As the calendar flips to March, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world headed into the weekend:
1. When will the remaining free agents sign?
A whopping seven free agents in MLBTR’s annual Top 50 remain on the open market. That list includes not only three of the so-called “Boras Four” in Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Matt Chapman, but also a pair of quality DH candidates in J.D. Martinez and Brandon Belt along with a pair of solid #4 starters in Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen. By contrast, the only player in last offseason’s top 50 who remained on the open market into march was veteran outfielder Jurickson Profar. There’s other quality free agents who didn’t make our offseason Top 50 that remain on the market as well, such as veteran outfielders Tommy Pham and Adam Duvall. While it seemed as though outfielder Cody Bellinger accepting a short-term deal with the Cubs earlier this week could’ve signaled the dam breaking on remaining free agents, so far that hasn’t come to fruition. Will the remaining players available begin putting pen to paper with Opening Day now less than a month away?
2. Yankees, Red Sox in the market for bench bats?
With so many free agents still available, its no surprise that clubs are still looking to upgrade their rosters even with Spring Training in full swing. That appears to be true of both the Yankees and the Red Sox as things stand, with Boston reportedly interested in adding depth to their position player mix. The club appears to prefer adding a right-handed bat to complement their bevy of left-handed options for the lineup, as they’ve been linked to the likes of Garrett Cooper and Gio Urshela over the past week before they signed with the Cubs and Tigers, respectively.
In the Bronx, meanwhile, the Yankees were a finalist for utility man Enrique Hernandez according to Hernandez himself, suggesting the club is interested in finding a possible alternative to youngster Oswald Peraza on the club’s bench. That could leave the longtime rivals to compete over the remaining bench bats on the free agent market, particularly those with right-handed bats and experience on the infield dirt. The likes of Donovan Solano, Elvis Andrus, and Jean Segura remain on the market as players who check those boxes and could be plausible targets for either club.
3. Brash updated expected today:
The Mariners are reportedly concerned that right-hander Matt Brash could face an extended absence due to as-of-yet unspecified arm troubles. Clarity on Brash’s health and timetable for return could be on the horizon, however, as reporting yesterday indicated that the club hopes to have a formal update regarding the righty as soon as today. Brash, 26 in May, led the majors with 78 appearances last year and dominated in doing so, posting a 3.05 ERA and a sterling 2.26 FIP in 70 2/3 innings of work while striking out opponents and a fantastic 34.7% clip. A lengthy absence from Brash would remove one of the most promising arms from Seattle’s bullpen, though the club enjoys considerable depth in that area with the likes of Andres Munoz, Gregory Santos, and Greg Speier also available for late-inning duty.
Let not forget Joseph Daniel Votto..
I respect Votto after watching him beat up on my Pirates for the better part of two decades, and he probably deserves better than how this offseason has treated him. There are still a month worth of preseason injuries to happen, and Joey will probably find a home if or when a team finds themselves down a few DH options or needs a passable 1B for a few months.
It’s his age. Teams are so analytical now and aging curves are a huge determining factor in their projections, he’s likely being viewed as a close to replacement DH. I’m sure if he’d take a minor league contract with a spring training invite he’d already have that. He could still have a year left of being useful, but that trend is getting more pronounced each year.
A career walk-rate of 15.6% (closer to 20% in his prime) needs to be taught to today’s hitters. That’s twice Gwynn’s career walk-rate (7.7%), which probably speaks more about Gwynn’s ability to put bat on the ball.
I second this motion: Gwynn had premier hand-eye skill and was thus too good at contact to “take walks”
I don’t disagree, I also think teaching more players to make more contact would be refreshing.
It was his era, and he had a playing style that fit his skillset. If he had played like modern players he may not have been as good. Ichiro talked about that, how he hit the way he did because it suited his skillset.
Extremely valid point(s), Bloomer. I wanted to add-on the ‘era’ aspect but you beat me to it. Cheers all
Agreed, that’s why the comp is unfair to both, but I was curious. The leader in walks in ’23 was OAK (Billy Beane still at it…) with 10.9% (SF was last with 6.7%).
Walks have been a bit down from recent history league wide, but strikeouts are near historic levels and power has tailed off a bit. It may be what works best per some calculation to front office makes, and may even be the correct strategy in today’s game, but it is not the most visually appealing baseball, swing for the fences or die trying.
@bloomquist4hof It’s his lack of performance. One good year in the last 5 (!), and that year was not 2022 or 2023.
The problem with being very old in baseball years is that very old players rarely, rarely get better, and Votto’s turning 40. No smart team will bet on him turning it around in 2024 at age 40.
Does he want to go to the minors, show that he has something significant left, and earn a promotion? That’s how it’s done, and how it should be done. We can say he ‘deserves’ better, but what team should forfeit some % of their shot at the postseason, however trivial that forfeited % may be, by giving Votto what he ‘deserves’ by giving him a spot on the 26-man roster just because he’ll eventually be elected to the HOF?
—It’s not because he’s old, per se, it’s because he’s old *and bad.* It’s because old players with his track record over the last 5 years almost universally only get worse. He’s a bad bet for 2024 simply and solely on the merits.
Bloom
Very refreshing also would be nice to see hitters “take what the pitchers give” go the other way with a pitch…. Get away from launch angle and less strikeouts. More contact hitters the better. Home runs will come just concentrate on good contact … But that’s just my opinion… Thank God it’s Friday and baseball is back!
By age I also mean age plus recent performance. If recent years had been above average year of course he would have more suitors but if he was 35 with his recent history my guess is he’d be getting more interest although looking at his last few years I doubt it would still be much. I agree with what you wrote.
@bloom — Walks being down is all the more reason to emphasize OBP, especially when SBs have never been more attainable. For ex, Rickey Henderson, for all his speed/power, had a higher career walk-rate higher than Votto, at 16.4% (K-rate only 12.7%). Imagine in today’s game if you have elite speed and elite plate discipline.
He’ll (Votto) probably have to wait until Belt and Solano sign. Cron just signed with Boston. So there’s one less in front of him.
I just can’t wait until the Boras 3 and Martizez finally sign so we can move on. Will be interesting to see where they all go as the market is much smaller than it usually would be. My guess is 1-3 year deal w opt outs, just like Bellinger so they can again test free agency next year.
I’m taking the opposite viewpoint on this. I’m so over it, I don’t care if they ever sign. I’m looking forward to the season to starting.
It’s gonna take having most of who’s left going unsigned deep into the season to finally change the overpay for too many years cycle. If this is the year, so be it.
This happens from time to time, regardless of what’s happened in previous years.
If this motivates a few players who would have held out in 2025, 2026, 2027… to sign faster, all this will be forgotten in 2028, 2029, 2030 and we’ll be back to the waiting game.
It barely affects the game, in any case. How much less interested in baseball will we be even if Snell, Montgomery, and Martinez don’t play a game in 2024?
@Joe, I agree, the Boring Four
I wouldn’t be certain that they’ll want to go through this standoff again next year..especially, if these FA’s play crappy this season (if they sign)..
@dubtastic The players in general will only care about the contracts. It’s the teams that will pay attention to performance.
You can bet teams have noticed that pitchers who miss ST take a performance hit, on average. It’ll be interesting if Snell and Montgomery go unsigned into April, something that’s all the more likely if they’re not lowering their demands while teams calculate their value only to be on a continuous slope of decline with every day especially pitchers sit out.
Pitchers in their 30s generally would rather not “bet on themselves” since career can be shot quick.
Even in this late stage, would think 5/125 on table for Montgomery 31-35yo seasons since he is steady. Maybe throw in an opt out after 2nd year.
Still a big guarantee and another shot at FA if still good.
A lot of teams would be happy to snap up Monty at 5/125, even at this late date.
The opt-out’s a problem for the team, though, with an older pitcher.
Still, 5/125m…. If Senga hadn’t gotten hurt even the Mets might add him for that.
It’s fascinating to me. You have an agency that completely misread the industry and the impact of RSN bankruptcies and market movement.
You also have predictive data models that even 5 years ago we didn’t have. For example, sure Snell would look good in a Halo uniform, but the season model may show the Angels 79-83 with him and 77-85 without him. Why would the Angels sign that contract? Does Snell get them into the playoffs?
The data doesn’t lie and every year these stall tactics to artificially get the highest contract is proving to add zero value for the teams that get suckered into them.
You’re right on target with that assessment. One of the many problems for Boras this winter is that there are too many owners in play who have been burned by albatross contracts with Boras clients. They’ll only overpay for too many years in only the cases of the most elite talent. Chapman has arguably had two pedestrian to subpar years in a row. There’s no kinda spin that’s gonna make any team overpay him.
@nukeg “You also have predictive data models that even 5 years ago we didn’t have.”
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It’s not clear what you mean, since teams have had such predictive models for many decades.
The Angels may still not have it. Sadly.
I won’t geek out but enhanced artificial intelligence capabilities have brought predictive analytics into a whole new level. I manage AI robotics and resultant data for another industry, but I can’t only imagine what MLB has to offer. Now whether the teams are properly using this data, that’s another story.
Montgomery will add 10-12 wins to the Angels and some staying healthy will add 10 more. If so, they have a shot at the postseason.
If he could add 10-12 wins, he’d be getting upwards of $40 million per year.
Angels 5th starter will probably win 5-6 games at best. I would think Monty can win 15-17 games.
Those projections are always conservative though. I wonder what Texas and especially Arizona, Baltimore and Miami were projected, record wise, this time a year ago. The Angels should tear it down and rebuild. Their direction is confusing to me. It’s like they just want a guy or two to draw fans, but you need a lot more than that to be a playoff team.
The Sox don’t in my view need a back up infielder. It won’t happen but they need Chapman for third so Devers can be moved to DH. His glove is far worse than Yoshida’s. Deal him if you can, and resign Duvall.
They have surplus outfielders to fill the DH slot. You don’t wanna be paying Devers that much just to DH.
In this era of ridiculously short benches, pure DH types with little to no value on the field are a luxury most teams can’t afford. Why spend millions on a guy like Belt when most teams probably have a utility type who can play 3-4 positions and put up respectable numbers for the league minimum?
Term and AAV are clearly holding up Martinez, whose bat would upgrade almost any lineup, because it’s been quite some time since he’s even been passable as a fielder. If he’d accept a deal for say, $13 million with an opt-out, he’d probably be signed tomorrow. Clearly he’s looking for more than that.
The only way that a pure DH really makes sense in this era is if they have an exceptional bat. I don’t think anyone minds a one dimensional hitter if they hit the living crap out of the ball.
Rowdy might have a nice bounce back year but I’d rather have Brandon Belt. 3 mil for Belt is twice what Rowdy got but they’re two different players. Belt will hit for a higher average, won two WS rings and brings actual veteran leadership! Neither one can play first which is a big problem but Connor Joe is a very good platoon partner. For an extra maybe 2 mil Brandon Belt is the much better option. The buccos love dumpster diving—let’s hope it works out with Rowdy.
In the era the 26-man roster, every team can afford to set aside one spot for a dedicated DH.
The point would be yours if we were still playing 25 at a time, but with 26 AND shuttles between teams and their AAA clubs running almost continuously AND three option years, any DH who can give you even a 110 OPS+ will be an improvement worth a slot on most teams.
Point taken. That is why were seeing more 110 wrc+ DHs, however those players are being treated as very expandable and that spot could make sense for other specialized roles.
I’d rather have Peraza than one of Donovan Solano, Elvis Andrus, or Jean Segura, unless they are really cheap. These three are mid thirties…and any serious money spent on them could just end up on the underperformance or IL. Maybe you get lucky, but is this really going to help?
plus youd burn that final option year, meaning peraza would have to sink or swim. if he can just hold down a roster spot this year, it would protect against a sophomore slump or otherwise down season, or perhaps a bigger addition next year
My concerns with the Mariners goes beyond Brash. The Mariners are so top heavy and have so few MLB caliber depth options, it wouldn’t take very much to go from a decent to average or worse. They feel like one of the more variable teams projection-wise. I could see them lucking it a 93 win season, but could just as easily see 75 wins. That variability is true of many/most teams but in their case there’s a lot more downside than upside on the roster.
Agree completely. Add to that what the beat writers have pointed out, that the Mariners have been blessed with ridiculous hot streaks and good health with their pitchers for years now.. It sure seems like their luck has to reverse at some point. The big catch is when.
blogs.fangraphs.com/a-new-way-of-looking-at-depth/
The numbers bear this out too. Mariners projected winning percentage (currently 0.528 per FG), against average competition, drops significantly when removing any number of their top players. (I.e. losing top 3 players drops them to 0.477).
Meanwhile, Reds start at 0.488 but project to maintain a 0.471 even with losing their top 6 players. Talk about two teams that are built very, very differently
Thanks for sharing. I always felt like there was something wrong with the way FG does team projections. The allocate way too much playing time to the opening day roster. Its nice to see they are trying to address that.
GREG Speier? Who’s that guy?
The new market inefficiency, fusions ala Dragonball.
Alright, I am very confident this is real (unfortunatley), but apparently, a certian former Pirates left-handed closer from 2016-2019 who went to prison for some very henious actions is now apparently out of prison and was recently signed by a Venezuelan team. I just wanted to bring this to attention because it’s absolutley wild.
Very wild indeed. I suspect he *ahem* “bought” his way out of that scandalous nation’s penal colony. Will make for an interesting story… if we knew half the real facts. He isn’t coming back to MLB, perhaps that’s the only good news I see here.
With American’s struggling in the economy, I doubt there is many worrying who’s unsigned in the Soras agency. For a Detroit fan who’s stuck with watching Baez for years to come or the left side of Baez, Urshela, and Canha this year it’s meaningless. At least the last two are short term, but boy you make a mistake on a long term deal the wind comes out of the fans sails fast.
Detroit’s got a couple of pitchers who has him as a agent, but they’ve yet to be healthy enough to worry about now. As with everyone of his clients they’ll get paid by someone. At least in Detroit there is hope the rebuild is finally arrived.
What’s wrong with Canha? 2+ WAR LFer, high OBP, great makeup, smart player, on a 1/$11.5m deal.
Baez I’ll grant you. Whomever thought he was worth 6 years should be fired. Into a trunk.
Aren’t these late signings going to make for a late progression for the season?
Gabe Speier, babe.
This has nothing to do with the article, but it has come to my attention that the Yankees have in camp a pitcher named Clayton Beeter. He may make the team out of camp. Knowing this site and we who populate it, it’s going to be fun! Clayton “Wife” Beeter…Clayton “Meat” Beeter….ETC ETC. Gotta love baseball.
Some of us are less crude. “Egg”
Michael A Taylor to the Pirates or Padres would be a no-brainer if either had a pot to piss in.
“Meanwhile” has to start the sentence, Mr. Deeds. It can’t come in the middle, separated by commas.