Dylan Carlson is on his way to the Rays, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (X links) report that Tampa has acquired the former Cardinals top prospect for right-hander Shawn Armstrong. The Angels, Guardians, and Nationals were all linked to Carlson’s market leading up to the deadline, but it was Tampa who sealed the deal for the 25-year-old outfielder. Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that St. Louis included around $98K in the deal.
Trade speculation has swirled around Carlson for years, even when he was on the way up the ladder as one of the top minor leaguers in the St. Louis farm system. Both before and after Carlson made his MLB debut in 2020, there were whispers that the crowded nature of the Cards’ outfield picture might inspire the team to move Carlson to address another need, and it is perhaps now easy to second-guess the Cardinals’ decision to retain a player they once saw as a building block.
Carlson seemingly lived up to that early hype with a third-place finish in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2021, but injuries curtailed both his production and his playing time in 2022-23. A left hamstring strain and a thumb sprain hampered him in 2022, and ankle problems (and an eventual ankle surgery) limited Carlson to 76 games in 2023. Playing in 204 of 324 games over the 2022-23 seasons, Carlson hit .230/316/.364 over 743 plate appearances.
The struggles continued into this year, as Carlson has a .198/.275/.240 slash line in 138 PA while in a clear part-time capacity. Still just 25 years old, Carlson will now get a change of scenery with this trade to the Rays and a chance at a fresh start to his Major League career.
The Rays’ flurry of deadline moves has left plenty of opening around the roster, including the left field spot recently occupied by Randy Arozarena. Carlson’s center field defense has been declining along with his offense, but the metrics indicate that he is an average to solid defender in the corner outfield spots. Between that outfield versatility and his switch-hitting, Carlson somewhat fits the Rays’ preferred model of players who can shuffled around to different places on the diamond, though he’ll naturally need to show more at the plate in order to win regular playing time. Carlson is still under arbitration control through the 2026 season, so Tampa Bay has time to evaluate Carlson and decide whether or not he has something to offer as a big leaguer.
Armstrong has a 4.18 ERA over 327 1/3 career innings with Cleveland, Miami, Seattle, Baltimore, and two separate stints with Tampa Bay during his 10 Major League seasons. The righty is a free agent after the season and is therefore a rental pickup for the Cardinals, who will use Armstrong as some extra depth in their bullpen.
A big .370 BABIP has impacted Armstrong’s performance in 2024, as his 5.40 ERA is considerably higher than his 3.86 SIERA. It hasn’t all been plain bad luck, however, as Armstrong’s walk and hard-contact rates are all below average, and his 23.4% strikeout rate is decent but inspiring. Left-handed batters have a .982 OPS against Armstrong this season, while he has continued to pitch well against same-sided hitters, limiting righty-swingers to a .690 OPS.
Hope they do their magic with Dylan
The rays are gonna be stacked for 2026
Does it matter? All they do is shift players
He’s going to be an all-star soon.
Rays get their Arozorena replacement. I expect Carlson to get MVP votes next year.
lol
It’s going to take some work because he’s been awful this season…especially lately.
Not my first choice for a return but whatever I am done with Carlson. This is different from the ONeill situation Carlson is barely decent even if he’s healthy. He’s a similar player to Benintendi or Haniger or Dahl that good at everything not great at anything type. Good luck Rays if he performs at all it was a good trade for them but I am happy he’s gone.
Cards are idiotic talking down the value of their players, so they get nothing in return. TON was stupid. This is pathetic.
Better to option him and trade in the offseason for prospects. Armstrong doesn’t move the needle at all.
I think Dylan Carlson talked down his own value with his play on the field. This isn’t great, but you get what you can and move on.
ONeill had injury issues and the manager called him out which was dumb. Carlson is supposedly healthy and he’s been awful all year. Obviously we are selling low on Carlson but I am not sure he’s ever going to bounce back.
And if he does, good for him. The Rays have a way of turning guys around.
Yeah if Carlson does turn it around good for them and him. When ONeill was traded I was upset. Carlson I just don’t care he’s had plenty of chances even on his best day he’s not that good.
Carlson needed to play. But, the org fell in love with Siani, when they needed offense. Makes no sense. Cards need a front office cleaning or new ownership. Too many good players fail in their system,
O’Neil had proven that he had All-Star upside but I was pretty tired of the O’Neil show. Same with Flaherty, tbh.
Siani is second in all of baseball in outs above average for outfielders with 14 (per Statcast). Carlson is -3 for his CAREER. I think you are drastically undervaluing Siani’s defense, particularly since Carlson has never hit for s**t.
If Carlson could hit he would have taken over for Siani. But Siani played great defense from the start and has improved as a hitter. I still see center as a weak point but I won’t miss Carlson.
Carlson has had opportunities to play, but he hasn’t hit RHP since his rookie year, and he’s not even hitting lefties that well anymore.
Siani can’t hit either and rightly belongs on the bench, but at least he plays Gold Glove caliber defense. Carlson is also pretty good defensively but not as good as Siani.
Never? He was 3rd for rookie of the year and then the MLB Cards worked their magic to destroy his confidence along with a bunch of injuries (most of which he tried to play through.) A lot of crybaby Cardinal fans. These are people and such a negative fan base these days because of social media and the Dewitt’s unwillingness to spend money on payroll combined with MO’s inability to be willing to trade prospects. IMO
But that is what they do. Mo is always too afraid to trade a top prospect for a star. Most prospects don’t work out.
I was REALLY hoping for Luis Garcia, but oh well.
Good luck Dylan Carlson. You’re in a better place now. I hope you get it figured out. If you break out next year, it just gives me more gas to pour on Mo.
Yeah Garcia or Floro I would have preferred but oh well. I think the Fedde trade was one of the best moves made so really happy about that. Gotta start playing better now.
Garcia apparently landed 4 minor leaguers so this is better, IMO.
We could have added some Luken Baker/Moises Gomez types for filler. Oh well, I just came to really appreciate Garcia when we had him in ’21.
I’m with you on Garcia. I just don’t think this team is good enough to warrant trading any prospects for.
Honestly I’m pretty impressed with what Mo was able to do with just Edman and Carlson.
Watch the Rays still make the playoffs.
Surely the Cardinals need more bullpen help than this.
FIP is a better stat than ERA. He’s decent not exciting but Carlson isn’t any good so oh well.
Don’t call Mozeliak “Surely”.
@lesterdnightfly
I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue
Wonder what the hold up was with the nats for floro
Yeah Floro was sounding good. This less good but still he should help.
Help, how? Armstrong sucks this year. The Rays should’ve just DFAed him by now.
FIP is a better stat than ERA.
Only when predicting future performance. (ERA is better for analyzing past performance.) While that is what we want to do here, his FIP still isn’t good for a reliever. Overall, his stats suck.
His FIP is decent it’s not great but it’s not bad.
It’s not decent for a reliever, either. You want those rates stats at least under 3.50 for relievers to be considered decent. Plus, his WHIP is also terrible.
Diaz and Fairbanks still with the team
Armstrong’s ERA sucks but his FIP is almost two runs better, so maybe he’ll get better results in St. Louis.
I don’t know if any of their moves will change the outlook for this year but the team is better on paper than it was two days ago, and they have Fedde under contract for next year, and all STL did was move a couple spare parts.
Even his FIP isn’t that good for a reliever. Looking at it in combination with his ERA and other stats like WHIP, Armstrong still sucks.
Apparently he started 7 games but I don’t know if those were just 1 inning opener appearances or what.
Opener
% disappointed with this trade! If the Cardinals wasn’t getting any better offers than Armstrong then throw in more for a better reliever!
Carlson just could never put it all together. Plenty of chances, maybe the Rays can get some production. Not thrilled with Armstrong, but it was time for change.
Why would the Cardinals want a lousy rental reliever who has too much service time to even option to AAA?! They’d be better off continuing to make use of youngsters like Roycroft and Leahy.
At least Carlson had value starting in place of Siani in CF vs. LHP.
Carlson is switch hitter that can’t hit right handed pitching from the left side. He actually hits right handed pitching better from the right side but he refuses to give up hitting from the left side.
His split tell it all. You can’t be an everyday player and not hit RHP.
I agree, but like I said, he still has value as a platoon player hitting against LHP, as least better than Siani does against them.
Is Nootbaar going to play CF against lefties now?
If they were going to dump Carlson, they should’ve gotten a useful reliever for him.
If Carlson was able to hit lefties this year he would still be around. He wasn’t doing squat against lefties or righties.
I actually was hoping they got Verdugo from NYY so they could have an outfielder to take Donovan out of left field and return him to being a super utility player again.
With Pham, Nootbaar, Siani, Verdugo, and Donovan occasionally serving as 5th outfielder, it would work. Also, Donovan is in need to spell Gorman when he goes in these slumps.
That would require getting rid of Carpenter. And good gosh we wouldn’t want to do that……
Still better than Siani does against lefties.
59 OPS points. Sianis defense makes up for that easy. And Pham hits lefties great. Not gonna miss Carlson.
No, it would just mean DFAing Crawford instead, especially since a super-utility Donovan could just backup SS instead. I have no idea why Crawford is still on the team.
Carpenter, on the other hand, has actually been a decent bench bat this year.
Anyway, would Verdugo be platooning with Pham? That still leaves Siani and his lead bat in CF most of the time, as neither Nootbaar nor Verdugo is a true CFer.
That’s a small sample size, and Carlson is also good defensively.
Siani is a stud defensively. Carlson is ok in center nothing special. I agree we need center field help but Carlson wasn’t cutting it.
I went back to look at Nootbaar and his time in CF and what I found was a very capable guy to man the position.
He has a positive dWAR for his career, his range factor per 9 innings is higher than league average, and he’s only committed 1 error in 93 games playing CF (.995 field percentage)
Of course the question with Nootbaar is his fragility. He’s never made it passed 120 games and that won’t happen this year either.
I agree Nootbaar can play center. But just like ONeill if the guy can’t stay healthy you don’t go putting him in center and moving him up the defensive spectrum. Plus in a perfect world we would have a righty hitter. Edman would have filled that role for sure but Fedde was a good get so no complaints.
The addition of Armstrong is better than retaining Roycroft on the roster.
Wrong! Roycroft isn’t that good but still better than Armstrong, and at least he can still be optioned back and forth.
The Cardinals have basically wasted a bullpen spot with this move.
This is another horrific Mo deal.. The Cardinals have no idea what to do with young OF talent. Carlson’s coming off a couple significant injuries and is only 25. Armstrong’s no better than our internal options. Speaking of options they could have just sent Dylan down to get himself right. Terrible deal..
Look man, coaches have tried to convince Dylan to give up switch hitting because he actually hits right handed pitching better from the right side but he refuses to give up hitting from the left side.
That’s Carlson’s own undoing. His splits say he’s not going to make it as an everyday player.
It’s a good thing he made one of his much more common good deals yesterday.
I think we can agree that as shrewd as a deal that brought in Fedde and Pham was, Mozeliak still should have made more moves to enhance the roster.
All the team’s ahead of St Louis in the Wild Card race all got better as well.
With what money or prospects for where a significant upgrade could actually be made? The offense and bullpen are already good enough, and there’s no way he could’ve upgraded the rotation any better than he did with what he had available.
Had the Cardinals sent Carlson to Memphis, it would have taken away at bats and playing time away from Jordan Walker, Victor Scott, and Matt Koperniak.
I couldn’t disagree more with this comment. I’m no Mozeliak fan, but Carlson has gotten a TON of chances in St. Louis and really never did much but show flashes from time to time. His defense has already gotten worse since his rookie season, plus he refuses to stop hitting left-handed, where he is horrible.
Carlson should eventually get some playing time in LF for Tampa.
Shoukd be in RF, he has a great arm
Didn’t he play mostly RF for a season or two and grade out as significantly below average by every metric?
Everyone touts Dylan Carlson to make some miraculous bounce back, however, most Cardinal fans that pay attention to details knows the truth. He’s been exposed and he’s stubborn.
He’s a switch hitter that hits .219 against right handed pitching, but hit .289 against left handed pitching. Coaches say he hits right handed pitching fine when he hits from the right side, but he refuses to give up hitting from the left side.
Good luck with that, Tampa Bay.
Then he will enjoy Durham.
For two months. Then they nontender him. In exchange for a below average reliever who was going to be a free agent in the offseason anyway. This is only an extended audition for a formerly talented player to see if he can be good enough the next couple months to be tendered for about $2.8M or so. If he can’t, the Rays release him and all it costed was about $300k in salary difference for the rest of the year.
A+ for Cards. Pen arm for free.
Tampa tbd….
That might be close to being technically true, but the Cardinals have downgraded their bullpen in the process.
They are just looking to mix things up in the back end. The 2 setup men and closer are ranked #1 in MLB.
Cardinals trade lowly outfielder to Rays for a pitcher…where have I seen this before…
I wouldn’t say either Arozarena or Palacios was “lowly” even at the time of those trades..
Still waiting for the Cardinals to upgrade the offense.
I’m convinced the Dewitt’s are trying to sell the team. This whole deadline is hot garbage, the off-season was hot garbage, it’s been 10 years of steaming hot garbage. Don’t tell me these moves will do anything except maybe…MAYBE…give us 1 wildcard game. Steaming, hot, smelly, garbage.
I will not disagree. Just make the playoffs and it will be considered an achievement and a win for the season. They made zero attempt to upgrade the offense and that’s been the weak spot of the team.
Uninspiring trade. Rays have all the upside potential here and I’m sure they’ll get it. Armstrong is meh, but relievers are weird. He might do great here, might flame out, who knows.
Really, I’m just glad Dylan has a better chance now.
The next randy arozarena!
Good luck with that. LOL
All of the people on here saying Carlson will be an All-Star soon must not watch baseball very often. The guy has ALWAYS been injury-prone. He’s shown flashes of decent offense at times in his career, but this Cardinals fan will not miss him in the least.
I understand your view, but a lot of players seem to be injury prone here. Maybe the culture isn’t as great as we have always believed.
Dylan Carlson, another of the members of the St. Louis Cardinals Speculative Outfield Club, where many are drafted and developed and play the outfield for the Redbirds — but not for very long. Where do we begin…? How about Bader, O’Neill, Thomas, Arozarena, Carlson, Yepez, Edman (part-time OF), and now hold your breath about Nootbaar, Walker, Donovan, Scott and Siani, who could be gone tomorrow. Strange how many of them seem to find homes elsewhere.