Guardians Win Draft Lottery
The second ever MLB draft lottery was conducted at the Winter Meetings this afternoon. The Guardians were surprisingly awarded the first overall pick, followed by the Reds and Rockies. Cleveland entered the event with just a 2% chance of securing the highest selection.
Cincinnati also surprisingly drew near the top of the league. The Reds’ chances of landing the first pick were less than 1%. While they didn’t quite get to #1, they jump up to second despite having the 14th-worst record this year.
Here’s the first round order:
- Guardians
- Reds
- Rockies
- Athletics
- White Sox
- Royals
- Cardinals
- Angels
- Pirates
- Nationals
- Tigers
- Red Sox
- Giants
- Cubs
- Mariners
- Marlins
- Brewers
- Rays
- Mets
- Blue Jays
- Twins
- Orioles
- Dodgers
- Padres
- Yankees
- Braves
- Phillies
- Astros
- Diamondbacks
- Rangers
As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all had identical chances of landing the top selection.
All non-playoff teams ostensibly have a chance to win the lottery. However, the CBA also prevents a team that is not a revenue sharing recipient from landing within the top six in consecutive seasons. That ruled out the Nationals this year, as they selected 2nd overall a season ago. (As an interesting aside, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America relays that a ball for Washington was actually chosen on the initial drawing for the first pick. As a result of the CBA provision capping them from picking higher than 10th, that result was voided. Cleveland’s winning ball was drawn on the second trial.)
This year, the A’s, Royals and Rockies had the best chance of securing the #1 overall selection. Each had an 18.3% probability for the pick. The White Sox (14.7%) and Cardinals (8.3%) had the fourth and fifth highest odds, respectively.
Also of note: none of the Mets, Yankees or Padres were drawn into the top six. Those teams surpassed the third luxury tax tier. As a result, their highest choices were dropped by 10 spots apiece. Had any of them received a lottery pick, their second-highest pick would have been moved back instead.
The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings, aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections.
While the 2023 draft was extremely highly regarded at the top — particularly with the first five selections — the ’24 class isn’t as lauded. Much can change with the upcoming amateur baseball season in the spring, of course, but early indications are that having a top selection may not be quite as impactful as it would be in a typical season (and certainly not last summer). Baseball America recently updated its Top 100 draft prospects.
2024 Draft Lottery Odds Finalized
The conclusion of the 2023 season didn’t just bring the start of the offseason. It also finalized the lottery odds for the top picks in next summer’s amateur draft (h/t to Carlos Collazo of Baseball America).
As part of the Players Association’s efforts to reduce the incentive for non-competitive teams to lose games, the latest collective bargaining agreement introduced a lottery to determine the top six overall selections. A team’s odds of landing a higher pick are still weighted in favor of the clubs with the worst records, although the three worst teams all have identical chances of landing the #1 selection. If two teams have the same record, the club with the worse record in the preceding season gets the better odds.
The odds aren’t simply the inverse of the previous year’s standings, however. One of the CBA’s anti-tanking measures is to limit how often a team can pick within the lottery. A teams that does not receive revenue sharing payments and landed a lottery pick in one draft is prohibited from picking higher than 10th the following season. Revenue sharing recipients cannot select above 10th if they had a lottery selection in the preceding two drafts.
That rules the Nationals out from selecting any higher than 10th next year. Washington is not a revenue sharing recipient and had the #2 pick (which it used on Dylan Crews) in 2023. Last summer’s other lottery teams were the Pirates, Tigers, Rangers, Twins and A’s. Texas and Minnesota are ineligible for a lottery selection after making the playoffs.
The lottery only comes into play for the first round of the draft. From the second round onwards, pick order is determined in inverse order of the prior season’s standings (aside from compensatory and competitive balance selections).
The odds for next year’s #1 selection are as follows:
- A’s (50-112): 18.3%
- Royals (56-106): 18.3%
- Rockies (59-103): 18.3%
- White Sox (61-101): 14.7%
- Cardinals (71-91): 8.3%
- Angels (73-89): 6.1%
- Mets (75-87): 4.3%
- Pirates (76-86, 62-100 in ’22): 3%
- Guardians (76-86, 92-70 in ’22): 2%
- Nationals (71-91): Ineligible
- Tigers (78-84, 66-96 in ’22): 1.6%
- Red Sox (78-84, 78-84 in ’22): 1.2%
- Giants (79-83): 1%
- Reds (82-80, 62-100 in ’22): 0.9%
- Padres (82-80, 89-73 in ’22): 0.7%
- Yankees (82-80, 99-63 in ’22): 0.6%
- Cubs (83-79): 0.4%
- Mariners (88-74): 0.2%
After the first six selections are drawn, the remainder of the first round will run in inverse order of the standings among the teams not awarded a lottery pick. The A’s will therefore pick no lower than 7th, the Royals no lower than 8th, and so on. A team with a record outside the bottom six would only be vaulted up if drawn into the top six, although they could move up marginally as teams in front of them fall based on their luxury tax status (as explained below).
The draft order for the remainder of the first round is determined by how far a team advances in the playoffs, its revenue sharing status, and its regular season record. These selections are fixed; a playoff team cannot move up via the lottery.
19. Marlins
20. Brewers
21. Rays
22. Blue Jays
23. Twins
24. Orioles
25. Dodgers
26. Braves
27. Phillies
28. Astros
29. Diamondbacks
30. Rangers
A final note: a team that exceeds the third tier of luxury penalization (set at $273MM in ’23) generally sees its top pick moved back by 10 spots. If that team lands a top six selection, then its second-highest selection is moved back by 10 spots. The Mets, Yankees and Padres are believed to have surpassed the $273MM mark. None of those teams made the playoffs, so they all have a chance — albeit a minimal one for the Padres and Yankees — at a lottery pick.
The drawing is held annually at the Winter Meetings. Collazo reports that this year’s iteration will take place on December 5 at 2:30 pm Central, but the results will be held back for two hours so MLB Network can televise them at 4:30. Baseball America published a Top 100 draft prospects list in July, with Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz leading the class. Obviously, much can change when the amateur season plays out next spring.