The Cubs and Red Sox are among the teams that have shown interest in reliever Ryne Stanek, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand also tied the right-hander to the Mets earlier this week.
Stanek, 32, profiles as a rebound candidate. He’s coming off a pedestrian season with the Astros. Over 50 2/3 innings, he turned in a 4.09 ERA with a league average 23.9% strikeout percentage. He issued walks at a slightly elevated 9.9% clip and surrendered 1.42 home runs per nine innings.
That platform showing paints Stanek as a fairly nondescript middle reliever. There’s more intrigue in both his pre-2023 performance and his velocity. He’d turned in a brilliant 1.15 ERA over 54 2/3 frames two seasons ago. While it’d have never been reasonable to expect him to maintain that kind of run prevention, Stanek’s overall production between 2018-22 was strong. Over that five-year span, he managed a 3.16 ERA while punching out more than 28% of opponents between the Rays, Marlins and Astros.
There’s reason to believe Stanek can recapture that form. The 6’4″ hurler remains one of the hardest throwers in the game. His fastball sat above 98 MPH last year, as it has for the bulk of his career. While that didn’t result in his customary strikeout tally, he still remained tough to hit on a pitch-for-pitch basis. Stanek induced a swinging strike on 14.7% of his offerings, placing him among the top 50 relievers in MLB (minimum 30 innings) in that regard.
Stanek’s age and mid-level results last season should limit him to a two-year deal at most. That’s part of the appeal for both Chicago and Boston. The Cubs haven’t been keen on significant bullpen investments in recent years. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Chicago hasn’t signed a single reliever to a multi-year contract since their three-year deal with Craig Kimbrel halfway through the 2019 season. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently spoke generally about the risk in investing heavily in the bullpen because of the volatility associated with many relievers.
Boston hasn’t been as averse to spending on the relief crops, although new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow comes over from the Cubs front office. The Sox are seemingly working with financial limitations at this point of the winter. A deal for Stanek shouldn’t be prohibitive for either team.
The Cubs arguably need to add to the relief corps more than the Sox do. Chicago’s bullpen is led by Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. While the group turned in roughly average results last season, it’s a potential weak point on an otherwise well-rounded roster. Boston has a pair of effective veterans at the back end in Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, while John Schreiber joins Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten and a handful of starter/reliever hybrids as options for the middle innings. Jansen has been the subject of recent trade speculation (as has Martin to a lesser extent), but there’s no indication Boston is on the verge of a deal.
He balked.
h
Cubs will outbid the Cheapsox any day.
And some other team will outbid the Cubs. This one’s harder to credibility in since Hoyer doesn’t like spending on relief pitching.
You’re probably right, but anyone can outbid the Cheapsox.
Haha, “The Cheapsox,” man that’s funny
Red Sox arent being outbid, they being out ‘chosen’. As in Free Agents arent choosing to come to Boston.
I think it’s a bit of both at this point. If we paid up, they would come
The cubs had better do something and big because their relief is lacking and they’re about to lose bellinger.
Full throttle.
Fat – All the Cubs have to do is offer $1 more than Breslow’s opening offer, and Stanek will be headed to Chicago.
If Robertson is any indicator, price for reliable (on paper) late inning arms isn’t going down this offseason
Still warm.
Full ****in’ Throttle Bitches
Trot Nixon is running for prez?
Purist – I believe he’s referring to legendary centre Bryan Trottier.
Wonder what’s Breslow ‘s pitch? ” Want to come play for a last place team that won’t spend money”?
Boston has the scumbag Cora who seems to be fully acceptable by ownership and fans so looking at the free agents it’s time to be consistent and sign both Urias and Bauer for around $35MM together and salvage the off season. At least we won’t lose 100 with those two guys.
Breslow in the beginning said he’d get a top line starter via trade. He must be offering garbage. I would like them to sign any upgrade at this point.
Do they really have anything to offer though?
Curve – Fair question. The offer has to be customized for the team we are dealing with. I like Burnes in MIL.
The Brewers have an excellent prospect in the outfield, a pitcher and a corner infielder. I would stock up their middle infield prospects with Mayer and Yorke and I’d throw in a guy who is blocked like Blaze Jordan. Three ranked prospects for the right to sign Burnes to an extension seems like a lot so I’d make the deal contingent on the extension at a fair market value.
Three ranked prospects for the right to sign Burnes to an extension seems like a lot so I’d make the deal contingent on the extension at a fair market value.
————————–
Burnes has taken a big step back two consecutive seasons.
ERA 2.43>2.94>3.39
FIP 1.63>3.14>3.81
Whip .940>.954>1.069
K/W 6.88>4.76>3.03
Still an excellent pitcher, but he is not a long-term bet, imo. If you are giving up real value, I’d be looking for someone like Luzardo.
Joe – You’re totally missing the humor behind it.
Red Sox have a well known habit of overpaying for players who have declined greatly …. get it?
TF wasn’t joking. Not even close.
Fever – Joe’s right. Not joking.
Burnes with an extension blows away the futures of Mayer, Yorke and Jordan. The reason MIL would do it is because nobody else will offer as many pretenders as Boston can.
If I were Milwaukee I’d re-sign him because he’s an elite player and elite players are the foundation of teams that win rings. We would still need at least 4 more but you have to start where your need is greatest.
Joe – With all due respect, you’re incorrect this one time.
For example, he said Burnes won the Cy for the joke of a Covid season.
He did not win it in 2020, he won it in a totally legit 2021 season.
That is all, I’ll bow out of this now.
Using cy young voting isn’t an object way to measure improvement, decline etc. but even by that standard Burns has gotten worse. (1-7 and then 8)
Even by that weird and very subjective measure (cy young voting) Burns got worse. dropping from 1 to 7 is still a drop.
Burns is obviously a very talented pitcher but the numbers don’t lie.
I love it!
The Boston Scumbags, aka MLB’s Dirty (Bakers) Dozen!
If I was an idiot and saw the number of guys the Red Sox have talked to I’d think they were a great team with a lot of signings.
Just what Boston needs…another right handed pitcher.
Where’s my boy? You can officially change your name to “Dumpster Divin’ Jed”. If the Cubs are in on Stanek, the might as well throw an invite to Rich Hill. Jeezus.
Breslow : ” we can offer you 3 million on a 1 yr deal”
Breslow – So you are thinking about dealing both Jansen and Martin as excess baggage and adding Stanek?
Who said we couldn’t do worse than Bloom? Oh yeah, that was me. I guess Breslow is going to give Bloom a run for his money at being the worst GM in Red Sox history.
Red Sox ownership should notice that fans were angry now they don’t care. Apathy is in Red Sox nation. They have done nothing to generate interest.
They probably noticed many Red Sox fans complain no matter what happens.
Going to a website to write you don’t care about something is an interesting concept.
suit – That is unquestionably false. I have personally attended several Winter Weekends and Red Sox Town Halls, there was zero criticizing until last year. It was all applause, praise, and worship until last year.
The treatment of Xander, combined with finishing dead last and being totally cheap was the tipping point.
I am proud of Red Sox Nation for not being the morons that Red Sox ownership believes they are, for not passively accepting the destruction of their beloved franchise.
You DO realize their ancestors were responsible for the BOSTON Tea Party, don’t you?
Fever: You may be right. However, I think the fans and media are way too negative right now. The Red Sox are still spending around $200M per year which is not cheap and it is not the “destruction of the franchise”. I think they will be over $200M this year as they have been. They may still sign Montgomery. Last year in the AL East we had:
2023:
O’s 101 wins, $87.5M CBT payroll
Rays 99, $130.3M
Tor 89, $246M
NYY 82, 293.8M
Bos 78, $223.8M
Spending big is not necessary. John Henry sees teams having more success than the Red Sox while spending far less money. I think John Henry wants to spend $200+M per year and that should lead to a great team if the money is allocated well.
We know John Henry is impressed with the Rays as he hired Bloom. Let’s compare the Red Sox and Rays over the last 3 years:
2023:
Rays: 99 wins, $130.3M CBT payroll
Bos: 78 wins, $223.8M
2022:
Rays: 86 wins, $118.7M
Bos: 78 wins, 235.8M
2021:
Rays: 100 wins, $88.6M
Bos: 92 wins, 211.6M
Based on the above, the Red Sox current level of spending should be more than enough to field a great team (as in a 95-100 win team) if the money is allocated well. The Rays have proven that and John Henry has apparently taken notice.
All – Love your enthusiasm but it’s not as simple as you suggest.
First, it’s not how much spending but what quality of spending are you making. Are the player values greater than their costs?
Next, the RAYS have to spend small so they as an organization have committed a long time ago to building a farm system with quality managers, coaches and programs that develop players. Their drafts haven’t been great but their farm system isn’t filled with nepotism like Boston’s. That’s why suggesting less money IS NOT the answer.
There are two key issues the ownership must wrestle with and they mistakenly thought they were fixing things when Bloom was hired.
1 – The team must remain competitive so the talent level can not erode as you fix your farm system infrastructure
2 – To fix the infrastructure you must put all your faith in the new GM to replace the poor managers and coaches with higher quality managers and coaches. This job starts at the MLB level and progresses down to ROK ball. To eliminate ineffective “lifer” coaches and managers the GM will need full support of the organization. I don’t believe that’s possible in Boston. The history of guys in the good old boys club in the farm system is to entrenched in the culture of the Red Sox. This part of the fix could take a decade to change the mindset and personnel who aren’t qualified.
So to be like TB will take a decade or more. To immediately jump to TB payroll levels would be tanking. To cut back is the wrong choice. The GM should treat his job like a Financial Planning job in a corporation. Most companies have a hurtle rate of return for their projects. Likewise, the GM should have a hurtle rate of return for all acquisitions.
Lets take Giolito as an example. Giolito will be 29 in 2024 and his recent results have been far inferior to his results in 2019 to 2021. Prior to 2019 Giolito was bad in his first full year as a starter. So 1 bad year, 3 good years, and two more bad years. Which year or years best represents his immediate future?
His good years he finished 6, 7 and 11 in the Cy Young voting and got invited to be an all-star in 2019 four years ago.
He had 30 starts in 2022 and his ERA was 4.90 and his WHIP was a horrendous 1.430. In 2023, he had 33 starts and his ERA was 4.88 about the same as the previous year and his WHIP was a bit improved but still bad at 1.313. He pitched for 3 teams and his results were very similar to his previous year with the CWS. So it wasn’t the team that made him bad it was his doing. So why does Breslow think he can turn things around and why would you choose that over a rock solid pitcher like a Burnes or Snell? Moeny? We have plenty to cover two SP1 type pitchers. Why do a reclamation project like Giolito? It wasn’t about the money it was about Breslow showing off and turning around a guy like Giolito. He sees that as a way to build his cred while we the fan base see it as a risky alternative to getting a REAL SP1.
I think you money and TB theories are a logical rationalization of why a big market club might pick a Bloom or Breslow. The owners aren’t being cheap, they don’t get how long it will actually take to clean house in the farm system and remove all the good old boys so new modern coaches and managers can be installed. They love the concept but like Bloom and Breslow they don’t get the enormity of the task. In the meantime, the MLB team suffers and the fans become more irate. We aren’t going cheap and we aren’t modeling anything after TB. We simply keep hiring guys who think they can fix the broken infrastructure of the farm system while maintaining a competitive MLB team. The first guy was wrong and based on where we are today at the end of January, the second guy appears to be wrong too. Last place is our destiny until Breslow takes actions to improve the MLB roster with all-stars.
KD: I think the Red Sox will continue to outspend the Rays by 50% or more. So, I am guessing John Henry expects to be better than the Rays. The Red Sox should be able to outspend the Rays on both player development infrastructure and on player payroll. They need to switch over to doing things smarter like the Rays which may take some time. That is my current theory about what is going on.
suit – Sox ownership has repeatedly stated their goal is always to win a world championship.
Why are you comparing the Sox record to a Tampa team that has not only NEVER won a World Championship, but hasn’t even won a non-Covid postseason series since 2008!
Think about that …. HAS NOT WON A POSTSEASON SERIES SINCE 2008.
So that’s my first point, Henry is an idiot for trying to win championships by replicating a team that hasn’t won a postseason series in 16 years.
My second point, which I’ve said before, the disaster of the past 4 years is just as much on Henry as it is on Bloom. The bad contracts that have comprised a large portion of the team payrolls the past two years were on Bloom/Henry. Sure it was Bloom who pushed for Story, Kluber, Paxton, Devers, Jansen, Kike, Mondesi, Perez, Richards, etc but it was Henry who decided to replace Dombrowski with Bloom.
Since Henry is the one who screwed up the past four years, he’s the one that should compensate by spending more to acquire good players that can offset the bad prior decisions.
Sox ownership has lied to us repeatedly over the past 4 years. They said trading Mookie was a necessity to acquiring and retaining talented players, but instead they’ve pocketed the savings while reducing payroll to what is currently the lowest in a decade.
If Henry is so obsessed with operating in cost savings mode like the Rays and he thinks Breslow can do what Bloom and virtually no other team can do, fine. But punting on the next 3-5 seasons until this imaginary pipeline of championship caliber homegrown players comes to fruition should not be an option. Enough damage has already been done the past 5 years, the world no longer views Sox ownership as competent or wanting to compete for championships.
Fever: You must see what the comparison shows. The Rays have won 99 games 2 of the last 3 years while spending much less money than the Red Sox and Yankees. I don’t think you have a case that it’s not worth being more like them while significantly outspending them. You point out that the Rays have not won much in the postseason and should not be replicated. I am pointing out that they are not going to replicate them if they outspend them by 50% or more which they have been. It should work out much better for the Red Sox. So, I think they still want to win, but in a different way.
Good luck in Chicago dude
Cubs need to add some relievers or the bullpen will run out of gas down the stretch just like last year
I thought the Mets were interested? I guess they realize he wants to be paid.
Ok, this guy has Jed and the Cubs written all over him.
We hired Breslow presumably to run the team with an emphasis on pitching. That being said, I hope this is just another Red Sox rumor like so many other “Red Sox are showing interest in player x” nonstories. I thought with the hiring of Breslow we would get away from filling the bullpen with middling relievers with deep count, high walk rate tendencies. Perhaps we could try to trade for or sign a lefty setup man since we haven’t had a good lefty since 2013.
“Stanek, 32, profiles as a rebound candidate” – well of course he does. Why else would the Sox be linked to him
enlightened – I think Breslow is going for a DOUBLE-DOUBLE this season. He’s close to double digit rebounds. Now we need to see some guys who can score!!
I am very thankful to this ownership group for 4 championships so far in the 21st century. Before this ownership group took over there were a lot of fans who loved and died without ever seeing their beloved Red Sox win a World Series and for that I’m grateful.
Unfortunately when the Red Sox ownership fired DD it appears to this fan ownership went from treating the Red Sox as the crown jewel of their portfolio to an asset that can be milked to fund other ventures by FSG. It’s sad to see but ownership seems to of checked out and not willing to spend to the levels of the other big market teams. What is not clear yet is whether this is a permanent shift or if they will spend big again once they are closer to championship level team. One thing is clear this ownership group lies and has lost most if not all of the goodwill they had with the 4 World Series titles.
It’s important to remember that Breslow wasn’t the first, second, third or maybe even the 5th or 6th choice. It seems the more experienced guys wanted nothing to do with the Red Sox. Most didn’t even interview the reason seems pretty clear it’s Alex Cora. If you hire a new head of baseball operations that person should be able to hire and fire everyone including Managers and Coaches reshape the team they way they see it. I don’t think Bloom wanted Cora and I’m quite sure Breslow would be fine getting rid of Cora as well. I mean if you’re an experienced POBO why would go into a situation where your possible replacement is managing. Cora has talked about going into the front office in the future and Cora seems to have some weird sway over ownership. I mean what does this guy have on ownership. I mean after a failed season last year and after firing Bloom ownership went out of its way to announce that Cora would be back effectively hampering hiring of a new POBO. At risk of calling the ire of a particular poster on this site based on what we have seen does it really appear that Breslow was empowered to fire Cora. The evidence points to a resounding no. If Breslow can’t fire Cora and Cora is coming back then Devers stays at third. Cora will not let me repeat will not move Devers off of third. It’s not happening until Cora is gone.
We know that Breslow was not who ownership envisioned running the team when they fired Bloom but it’s who we got. It also appears that Breslow is severely hampered by ownerships payroll. He’s also hampered by the team in general. I mean if you’re a top free agent pitcher why would you want to go to Boston and their terrible defense and overall team. I don’t blame Yoshida and Ohtani for going to the Dodgers the players want to win and the Dodgers are clearly going for it. I do think that Boston was willing to sign Yamamoto for close if not the same amount as what the Dodgers paid but why would he choose Boston over the Dodgers he wouldn’t unless Boston way over paid.
Saying that Breslow is the same as Bloom is complete hogwash. Breslow is clearly hampered on payroll but he has identified a problem and he has already hired the pitching infrastructure to change the trajectory of the Red Sox pitching now and in the future. He’s doing what he can do clearly he wasn’t empowered to fire Cora. He’s trying to lay the foundation to turn what has been the biggest weakness into a potential strength. I think if he can turn the pitching around and show that he’s indispensable then he will be empowered to potentially fire Cora and build the team the way he wants. At least this is what I have been hoping. At the very least he’s more decisive than Bloom. I think his acquisition of Slaten shows that. He clearly targeted him in the rule 5 and when he was picked he worked out a trade to add him. He’s also imo correctly determined that the team needs to have stacked pitching depth in AAA and he is addressing that for the inevitable injury’s that occur. The point is he is doing what he needs to do to under his current constraints to change the trajectory of the Red Sox in the future.
Who is Slaten?
Justin Slaten rule 5 pick from Texas for the Mets. Mets traded him to Red Sox for Ammons a 10th round pick in last years draft.
I missed that one. Thanks.
Stanek: “pedestrian season”, gave up a lot of walks. Well that’s a good way to put it!
I just got an email for a “full Throttle” shirt from Sully’s. Couldn’t stop laughing but I did question whether it was sincere or some of the finest sarcasm ever!!
sullysbrand.com/cdn/shop/files/FULL-THROTTLE_Shirt…
That is next level
Full throttle baby. Right off the waiver wire that is.
JoeBrady – Remember how many times I have explained how screwed up the Prospect Ranking systems are? Here is a link to the Pipeline Ranking System for the MLB. It explains the points I keep talking about and it should be obvious that none of it makes sense.
If you and I ranked the top 100 prospects along with 98 other guys and then someone calculated the ranking based on the MLB methodology, would you have any confidence in what it meant?. Did the team with the most points have the best farm system or simply the most popular farm system? If you are five points behind the team in front of you and then there is a gap of 50 to the next farm system on the list can you brag as the team right behind you that we are so close without knowing the specific numbers? No.
The numbers are all guesses and then they average the guesses and come out with a ranking that is meaningless because it’s averages of averages just like the modern metrics. You might as well bring 100 people together to guess how many times a coin flipped 100 times would come up tails. That guess would be the equivalent of the farm system rating. Just a bunch of meaningless averages calculated from 100 guesses.
mlb.com/news/mlb-clubs-with-most-preseason-top-100…
There are basically 3 levels to prospects, and their value is based nearly solely on those three things.
1) Those players are able to fill a need on the major league roster at some point at an elite level, league average level, or below league average level. Obviously, the results give them value, not the hypothetical results you think you may gain from them somewhere down the line. This is the hardest to judge prior (complete guess work) and the easiest to evaluate through time. Was the prospect successful? Did the organization get any value for its work in scouting and player development?
2) The prospects’ ability in a trade to bring in talent that is elite, league average, or below league average to fill a need at either the major league level, or minor league level. In the now, the talent that is traded for either example fills an immediate need, or depth. The vast majority of these players realistically are filling roster spots at the minor league level and will never add any value at the major league level. If they ever bring in talent that plays at the major league level you can refer to number 1 to see what value they added.
3) The vast majority of minor leaguers will fill a slot on a minor league roster and will simply allow a team to have minor league teams with filled rosters so they can play against other minor league teams. That will be the entirety of their value to the franchise. Any of them that are traded or make it to the major leagues can be judged by 1 or 2.
Because the percentage of players that make it to the major leagues in any capacity is fairly low you can also figure out failures as well as successes in hindsight. Did you trade prospects of value for players that gave you inferior returns. Were those moves advantageous when they were done specifically for the need they were done for? Did you release, or allow impactful prospects to get scooped up by other teams exposing your own system evaluators? Are they prospects you are bringing in through trades, rule 5, etc adding any real value or are your evaluators failing to identify impactful players?
You are 100% correct. The entire prospect evaluation system for prospects and teams systems is most magic 8 ball garbage. I understand the desire to have a current ranking, but realistically the official ranking should be done 5 or more years later. For instance, you should have a current ranking, but released with it should be the evaluation of what those prospects actually were, their value, and team ranking for the year 5 years prior. Those prospect ranking would shift dramatically, and team ranking would shuffle considerably. The added real-world accuracy of what really transpired vs what people thought might happen would paint a far better picture and give more accountability.
I forgot to mention, but along with the hindsight evaluation 5 years later should be the projected ranking, and prospect ranking list from the 5-year prior prospect ranking and team ranking lists so teams and fans can see how wildly wrong they were, or accurate they were. I would guess that most years that hindsight evaluation would be drastically different than the 5-year prior guess work rankings they put out. It would be very informative and really allow people to see how accurate the prognosticators are, and how teams are actually doing with real data instead of hypothetical guesswork.
William = Truly a masterpiece. I love reading something that is accurate and comprehensive about the game of baseball. Thank you.