The Cubs and Red Sox are among the teams that have shown interest in reliever Ryne Stanek, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand also tied the right-hander to the Mets earlier this week.
Stanek, 32, profiles as a rebound candidate. He’s coming off a pedestrian season with the Astros. Over 50 2/3 innings, he turned in a 4.09 ERA with a league average 23.9% strikeout percentage. He issued walks at a slightly elevated 9.9% clip and surrendered 1.42 home runs per nine innings.
That platform showing paints Stanek as a fairly nondescript middle reliever. There’s more intrigue in both his pre-2023 performance and his velocity. He’d turned in a brilliant 1.15 ERA over 54 2/3 frames two seasons ago. While it’d have never been reasonable to expect him to maintain that kind of run prevention, Stanek’s overall production between 2018-22 was strong. Over that five-year span, he managed a 3.16 ERA while punching out more than 28% of opponents between the Rays, Marlins and Astros.
There’s reason to believe Stanek can recapture that form. The 6’4″ hurler remains one of the hardest throwers in the game. His fastball sat above 98 MPH last year, as it has for the bulk of his career. While that didn’t result in his customary strikeout tally, he still remained tough to hit on a pitch-for-pitch basis. Stanek induced a swinging strike on 14.7% of his offerings, placing him among the top 50 relievers in MLB (minimum 30 innings) in that regard.
Stanek’s age and mid-level results last season should limit him to a two-year deal at most. That’s part of the appeal for both Chicago and Boston. The Cubs haven’t been keen on significant bullpen investments in recent years. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Chicago hasn’t signed a single reliever to a multi-year contract since their three-year deal with Craig Kimbrel halfway through the 2019 season. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently spoke generally about the risk in investing heavily in the bullpen because of the volatility associated with many relievers.
Boston hasn’t been as averse to spending on the relief crops, although new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow comes over from the Cubs front office. The Sox are seemingly working with financial limitations at this point of the winter. A deal for Stanek shouldn’t be prohibitive for either team.
The Cubs arguably need to add to the relief corps more than the Sox do. Chicago’s bullpen is led by Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. While the group turned in roughly average results last season, it’s a potential weak point on an otherwise well-rounded roster. Boston has a pair of effective veterans at the back end in Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, while John Schreiber joins Rule 5 pick Justin Slaten and a handful of starter/reliever hybrids as options for the middle innings. Jansen has been the subject of recent trade speculation (as has Martin to a lesser extent), but there’s no indication Boston is on the verge of a deal.
He balked.
h
Cubs will outbid the Cheapsox any day.
And some other team will outbid the Cubs. This one’s harder to credibility in since Hoyer doesn’t like spending on relief pitching.
You’re probably right, but anyone can outbid the Cheapsox.
Haha, “The Cheapsox,” man that’s funny
Red Sox arent being outbid, they being out ‘chosen’. As in Free Agents arent choosing to come to Boston.
I think it’s a bit of both at this point. If we paid up, they would come
The cubs had better do something and big because their relief is lacking and they’re about to lose bellinger.
At this point, Hoyer is probably thinking that the waiting game will get Bellinger to drop his price some. As for getting relievers, well I’ll believe when I see it.
By the time The price goes down for Bellinger will have already signed on the dotted line with Anaheim. Unfortunately Jed doesn’t like spending money that isn’t his on players that make a difference. And Bellinger makes a pretty big difference. I get not giving him 200 million but Boras has to realize Belli isn’t worth 200mil. He said the same thing about Jake Arrieta and he only got 75mil from the Phillies
This is what the Cubs do. They don’t like giving out huge money contracts.
I don’t think you can blame Hoyer. You even pointed this out.
“I get not giving him 200 million but Boras has to realize Belli isn’t worth 200mil”
Look at all the big FA’s still not signed, they are Boras clients. Why hasn’t someone else signed Bellinger? At least for me, it’s pretty easy to draw the conclusion that Boras is sticking with his numbers and teams aren’t willing to overpay at this point.
Cubs payroll was right at the threshold last year. It’s going to be there again at the start of the season. They spend $$. I have no issue with Hoyer for not having a contract to pay like Rendon. I’ll take 5 $20M guys with 4-5 year contracts over 2 $50M with 10.year contracts
True. We don’t know if the Cubs would’ve been okay with Ohtani’s deferrals. Shohei wanted to be a Dodger. Period.
We’ll either A) Belli’s ask is so astronomical that he scared off any suitors, B) Belli wants to go back to Chicago or LA and is waiting for that perfect offer from the Cubs or Angels, or C) the league, because of his peripherals, is skeptical to give him more than a few years, and he doesn’t have suitors, so Jed is waiting him out, until Belli realizes he has no choice other than to sign a team friendly deal with the Cubs. Either way, if the Cubs trot out Tauchman as the starting CF, Jed might need bodyguards. It was pretty clear @ CubsCon that the fans AND players wanted him back.
Jed might resign like Theo If he doesn’t make a at least a few moves between now and before spring training starts
Agree on that…Although, the commentary we’ve gotten from other GMs is that Hoyer has been extremely active and they expect him to be the most aggressive in baseball. It sounds like he’s trying to get something done. I’m not all that concerned.
Log – Theo is known for leaving when he creates a mess, but Jed isn’t like that. He won’t resign unless forced to do so.
He certainly didn’t leave a mess with the RS.
Unless WSC’s in 2013 and 2018 are considered a mess.
I think a lot of cubs fans get the economics of baseball and are happy with Jed as a conservative GM not willing to overpay. I think Jed has put a value on Belli and that’s what he’s willing to pay. He has proven that he’ll put a line in the sand and that’s it. Look at Imanaga’s contract, look at the deadline deal for Willson Contreras.
Joe – You have selective memory again?
Who was responsible for the AGon, Crawford, Jenks, Dice-K, Drew and Lackey fiascos to name a few?
Theo could never make it as a HOBO for a small or mid market team. He did the same thing with the Cubs, saddled them down with horrific contracts and then split.
All I am concerned is that Theo had substantial input into 4 WSCs. First ballot HOF guaranteed.
Joe – Okay, much better! I can agree with the input in the 4 championships (2004, 2007, 2013, 2016) and we’ll see about the first ballot thing. I think it’s possible, but not guaranteed.
“He did the same thing with the Cubs, saddled them down with horrific contracts and then split.”
I believe, the only bad contract the Cubs got stuck with was Hayward.
AH -Agree. To add, Hoyer learned a valuable lesson from failure… Failure of signing Bryant, Rizzo and Baez. He tried to sign all 3 and all 3 were asking for crazy deals. Bryant and Rizzo were “insulted” because Hoyer dared to offer them reasonable contracts. Had he buckled, we’d be going into year 4 of a $280M, 9-yr contract for a player that has totaled 2.7 WAR over 3 years.
I don’t agree with all his moves, but that’s fine. And I don’t feel he needs to email me weekly with updates on what he’s been working on.
Failure of signing Bryant, Rizzo and Baez.
========================
That’s what some fans don’t get. They think if your are going to spend $20M, then why not $24M, and if it is $24M, then why not $27M.
Bryant, Rizzo & Baez combined for $66M and 0.1 bWAR.
Joe – Theo didn’t give them either World Series. He simply provided a two very key components.
I’m a Theo fan but besides hitting on Mookie did he do anything else that was considered elite in his drafting? Bogey is a tier 2 player and has had a great career, JBJ was a one dimensional player who only worked because the roster was filled with hitters, Theo took Barnes, Swihart and Owens before him and all were busts except Barnes who was a journeyman reliever. He also drafted Travis Shaw, another journeyman infielder.
Theo did just one great move, he drafted Mookie and one excellent move he drafted Bogey. Those two separate Theo from Cherington who also had two good moves but they were lesser stars, Benny and Devers.
The great Theo was an excellent GM. He added two excellent players much like Cherington added Benny and Devers and now DD has added Casas, Rafaela, Duran, Bello, Houck and others. In time, DD’s players may or may not prove to be greater than Cherrington’s but Mookie is not likely to be surpassed so Theo had the greatest pick of all.
They did give Rizzo an extension when they first acquired him from San Diego. It was the right thing to trade them. I was mad at first like most or hopefully all of them were mad but they got a ton back for them. All but one player has at least a taste of the big leagues. Most prospects don’t pan out. Jed did a great job in those 3 trades. Plus the David Ronertson trade got them Ben Brown. He did great with the Yu Darvish trade as well.
He got a combined no hitter out of the Yu Darvish trade. So far.
TF – I totally agree with you, Theo is the 3rd-best Red Sox GM in my lifetime …. and I”m old!
Drafting Mookie was indeed the best thing Theo ever did with the Red Sox, followed by the trade for Schilling.
I have to defend my UConn guy though … Barnes a journeyman? His entire career was with the Red Sox until he went to Miami last year! He was very solid from 2016-2021 with a 3.86 ERA and 12.6 K/9 and do you know from 2018-2021 he AVERAGED 14.2 K/9 ….. that is incredible!!
Let me give you a bit of background here. Larry Lucchino became Theo’s mentor going all the way back to Theo’s days as an intern with the Orioles. When Larry went to the Padres, he took Theo with him. And when Larry went to the Red Sox, he took Theo with him.
Larry is the one who gave 27-year-old Theo his first Assistant GM job.
And on November 24, 2002 Larry is the one who made 28-year-old Theo the youngest GM in MLB history..
Because Theo had virtually no experience as an Assistant GM, Larry is the one who surrounded him with experienced baseball men in the front office.
espn.com/mlb/news/2002/1126/1467276.html
“The 28-year-old Epstein was promoted to general manager of the Red Sox on Monday, and the team said it would surround him with more experienced baseball people. Mike Port, who had been interim GM in Boston, and former Phillies GM Lee Thomas have also been offered jobs.”
Larry is the one who hired Bill James, on November 5, 2002.
Larry is the one who hired Bill Lajoie.
Mike Port was with the Sox since 1993 and was VP of Baseball Operations during Theo’s first two seasons as GM.
Lee Thomas was with the Sox since 1998 and remained through Theo’s first years as GM.
Ben Cherington was with the Sox since 1999 and of course eventually replaced Theo after the 2011 season.
I’m guessing you probably aren’t familiar with any of those names, but if you research them you’ll see they had a tremendous amount of experience and success. Cherington, Lee Thomas, Bill James, Bill Lajoie, Mike Port, and Larry Lucchino … that’s an All-Star Cast surrounding Theo and he had absolutely NOTHING to do with hiring any of them. Theo was just a kid learning on the job, still under his mentor’s wing.
As for the players he inherited, look up who brought Manny/Pedro/Damon/Nixon/Varitek/Nomar/Lowe/Wakefield/Youkilis/Mirabelli/Lester/etc.
Look up who acquired the prospects (Hanley and others) that were used to trade for Lowell and Beckett.
And it’s well documented the only reason Ortiz came to the Red Sox was because as soon as he was cut loose by the Twins, Pedro immediately called Theo and demanded that Ortiz get signed. Otherwise Ortiz never would have been signed, because Theo already had Hillenbrand, Millar and the infamous Jeremy Giambi.to cover 1B/DH.
I feel bad for Breslow, because he has absolutely NOBODY in that front office capable of mentoring him. He’s probably leaning on Kennedy more than anybody, which is awful because Kennedy doesn’t know crap!!
The two best Red Sox GM’s in my lifetime are obviously the Double D’s ….. Dombrowski and Duquette.
And it shouldn’t be surprising, seeing as the relationship between Dombrowski and Duquette, dates back to the early 1980s, when the two men ran in the same midwestern baseball circles. Dombrowski, who was with the White Sox at the time, and Duquette, who worked in the Brewers scouting department, chatted frequently at hot stove events and scouting dinners in Chicago, forging a friendship that was strengthened by the White Sox-Brewers rivalry of that era.
In the more than three decades since, Dombrowski and Duquette have worked closely to build the Montreal Expos into an almost-champion, been front office heads of a combined five different organizations and each had a turn as the head executive of the Red Sox.
And through it all, they’ve remained good friends.
“So, you want the story on DD and DD.” Duquette once said.
Dombrowski left Chicago for Montreal in 1987 and spent a year as director of player development before he was promoted to assistant general manager less than a year later. With a vacancy at farm director, Dombrowski recommended Duquette, opening the door for the men to work together for the first time.
“I wanted to train to be a farm director and Dave wanted to move up and be an executive,” Duquette said. “It worked out. Dave recommended me and I became director of player development.”
Dombrowski took over as the club’s general manager at age 31, replacing Bill Stoneman in July 1988. He’d work closely with Duquette for the next three seasons, promoting him to assistant general manager for the 1991 season.
Though Dombrowski is less than two years older than Duquette, he became one of Duquette’s mentors. In addition to teaching Duquette the importance of strong international scouting, Dombrowski, who Duquette described as a “big stickler” on league rules, made sure that his subordinates were receiving all the tools they needed to successfully run a team on their own.
“He gave me the training I needed to become a general manager,” Duquette said. “Like all the administrative operations. He used to have little seminars with the younger executives on learning the waiver rules and things like that. Dave would assign a specific subject for you to understand.
“His style is very inclusive,” Duquette said. “If you’re in baseball operations with Dave, he gives you the opportunity to make decisions and the autonomy to make decisions. But he also holds you accountable.”
Dombrowski recognized the potential of his assistant, never worrying that Duquette’s career would surpass his own.
“Dan is a very good baseball man,” Dombrowski said. “Smart, hard-working, knowledgeable. You could see he had a bright future ahead of him.
“I never thought of it as a competition with somebody for another job. I always just tried to do the best job I could for the organization and see what would end up happening. I always tell this to people, even when I talk to groups — just worry about the things you can control, like your own work ethic and how you do your job. You let everything else take care of itself.”
Outside the office, the two men became close friends, frequently attending Montreal Canadiens games together and sitting directly behind then-goalie Patrick Roy during their first winter in town. Dombrowski was single at the time and Duquette’s family had not yet moved to Montreal, so the two young executives spent plenty of time together.
“We used to do things together,” Dombrowski said. “I’d go over his house. He’d have Halloween parties and I remember going over there for that. We used to ski a lot. We used to do a lot of cross-country skiing. We used to have a good time together.”
Duquette claimed he still has pictures of Dombrowski in costume with his date from those Halloween parties.
“Those aren’t for distribution,” Duquette said.
Dombrowski left the Expos at the end of the 1991 season to run the expansion Florida Marlins, who would start play in 1993. His replacement in Montreal was Duquette, who became a general manager for the first time.
“I was very happy [for him],” Dombrowski said. “He deserved it. He was the logical person to get the job and I knew that he’d do a good job there. It didn’t last long, because he moved down to Boston. But I was very happy for him.”
Dombrowski was far from the only Expos executive to head south, as most of Montreal’s front office went with him. This provided a unique challenge for Duquette, who had to virtually build his first staff from scratch.
“He just about took the whole organization,” Duquette said. “So Bill White, the president of the National League, called me up and said, ‘Dan, this isn’t right.’ I think they had taken like 18 of the staff members. I told him, ‘no, Bill. It’s fine. The Expos have a great organization and if these guys don’t want to be here, then it’s better they go with Dave.’ So he told me he wasn’t letting any more of these guys go. So I told him, ‘two more! There’s just two more!’ but Bill decided to cut it off.”
The Duquette-led Expos were successful in his two years at the helm, winning 87 games in 1992 and 94 in 1993 before Duquette’s hometown team, the Red Sox came calling.
“We had a good team, we had great talent,” Duquette said. “And we had a lot of good people. Dave took a lot of the people that he brought to Montreal to Miami with him and ended up doing a lot of great things with that club, too.
“A lot of the guys Dave took to Florida were friends of mine. But I was able to replace them. There were some really good people in the Expos organization.”
Over the next two decades, Dombrowski and Duquette stayed in touch while jumping from organization to organization. Dombrowski left Miami to run the Tigers, beginning in 2002. Duquette lasted in Boston until 2002, then took a long hiatus from baseball.
When Duquette began to consider the possibility of re-entering baseball operations in 2011, his old friend Dombrowski was one of the major catalysts of his return. Duquette visited Dombrowski in Lakeland during spring training and expressed his desire to get back into baseball.
“He gave me a couple of ideas on where I could go to get back into the mainstream of baseball,” Duquette said. “I’ve always appreciated that. When I got the job here, I made sure to recognize Dave’s contribution to helping my career and for encouraging me when I was out to get back into it.”
Though Duquette credits Dombrowski as a mentor, the relationship between the men has helped them both. When Dombrowski was fired by the Tigers and hired by the Red Sox in 2015, Duquette reached out to tell him that he’d have a lot of help from fans with constant ideas on how to improve the club – AND HE WAS RIGHT!!!
Fever – Great summary. I enjoyed the Dombrowski part since I know his history dating back to high school in the Chicago area where I grew up. I thought Duquette was the best GM until Theo came along.
What you wrote should be read by everyone it was outstanding and accurate. Cherington is the guy I have struggled with because his early years are murky as to what he did versus others. His 2010 and beyond years were not good so I might be too harsh on him but leaving $41MM in dead salaries is a massive mistake. Also, you mentioned Bill James. He is another northwest suburbs of Chicago guy. He started publishing while living in Bannockburn a neighboring city and we started our fantasy keeper league in 1983. We wrote him emails about stats like IP and our EBP back in the day as we established our scoring system. His star took off shortly after that. We were all trying to do the same thing the metric people are doing today, figuring out how to evaluate the contribution of a player. Before OPS was ever invented we had conversed on using four components to define the value of a player. Runs produces which was derivative of the team you are on but it reflects a true contribution to the success of your team, batting average because it reflects your innate ability to use your hand/eye coordination to put a ball in play where the fielders weren’t, Extra Base percentage which quantified all the additional things you could do offensively while in the batter’s box like drawing walks, getting hit by pitch, sacrificing and hitting for extra bases. The formula was (OBP=BA)+(SLG-BA) equals extra base percentage. When you break it down it’s IP (isolated Power) plus walk rate. Then you need to consider stolen bases as a players other contribution to offense. Later when OPS came out we sent emails to the stats world guys we knew suggesting it was a bad representation of the contribution of a player because it double accounts BA. OPS is SLG = OBP and when you break that down it is (BA + IP) + (BA + Walk Rate) or 2 times BA + IP + Walk Rate. Note that this is identical our original evaluation except we only counted BA once.
Your discussion was really fun to read and reviewing things that happened over the years to DD was great along with the late 90s review of the Red Sox. That’s the time that where I struggle to understand exactly who did what before Theo became the man. Nice job.
Theo did one great thing? The third best GM? You two can’t be serious. He drafted Paplebon, Pedroia Jacoby Ellsbury to name a few. Also he signed David Ortiz off the scrap heap and he became one of the greatest players in Red Sox history. Whatever little credibility you two might have left is completely gone now.
“Theo did one great thing”
I assume this is a Red Sox centric discussion. Theo made some bad moves in Chicago, but also has a list of great moves. Turning Scott Feldman and Steve Clevinger into Arrieta and Pedro Strop. Arrieta obviously gets the headlines, but over 8 years with the Cubs, Strop threw 375 IP to an ERA of 2.88.
Trading Cashner for Rizzo, trading for Hendricks, Signing Lester. Zobrist, Fowler drafting Bryant, Schwarber,
Full throttle.
Fat – All the Cubs have to do is offer $1 more than Breslow’s opening offer, and Stanek will be headed to Chicago.
If Robertson is any indicator, price for reliable (on paper) late inning arms isn’t going down this offseason
Still warm.
Full ****in’ Throttle Bitches
Trot Nixon is running for prez?
Purist – I believe he’s referring to legendary centre Bryan Trottier.
Wonder what’s Breslow ‘s pitch? ” Want to come play for a last place team that won’t spend money”?
Boston has the scumbag Cora who seems to be fully acceptable by ownership and fans so looking at the free agents it’s time to be consistent and sign both Urias and Bauer for around $35MM together and salvage the off season. At least we won’t lose 100 with those two guys.
Breslow in the beginning said he’d get a top line starter via trade. He must be offering garbage. I would like them to sign any upgrade at this point.
Do they really have anything to offer though?
Curve – Fair question. The offer has to be customized for the team we are dealing with. I like Burnes in MIL.
The Brewers have an excellent prospect in the outfield, a pitcher and a corner infielder. I would stock up their middle infield prospects with Mayer and Yorke and I’d throw in a guy who is blocked like Blaze Jordan. Three ranked prospects for the right to sign Burnes to an extension seems like a lot so I’d make the deal contingent on the extension at a fair market value.
Three ranked prospects for the right to sign Burnes to an extension seems like a lot so I’d make the deal contingent on the extension at a fair market value.
————————–
Burnes has taken a big step back two consecutive seasons.
ERA 2.43>2.94>3.39
FIP 1.63>3.14>3.81
Whip .940>.954>1.069
K/W 6.88>4.76>3.03
Still an excellent pitcher, but he is not a long-term bet, imo. If you are giving up real value, I’d be looking for someone like Luzardo.
Joe – You’re totally missing the humor behind it.
Red Sox have a well known habit of overpaying for players who have declined greatly …. get it?
TF wasn’t joking. Not even close.
Fever – Joe’s right. Not joking.
Burnes with an extension blows away the futures of Mayer, Yorke and Jordan. The reason MIL would do it is because nobody else will offer as many pretenders as Boston can.
If I were Milwaukee I’d re-sign him because he’s an elite player and elite players are the foundation of teams that win rings. We would still need at least 4 more but you have to start where your need is greatest.
Joe – With all due respect, you’re incorrect this one time.
For example, he said Burnes won the Cy for the joke of a Covid season.
He did not win it in 2020, he won it in a totally legit 2021 season.
That is all, I’ll bow out of this now.
Using cy young voting isn’t an object way to measure improvement, decline etc. but even by that standard Burns has gotten worse. (1-7 and then 8)
Even by that weird and very subjective measure (cy young voting) Burns got worse. dropping from 1 to 7 is still a drop.
Burns is obviously a very talented pitcher but the numbers don’t lie.
I love it!
The Boston Scumbags, aka MLB’s Dirty (Bakers) Dozen!
If I was an idiot and saw the number of guys the Red Sox have talked to I’d think they were a great team with a lot of signings.
Just what Boston needs…another right handed pitcher.
Where’s my boy? You can officially change your name to “Dumpster Divin’ Jed”. If the Cubs are in on Stanek, the might as well throw an invite to Rich Hill. Jeezus.
Breslow : ” we can offer you 3 million on a 1 yr deal”
Breslow – So you are thinking about dealing both Jansen and Martin as excess baggage and adding Stanek?
Who said we couldn’t do worse than Bloom? Oh yeah, that was me. I guess Breslow is going to give Bloom a run for his money at being the worst GM in Red Sox history.
Red Sox ownership should notice that fans were angry now they don’t care. Apathy is in Red Sox nation. They have done nothing to generate interest.
They probably noticed many Red Sox fans complain no matter what happens.
Going to a website to write you don’t care about something is an interesting concept.
suit – That is unquestionably false. I have personally attended several Winter Weekends and Red Sox Town Halls, there was zero criticizing until last year. It was all applause, praise, and worship until last year.
The treatment of Xander, combined with finishing dead last and being totally cheap was the tipping point.
I am proud of Red Sox Nation for not being the morons that Red Sox ownership believes they are, for not passively accepting the destruction of their beloved franchise.
You DO realize their ancestors were responsible for the BOSTON Tea Party, don’t you?
Fever: You may be right. However, I think the fans and media are way too negative right now. The Red Sox are still spending around $200M per year which is not cheap and it is not the “destruction of the franchise”. I think they will be over $200M this year as they have been. They may still sign Montgomery. Last year in the AL East we had:
2023:
O’s 101 wins, $87.5M CBT payroll
Rays 99, $130.3M
Tor 89, $246M
NYY 82, 293.8M
Bos 78, $223.8M
Spending big is not necessary. John Henry sees teams having more success than the Red Sox while spending far less money. I think John Henry wants to spend $200+M per year and that should lead to a great team if the money is allocated well.
We know John Henry is impressed with the Rays as he hired Bloom. Let’s compare the Red Sox and Rays over the last 3 years:
2023:
Rays: 99 wins, $130.3M CBT payroll
Bos: 78 wins, $223.8M
2022:
Rays: 86 wins, $118.7M
Bos: 78 wins, 235.8M
2021:
Rays: 100 wins, $88.6M
Bos: 92 wins, 211.6M
Based on the above, the Red Sox current level of spending should be more than enough to field a great team (as in a 95-100 win team) if the money is allocated well. The Rays have proven that and John Henry has apparently taken notice.
All – Love your enthusiasm but it’s not as simple as you suggest.
First, it’s not how much spending but what quality of spending are you making. Are the player values greater than their costs?
Next, the RAYS have to spend small so they as an organization have committed a long time ago to building a farm system with quality managers, coaches and programs that develop players. Their drafts haven’t been great but their farm system isn’t filled with nepotism like Boston’s. That’s why suggesting less money IS NOT the answer.
There are two key issues the ownership must wrestle with and they mistakenly thought they were fixing things when Bloom was hired.
1 – The team must remain competitive so the talent level can not erode as you fix your farm system infrastructure
2 – To fix the infrastructure you must put all your faith in the new GM to replace the poor managers and coaches with higher quality managers and coaches. This job starts at the MLB level and progresses down to ROK ball. To eliminate ineffective “lifer” coaches and managers the GM will need full support of the organization. I don’t believe that’s possible in Boston. The history of guys in the good old boys club in the farm system is to entrenched in the culture of the Red Sox. This part of the fix could take a decade to change the mindset and personnel who aren’t qualified.
So to be like TB will take a decade or more. To immediately jump to TB payroll levels would be tanking. To cut back is the wrong choice. The GM should treat his job like a Financial Planning job in a corporation. Most companies have a hurtle rate of return for their projects. Likewise, the GM should have a hurtle rate of return for all acquisitions.
Lets take Giolito as an example. Giolito will be 29 in 2024 and his recent results have been far inferior to his results in 2019 to 2021. Prior to 2019 Giolito was bad in his first full year as a starter. So 1 bad year, 3 good years, and two more bad years. Which year or years best represents his immediate future?
His good years he finished 6, 7 and 11 in the Cy Young voting and got invited to be an all-star in 2019 four years ago.
He had 30 starts in 2022 and his ERA was 4.90 and his WHIP was a horrendous 1.430. In 2023, he had 33 starts and his ERA was 4.88 about the same as the previous year and his WHIP was a bit improved but still bad at 1.313. He pitched for 3 teams and his results were very similar to his previous year with the CWS. So it wasn’t the team that made him bad it was his doing. So why does Breslow think he can turn things around and why would you choose that over a rock solid pitcher like a Burnes or Snell? Moeny? We have plenty to cover two SP1 type pitchers. Why do a reclamation project like Giolito? It wasn’t about the money it was about Breslow showing off and turning around a guy like Giolito. He sees that as a way to build his cred while we the fan base see it as a risky alternative to getting a REAL SP1.
I think you money and TB theories are a logical rationalization of why a big market club might pick a Bloom or Breslow. The owners aren’t being cheap, they don’t get how long it will actually take to clean house in the farm system and remove all the good old boys so new modern coaches and managers can be installed. They love the concept but like Bloom and Breslow they don’t get the enormity of the task. In the meantime, the MLB team suffers and the fans become more irate. We aren’t going cheap and we aren’t modeling anything after TB. We simply keep hiring guys who think they can fix the broken infrastructure of the farm system while maintaining a competitive MLB team. The first guy was wrong and based on where we are today at the end of January, the second guy appears to be wrong too. Last place is our destiny until Breslow takes actions to improve the MLB roster with all-stars.
KD: I think the Red Sox will continue to outspend the Rays by 50% or more. So, I am guessing John Henry expects to be better than the Rays. The Red Sox should be able to outspend the Rays on both player development infrastructure and on player payroll. They need to switch over to doing things smarter like the Rays which may take some time. That is my current theory about what is going on.
suit – Sox ownership has repeatedly stated their goal is always to win a world championship.
Why are you comparing the Sox record to a Tampa team that has not only NEVER won a World Championship, but hasn’t even won a non-Covid postseason series since 2008!
Think about that …. HAS NOT WON A POSTSEASON SERIES SINCE 2008.
So that’s my first point, Henry is an idiot for trying to win championships by replicating a team that hasn’t won a postseason series in 16 years.
My second point, which I’ve said before, the disaster of the past 4 years is just as much on Henry as it is on Bloom. The bad contracts that have comprised a large portion of the team payrolls the past two years were on Bloom/Henry. Sure it was Bloom who pushed for Story, Kluber, Paxton, Devers, Jansen, Kike, Mondesi, Perez, Richards, etc but it was Henry who decided to replace Dombrowski with Bloom.
Since Henry is the one who screwed up the past four years, he’s the one that should compensate by spending more to acquire good players that can offset the bad prior decisions.
Sox ownership has lied to us repeatedly over the past 4 years. They said trading Mookie was a necessity to acquiring and retaining talented players, but instead they’ve pocketed the savings while reducing payroll to what is currently the lowest in a decade.
If Henry is so obsessed with operating in cost savings mode like the Rays and he thinks Breslow can do what Bloom and virtually no other team can do, fine. But punting on the next 3-5 seasons until this imaginary pipeline of championship caliber homegrown players comes to fruition should not be an option. Enough damage has already been done the past 5 years, the world no longer views Sox ownership as competent or wanting to compete for championships.
Fever: You must see what the comparison shows. The Rays have won 99 games 2 of the last 3 years while spending much less money than the Red Sox and Yankees. I don’t think you have a case that it’s not worth being more like them while significantly outspending them. You point out that the Rays have not won much in the postseason and should not be replicated. I am pointing out that they are not going to replicate them if they outspend them by 50% or more which they have been. It should work out much better for the Red Sox. So, I think they still want to win, but in a different way.
Good luck in Chicago dude
Cubs need to add some relievers or the bullpen will run out of gas down the stretch just like last year
I thought the Mets were interested? I guess they realize he wants to be paid.
Ok, this guy has Jed and the Cubs written all over him.
We hired Breslow presumably to run the team with an emphasis on pitching. That being said, I hope this is just another Red Sox rumor like so many other “Red Sox are showing interest in player x” nonstories. I thought with the hiring of Breslow we would get away from filling the bullpen with middling relievers with deep count, high walk rate tendencies. Perhaps we could try to trade for or sign a lefty setup man since we haven’t had a good lefty since 2013.
“Stanek, 32, profiles as a rebound candidate” – well of course he does. Why else would the Sox be linked to him
enlightened – I think Breslow is going for a DOUBLE-DOUBLE this season. He’s close to double digit rebounds. Now we need to see some guys who can score!!
I am very thankful to this ownership group for 4 championships so far in the 21st century. Before this ownership group took over there were a lot of fans who loved and died without ever seeing their beloved Red Sox win a World Series and for that I’m grateful.
Unfortunately when the Red Sox ownership fired DD it appears to this fan ownership went from treating the Red Sox as the crown jewel of their portfolio to an asset that can be milked to fund other ventures by FSG. It’s sad to see but ownership seems to of checked out and not willing to spend to the levels of the other big market teams. What is not clear yet is whether this is a permanent shift or if they will spend big again once they are closer to championship level team. One thing is clear this ownership group lies and has lost most if not all of the goodwill they had with the 4 World Series titles.
It’s important to remember that Breslow wasn’t the first, second, third or maybe even the 5th or 6th choice. It seems the more experienced guys wanted nothing to do with the Red Sox. Most didn’t even interview the reason seems pretty clear it’s Alex Cora. If you hire a new head of baseball operations that person should be able to hire and fire everyone including Managers and Coaches reshape the team they way they see it. I don’t think Bloom wanted Cora and I’m quite sure Breslow would be fine getting rid of Cora as well. I mean if you’re an experienced POBO why would go into a situation where your possible replacement is managing. Cora has talked about going into the front office in the future and Cora seems to have some weird sway over ownership. I mean what does this guy have on ownership. I mean after a failed season last year and after firing Bloom ownership went out of its way to announce that Cora would be back effectively hampering hiring of a new POBO. At risk of calling the ire of a particular poster on this site based on what we have seen does it really appear that Breslow was empowered to fire Cora. The evidence points to a resounding no. If Breslow can’t fire Cora and Cora is coming back then Devers stays at third. Cora will not let me repeat will not move Devers off of third. It’s not happening until Cora is gone.
We know that Breslow was not who ownership envisioned running the team when they fired Bloom but it’s who we got. It also appears that Breslow is severely hampered by ownerships payroll. He’s also hampered by the team in general. I mean if you’re a top free agent pitcher why would you want to go to Boston and their terrible defense and overall team. I don’t blame Yoshida and Ohtani for going to the Dodgers the players want to win and the Dodgers are clearly going for it. I do think that Boston was willing to sign Yamamoto for close if not the same amount as what the Dodgers paid but why would he choose Boston over the Dodgers he wouldn’t unless Boston way over paid.
Saying that Breslow is the same as Bloom is complete hogwash. Breslow is clearly hampered on payroll but he has identified a problem and he has already hired the pitching infrastructure to change the trajectory of the Red Sox pitching now and in the future. He’s doing what he can do clearly he wasn’t empowered to fire Cora. He’s trying to lay the foundation to turn what has been the biggest weakness into a potential strength. I think if he can turn the pitching around and show that he’s indispensable then he will be empowered to potentially fire Cora and build the team the way he wants. At least this is what I have been hoping. At the very least he’s more decisive than Bloom. I think his acquisition of Slaten shows that. He clearly targeted him in the rule 5 and when he was picked he worked out a trade to add him. He’s also imo correctly determined that the team needs to have stacked pitching depth in AAA and he is addressing that for the inevitable injury’s that occur. The point is he is doing what he needs to do to under his current constraints to change the trajectory of the Red Sox in the future.
Bruin: My current theory for what is going on is as follows: We know John Henry pays attention to the Rays as he hired Bloom. He must see the Rays making the playoffs and sometimes winning the division while spending much less than the Red Sox and Yankees. Last year the Rays won 99 games while spending $93M less on CBT payroll than the Red Sox. The Rays spent $130M last year. So, I’m guessing John Henry is thinking that $200M or so should be more than enough to field a great team. So, I’m guessing that he still wants to win, but he wants the recent spending level reconfigured/redistributed better and he wants more internal player development like the Rays. I could be wrong, but that is my current theory. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Red Sox add another pitcher and a bat and their payroll is right around last year’s payroll of $223M.
All that’s why the Rays invest heavily in their infrastructure. They seem to always have great minds in their organization and I think their manager is much better. The biggest issue as long as ownership won’t let the POBO pick his manager and Cora stays its going to be a problem. I’m quite sure Bloom didn’t want Cora as his manager and I’m sure Breslow would like to pick his guy as well. At least Breslow has began changing the infrastructure which is really all he can control right now and he didn’t hesitate to bring those guys in.
Bruin: Agreed. Breslow should get to pick his manager.
Bruin1012 – Invest heavily in their infrastructure. That’s very vague. What exactly are they doing to invest in their infrastructure. Handing out Bloom’s manual on how to have a great infrastructure?
The infrastructure is all about choices just like the MLB roster. If you make bad choices for pitching coaches, hitting coaches and managers in the minors it will be reflected in the play of the players you draft. The Rays have made better choices and it has allowed them to have better player development. Have you ever asked yourself WHY they have made better selections? It’s because as a young team they have far less nepotism than the Red Sox. Heck, we have Cora as manager despite being a serial cheater. How does that happen? He knows somebody who knows somebody. He brings guys like Feebles and others to the MLB and they all suck. In the minors, Devers gets promoted out of AA too early when his manager, a well loved and connected DR guy whose been with Boston for years and is connected to the DR baseball academy where Devers came from. He lies and Boston gets an inept 3B who has incredible political clout behind him so he gets an unfair chance to play when he can’t field. Boston’s ‘old boy’ network is why they have a poor player development program. Breslow can’t fix that quickly so why start there instead of with the MLB team? He’s doing what he wants to do and is in his comfort zone. The MLB team success is secondary if he can sell ownership of the same crap Bloom sold them. Sustained winning. How incredibly stupid when you consider the DD years WERE true sustained winning. The most in Boston history since the 1910s!!!
Fix the MLB team then do what you can to eliminate nepotism in the organization and replace all those bad managers and coaches with new modern knowledgeable people. MLB FIRST!!! Theoretically, MLB success should lead to a longer stay in Boston but since DD got axed maybe Breslow believes selling the infrastructure rebuild will keep him in Boston longer.
Bruin1012 – As a Breslow apologist it makes perfect sense that you would rationalize his actions to date. The extensive history part was very good. The team died when DD got fired and it appears there will be no mouth to mouth or paddles by Breslow to bring it back to life. Instead, he’s busy burying it and planning for a new body constructed from improved pitching WAY in the future. Lets see, if I recall Bloom’s mantra it was his plan was to bury the 2018 roster and create a manual like he did in TB to teach everyone how to have a great farm system. Then he tanked for a few years so he’d improve his chances of having great draft picks and he can use that annual ritual to claim he fixed the farm system despite those same draft picks being granted to whomever was the GM. In the end, Bloom’s plan lasted about a decade before winning could happen and then another several years to be able to call it sustained. Breslow has nothing to tear down thanks to Bloom so he’s looked to the horizon and said what can I claim will fix this organization IN THE LONG RUN. Yes, I can fix the pitching.!!! Yes, the pitching staff that currently has Bello, Houck, Crawford, Whitlock and Pivetta as all young, up and coming pitchers!! Certainly that needs fixing!!! Breslow is falling back on his knowledge of pitching and forgetting about what the team actually needs. It needs Cora gone. It needs Devers to destroy every fielding glove he has to benefit the team. But no, rather than doing what is best for team, you have rationalized why he can’t do the obvious. It’s not within his power is an incredible excuse. Sure it may be true but he may also like Cora. He CHOSE to not get a SP1 when it was by far our biggest acquisition need and instead he’s tinkered with projects much like Bloom did with Perez in his first year in Boston.
Fans are not going to let Breslow skate by as they did with Bloom. We need action and stop with the ridiculous emphasis on money. We all know there are no money issues. Those issues are Breslow issues. This reminds me of the money misdirect when Mookie was going to be given away. Boston is LOADED with money. Breslow can’t hid behind money since he’s already wasted big money on Giolito, smaller money on O’Neill and a ridiculous pay down on Sale. He’s a financial idiot and is 3 for 3 in bad contracts costing Boston $42.1MM so far. That’s 18% of the payroll on bad contracts and it’s only January.
Maybe it’s me but if I took over a team that had ONE player who had an above average chance of being an all-star in 2024 (Devers) I would focus on improving the talent level and leave the infrastructure work to after the 2024 roster is set. It’s call procrastinating!!! You have a big job to do so you focus on insignificant things that can wait until later. Successful people don’t do that, people in over their heads do!!!
Stop with the constraints BS. The only constraint Boston has right now is Breslow doing his job.
Look I agree with you Cora is a problem and as long as Cora is their Devers plays third which is also a problem. Your take on Breslow is asinine the guy clearly doesn’t have the payroll flexibility that you think he has. Let’s be real I think was Werner it might have been Kennedy that said he expects this year’s payroll to be at or below last year’s payroll. That’s the ownership group. They were willing to sign Yamamoto to a long term contract and probably push the payroll to do that but in order to get him to come to Boston they clearly would have had to grossly overpay. This is an ownership issue right now it’s not a Breslow issue. Ownership holds the purse strings and they aren’t willing to spend right now that’s just a fact.
Breslow has identified a problem and he has addressed that problem from a structural standpoint. He sees a problem with pitching so he has brought in a very highly thought of Andrew Bailey to be the new pitching coach. He has hired Justin Willard to be the director of pitching also a very highly thought of pitching mind and most recently the creator of the driveline academy. He saw a problem and he addressed it. This what I mean by structural changes he’s doing what he can do. Listen you can argue all you want but I think you’re wrong and you think I’m wrong all we have is our thoughts and opinions no one knows for sure.
Bruin1012 – If my take on Breslow is so asinine then explain why a guy with roughly $80MM plus the ability to move both Verdugo and Yoshida for another $27MM is wasting money on Giolito not a SP1? If he was ACTUALLY told a dollar amount he can spend (FYI…Things don’t work that way) then why not just go get your #1 priority and see how much you have left over to fill the other needs? That’s the logical way to approach things. Why did Breslow go for Giolito rather than a true SP1 FIRST?
The answer completely supports that opinion you call asinine. He’s doing what he wants to and is NOT focused on turning this team into a winner in the near future. He’s futzing with the infrastructure not the MLB roster. He has HIS OWN agenda and he signed on with Boston by explaining it to the owners and now he’s executing it and they are giving him leeway just like they did for Bloom.
Don’t look for this team to compete in the near future. That’s not the bill of goods sold to the owners by Breslow. He pulled a Bloom and promised BS. Yes the mythical fixed farm system that allows the owners to spend less to make more. It didn’t work with Bloom and it’s not going to work with Breslow.
I don’t disagree with the fact that he brought in guys to upgrade the farm system, I disagree with worrying about actions like that before you fix the 2024 roster. Last place and noncompetitive since DD should be addressed first. The infrastructure upgrades are long-term fixes when short-term fixes are needed.
The only thing we differ on is I believe Breslow is doing a terrible job since he’s focused on the wrong things and you think long-term stuff should be done first just like you did with Bloom. That’s your issue not mine. I want to win, you want to pretend we are improving the organization when just like Bloom we are not and we are also not winning.
There is no money issue. Even if we cut back total spending there is no reason to not address the most urgent needs unless of course you have a different agenda. Breslow’s agenda is not to fix the 2024 Roster. I have a HUGE issue with that and I’d like him fired asap. It won’t happen but just like Bloom I’m not wrong for calling for it when I see incompetence.
Why push back winning another 5 to 10 years like Bloom did if you don’t have to? Go get a GM who makes winners not dreams of winning. If ownership doesn’t want that, then lets get them to sell the team so diehard Red Sox fans older than 50 don’t have to die before we see another duck boat parade!!
Let me ask you this Troll do you honestly think that Breslow doesn’t want to add Snell or Monty to the rotation? Do you honestly think if the money was available to make those additions that Breslow wouldn’t do that. Do you honestly think Breslow took the job and despite ownership going full throttle he talked them out of spending money on high end free agents? I’ll tell you what I think absolutely no if he was given the leeway to sign those guys he would. There’s another possibility he has tried to sign a top of the rotation guy and those guys have told him they don’t want to come to Boston. It’s possible if I’m Monty and rely on quality defense because I put the ball in play a lot I don’t Devers as my third baseman. I don’t think that’s it though I think ownership has told him he has this much wiggle room and make it work. It’s why he talked about needing to move salary to add someone else. That’s not the words of a guy who has unlimited money to add and chooses not to. Nope I don’t think you’re right there is a money issue in that ownership doesn’t want to spend. It’s the only thing that makes sense to me from a logical standpoint. Sadly we will ever know who’s right because that information will never be made public most likely.
TF – I think Breslow got Gio because he believes they can fix him. I have no clue if they will because obviously I’m not in that inner circle, but if they can turn him around then they’ve got a #1 SP at a discount for one year and it buys them a year’s time to find a replacement for him.
I hafta admit, I’m fascinated that you are still saying there’s no budget and that Breslow can spend as much as he wants.
In the world of business there is ALWAYS a budget, and MLB is most definitely a business.
Ownership confirmed last year’s budget was $225M and that’s why they didn’t allow Bloom to take on payroll at the deadline.
They also confirmed this year’s payroll will most likely be less than last year. I do hope they pivot and sign Monty or Snell, because I do want them to try and compete this year, but right now there’s absolutely no reason for Kennedy to lie about that.
Fact is, the Red Sox had the most needs this offseason and are well below the CBT threshold, and yet they’ve been among the most inactive teams when it comes to signing free agents.
All they’ve done is take 3 fliers, hoping on two rebounds (O’Neill & Gio) and an unproven young player blossoming (Grissom).
Meanwhile the Reds, Royals, Tigers, Brewers, Pirates, Chisox all have signed more players from the Free Agent Tracker List than the Red Sox.
Everything that has happened thus far supports ownership’s admission they are reducing payroll even more than last year.
Bruin – Friedman is considered one of the best front office minds in MLB, and yet he’s still spending like Mo Vaughn at the Foxy Lady.
Same with Anthopoulos, also considered a brilliant HOBO and he’s already got the Braves projected 2024 payroll over $270M.
Despite their brilliance, these guys are spending like crazy because they know their careers and legacy will be judged on only one thing – success on the field.
No trophies are handed out for having the lowest payroll in MLB, that would never be Breslow’s personal goal.
Fever – I get why you think budgets should happen in baseball since it’s a business. Practically speaking a baseball team in a small market is likely to have a budget since the owners don’t have deep pockets and seriously large revenue streams. Going over the CAP or if the market very small going over the Budget is a risky adventure. If KC was going to have a shot at a ring by making the playoffs or even winning their division, the board that decides what transactions will happen will seek emergency funds to meet the extraordinary conditions. That’s KC!!
In Boston, they have a board too. They say yes and no to proposed transactions. They have HUGE profits so over spending reduces profits it doesn’t break them like it might in KC. So the GM is responsible for submitting the transactions for approval and the Board imposes any type of budget upon those deals. When I see the GM submit Giolito, O’Neill and Grissom deals and they are for over $41MM of the $237MM CAP or 17% of the money available I ask myself why are people talking about limits on money? The guys just wasted over $40MM on long shots. What if he had signed two SP1s instead for $60MM per year. Would they have said no? Absolutely NOT. Thus, there is no budget, there is available money NOT BEING SPENT BY BRESLOW to get the things we obviously need. We can stretch the Giolito signing into what you suggested. They guy could make a miracle come back and be the SP2 or even the SP1 if he pitches above his old level. Then why no SP2? Why O’Neill when you have a great young outfield like Rafaela, Duran, Abreu and Anthony in the wings? O’Neill is not what Boston needed it’s what Breslow needed to prove he’s great at his job of taking good players who have played badly for years and reclaiming them as good players. That’s all about him, not what the immediate needs are for Boston. That’s my issue and for me I see no limitations in the spending I see limitations in what Breslow wants to do. He’s trying to prove his worth rather than providing a winning team.
As a fan, I don’t care about Breslow’s worth I care about the team that keeps finishing last because of a bad GM and Manager. So people can suggest they know there is a budget and that’s fine but they don’t know that. I truly believe if Breslow submitted papaerwork to trade Mayer, Yorke and Jordan to Milwaukee for Burnes at an extension of 5 years and $25MM to $30MM a year they would say yes and we’d have a SP1. They would still be below the CAP by a good distance and they could still trade Yoshi if someone tells Breslow there is a hard CAP, which I don’t believe will ever happen based on the deals done by Bloom and Breslow so far.
So budgets in the business world are targets that companies track to and they are flexible based on the opportunity. The lower in the company, the less the flexibility. The board or clearinghouse of all transactions in a baseball organization needs to be fluid with their spending. Opportunities may come along that benefit the organization that could not have been foreseen and the board has the flexibility to take advantage of the opportunity. Running a baseball organization has to be a fluid situation because the future is not predictable. Budgets can be revised but it’s all part of the process. You can’t acquire a player unless you submit to acquire them and I don’t believe Breslow is working on doing what the team needs. He’s trying to show off like Bloom did. He’s creating reclamation projects to show his great skill at finding diamonds in the rough. Sound familiar? New guy different day!!
Fever – Go take a look at what Friedman inherited and then what he added. The guys is more worthless than Cashman but the analytics people praise him in a you scratch my back and I’ll scratch your back. The guy is very similar to Cora in that he has a huge backing that is putting out propaganda about his great skills but if you dig deep, they aren’t there.
Tell me how hard your job must be if you can drop a BILLION on two players and everyone thinks it’s a great idea? It will blow up in his face when they get hurt.
You did bring up an interesting point with your last comment.
What if Breslow’s compensation is tied to the payroll level and that’s why he’s not submitting deals for expensive players. Heck, maybe Bloom’s deal was similar. Both were new at their jobs and would do anything to accept them, so maybe Breslow is limited in his spending so his kids can go to a great college not just a good one!! Stranger things have happened. You might be on to something with your comment about trophies for the lowest payroll. Maybe it’s not trophies it’s bonuses.
Fever that’s exactly what I’m saying it’s ownership that is holding the tight purse strings. No one including KD is ever going to convince me that it’s Breslow’s idea not to spend. This idea that Breslow is choosing not to spend and that the money is actually available to him is ludicrous. Breslow is a smart guy he wants to win and he will do everything in his power to put a winning team on the field. If ownership suddenly told him we can handle a 300 million dollar payroll and we just need a winner on the field he would spend 300 million. Clearly that is not happening here he is clearly working under budget constraints. I mean a close to the vest ownership group has come and said they are likely going to have a lower payroll then last year and Breslow has said he’s actively looking to move salary to continue to add. This fantasy that it’s his decision to keep payroll down is false it’s ownership and they have told him what his budget is and that he needs to work in that budget.
The pickup of Gio is a good one imo. Gio has likely had a horrible personal life in the last two years and his divorce and the breakdown of his marriage undoubtably had an effect on the guy. Anyone that has gone through a divorce knows the mental anguish it can put on someone. Despite his personal issues the guy took the ball every 5 days he wasn’t as effective as he’s been in the best but still he ate innings even going through the mental turmoil. With that personal stuff in his rear view mirror mostly and with an excellent pitching coach working with him I believe he has an excellent chance to rebound. If he does can be flipped for prospects at the deadline or he can possibly be extended if he likes Boston and he looks like a good bet moving forward. I think he’s a solid pickup if a bit on the expensive side.
Bruin1012- No I do not believe he thinks adding Snell or Monty will reflect well on him as the GM. Too much downside risk, especially after the Devers contract.
If you have ever worked with a highly intelligent guy from an Ivy League school or better and they discuss concepts with you I believe you would know that their logic and your logic don’t match up. Think of football and guys who must show off to feel good about themselves when they score a touchdown, or Devers who always must grab his 15 minutes of fame whenever it happens.
The highly educated guys do the same thing but in a slightly different way. Breslow wants to prove how smart he is by taking a GIolito and O’Neill and turning them into highly productive players. That’s far more satisfying to a guy like Breslow than winning 90 games with a team that should win 75 to 80. Genius type people like to have people think of them that way. The egos are off the charts and direction they walk is determined by them only. If Breslow wanted to win he’d fire Cora and move Devers. It’s that simple but that confrontation is beneath him. He’ll do the two acts in due time but for now he wants to create Craig Breslow victories and who better than Giolito and O’Neill? The money if it was an issue would have prevented the incredible stupidity of the buy down on Sale but the money wasn’t important. The Sale deal was about another Breslow victory when Grissom turns out to be an all-star. He paid $17MM for that opportunity to shine. Again, money is not even a concern of his, neither is winning. He’s trying to establish himself as the guy who people call the smartest guy in baseball. That’s not a path to victory that’s a path to self gratification. That’s what guys like him care about. I’ve known plenty of guys like that in my lifetime and I guarantee he’s not worrying about the won loss record during this courtship time frame with the Boston owners, he’s worrying about establishing himself as the genius that runs Boston’s Baseball Operations.
I agree with most of this. Breslow is only going to impact as much as his bosses allow him. I have hopes in him really impacting the pitching down the road, and some moves in people he has brought in shows he is at least trying to do that. Lord knows this is the worst organization in baseball history at developing pitching.
The elephant in the room is why so many people available refused to even consider the job in the first place. I think the Breslow hire may have at least made some in the front office consider what the league perception is about the Red Sox and the state it has been allowed to reach. If they are willing to fire people with rings and fire those that do not get them rings, then there is no realistic reason to pursue employment with the Red Sox unless you are looking to get a start and put it on a resume.
It will take a few years for Breslow to make any real impact on organizational pitching. Let us see if he is given that much time with the restraints he has been given to solve blatant issues all over the roster.
William I truly believe that the more experienced candidates didn’t want the job due to the Cora factor. Cora has spoke publicly about wanting to go into the front office to presumably run the show. Why would any experienced candidate want the Red Sox job especially when Cora seems to have ownerships ear.
Bruin – I do believe Cora is definitely a factor, but it’s not the only one.
Dombrowski didn’t leave because he was fired for missing the postseason in 2019.
Dombrowski left because Henry wanted to dramatically change their approach from spending-to-win to not-spending-to-improve-profits.
Dombrowski wanted no part of this shift in priorities, so Henry let him go.
And I think every POBO candidate wanted no part of Henry’s directive either.
Whose Red Sox resume would a POBO candidate want more?
Dombrowski’s 3 division championships and world championship?
Or Bloom’s zero championships of any kind?
It’s a no-brainer, POBO’s want to win.
Fever – DD wanted to sign Mookie for market value and told the ownership he can’t do his job if they don’t let him spend for the highest quality of players. It was to be a $9MM a year raise, less than two of his last three previous raises during arbitration.
William – The owner constraints are smoke and mirrors by Breslow supporters. The guy is addressing infrastructure like Bloom did rather than the 2024 roster. The supposed money issues are smoke and mirrors as well. Call it propaganda, call it misdirection, it doesn’t reflect reality.
Put yourself in Breslow’s shoes. Here are two scenarios. You tell me which one better explains his actions:
1 = Breslow signs with Boston and tells them he can improve the farm system by upgrading the pitching coach staff across all levels. He tells them it will take time and he needs for them to be patient while he revamps the farm system to make it better. (FYI…this is very similar to the pitch Bloom gave and then didn’t execute on)
2 – Breslow signs with Boston knowing he can’t spend to the cap and there is no need to improve the MLB roster if we can enjoy a few more years of tanking while Breslow replaces the pitching coaches across all levels. This will make the draft picks better so the farm system rating will go up and we can use short contracts to plug holes in the MLB roster until the infrastructure is pumped up with new coaches and new drafted pitchers.
I didn’t address the elephant in the room under these two possible contract agreements so let me address it now.
The reason nobody would want to be the GM in Boston is well documented:
1 – The most successful GM in the history of the club got fired in year 4 shortly after winning a World Series because he was fighting to retain the generational franchise player with a market value salary.
2 – The despicable convicted cheater manager back stabbed DD and Bloom and circumnavigated the GMs to have direct access to the ownership group and now holds something over their head to keep him around.
3 – The team lost 5 all-stars during Bloom’s time so the roster is stripped to the bone of proven talent.
4 – The owners behavior since 2019 is inconsistent and erratic.
5 – The team competes in the toughest division in baseball.
6 – The organization appears to be in a state of chaos.
7 – The best player on the team is selfish and forces the team to play him at a position he is not qualified for and it all ties back to some pipeline to the DR Academy.
8 – The team has no #1 or #2 SP since 2019.
William – Your view on the elephant was excellent.
Your last paragraph is an interesting conundrum for Breslow. If he wants to prove his worth by “Fixing” the pitching and it’s infrastructure will ownership care if he finishes last the next 3 years? Since ownership has behaved in a disturbingly varied pattern, I don’t know how he can have confidence they will support him that long.
Fans want the 2024 roster fixed, Breslow wants to show his value by fixing the pitching and infrastructure of the pitching and NOBODY really knows what ownership wants except extraordinary PROFITS like they have had during both DD’s time and Bloom’s time. They may actually be indifferent to Breslow as long as the fan noise isn’t too loud. They do hate to be booed!!!
William – I had written a long post about that same exact point. Breslow took the job with the thought of gutting it out for 4 years or so, gaining the experience, building his resume, and then leaving for a better paying job with a team that wants to win.
The Red Sox are doing it totally backwards. The natural progression, not just in MLB but in the corporate world, is you gain experience and build your resume with smaller employers and then use what you’ve gained for better opportunities with bigger employers …. which is EXACTLY what guys like Friedman and AA did.
Large market MLB teams poach proven talent because they want to win and they want proven HOBO with experience.
But NOT the Red Sox …. no, they instead are operating like a small market team by hiring two guys in a row with zero HOBO experience and NOBODY in-house to mentor them.
Who is Slaten?
Justin Slaten rule 5 pick from Texas for the Mets. Mets traded him to Red Sox for Ammons a 10th round pick in last years draft.
I missed that one. Thanks.
Stanek: “pedestrian season”, gave up a lot of walks. Well that’s a good way to put it!
I just got an email for a “full Throttle” shirt from Sully’s. Couldn’t stop laughing but I did question whether it was sincere or some of the finest sarcasm ever!!
sullysbrand.com/cdn/shop/files/FULL-THROTTLE_Shirt…
That is next level
Full throttle baby. Right off the waiver wire that is.
JoeBrady – Remember how many times I have explained how screwed up the Prospect Ranking systems are? Here is a link to the Pipeline Ranking System for the MLB. It explains the points I keep talking about and it should be obvious that none of it makes sense.
If you and I ranked the top 100 prospects along with 98 other guys and then someone calculated the ranking based on the MLB methodology, would you have any confidence in what it meant?. Did the team with the most points have the best farm system or simply the most popular farm system? If you are five points behind the team in front of you and then there is a gap of 50 to the next farm system on the list can you brag as the team right behind you that we are so close without knowing the specific numbers? No.
The numbers are all guesses and then they average the guesses and come out with a ranking that is meaningless because it’s averages of averages just like the modern metrics. You might as well bring 100 people together to guess how many times a coin flipped 100 times would come up tails. That guess would be the equivalent of the farm system rating. Just a bunch of meaningless averages calculated from 100 guesses.
mlb.com/news/mlb-clubs-with-most-preseason-top-100…
There are basically 3 levels to prospects, and their value is based nearly solely on those three things.
1) Those players are able to fill a need on the major league roster at some point at an elite level, league average level, or below league average level. Obviously, the results give them value, not the hypothetical results you think you may gain from them somewhere down the line. This is the hardest to judge prior (complete guess work) and the easiest to evaluate through time. Was the prospect successful? Did the organization get any value for its work in scouting and player development?
2) The prospects’ ability in a trade to bring in talent that is elite, league average, or below league average to fill a need at either the major league level, or minor league level. In the now, the talent that is traded for either example fills an immediate need, or depth. The vast majority of these players realistically are filling roster spots at the minor league level and will never add any value at the major league level. If they ever bring in talent that plays at the major league level you can refer to number 1 to see what value they added.
3) The vast majority of minor leaguers will fill a slot on a minor league roster and will simply allow a team to have minor league teams with filled rosters so they can play against other minor league teams. That will be the entirety of their value to the franchise. Any of them that are traded or make it to the major leagues can be judged by 1 or 2.
Because the percentage of players that make it to the major leagues in any capacity is fairly low you can also figure out failures as well as successes in hindsight. Did you trade prospects of value for players that gave you inferior returns. Were those moves advantageous when they were done specifically for the need they were done for? Did you release, or allow impactful prospects to get scooped up by other teams exposing your own system evaluators? Are they prospects you are bringing in through trades, rule 5, etc adding any real value or are your evaluators failing to identify impactful players?
You are 100% correct. The entire prospect evaluation system for prospects and teams systems is most magic 8 ball garbage. I understand the desire to have a current ranking, but realistically the official ranking should be done 5 or more years later. For instance, you should have a current ranking, but released with it should be the evaluation of what those prospects actually were, their value, and team ranking for the year 5 years prior. Those prospect ranking would shift dramatically, and team ranking would shuffle considerably. The added real-world accuracy of what really transpired vs what people thought might happen would paint a far better picture and give more accountability.
I forgot to mention, but along with the hindsight evaluation 5 years later should be the projected ranking, and prospect ranking list from the 5-year prior prospect ranking and team ranking lists so teams and fans can see how wildly wrong they were, or accurate they were. I would guess that most years that hindsight evaluation would be drastically different than the 5-year prior guess work rankings they put out. It would be very informative and really allow people to see how accurate the prognosticators are, and how teams are actually doing with real data instead of hypothetical guesswork.
William = Truly a masterpiece. I love reading something that is accurate and comprehensive about the game of baseball. Thank you.