The Dodgers announced that they have re-signed right-hander Joe Kelly to a one-year, $8MM contract. Los Angeles passed on a $9.5MM club option on the ACES client last month, instead buying Kelly out for $1MM and sending him into free agency.
This will mark Kelly’s third separate stint in Dodger Blue. The reliever first joined the team on a three-year, $25MM free agent contract during the 2018-19 offseason, and after L.A. declined a $12MM club option for a fourth year of that deal, Kelly signed with the White Sox on a two-year, $17MM pact. 2023 was the last guaranteed year of that deal, and with Chicago caught in the midst of a disastrous season, the Sox moved Kelly and Lance Lynn to the Dodgers prior to the trade deadline.
Kelly had a 4.97 ERA over 29 innings for the White Sox prior to the trade, but he regained his form in his old stomping grounds with a sparking 1.74 ERA in 10 1/3 innings over 11 appearances for the Dodgers. Since Kelly’s secondary numbers with Chicago had been far more impressive than his ERA, the Dodgers bet correctly that Kelly was due some positive course-correction. For the season as a whole, Kelly posted a 4.12 ERA, 58% grounder rate, 35.7% strikeout rate, and 10.7% walk rate over 39 1/3 innings. While the walk rate is on the high side, the outstanding strikeout and grounder numbers made up for some shaky control, and Kelly’s arm is still very live at age 35, with a fastball averaging 98.9mph.
Despite these results, Kelly’s health has been a question mark, which likely factored into the Dodgers’ decision to decline that $9.5MM option. Kelly has been on the injured list eight times over the last four seasons, with three of those stints (due to forearm inflammation, elbow inflammation, and a groin strain) coming in 2023. While none of the injuries were overly serious, the cumulative IL time cost Kelly around two months of the season, and creates some doubt about how well he can hold up over the course of a full campaign and into what the Dodgers hope will be a deep run into the playoffs.
The bullpen was a big strength for the Dodgers last season, and reinforcing that strength is of particular import considering all of the questions L.A. is facing in the starting rotation. The Dodgers will surely add some depth and possibly even some superstar arms to the pitching staff by winter’s end, yet obviously it helps the run prevention efforts on the whole if the relief corps has enough depth and quality to help bail out the starters. Evan Phillips will return as the closer, with Kelly joining Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson as primary setup options.
Robert Murray of FanSided originally reported that the two sides were “very close” to a deal. Jim Bowden of The Athletic first reported the terms.
Dont know how they do it. Dodgers take the most mediocre relievers and turn them into stars.
Kelly has always had great stuff, was good in Boston and still had good peripherals in Chicago….
I guess youre right. Joe Kelly, Evan Phillips, Ryan Brasier didnt have their best years in LA. Clearly, Im imagining it.
RSMITH, rols wasn’t saying that the Dodgers don’t work good with relievers. He was saying that Kelly has always had good stuff, as pointed out by the peripherals, and bounced back to that level with the dodgers after being traded
What “good peripherals in Chicago”?
2022 1.60 Whip, ERA+ 66
2023 1.31 Whip, ERA+ 91
Then go to the Dodger and it changes to:
2023 0.87 Whip, ERA+ 258
Sorry Im not seeing it. In 2023 Kelly had 6 Blown Saves with CWS and zero with Dodgers. Whatever ‘good peripherals’ that he’s seeing, the Dodgers took and translated them into results. Which is my point.
RSmith
Evan or Ethan?
Dodgers were only willing to pay Joe the Blue Book price!
Evan!
Ethan v. Phelps would be impossible!
The good perpherials, including a 3.13 FIP, 3.12 xFIP, 3.09 SIERA, 86 MPH exit velocity, 60.7% ground ball rate, 31.5% strikeout rate, 0.68 HR/9, and a .358 batting average on balls in play for a team who had the second fewest defensive runs saved, and fourth fewest outs above average. Those were all with the White Sox, and probably the ones that the Dodgers took advantage of. I wouldn’t really consider ERA+ a perpherial. It’s just another way to look at ERA.
He pitched 10 innings for the Dodgers last season lol.
Interesting, isn’t it, how players thrive once they get away from the White Sox organization. I know Giolito didn’t do well except for one game with Cleveland, but Abreu, Lopez and Kelly had or will have much better careers now that they have gotten iff the Titanic. (and don’t throw analytics at me. I’ve got enough garbage to take to the dumpster.)
90s Kelly’s best year was 2013 as a starter for the Cardinals. Unfortunately he forgot how to pitch and Allen Craig forgot how to hit when Boston traded John Lackey for them. His comment was correct. Kelly has always had good stuff and his underlying stats in Chicago proved it. The Dodgers did not turn him into a bullpen stud. They just have a far better defense than the White Sox was putting on the field.
@Avenger Abreu just had worst season of his career. First season away from the Sox.
Respectfully those are periphery stats those are results
Total ashat knee jerk response. Good luck rooting on Jose Abreu to have better years in Houston (who are already rueing the bonanza contract they gave him) than the nine years he put up in Chicago as he enters the back nine of his career. You’ve officially jumped the shark with this one
whip and era + are not peripherals
FIP , Sierra era , k/bb ratios are peripherals
you are still in the 1980ies
“The good perpherials include”
But what about that BB/9 in Chicago? Terrible. I guess thats not an important stat, when cherrypicking the ‘good perpherials’.
Thats the problem with modern stats. There’s a million of them. If you want to say someone is good or bad, just look around and find the ones that make your argument. FIP, Exit Velocity, BB/9, K/9, groundball rate, barrel rate, sweet spot percentage, spin rate. I could go on all day.
Just pick the points that make your argument and avoid the BB/9 and other stats that dont.
Look, you said “. Whatever ‘good peripherals’ that he’s seeing, the Dodgers took and translated them into results. Which is my point.” I’m just pointing out the said peripherials that the Dodgers took and translated into better results.
Also, walk rate and WHIP were legitimatley the only peripherials he was below average in for the White Sox in 2022 and 2023. I’m not saying it isn’t important, I’m just saying that he was well above average in multiple other stats.
It sounds more like you’re cherrypicking, taking only one stat and making a whole point out of it, in this case being BB/9. I listed eight different numbers: FIP, xFIP, SIERA, exit velocity, ground ball rate, strikeout rate, home run rate, BABIP. Here’s two more for good measure: 5.5% barrel rate and 35.5% hard hit rate, the former well above the league average and the latter being slightly better than average.
RSmith, did Joe Kelly sleep with your wife or something?
Fip and Siera are so 1990s. Outdated as well.
He was really good in St. Louis too before that. He’s always been a good pitcher.
“He was really good in St. Louis too before that. He’s always been a good pitcher.”
When he was a 25 yo starter? Sure. But then several years passed.
I specifically said “take mediocre relievers . . . ”
Age/team/ERA:
30 —- Bos —- 4.39
31 —- LAD —- 4.56
32 —- LAD —- 1.80
33 —- LAD —- 2.86
34 —- CHW — 6.80
35 —- CHW — 4.97
35 —- LAD —- 1.74
You place too much value on ERA.
You conveniently start your list at age 30 the year after one the 2 best seasons of his career. Probably purely coincidental….
Ironically, I’d argue, 2020 was his worst season with the Dodgers. Despite the ERA.
judging relievers based on season by season era is whimsical
“You place too much value on ERA”
Lol. Runs allowed, why would that be important for a pitcher?
Others giving stats avoiding runs and whip seems to be cherrypicking.
Because I’m more interested in “inherited runners scored” and bb/9 for a late innings reliever.
Era can be subjective just by managers picking his spots better, the defense behind him, the weather.
Pure stuff is what matters to teams, results aren’t necessarily gospel because teams know that baseball is going to baseball.
Teams saw Alec Mills pitch a no hitter, but was there a frenzy to obtain his services?
You keep saying other people are cherrypicking when you only want to focus on two or three stats: ERA, WHIP, and walk rate.
For relief pitchers who throw such a minimal amount of innings, ERA is not the best stat to look at.
But you see, smart people believe that every batted ball is pure luck if it doesn’t clear the fences. And you’re an idiot if you don’t believe that throwing out 80% of the data points is the correct way to view pitchers’ values.
Once John Farrell was able to convince Kelly he was no starter, things got better.
He was already on the way to being a pretty good reliever in Boston the 2 years before he was a Dodger. Yet I agree that he really had his best either years or partial seaons as a Blue man. I wouldn’t totallly oversell the Dodgers as “reliever whisperers” though as they have had some stinkers like most teams.
It helps that the fans love Kelly and he seems to feed off of the Mariachi Joe moniker
Mediocre division maybe?
Kelly has always run hot and cold. His first season with the Dodgers was pretty awful, especially the first half. He’s been good when he can stay in the zone, but subject to bouts of command issues.
Joe Kelly was a huge reason why we won in 2018, especially when Kimbrel struggled down the stretch. He had some bad years but was not mediocre overall.
Again poor Brais… what’s a guy gotta do!!!
Guys when should I be worried about this rash?!
The ChiSox turned good pitchers into mediocre ones.
The Guardians were 1st runner up for Kelly
you know who else does it? the yankees!!!!!
Dodgers are really trying to save.
Declined option for $9.5 mil
Paid $1 mil buyout
Signed for $ 8 mil
Savings of $500,000
Kelly was the smart stooge! Nyuk, Nyuk.
Surprised they paid him that much given injuries and spotty performances. Would have thought it would be closer to $6mm. Still a plus arm in the bullpen. When he has his pitches working he can dominate.
The Rays do this a lot too.
Too bad Los Karens couldn’t turn Joe Karen Kelly into a man instead of the baby he is.
If you’re gonna give him a name like that it should be Josephine Karen Kslly
Great! While the Braves were doing this the Dodgers were finding ways to structure an Ohtani contract where they will essentially get him for free. How you ask? Let’s run through it
Recent estimates mentioned Ohtani accounted for $25 mil in revenue for the Angels. Dodgers are more popular and expect to generate more off him, but I’ll even use an ultra conservative $30 mil generated (it will probably be more).
Ohtani’s contract is structured so they really aren’t paying him anything for 10 years, so the Dodgers will basically collect $300 mil in revenue off him more or less without paying him anything. But you also have to remember they can invest as they collect. The interest compounded over this period as they add $30 mil more revenue off him each season brings the total to $475 million. This is before they pay him much of anything (ok technically $10 mil will be paid since he gets $2 mil per season).
From there they start to pay him, but they still have this lump sum to accumulate interest while they pay him. I used a retirement withdrawal calculator for this part, but basically if you start with 465 million at a 10% interest rate and want to make it last 10 years you can effectively withdraw $68.8 million each year before hitting 0 at the 10 year mark. It aligns almost perfectly with what they will be “withdrawing” to pay Ohtani his contract after he’s done playing for them.
The Dodgers played all of us. Props to them. The question is what were the Braves doing while the Dodgers were doing all this? Signing minor league contracts and finalizing their coach roster. Awesome….
Also I used a very conservative $30 mil of revenue generated from the Ohtani factor for LAD each year. In reality they will probably bank more off him and make more than they’ll pay him in the long run of all this. Every single franchise took a huge L on this one, not just from a missed opportunity for the best player in baseball but also to rake in more cash than they’ll pay out to a single player.
not syndergaard. Guess he was unfixable…
Great move, he going to be a lot better with us than he was in Chicago
His FIP was like 3.10 with the Sox lol
” mediocre division maybe”…Do you mean the NL west, the division that has the most World Series wins the last 15 yrs?….Or do you mean the NL West that had two teams win 106+ games just 3 yrs ago?..Or perhaps you mean the NL West that just had the Arizona Diamondbacks in this year’s World Series?
Mlb fan don’t be afraid to say the division thst had a team in the NLCS in 22 as well.
MLBFan
1) None of those things have anything to do with how good the division will be this year.
2) That doesn’t appear in the article. Maybe it was removed.
“Will be this year”..Since I’ve no crystal ball, I’m not really projecting how the division will do this year. I’m merely commenting on how good it’s been in the past. You can make a solid case that the NL West has been the best division the last 15+ years. My main point is, it’s hard and inaccurate to call the NL West “mediocre”.
mlbf
““Will be this year”..Since I’ve no crystal ball, I’m not really projecting how the division will do this year.”
If your argument is that you can’t tell good teams from bad teams other than by looking at their record, well, you’d know that better than I
What happened 15 years ago isn’t relevant when discussing how a team looks for the coming year.
Sorry, but the WS tournament is won by a team and not a division. It shows the strength (and a degree of luck/timing) of a team, not of a division. The same goes for 106 win seasons and number of teams with 106 wins.
If you want to determine how strong a division is, why not look at the division collective regular season record? I quickly added up the W/L averages for each division: AL East 2.772, NL East 2.618, NL West 2.494, NL Central an almost identical 2.493, AL West 2.415 and AL Central 2.210. If a division won as many games as they lost, their score would be 2.500. This is only one way of looking at the strength of a division and it is imperfect as are all the other methods, but it does give a decent idea of how strong a division is. It also suggests that the NL West was in the middle of the pack, about average and average is a synonym for mediocre.
I live in Arizona and, in my view, the D-backs did not deserve to be in the World Series. I subscribe to the apparently antiquated idea that the World Series should be about excellence and not about squeaking into the tournament and getting lucky/hot at the right time.
Skeptic – Good job!
Really all you need to do is add up the number of wins in each division, or look at the win percentage for each division. How a division’s teams does against non-divisional teams is what it’s all about. Keep it simple.
Certainly by just glancing at the standings each year, you can see a pattern. For instance last year the Dodgers won 111 games, but there was only one other team in the division with a winning record.
This year the Dodgers won 100 games, but were they really that good? Nope, they had a .654 winning percentage against the division and just a .600 winning percentage against everyone else.
Dodgers were “only” .600 against the rest of MLB teams, those outside the NL West.
Yeah, they only benefited from a weak division, what with the 97 win pace against everyone else.
Love this signing. Love this guy. He’s meant to be a Dodger until he retires. The atttude he brings alone is something I felt the team lacked before trading for him. Him and Kike both were great pickups because of the energy they both bring. Hope they bring Kike back next.
Yeah, both signings worked out really well for them last season LOL
Are you saying they didn’t?
You catch on quick…
Sorry, it just seemed odd you’d say that considering they both contributed quite a bit after being acquired by the Dodgers. In particular, Kelly pitched to an era in the 1’s and punched out 19 in 10 innings. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt though since you clearly don’t watch Dodgers games.
Their contributions made no difference in the end; hope this helps.
I’d love to see you dig in the box and face his wayward heat.
Chill with your Joe Kelly fantasies, yikes!
Joe Kelly fight club
Correa pulled a hammy after trying to sprint toward that club
Too bad Kelly was scared behind the other club members.
> Correa pulled a hammy after
> trying to sprint toward that club
Byron Buxton injury—
Strained oblique laughing at that one
Correa & Buxton pull a hammy or oblique eating their morning oatmeal.
Cry Baby Joey! Little boy who talks big, starts the fight talking, then hides behind everyone else.
He’s not someone I trust in the postseason.
The gif of his pusss face to Correa will continue to be my fantasy baseball team logo
If Joe Kelly was a dog he’d be a chihuahua
What’s wrong with that? The little guy who fights like crazy? I am sure he would probably like being called that. It’s better then being called a psychotic pit bull or something.
(And I like that you think he is chihuahua)
Subatomic….it’s time for your PRN
Kelly is a dawg that every fan base would love to have on their team.
@clippers @slidepiece
He strikes me as being more of a pantomime villain rather than a dog. Appropriate he got some goodies before Christmas. And yes, he’s a decent higher leverage reliever.
I support this statement. Joe Kelly couldn’t beat up the karate class dojo kids that Kramer was dominating.
Not bad…
His contract terms haven’t been reported yet…
probably $6-7m per year, not much of an overpay at all.
What’s the overpay? Sounds like you have insider info on what he’s re-signing for since it’s not known publicly or mentioned above.
Kelly might win the “biggest personality relative to on-field performance” award among active MLB players. He brings such a wild energy to any club, I’ll always love him for his hijinks in Boston.
Why? the guy’s a gas can
Flat fastball pyromaniac
He will have a great first 6 weeks and then be terrible or hurt.
VCTM
“Big overpay”
Definite knowledgeable take here
VCTM
“35 and injury prone is enough for me.”
Simple thoughts für simple minds
VCTM
“Look in the mirror genius Kelly injury prone most of career”.
Again. Simple thoughts for simple intellects.
What about him being injury prone means that he’s overpaid considering you don’t know what he’s being paid
RE VCTM
Reported and muted
Its going to be under his option obviously which was 9 million. Not even possible to be an overpay.
@vince…. “Hurt a lot,” seems to be something you know a bit about….is it mostly above shoulders for you?
8 mill difference on the option year since he was bought out for 1mil.
I still want a Joe Kelly-face shirt.
Probably reading the fine print on the contract. That’s why it’s very close to being signed.
I love Dodger fans claiming Joe Kelly as their own. It’s a pretty good example of how loosely that fan base follows MLB.
Every Dodger remembers the pussface, none of them remember the 6 scoreless innings and 60% strikeout rate he put on them in the 2018 World Series.
I’m a longtime LA native and huge Dodger fan, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out the appallingly low baseball IQ our fan base sports. It’s readily apparent at the ball games as well as the various forums around the internet.
What do you mean “claim him as their own”. You can’t like a player who wasn’t homegrown? Every fan remembers the 2018 World Series. But are they not allowed to sign free agents? By your logic Broncos fans should hate Russell Wilson because he beat team in the Super Bowl years ago
I remember 2018 and I also remember Kelly intentionally drilling Hanley Ramirez in the ribs when he was on the Cards. Baseball has a short memory.
You can go back a little further to game 1 of the NLCS in 2013. I’m just glad that there’s almost no chance that he’ll break any Dodgers ribs this year.
For this very reason, I would have preferred that Andrew not re-sign Kelly
One of the most cringe players in the game today. Perfect fit for this team.
@Neon
You must be a gnats fan or madre fan?
My reaction looks like the Vince McMshon meme, but out of orde
“Dodgers” – interest piqued
“close” + interest intensifies
“to signing” – super interested
“Joe Kelly” – meh, ok
99scf
“I love Dodger fans claiming Joe Kelly as their own. It’s a pretty good example of how loosely that fan base follows MLB.
Every Dodger remembers the pussface, none of them remember the 6 scoreless innings and 60% strikeout rate he put on them in the 2018 World Series.”
Yes. They’d definitely want him on the team more if he’d sucked in that series. Makes a ton of sense.
Dodgers haven’t improved their team this offseason. So far. Still time to acquire pieces.
any time you add a proven pitcher with a winning track record that throws100 mph you’ve improved the team.
Yeah, slackers, the off season is almost over [ looks at calendar ] before the Winter Meetings have even started.
Yes, still time to make acquisitions. Meanwhile they’ve spent a lot of money re-acquiring guys they should have let walk but hey, first round knockout next October is the motto (checks history).
Well, this certainly isn’t moving my needle on Winter Meeting Eve.
A whole article on their bullpen being a strength last year and not one word on their best reliever… poor Brais… what’s a guy gotta do…
He would have been a good addition to the Cardinals bullpen. Oh well maybe Jordon Hicks will want to come home
If it’s a one year lower base with incentives to account for injury history….
then Nice!
Who drops from the 40-man or is a trade coming? If there is not trade, I suppose it’s Varland or Hudson. Guessing Varland – who I imagine would get another chance somewhere via Rule 5 draft.
Likely Varland. Maybe I missed news on Hudson, but I thought he was still weighing to retire or to try another comeback.
The Athletic is reporting g that it’s a 3 year deal.
I see that but no way is that accurate. Unless it’s a three year for a total of three million all incentive deal! Everyone else is reporting a one-year.
Joke Ellie
“Big overpay”.
When you have no real takes, just go negative and attack the team, owner or GM as foolish with money or “cheap”, right?
lol sounds like politics to me … who needs facts just say it before anyone knows anything and attack so it has to be true. control the narrative?
and hader pitched only 12 inning more and got 14M and he going to get probably 21M next season and probably be around the same number of innings. Horrible argument.
but the biggest overpay was probably vince coleman now thats someone that was insanely injury prone. 10 years of missing atleast 1/3 of the season mostly he was missing 1/2 the season. Shoot he probably makes Stanton look like the epitome of health.
Your name is incomplete (fittingly) on the app.
Glad that Kelly is back. Now go out and bring Justin Turner back to finish his career here in Dodger Blue‼️
This dude is such a punchable troll
Just glad the Dodgers took him back, I can see the ‘brain trust’ in Chicago trying to bring him back otherwise.
Count me among the army of Dodgers fans who just love this guy to a degree that can’t be purely statistically justified. Same with Kiké; the game makes me just a little bit happier when I see them on the screen.
So guess no Ohtani for Dodgers since Kelly already has his uniform number.
Forget his stats. There is not another teammate I’d rather have. Dude was ready to fight the Yankees and Astros. he’d have a lifetime contract if I owned a team.
Joe Kelly is still a wuss.
If he passes the physical, can he pass the mental?
I wanted Ryan Brasier to return. I hope this move doesn’t preclude that. Brasier will probably end up getting a multiyear deal elsewhere.
Finally someone else who knows talent!!! Hop on board plenty of room on my wagon!!!
Of course this piece of human garbage re signs he knows he can’t cut it anywhere else and the Dodgers can buy whoever the heck they want
Nitpicking,but… if he resigns as a free agent, is that really considered a third “stint” if it’s continuous?
Would be third contract, so I would say, yes.
Technically on and off team roster 3 times.
So Clayton Kershaw, despite playing for no other major league teams, is in his 3rd or 4th “different stint” with the Dodgers?
In the NPB, it is traditional that the ace pitcher is assigned #18. If the Dodgers are fortunate enough to land Shohei, the Dodgers clubhouse manager should offer it to him before asking Joe to surrender his #17. I think Vargas was #18 when he was on the big league club so there shouldn’t be any problem with that. Let Mariachi Joe keep his number.
@fffbbb – You forget that Trout wears the number Ohtani prefers.
great move for their first round elimination
Does this mean the Dodgers are out on Ohtani? Since Joe Kelly wears #17?
The face of the Dodgers
He must really love it there considering how much they Jack him around
So wait a minute…His option was for 9.5 million, they bought him out for 1 million, then spent 8 million? All that work to save 500k?!
My exact thoughts.
Something doesn’t add up, literally. Perhaps the $8mm figure is too high. Hard to imagine Friedman would pay that much for a season of injury prone Joe Kelly.
That 500k could be enough to keep them under the tax. Look at the Angels from last year, made it under by a hair
I am not sorry to see any of these guys go. I just hope they plan on using the payroll savings on a player that is worth the money..
Yikes. Surprised at the amount of 8 million if not of it is based on innings incentives. Feels like a premium to get a one-year deal done but that’s all Kelly should be getting at this point so not sure why they’d have to pay a premium. Or file another one under Friedman likes to pay injured relievers too much money.
Kelly’s stuff is electric. But yeah, he can go on some wild streaks. I remember during the 2020 season, he threw ~20 curveball in a row in an outing. Bizarre. Might have been because he was injured. Here’s hoping he’ll stay healthy for a deep playoff run.
Saved a cool $500K and, if I’m not mistaken, $1.5 million in AAV for this year’s team salary.
Sounds like an overpay for an injury prone reliever. Should have resigned Braiser and Miller.
Bulldog
The half dozen people that bought Joe Kelly’s #17 jersey are gonna be mad it’s irrelevant jersey now. Wonder if the team store at Dodgers Stadium would exchange it for an Ohtani jersey or whatever number Charlie Kelly’s half brother chooses.
I read somewhere that #18 is symbolically awarded to the ace pitcher on NPB clubs. The Dodgers should respectfully offer this to Shohei first. If he insists on #17, maybe Joe can trade it for a new Porsche.
I guess we’ll see once they make it official with the press conference
All that to save 500K when you just signed Ohtani for 700 million?? Seriously??
Coop, it is beyond laughable for sure! I had to do the math 6 times to make sure I was really understanding everything correctly!
Saved 500k, gotta penny pinch where you can.
Well, they saved enough money to pay Ohtani’s salary for one game. Baby steps.
Joe Kelly fight club!!!!!!
Maybe this one has significant deferred payments too. Present value could be a lot lower and the Dodgers saved significant coin. 😀