Free agent infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar and the Padres are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The MVP Sports Group client will be guaranteed $1MM, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post, with the deal still pending a physical. Profar can also add another $1.5MM via incentives based on plate appearances, per Murray.
It’s a bit of an early birthday present for Profar, who turns 31 next week. His career has been extremely up-and-down, something that MLBTR covered in 2022. Last year was another downswing on that sine wave, with 2023 his worst season to date. He opted out of his previous deal with the Padres at the end of 2022, taking the $1MM buyout instead of the $7.5MM salary. He lingered onto the market until the middle of March but did eventually get a one-year, $7.75MM deal from the Rockies, narrowly edging out the money he left on the table.
The move to Colorado didn’t suit Profar. His 18.2% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate were pretty close to his career norms, but he hit just eight home runs in 472 plate appearances. Given the expectations of the hitter-friendly environment at Coors Field, his tepid .236/.316/.364 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of just 72. His defense was graded poorly as well, and the Rockies released him in August. He returned to the Padres late in the year and finished strong, but in a small sample of just 14 games. FanGraphs considered him to be two wins below replacement on the year while Baseball Reference had him at -1.3 WAR.
Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was a key figure in the Rangers’ international scouting department when Profar originally signed and was eventually ranked the top prospect in all of baseball. Multiple shoulder surgeries have derailed his trajectory, but Profar has still shown inconsistent flashes of solid MLB production and Preller clearly still holds an affinity for him. This will be his fifth season suiting up for the Padres, for whom he carries a .246/.334/.376 batting line in 1321 plate appearances dating back to 2020.
From the team’s vantage point, Profar helps to fill a dire need for outfielders. Prior to this signing, San Diego only had two outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr. and light-hitting Jose Azocar. They’ve also been working top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill out in left field and could consider the 20-year-old as an outfield option at some point this season, should that experiment go smoothly, though as it stands Merrill has played just 46 games at the Double-A level and has not yet played a single game in Triple-A.
The Friars have also been working to cut payroll throughout the offseason, so securing Profar at barely more than the league minimum surely held appeal. Profar at least gives the Padres three big league outfielders on the 40-man roster, but his signing likely doesn’t rule out the addition of another more notable signing/acquisition who could push the 27-year-old Azocar into a fourth outfield role for which he’s better suited. With Profar added to the fold, San Diego’s payroll now sits at a projected $159MM, per Roster Resource — more than $90MM south of last year’s franchise-record $255MM mark. The Padres have about $215MM worth of projected luxury tax considerations, however.
In all likelihood, there are still some additions to be made by the Padres between now and Opening Day. Their outfield depth remains perilously thin, and they’ve reportedly been exploring both the trade and free agent markets for ways to change that. Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran is reportedly one potential target. The Padres also have questions in the fourth and fifth spots in their rotation, behind top starters Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Michael King. In-house options include Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Drew Thorpe, Matt Waldron, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and Glenn Otto, among others, but the Padres are also still looking into the lower tiers of free agency. They reportedly have some interest in Noah Syndergaard and in Michael Lorenzen.
They finally have a left fielder!
Why would a Yankees fan care about what the Padres do? Haha
Many people watch the game as a whole, not just one team.
Trying to figure out the bots and AI generated responses.
Half the time I’m conversing with fabricated, automated, artificial accounts.
Sports Illistrated proved the reality is a majority of the ‘conversions’ had these days are of the ‘artificial’ nature.
I’m sorry, but as an AI language model, I’m unab- I can’t type this with a straight face.
And the bots are programmed to disagree with you no matter what you say. If you say water is wet, you’ll guaranteed get someone arguing with you.
Soft water feels wetter than hard water.
My comment comment lacks artificial arugmentativeness.
So 99.99% of replies are bots then. Unfortunately, that’s not out of the realm of possibility to me.
Did somebody urinate in your Wheaties? Everybody loves San Diego Baseball!
I thought that was Mt Dew!
tia
“Why would a Yankees fan care about what the Padres do? Haha”
Some people are capable of caring about, multiple things and have the intellectual ability to pay attention to more than one thing
Hope,that helps
‘Caring about multiple things’
A rather robotic response, but ok
tia
“A rather robotic response, but ok”
Some fans like to know who’s on, you know, all the teams
“A rather robotic response, but ok”
What is this? The Red Scare? Stop being so paranoid
almost cut my hair, happened just the other day
As I was saying, AI.
No, CSNY
Or a 4th outfielder/utility player
Or another Padre to add additional friction when they go against LA.
How close is Profar to his 10 year pension?
He’s at 9 years 165 days (per B-R)
I’m not exactly sure of the rule for pensions, but he needs about a week for 10,years of service time
All roads lead to San Diego if your name is Jurickson Profar.
Padres keep trying to find a date to the prom year after year, and every time they default to Profar. As Richard Belzer said, “You can both do better.”
All former Preller Texas Rangers players eventually find the road back to AJ.
“I just can’t quit you”- AJ Preller, probably.
Well the J in AJ does stand for Jurickson
Mystery
Does the A stand for Azocar?
Antonius
I was rushing to type “I just can’t quit you” but benhen beat me…
Has to be one of the all time greatest baseball bromances.
Profar Tatis Azocar
Azocar is the superior defender, so he will be in CF and Tatis will be in RF.
Jurickson DID put in a lot of effort to sharpen his left field skills a couple of winters ago.
Boras and the opt out was unfortunate (well, stupid). His initial contract was horrible. He only paid for himself one year and then he opted out.
@hiflew
Tatis has about 10 games of experience in CF. Last I checked they give out GG’s for the position you play. He’s turned into an excellent RF but CF is much different. Azocar is definitely the better CF today.
“The better CF today”…Tatis is excellent in RF and with his injury history it makes no sense at all to put him in CF. I’m very confident this will not happen.
As far as a defense first / hope for average offense, I’m good with starting the year with Azocar and Mercado as CF and 4th OF.
I am hoping for Marsee to season for a couple of months and come up in June / July and take over CF for next 4-5 years!
I completely agree. I think he could probably be a plus CF with reps out there but definitely wasn’t suggesting that should happen.
Wasn’t stupid for Profar.
Didn’t Tatis win the Platinum Glove which basically calls him the best defender in the NL? Just casually calling someone a better defender probably doesn’t apply here.
Azocar is not a starter.
He shouldn’t be, I agree. I thought Jung Ho Lee was an ideal fit for them, but that opportunity passed.
For $18 million AAV most Padres fans are glad that the opportunity passed.
Time will tell.
1 year deal and the Padres?
“7 years and 200million”…I thought this was their campaign slogan??
You didn’t include “continual player opt-outs”
Preller’s extortion video no longer holds any power over the check writer. Releasing a compromised Seidler video posthumously would be in poor taste at this time.
I laughed when I saw the Profar jersey on the hook at Petco yesterday. Clearly I shouldn’t have laughed …
No, you can still laugh.
A major league deal? Schmucks
Padre for life
We have the most open 40 man spots still in the MLB. Minor/Major doesn’t matter at this point does it. $1m and $1.5m incentives is pretty much a minor league with a call up deal except he is already there…
Bummer. I was looking forward to a Duran, Azocar, Tatis outfield.
Still could happen, but probably wont bc I think Boston would ask for too much
Red Sox asked for Lesko. Padres countered with 2 prospects no one has ever heard of. The two teams have totally different ideas of Duran’s value. I agree with the Padres. He was exceedingly lucky at the plate last season and that luck will evaporate and with it his BA and OPS, he played below average defense, and is not young. To me, he is not worth much in trade.
Duran’s only value is his 5 years of club control. He hadn’t done much of anything before 2023 and even that was driven by a high BABIP.
If you agreed with the Padres, you would want him on your team.
But not enough to give up Lesko for him.
Give the fans Duran Duran
Whatever team adds Trevor is guaranteed a strong playoff run at the minimum if not a complete world series title.
Somebody let the A’s ownership know this.
Welcome home, Smiley!!!
if it’s a $1mil deal, as being reported, this does not close the door on another bigger signing or a trade. Azocar has to be a 4th OF at best.
Don’t forget that they’re broke. Hence, they sign a fringe big league infielder to be their everyday LF. Maybe not EVERYDAY…
I’m sure Los Pobres will try to limit his AB’s to help them save an extra $1.5 million.
A fringe big league infielder yes, but plays a perfectly capable LF. I’m no defense metrics whiz, but I would argue Profar played a better everyday LF in Petco than Soto ever did. And I’m painfully aware they’re broke. Hence, the argument that a $1mil contract doesn’t close any doors, even financially restrained doors.
It looks like they’re going to go with placeholders until the prospects are ready. Marsee & Merrill could be their best LF & CF options right now.
Padres are known to be aggressive with prospect timelines. Padres have roughly $15mil to spend with significant roster holes. Padres also have a good amount of minor league depth across all levels. This means each of 1. let the youngins play; 2. fill holes with dumpster FA signings; 3. trade for a more impactful bat, all still appear to be viable paths forward.
Isn’t that what Profar is, a 4th OF at best? I will never understand his fandom in SD. If Azocar is “light-hitting”, how do you describe Profar?
Padres’ best team of the last 15 years had Profar in LF everyday, and anecdotally he seemed like a good clubhouse presence. “Light-hitting” is a compliment for Azocar, he’s not an MLB-capable bat. While Profar has shown 20 HR power, has carried reasonable ratios over full seasons, he switch-hits, and he doesn’t strike out often. He’s a 3rd OF at best, but as it stands now, we’re gonna need him to be a 2nd.
The Padres are really obsessed with Profar…
If he can get on base at a .334 clip like he did previously with them, this is an awesome deal.
The Padres continue their misplaced obsession with Profar.
At least they have the contract more aligned. His first deal was an unnecessary overpay.
He had a 120 wrC+ in Petco when he came over at the end.
I am guessing it was mental. Screwed over by Boras and forced to join a team that has no possible way of competing (possibly ever)
I an guessing it was the product of a small sample size.
It’s worth a flier at this price. This such an odd team right now though with all the $ on the payroll and the clear & obvious holes. But at least they’ll have some prospects coming soon. They need them real soon.
@BrianS
Which team are you talking about, the Padres, the Yankees, or the Red Sox?
Red Sox with $155MM on the payroll definitely do not qualify. The Yankees have some holes but they have a clear direction. They definitely have 5 major league starting pitchers right now. I wouldn’t say SD does. SD doesn’t have a clear and obvious 1B/Dh\LF/CF answer either. Some prospects will inevitably fill that and they’ll probably add another vet somewhere. But that’s a crazy amount of uncertainty for a team that pushed chips in with these other moves the last few years.
The pads have LT money locked up but they have multiple positions where the answer is a fringe major leaguer right now. I don’t think any other team has those wide open holes while obviously in a window where they have to compete.
AJ has run out of Rangers to sign. Double dipping at this point.
Is Profar married to AJ Preller’s sister or his cousin or something like that lol!
That is the only way this makes sense.
Don’t want those relatives on your couch for very long lol!
Has he thought about converting to a pitcher?
Prof is projected by FGDC for a 93 wRC+ and .3 WAR
Padres playing for variation here. For basically no money they get a guy who might provide no value, but has a recent history (and with the Padres) of being a solid performer.
As a fringe playoff team, they need either clear upgrades, which they might not be able to afford, or variation.
Profar has been on a good year/bad year cycle every other season since 2018. He’s due for a solid year in 2024.
Profar is like a vampire. You’re gonna have to stake him through the heart to end his mlb career. 5 WAR for his entire career yet teams still come back to him.
A. J. Preller* still comes back to him.
@Astros2017&22Champs
He’s only 8% below league average by wRC+ for his career. And JAWS has him as the 312th best Left Fielder in the history of the game. He’s ranked higher than legendary players like Glenn Braggs & Herm McFarland.
Texas Rangers Mafia or they have an agreement with the Teamsters Union or something lol!
$1m is a good price tag for a guy with a 3 WAR two seasons ago. He was awful last year but solid the year before, definitely worth a flier for 1M. If he sucks, that is not much of a gamble. Could be useful utility player again.
He’s the epitome of an every other year player no?….Math says this a good year for him lol
Next, he will have to go to the Giants in even years only lol!
That’s enough, Augusto.
He was doing fine when he got back to SD for a few weeks in September. Short sample size but it’s what we have to look at. He was fine in 2022 as everyday LF. At 1 mil if he is an average of 23 and 23 for a couple of months while Marsee or even Merrill get some seasoning, it’s all good.
It’s not all you have to look at. You could look at his whole season. You could look at his whole career. You choose to look at only the small sample, because the rest is ugly.
Well, it’s the most recent which is good. Also, you have no credibility when you say the rest is ugly because his 2022 season wasn’t that bad at all and well, it was pretty recent.
You go ahead and focus on 5-6 years ago.
Hey, 10 years ago Ohtani couldn’t hit a home run off of mlb pitching or strike out an MLB batter.
Replacement level production would be great outta him
Jackson Profile returns!
He still made money by opting out.
The article says that…
I’m aware. The narrative on Padres social media is that Jurickson Profar lost money by opting out last offseason That narrative is not correct.
What/which/who Padres social media is saying that? Not attacking you Jimbo, just curious.
Jim the goat:Profar May have lost a lot of money by opting out.If he had stayed in SD it’s possible his numbers would have been much better…so he could have signed a much better deal this year.
No guarantee but he seems better in SD…so opting out could have cost him millions in ‘24
@mrpadre19 If you are going to argue based on assumptions favorable to your position there is really no point in engaging. But if he couldn’t hit in Coors Field what makes you think he’d have been so much better in Petco Park where hitters go to die?
The fact of the matter is the opt-out made Profar money.
@Gwynning We can start with 3 finger split in this thread.
I saw that Jim, perhaps I just assumed you meant legitimate Padre social media saying that. Carry on!
No. No one who collects a paycheck from Padres ownership if that’s what you’re asking.
@deGrom/Langford Texas Ranger (In Bauer We Trust)
There are 77 places called San Diego in the world.
Source: geotargit.com/called.php?qcity=San%20Diego
A lot of explorers had a fondness for whale vaginas.
We should change the name of the city to Saint Didacus.
Are the Padres long-term expected to keep all 3 big position player contracts (Machado/Tatis/Bogaerts) beyond ’24 as far as going for a WC berth & see what happens with the owner passing?
Just looking at the Cubs as strictly an example of deeper pocket team that doesn’t have a feared heart of order bat like Machado or Tatis if they dealt 1. Padres could figure out cash considerations to include & get near ready legit prospect or 2 back while reducing payroll.
Seems like they could reshape roster while remaining WC chase relevant.
The Padres keep all of the Big 3 (Machado/Tatis/Bogaerts). This is the year they need to reset the luxury tax limit due to the Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth contracts being back loaded. The Padres currently have a top 5 farm system so the need is for MLB players, not more prospects. AJ will trade for a 3 yr control arb SP at TDL or 2025 like he did for Snell, Musgrove, and Clevenger.
Harold Ramirez is still an option in the right trade with the Rays to add a very good DH that they can still use and who is passable (on occasion in LF) and at first base..
Harold Ramirez would be an awesome get for SD, I’ve been thinking that too!
Profar is a good teammate. He gives a quality at bat…aka battles. Hopefully he will be a positive player this year. 1m deal means if he isn’t then no biggie.
The his had to be about the most predictable signing of the offseason.
What I found not so predictable was how inexpensive he was. A veteran presence, a bridge to mid-season OF call-ups.
Yeah, I was thinking 2.5 ish (which probably means 3.5).
Now sign 1 of Ryu or Lauer and 1 of Lorenzen or Cueto and maybe both Voto and Cooper (at least 1 though) for the other 9 mil and SD at least has a roster.
Probably no more FA signings coming. Just trades.
Lauer wouldn’t cost much
Hopefully trades. Not a lot of value FAs out there
Ryu / Cooper on the cheap is enough value with upside to fill holes until either: (1) trade deadline if in contention or (2) when prospects might have seasoned enough to give a shot.
I just can’t say which 3-5 prospects I’m ready to part with right now when 1 or 2 guys aren’t really enough to put us in the WS conversation.
Prospects are suspect for sure but Luzardo doesn’t make SD a WS contender by himself.
I’m saying out of our top 10 suspects, there is a real fair shot that 2-3 are stars and 2-3 are useful pieces.
I’m afraid the wrong guys get traded for what turns out to be 2-3 years of a maybe #2 SP thst costs a lot in arbitration preventing maybe another acquisition.
At some point, developing the farm to fill 6-8 spots on the 26 man has to be done to manage existing contracts.
We have about as good of a top 10 as anyone in mlb.
Now, if in contention at deadline because a few guys pull a Lugo/Wacha/Sanchez, then ok on a trade.
Just my preference for the next 6 months.
AJ and trades go together like honey on a hot biscuit so, you probably get your wish.
Good post LTC. We have so many “untouchables” right now… imo o/c. I personally wouldn’t move anyone out of our entire Top 8. I would dangle Pauley (blocked everywhere on the dirt but might have a decent stick) or Martorella (same story) and see what kind of player you could procure. Odds and ends can be added, i.e. add Eguy if it hammers home the deal. I would NOT ship any of our arms right now; they’re a special group that is coming relatively quickly.
Merrill is blocked in the Padres org (especially if they extend Kim) but Padres fans FUME when I say that.
If Kim is extended or retained post-’24 (CBT reset purposes) then I definitely see Merrill move to the grass AND Bogey takes over at 1st. Kim would be the presumptive SS going forward. He is the best SS on the roster rn.
I agree with you on the “if” unless, they use such an extension to justify trading Merrill which, I for one will not prefer at this point.
I’d also add that X won’t like going to 1b based on his prior comments about a move.
All in all, Kim traded at deadline with Merrill at 2b in 2023 is most likely scenario I think.
Get a good prospect / mlb ready guy for Kim, use the $$ to go towards a sign of a TOR next year.
Martorello or Pauly or Cro at 1b in 25. X at 2b and Merrill at SS – just my preference. There are a few other machinations in play.
X has come around a little to the inevitable position change. I mean, I’m not speaking for the guy, but he did say he’d be more inclined for 2B but Croney is so good there. Let’s see what he’s says during ST to really gauge the situation. 1B makes the best long term sense, to me, for X. Lots of inevitable roster churn and movement though, yeah. None of us know, we’re just rappin’! Absolutely LOVING the farmhands we got coming though. So stoked on the kids rn.
LT. I’m even more bullish on this group of Padre prospects than you.
Here’s my way-too prediction:
Future all stars: Salas, Lesko, DeVries
Future starters who have above average careers and might make AS team at least once: Snelling, Merrill
Future solid MLB: Iriarte, Head, Thorpe, Marsee, JD Gonzalez
Decent MLB role players: Brandon Valenzuela, Pauley, Zavala, Vasquez, Martorella, Eguy
Wild cards with upside: Mazur, Bush Jr, Bergert, Hawkins, Lowe, Lizarraga
I’m even more bullish, Brew! Upgrade half the guys to the next bracket above and just add all the Decents to Solids! Solid assessment though broski
“Merrill is blocked in the Padres org…”
Really? Because he is a SS prospect? Do you know who else on the Padres was a SS prospect? Tatis-RF, Profar-LF, Machado-3B, Bogaerts-SS, Kim-2B, and Cronenworth-1B. Every starting player on the field, outside of their C, is a former SS prospect. Merrill is anything but blocked.
@Javia135 Just out of curiosity do you believe that Preller would have never traded for Tatis if he hadn’t traded Trea Turner for Wil Myers first?
Yeah I keep forgetting about Bergert.
He is a wildcard for a rotation spot.
Javia – I think from the totality of all those guys having all of the spots, he could be “right now” blocked but not when Kim leaves.
@PadresWSChamps2024
Yes, I believe that Preller would have traded for Tatis whether or not he had already traded Trea Turner. Preller has had an obsession with SSs that probably far predates his Padres tenure.
@Longtimecoming
The Padres have filled 7 of their 9 open positions with former SS prospects and 1 Catching prospect. Now Preller still needs to fill CF and DH. Just judging from his history, I think that it is pretty likely that he fills either CF or DH with Merrill. Most likely DH, since Merrill is a top rated bat with only above average defense. Or Merrill can take over LF after or even during this upcoming season. It isn’t like Profar is going to block him.
Javia, as nicely as Merrill (age 20) has progressed, I’d sure be surprised if they fill an OF spot with him this year, unless it’s late August/September. He’s logged just 187 ABs at AA, with just 5 games in the OF. Most rushed rookies don’t provide difference-making ML ABs anyway, so I don’t see the big gain. I feel the same about Marsee. If they don’t trade for an OF, Mercado is more likely to be rostered OD than the rookies. I still think they might do a trade though. We’ll see!
I agree Brew. I don’t think the Padres should bring either Merrill or Marsee up until later in the year, and then only if they have earned it. I was just saying that Merrill isn’t blocked.
BS AAA is a storage parking lot for injury insurance veteran players.
Many of the top MLB prospects are promoted from AA directly to MLB and never look back.
Merrill is ready.
Call him up and have him start the season in left field.
I would bet $100.00 that he hits more than Profar even
out of Spring Training and at the beginning of the season going forward.
Profar is a 5th or 6th OF.
Padres hide too many players in the minors who are ready to play in the majors for most other major league teams.
The Padres should have been playing CJ Abrams fulltime and then maybe they would not have foolishly traded him for Soto who took close to a year to start hitting in San Diego.
I disagree. Call both of them up right out of Spring Training and let them learn and get acclimated to major league pitching. They have been playing ball their entire lives.
All legitimate baseball diamonds are the same dimensions, just with more fans.
Otherwise, the Padres fall into the same, failed cycle and feel compelled to trade their future stars for over the hill retreads who are expensive, in their decline years and will not win them a Championship,.
Go Sportsfanooo go! Let’s bring up DeVries now and make him the 4th SP
That top #1 Padres Internationally signed catching prospect 17 year old Ethan Sallas is @ AA right now.
Promote him before the All Start break or sooner.
He will be what? 18 in June?
Time to get him prepped for the pennant race in ’24!
when he reaches the big leagues
He is ready right now!
Padres delayed Campusano’s major league development by rotating old, declining veterans through the catching position who either couldn’t hit or couldn’t field or both.
Make Campusano your rotating 1B/ DH Catcher.
DH since he can really hit!
Age is just a number on a calendar.
Either they can play or they can’t play.
Find out now!
The young, hungry, players are, most often the guys
who help the team blast into a hot start and catch the Dodgers.
The Dodgers let a bunch of their top farm hands play, take over key positions and have never missed a beat in 10+ years.
Padres Front Office, development and managers have been too timid with development, promotion of players and patience in letting promoted players get comfortable and excel in the big leagues.
It is long overdue for the Padres to change their ultra conservative policies about promoting and playing their top young talent.
The two times the Padres made the World Series, those teams were not afraid to promote their young talent.
I have been studying LHSP Robbie Snelling on you tube videos also. That guy is a stud starting pitcher.
I would love to see Snelling get a crack at the Padres rotation also asap.
Again, hiding your top prospects @ AAA or AA or on the bench ot at the back of the bullpen is disservice to the Team, the players, the fans and ownership.
If he pitches in the majors the way he pitches right now in the minors then Snelling could help a lot and THIS YEAR!
There is a reason why you don’t have a job working in player development with a MLB team. I won’t bother to explain why because it won’t matter. You are too far gone.
You can’t rely on a 20 year old with 100 professional innings to pitch deep into a season. Smelling will probably get a look but if the Pads are going anywhere he’d have to be a reliever down the stretch.
Ethan Salas isn’t even 18 yet, had a .517 OPS in AA in 2023 and can’t be Rule 5 eligible until after the 2027 season. He shouldn’t get called up at all this year.
They proffered Profar a deal.
For $1M can’t be upset, he’s a good depth/ versatile depth piece, just hope this isn’t who they expect to be their starting LF.
He was their starting LF when they made it to the NLCS in 2022.
I feel like alot of people are forgetting this team has Tatis, Machado and Bogaerts on it? Mix in Kim and Campusano and you’ve got 5 potentially well above average players in the lineup everyday.
Profar doesn’t need to hit .300 or land 25 homers, he just needs to play league average for $1.5m
Pitching is Pads Achilles. Lost 3 starting Ps n a cpl of main bullpen cogs. They got hitters. Need pitching
Assuming Suarez (or one of the other options) can do a half decent job closing games their bullpen is better than last year.
It’s true they lost Wacha and Lugo who were really good in 2023, hopefully King can take up the slack some.
Given the current free agent market, I’m not assuming they’ve lost Snell just yet.
I think Blake snell is getting way less than he wants but all indications are that the pads will not or cannot exceed the lux tax.
I said what I said.
Given what the Dodgers are doing with buy now pay later contracts, I wouldn’t rule anything out. Preller has to fight back. If Snell is given the choice between taking $$$ from the Angels or going back to SD on some kind of wild clever deal which do we think he would pick?
If someone had offered him $210m over 7 years he’d be signed already, so we can assume at this point Snell/ Boras need to get creative.
$30m for 5 seasons with a player option for 5 more at $7m each makes an AAV of $18.5m and keeps the Padres below the tax. See how easy this is when you’re wiling to bend the rules?
I think if Snell gets to the point where he’s taking a pillow deal then we should have 5-6 teams interested. I mean it’s a possible that they do that but is Blake going to be willing to defer cash? I don’t think Pads want another $30MM cash payment for next year either. I’m not sure that it’s just luxury tax maneuvering here.
I don’t think Blake Snell is the fix all here either. They’ll need some depth. Particularly so if you’re going for it hard in ‘24 by signing snell. I think it’s a long shot.
The terms I described pay him $30m a year for 5 years, no waiting to get paid on his part. After that he opts out and goes and gets whatever he can on the open market. for his age 36+ seasons.
If there are 5-6 teams looking at paying him $30m per year I’d love to know who they are.
It’s a long shot no doubt, but honestly the Padres are screwed payroll wise for the next decade, people keep talking like their payroll and CBT issues are short term, they are not. IMO they should just throw all the $$$ they can afford at it now while they still have Kim and while Machado/ Bogaerts are in their prime. The way they have stayed WELL clear of the CBT level has me thinking they will score something bigger than people expect.
I would think the only way Snell is signing for that is if he has a chance to opt out. But you’re right—- I don’t think 5-6 teams will give him 5/150 right now. Probably 5-6 teams that would give him 3/90-100 with an opt out though. I guess if he’s willing to sign that kind of a deal then there’s a chance that he comes back. I can’t imagine SDP wants to give him 5/150 plus a first season opt out though. Guess it comes down to what Blake’s compromise will be.
I never thought the Pads would trade Soto because their payroll is so jammed up, and they have guys who are exiting their prime soon on LT deals….I feel like they’re going to see where they are with some smaller additions, and assess at the deadline if they can go for it.
I suspect MLB pretty much forced them to trade Soto. The MLB rule regarding borrowed money vs salary seems like it left them no choice.
That rule got swept under the rug pretty quick. but it basically sounded like owners who have the $$$ to run their team in the red on a cash basis are free to spend whatever they want while those who have to borrow todo it aren’t allowed. Not sure how that equates to a level playing field but the Dodgers and Yankees are cool with it so apparently MLB just hopes noone notices.
Had the rule not existed, I think there was a big chance the Padres would’ve kept Soto and probably at least one of Wacha/ Lugo. After 2024 they would’ve lost Soto & Kim but at least they would’ve taken one more legendary swing at a WS ring before the inevitable downfall those LT deals present.
I can think of a couple other ways they could have shed that salary without trading their best hitter who they just traded their whole farm for less than 18 months prior.
The first Soto trade will compete for worst trade in MLB history.
Trading Soto 18 months after they got him is a pretty clean glimpse into the Padres front office. Most of the time noone can make heads or tails of what they are doing.
I for one think Preller has totally worked out that his organization cannot actually develop talent. Thus the only way for him to keep his job is using the hype around said prospects to trade them.
The Soto deal was a very dumb move from the get-gO.
It was a reckless move that jeopardized the competitive future of the Padres who must have a pipeline of talent coming to the majors every year or they cannot reasonably compete with the Dodgers and the Giants.
Without the failed Soto deal, the Padres would
have a pipeline brimming with young, high upside, cost controlled talent,
Abrams would be playing LF or CF if the Soto deal had not happened.
And, perhaps Merrill would be in @ 2B opening up trade possibilities for more starting pitching with Cronenworth or Kim.
And, LHSP McKenzie Gore would be in the Rotation and cost controlled.
And, OF/CF James Wood @ AA could take over in CF or LF bumping Abrams to CF.
@99socalfrc Then bring in coaches/trainers/development guys who know what they’re doing.
And don’t give me that BS about hindsight being 20/20.
This is not hindsight/
I was saying and posting the same thing
before, during and after the Soto trade.
Look it up if you have time on your hands.
Absolutely!
That would be money well spent.
Would love to see some top coaching and development talent “coaching up” the Padres prospects and players to their maximum talent level and performance!!!
How do you figure they can sign Snell to a $30MM cash salary if they “had to” trade Soto though?
I’m not saying you’re wrong about the debt issue but signing Snell would replace Soto’s salary and create a larger future liability. Unless Snell wanted to defer money out for years—-can’t see how that would make MLB happier w/ the pads financial position.
I don’t know the exact numbers behind the debt issue, but the Padres have dropped something like $90 million off last years payroll. That seems like a drastic reduction to still not be able to add $30m back. Who knows what they were banking on trimming when they traded Soto. Even the modest amount of spend you’d expect (resigning Wacha or Lugo??) didn’t happen They also dropped Nick Martinez salary when he opted out. They saved money on the Barlow trade, saved money on the Carpenter trade.
The debt rule is clouded in mystery. Maybe if we knew the truth it would show how outmatched small market teams are spending wise. Owners have teams that are appreciating in value like hotcakes but MLB limits their spend to some ratio of cash on hand. Perhaps some owners aren’t as “cheap” as we all think, but rather their hands are tied
Padres HAVE a pipeline of talent brimming with young, high upside, cost controlled talent.
Their farm ranks 6th in MLB, they have 13 prospects of their top 15 in AA or above, and they have 15 prospects in the BA top 200.
For that price, I was hoping the DBacks would’ve been in on him, but good on the Padres for getting a good deal.
People forget that he signed so late last year, I remember him signing and then being on the field (batting leadoff) for opening day like 12 hours later. That is not really a great way to get acclimated to a new team.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think he can do better this year. At this price tag all the Padres really need him to do is play average MLB defense in LF, fill in if Cronenworth sucks again at 1B and give professional at bats. He did all of this for them in 2022.
hurray, I’m going to rush out and buy my Jurickson Profar jersey now, said nobody ever,
$1 million? Guessing they view him as a replacement level player and he just really wanted to be a Padre.
Didn’t you say a team isn’t allowed to sign Profar to a major league contract for less than $6m because he made $7.5m in 2023? What happened?
“Really wanted to be a Padre”…After his rough season last year the Pads were probably the only team to offer a ML deal and guaranteed money.
Most likely.
He has been saying all off season that he wanted to “come back home”. Now he is and for a price that is so low that as a depth piece he might offer some value.
Come on Tow, give a little credit for a reasonable FA signing to meet their needs.
No disrespect, but I believe it’s 4th down and a mile for Tow. He’s punting on ’24.
Please rediscover even 65% of your 2022 production. At least RUSH HOUR is back in business (HSK + JP)
Guess Duvall and Michael Taylor really didn’t want to come to SD. At least it’s not Pham I guess; that could have been much worse.
Duvall and Michael Taylor are going to cost way more than this and so is Pham.
Profar is fine as depth but honestly any of those 3 would be better options as regulars in the OF.
For a million bucks can’t go wrong. Unless he plays like he did last year. Then perhaps you could…..
No surprise here. The team needed a low cost (very) veteran OF/IF who can fill in where needed and add some depth. He’s a friend to a lot of guys on the team so no worries about “chemistry”., right Kevin A?
Profar and Azocar in 8/9; Kim and Tatis in 1/2 – a little speed on the base paths a few times during a game.
I wouldn’t rule out another OF pick up, especially bringing some slug, though the priority (with remaining $) still has to be a quality LH SP. I’m also not sure Azocar is their OD CF, hope not.
I don’t prefer Azocar as opening day CF but, I’d say SD will have at least 2 question marks – at least 1 SP and 1 regular.
With that being said, if Azocar on OD is the biggest question mark from the regulars and this allows for Marsee to still be at AAA for 2-3 months of seasoning, I can accept Azocar (or Mercado as the case may play out) as OD CF.
Give him 3-4 weeks regular ABs and see what happens.
Last year it was Carp/Cruz in the DH spot.
Part of my take factors in what I’m willing to accept for the first 30-45 games as opposed to what we thought we had in 2023 with a great “on paper” team that didn’t do well early. If not for SP wow, how big of a hole would there have been!
Definitely more long game for me right now.
By long game if you mean one year, then I’m sort of with ya. But as long as they have significant long term investments in stars/aging vets (Joe, Manny, Tati, Yu, Bogey etc…) they can’t really justify thin SP or position players with sub 0.700 career OPS for long. I like the Profar signing as a cheap short term utility depth piece because I don’t think they can expect anything dazzling from the farm this year, we will see glimpses, but no major contributions. 2025 more. 2026 big
Yeah, that huge prospect class is all end of 24 to 25 so they will be ready to fill holes this time next year and should be quality.
This was the guy that this site and a lot of people on it was saying was going to get a long term, big money contract last offseason. How the mighty have fallen.
Profar is the classic example of the FA musical chairs game…everyone that hasn’t signed yet is just trying to find a seat before the music stops. Profar HAD a two year deal for 15 million plus but took bad advice and opted out. Yes he got a 1 million dollar buyout and a 7.75. Million deal from the Rockies but signing for 1 million this year still leaves him about 5-6 million short of what he could have had.
He knows how to play LF at Petco, switch hitter and can also play 2nd base as well as 1b so he slots in nicely for the Padres and given the good attitude in the clubhouse he will be fine.
Azocar is a defensive player only because he has SO many holes in his swing that he would have a hard time hitting water if he fell off a pier.
Marsee is already better than Azocar and it’s about time the Padres actually play the young guys they drafted…Marsee, Merrill, Pauley to name a few…all controllable for years to come and making ML minimum to offset the huge contracts already on the books including Hosmer at 12.5 million and out of baseball but that’s a story for another day
Last season Profar signed after camp opened. Azocar is a good hitter, he just has no power at all. His projections are .251/.309/.381/.689 which is as good or better than Grisham
@3 finger split Opting out was outstanding advice for Profar. His player option was for $7.5m with a $1m buyout so only a $6.5m decision. He then signed for $7.75m with the Rockies. So he is $1250k ahead of what he would have had. You are wrong and you should feel bad.
Lol
You forgot the 6 million mutual option he had for 2024 and even if the Padres declined their side of the option the word was they would have brought him back at 4.75 million instead of the 1 million he signed for so no I don’t feel bad…if you’re going to pop off at least know what you’re talking about
@3 finger split I didn’t forget about it at all it’s just not relevant. Mutual options get declined 99.99999999% of the time. And the way he played last year they absolutely would not have brought him back for $4.75m.
Profar made the right choice by opting out after 2022. Deal with it.
Pads signed Profar for the most money that I thought he was worth. On Padres Twitter they say he is worth $1 million just based on VAR or Vibes above replacement.
Profar as a Padre – .246/.334/.376/.710 and a 102 OPS+
Overall the last 3 seasons – .239/.327/.366/.693 and a 92 OPS+
A serviceable #4 OF.
Not the biggest Profar guy but $1m in baseball salary terms is basically nothing. Hope we get 2022 Profar instead of 2023.
The bad news is SD still only has 3 OFs on their 40-man. I know they’re converting another one of their 23 shortstops in the organization to OF, but you’re not gonna make it through a season – or even a month – without constantly combing the waiver wire for OF bodies.
Good signing.
Profar is an OK 5th or 6th OF and utility guy.
There were better options out there for the Padres.
The Padres should be starting their top prospect SS Jackson Merrill
@ SS, 2B or in LF in ’24.
Xander B should be playing LF or 2B in ’24
Kim is a gold glover SS/2B
Padres should concentrate on finding a better, young 2 way CF.
Padres may need to make a trade (Cronenworth or Kim)
to fill other holes like CF.
Never underestimate the value of Ex Rangers drafted by AJ Preller. He loves those Ex Rangers.
It may be a fair price for a utility guy, but his best days are behind him.
Profar is not a starting position player in MLB for any other team.
Why in the world would they trade proven veteran players? Padres strength is how many prospects they have. Prospects that turn into decent MLB players less than 20% of the time. Other than Salas, DeVries, and maybe Snelling, there are no untouchables in the Padres system including Merrill.
They already did that (Soto)
De Vries can’t be moved, but we all know he wouldn’t be on the market anyhow.
Not hankering for them to trade Leo de Vries but when ARE they officially allowed to do that? Dodgers traded Yordan 2 months after signing him.
I am pretty sure international free agent signings can be traded. Tatis was at same age.
Slight difference between the two has been noted by BiL- Yordan was a IFA signing, Leo was an International Prospect Day sign. IFAs can be traded at any point whereas Prospects have to stay in your system for *that* year. Soonest Leo *could* be traded is 5 days after the Fall Classic, so after “this year” ends.
I don’t know if there’s a waiting limit on trades for IFA so you could be right.
Tatis was same age, but he was a little different because he was a 2015 signee and was traded mid 2016, so he was in the White Sox org for like almost a calendar year even though he hadn’t played in any games for them yet.
You have to weigh what they would get back if they traded some of their prospects versus one of their veterans.
If you could work a “win/win”
deal with another MLB ballclub that “matches up” with both teams needs, then you would have to seriously look at that kind of deal.
Such a deal would move some of the Padres “surplus, young talent but maintain the bulk and integrity of your farm pipeline, and that brings back young, producing players who are ready to compete in the major leagues for the playoffs now etc., then your team would have to consider that kind of a move.
I proposed a deadline deal last trade deadline that probably would have helped the Padres make the playoffs.
A Top of the rotation (#1 or #2 young cost controlled starter for at least 3 years, maybe 3 1/2 or 4 and a few other , young “win now players (OF, relief pitcher both cost controlled) for SS Merrill, LHSP Robbie Snelling) and a package of other young players on both sides.
A team might even take Jake Cronenworth and a chunk of his salary back if the young talent going their way was worth their while.
If the Padres were to get a young, stud starter who could be a potential #1 or #2 starter who has not yet hit his peak earning years plus patch a few other holes with young cost controlled players ready to plan and win now, and if they traded to a team that had needs that the Padres could fill with young talent
then, it could work as a “win/win” for both sides.
I wouldn’t give up young catcher Ethan Salas.
But for the right players I would consider moving SS Merrill,
LHSP Snelling and maybe even catcher Campusano for the right return that would make the Padres a serious playoffs contending team right now.
Profar and San Diego. Death and taxes.
Just need Duvall to sign with Atlanta and the circle will be complete.
I hope the circle stays broken… if only because I still want Duvall in SD! Haha
A good depth signing considering the $, lefty bench options, and the current state of the OF. Could still use 1 or 2 more OF and SP, ideally more lefties. Would love to see Choi, Ryu, and Lauer on bounceback deals.
I feel like the negotiations were fairly simple. Take the million or ride the bus. He took the deal with the only gm in the league who has an ounce of faith in him. Things just keep looking up for you prellar. When are the fans going to storm the stadium and demand his head on a stake for what he’s done in what little time in San Diego.
Next is Robbie Grossman at 1 year, $2.5M.
Wasn’t Profar #1 overall prospect cpl yrs in a row. All the rage 4spell.
Yes but it was more like 6 years ago. Then he developed the yips.
The Padres have had seasons with worse Left fielders than Profar, when he was in SD. Maybe the magic will return in SD for Profar this year, too. Hope so, for both the team and his own benefit. SD right now as configured, with Schildt as manager, is a good place for him to land.
On the other hand, the Padres have at least five all star position players, and two or three solid rotation starters. Backfilling the roster on a lean budget with one more 4th or 5th starter, maybe a DH type, shouldn’t be that tough. Plus, the Padres actually have some talent who should be able to fill in some of the rest of their roster gaps. (No, they may not be the Padres TOP prospects, yet, but that’ doesn’t necessarily make them trash.)
Given the alternatives of busting the budget, thus putting the Padres in a (bigger) salary hole for multiple years, or trading the farm for a journeyman pitcher or outfielder, I like the current approach. If the Pads jell like 2023, or if they experience key injuries (e.g. Darvish, Musgrove, Tatis, Manny, etc.), it won’t matter anyhow. If they come together like a 2020 or 2022, and perhaps Preller can still add one or two additions, they they’ll be both competitive next year, and in the playoffs at the end of the year.
Even trading prospects from a point of strength, or redundancy, is a risk I’d prefer the Padres not take at this point. 5-star prospects (Profar is a good example) can flame out, and 10 round draft picks can pick up the slack, ~~ IF ~~ the team hasn’t traded them all way (e.g. River Ryan).
Prospects are all suspects until you see them do it in the majors and only 1 in 5 ever do it a level higher than replacement level.
If your GM has a shot to get a guy like they got in Snell or Musgrove that has several years of control left, he has to take that shot rather than waiting on a long shot to hit.
I agree. However, the only way that the Padres are going to be able to balance out salary, stay under the lux tax penalty (and keep their future prospects), is by signing fewer Bogaerts while developing more prospects. I like AJP’s logic, i.e. grab the stars when they become available because stars aren’t frequently traded. The $half-billion contracts are starting to MAKE these kinds of guys available as F.A.’s, but how many of those guys are affordable for most teams? It’s an overgeneralization, but it’s seems that there were DECADES of Padres history when they fielded teams without a single star position player or starter. Now, they have a half dozen of those guys, with promising prospects on the way (yeah, we didn’t have those, either).
AJP is a “rock star” GM because of the Martinez, Wacha, and Lugo signings all working out. (The same people who criticize AJ for signing these guys with easy opt-outs, never give him the credit for luring these guys, and identifying the RIGHT guys to lure, in the first place). Ditto with the Musgrove and Darvish trades (though Darvish has always made me a little nervous, more so now that the Padres are on the hook with him until his early age 40’s).
Yep, all prospects are suspects, but if the Padres can’t develop and promote 3 or 4 of them, who can provide meaningful support for the 5 years before free agency, future years with aging stars locked into long term contracts, will become pretty grim.
Now’s the perfect year to start the prospect train moving. Promote ’em, see what they’ve got, or trade them if the Padres really don’t believe in them, before they drop in value. Take Campusano for example. Let’s just assume that his work last year is his mean, that he’ll only get better from here on out. The Padres signed him in 2017, SIX YEARS ago. How many good years will he be able to put in for the Pads before either arbitration or pending F.A. makes him too expensive (Spotrac says 2025 is his first arbitration year).?
Use the prospects. One way or the other, use ’em or trade them, but fill at least 15 roster positions with productive guys making less than $1M.
The problem is that to develop one All Star level player like Snell or Musgrove, you need to start with 20 Top 100 prospects.
All it takes to trade for that level of player is one top 100 prospect and a couple lower level prospects.
The problem is also that after one accumulates prospects and trades them all for a roster of all stars, one doesn’t exist in a Padre economy, or I should say a non- Dodger economy. Salt’s just saying there needs to be a balance
“The problem is that to develop one All Star level player like Snell or Musgrove, you need to start with 20 Top 100 prospects.”
Surely not. Ask Andrew Friedman about that one.
Numbers are cut and dried. Over the time BA has been releasing Top 100 lists we know exactly what the numbers of players that have made it to the majors are and what their production has been.
You could also look at MLB.com numbers, but they have not been doing it as long. The numbers are close to identical, just over a shorter time frame.
I’m very happy about this. Profar can replace Soto in Left Field. Finally have a left fielder on the roster. Welcome back Profar!!