Twins Acquire Manuel Margot

The Twins announced the acquisition of veteran outfielder Manuel Margot, infield prospect Rayne Doncon and cash from the Dodgers in exchange for minor league shortstop Noah Miller. Los Angeles is reportedly covering $6MM of Margot’s $10MM salary for the upcoming season. The Dodgers originally received $4MM from the Rays when acquiring Margot alongside Tyler Glasnow earlier this winter; Tampa Bay also remains on the hook for a $2MM buyout on a $12MM club option for 2025.

The Twins placed right-hander Josh Winder on the 60-day injured list to open a roster spot for Margot, announcing that Winder has a scapular stress fracture. His exact timeline in unclear but he’ll be ineligible to rejoin the club until late May at the earliest.

Minnesota has been on the lookout for a right-handed-hitting outfielder who could cover all three spots for much of the offseason. They’d previously been tied to free agents like Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernandez, and they’d also maintained an interest in re-signing Michael A. Taylor, who belted 21 home runs as a Twin in 2023. However, it seems they’ve found a deal to their liking on the trade front, presumably ending those free agent pursuits.

In Margot, the Twins are acquiring that righty bat they’ve been seeking but are also buying low on a player who’s been hampered by knee troubles dating back to the 2022 season. Margot missed roughly half of the ’22 campaign with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. He was limited to just 363 plate appearances and turned in a solid, if unspectacular .274/.325/.375 slash (101 wRC+). He followed that up with a .264/.310/.376 line in 336 plate appearances this past season.

Had Margot enjoyed a season of his typical defensive excellence in ’23, that offensive output would’ve made him an above-average all-around contributor. But in the wake of that knee injury, his once-elite defensive grades slipped closer to average. Statcast noted that Margot’s range and sprint speed both declined in 2023. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at -3 on the season, while Statcast’s Outs Above Average credited him at +3. Either way, it’s a notable drop for a player who posted 13 DRS and 16 OAA as recently as 2021. The Twins, presumably, are confident that as Margot distances himself from that knee injury, he can rebound in the field — if not back to peak form than at least to a clearly above-average defender at all three spots.

In Minnesota, Margot will provide the Twins with some insurance in the event of another injury to rarely-healthy center fielder Byron Buxton. Beyond that, he’ll give the Twins a righty bat that can spell lefty-swingers Matt Wallner and Max Kepler in the corners. Margot is a career .281/.341/.420 hitter (109 wRC+) against left-handed pitching, so he’ll likely see his fair share of pinch-hitting opportunities for a Twins club that tends to play matchups throughout the game. Margot can also serve as a late-game defensive upgrade in left over Wallner or a late-game pinch runner. Even with a downturn in his sprint speed, he still ranked in the 75th percentile of MLB players last year, per Statcast.

The Twins will also pick up Doncon, a 20-year-old infielder who signed with the Dodgers for just under $500K as an international amateur during the 2021-22 signing period. FanGraphs ranked him 12th among Los Angeles prospects as recently as last season, touting potentially plus raw power and an above-average hit tool as his best tools. The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him 19th among L.A. farmhands just last week.

Doncon has played shortstop, second base and third base in the Dodgers’ system and climbed as high as A-ball during 2023 — his age-19 season. He spent the entire year at that level and posted underwhelming numbers (.216/.283/.368) — but did so against much older competition. Scouting reports suggest he’ll have to move to either third base, second base or the outfield as he fills out his projectable 6’2″, 176-pound frame. Doncon possesses significant power potential but questions about his pitch recognition and eventual defensive home. He’s a couple years off from being a potential big league factor, but at this point he’s a more highly regarded prospect than Miller.

Doncon’s inclusion in the deal aligns with the Twins’ general M.O. in deals of this nature; Minnesota tends to push trade partners to include prospects of varying quality even when they’re the team acquiring the established player (e.g. Jose Salas in the Pablo Lopez trade, Gabriel Gonzalez in the Jorge Polanco deal, Ronny Henriquez in the Isiah Kiner-Falefa swap, Brayan Medina in the Chris Paddack trade, Francis Peguero in the Sonny Gray trade, etc.).

As for the Dodgers’ end of things, they’ll add a former supplemental first-rounder in the deal. Miller, 21, was the No. 36 overall pick by the Twins in 2021 but hasn’t lived up to that billing at the plate thus far. He’s regarded as a solid defender at shortstop but has posted only a .220/.326/.318 batting line in the minor leagues, including a .223/.309/.340 slash in High-A last year. Miller gives the Dodgers a glove-first shortstop option who can begin the 2024 season either with a second run at High-A or in Double-A. Even if his bat never comes around, there’s utility upside for Miller within the next few years based on the quality of his defense.

Like Doncon, it should be noted Miller’s pedestrian production in 2023 came against much older and more advanced competition. Both players were more than two years younger than the average player at their respective minor league levels. Neither needs to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft until after the 2025 season.

As with the Twins getting Doncon included in this deal, the Dodgers’ acquisition of Miller fits a recent pattern. Los Angeles has bought low on recent high-profile draftees that needn’t be added to their 40-man roster this winter while performing maintenance to make room for new acquisitions. In addition to Miller, the Dodgers picked up former Yankees first-rounder Trey Sweeney in their Victor Gonzalez swap and former Cubs second-rounder Jackson Ferris in trading away Michael Busch.

Perhaps most importantly for the Dodgers, the trade of Margot frees up a roster space. In that sense, this trade has largely facilitated the team’s re-signing of utilityman Enrique Hernandez to a one-year contract. The Twins had been in the mix to sign Hernandez and were reportedly one of four finalists. Instead they’ll go with a hitter who’s been more productive over the past few seasons and can capably fill the same role in the outfield, but lacks the infield versatility. Taking on $4MM of Margot’s deal makes the transactions cash-neutral for the Dodgers, who subsequently guaranteed Hernandez the same amount in free agency.

Juan Toribio of MLB.com first reported that Margot had been traded to Minnesota. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Miller was going back to Los Angeles. Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reported Doncon’s inclusion in the deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN added that the Dodgers were sending cash to the Twins as well. Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic first reported the Twins were taking on $4MM.