The qualifying offer is one of the key mechanisms of free agent season, as teams have until five days after the end of the World Series to decide whether or not to issue the one-year contract (this winter worth $21.05MM) to eligible free agents. If a player has played with his team throughout the entire 2024 season and hasn’t received a QO in the past, he is eligible to be issued a qualifying offer, and thus the player can opt to accept the QO and forego free agency altogether.
If the player rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere. Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will receive should one of their qualified free agents indeed head to another club….
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays
If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of next year’s draft. (For instance, the Twins received the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 draft when the Cardinals signed Sonny Gray to a three-year, $75MM contract last winter.) If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round. The 2024 draft didn’t have of these latter selections, but in 2023, these compensation picks were the 68th, 69th, and 70th overall selections.
The Brewers will surely issue Willy Adames a qualifying offer, and the Orioles are just as certain locks to extend QOs to both Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander. Christian Walker also seems pretty likely to receive a QO from the Diamondbacks. Michael Wacha is expected to decline his $16MM player option for 2025 and re-enter the free agency market, and thus the Royals could well decide to issue a qualifying offer to the veteran righty. Nick Martinez is a borderline candidate for a QO, just because $21.05MM is a steep price tag for a lower-payroll team like the Reds to give to a pitcher who might be best utilized as a swingman. Martinez is another player facing a decision on a player option, as he can opt out and leave $12MM on the table to again pursue free agency.
Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox
For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM). The Angels qualified for this bracket in 2023 by just barely squeezing under the tax line, thus enabling the team to receive the 74th overall pick as compensation when Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers.
This year’s free agent class offers a few borderline QO candidates from these six teams. Boston’s Tyler O’Neill and San Diego’s Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim could conceivably get qualifying offers, though the teams could be weighing the pros and cons right up to the QO deadline. In Kim’s case, the Padres will want all the information they can get about how the shortstop is faring in the early stages of his recovery from shoulder surgery.
Teams In Limbo: Blue Jays, Cubs
It should be noted that these lists of teams and their Competitive Balance Tax status won’t be finalized until the league releases its official numbers in December. It usually isn’t too difficult to figure out which teams surpass the $237MM tax threshold, and sites like RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts do excellent work in calculating luxury tax estimates over the course of a season. MLB’s internal calculations could differ, however, or factor in some salary data that isn’t publicly known, so we won’t know for a while yet if Toronto and/or Chicago are tax payors or not.
The Cubs are just barely past the $237MM tax line in the view of both public websites — RosterResource has their 2024 tax number at slightly above $238.4MM and Cot’s has an even closer call of $237.2MM. The two sites split when it comes to the Blue Jays, as RR has them over the threshold at roughly $240.4MM, while Cot’s has the Jays under the threshold at around $234.98MM.
While this tax status may impact whether or not the Cubs and Blue Jays will pursue any QO-rejecting free agents, it’s a bit of a moot point here, as neither club has any free agents who seem like viable candidates for a qualifying offer. If Cody Bellinger exercises his opt-out clause, Chicago can’t issue him a QO since Bellinger already received one in the past.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees
If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2025 draft. In the 2024 draft, these were the 134th, 135th, and 136th overall picks.
Juan Soto (Yankees), Alex Bregman (Astros), Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers), Max Fried (Braves), and Pete Alonso (Mets) are all locks to receive qualifying offers. The Mets could also weigh offers for Sean Manaea or Luis Severino, with Manaea seen as very likely to opt out of the final year of his contract with New York.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
I love reading the mariners in the same sentence as the a’s and rays
NashvilleJeff
“The A’s and Mariners are in the AL West but the Rays are not.” There you go! Trying to cheer up a guy whose posts are entertaining.
Bart Harley Jarvis
Nicely done, NJ!
aragon
It is such an injustice that the mariners receive $$$.
Lindor's Bodyguard
It does seem ridiculous. There’s a ton of regular people and moneyed people within 60 miles of Seattle.
sad tormented neglected mariners fan
Seattle and Arizona shouldn’t be there we aren’t small markets
But the cheap be cheap (I don’t know how cbt works though)
MartialArtisan
Yep, as the most profitable team in a league swimming in money the Mariners are the last team that should be receiving welfare.
padrepapi
Tyler O’Neill hit 31 HR but only had 61 RBI’s which I wonder if that is some sort of record of fewest ribbies with 30+ HR?
Looking into that further 45 of those RBI’s came via the homerun. So only 16 RBI’s that weren’t from a HR. Seems like a 1 trick pony to me.
I think Boras advises him to take the 1/21m. So unless the RS are fine paying him that they should probably pass.
mrkinsm
If I were him I’d take it and hope for a repeat year – then he can get a 100M$ offer 12 months from now.
DBH1969
Sox should offer and he should accept. Win-win. Or at least a draw-draw lol.
Acoss1331
Cubs are probably a little more interested to see if Cody Bellinger opts out of his deal. That’s the storyline to watch for them.
yukz
Toronto got rid offloaded a lot of contracts at the deadline, getting below was their main motivation, so I believe they’ll be bellow the line, just by a little.
Ferpad
This is an unnecessarily complicated process. Everyone should get or pay the same compensation for losing/signing a QO player.
Fever Pitch Guy
Sean McAdam is reporting neither O’Neill nor Pivetta will likely receive a QO.
Can’t blame them as each would be a massive overpay for a team that has publicly stated it has no intention of contending until at least 2026.
metsin4
I would definitely give one to O’Neil.
all in the suit that you wear
Fever Pitch Guy: a team that has publicly stated it has no intention of contending until at least 2026
===========
Completely False. Never happened.
Salvi
O’Neill receives a QO. = Red Sox need a short-term RH Bat in the OF.
Pivetta does not get QO = Too expensive.
Lindor's Bodyguard
$21 million for a guy who typically plays 60% of the games…. No.
DBH1969
But isn’t 60% the new 90%? Kinda like 5 innings pitched is the new 7?
User 4245925809
Really think Oneil is a safe bet, with Boras being his normal self and dreaming of some huge, 50-60m pie in the sky somewhere Fever..
My biggest flop this offseason is if yet another Boras dude.. One profar should be offered a QO, he of 1 decent season in like a 15y career.. What does Boras due? O’Neil is 2x the player that profar is and my money is on O’Neil easilly putting up better #’s in ’25, but Boras?? What if SD takes the gamble and offers up 21m for 25? Could Boras put his irrationality aside and accept it??
padrepapi
Me thinks if the Red Sox or Padres are dumb enough to offer either O’Neill or Profar the QO Boras will advise them to accept it. Unless either team is fine over paying them for 1 year as neither are sniffing a 21m salary. Personally I think if either landed 3/36m that would be a solid outcome for the player.
jbigz12
Yeah I think both would accept. If not they’ll be signing pillow contracts with less AAV for this year in April.
yetipro
Fried is a good athlete for a pitcher & doesn’t over-tax his body like many of his contemporaries. Anyone can be subject to bad luck, but he ought to be a solid investment. They’ve been paying old man Morton how much all the way into his 80s. Fried fits a pretty similar profile. They’ve got to bring him back especially when shortstop and one outfield spot will likely be black holes in 2025.
RunDMC
He doesn’t over-tax his body, but still consecutive seasons missing time with arm issues, not including continued blister issues that will continue to be bothersome for the rest of his career. I appreciate the guy, but when was the last FA SP contract 100M+ that has been worth it? ATL having the 2nd best team ERA in MLB means they don’t got to pay him what the market will. 2 of Morton’s 4 seasons were worth it, but he still averaged better than average production (per ERA+) at no less than 163 IP/season. Considering his deals were short-term with $0 buyouts, ATL was willing to pay him a little more. All in all, he filled in quite nicely, but it’s time to part ways.
metsin4
I wouldn’t sign any of these free agent pitchers to 7-8 year deals and they will all ask for it. The only one I can really say was good for his entire contract was Scherzer with the Nationals.
Ma4170
Cole has been living up to his contract as well
RunDMC
Eh, every other year, since signing the deal, there’s some elite (2020 notwithstanding) production.
bWAR/season:
2020: 2.2
2021: 5.7
2022: 2.6
2023: 7.4
2024: 2.0
Are ’21 & ’23 enough for the other years? He’s more than half through the contract and has excelled at times, but the negative about these long deals are the backend, esp. worrisome after 2024 injury. I’d think, bare minimum, he’d need to have 2 elite years out of the remaining 4 for that contract to be worth it, imho. Maybe that changes if they get a WS win during his least productive reg season during the contract…
Ma4170
I think he has. WAR is not the best to evaluate pitchers IMO but dont want to get into that debate. But 2020 was a shortened season so that WAR is very good along with the actual stats (2.84/0.96 11.59 k/9, 2.1 bb/9, 3.38 xFIP). 2021 and 2023 elite like you said. 2022 3.50/1.02 again a k/bb over 5… 21 qs. Thats still ace level production.
Last year was really the only one that didnt live up to the contract.
itsmeheyhii
Gleyber probably would have played himself into a QO if the compensation were higher. Wonder if they might do it anyway since there isnt really a long term solution available internally.
FOmeOLS
This is as complicated as a congressional budget proposal.
I’m just glad the Os will get at least two additional picks, which, god willing, they will spend on pitching.
metsin4
Good chance they lose picks too.
mrkinsm
Congressional Budget Proposals are not complicated. HOR members stick in as much money as they can get back for their districts….more so for the companies who fund their elections.
darkknight920
Honest question: considering the Orioles also control the Nationals TV rights besides their own, how is it that they also receive revenue sharing money.
metsin4
Because it’s a dumb system. None of the markets are that small. Owners use it as an excuse to be cheap.
jsklfc
This system is absolutely stupid and have to imagine it will be modified in a future CBA. Reality is the benefit for revenue sharing recipients is and should be…. revenue. Many of them are also well run clubs that have no issue challenging every year for the post season. (My club, for what it’s worth, is run like garbage and no amount of tinkering with the system will ever help so I have no skin in the game, it’s just a poor system)
Goku the Knowledgable One
so much copium for a league that obviously needs a salary cap.
BigV
I appreciate this information
baseballguru
Definitely issue a Qualifying Offer to Tyler O’Neil and Probably Nick Pivetta