Royals Acquire Lucas Erceg

The Royals have acquired right-hander Lucas Erceg from the Athletics, per announcements from both clubs. The A’s receive right-handers Mason Barnett and Will Klein as well as outfielder Jared Dickey.

Erceg took an unusual path to being a midseason trade target. He was drafted by the Brewers as a third baseman back in 2016 but flamed out as a hitter and eventually moved to the mound. In 2021, he tossed 47 2/3 innings at the Double-A level, allowing 5.29 earned runs per nine. As you might expect for a new convert to pitching, control was an issue at first. Erceg gave out walks to 16.4% of batters faced that year but he also got strikeouts at a decent 21.1% clip and grounders at a strong 56.8% rate.

He has generally made positive progress in each season since as he has become more accustomed to his new career path. In 2022, he logged 61 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.55 ERA, a decent step forward from the prior season. His strikeout and walk rates also improved to 24.4% and 13.1%, respectively.

In 2023, he started the year back at Triple-A before he was traded from Milwaukee to Oakland in a cash deal, with the A’s adding him to their roster shortly thereafter. He tossed his first 55 major league innings last year with a 4.75 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, 14.3% walk rate and 46.1% ground ball rate. The control was still an issue but it was an encouraging debut nonetheless, especially for a guy with such a limited track record on the mound. He averaged 98 miles per hour with both his four-seam fastball and his sinker while also throwing a changeup, slider and cutter.

His second major league season has seen him continue to grow. His 26.3% strikeout rate is a slight drop from last year but he has cut his walk rate all the way down to 8.3%, with his ground ball rate also creeping up to 50.5%. That’s resulted in a 3.68 ERA in 36 2/3 innings, with Erceg racking up three saves and 12 holds on the year.

The A’s didn’t necessarily have to trade Erceg now. He came into this season with less than a year of service time, meaning he can still be retained for five seasons after the current campaign, but there are also logical reasons why they were tempted to make him available.

Due to his unusual trajectory, Erceg is now 29 years old. With the A’s deep in a rebuild, he will be in his early 30s and into his arbitration seasons by the time they are likely to be competitive again. Relievers are generally considered pretty volatile in general and that might be even more true with Erceg, who has such limited experience relative to most of his peers. Rather than hold him and take the risk that his performance takes a downturn or he suffers an injury, the A’s decided to make him available at this deadline, while the industry consensus has generally been that the acquisition costs for pitching have been quite high.

The Royals have surged back into contention after many years of struggles and have been aggressive in bolstering their roster for a playoff push. The bullpen has naturally been a target area for the club this year, as their relievers have a collective 4.30 ERA that places them 24th in the majors. Their 18.6% strikeout rate is actually second to last, ahead of only the Rockies.

They acquired Hunter Harvey from the Nationals recently and this trade for Erceg will give them a couple of fresh arms who both have big punchout potential. They also added Michael Lorenzen as a swingman to bolster the group in general, as he can help them in multiple ways.

Considering the A’s just got Erceg in a cash deal last May, they are likely quite happy to cash him in for three younger players barely over a year later. Barnett, 23, was a third-round pick of the Royals in 2022. He made 23 starts last year between High-A and Double-A with a 3.30 ERA, 28.8% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate. His ERA has jumped to 4.91 at Double-A this year but with similar peripherals. His .336 batting average on balls in play and 64.2% strand rate are probably masking those underlying metrics, as he has a 27.4% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate. Baseball America currently lists him as the #11 prospect in the Royals’ system while FanGraphs has him slightly higher at #7.

Klein, 24, is a reliever who made his major league debut this year. He has 5 2/3 innings in the show so far with a 6.35 ERA. Command appears to be the biggest issue with him. Since being selected in the fifth-round of the 2020 draft, he has tossed 216 minor league innings with a 5.17 ERA. His 30.7% strikeout rate is quite impressive but he’s also given free passes to 16.1% of batters that have come to the plate. BA and FG both put him at #16 in the system.

Dickey, 22, was just drafted in the 11th round last year. He’s slashing .269/.360/.424 in High-A this year for a wRC+ of 127 and has also stolen eight bases. Neither BA nor FG have him on their KC prospect lists.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported on X that Erceg was headed to the Royals. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the return on X.