The Rangers have taken another upside shot in the rotation, signing Tyler Mahle to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $22MM guarantee for the ISE Baseball client, who can earn up to $5MM more in bonuses depending on his 2025 innings tally. He will have a salary of $5.5MM in 2024 and $16.5MM in 2025, and the deal comes with a limited no-trade clause. He’ll miss the start of the ’24 season as he completes his rehab from last season’s Tommy John surgery. Texas has two additional openings on the 40-man roster.
Mahle spent a season and a half with the Twins. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds at the 2022 trade deadline. It turned out to be one of the more lopsided deadline deals of the past couple summers. Cincinnati acquired Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and prospect Steve Hajjar, whom they subsequently flipped to the Guardians as part of a deal for Will Benson.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, injuries ruined their end of the deal. Mahle landed on the injured list within a few weeks of his acquisition as a result of shoulder inflammation. He returned, pitched once, then went back on the IL for the remainder of the season. Mahle looked back to form early in 2023, working to a 3.16 ERA over five starts. He suffered an elbow injury during his outing on April 27 and underwent the Tommy John procedure a couple weeks later.
That ended his season and ultimately, his tenure with the Twins. Given the approximate 14-month recovery timeline often associated with TJS rehab, he could return sometime around the All-Star Break. That would put Mahle on a similar trajectory as Jacob deGrom, who underwent the same surgery around four weeks later.
While Mahle wouldn’t bring the same level of upside as deGrom, he’d be a high-ceiling addition in his own right. The 29-year-old developed into a quality mid-rotation starter late in his time in Cincinnati. Between 2020 and the ’22 deadline, he worked to a 3.93 ERA in 332 innings spanning 62 appearances. Mahle punched out an above-average 27.4% of batters faced over that stretch against a manageable 8.9% walk rate. Despite pitching in a difficult home park, he allowed only 1.1 home runs per nine innings.
Mahle’s velocity has been down a bit over the past two seasons, which isn’t surprising given the arm issues. In 2021, he averaged 94 MPH on his four-seam with a plus cutter/slider that sat around 87 MPH. Mahle has a splitter to deploy against left-handed hitters and has posted neutral platoon numbers over his career.
If he can recapture his pre-surgery form, Mahle would fit into the middle or back end of a quality Texas rotation. The Rangers haven’t been shy about taking on injury risk to pursue high-upside starters. deGrom was the prime example, of course, but each of Mahle, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney were talented fliers in the middle tiers of the starting pitching market.
Max Scherzer anchors the season-opening staff. Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney and Dane Dunning project to fill out the remainder of the Opening Day five. Texas should have more clarity on the respective health statuses of deGrom and Mahle as next summer’s trade deadline approaches.
Mahle’s contract narrowly tops MLBTR’s two-year, $20MM prediction. It’s just north of the $20MM guarantee secured by Rockies right-hander Germán Márquez, a similar caliber of pitcher who signed for two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. Mahle, who turned 29 in September, is on track to get back to free agency in advance of his age-31 season in 2026.
The $11MM average annual value brings the Rangers’ competitive balance tax number to roughly $232MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s just below next season’s $237MM base threshold. Texas carried an approximate $252MM luxury tax number last season. While their championship run surely brought in a fair amount of playoff revenue, the organization is also facing some uncertainty about its local television rights contract. GM Chris Young indicated at the Winter Meetings that the team would be a little quieter in free agency than they’d been in the past few offseasons.
Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $22MM guarantee and $5MM in performance bonuses. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the specific annual breakdown and limited no-trade.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Think I’m going 2/50 this year ugh.
I always say players should take less upfront but clear more over all and sign in places like texas amd Florida. In Canada and California they are taxed right at 50% versus around 37% 8n Florida and Texas. So his 22m contract is equal to 27.72M in canada and California.(in Canada there is a special tax provision were they can out so much money away tax free, this is something they use to help them sign players)
Yeah, but then you’d have to live in Texas or Florida. Big ooof
Where do you live?
Making this discussion political hurts everyone as we look to sports as an alternative. I though do believe tax levels and threshold limits should include a cost of living kicker (like federal taxes should in my view) to level the field. $100k or $10m in one area is not the same as in another.
Newfoundland Canada. Its North Americas most easter point, its am island. The vikings landed here im about 1004AD
You live there in season and 99% of your money is made there so i would imagine thats good enough. If not your pay taxes either split between 2 States 50/50 or some other mechanism were they calculate it. I mean people own summer homes, cabins, go invocation etc. im sure they can figure kut easier how to say i work there, my kids go to school there, but i travel in the offseason
forbes.com/home-improvement/features/states-move-t…
More people move to Texas and Florida than any other states in the country. For obvious reasons. This is the part where the “cool guy” walks away.
At the corner of happy and healthy.
Wouldn’t Semisopochnoi, which sits on the other side of the 180th Meridian, be the farthest point East?
I do think it’s funny how I made an inherently non=political statement just making fun of two states I find to be pretty icky. Then a bunch of dorks and dweebs try to make this political. Florida and Texas both have awful pizza btw.
@Cool Guy
That, we can agree on.
New York pizza for the win.
These numbers were bases on a 1M annual income and 70M annual and the numbers changed my less then 0.05%. also its easy to search goole for how much am i taxes on 1M/70m in canada, texas, California, Wisconsin Etc.
GREAT MOVE
Noooooo! That $ shpuld be used on a reliever.
I’m sure they’re not finished
Mahle is an under-the-radar pitcher. He had a solid 2021 and a decent 2022. Would’ve done something in 23 if he didn’t get hurt.
Still recovering from TJ, so he may make appearances in relief before getting a start.
He will end up being a reliever lol
Twins gave up Steer and CES for this guy to make 9 starts for them. Ouch
And traded Hajjar for Benson. What a trade!
Feel bad for the Twins they go for it, and get screwed by unfortunate events for the most part.
I don’t. Mahle had missed starts just prior to the trade and the Twins didn’t do any due diligence on him.
Yup they heard his name the weekend before and were like “let’s get him”
They didn’t look into his history or run any kind of physical.
All trades are pending a physical. They more likely just misread the records or decided the risk was worth it at the time. CES was a stud even then as he previously lived with my cousin who told me about him previously (I had never heard of him at the time…).
Nice signing.
If he’s healthy, it could be. If he only pitches 25 innings like last year, not so much.
Yeah, that deGrom signing has done wonders for them, too. Is Texas following the LAD play book for signing injured pitchers?
The Rangers won all six of deGrom’s starts last season. Without every one of those victories, they don’t make the playoffs and don’t have a “World Series champions” banner to hang in April.
Hopefully deGrom will get and stay healthy (unlikely, I know), but he earned his World Series ring with his limited contributions in Year 1.
Good sign.
He’s probably in line for 2 years/$25M, Along the lines of Stripling and Manaea; coming off sub-par to average year.
Texas is a big ballpark now so as long as he keeps the ball down he will be fine.
Wait, why would he have to keep the ball down now, if he’s in a bigger park? That said, it is usually a better idea. But I would say, he can let his pitches eat more, and not nibble.
Low-key, this could be a great move. Mahle has good stuff and he’s shown it off in the past couple of seasons. Rangers would have a great rotation if he returns to form.
Not sure they have a single starter who can stay healthy an entire season, so not sure they have a rotation to be counted on lol
They did ok this year
they had Jordan Montgomery…
Guy won’t pitch til July…Bad choice in signing Mahle he is a #5 starter at best..really a long relief guy for 11 million a year plus….
He’s significantly better than a number 5 guy when healthy
Teams seem to keep thinking that, but his career stats disagree totally. My bet is he will continue to be a bust, and break more wrists with his wildness like he did Buxtons. He did get his money for doing nothing for the Twins. We will see if he actually earns it with the Rangers.
50/50 for him to pitch at all in 2024. He underwent TJ May 23rd of this past season. Typical TJ recovery is 15-18 months.
At 15 months, Mahle is back just before September, and probably not stretched out more than 3.0 innings.
If Mahle doesn’t have any setbacks he should be able to begin building up his arm before a midseason rehab assignment until he’s ready to get called back up. Could be like a trade deadline acquisition if everything works out.
One overlooked area of Mahle’s game:
He sports a 70 grade porn stache.
Holy crap I hate being an Astros fan. Rangers just continue to bolster their team and they sit back and act like it’s 2013.
We haven’t signed anyone good lol I know we beat yall in the playoffs but frankly I like alot about your team more than texas
I’m being dramatic for the most part. I think Bochy was definitely the better manager and it was a great series.
Victor Caratini not doing it for you?
Haha. I’m at least thankful for the small upgrade from Maldonado.
Thought the Twins would re-sign him to try to salvage that lopsided trade
Maybe in a different season when payroll isn’t an issue. They’ve done similar deals in the past, Paddack and Pineda
Twins have rotation depth without spending more money on a guy that they already didn’t get their money’s worth out of.
The Twins have zero rotation depth. They don’t even have a legit #5 starter right now.
Lopez/Ryan/Ober/Paddack/Varland/Winder/Woods-Richardson/Balazovic/Festa/Canterino
They aren’t exactly barren either
…I’m not sure if you’re being serious or not.
Lopez – great.
Ryan – carried a 5+ ERA/FIP in the second half. He’s a 4.00 ERA/FIP/xFIP career guy.
Ober – same type of back rotation starter as Ryan.
Paddack has pitched 180 innings in the past 4 years. Has never had an ERA and FIP below like 3.95 in the same season.
Varland was in the bullpen last year because that’s where his stuff played.
Winder even struggled as a mid reliever the Twins left off the playoff roster. His status as a prospect starter is over.
Woods-Richardson carried, what, a 6.00 ERA in AAA last year? Has serious control issues.
Balazovic has been permanently moved to the bullpen with clarity on that from the front office.
Festa carried a 6.5 BB/9 in AAA, but sure, he could be in the rotation at the end of the year if things work out.
Canterino…. He hasn’t pitched more than 37 innings in a season since 2019’s college days and he’s a26. He’ll need 2 years to stretch out into a starter role.
Anybody can look at prospect ranks
Going the depth route again. Coming off TJ and back mid season is making me think he won’t be much help BUT can’t be worse than Perez.
Padres and Rangers: 2024 World Series…..You saw it here, first. Signed- Padres Team Captain and starting DH (Matthew “Carp” Carpenter).
He just looks like a “Matthew Carpenter” doesn’t he?
I don’t get it…..
The mustache is certainly what gives away the resemblance to Carpenter.
This photo is of Matthew Carpenter….. As in the same guy who is the DH and team captain of the Fathers……you serious?
Yes it is. Point being that his name and appearance fit eachother perfectly.
I get it now. Nice observation sfes.
Strange. They seem to like hurt pitchers.
Duffy didn’t even play for them in 2023. Could do something in 2024 if he gets the chance.
Guys were saying this is how much money Brandon Woodruff would .make. Why not get him instead? They have similar timelines, and Brandon is way better.
Probably announce a 3 year deal with an opt-out after 2025 tomorrow. $6 million 2024, $14 million 2025, $25 million 2026.
Interesting signing, but this could work out…
I remember during Covid times (2020) Tyler ordering legal cannabis from a dispensary in Orange County. Him and Matt Chapman!
Pot heads!! I guess it’s allowed under the rules. Heard Bellinger is perma-stoned.
I believe in 2020 it was not allowed yet. Correct me if I’m wrong lol. Wouldn’t doubt it if Bellinger still uses quick fix piss tests haha
I guess that takes them out of the Montgomery race.
I think Montgomery priced himself out of their comfort zone with how well he performed for them after being acquired from the Cardinals. Montgomery is a rock solid mid-rotation starter, but I believe he’s going to end up being quite overpaid. Mahle has the talent to be as good as Monty when fully healthy. And this move allows them to spend some more money on the bullpen, as well.
It’s an interesting plan. Sign a lot of quality veteran arms that are hurt, if they all get and stay healthy then they have mid season trade bait, if they don’t stay healthy someone should come back and plug the hole. A healthy Degrom sherzer eovaldi as a post season rotation tho. Thats scary.
Unless they are healthy, but bad. Scherzer is getting older. Multiple TJs on deGrom. Evoldi is better in playoffs than regular season. Results are not guaranteed. Does look nice on paper right now.
Wow, Texas loves these injury prone SPs.
Were you at Arte?!
Too expensive for Arte, still.
I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for Arte to sign any starting pitching. An over priced, over the hill bat but not starting pitching.
The Angels will likely roll into next season with some combination of Anderson/Sandoval/Detmers/Canning/Silseth/Suarez as their rotation
The Twins gave up the farm for him. I bet they would take back that trade any day. Horrible deal for the Twins
And crickets from the Mariners.
How did they manage to go from “America’s team” that everyone across the country was rooting for last year, to “we’re not even as newsworthy as the A’s” now?
Nevermind, I know how. My flex pass membership refund is in the works. Hope you choke on the money you saved on Geno, Stanton.
Starting pitching is one thing the Mariners actually have
But they do not have a lineup. They’ve taken iffy strikeout-prone bats and turned them into outright holes, and done nothing to replace them. They’re shrinking payroll when they should be expanding. The org is screwing all the fans over.
Well I guess this means adios to Jordan Montgomery. Thanks for championship.
I would love to see Monty come back to the Bronx. Fans were definitely pissed when Cashman traded him away, and while we did like Bader, the impressive postseason pitching made us want Monty back all the more.
That trade absolutely flummoxed me
Sneaky fantasy pick next year
Are you aware he’s injured and won’t pitch until the 2nd half, at the earliest?
No.
You should play in his league.
Poor Rangers. They bought a LEMON this time.
I like this move by the Champs.
Rangers should adopt a no dick broom policy so he shaves that mustache.
This team is starting to piss me off now. What are they even thinking… 11 million a year for a guy who is getting that first 11million for free since he likely won’t be back till the end of the year. Meanwhile we haven’t addressed the DH or any GOOD relievers to fix the biggest issue that’s the bullpen. Yes we won a championship, but we can’t just sit back and hope no one else gets better.
CY is incompetent. They love him because he is from Princeton, which is considered smart within baseball somehow. The fool doesn’t even trade or go for the real area of weakness (the bp) and then spends like a thief. He got lucky big time in 2023 that Texas players all had career years or above average years. If that BP he blew off all offseason and during the trade deadline were any worse, Texas would have missed the playoffs entirely. Give anyone a max budget and you should expect a playoff team. I do hope he signs relievers, but he may be the dumbest executive I have known of.
There is a streak of baseball people -cough cough Dombrowski cough cough- that do not value bullpen arms. They get scraps together and see if anyone sticks. You can do that if you have a few really good/elite type relievers, but you can’t keep that up and expect much.
What???
He brings in a hof manager that goes against the “norm” of other managers and does intelligent things like playing the hot hand during the season until they cool down, pulling starting pitching early when it’s obvious they don’t have their stuff that day, using their entire bench to keep them fresh, etc
He brought in one of the best pitching coaches in the league in Mike maddux
His main focus is pitching. How many times did the fans in the stands say “we have enough pitching” and then he keeps adding? Eovaldi, Montgomery, scherzer, degrom, Heaney. They needed them all to win this year
I’m extremely happy to have him as the gm. He’s one of the few that really follows through with “you never have enough pitching”
There are still 3 months before the season starts. He’ll get more bullpen (he’s already added a piece in Yates)
“Incompetent”??? I don’t get it
It’ll count for $11MM against the luxury tax but it’s certainly not structured that way. It’s probably like $2MM this year and $20MM next year. So they’ve only added a couple million to their books for the upcoming season.
Much better to sign a guy coming back from tj vs a guy heading towards needing tj. Fair enough contract.
Ten bucks says this guy never pitches competitive ball again.
I’ll take that and give you 5-1