Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto spoke to reporters (including Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times) prior to the club’s game against the Athletics today about the upcoming offseason and the club’s plans after coming up just short in the postseason race for the second season in a row. Of note is the fact that Dipoto told reporters that they club has no intention of dealing from its rotation this winter in order to upgrade other areas of the roster, with Divish quoting Dipoto as having referred to the notion as “Plan Z” for the club as they head into the offseason.
For all of Seattle’s faults this year, the rotation can’t be considered among them. Seattle starters led the league with a collective 3.39 ERA this year, ranked third with a 3.63 FIP, racked up the most strikeouts with 879, and with 931 2/3 innings of work provided more volume than any other MLB rotation this year. The team’s top quintet of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo, and Bryan Woo will finish the year having made 149 of the club’s 162 starts, with just one start made by a pitcher other than the aforementioned group and sixth starter Emerson Hancock.
It’s a remarkable level of both dominance and durability from the club’s top starters that entirely justified their decision to part ways with Marco Gonzales and Robbie Ray over the offseason, sacrificing rotation depth in order to increase flexibility to address other areas of the roster. Even so, it’s easy to understand why the club wouldn’t be interested in returning to such a strategy this winter. It would be reckless for Seattle to assume its top starters will again be able to take the mound for more than 90% of the club’s starts. If anything, the club is lacking in depth options for the rotation beside Hancock, with Jhonathan Diaz standing as the only other starter on the club’s 40-man roster.
Fortunately, it seems the club also expects less turnover on the positional side this winter, when compared to last year’s overhaul of the lineup. The 2023-24 offseason saw the Mariners part ways with Teoscar Hernandez, Eugenio Suarez, Jarred Kelenic, and Mike Ford with Ty France following them out the door during the 2024 season. After spending much of last winter looking to replace Kelenic and Hernandez’s production in the outfield, Jude relays that Dipoto believes the club’s outfield mix to be fairly set headed into 2025 with Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Victor Robles as the club’s starting options.
It’s hard to argue with that assessment. Despite a second straight season where he started off sluggishly, Rodriguez is still the club’s $200MM+ player who provides a four-win floor when healthy with his stellar center field defense and offense that ranges from solid to spectacular. Meanwhile, Arozarena was the club’s top acquisition over the summer with a 120 wRC+ since joining the Mariners. Robles being assured of a starting job with Seattle next year would’ve been a shock a few months ago, but he’s looked like a different player than the one who struggled to live up to the hype as a former top prospect with the Nationals since joining the Mariners: In 75 games with his new club, he’s slashed .327/.395/.464 with 29 stolen bases in 30 attempts as the regular leadoff hitter in Seattle.
With that being said, Dipoto did leave the door open to acquisitions in other areas of the roster. As Jude notes, Dipoto suggested that the Mariners’ strong finish to the season (they’ve gone 19-13 since firing manager Scott Servais in late August) leads him to believe the club isn’t far from returning to the postseason, but they’ll explore upgrades to their infield mix this winter nonetheless. That should be fairly doable for a club that struggled to put up even league average numbers at second base, third base, and shortstop this year while relying on a position change for Luke Raley and a deadline rental in Justin Turner to shore up first base.
Between the steady production of Cal Raleigh and the looming presence of top prospect Harry Ford at Double-A, it’s hard to imagine the club looking to upgrade behind the plate this winter. It’s also easy to imagine the club staying internal at first base with a platoon of Raley and prospect Tyler Locklear, though that would likely be a step backwards from the production Turner provided down the stretch against lefties. Dylan Moore remains a solid utility option for the club off the bench, and it would be something of a surprise to see the club move on from shortstop J.P. Crawford with two guaranteed years left on his contract.
That leaves second and third base as the easiest places for the club to upgrade, with Jorge Polanco’s $12MM club option unlikely to be picked up and Rojas fairly easy to move into a part-time role. Given the club’s general avoidance of significant contracts for position players in free agency under Dipoto, it’s hard to imagine them going big for a top infield option like Alex Bregman, or Willy Adames. Even so, there could be upgrades to be found in lower tiers of free agency or on the trade market. Brandon Lowe of the Rays and Nico Hoerner of the Cubs are among the infield options who could see their names come up in trade talks this winter, while Gleyber Torres or Ha-Seong Kim could be available to the Mariners in free agency, though they’d likely have to go outside of their typical comfort zone to land either player.
And another mid year will come because of it
“Another mid year”…I was thinking the same thing. The Mariners sometimes act as though they’re scared of attaining success.
And Jerry Dipoto has become the king of lateral trades. I’m only mad and disappointed because I’ve been watching the M’s since they came into the league.
mlb fan;
You’re a great poster, as well as a solid Mariner fan.
I don’t know what it’ll be in 2025, but when Jerry
Dipoto teams are at their best they always fall a
buck short.
A few injuries here, a few unexpected bad seasons there….always something.
A shame the Astros wound up in the AL West.
Well I think those are the only kind of trades teams will do. No one is giving up a proven ML hitter for a pitching prospect, or even 2. We have two really good ones, Morales and Evans, but I frankly doubt they get noved because there are only 7 SPs on
Perhaps Gorman might be in play. But they are dumping Goldy, so I really doubt it.
Agree
Fenway you couldn’t have said it any better
What this article basically said is that mostly everything is going to be internal and there is not going to be meaningful change
“Yeah but bro this wave of prospects is huge guys trust me bro we just gotta see what the rookies do bro and surround them with mid veterans bro because it’s all like sustainable bro” -Jerry Dipoto
Fenway – As long as Park Factor continues to be ignored by the Mariners, as it was in this article, it will be difficult to win a championship.
Home/Road ERA Splits
Gilbert
H 2.63
R 3.94
Kirby
H 3.06
R 3.89
Miller
H 1.96
R 4.07
Castillo
H 3.15
R 4.25
Woo
H 2.47
R 3.29
Remarkable level of dominance? Yeah if all their games are in T-Mobile Park.
The only one of those guys I’d even consider trading someone like Duran for would be Woo.
“Would be Woo”…Those Home/road pitching splits are very, very illuminating. Thanks for the background information.
@Fever
Can I give your comment a half like?
Park factors definitely need to be taken into account. Your method though is lacking. Most obviously in that most pitchers perform better at home
The league home ERA for starters is 3.98 and 4.25 on the road.
Seattle’s starters ranked 4th in: fWAR’ ERA-, FIP- and xFIP-
Dash – I would happily take a half like, thank you!
The league H/R numbers you provided are reasonable, of course the familiarity that comes with home field helps the defense and pitchers are typically groomed to fit their home park.
But look at the difference, only 0.27
Then look at the difference of the Seattle pitchers I provided:
Gilbert 1.31
Kirby 0.83
Miller 2.11
Castillo 1.10
Woo 0.82
Those are still sizable differences in their H/R splits.
Don’t get me wrong, they are all decent pitchers ….. but really only Woo performed at a “remarkable level of dominance” this season.
@Fever
That’s why adjusted stats are the way to go
Gilbert 86 ERA-, 82 FIP-, 76 xFIP-
Kirby 94 ERA-, 82 FIP-, 87 xFIP-
Woo 77 ERA-, 86 FIP-, 92 xFIP-
Miller 78 ERA-, 90 FIP-, 94 xFIP-
Castillo 96 ERA-,99 FIP-, 93 xFIP-
All of them were, at least technically, some were just a few points, better than average by every metric.
Gilbert, has the best claim to being “dominant” with his 82 FIP- and 76 xFIP-.
That’s largely based on his 119 K%+. Solidly above average while his rotation mates are largely averageish with K’s but great at avoiding walks.
One of interesting note: Seattle’s, starters had a below average K/9+ (98) but an above average K%+ (104)? Per nine stats “punish” better pitchers since better pitchers face fewer batters per inning. It’s easier to strike out more hitters per inning when you face 5 or 6 of them than if you only face 3 or 4.
Dash – Yes totally agree with you on K/9 vs K%, more batters means more opportunities for strikeouts. But as always, there’s flaws with every stat. For instance a IBB or Catcher’s Interference shouldn’t count against a pitcher’s K%, but it does.
@Fever
“For instance a IBB or Catcher’s Interference shouldn’t count against a pitcher’s K%, but it does.”
Sure.
It also depends on whether a stat is supposed to be descriptive or predictive.
A descriptive stat, that describes what happened, should count an IBB
A predictive stat can ignore that since it’s the manager’s call not the pitcher’s ability.
Here’s the issue with Mariners pitchers: they give up too many homers.
Gilbert: 26 HR 1.15 HR/9
Castillo 25 HR 1.29 HR/9
Kirby 22 HR 1.04 HR/9
Miller 21 HR 1.05 HR/9
Woo 14 HR 1.04 HR/9
So bringing in the fences at T-Mobile might not be the best option, yet…until they learn to stop doing that? And learn to be more like these guys:
H. Greene 12 HR .74 HR/9
L. Webb 11 HR .49 HR/9
Houck 11 HR .56 HR/9
Sale 9 HR .46 HR/9
Really it’s all they need to work on…we know Seattle pitchers have great WHIPs because they hardly walk anybody…and they’re all hearty horses and lead the universe in Quality Starts. Just that pesky gopher ball. Dammit.
It comes with the territory. They’re all a bunch of strike throwers so they get hit hard. Rarely walking anybody keeps the damage to a minimum, though.
@Ignorant
“they give up too many homers.
Gilbert: 26 HR 1.15 HR/9
Castillo 25 HR 1.29 HR/9
Kirby 22 HR 1.04 HR/9
Miller 21 HR 1.05 HR/9
Woo 14 HR 1.04 HR/9”
All except Castillo were better than average at preventing HR’s
HR/9+
Gilbert 90
Castillo 111
Kirby 97
Miller 91
Woo 90
HR/9 is, partially, a function of K rate. A K is never a HR. Seattle’s starters aren’t devastating with K’s (4% above average), the biggest part of their success is avoiding walks (40% better than average). All those extra balls in play do lead to a few more homers (they are still average at avoiding home runs – 101 HR/9+. But, their ability to keep runners off the bases keeps runs from scoring.
What’s yourvplan? Gleyber snd Bregman are both declining. I hope the Astros re-sign Bregman because in two years or less it will be another albatross contract. Adames might be ok.
Here’s my idea for a viable plan:
1, sign the Korean 2B who will be posted. Pay whatever it takes!
2, Re-sign Turner.
3, Bliss or another of our prospects takes over 3B.
Not real exciting, but might get the job done. If Bliss struggles, Young will likely be deemed ready after 3 months in AAA. Good teams fill spots with good prospects all the time, and imo the FA options suck at 3B.
They’ll deal a BP arm to the Rays for Siri and regret it immediately
I forgot they needed at least 2 BP guys. Brash won’t be back until June at the earliest. Santos still needs to prove he can get, and stay, healthy. They need a lefty and should have gotten a controllable top lefty at the deadline. Tanner Scott was who I wanted.
Shoulda Coulda Woulda
Regardless, that was a funny comment. I am in that camp as well.
I bet that if the Red Sox called and offered Jarren Duran, he’d change his tune.
“Offered Jarren Duran”…Hopefully Dipoto’s engaging in some games manship and only trying to drive up the price of his young pitchers. Only I’m not truly convinced that Jerry Dipoto is that clever.
Jarren Duran’s 2024 season is reminiscent of Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2011 season and Darin Erstad’s 2000.’
The Red Sox might be wise to trade high on Duran.
Going into Saturday’s games, Duran had posted an OPS+ of 130 in 158 games.
For the Mariners, Julio Rodriguez had posted an OPS+ of 116 in 141 games, Randy Arozarena an OPS+ of 116 in 53 games, Victor Robles an OPS+ of 154 in 75 games and Luke Raley an OPS+ of 125 in 135 games.
Seattle’s greatest needs are not in the outfield
I have heard a lot of rumors of Duran getting traded and him being sent to Seattle but I can’t see that happening
Yes, Roman Anthony is coming for an outfield spot in Boston but Duran has locked it up, it would be wilyer that loses time or gets traded if they need to
sad – I want Duran to stay for at least 4 more years, but the Sox could look at his age compared to Abreu who is 3 years younger and they could be concerned that his legs will go like they did with Crawford, Ellsbury and so many other speedsters. Also Duran’s much publicized issues are a concern, when you have severe depression and anxiety it often returns …. we saw that with Daniel Bard among others. So even though Duran is a much better player than Abreu, he’s also much riskier longterm.
Me neither, and we don’t need any more OFers.
Thankfully, I don’t think Dipoto is higher on Duran than any of his starters.
Dipoto: No plans on making the Post Season any time soon. Ahahaha!
You can’t blame them. Most teams would kill to have that group of pitchers with pitching at a premium and all the pitching injuries.
All the arms in the world don’t make any difference if you don’t get to the post season.
“Get to the postseason”..Without a consistent offense all you get is a lot of .500ish teams. The M’s are proof positive of this concept.
Yes, except they’re so deep there and teams desperate for pitching that they could address their hitting by trading one.
If we trade one of our starters it’s not like our switch pitcher is going to be called up immediately or Ryan Sloan or something, it would be either Hancock (who is a league average starter at best) or a random triple A starter
AAA starters suck in the big leagues
Agreed, the depth is great insulation for the inevitable injuries and off years.
They lacked offense out of key players for months at a time this year, and some bats just never got going. You can’t win games 0-0.
I agree, and who do you replace them with?
1, Hancock (up and down);
2, Evans (prospect);
3, Morales (prospect).
Ugh.
Plus they have that Jonathan guy stashed in AAA.
I could see them trading a pitcher for a bat and then going out and finding a different pitcher either via free agency or by trade. It’s easier for Seattle to convince pitchers to sign contracts than it is to get hitters.
Until ownership sells the team to someone else who plans to spend on offense to improve the team, it will continue to be a losing franchise. Has been for decades.
“Spend on offense”…”Spending” won’t solve the Mariners woes. I don’t really trust Dipoto to make the right choices. The last time they “spent” big, it resulted in the burdensome Robinson Cano contract that locked them into even more years of mediocrity.
Their rather obvious course of action, in my opinion, should be to leverage their biggest asset, pitching and try to turn that into at least one(preferably 2)above average everyday offensive minded players via trade.
This has been mentioned by a lot of people but under Dipoto, the Mariners appear to have little ability to evaluate Major League hitters properly. Trading a good pitcher for bad hitters seems like the most likely outcome in this scenario.
yeasties;
The thing about trading pitchers for hitters or visa versa is this….
MLB is more of a coaches league every year. Those coaches – with an “s” – work with the players literally every single day. They make adjustments to the players approach and execution, constantly look at video, breakdowns as to what the player is doing.
If a team can’t coach pitchers and’/or hitters successfully, trading for established players won’t help. No matter how successful, players need constant adjustments during the season (some of that is due to minor injuries). The Mariners don’t do that very well with their hitters. Trading for name ones will only last so long.
Watch.
@Samuel, I think you make some fair points there. One big problem is that many players pay for their own coaches these days. The team’s coaches should be working together with the player’s coaches. Do they? I have no idea, but that sort of thing is seems opaque to fans and complicates the situation..
Voctor Robles seems like the exception to this rule.
mlb fan;
He churns his roster too much.
Was a bit stunned the day the Luis Castillo trade was announced. Told myself: “There he (Dipoto) goes again!”.
The team had what then needed to support pitching (in order): 1) A pitchers park for half their games; 2) A quality catcher (one of the best in MLB) that can run a game, handle pitchers, block balls in the dirt, and keep baserunners honest; 3) A terrific defensive SS (and like C, anything he
hits is gravy); and 4) A solid young ballhawk in CF.
What they needed was to develop some young position players that could hit, and maybe had the speed to turn a game.
So he trades some of his valued position playing prospects for yet another starter, and knowing the pitcher could leave in free agency. Gives him a large (not outrageous) multi-year contract. Thereby assuring that instead of developing cheap young position players, he’s now backed myself into a corner with the budget (so the fans can kvetch about ownerships budget – indignant fans of all losing teams that mismanage their budgets find a home here at MLBTR…..in the articles and the chatroom boards).
I don’t know why, but there’s something amiss in Dipoto where he doesn’t understand how important it is to build balanced rosters that give a manager multiple ways to win a game on any given day. The sustainable contenders do that. And oftentimes they get to the playoffs and beyond.
It cost the M’s a prospect who got popped for PED’s. The Reds clearly lost that trade.
Spending unfortunately in how I meant it was over-spending. I’d actually say that Cano provided an impact bat they needed at the time, but after half his contract, we knew he’d decline. And being popped for juicing obviously didn’t help. I agree with yeasties here, that I wouldn’t trust Jerry to trade from our pitching as he cannot evaluate Major League hitting.
Oddly enough, this may have been Dipoto’s most successful year bringing in bats. We all know the misses, but Raley, Arozarena, Robles, and Turner were hits.
It’s too bad they came late, or weren’t used much early enough.
Robby wasn’t that bad of a contract, it was an overpay to make him go to Seattle but we had almost playoff teams with him and Nelson and seager
Almost playoff teams are not that bad in mariners lore
Dipoto didn’t make the Cano signing. He’s done alright spending big on Julio, Castillo, and Ray
Cano outperformed that contract while a Mariner.
I agree c us, this team won’t win a pennant until there’s a new owner
Talk about a dysfunctional franchise man
Good luck with that Jerry
I don’t hate the idea of a Raley/Locklear platoon at 1B. Also, would love to see Bliss get a full season at 2B. Dude could be a legit 20/50 guy.
Spend the money on Bregman for 3B and we’re set. At least they’ll save $12M by not picking up Polanco’s option.
I think Bregman will want to go to a winning environment.
Bregman already won 2 World Series
It’s time to get paid.
Bregman will be severely overpayed and is going to fall of a cliff!!!
That’s what I think, too, Misty. 7 years 151 (Chapman’s extension) seems to be his floor. Ah hell naw. Not being cheap, I just think he will suck for more than half that contract, so here’s my idea:
1, sign that Korean dude Kim who’s got exactly the skills we need (high AVG, puts the ball in play, high OBP, speedy as heck);
2, Re-sign Turner
3, Bliss at 3B. If he fails, I bet Young would be ready after 2-3 months in AAA. And if HE fails, get someone at the deadline;
4, at least two good relievers, one a lefty. Brash won’t return until June at the earliest and Santos needs to show he can stay healthy.
Bregman is a high quality player. However, if he were a Mariner, he’d be an annual 15 home run bat. He hits some of the shortest distance home runs in MLB.
Wake me up when DiPoto ever wins anything.
Carl – Considering you’re a law officer, I’m surprised you didn’t mention the infamous Belltown.
@Carl,
Eatin’ donuts is more like it!
Ouch
Wake me up after Dipoto gets fired.
A lot will depend on what happens with Root Sports this winter. Both the Kraken and Trail Blazers have left the network, leaving the Mariners as the only pro sports team with games there (plus they’re the majority owner). I don’t know if an RSN can survive with only one team and the rest of the time filled with low-end MMA, poker shows, and infomercials. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the network fold in the next few months; then the M’s would either go with a local broadcast package or take the Rockies and Padres route and stream all their games directly through MLB. Once they have a better feel for their revenue stream from TV, they’ll be able to determine what (if anything) they can spend on offense.
They might have to pursue a similar course to last season when they essentially tied younger players to bad contracts in trades (i.e., Kelenic). They could go that route with Haniger and/or Garver to clear those contracts (combined $27.5 MM). That would give them some additional financial room to work with.
That being said, the notion that they don’t have to do much is far-fetched. They have to upgrade at four positions minimum: 1B, 2B, 3B, and DH. Bliss is an interesting internal option at 2B, as he and Robles could form a 1-2 with blazing speed at the top of the lineup to give J-Rod and Raleigh more RBI chances (not to mention more fastball opportunities.) But they will need to go outside the organization to fill the other holes.
The RSN fiasco will continue to affect what more than half of baseball does, or feel they can do, before it is resolved.
Robby the robot has let it go on too long but his large market masters probably are directing him not to because they want to keep their extreme advantage.
Someone pls correct if I am wrong, but one hilarious thing about the Root Sports fiasco is that one of the reasons the Mariners bought it was concern over the return of the Sonics and arrival of the NHL.
It was all tied into their underhanded shenanigans of knee capping any new teams like that “The Mariners are first and foremost civic minded and must point out that the city can’t possibly build a new arena for the NBA or NHL, because Seattle parking and roads are completely full when a NFL and MLB game is on that day” nonsense.
A fitting outcome for the Mariners ownership.
Another funny aspect to this, that bulldog Geoff Baker was the Seattle Times’ Mariners beat writer at the time and doing the reporting on this stuff. Now he works for the Kraken.
Stanton said it’s not a part of their calculations any more. Of course, he lights his pants on fire quite often, so …
Didn’t the marlins say that too, and look how that worked out.
The problem isn’t Dipoto not wanting to trade pitching, it’s ownership’s unwillingness to pony up to sign FA hitters. There are precedents for teams winning a WS title on strong pitching with only adequate hitting.
The M’s pitching staff is tied for the 4th youngest in MLB. It’s reasonable to believe they will only be getting better going forward. Seeing how the Dodgers and Giants, both seem to have a surplus of pitching going into the season, only for them to see that surplus vanish, that if I were Dipoto, I’d do the same.
It’s more than just being unwilling to sign free agent hitters. Free agent hitters don’t want to come here because a) T-Mobile is one of the more pitcher friendly parks in all of MLB and b) the ownership group has a BAD reputation at this point. That’s why Dipoto has become “Trader Jerry”, especially with regard to hitters. Until ownership makes changes to the batter’s eye and makes the park more neutral (NOT hitter friendly), it will be very difficult to lure hitters here.
Seattle’s hitting was worse than expected. This can easily change next year. Plus, Rodriguez will have pressure to figure out his woes and have a great season. Robles is a decent leadoff, and the team can bring back some injured/inconsistent guys with a clean slate to a devilishly good pitching team. There is at least 5+ wins easy without major additions.
Not a Mariners fan but with their history of not paying big time free agents what’s the plan to improve offense. Gotta give up something to get something. Pitching is something they have great wealth of. Evidently M’s are pretty good at developing pitchers also . If I’m M’s fan I would be a little disturbed by his attitude
I am a Mariners fan. Can confirm: I am disturbed by his attitude.
The plan seems to involve spaghetti and a wall.
I would give them Jackson Holliday Ryan Mountcastle Coby mayo and Cade Povich for woo and miller
Orioles need to get in there and trade Holliday for either woo or miller
With how Oriole prospects have (not) been panning out, I doubt any good GM is going to break the bank on a deal. Only Norby and Ortiz have done much of anything after being dealt, and they haven’t exactly put fear into the hearts of pitchers.
M’s need a league level or 2 proven bat. This is not Holliday, nor is it Mayo.
My plan does not give them that. A bit risky, but I think they could have a smokin second half and be very competitive in the first half anyway. Good teams like the Dodgers graduate prospects for significant roles all the time. It doesn’t always work out, but I would say that’s usually due to not playing every day. Outman stunk this year after being so good last year. Vargas, iirc, played ok after he got traded and played every day.
If my name was John Stanton, I’d either sell the team for as much as possible, or throw money at Willy adames, trade for a 3rd basemen (shoot I’d take Eugenio back if he’s somehow available), trade locklear away and sign Christian walker or keep locklear, look at Blake snell, etc etc
The team can be fixed it can be better it all depends on the big man
Fine, Jerry. Don’t make wholesale changes in the lineup. But if you’re going to do that, move the fences in. Or put the baseballs in a dehumidifier. What’s that? The pitching won’t be as good? Well, shut my mouth, I guess the starting staff was a little overrated due to help from the cavernous, wet ballpark, ranked once again as the best pitcher’s park in the league (baseball savant.mlb.com). Most strikeouts because everyone knows that a fly ball is an out unless it’s a homer. On a positive note, Ha Seong Kim should be cheaper than originally thought because of the surgery, And if Brash and Santos come back (assuming they might), pick up Tanner Scott to have a closer LHP on the squad to complement Muñoz. But really, it’s time to move the fences in once again. Our pitchers can handle it. Right?
All baseballs are stored in the humidifier at every stadium in MLB. But they are still tweaking for environmental differences among the stadiums.
When Stanton sets the new lower budget, Castillo will be traded with a sweetener to cancel his no trade clause to a large market team for a decent infield bat. Hopefully Julio will have more than 37 extra basehits in 2025 and Mariners will hire a good Pony League coach to instruct base running for a team that is amazingly moronic at times
I’ll take Castillo back to Cincinnati in a New York minute.
Maybe that Pony League coach can teach the fielders to call for the ball. I’ve never seen so many collisions on fly balls from a MLB team than the M’s this year.
I think a lot of M’s fans overestimate Castillo’s trade value. He’ll play next year at 32 and is owed roughly 3yrs/$72.5M with a vesting option/TJS protection year. That’s a fair contract which lines up with Sonny Grays deal last year, but leaves little to no room for value compared to market. If Castillo was a free agent this year, I don’t think he’d get much more than his current deal. That means teams would likely be interested in taking him on, but for no more than the equivalent of a QO type prospect.
If the M’s moved a pitcher, it would make sense for it to be Gilbert or Kirby as their price will be rapidly rising over the next few years. However, I don’t think moving pitching makes sense and would likely be lateral moves at best as the downgrade in pitching will cancel out any position player improvement.
There’s routes for them to cobble together a .540+ team. I’m guessing they budget gets upped to 150 or so and it’s called an increase. The issue is they’re probably almost there once raises are accounted for. There’s creative ways to address their needs, but ultimately a higher budget than 150 million would make it easier to do.
I’m sure they will try to do like last year and shed payroll so they can add, but there’s limits to what they can do. They could use/need upgrades at 1B, 2B, and 3B, DH projects to be a black hole, and could use a 4th outfielder that can handle CF, and more bullpen arms. They wont get all that but definitely need to address those spots, even if it’s in-house.
There’s options available and plenty of ways to juggle the team, but it seems free agent hitters don’t want to sign. To actually upgrade via trade, they need to be willing to part with top prospects and the said trade actually needs to be available to them. Just being willing to spend or trade prospects doesn’t guarantee they can find that help without a overspending.
To me they look like an 84 win team next year, as of right now. There’s ways they could improve on that, and even within a budget of 150-160 million, but it’s going to be tough to significantly improve without trading top guys and spending more.
I personally feel they should go hard on trying to add high leverage bullpen arms via free agency, which they may actually do, someone like Tanner Scott or Aroldis Chapman makes a ton of sense.
I don’t think you’ve looked at their payroll enough. With committed contracts and expected arbitration costs, they’re already over $160m and that’s assuming no Turner,Polanco or Rojas and finding a new bunch of BP guys. Their young starters are going to cost about $10m more next year, $25m the following, etc. Forget anything other than more Hannigers and Garvers because that’s what they can do in free agency unless they’re willing to go up to $200m.
No I didn’t fully analyze the payroll but made that statement expecting them to decline Polanco’s option. I think they do what they have been doing. Trade for cheap older former prospect for 2B and 3B, someone cheaper and a few years of control, spitting distance from average projection (I’m guessing they trade Rojas to avoid the pay hike), do something like resign Turner, play musical chairs with the bullpen and AAAA depth pieces, are a could middle relievers, ans try desperately to dump whatever portion of the two Mitches contracts that they can. I don’t think they need to spend 200m but would definitely need to increase payroll and be willing to part with prospects to significantly increase their playoff odds. I think they try to move Harry Ford due to Raleigh’s presence, and pieces like Arroyo and Morales and Farmelo are all on the block. I don’t think they trade Cole Young or Colt Emerson this off-season but could be wrong. I also suspect they try to move Castillo.
Like I said before think they should target high leverage relievers in free agency since they’re track record with hitters hasn’t been good. I do feel they target the wrong hitters to succeed in Seattle. I think they need to not worry as much about contact and focus on guys to hit the ball really hard. They could also address that by adjusting the park. All that said I feel they repeat last offseason more or less
I like the Ford idea. He’d be the only top-5 guy I’d trade. Arroyo and Farmelo are good pieces, too, but our pitching depth is sketchy. I doubt they move Morales or Evans.
Apparently Jerry was willing to part with any of our top prospects for Guerrero. Why wouldn’t you, haha
If I’m interpreting wins above replacement correctly we’d have 91 wins right now if JP Crawford and Julio had remained healthy. Maybe that fact will entice Alex Bregman to come to Seattle if it looks like Houston’s window has shut.
Those were people who cared cared, those were people who cared cared, they’re all my friends, and they cared.
Not far from the playoffs huh jerry? Why don’t you think about winning a world series you dumb son of a….
It surprises me that more isn’t said about the bullpen issues. Obviously a healthy Brash and Santos would help, but they need more than just those two being healthy.
The pen could be a real s**tshow next year. If they want to spend if free agency a reliever or two, especially a left handed one one makes a ton of sense. I would love to see someone like Chapman in the pen.
They haven’t splurged on a reliever in a long time, but there are a number of good relievers. I agree about a lefty, but Chapman’s off-field issues may be a deterrent.
Do relievers hit?
The bullpen isn’t that much of a problem. Getting 180 IP from healthy Munoz, Brash and Santos, rather than 67 IP solves a lot of problems and puts lower leverage/more specialist players like Speier, Snider, Chargois and Taylor in roles they can succeed in and reduces their exposure. I wouldn’t hate adding a talented lefty option over Saucedo though (although Brandyn Garcia could be an interesting option to watch in spring training as he could be moved from an SP prospect to an elite reliever).
Asking 3 relievers to give you 180 innings after 2 of them missed all or most of 2024 is a huge stretch. We don’t know what they’re going to get from Brash and Santos, hence the importance of depth and alternatives for the late innings.
Seattle’s bullpen ranked 27th in baseball (Fangraphs) in the second half. They need at least a couple of upgrades.
They pitched very few innings as a group. From July 1st through the end of the year they accounted for 232 innings more than 10 innings below the 2nd closest team and 70 innings below the average. In that span, they also had the 9th best ERA, 18th best FIP and 12th best xFIP. Remove the 14.6 innings from Ryne Stanek and Yimi Garcia in which they put up like a 7 ERA and -0.8 WAR and the group was respectable before adding back their main two high leverage arms and giving Munoz an offseason to move past his various ailments.
Furthermore, Colin Snider looks like another waiver wire gem and Troy Taylor performed well in his MLB debut. Trent Thornton also looks like a solid middle relief piece after a strong 70 IP this year. Gabe Speier is the biggest question mark after he lost control last year amid struggling with injury. If he performs at his 2022/2023 level he offers a strong LHP option.
It’ll be interesting to see if the team holds onto arbitration eligible guys like Voth and Chargois who were OK, but are more suited for non-leverage roles. As disappointing as it is, Saucedo probably should be replaced.
They obviously threw far less innings as a group because the rotation consistently went deep. The numbers look semi-tolerable when you break them down, but collectively, it was bad. They blew a number of quality starts, and of course the mistakes were amplified by the offense’s inability to do much prior to September.
Again, they can’t head into 2025 banking on Brash and Santos to handle too much. If time proves they can, great, but Seattle really needs to be prepared for the worst and it’s the names you mentioned that may be on the move. I’d add Bazardo to that list. Even though he’s pitched well since being recalled, they’ve been careful with him and he’s now out of options, if I’m not mistaken.
Another arm certainly never hurts, but if the budget is $20M in FA (which is likely higher than what they will actually be granted) than it’s hard to justify paying $8-12M on a high leverage LHP option (especially when accounting for reliever volatility).
I also do have a quite a bit of faith in JD and Pete Woodworth to identify another waiver wire pickup who they can tinker with and turn into an above average reliever.
They could really use a high leverage lefty and a quality middle relievers to add to the mix. If they end up with Santos and Brash healthy and effective then could be a really good bullpen. I don’t see that as a problem for a team with playoff aspirations.
I agree. I just want to see them be prepared to be without Brash and Santos, and hope that they can return healthy and consistent.
Brash won’t be ready until late June and Santos hasn’t proven he can stay healthy. Knock off the dumpster diving and reclamation projects–it finally bit us in the ass this season–and sign Scott and one other proven BP arm.
Not all “proven” RPs are destined to fail.
If you have $20M to spend, are you really going to spend $15M on Scott? I think he is great, but spending a large chunk on relievers is just a mega market thing. Otherwise, you are better off relying on the lab polishing some new gems.
Especially since Brash will not be back until June. Or later.
I think they’d be foolish to not listen on one of them at least. Move one for a quality hitter (or a couple of near MLB ready players) and just sign a cheap veteran/call up a prospect for the fifth spot. If they make the playoffs sure that rotation is powerful but it doesn’t matter if you can’t make it
Good take. They’d be more likely to find a free agent pitcher who wants to come to Seattle than a hitter so they could potentially sign a pitcher if I’m they trade a pitcher for hitting. That assumes they want to increase the payroll which I doubt. If they did someone like Snell could allow them to trade a young pitcher and possibly still have a better rotation and lineup. I don’t see it happening though.
The Mariners really don’t need to do much this offseason. Again, we have a lot of offensive talent on its way up to the majors here in the next few years, and our offense has been one of the best offenses in baseball in September. Edgar is being begged by the Mariners to stay in some capacity, and I appreciate that Dipoto is re-evaluating the organizational philosophy, and noticing that there are things that aren’t working. Given that humility, I’m willing to give Dipoto a chance, though I still don’t trust him. A lot of players on the offensive side, severely underperformed this season, but September showed us that we’re more than capable of being a playoff team. One thing we need to do is re-sign Justin Turner. The guy is fantastic! Our starting pitchers and bullpen though should be completely off-limits. Our top five prospects should be completely off-limits. It would be unwise to trade from these groups to better an offense that was bad because the coaching and philosophy was bad, not because the players aren’t talented. I believe that by retaining our pitching staff and waiting for these prospects to come up, that we’ll very quickly turn into the 2017 Astros (talent-wise), and win the world series by 2027.
The Mariners don’t have any top (10) prospects on the offensive side ready to debut in 2025, and 2026 isn’t a guarantee. They need to address 3B, 2B, DH, find a platoon partner for Raley at 1B,, backup catcher, and ensure that someone other than Moore can handle an outfield corner. They need a couple of relievers minimum as well.
They have a TON of work to do this offseason!
Backup Cs are easy to find. I think they still have Zevala and Garner.
Turner would be a good DH/1B platoon partner. Moore can play CF, but he’s a UT and only played a lot due to injuries.
I say, re-sign Turner, get that Korean guy Kim (not the Padres’ Kim; there’s a really fast, high-AVG, high-OBP, high contact-rate guy they are posting. Perfect dkills for M’s. Plus lots of bags. Then you fill 3B with Bliss or another prospect.
Totally agree about getting Scott + 1.
We have two top 100 prospects who will debut next year in Young and Ford. We also have Locklear who is fringe top 100 and will enter spring training with a shot with making the Opening Day roster. Now will JD give any of them a chance is a completely different question, but the young talent is ready.
Bliss does NOT have the arm to play 3rd. TBH he barely has the arm to play 2nd.
Zevala elected free agency.
Every time Dipoto does an interview I feel like I’m being sold a car without an engine.
That’s why ownership likes him. Mr. 54 Percent. It starts at the top and works it’s way down. That’s why this team hasn’t won anything in 48 seasons.
Anthony Santander is a FA at the end of the year. I’d hate to see him go but he’s a heck of a talent and will command a ton of money that my O’s will need to keep Gunnar and/or Rutchsman.
I think your team’s top priority should be re-signing Burnes, maybe Santander, too. Elias said they were going to raise payroll for next seadon’s roster.
This discussion completely skipped DH which is the clearest spot that the team needs to address and the easiest spot to improve the lineup. Free Agents bats like Santander or Alonso would make sense. Trade targets like Yandy Diaz or Josh Naylor would also be good fits.
2B has solid internal options in Ryan Bliss and Cole Young. The 3B platoon of Moore/Rojas, while below average offensively, still provided decent value from their defense and base running. So long as they are locked into the 8/9 spot in the lineup they are livable while we wait one more year for Colt Emerson and Michael Arroyo to reach the majors.
Not a fan of Alonso. He is declining. Look at his stats, he used to be a high-AVG guy. He will only get worse. Let a dumb(-er)team sign him.
Turner is a decent DH/1B platoon partner for Raley, plus who knows, Garver may well bounce back to 2023 form.
I think the guys we’re waiting for are Cole Young and Lazaro Montes. Young was in AA last year; I see Arroyo and Farmelo as trade bait; Young may stay in AAA for 2-3 months before getting promoted if he’s doing well and Bliss fails.
Actually I think Lazaro was also in A+ this season. So another year for him. Two or 3 for Felnin. 1-2 forv20-year-old low-A Colt Emerson.
I think they move Harry Ford. Love the guy, but we can extend Cal, I think.
I wonder if he’ll trade Emerson…
I think he is unlikely to trade any of the top 5 aside from Harry Ford. They all have star potential. We’ve got Arroyo, Farmelo, and other prospects teams like.
I had thought it would be a good idea to trade Morales or Evans or both, but now I don’t. They would then have only 7 SPs and they should have 9-10.
Fun chat, M’s fans!