The Cubs have expressed interest in Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. It’s unclear how serious discussions between the sides have become at this point.
It would hardly be a surprise to see Toronto part ways with Jansen prior to the deadline on July 30. The club has experienced a freefall in the standings that has seen the club drop to just 43-52, 14 games out of the AL East and 9.5 games out of a playoff spot. That massive deficit in the standings has left the club’s playoff odds (according to Fangraphs) at just 1.6%. Given those dismal odds, it’s only natural that the club is reportedly “expressing openness” to moving on from rental players this summer.
Jansen, 29, is one of the club’s more intriguing rental players. Initially drafted in the 16th round back in 2013 by the Blue Jays, the Wisconsin native made his big league debut with Toronto back in 2018 and generally struggled at the plate early in his career. He carried a lackluster .208/.297/.370 slash line (79 wRC+) into the 2021 season. Fortunately, in 2021 Toronto began to lean less heavily on Jansen behind the plate due to the arrival of youngster Alejandro Kirk. From 2021-23, Jansen enjoyed a resurgence on offense while being counted on for an average of just 76 games a year. In 754 trips to the plate across those three seasons, he saw his wRC+ jump to 121 as he slashed a solid .237/.317/.487 while clubbing 43 home runs.
Early in the 2024 campaign, Jansen appeared to be on track for the best season of his career as he was slashing an incredible .287/.371/.535 through the end of May. He struck out just 15.5% of the time in those 116 trips to the plate while walking at a 12.1% clip and crushing five homers. Paired with generally strong defensive grades behind the plate throughout his career, that figured to make him an extremely attractive free agent this winter, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored for Front Office subscribers at the time.
Things have come off the rails a bit for Jansen since then, however. In 91 trips to the plate since the start of June, Jansen has posted a lackluster .141/.253/.218 across 26 games. An eye-popping .164 BABIP that’s all but certain to enjoy some positive regression indicates that there’s some reason for optimism when looking at Jansen’s numbers during this recent slump, as does the fact that Jansen’s plate discipline numbers (18.9% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate) remain impressive. Even so, it’s hard to imagine the Jays getting anywhere close to the trade return they might have had Jansen maintained his early season production now that he’s hitting a roughly league average .223/.319/.397 (103 wRC+) for the season.
Even so, it’s not hard to see why the Cubs would be interested in Jansen’s services. The club has struggled somewhat on offense this year with a collective wRC+ of 102 that ranks 16th in the majors this year, even in spite of excellent seasons from corner bats Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, and Michael Busch. The most obvious culprit for those struggles at the dish in Chicago is the players they’re using behind it, as Cubs catchers have slashed a pathetic .180/.227/.264 this year. That translates to a wRC+ of 39 that ranks 29th in the majors ahead of only the lowly Marlins.
It’s possible the Cubs would be willing to stomach that brutal offense production if they were getting elite defense behind the plate, but youngster Miguel Amaya has been worth -2 runs according to Statcast’s Fielding Run Value, and veteran Yan Gomes was performing even worse before being replaced by Tomas Nido after he was released by the Mets last month. Nido has looked good behind the plate but has hit a ghastly .135/.154/.189 in 13 games with the Cubs. He doesn’t have much of a track record to lean on, either, as a seven-game stint in 2020 is the only time in his career he’s posted a wRC+ higher than 86.
Those woes behind the plate make the Cubs an obvious fit for Jansen’s services, although it’s fair to wonder if Chicago will be in position to buy by the time the deadline rolls around. After all, the team is currently five games below .500 (46-51) and in dead last in the NL Central. They’re only 4.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, but Fangraphs gives them playoff odds of just 8.7%. While that’s substantially higher than the aforementioned odds Toronto has, it still suggests a postseason berth is a remote possibility for Chicago, and it would hardly be a surprise to see them pivot towards selling if they struggle coming out of the All Star break.
Should the Cubs wind up buying, Jansen isn’t the only Blue Jays hitter the club has reported interest in. Last month, it was reported that Chicago was having internal discussions about the possibility of pursuing star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. if the Blue Jays decided to sell. Of course, that reporting came on the heels of GM Ross Atkins very plainly saying that dealing Guerrero, who is controllable through the end of the 2025 campaign, “doesn’t make any sense” for the team to do. While it’s at least theoretically possible the club’s front office changes its stance before the deadline, that possibility seems remote at best as things stand.
Would be a good move for them.
Why? They are out of it
wvsteve, They’re 4.5 out of the wild card… In July… Not quite sure how they’re “out of it”. Care to elaborate?
Not quite sure how they’re “out of it”. Care to elaborate?
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Theoretically, no one is out of it. But if the Mets continue to play .521, then the Cubs need to play .591 the rest of the way to catch them. Add that to the fact that there are 5 teams in front of them, in addition to the three WCs that could also out-play them.
Why do they have to catch the Mets? Why not the Cardinals or Braves?
JoeBrady, you really think the Mets are going to play .591 the rest of the year?
4.5 gb in July isn’t that much… A few moves can make all the difference.
I’m not a Cubs fan… I hope they don’t make the playoffs, but I’m also not counting them out
Cubs aren’t playing well enough to even contemplate getting a rental. A Jansen type move is for a real contender that has a glaring hole at Catcher. Cubs need to focus on 2025 and stop pretending. Technically not out of it but technically not really “in it” either.
If he signs an extension with them then it makes sense
If….
Exactly. The Cubs would undoubtedly get the framework for a new contract hashed out before parting with trade capital. He looks to be well worth an investment.
Even if the Cubs aren’t technically “out of it,” they also shouldn’t try to pretend that this could somehow be “their year” to have any real success in the playoffs. There are still significant problems with the team, and without a lot of time to correct them. There are also too many teams ahead of them in the Wild Card race that are just simply more talented than the Cubs are.
In addition, Craig Counsell hasn’t had much success in the playoffs in all of his years as a MLB manager. His postseason record, combined with the state of this year’s Cubs team, very likely won’t cut it in 2024.
No!
This is not the Cubs year. Set things up for 2025.
Agree but it doesn’t hurt to explore Jansen with an eye toward 2025. Cubs need to do something at catcher. Yes, he is a free agent but if you are able to make a reasonable trade for him, give it a shot, see if he likes the city/club and maybe that gives the Cubs the upper hand at resigning him in FA or extending him rather than waiting for free agency and having as good of a chance as any other team to sign him. Looking toward 2025, how many catchers are going to be available this winter via trade or FA that would be better than Jansen? Probably not many.
If you’re looking to 2025 you should be talking to the Dodgers. They already have Will Smith who is one of the best C’s in Baseball. They have 5 C’s in their top 30 list and they’re all at AA or higher. Now if you want to trade a Wesneski or anybody except Steele, Tallion, or Imanaga I can get behind that. Not only are Imanaga, Steele and Tallion 3 Starters you can take into the Playoffs they are all reasonably signed for at least the next 2 years. Trading for retreads? I’d much rather look ahead than behind.
Uncle Mike you have finally figured it out. A rental from a position of weakness does nothing for the Cubs. A future catcher that can put you in a position of strength? That’s more like it. Well done.
The only problem is the Dodgers will probably want some MLB ready pitching. The only 2 guys that pop into mind are Leiter Jr. and Neris. The money wouldn’t bother them for Neris and the Cubs might have to include something else. Or a straight prospect swap where the Dodgers off load some depth at one position for another. Probably have a better shot at pulling it off in the off season as prospects for prospects is more likely as with the Busch deal. I don’t think Leiter and or Neris helps them immensely right now. But hey let’s see what we get tonight and tomorrow at the draft and we’ll see. Yesevage is my hope.
They’re done. Don’t have the starting pitching. Buccos all the way
Agree they are out of it. Giving up anything of value from the minor league system, would be a fool’s errand.
That said, Jansen would be an improvement if they were sure they could sign him , say to a 2 or 3 year contract. However, I wouldn’t offer much more than a Hayden Wesneski along with maybe a Strumpf or Mervis type, offer.
Cubs are not “out of it” but losing both games in the double header greatly reduces their odds.
From the Cubs perspective, they are getting two high leverage relievers (Alzolay and Merryweather) and a solid middle of the rotation starter (Brown) and should be able to push Wesneski back into the bullpen soon where he belongs. They need improved play behind the plate, Jensen would be a minimal risk trade, and they need either a 3rd baseman or DH, preferably one with several years of control left if it’s a third baseman.
It’s so easy to ‘say’ Jansen would be a minimal risk trade – until you have to actually exchange names. In other words, ambiguous.
And as much as I’d like to say the Cubs still have a chance to get to the playoffs, watching them isn’t easy. Their chances went down yesterday.
The one thing I’d agree with your earlier observations – is that the bullpen will be in good shape when Merryweather, Alzolay and the law firm of Bigge, Little and Hodge – along with Leiter are all back. However, that might not be this season, or soon enough to save them. Wesneski should be trade bait, or sent to Iowa.
IMO they still need to clear a corner OF position for the eventual Caissie, Shaw or Triantos arrival. It would be a great thing if one of their corner OFers and/or Morel could bring a multiple year solution to their catching issues.
I disagree on Wesneski, IMO he can be a dominate reliever but he isn’t a starter. Spot starter, sure, Cubs could do worse but he’s more of a Travis Wood type with better “stuff”.
Wesneski is nasty, there is little doubt about that but his control is poor and he regularly misses up and in the zone with his slider. As a reliever, you can get by with occasionally hanging a slider up with as much movement as Wesneski has, as a starter however the margin for error is significantly smaller because guys have game planned against you and are going to see your pitches more than one time through the order.
I also disagree with corner outfield, will a guy need to moved eventually? Most likely but Cassie, as an example, can come up and push Suzuki to DH and/or rotate through corner outfield positions and DH. PCA right now hasn’t done enough for me to say “you are my center fielder and Bellinger is dh/rf/1st.
I also think it’s reasonable to suggest Jansen would be a minimal return via trade. Jansen isn’t going to get a top 100 guy, more of an intriguing lottery ticket. Maybe a Mervis type with the ceiling being a guy like Canario which would probably be too much.
I would agree except they’d be trading low on Wesneski and/or Morel… Morel’s hot/cold thing is driving me nuts..
Canario is too much for Jansen but I doubt TOR bites on Mervis for Jansen. Maybe Jansen for Mervis + Strumpf which would be reasonable. Both guys are blocked by major leaguers and/or better prospects. Wesneski is still young. He can work on command and can improve. Cubs should hang on for another year and let him compete for a fifth starter spot next spring. He’ll be 27 this December. Most guys don’t have it figured out this young. I would not sell him unless it was for a massive upgrade to the roster with multiple years of control.
If I was going to chase a C it would be Diaz. Right now Jansen is just another name in mediocrity. If you’re going to “Give” Something you should actually ” Get” Something back. Why trade sideways? Why not try trading UP for a change.
Jansen won’t be 30 until April. Diaz will be 34 in November. Jansen has a slightly better historical track record than Diaz. Jansen has been about league average defensively per defensive runs saved. Other than this year, Diaz has been nowhere near league average per that metric. In trading for Diaz you are hoping the bat stays hot long term otherwise you might as well keep Nido and Amaya as the tandem next year. Hard to believe that bat will stay hot next year as he gets older.
So you’re saying a younger guy who is bad is better than an older guy who is better? Good to know.
Jansen is more of a B/U C to me. The Cubs surely aren’t trading a starter for him. I don’t agree that Wesneski would be a better reliever than starter. I’ll give you he might be a better Long man/spot starter than starter. The first thing he needs to do is stop throwing the ” Marmol” Slider and tone it down to a cutter. Once in a while, Fine. 0-2, Hey give it a go. But most people see it early and just let it go by and he throws too many pitches. Jansen only makes sense if they’ve given up on Amaya. What’s with Amaya? Is it just a bad year? Is he really bad? Does he have a hole in his swing they can fix? It’s not just his bat, His defense has taken a step back also. Although I’ll toss throwing out runners back to the pitchers, Pitch clock and rules change also. Look if they can get Jansen he’s a Major League C. Not the best, Not the worst. But giving up anything more than a low level prospect for him, Just walk away. This season probably isn’t going to end well anyway. So far it’s a Carbon Copy of last year and should
Be treated accordingly. Sell a little and keep playing Wild Card shuffle, Hope everyone gets healthy. That’s what I’d do.
As a Jays fan I’d take your offer of Wesnevski and Mervis
I bet you would. But the Cubs aren’t trading a starting P for a C. That would be ridiculous alone. Much less adding in Mervis. I suggest you go back to your drawing board and actually put some thought into it.
It’s just responding to one of your fellow Cubs fans post…If the cubs stupid enough to offer that the Jays should jump at it…It wasn’t my idea
Uncle Mike remember to read before your type. It has gotten you into trouble in the past. Kmac is correct and citing some other Cub fan who thinks they know a lot and doesn’t.
itshappening- It’s really one of the major problems I have with this site. It’s not a major beef, just aggravating. It’s that when you reply to someone it should put the post WHERE you put it, But it drops it to the end of the thread. So if it had put it where I’m sure he put it it would be fine. Why I usually put the person I’m replying in my reply, But I get lazy like everyone else sometimes. Whoever said it, It’s not gonna happen anyway. I didn’t really mean it the way it sounded I guess I worded it as a diss. I just meant yeah I bet you would because it was bad overpay. I like K Mac
All good.
It’s happ- In person I have a very dry sense of humor. It doesn’t translate into print sometimes.
If you have to ask that question, you don’t need to be following baseball in July. Just do something else until the playoffs start.
Ross Atkins … saying that dealing Guerrero … “doesn’t make any sense”
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I’d have liked him to elaborate.
1-Except for 2021, when he played a lot of games in small parks, his OPS has never exceeded .818. For a 1B with questionable fielding, that’s only ‘okay’.
2-They only have him for one more year, with a likelihood they won’t make the playoffs. If they trade him to a contender, that team will value him him as a 2-year player.
3-His salary might be $25M next year. That can buy a decent amount of talent.
Seems like a trying to sell tickets decision for a non-competitive club instead of what’s in best big picture interest. Don’t trade Vlad Jr for sake of, but they should capitalize if someone is bit desperate to add a bat.
Vlad jr trade makes perfect sense unless the Jays plan on overpaying him the next 10 years with an extension. This is looking like a disaster for Toronto once again.
Do you trust Atkins trading him though? Save it for the new GM. Atkins is KO after this year, of not after the deadline.
Do I trust the front office to do the right thing? No. Jays have an ownership problem, and Rogers will not allow the wrong people they hired to attempt to do the right thing.
I’ve often wondered if some GMs personally profit from lob sided trades… despite policies; it happens in regular business where there’s something a little extra delivered to the home, or someone’s kid gets tuition paid for….
Collusion? Hmm. Reasonable assumption.
Try for Stallings in Colorado instead of Jansen.
Or Diaz.
If anything, Hoyer will reach for the low bar.
Twins should try to trade Jansen for Vasquez. We’ll throw in a prospect too. Anything to get out of the 10 million we’ll owe Vasquez next year if we can’t dump him and his .185 AVG on someone else lol
Jays are likely looking to drop payroll below the tax threshold. They won’t be taking money back.
Vasquez is all yours.
“Paired with generally strong defensive grades behind the plate throughout his career”
When? Outside of blocking he has posted negative numbers in defensive metrics including everybody’s favorite DRS and low numbers in DRP. So when did he post favorable defensive grades?
It doesn’t matter what shapiro and his useless carryon baggage atkins do. They’ll screw it up royally anyway….What a shame they are still in T.O. ….
Mystery how a top level payroll team can fail to perform, yet the front office flashes the Teflon and gets paid another year. Hopefully the television ratings go way down, and sponsors like Mary Browns find someone else to flog their chicken…
The Cubs need to start winning games for this to make sense. But if the Cubs don’t trade for a catcher who will? I think they can get him for a good price.
These articles would be shorter and more to the point without the fancy “slashing” numbers that just point out the player is not very good and is being pursued by a very poorly constructed big market team that has been a monumental failure.
Hey Chicago what do you say?
Worst off season signing goes to the Cubs Craig Counsell..Milwaukee got better and the Cubs got worse.
The future Yankees catcher.
Either by trade at the deadline or they sign him as a FA after the season.
Maybe the Blue Jays should be interested in Danny Jansen…..wasn’t that long ago they kept him and Kirk over Moreno….
Imagine Kirk is our everyday catcher next year
Whatever the wrongest possible move to make is: The Blue Jays ABSOLUTELY *WILL* make it.
There shouldn’t be a comma before “either,” Deeds. There’s zero reason to do this.
Regarding paragraph #5…
That’s just what happens to most hitters, the more time they seem to spend with this coaching staff in their ear.