years and pitched to a near 5 ERA. It shows that Thompson didn’t trust him because he didn’t pitch one inning in the postseason. And Christopher Sanchez looked great last year as a #5. But his stuff is just average at best and have to wonder if his weak contact was more luck based than performance. Metrics seem torn on him.
And this is before factoring in that their top 3 pitching prospects, none are lighting the world on fire. #1 Painter underwent TJS and he won’t be on a mound again until 2025. #3 McGarry can’t locate anything and is looking more like a reliever. And Abel, their #2, has struggled at times. He’s not the ace they thought they were getting at the draft. If he hits his ceiling, maybe he turns into a Jon Gray type.
All of this rambling is to say there’s evidence of regression and the Phillies have based their team on the investing of high price FAs and hoping they hit on enough of them. But they aren’t as collectively good as the Braves, as young & promising as a team like the D’Backs, or haven’t shown that they’re willing to spend the stupid amount of money that the Dodgers & Mets have.
The Phillies have increased payroll by 100 million the last 4 years. I dont think any other team in baseball has done this except the Mets.
The Phillies are not built to last. And that’s fine. That’s why you give Nola 7 years instead of trade for Glasnow or something like that.
If this Philies team doesn’t exicte you I would say try football. This is about as good as it gets for a fan.
The truth is most MLB franchise can afford to raise payroll by that much. Phillies fans should be thankful they have a owner willing to do that. As well as a president that is able to talk the owner into spending that money. Philadelphia is the largest market in the country that only has 1 baseball team. Even bigger than Boston. They can afford to spend.
I also think the Phillies can be there long term. The minor league scouting and overhaul of player development led by Preston Mattingly has been great. They helped overhaul guys like Bryson Stott into a borderline all-star and found minor league free agents that can play in the bigs like Bellatti and Hoffman.
Any issues I have with this deal go away if there’s another corresponding move to support it. Call me fickle. I feel fans do not owe their teams anything. There should be a level of expectation and it was the owner who said “I want my f’n trophy back”. If he says that, fans should expect them to back it up. I don’t feel any fan should feel indebted to their team. The team is supposed to provide you a service. But Phillies fans should feel better that they don’t have an owner like Nutting for example.
Speaking of Nutting, if the Phillies come out in the next month and say they make a trade for Mitch Keller. Then this boosts the re-signing of Nola in my eyes. If you don’t upgrade the #2 in the rotation, then upgrade the #3. Same could be said it they trade for a Cease, Singer, Burns, Gilbert/Miller/Woo; or they sign a Woodruff to possibly be a weapon for the postseason.
They say the definition of insanity is doing something twice and expecting a different outcome. They said they won’t shake up the lineup. Then we should expect them to shake up the rotation. Craig Kimbrel can’t be the lone scapegoat. If DD somehow got someone interested in Castellanos and moved him and then signed a Lourdes Gurriel to take his spot. This is another deal that makes the Nola signing better.
7 years.ontge hook wow he will break down
I’m happy he’s off the board. He made me the most nervous of the top pitchers on the market. It’s hard to ignore that 2 of the last 3 years were not good. I hope the Cardinals sign Gray.
I think Snell is actually the SP on the market that should make teams most nervous.
Agreed. He pitches 5 innings if lucky. 8 to 9 strikeouts with a high pitch count in 4 innings isn’t efficient.
I would not do it. I think it’s a mistake. There’s too much potential of Nola getting lit up and never finding it again
Fans would get fed up and then you have a bad situation for 7 years
A decent chance that they have to eat the contract as soon as year 3, maybe even the first year if he is getting lit up in July. An ERA in the 5-6+ region is not outside the realm of possibility as soon as year 1
But I wish Nola luck. I hope he can adjust and battle through age and the loss of velo/stuff
Welcome to the 2023 offseason!
Good deal for Nola and the team and happy he was smart enough to avoid cesspool east Missouri. Meathead dead bird fans swore he was going to their declining franchise. Haha nope
The Cardinals won 93 games in 2022. Declining franchise lol.
2022 seems like a lifetime ago based off the Cards 2023, but a good offseason can change everything. I would never call the Cards a declining franchise, and every year that NLC seems within reach.
Shoot the Rangers were terrible in 2022 and champs in 2023. The fact is the Cardinals have had as much or more success than pretty much anyone in the last 20 years. Marmol is a clown and that’s a major problem. But there is plenty of talent on the team and more on the way. Short term pitching needs serious help and that will be addresses this offseason.
Well, that escalated quickly
BTW= it’s always odd to me when the total value is a fractional AAV.
$172M divided by 7 years is $24,571,428.571428571428571 per season.
I realize it’s could be like $24,571,428 per most seasons with $1 tacked on to 3 of the seasons or something like that….
or it’s gonna be like $12.5M, $15M, $20M, $27M, $27.5M, $30M, $40M or something like that.
I have a theory. Just a theory. He’s made 53 million. (Discounting his 2020 salary). Add 172 and you get 225. Now, no idea if that was the thinking here, but there are psychological goals in every negotiation and whether or not it happened in this case, I’ve often thought players probably get attached to career earning goals. Or maybe not.
Yeah. Assuming that $172M is accurate he will have earned $228,856,353 over 16 years, which is $14.303M a year basically, across his career. Not a bad deal across a whole career.
There may be a signing bonus skewing things, too.
BTW= it’s always odd to me when the total value is a fractional A
==========================
It’s not. It is a $27M * 6 contract, with the 7th year there to lower the AAV.
Same with Bogaerts being a $35M * 8 contracts with three years added to lower the AAV.
I mean, at the end of the day the contract is what it is: a 7 year/$172M deal.
So while I get what you are saying, it’s really just semantics.
Mookie Betts has a 12 year/$365M contract, but about half of it is deferred to be paid out decades from now and about 18% of it is in the form of a “signing bonus” which is paid out in annual chunks- meaning Betts makes like $16M or so per season in real dollars paid out that year, but he makes an additional $3.25M or so as a ‘bonus’ every season and he’s getting another $10-15M or so a year in deferred money starting over a decade later- but it’s all part of a 12 year/$365M guarantee, so that’s the AAV for luxury tax purposes and the total overall value- regardless of the payment schedule and structure.
Like Glasnow having a 2 year/$30M deal where $5M was paid one year and $25M the next year. Still $30M over two years.
It’s all semantics and structural quirks, but length and total value are what they are.
7 years, wow, I was expecting 4 or 5 coming off of a “down year” by his standards.
Yeah. I honestly *honestly* felt like he was barely worth $20M a season, even in this severely bloated market for pitchers. I figured even if they went overboard to sign him they’d go 4 years/$100M or 5 years/$110M at most and that he’s actually worth about 3 years/$59.985M or 4 years/$79.95M- in other words the symbolism of going past $20M a year seemed… like a stretch to me. Then again the Phillies PAY their players, especially their homegrown guys.
Congrats to Nola for securing your family financially for generations to come.
Must say I’m definitely happy he’s not going to be wearing the Cincy or St. Louis shade of Red next season.
They needed him. Honestly, I thought they wouldn’t resign him.
I’m so hype right now, my favorite current pitcher. Go Phils!
Wow, bad news for teams as every free agent pitcher just got a raise because of this inflated contract! But good for Nola and his agent.
I disagree. It’s an overpay in years, but it’s 25AAV. That’s less than many thought. I don’t see this contract changing the market one way or the other.
But to me Von, it’s not even an overpay in years, because teams like to stretch out deals to lessen the luxury tax impact.
Like Von said, dont see this as an overpay at all. Look at some of the recent contracts for lesser sp.
Nola just got one more year but less AAV than expected.
Another player who can buy his own island, what a country.
Well, there’s one wrong already in the contest w many more to follow. Had him going to atlanta
We can all agree on this – when the Phillies really target a FA, they don’t wait around.
The smarter teams will get more pitching for less $. No upside here, only risk. Not one of the worst contracts. Somewhere between meh and we had to get someone and don’t have any creativity and don’t want to gamble. They are all in and sticking with the guy who got them there. Can’t hate on that.
Nola helped them get to the NLCS last year and the WS the year before. He’s a really good pitcher.
First I am hearing of this. Interesting.
This is why Dombrowski doesn’t last real long – he gets early results but signs guys to long-term deals, and those usually bite you later on. That said, I can’t blame him for wanting to re-sign Nola.
Excellent move by PHI. Still way behind ATL but as we see 2x from Postseason, that doesn’t matter so much as long as you get in and get hot
24.5 mil for someone like Nola, carrying him to age 37? I wouldn’t like this were I a Phillies fan. On the other hand, it’s nice to see none of that opt-out garbage included. I’m so sick of that crap it isn’t funny.
Finally! Something actually happened. This offseason has been painfully slow/not active.
Typically not much happens before the winter meetings.
I guess the Cubs signing Alonso wasn’t too bad of a contract wasn’t that dombrowski or no
Nola just set the market. Snell will get at least 7 years and $30 AAV. David Price money. Will it work out any better?
OR he will chose shorter term higher AAV.
Or he will get at least 7 years, maybe 8, and $30 million AAV.
Or he will get even more years and a slightly lower AAV as the trend has been with almost all bigger contracts recently including Nola.
Welp, I sure had that one wrong. I did not think they were re-signing him.
Glad it’s Nola and not Snell
This is just the cost of FA pitching. Is it a year too long? Yes. Is it two years too long? Yes. Is it a bit rich? Yes. Could TJ make two years “worthless”? Yes. But that’s the “cost” of these things. It’s no way to sustainably build a pitching staff. But If they hit on an Andrew Painter, then for three years, the average cost is 12.25 million.
And Dombrowski is a win now decision maker. And no owner uses him as a GM without that expectation. I am sure Dombrowski does not figure he’ll be running things in 7 years anyway, so get the glory now at the expense of a future GM.
Aaron Nola deserves $50+ million more than Kevin Gausman?? What a terrible contract
Gausman looks like a great contract. Compare pretty much anyone’s contract to Gausmans and it will look bad.
You can’t compare contracts like that. The market changes year to year. You have to ask yourself if Nola’s deal is good in this current market. The AAV certainly is, but 7 years is a tough sell.
Good signing. Overpay in years though. The last 3 years of this contract are likely going to be an albatross. Standard Dombrowski move.
Fair considering highly likely he wont be GM by then.
Well, 0 for 1 so far. Had NOLA signing with the Cardinals.
I think we get Gray or Montgomery. Nola it appears wanted to stay and the Phillies paid him pretty well.
Cardinals would be in great shape if they can sign both Montgomery and Gray. Would seriously help them win the division next year.
That would be great but I dont think the money is there for that unless we trade Arenado or something crazy. I know people have said we have 50 million to spend but I don’t think it’s that much.
Maybe a reunion with Michael Wacha, he wouldn’t break the bank and he’s proven to be effective again.
Cardinals did what they could apparently but Nola went with intangibles.
This is fine. Seven years is too long, but the AAV is extremely manageable which is really the only relevant metric.
As to whether or not he deserves this, he objectively doesn’t. But the team *needs* him, or else someone who can replace his production (particularly his playoff production), and there’s no one on the market who can. Snell’s not an upgrade. Gray’s a distinct downgrade. If they want a championship in the next 2-4 years, keeping Nola was the only rational choice.
Clearly 6 would be better than 7, but that’s the price to pay if you wanna get your guy. People on here clutching their pearls over that seventh year, as if it is their money DD is spending. By the seventh year, replacement-level pitchers are going to be making as much as Nola will. If he’s at that level by then, so be it; that’s the cost of doing business.
Phils are built to win now. I like this move a hell of a lot more than wasting 50 million on Marcus Stroman to play for a non-contender for two years.
Another indication of where the market is going, longer deals with lower AAV. So what does Yamamoto, Snell and Montgomery get? 10 years for Yamamoto, 9 years for Snell and 7 for Montgomery?
Phillies needed this. Snell wouldn’t have been the same. It ties him up until 37, which is old but not too old.
Was hoping the Sox could get him but alas, was not meant to be
hard pass on Nola for the sox, Same for Snell. One gives up too many home runs and the other has a hard time finding the strike zone on a consistent basis. highly suspect neither contract will age well
So do you think Ohtani could start to work on throwing a knuckleball and working out defensively at 1B to increase his value? Maybe he could pitch with his other arm Try it for a year maybe
Surprised that Nola took that money so early in the season. I think alot of teams would have matched or beat that. I was thinking he could have gotten 30 million easily a season
According to Heyman and others, multiple teams did beat that offer. He took less to stay with his team.
Which is crazy for a guy with a 102 ERA+ the last 3 seasons. Granted the FIP is a lot better and Philly’s defense is Philly’s defense, but the K rate is declining nonetheless and the defense is only slightly better in 2024 on an elderly team.
He got $172 million and he doesnt even have to change his commute. Not a bad deal when you break it down.
when 12 wins gets you $24m p/s FU $$$, the world has officially spun off its axis.
Ridiculous contract
He might want to live in a state were there no state tax too because he’s going to pay 45 percent in fed
0/1 in the contest. I had him going to the Dodgers.
Taking a little less to stay with the team that put the work into getting you here. Nice.
I don’t get the low AAV thing as being awesome for luxury tax purposes. The extra hit is still there, it’s just getting tacked onto the end when the player is likely to be giving you very little. It’s still going to hurt you.
The idea is that if salaries continue to increase as they have been, 24 a year in 2026 may be the going cost for a #3 starter. Nola will absolutely decline, but by then pitchers may cost drastically more.
Ok. I see the logic. I suppose I’m a pay as you go type of guy. If there’s pain to be had, give it to me now. The thought of having 20-30m unproductive luxury tax space waiting for me down the road wouldn’t be good for my psyche.
Agree. 7 years is pretty scary.
When a team plans to compete long-term, future empty CBT cap space will be filled.
When it comes to rotation arms, look around. 30 clubs. Not loaded with #1s.
On some teams, their #1 wouldn’t be a 2 on most teams. Just not that many good pitchers out there.
First FA pitcher off the board. My guess is Nola is damaged goods and knows it. This will age like a Bumgarner contract IMO, or worse.
Bumgarners deal was a steal…until it wasnt. In the end, it was just a wash.
I had him going to the Mets. So I guess the Mets are lucky they avoided Nola.
The guy might not have an ERA under 4 in any of those 7 years. This is a major risk by the Phillies. Feels like they could have gotten other guys with just as much risk for much less money. Stroman for instance isn’t getting 7 years from anyone
I wonder if this article is about Aaron Nola? He was only mentioned, by name, 22 times…
Aaron Nola has been re-signed by the Phillies. Take note people. It has been done.
@Subatomicbunt
I still haven’t heard. Good thing this is a rumor website and not a truth website.
So to speak..
This contract IS on a par with say, Gausman and Ray in AAV, just 2 more years.
With durability factored in, it’ll likely be OK.
In THAT park, with THAT defense, however, I doubt he ever returns elite numbers.
Great!!!
I had no doubt that Nola would return to Phillies.
Sign a pitcher who is entering his decline for 7 year’s?? I get the fact that it brings down the AAV but I really wonder if the Phillies even carry Nola on their roster in 29-30? The same with Darvish and the Padres. I really wonder if the trend we see in years to come will be teams eating salary to cut late 30’s early 40’s ex-aces they signed to long term deals to keep AAV down.
As a Dodgers fan, I hate the Phillies. But as a baseball fan, I really like Aaron Nola. And it’s always cool to see a long tenured player resign a long term deal, with the team that drafted him. I feel like seeing Aaron Nola in any other uniform would just feel wrong.
As the Zen Masters says, “We’ll See,” and this is particularly true of the Nola resigning. Maybe Nola will see this magnanimous gesture on the part of the Phils as a vote of confidence, and feel the responsibility to start pitching more than four solid innings per start. We’ll see. So, where does this put the Phils? Right back to were they were when they lost to Arizona in the NL pennant series. Even with resigning Nola, the Phils are still the same team and in need of some new karma if they are going to go farther in 2024 than they did last season. Even with resigning Nola, the Phils are still not the best team in the NL and certainly not the best team in baseball. News reports of the Phils pursuing Yamamoto are encouraging, but lest we forget, the Phils were unable to win a championship with one of the strongest rotations ever to play in the bigs. Even the combination of Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Oswald, and Slugging Joe Blanton was unable to win it all. So, as history has shown, strong pitching alone is not enough to take home all the marbles at the end of the season. If the Phils are going to finally become champions in 2024, they’ll have to dramatically improve their offense and run production, as well as their consistency. This will require the addition of another bat to either play an outfield position or first base. This will also require creating a DH by committee environment in which the older stars, i.e. Harper, Castellanos, Turner, Bohm, and especially Realmuto, will be expected to DH on days they’re not playing their positions. So, what’s to become of Schwarber, currently the Phils only DH? If the Phils are really serious about getting lean and mean, they may have to consider doing the unpopular thing and trading Schwarber to a team that can provide another bat or another arm. Even if the Phils resign Hoskins, it would still be in the team’s best long-term interest to trade Schwarber now for more pitching. If the Phils are to become champs, every member will have to create a new mental image of himself, and the team will have to become one where every player can contribute – offensively, defensively, and on the bases, and contribute on a daily basis. Thats what teams like Texas and Arizona did in 2023. To become champs, the Phils will also have to stop playing good baseball on most nights but, all too frequently, playing ball that is sloppy, lazy, and irresponsible. To become champs, the Phils have to develop a winning mentality in spring training and maintain that mentality until they’re handed the world series trophy. I like the idea of signing Yamamoto who will prove to be a bargain at any price. After that and acquiring a lights-out closer, I could see the Phils resigning Hoskins to play first base and moving Harper back to right field where he will be less likely to get injured. However, I’m not sure such a move would satisfy the team’s ownership. What I actually seeing the Phils doing in the not-too-distant future is trading for Juan Soto or Mike Trout, using Schwarber as the centerpiece of the trade. If the Phils acquire another starter, I see them sweetening the deal by adding Taijuan Walker who may still feel uncomfortable pitching for the Phils when he wasn’t used a singe inning in the playoffs. Schwarber, Walker and a few prospects should be able to get the Phils Soto or Trout who, with one more top-tier starter and closer, should finally bring the Phils the first of many consecutive championships. We’ll see.
Sounds like way to much work “onthebucks”….
It would be easier to just have DD use AI to reincarnate Babe Ruth…
Good pitcher and one that every team could use. The avv is fairly right, but 7 years for a non ace pitcher? Wowzer!That’s the only point of concern. Good for Nola thou.
“Impressive as those numbers are” is not proper English. It’s “AS impressive as those numbers are.” You can’t just leave out words for fun.
USE PROPER GRAMMAR, DEEDS.