Barring injury, the Padres will open the season with an established top three in their rotation. Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove have the upside to be one of the best top halves in the National League.
Musgrove is coming back from Tommy John surgery, while King was limited to 74 1/3 innings last year (playoffs included) by a nerve issue in his shoulder and left knee inflammation. They’re free of any restrictions this spring. Musgrove will make his exhibition debut tomorrow against Great Britain in a World Baseball Classic tune-up. King has already started two games this spring.
The picture is a lot less clear from there. Yu Darvish will miss the entire season. Free agent pickup Griffin Canning has yet to pitch this spring as he works back from last June’s Achilles tear. He’s very likely starting the season on the injured list.
That’s also true of knuckleballer Matt Waldron, though it could be close to a minimal IL stay for the right-hander. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote yesterday that Waldron plans to throw off a mound this week and is hopeful of getting a start in before the end of Cactus League play. He won’t be built up enough to start the season on the active roster, however. Waldron is out of options, so the Padres will need to carve out an MLB spot for him once he’s ready or risk losing him via trade or waivers.
That all but ensures that Randy Vásquez will get a season-opening rotation spot. Manager Craig Stammen said at the beginning of camp that the righty had a leg up on a job. Vásquez is out options and needed to make the team in some capacity. He outperformed mediocre peripherals for most of last season but improved his strikeout rate to a league average level in September. He finished last season with a 3.86 ERA across 133 2/3 innings.
It probably leaves the Padres will one spot to fill. The front office has taken a volume approach to the back of the roster, adding a handful of veterans on cheap one-year deals or minor league contracts to see who sticks. They added enough options that it’s not out of the question they open with a six-man rotation.
Pitching coach Ruben Niebla left open that possibility over the weekend, although he implied they preferred a five-man group (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). Niebla said the team is preparing the starters on a usual five-day routine. If multiple depth arms pitch their way onto the roster, they could go to a six-man staff, but that requires dropping to a seven-man bullpen.
If there’s only one spot available, Germán Márquez enters camp as the favorite. The former Rockies righty signed a $1.75MM deal in mid-February. His spot on the MLB roster feels secure, which isn’t the case for non-roster invitees Walker Buehler or Marco Gonzales. Márquez could theoretically pitch in long relief if one of Buehler or Gonzales beats him for the fifth starter role. That scenario (or a six-man rotation) probably wouldn’t bode well for out-of-options reliever Ron Marinaccio’s bid to stick on the roster.
Lefty JP Sears is also in the rotation mix, though San Diego’s series of veteran additions means it’s likelier he’s headed back to Triple-A. Sears was hit hard in five MLB starts after being acquired from the A’s in the Mason Miller trade. He still has a minor league option remaining.
Sears also hasn’t an especially encouraging start to camp, giving up five runs on seven hits (including two homers) across 3 2/3 innings. Márquez allowed three runs on four hits over two innings in his exhibition debut over the weekend. Gonzales, who missed all of last season rehabbing flexor surgery, has given up five runs across 4 2/3 frames over two spring starts. Buehler hasn’t pitched in an official Spring Training game but took on the KBO’s NC Dinos in an outing on the back fields over the weekend, giving up two runs over three innings.
What does “upside” mean in this context? That these three have a history of being good, or that they might be better than they look?
yes
Presumably one or the other or both. Next up, exploring downside.
Or the upside of downside. Which since any player could be better or worse than expected is approximately the total value of saying he’s got upside.
And as a drafting strategy, I especially value those from the south side willing to date an uptown girl
Things will be great when you’re downtown. Everything’s waiting for you.
At least that’s what I’ve always heard.
now wait a minute, the upside to uptown is overrated but downtown is unsung, or sung when you put it that way
Not too late to use Miller or Morejon as a starter, though they might only be up to three innings by Opening Day
I wouldn’t mess with Morejon or Miller even if the back-half of the rotation is looking pretty lackluster.
WAY too late for that.
Trade a left-handed reliever to the Red Sox for Sandoval.
Yuki Matsui is yours.
Much as I like Morejon
He’s on a 1 year 4 mill deal
If you can get back
LHP Bennett 7
INF Romero 13
RHP Uberstine 15
LHP Mullins 16
OF Castro 25
Based on mlb rankings I’d pull the trigger for long term value in a quantity package knowing your pen is still fine with Adam Morgan Estrada and Miller and knowing the farm needs some close to mlb ready guys with a sale on the horizon. We don’t know the long term financial outlook of any potential new ownership group
No way I’m losing Marinaccio over any of WB, GM or MG.
Probably won’t happen but a trade could still be looming, meaning a RP might be dealt to acquire a SP. if not then at TD. Java J’s performance next couple of weeks may dictate
Def think a RP (or 2) for a SP would be the best move to improve the team. I guess they have to give all of those options a couple of weeks to evaluate if maybe they have lightening in a bottle.
Canning probably has a spot once he gets back. They may only need to get a couple of months out of those guys of serviceable innings. I’d love for WB to be like 2024 for a few months to get Canning back and give Joe some rest breaks before all star break.
Yeah I agree losing Mainaccio for any of those guys would be no good.
His work over his career looks pretty darn comparable to what Michael King did in 2021-2022:
Marinaccio:
125.1 IP, 81 H, 65 BB, 149k, 3.02 era (138 era+), 1.17 whip, .186/.310/.310 (.620 OPS)
King:
114.1 IP, 92 H, 40 BB, 128k, 2.99 era (139 era+), 1.16 whip, .217/.292/.328 (.620 OPS)
That’s someone you want to keep around especially with 4 years of control. With health he could be a monster in the pen.
sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/TGmVZ
Who do you have in the pen? I have 6/7 spots spoken for depending on Adams’ health, which means no Rodriguez or Hawkins. Might be worthwhile to explore trading from depth.
BRod or Hawkins are in play I think unless they retain a multi-innings guy like Hart or even Gillespie. Matsui could start season on IL
Hart has an option so I think he’ll be sent to AAA. AFAIK, Waldron and Marinaccio are the only 40-man OoO who may get squeezed, and then there’s Buehler, McKenzie, and Gillaspie to consider among the ST invites. “Best” case scenario there’s 3 spots open in the BP with Matsui/Adam both on the shelf to start the year, and I’m guessing Padres would want to retain at least one of the SPs as a depth option in the “last” spot of the bullpen. If they can stick Waldron on IL/extended ST, I’m guessing BP comes down to usual suspects + Marinaccio and one of Buehler/McKenzie (I think Buehler has inside edge given that he’s worked swingman last season). My guess is Gillaspie is on the outside looking in, but he should be decent enough to catch on somewhere else.
Waldron will start the season on the IL and then the Padres will have a month of rehab assignment before they have to make that decision.
If Matsui starts the season on the IL that would give Marinaccio a spot.
With the volatility of relievers in general and the number of injuries that hit during a typical season there is no reason to trade from the bullpen.
That is unless that player has no options and would be lost to a DFA necessary to make room for a very good starter.
Yeah I mean for a guy like Gillaspie who is OoO. Would be great to keep him at AAA, but no guarantee.
Is it just me who thinks it would be a crying shame if Bradgley isn’t 100% promoted this year? He has little to prove in minors at this point and keeping him there seems like doing him wrong. But rostering him also comes with a cost of maintaining a long reliever perhaps. BRodg could replace a guy like Estrada (who has a lot of trade value right now) if the Pads need to fill another hole somewhere else.
The thought of trading Estrada had crossed my mind, too. I could see Padres going for the best arms in the BP option.. Miller/Morejon/Estrada/Morgan/Peralta are locks, and I’d imagine they prioritize Marinaccio for an injured Adam/Matsui (with Rodriguez as a 2nd injury alternate). Guessing Buehler/McKenzie will be the last arm in the BP. You lose Gillaspie but still have ML depth with Adcock and a few others going down to AAA.
Being in Littell.
I must be misunderstanding something. The Padres have 4 guys locked in. Pivetta, King, Musgrove and Vasquez. Both their manager and pitching coach have said that Vasquez has a spot and the only question is if its #4 or #5 so please don’t bring him up. He is a lock. They have 4 more guys on the 40 man roster that have experience in the majors as starting pitchers. They have 4 more starting pitchers on minor league deals or that are non-roster invites to camp that have major league starting experience. Canning won’t be ready until May and Waldron was shut down, so that leaves 6 guys competing for one spot in the rotation to open the season. What exactly do they need to do to “round out their rotation”? Most teams, including my favorite team, would be ecstatic to have that much depth.
Are we talking “depth” or desperately hoping any of them sticks?
I think Vasquez is the 4 and Marquez is the 5. I would rather try Morejon at starting than Marquez. But I am sure that they will run off Marquez until Canning or Waldron are ready.
MLB, if I was making the calls, that is what I would do as of now. All of the guys fighting for that #5 spot have at least 3 more appearances before any decisions have to be made and they are still at the 30 something pitch level. Not a lot to be taken from results yet. Their coaches are looking at where is their velo and health. Everything else will be determined int eh weeks to come.
Just listened to some guys from the Padres radio station. They said that Niebla praised Marquez’s velocity which in his first outing of the spring was 2 mph higher than last year. They were saying that Niebla also said that
They were saying that everything hinges on Joe Musgrove, not the back of the rotation guys. If Musgrove comes out of his first game action today and feels good, then the Padres will not even look for more options. Only if he is not good to go will they start looking and if they do it will be for a trade for a higher end arm, not the dreck that is available in FA.
Breaking news, Joe Musgrove just left the game with Great Britain with what appeared to be an injury.
No…he came out because his pitch count was too high. 1st outing since 2024.
I should have put an /s after that sentence, but was hoping people would know I was pulling their leg. He was scheduled to go 2 innings and that is how deep he pitched.
Musgrove left the game due to pitch limits. We will probably see that throughout spring training. He sat 95-96 today so he is throwing harder than ever and this was his first start since 2024.
I was trying to be a smart BLEEP, but the attempt fell flat.
The Padres are no longer looking for a back of the rotation starter. Niebla talked about that and Stammen alluded to it today.
They are not looking to round out their rotation. They are not interested in guys like Giolito or Littell that are not obvious improvements to what is on the roster. The only moves they would make would be to drastically improve the rotation via trade.
It’s Marquez and Vasquez. Once Canning is ready that may change. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sears traded before camp ends
Sears has options, no reason not to stash him in AAA unless they’re blown away by a deal.
So, does everyone pretty much figure Buehler is done? No one’s mentioned him as a possible SP option.
I don’t think so, he’ll be given some spring starts and could impress. Marquez, McKinzie and Marco G aren’t exactly winning the job. Sears is in play but has options they’ll probably exercise
Marquez had a pretty bad outing, but then again, so did King, so .. “spring training” and all that. Thinking about it, I don’t recall any real “hot runners” in the SP category. Vasquez has really done about the best, but I’m not watching games every day, mostly just scanning headlines and reading a few articles.
Yeah, too early to think too much into the innings everyone has thrown. Guys like King are focused on pitches more than outs, he’s also just trying to stay healthy. And coaches are looking at the stuff, not the results. I’ve heard McKinzie and more recently Sears have drawn attention with improved stuff.
The first starts of spring for the guys who are competing aren’t as important as the ones coming up mid-March. Marquez and Buehler in particular – ztab said it well in his reply to your post below. Marquez has an edge with the contract he signed but I guess there’s an outside chance they roster them both until Canning joins the fray.
The first outing of spring doesn’t matter for anyone. As long as they come out of it healthy, all is well.
McKenzie is throwing harder than he ever has in his career, but he still can’t consistently find the plate. He is not an option to break camp with the team.
Sears has looked good in his BPs, but I still don’t think there is a path for him to make the rotation unless there is an injury.
Vasquez looked extremely good in his appearance today, his 2nd of spring training. Efficient and drawing swing and misses. 1 hit, no walks or runs, and 3 Ks in 4 IP.
In his first outing of the spring Marquez was throwing harder than he has since 2020. As long as he is healthy, he will slot into the rotation.
Been waiting to see Buehler pitch.
Our wait is over, WB takes the mound today (March 5) at noon PST.
He did pitch Sunday(?) in a backfields game.
Triston McKenzie is the most interesting candidate for the fifth starter role. His velo is up 3-5 mph. His command has been shaky ever since the start of 2023, likely a function of his many injuries. If he can find some consistency in the second half of camp, he could jump on a swing role.
There’s no way they can afford to lose Marinaccio to waivers. The guy belongs in the big leagues. He will make the team.
Especially because, Pads are more than likely losing Morejon and Adam next year to FA.
Marinaccio and B.Rod and Alec Jakob are lined up to fill those spots when those guys depart.
The only other option is a trade of some of these surplus quality bullpen arms to stock the farm or a backend starter.
As far as this logjam of SP, Canning looks like the favorite #5 come May after an IL stint. Until then, it seems like Sears goes to AAA, Waldron, McKenzie, and Gonzales are cut, which leaves Marquez and/or Buehler filling in for 2 months. Im not sure what Ruben Niebla sees in Marquez that makes him so confident in a bounceback, but I’ll trust it. They are high on Buehler, too, apparently.
There is even more big league quality arms in Kyle Hart, Ty Adcock, Garrett Hawkins, Logan Gillaspie, and Jackson Wolf that dont have a clear spot and will end up in AAA.
Bryan Hoeing is another, although he will be on the IL.
The relief depth is mind blowing.
Part of Niebla’s job is to be high on everybody. It’s that “pitcher’s confidence” thingy they talk about. No matter how Niebla’s “feelings” are about potential, in the end, numbers will talk. Marquez and Buehler, for example, had injuries and tough years last year, so this is as much a “prove it” Spring Training for them as anything else. If they’re not on the roster on Opening day, or IL, they’re probably gone, unless they sign a minor league contract as a FA. Right now, I haven’t seen a whole lot of quality from any of them. Marquez 96 mph fastball is something, for example, but so is getting knocked around in the S.T. games.
The relief depth? Yep, something’s gotta give. Too many big league AND back of the bullpen arms, versus some roster holes still not filled (and starving farm system).
Yes, good point. That’s part of what makes him a good coach in general is every guy has mentioned how encouraging and motivating Niebla is. Ultimately, Marquez’s big league deal with the mutual option was around $3 million, and that could give him a leg up over Buehler’s minor league deal.
Even being a bit washed up, neither of these guys are ‘Old’. They’re both younger than Musgrove who is also coming off TJ.
It would be nice to hang onto both.
What roster holes?
A couple of weeks ago I would have made the case for a backup SS being a roster hole. But the team seems to be going with Croney as backup, while also exploring Song there. Otherwise, no holes until there’s the inevitable injury. Meanwhile, if AJ deals from depth in pen it will be to improve the team substantially at some position, not fill a hole that doesn’t yet exist.
Waldron will start the season on the IL and then have a month of rehab assignment in AAA before the Padres have to make any decision on him. McKenzie and Gonzalez are on a minor league deals so don’t have to be cut at all.
Marquez will make the squad as the #5 unless Buehler starts pitching much, much better in his next few starts. Buehler’s best shot at making the squad is as a reliever and he has already said that while he would prefer to start that he would be willing to do anything that would make the team better.
Marquez sat 95-96 in his first start with good movement. Too much movement actually and that is what got him in some trouble. Go take a look at his velocity in the past if you don’t understand why Niebla was excited after Marquez’s start. We will see if he maintains that velocity as his pitch count goes up in future games.