The Red Sox are exploring trades involving their young outfielders, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. While Speier doesn’t identify anyone who is specifically part of talks, the Sox have a few intriguing possibilities.
Of the six primary outfielders on the 40-man roster, three have yet to qualify for arbitration: Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela. Duran has a little under two years of MLB service, while Abreu and Rafaela made their MLB debuts late in the 2023 campaign.
Other clubs will likely value that trio in different orders. They’ve each shown promise, but none is a finished product. Duran, who turned 27 in September and has appeared in parts of three big league campaigns, might offer the most certainty. He’s nevertheless a potentially divisive evaluation, as he took a step forward in 2023 after significant struggles in his first two MLB looks.
The left-handed hitter is coming off an impressive .295/.346/.482 line with eight home runs over 362 plate appearances. That’s far better than the .219/.269/.354 career mark he brought into the year. Last season’s production was partially inflated by a .381 average on balls in play that he’s unlikely to maintain. If he’s going to hit near .300 again, he’ll likely need to trim a 24.9% strikeout rate that’s a few percentage points higher than the league average. Duran has cut his whiffs with each progressive season, so it’s certainly not out of the question he continues to develop offensively, but some clubs could have reservations about an aggressive approach.
It’s a similar story defensively. Duran is an elite athlete and runner. That has shown up on the bases, where he went 24-26 in stolen base attempts, but hasn’t translated into strong defensive reviews. Public metrics have graded him as a middling center fielder, albeit to varying degrees. Statcast has pegged Duran two runs below par in nearly 1200 career innings. Defensive Runs Saved has been harsher, estimating him 19 runs below average. A team that feels he is a capable or better defender in center would be much more bullish than one that projects him as a left fielder — where he doesn’t have prototypical corner outfield power.
Abreu faces similar questions about his ideal defensive spot. He has played all three positions in the minors. During his MLB debut, he started eight games in left and 12 in center. Baseball America, which recently slotted him as the #6 prospect in the Sox’s farm system, suggests he’s best in right. Abreu has elite arm strength but below-average speed, which makes him a tough fit in center.
The 24-year-old has posted excellent numbers throughout his minor league career. That includes a .274/.391/.539 showing through 363 plate appearances with Triple-A Worcester this year. Abreu started his big league career strong, hitting .316/.388/.474 over his first 28 contests. The Sox shielded the lefty hitter from same-handed pitchers in that look, but he flashed the strong strike zone awareness which he has shown in the minors.
Rafaela, 23, brings a polar opposite approach. He’s an extremely aggressive hitter, which MLB pitchers exploited during a 28-game debut. The Curacao native torched Triple-A pitching, running a .312/.370/.618 slash with 14 homers over 219 plate appearances.
That’s strong production for any player. It’s especially impressive for an outfielder whom most prospect evaluators forecast as a Gold Glove caliber center fielder. Rafaela can also play the middle infield, although he’s regarded as a superior defender on the grass. Baseball America recently named him the Sox’s #4 prospect.
Barring trade, Duran is a lock for an Opening Day roster spot. Abreu or Rafaela could start next season in Triple-A. It’s unlikely there’s room for all three players to open the year unless there’s an injury in Spring Training. The Sox sent a pair of minor league right-handers to St. Louis for Tyler O’Neill. He’s primarily a left fielder but capable of covering all three spots. Left fielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida is headed into the second season of a five-year deal. He’ll make $18MM annually for the next four seasons. Yoshida paired solid but unexceptional offensive production (.289/.338/.445) with subpar defense in his first MLB campaign.
Between the recent acquisition of O’Neill and Yoshida’s contract, it’s unlikely either player is traded. Rob Refsnyder rounds out the group as a righty platoon bat. He’s signed to a $1.85MM deal for next season and wouldn’t bring back a noteworthy trade return.
Speier suggests an outfielder trade could allow Boston to add pitching. Even after tonight’s agreement with Lucas Giolito, the Sox have a high-variance staff. There’s plenty of upside in a rotation that could include some combination of Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Giolito, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock, yet it’s a group that also has plenty of risk.
If Boston were to trade an outfielder for pitching, they could look to free agency to replace the lost offense. Multiple reports have tied the Sox to Teoscar Hernández in recent days. Speier confirms Boston remains interested in Hernández after adding Giolito, indicating they have the financial breathing room to go back to the open market.
I am ok with trading Rafaela as he seems to lack plate discipline. I would keep Duran and Abreu for at least one more year for a look at them.
I agree. I really hope Duran isn’t traded
I like Duran’s speed, I like speed in the game anyway
Are u insane ??? Do u watch the Sox or just make comments??? Rafaela if done right can be the next mookie if we r lucky .. has the same swing plays as mookie ,plays baseball the same way mookie does there’s a lot of similarities.. same position and definitely has the tools too be the next star.. Duran and abreu can both go without question … Duran is good but I really don’t understand all the hype u guys give this kid lmfao ur gonna see this year when he falls on his face …
Rafaela doesn’t have the Mookie bat to ball skills, no chance he’s another Mookie.
He probably meant Mookie Wilson who used to play for the Mets 😉
Mookie Wilson from 1984-1988 would not be a bad outcome if you’re a Red Sox fan.
Mookie Wilson
======
I would take that. I’d also take 6 years of prime JBJ as well.
Rafaela cannot hit anywhere close to Betts. He gives me Jackie Bradley with less offense vibes. I don’t want to go through that again. Offensively
Fanatic, it works if the rest of the lineup is strong enough (it is not) to sustain a bat like that.
Duran doesn’t give you JBJ vibes?
Duran is a terrible defender compared to jbj..so..not even a little
K/W At age 21 in AA
Betts 20/35
Rafaela 62/16
Rafaela’s K/W is about 7x than Betts. OTOH, Betts is on a HOF pace, so most comparisons will be inappropriate.
Bos85 – ‘Are you insane’
Rafaela has a 40% chase rate and strikes out a TON! He is much, much more similar to Jackie Bradley than Mookie Betts!
Boston – You’d understand Duran if you had actually watched him play. He’s a doubles machine, can turn almost any base hit into a double, steal any base with the new rules, he’s electric like prime Ellsbury.
But his (Duran’s) fielding is hard to take in CF. This team needs to get significantly better defensively. You can add all the pitching you want, but if your fielders can’t field, your pitching will seem crappy.
But his (Duran’s) fielding is hard to take in CF.
=====================
I’m not a Duran fan, but it feels like his fielding has improved, as has his hitting.
And if Cease was on the table, then so would Duran, but one of my key things here is that we have 5 years left, mostly prime years. His K/W (SSS) went from .27 (AA) to .45 (AAA) to .36 to .91. And his MLB K/W went from .10 to .22 to .27. He doesn’t have to improve that all that much to become a pretty decent hitter.
Anyone like ellsbury im good with .. and don’t tell me I don’t watch him lmfao I watch every game .. go to games actually pay attention too the sport do u?? Duran is not that good and his defense isn’t that good . That offense isn’t nowhere to b found
Are you insane? Comparing Rafaela to Mookie after a small sample size? He’s barely had any MLB playing time and here you go calling him the next Mookie Betts.
He didn’t say IS, he said could be. Probably not, but I’m sure that he meant that he’s not the one to be moved.
I was just trying to frame my response since he thought the original poster was insane and his statement wasn’t far from insane either.
Rafaela could be the next big thing but making an insane statement like that and calling someone else insane for their “could be” statements is just hypocrisy at best.
Rafaela has NO CHANCE of remotely being close to Betts. He chases everything and is closer to Dalbec as a batter than Betts. Compare their K rates.
Exactly!!
I heard Alex Verdugo is available.
Will have an MVP year in 2024, watch!
much rather sell high on Duran and trade him rather than trade Rafaela. Both Duran and Rafaela are overly aggressive but one is 27 and probably close to a finished product and the other is 23. Not to mention that both have similar flaws but at least Rafaela is an elite level defender.
Dépends on the offers – Raffa has the highest « potential » but also lowest floor. He could be a stud or a bust but is a « baby » at 23. Duran is the opposite already 27 but equally only 1 season of quality production. Personally I would move Duran but that age/control factoring in but what comes back would be prime reason. You’re not going to get Cease but a nice 3/4 SP wouldn’t go amiss or a plug n play 2B
acell10 – I have to agree with you on both points. Duran is probably pretty much what he is going to be at this point, being 27 years old. And his defense just isn’t nearly good enough for CF. Sell high I say. Even if you have to start him in AAA, I would hate to give up on Rafaela and his superior defense.
Duran is the guy that should be moved if anyone.
I don’t think Fever said that about Duran last off-season. Way to change your tune!
Duran is still a >$1M player next year. That makes him valuable to literally every team. Rafaela and Abreu are unproven, and won’t bring as much in return. But Duran is part of the problem–bad defense. The Sox’s inability to convert batted balls into outs has direct correlation to bad pitching outcomes–more pitches, shorter starts, exhausted bullpen.
OTOH, Rafaela is an outstanding CF — “most prospect evaluators forecast as a Gold Glove caliber center fielder.” Fix 2B with Drury, get Duvall back as insurance/power, and trade Duran for pitching. Get Masa off the field. Improve the defense and they’ll be way better.
Actually, I think Duran is the best guy to trade. As much as I like him, he took a step forward this year and who knows if that happens again. We waited on Dalbec and look what happened. Outfielders are easy to replace, his value is high right now, and I think he could get us some nice pieces if packaged.
I don’t see where the Sox have the depth to trade any if those guys. I would keep them all except Refsnyder.
Rafaela is an infielder originally and can play both well. O’Neill is very inconsistent and questionable anywhere but LF. Yoshida looks more like a DH.
OF is not a strength of the Red Sox.
Outfielders are easy to replace, that’s why. Good pitching isn’t.
I think Duran is gone. Though I would trade Rafaela
Package him with dalbec..call it a day
No one’s trading pitching.
The Giants would trade pitching to the Red Soxes.
What pitching? They’re trying to sign starters themselves.
We would only want either Logan Webb or Kyle Harrison
Casas for Harrison sounds good to me. We have a deal?
I would never ever trade Casas. Anyone other than Bello, Devers, Anthony, Casas, Teel, and Mayer can go in my mind.
Cle will trade at least one SP.
Marlins are always willing to trade actively from their SP depth, or at least let rumors fly. Tampa trades SP, too. Guardians always do, too.
Not anymore. Neither Miami nor Tampa has any depth to trade, only salary clearing stuff which they’ve already done. SP trade market is basically Bieber and Cease, and that’s it and probably a half dozen teams after each.
Dipoto may be calling!!
They called him. He wasn’t interested
Jose Azocar and top outfield prospect (#13 overall) Jakob Marsee in exchange for: Masataka Yoshida?
They aren’t looking to acquire outfielders…
Cronenworth and Kim for Yoshida?
Where do I sign?
How is Yoshida’s 289 BA and overall slash line “unexceptional offense”? (As the article states).
I don’t see Kim being traded. His contract is a bargain for the Padres. He’s also an excellent player.
Padres aren’t looking to add a middling offensive, $18 million, subpar defensive OF to their payroll.
Especially not for Kim.
109OPS+ at DH isn’t great
Yeah that sentence confused me as well. For the first half of the year Yoshi was at the top of the league in multiple offensive stats. He came back to earth a bit after the all star break but still was one of the best hitters on the team.
If those numbers belonged to a Yankee the writer would have said the batter “crushed” last year.
He didn’t really have a bad season. He had an obvious decline through the second half (for which he may have had genuine excuses), and that colors most people’s perceptions of his slash line. Then add that he was called “Macho Man” in Japan because of his power, which didn’t play much at all in the US. He looks like a bust to many fans.
Because his overall OPS is still below .800. Yoshida at $18m annually is another reason why Bloom deserved to be fired.
Brand new league, way more travel, and an exhausting (and outstanding) WBC; no wonder he ran out of gas. He should be much more ready for a full MLB season.
619MetroFriars – Well his OPS+ was 109. That’s a bit above average, not exceptional. Now I do hope with a year of MLB experience, he can produce closer to what he did during his first half of last season. A whole season of that would be pretty darn good.
In his defense, everyone said Yoshida was like a god in April and May and that quickly changed.
Getting Yoshida off the books is worth that
Yoshida will probably be a top 10 MVP finalist hitter this season just watch
I have an unrelated question for everyone. Who is going to be in the bullpen, because there is a long list of guys who could make it easily. The list is down below:
Brennan Bernadino
Zack Kelly
Chris Murphy
Brandon Walter
Chris Martin
Bryan Mata
Justin Slaten
Greg Weissert
Nick Pivetta
Garrett Whitlock
Tanner Houck
Kenley Jansen
Josh Winckowski
Joe Jacques
Cooper Criswell
John Schrieber
Mauricio Llovera
maybe Kutter Crawford
There may be more I’ve forgotten
Houck and Whitlock should for sure be in the pen along with Staten.
If the off season ends today, this should help narrow it down:
1. Sale
2. Giolito
3. Bello
4. Crawford
5. Houck
To be honest, that 5 looks ok. If Sale and Giolito can provide a glimpse of their past, the other 3 are good back end guys. Theres enough depth in the pen with Whitlock, the guys from the Yanks, etc to carry a skipped start or a pen game.
The issue is offense. They need protection for Devers. Casas maybe falls back a bit but hes the guy to be the #2. Yoshida will be fine. Hes a hitter flat out. Story in my opinion is done. Those occassional 3-5 games dont make up for the countless 0’ffers with 3k’s. No offense from catcher at all. Nor consistently at 2b, CF and now RF. At this point if they dont trade Yorke, bring him up. Same with Mayer. If they fail they fail. But its no worse than whats there.
I think Pivetta would be in the rotation.
All male names, I don’t understand. Don’t any of you have daughters!!!:
Are you assuming gender?
Well I don’t believe they submitted their preferred pronouns to us so that makes it even more perplexing. I’m not going to be the cup inspector either, so don’t volunteer me for that job please.
I just realized–you are wearing the trout mask replica. REC for that, but one time only. Hi to Ella Guru!
Aha! May you have a Fast & Bulbous day, and stay away from those pesky Octafish! Cheers, good times, and may your favorite team acquire some potent weapons this off-season!
I’ll have the Orange Claw Hammer, please.
Your username is very appropriate.
Thank you, that’s why I picked it !
I Forgot Zack Weiss. Add him to the list
A productive second baseman would be nice. I’ve given up on the Red Sox even trying to get offense out of a catcher…….
Almost nobody is getting offensive production out of 2b and catcher.
Huh? Loads of excellent 2B around.
I wonder if Brandon Crawford, formerly of the Giants, would consider a position change to 2B ??
Loads of offensive production out of 2b??? There are 30 MLB teams and maybe 8 offensively productive 2b. I would hardly call that loads, but that term might be subjective.
Off the top of my head, the Astros, Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks did.
Not much out there, but Merrifield is a gamer.
Could see one of the OF traded to Seattle for a young arm
They already turned us down
As they should, if we (Sox fans) were naive enough to believe in the legitimacy of these offers. Their young SP depth is much stronger than our current OF depth.
George Kirby for Refsnyder and Dalbec.
good one…you just underlined the first word of your handle.
M’s wouldn’t trade Kirby for Casas and Mayer….nor should they.
Would George Kirby for Ceddanne Rafaela, Nick Yorke, Tanner Houck, and Bobby Dalbec be any better?
I just saw on Bleacher Report a proposal: Jesus Lazardo for Marcelo Mayer & Kyle Teel. What do you guys think of that one? (I wouldn’t do that one for Kirby, would have to throw in Casas & Ceddane too.)
Maybe Kirby for Ceddane (or Duran) , Casas, Mayer, and Teel.
I would have a heart attack if I saw that trade. Luzardo for Houck, Duran and Yorke
It’s going to be Cronenworth from the Padres
Your not paying attention, he is a lefty, and they want a righty
Since they won’t spend big right now why don’t they extend casas and bello so when they become homegrown studs we aren’t heartbroken when they leave like mookie and bogey
They won’t just leave, you will garner a couple middling former top prospects in return who have adjustment issues hitting off-speed pitches along with a bad case of Tourette’s.
We are trying to GET RID of outfielders. We have 6. Though the Cronenworth fit seems like a logical one. Cronenworth and Jairo Iriarte for maybe Rob Refsnyder? Not for Rob’s Talent. We might also need to throw in a Blaze Jordan tier prospect.
Rob Refsnyder is not worth that much.
Rob is not an everyday bat, a very good platoon player and is better in the outfield then a lot of people seem to think. My guess it’s going to take a Duran or Candella to pull a decent return…
Not denying it but I don’t believe he’s worth Cronenworth and another player on his own
I meant the money is really balancing it out. For taking all of Cronenworth’s salary
I never figured the money part. I only looked at talent. You have a point then.
I wouldn’t do it if I was the Padres though
I tend to agree on value. I’m a sucker for velocity, and if Iriarte improves his control just a little, he’ll be fairly highly rated. I’m still thinking he’s an RP, but likely a high-floor, high-ceiling RP.
I would take Cro’s salary for that.
Crone had back to back 4 WAR all star seasons before a down year last year while playing a new position. He and his contract will be fine. Outside of that, I agree the framework might be there.
His contract is inexpensive, he plays 2nd base really well.
The Padres would love deal Cronenworth’s contract.
FA Gary Sanchez is average defensive C with power, no average. Cash wins.
pitching via trade will be tricky but Oakland had Blackburn, decent starter over last 2 seasons. Of course, everyone knows that and his price in trade will be inflated but you save salary on back end.
Miami may be a partner but again Boston will have to pay premium in young players. That would be for Cabrerra , Rodgers, Puk, Hoeing…not their bigger guns.
Pitching will be harder to obtain. 2B much simpler.
Could be they are not buying Duran’s “breakout” as sustainable. I would keep Duran in CF sign Hernandez to share LF/DH with Yoshida and play O’Neill in RF and stash Abreu at AAA until needed. If Rafaela is on the roster let him play 2B (or SS and put Story back at 2B).
That’s a winner!
JEEEEEERRRRY
COME OUT TO TRAAAAAYAAAAAADE
Jerry took his ball and went home.
Just read Devers to the Yankees for cash and a player to be named later from low A ball.
He is a lefty to start, and second his salary is too high…Kim fits better if they can make it work!
Kim would be great but I think the Padres are reluctant to trade him unless they get a huge return
Kim would be a top 3 or 4 player on the Padres. It would take a group of prospects that the Red Sox fans will hate to see go.
Not for one year it wouldn’t. This guy isn’t Juan Soto. you aren’t getting multiple top prospects for one year of Kim that’s nuts.
I would think the Padres would be reluctant based on his value alone. Kim isn’t costing much and consistently putting up 4+ WAR.
“This guy isn’t Juan Soto.”
No, he isn’t, but Kim had more WAR than Juan Soto in 2023.
Kim had 5.8 WAR, Soto had 5.5 WAR. Look it up.
So, yes, Kim would cost a ton, and he was better statistically in 23. Two totally different players but he helped his team win slightly more.
Yankees truly made a bad gamble unless they sign Soto long term.
I prefer Cro as the target. Kim is certainly better and cheaper, but that’s what makes it problematic. They have long-term 2B assets in Bogaerts, Cro and Merrill. That makes SD an avid seller.
An important facet to a Cro acquisition would be finding a trading partner for Yorke. If we did acquire Cro, Yorke’s value to us goes way down.
Now that we have Grissom, I don’t think we will be after either.
Good time to trade Duran.
Duran for India ?
I would decline
Rafaela, and a couple lower level prospects for Edward Cabrera.
Sox get a potential No 2 starter and Marlins get someone they can plug into SS or the OF.
I think Rafaela is worth more than Cabrera. I think Duran for Cabrera one for one would be pretty fair.
Not a chance in the world. Young good SP w years of control are the coins of the realm. You can’t touch Cabrera with Rafaela.
I like all the depth in the outfield. None are surefire studs so it’s tricky deciding who goes in a trade. I’d like to keep Rafaela because of the glove, but as been said, too similar JBJ. But if he hits….oh boy!!! Duran seems like a less than great Grady Sizemore so I’d say trade him now coming off a nice season. Abreu still hasn’t enough play time to make any quick judgments. Looks solid.
Honestly all the Sox still need is a 2B and another SP. All those swingmen should set up the BP just fine and the starting lineup is just a piece or two away.
Merrifield at 1/12. Then trade Duran and pieces to CLE for Bieber. I’d feel good going into ST w that roster.
I would love to see Tatis Jr at SS and Story at 2B. SD pays down a little of that contract, Sox take some pain and send a couple decent prospects. Let Rafaela roam CF and hope the bat comes around.
Honestly though, up the middle they’d have Wong, Tatis, Story and Rafaela. That’s something to get excited about.
And how entertaining would it be to have Tatis and Devers back to back?!?
Hahahahahababahaha. “Tatis for a couple decent prospects” – good one bro
Roman Anthony in a deal for Cease
Here comes last place again.. Red Sox have brought in no impact players; Pitching staff is questionable. They are perfectly happy to extract players from the rehab injury list to save money ( They are one of the richest clubs in MLB).
They have a third baseman who should be a designated hitter, he killed the club with his horrendous fielding, who is the regular second baseman, catcher and outfielders?
Mariners putting Luis Castillo on the block for fiscal reasons because of trouble with ROOTS rsn.
Yu Darvish comments on disappointment in sdp front office and that contract was not negotiated in good faith. Strongly alluded to willingness to waive no-trade-clause.
Both could easily be Red Sox targets.
I wouldn’t take Yu for that contract. SD should tell him to broker a trade for himself.
I’d sell high on Duran while he has some value. If he was a good outfielder, then maybe it would be a different story. Everyone seems to be worried about pitching… If you want to help out the pitching staff, you should have a solid defense behind them. The red Sox certainly don’t have that.
Devers is a hole at third, Yoshida sucks in left, Duran sucks in center, Casas is considered below average at first. Who knows who’s playing second and now that Verdugo is gone, rf may not be great either.
Duran strikes out to much for a light hitting CF, is a bit of a head case, and is 27. He’d be the first one out the door.
The Sox should sell high on Duran. His career numbers sit around. 250/.260 BA in the minors/majors and he hit almost .300 in 2023. Sure, defense is bad but that didn’t stop Philly from signing a bunch of DH-type players that are terrible at defense and putting them in the OF.
I wonder if Red Sox could make a trade for Burnes, Adames and Weimer?
Love the idea! But that only works if Burnes and Boras agree to negotiate a contract extension as part of the deal. Brewers will obviously demand big time returns (package resembling Mayer, Houck, Duran, Crawford). You can’t pay that without a Burnes extension imo!