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2024-25 MLB Free Agents

Free Agent Prediction Contest Winners Notified

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4,344 people entered into our 2024-25 MLB Free Agent Prediction Contest, and only one was able to manage a batting average over .230.  Congratulations to Allan Cameron, who correctly predicted the destinations of 13 out of 48 free agents for a robust .271 average!  No one else topped 11.  Allan was correct on Juan Soto, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander, Sean Manaea, Teoscar Hernandez, Christian Walker, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Michael Soroka, Shane Bieber, and Shinnosuke Ogasawara.

For his excellent prognostication skills, Allan will receive $500 plus a free one-year subscription to Trade Rumors Front Office.  The top three won cash prizes, and the top 15 received the Front Office subscription.  All winners have been notified via email.  As per our rules, David Robertson and Spencer Turnbull were excluded from contestants’ batting averages, as those two pitchers were unsigned as of Opening Day.

Congratulations to Allan.  Look out for the 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Prediction Contest this November!

Details On Lance Lynn/David Robertson Offseason Asking Prices

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David Robertson was the 47th-ranked player on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, yet the veteran reliever is still looking for a contract as the calendar approaches mid-April.  Veteran starter Lance Lynn was an honorable mention on our list, and while there wasn’t any indication that Lynn was considering hanging up the cleats after 13 big league seasons, Lynn rather surprisingly announced his retirement two weeks ago.

On paper, both pitchers seemed like sure bets to land respectable contracts this winter, but what happened?  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale explored the subject as part of a larger piece about the somewhat still market that several free agents (including even top names like Corbin Burnes) faced this offseason, or in past offseasons.  As Lynn put it, “you know what you think you’re worth, you know where you want to be, but teams look to try to get a guy as cheap as possible…..I was in a weird market where every team could afford me, but 20 to 25 teams are not looking to compete.  Every team has the same playbook.”

The Cardinals didn’t exercise their $12MM club option on Lynn for the 2025 season, instead buying him out for $1MM and sending the veteran back onto the open market.  Robertson was also technically tied to a $7MM mutual option with the Rangers for 2025, but since mutual options are almost always declined by one or both sides, it was no surprise that Robertson passed on his side of the option and instead took a $1.5MM buyout.

Lynn had a 3.84 ERA over 117 1/3 innings with St. Louis last year, with a slate of below-average Statcast metrics and two IL stints due to knee inflammation.  His SIERA was 4.40, though overall, Lynn’s secondary numbers were more or less the same as they were in 2023, when Lynn was perhaps unlucky to post a 5.73 ERA over 183 2/3 combined innings with the White Sox and Dodgers.

Acknowledging his age (37), injury history, and modest production, Lynn went into the offseason with an $8MM asking price, a significant decrease from both his Cards club option and from the eight-figure average annual values that he has earned over the better part of the last decade.  Lynn was also open to the idea of moving to the bullpen and possibly a high-leverage role, and some teams expressed interest about this possibility.  Still, the Cubs were the only team publicly linked to Lynn’s market, and Lynn heard from other teams that they were only willing to sign him for $4MM if he waited until around June.

“I didn’t hear anything for so long, then everyone started offering basically the same thing,” Lynn said.  “Every team seemed to say, ’This is the best deal you’re going to get.’  When I kept saying, ’No, you’re only paying me half of what I’m worth,’ they said, ’What are you going to do, just not play?’  Well, my answer is yes.”

Obviously the concept of what a particular player is “worth” is subjective, and it seems like no team shared Lynn’s opinion that he would produce $8MM or more of value in 2025.  Lynn’s stance doesn’t seem unreasonable, given his long track record in the majors and the simple fact that every team is always in need of pitching.  Increasingly, however, teams have been less willing to pay past market-established prices for a veteran innings-eater type, as clubs prefer to cover those innings at the back of a rotation with multiple younger pitchers, relievers, or an even lower-cost veteran on a non-guaranteed contract.

Robertson’s situation is perhaps even harder to figure.  Nightengale writes that the reliever was looking for a $10MM salary in his next contract, after earning $10MM in a one-year deal with the Mets in 2023 and then last winter’s $11.5MM guarantee from the Rangers.  Ten different relievers (not counting Clay Holmes, who signed with the Mets a starter) inked deals with at least a $10MM average annual value this past offseason, so Robertson’s ask wasn’t out of line with the rest of the market.

Though Robertson just celebrated his 40th birthday earlier this week, he wasn’t showing much sign of slowing down while posting a 3.00 ERA over 72 innings with Texas last season.  His 33.4% strikeout rate was one of the best of his career and one of the best of any hurler in baseball in 2024, and his cutter remained one of the game’s more devastating pitches.  Robertson’s walk rate was below average and his hard-contact numbers were only okay, though he limited the hardest contact in the form of very strong barrel numbers.

Robertson’s impressive season came on the heels of two other quality years in 2022-23, so it wasn’t like he was having a sudden late-career revival.  The Cubs (again) and Tigers both reportedly had interest in Robertson this winter, but no deals emerged anywhere, despite the long list of teams who were openly looking for high-leverage bullpen help.  Looking at that list of other relievers who landed a $10MM AAV, there are several names on that list coming off less-productive and more injury-plagued seasons than Robertson, or who lack even his three-year track record of success (to say nothing of Robertson’s overall success across 16 seasons in the Show).

It could be that teams simply couldn’t look past Robertson’s looming 40th birthday, and the added risk associated with committing substantial money to any player of an advancing age.  That said, the exact same logic applied to Robertson heading into age-39 season, and that didn’t prevent him from landing a solid payday from the Rangers.  It seems logical that Robertson would be seeking out a comparable salary coming off an even better season than he delivered in 2023, yet he remains unsigned.  There hasn’t been much word on what Robertson’s next step might be, in regards to whether he is now looking at being an in-season signing, or if he might be weighing a year off or even retirement.

Jeurys Familia Training For MLB Comeback

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Veteran right-hander Jeurys Familia didn’t pitch in affiliated ball last season and didn’t pitch in 2023 beyond the 12 2/3 innings he tossed for the A’s before being released that May. However, the 35-year-old righty has been working out and training ahead of a hopeful MLB comeback, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com.

While Familia’s action has been limited in recent years, he did toss nine innings for Mexico City’s Diablos Rojos in the Mexican League last year, and he’s pitched for los Leones del Escogido in the Dominican Winter League in each of the past two offseasons. He tossed 8 1/3 frames in this year’s DWL and allowed four runs on eight hits and just one walk with five punchouts.

It’s been nearly four year since Familia last enjoyed a healthy, productive season in the majors. He posted ERAs north of 6.00 in 2022-23, but in 2021 the right-hander logged 59 1/3 innings with a 3.94 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate, 51% grounder rate, 11 holds and a save for the Mets.

From 2014-21, Familia was a generally reliable late-inning power arm who missed bats and piled up grounders at a lofty rate. He combined for a 3.20 earned run average, 25.2% strikeout rate, 10.5% walk rate, 55.5% ground-ball rate, 124 saves and 63 holds over that eight-year period — all while averaging better than 96 mph on his heavy sinker.

Time will tell whether Familia can regain that form. His velocity dropped substantially during his 2022-23 struggles; that sinker sat 95.2 mph in 2022 and 93.8 mph in 2023. In 2023, all of his pitches (sinker, four-seamer, splitter, slider) were down about three miles per hour relative to their 2021 levels. Familia’s command, or rather lack thereof, was his biggest issue in 2023, however. He faced 64 batters and issued 13 walks (20.3%) while plunking another. His inability to locate the ball was also apparent in his career-worst 19.6% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate. When Familia missed, he was missing by wide margins.

Even with those red flags, however, Familia is surely looking at a minor league contract and non-roster invitation, leaving no real risk for a team to take a look if he’s sufficiently built up. (Presumably, after he pitched in the DWL, that is indeed the case.) Familia might well need to use Triple-A as a proving ground before climbing back to the big leagues, but his track record alone should lead to some interest if he’s indeed intent on pursuing a return to the majors.

J.D. Martinez Planning To Play In 2025

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Designated hitter J.D. Martinez is planning to play in 2025, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. That’s a notable stance for the slugger as he was considering retiring around this time one year ago.

Martinez ended up playing for the Mets in 2024 with a very late signing. The reports of his pact with the Mets emerged on March 21 and the deal became official on March 23. That clearly was a frustrating situation for Martinez, after he hit 33 home runs for the Dodgers in 2023, slashing .271/.321/.572 for a 135 wRC+.

“Here I am, the team’s breaking in five days, and I don’t even have a team yet,” Martinez said in October, just after the Mets had been eliminated from the postseason. “Your brain goes into a weird mode, where you’re like ’Am I playing? Am I not? Am I playing? Am I not? Is this it? Am I retired? … We weren’t asking for anything that, at the time, I feel like other players hadn’t gotten.”

The annoyance was enough for Martinez to consider hanging up his spikes, relaying that he said to a friend: “I think this it. I’m staying home. This is dumb. I’m begging for a job, and I had a .900 OPS last year.”

In the end, he and the Mets got a deal done and he had a decent season. He hit 16 home runs in 495 plate appearances, putting up a .235/.320/.406 batting line and 108 wRC+. Because he missed spring training and then dealt with some general body soreness, he didn’t make his season debut until late April. The late start doesn’t seem to have impacted his performance, as he was actually better in the earlier part of the season. He slashed .263/.349/.457 in the first half and .199/.282/.340 in the second, leading to respective wRC+ tallies of 130 and 79.

Given the irritating nature of his last trip to free agency, he presumably would like to sign a little earlier this time around. Finding a home for an everyday designated hitter is tough these days. Martinez didn’t play the field at all in 2024. His 12 innings in left field in 2023 are the totality of his defensive work over the past three years.

Many clubs have their DH spot clogged up by one key bat already, such as Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, Yordan Alvarez of the Astros, Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies and others. Some clubs like to keep the slot open so that they can rotate various players through, maximizing flexibility and lessening the workloads of certain individuals. Rebuilding teams like the Marlins or White Sox have playing time available in theory, but they might prefer to give at-bats to young players they are evaluating for future roles.

Of the clubs that are still on the hunt for a big bat, Martinez could be competing with his former teammate Pete Alonso, who is still unsigned as well. It’s possible that Alonso’s situation might impact Martinez, with clubs reluctant to sign Martinez until Alonso makes his choice. The Mets, Blue Jays, Giants, Angels, Red Sox and others have been connected to Alonso recently, so perhaps some of those clubs could consider Martinez a fallback in the coming weeks.

Even though Alonso’s market isn’t shaping up as hoped, Martinez will certainly cost far less. Alonso has reportedly turned down an offer from the Mets in the range of $68 to $70MM over three years. Martinez got a one-year, $12MM deal from the Mets for 2024, though in heavily deferred fashion. He was only paid $4.5MM last year with the rest to be paid out via $1.5MM instalments from 2034 to 2038. Now one year older and coming off a worse platform, he’ll likely have less earning power now.

Justin Turner, Rowdy Tellez, Ty France and Anthony Rizzo are some of the other notable hitters that are still unsigned as well. Like Martinez, each of the guys in that group should be limited to one-year offers based on age and/or recent performance.

2024-25 MLB Free Agents

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The following players are currently eligible for free agency.  Each player’s 2025 age is in parentheses.  Generally, our cutoff for this list is 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the Majors in 2024.

Updated 4-4-25

Catchers

Yan Gomes (37)
Yasmani Grandal (36)

First Basemen

Jose Abreu (38)
Anthony Rizzo (35)
Jared Walsh (31)

Second Basemen

Whit Merrifield (36)

Shortstops

None

Third Basemen

Danny Mendick (31)
Miguel Sano (32)
Cole Tucker (28)

Left Fielders

David Dahl (31)
Adam Duvall (36)
Robbie Grossman (35)
Whit Merrifield (36)

Center Fielders

Aaron Hicks (35)

Right Fielders

Adam Duvall (36)
Avisail Garcia (34)
Whit Merrifield (36)
David Peralta (37)

Designated Hitters

Matt Carpenter (39)
Robbie Grossman (35)
J.D. Martinez (37)

Starting Pitchers

Ty Blach (34)
Aaron Brooks (35)
Anthony DeSclafani (35)
Domingo German (32)
Marco Gonzales (33)
Jordan Lyles (34)
Sixto Sanchez (26)
Spencer Turnbull (32)
Alex Wood (34)

Right-Handed Relievers

Chase Anderson (37)
Daniel Bard (40)
Adam Cimber (34)
Jose Cisnero (36)
Domingo German (32)
Brent Honeywell Jr. (30)
Joe Kelly (37)
Keynan Middleton (31)
David Robertson (40)
Touki Toussaint (29)
Spencer Turnbull (32)

Left-Handed Relievers

Ty Blach (34)
Brooks Raley (37)
Will Smith (35)
Drew Smyly (36)

Martín Maldonado Hoping To Play in 2025

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Catcher Martín Maldonado was released by the White Sox in July and didn’t sign with another club in the final months of the 2024 season. But that doesn’t mean he’s walking away, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (X link) relays that the backstop is hoping to play one more season.

Maldonado, now 38, has a long track record as a glove-first catcher. In almost 4,000 career plate appearances at the major league level, he has produced a batting line of .203/.278/.344. That translates to a wRC+ of 70, indicating he’s been 30% below league average at the plate in his career.

But behind the plate is where he has created his value. He has a career tally of 59 Defensive Runs Saved, one of the top ten marks in the majors from 2012 to the present. Outlets like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast have given him strong grades for his framing, blocking and throwing in his career. On top of those quantifiable elements, he’s been lauded for intangibles like working with pitchers and providing clubhouse leadership.

Despite the lack of offense, he has signed four different contracts in the past six years, each with annual values between $2MM and $5MM. Teams have generally been willing to tolerate his lineup presence in exchange for his other contributions.

He tested the limits of that tolerance in 2024, however, and found a breaking point. He signed a one-year, $4.3MM deal with the White Sox going into the most recent season. But he hit just .119/.174/.230 in his 147 plate appearances, striking out in 34.7% of them while only drawing a walk 5.4% of the time. Though the Sox surely knew they weren’t going to be getting an elite bat, that was poor even by Maldonado’s low standards, so he was released in July.

It appears that Maldonado would prefer a better final act as a major leaguer, so he’ll try to get back in action in 2025. After missing the past few months of the season, he recently suited up for Leones del Escogido in the Dominican Winter League. He hit two home runs in his ten games there but slashed .114/.184/.314 in that small sample, for what it’s worth.

Maldonado won’t have huge earning power with the way his 2024 season went, but what could work in his favor is that the catching market isn’t strong overall. Guys like Danny Jansen, Kyle Higashioka and Carson Kelly represent the top of the free agent market. Clubs like the Nationals, Padres, Marlins, Rays and others could be on the lookout for catching upgrades this offseason, so perhaps Maldonado will be able to find some interest, though he’d likely be looking at minor league offers.

Kevin Pillar Hoping To Play In 2025

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Outfielder Kevin Pillar previously said he was “98% sure” that he was going to retire after 2024, but it seems like he would like to squeeze through that little 2% window he left open for himself. On an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove (video link from X), Pillar said he is now hoping to give it another go next year. He also revealed that he had thumb surgery at the end of the 2024 season.

Pillar, 36 in January, started last season with the White Sox. He hit just .160/.290/.360 in 17 games with that club and was back on the open market before the end of April. He latched on with the Angels and it was during his time with that club that he indicated retirement was likely over the horizon.

He went on to hit seven home runs in 282 plate appearances for the Halos and produce a batting line of .236/.291/.378. Perhaps more important than the statistics was that Pillar’s mentality changed, according to the man himself. “For the first time in probably forever, I was just playing for the love of the game, the joy of the game,” Pillar said of his time with the Angels. “I wasn’t worried about tomorrow, the next day, my future. And I found a lot of success in that.”

He adds that, after some time to reflect, he is “pretty sure” that he still wants to play. He doesn’t know if any club will offer him a spot, but he plans to stay in shape and will answer the phone if someone calls. Pillar spent about two weeks on the injured list in September due to a left thumb sprain. In the clip, he mentions that he underwent surgery at the end of the season, though he gave no indication that the procedure is impacting his offseason preparations.

At his peak, Pillar was a solid everyday player, overcoming subpar offense with his strong glovework and baserunning. From 2015 to 2021, he got into 940 games for various clubs, hitting .261/.298/.412 for a wRC+ of 88. But he stole 91 bases in that stretch and was graded as an above-average center fielder, allowing him to produce 10 wins above replacement over those six full seasons plus the shortened 2020 campaign.

Since then, he’s been more of a role player. He can still play center field a little bit, though only sporadically and with grades closer to league average. He hit .225/.271/.387 in 185 games over the past three years for a wRC+ of 79, swiping another 16 bags.

Pillar has hit lefties better in his career, with a 106 wRC+ with the platoon advantage and a 78 without. That continued to be the case in 2024, with a 139 wRC+ against southpaws and a 54 mark otherwise. For any club looking for a right-handed hitting bench outfielder who can play competent defense and run the bases, Pillar is available and surely won’t cost much, after getting a $3MM guarantee from the White Sox in 2024.

Teams like the Red Sox, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Tigers and others could be looking for right-handed bats to supplement their respective outfields. Pillar will join players like Teoscar Hernández, Tyler O’Neill, Randal Grichuk, Ramón Laureano, Austin Hays, Tommy Pham and others as righty-swinging outfielders that will be under consideration.

Rich Hill Open To Pitching In 2025

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Free agent left-hander Rich Hill is representing the United States in the Premier12 tournament, scheduled to start Thursday night’s game. But he’s open to returning to Major League Baseball in 2025, which would be his age-45 season.

“I obviously love the game of baseball, I love the work and competition or I wouldn’t be doing this,’’ Hill says to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “But we’ll see what the future holds as far as playing. I’m not sure if this will be it or not. I think we’ll probably know in a month or so. I’d love to play another year and have an opportunity to get into the postseason and win a World Series. That’s everybody’s dream. I’ve been close a couple of times, but it’s not like anything I’ve experienced in the game. Playing in the postseason, there’s nothing like it. Nothing at all like it.’’

Despite that willingness to keep taking the mound, he also seems to be aware the opportunity might not come. “I know I can still provide innings,” he says. “But, if not, and that’s it, I can call it on my own terms, knowing I’ve been fortunate to have a lot of really cool experiences in this game.’’ If Hill doesn’t get the playing opportunity he’s looking for, Nightengale relays that Hill would be open to non-playing roles, perhaps in coaching or some other off-field position.

Hill is coming off an experimental 2024 season that didn’t go especially well. He tried to follow through on a creative plan wherein he would intentionally sit out the first half of the season. The idea was that he could spend time with his family and keep his arm fresh for a stretch run, then pick his landing spot based on how the season was playing out.

It was an unorthodox script but one with some thought behind it. Hill signed with the Pirates in 2023 and pitched decently, posting a 4.76 earned run average. But he then got flipped to the Padres before his results backed up and the club fell from contention. The idea behind his 2024 plan was that he would save his gas for later in the year, as opposed to running out in the late summer. He would also theoretically reduce his chances of playing out the final days of the season on a club out of the race.

Unfortunately, the theory turned out to be better than the praxis in this case. Hill followed through on his plan by keeping his arm ready on his own time. But then he settled for a minor league deal for the Red Sox, a fringe contender, in the middle of August. They did add him to their roster in late August but let him make just four relief appearances, in which he posted a 4.91 ERA, before designating him for assignment and then releasing him.

Presumably, Hill is considering a move back to a more traditional timeline for next year, since he says he’ll probably know “in a month or so” whether he’s coming back or not. The 2024 season doesn’t give him much to market to clubs, but he was a fine innings eater for the first half of 2023 and had an ERA around 4.00 in the two prior campaigns. He tossed 158 2/3 innings in 2022 with a 3.86 ERA and then a 4.27 ERA over 124 1/3 innings in 2023.

Given Hill’s age, it’s remarkable that continuing to pitch is even a consideration, but his career arc has rarely taken the obvious path. He had some early career success almost 20 years ago now, including throwing 195 innings in 2007 with a 3.92 ERA. But injuries and underperformance led to a decade of him toiling away without much to show for it. From 2008 to 2014, he was only able to throw 153 big league innings with a 5.41 ERA, bouncing around to various clubs.

But then he had an amazing career resurgence that started in 2015. He parlayed a strong showing with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League into a deal with the Red Sox. A tiny 1.55 ERA in four starts with Boston led to a $6MM guarantee on a one-year pact with the Athletics for 2016. He would post a 2.12 ERA that year between Oakland and the Dodgers, getting traded midseason. That led to a three-year, $48MM deal to return to Los Angeles, a contract that started in his age-37 season, an amazing time for a pitcher to get his big payday.

He gave the Dodgers 327 innings with a 3.30 ERA over the course of that deal. His time with the Dodgers was also when he got most of the postseason experience that he clearly treasures. He did toss three playoffs innings for the Cubs way back in 2007 but then 50 postseason frames for the Dodgers from 2016 to 2019. Unfortunately, a ring eluded him in that time. The Dodgers finally won it all in 2020, their first title since 1988, but Hill signed with the Twins that year.

The results haven’t been as good lately, but that’s not really too surprising, considering his age. Perhaps Hill can again defy the odds and engineer another comeback. If not, one of the more unique trajectories will finally wind down.

Naykel Cruz To Hold Showcase For Interested Clubs

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Cuban left-hander Naykel Cruz is going to hold a showcase for interested clubs next week in the Dominican Republic, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR. Last week, Romero relayed on X that the lefty was expected to sign as a professional rather than an amateur and had interest from six MLB clubs.

During his time in the Cuban National Series, Cruz tossed 241 1/3 innings, allowing 4.18 earned runs per nine. He struck out 205 of the 1,074 batters he faced, a rate of 19.1%. He also gave out walks 15.5% of the time. In his most recent season, he was fairly similar with a 19.8% strikeout rate and 15.8% walk rate. He made Cuba’s roster for the 2023 World Baseball Classic, though made just one appearance which lasted two thirds of an inning.

While the stats might not jump out, Romero relays that Cruz was throwing 90-92 miles per hour during his time in Cuba but has been able to increase that to the 94-95 mph range more recently. He also throws a curveball, sinker and changeup.

Per MLB rules, players coming from foreign leagues such as those in Japan, Korea or Cuba are considered “amateurs” until they are both 25 years old and have played six professional seasons. According to his Baseball Reference page, Cruz turned 25 in September and started playing in the Cuban National Series in 2019.

The distinction can often be important for a player’s earning power, seen most starkly with players coming over from Japan. Yoshinobu Yamamoto waited until he was considered a professional to come to MLB and was able to secure himself a $325MM guarantee. On the other hand, Shohei Ohtani came over when he was still considered an amateur and was therefore subject to the hard-capped limits of the international signing system, securing a $2.315MM bonus when he signed with the Angels.

Last year, fellow Cuban Yariel Rodríguez was declared a free agent and was able to secure a $32MM guarantee from the Blue Jays ahead of his age-27 season. However, Rodríguez was coming off a strong run of play in Japan wherein he tossed 175 1/3 innings over three seasons with a 3.03 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate. He dropped his ERA to 1.15 in his final season playing in Nippon Professional Baseball, striking out 27.5% of batters faced and limiting walks to an 8.3% clip.

It’s unclear if Cruz will actually be considered a professional as he only played in four CNS campaigns. He also played in the Cuban Elite League, a winter ball league, the Mexican League and the WBC. It was reported by Cuba’s Radio 26 in February that Cruz would play for the Kitchener Panthers of Canada’s Intercounty Baseball League but he’s not listed on the Panthers’ stat page and Romero says that Cruz arrived in the Dominican Republic in April with the goal of signing with an MLB club.

His status may be something of a moot point as he won’t have the kind of earning power to get a massive deal. He is probably seen as more of a long-term project than an exciting finished product, as his tools are more interesting than his track record.

There were less than 50 lefties who threw at least 250 pitches in 2024 and averaged over 94 mph on their fastballs, per Statcast, so that kind of arsenal could be attractive to clubs. That could be enough to get him a shot somewhere, making him an intriguing under-the-radar name to watch in the coming months.

Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2024 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series.  The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $21.05MM.  An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere.  This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will have to give up if they sign qualified free agent.…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2025 draft.  Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks.  The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded, as we saw last winter when the Orioles included their CBR-A pick to the Brewers as part of the Corbin Burnes trade package.

It is relatively rare to see teams from this group splurge on a big-ticket free agent, though Baltimore is expected to increase spending under new owner David Rubenstein.  The Tigers also have plenty of payroll space and could look to build more aggressively around their young core, after Detroit unexpectedly made a run to the ALDS this season.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Padres, Cardinals, Nationals, Angels, White Sox, Red Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2025 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

The White Sox and now the Cardinals are both rebuilding.  The Padres can never be ruled out of making a splashy signing, but that seems unlikely given how the team has a lot of its own impending free agents to address, plus San Diego made a point of getting under the luxury tax threshold last offseason.  Angels owner Arte Moreno has said his club plans to contend in 2025 and the payroll will go up, though that might not manifest itself in the form of signing a qualified free agent, given how often the Halos have been burned on such signings in the past.

Washington and Boston are both borderline candidates for a big free agent signing.  The Nats are still technically in rebuild mode themselves, but could decide that the time is right to add some major veteran help to an intriguing mix of younger players.  The Red Sox have generally eschewed pursuits of pricey free agents in recent years, though since they haven’t had a winning season since 2021, ownership might be again willing to be more aggressive in shopping at the high end of the market.

Team In Limbo: Blue Jays, Cubs

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Jays and Cubs managed to sneak under the $237MM tax threshold.  Roster Resource has both teams slightly above the threshold while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Cubs slightly over and the Blue Jays slightly under, so given how narrow the margins are, we’ll wait until the league issues its numbers before putting the two clubs in either the previous category or the next category.

Needless to say, both clubs are hoping for a reset on their luxury tax status, and lesser penalties for signing QO-rejecting free agents.  The Jays and Cubs are also two of the teams facing the most pressure to win in 2025, and thus could be more open to making a big signing to help turn things around.  If MLB’s calculations reveal that Toronto and Chicago did exceed the threshold this year, they’ll join the next group of…

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.

Astros GM Dana Brown has said his team “may have to get a little bit creative” with their spending given how many big contracts are already on the books.  The same could be said for the Phillies and Braves as well, but it is also easy to see both teams remaining aggressive after falling short in the playoffs.  The Rangers have a lot of money coming off the books but, given their uncertain broadcast revenue situation, could spend but still make a point of ducking back under the luxury tax line.  San Francisco will be an intriguing team to watch, now that Buster Posey is running the front office and how the Giants already spent big to keep a pending free agent in the fold by extending Matt Chapman.

Since re-signing Juan Soto or re-signing Teoscar Hernandez wouldn’t cost anything in QO penalties, keeping those sluggers is likely the top priority for the Yankees and Dodgers, with other free agents perhaps as backup plans if Soto or Hernandez signed elsewhere.  The Mets were relatively quiet in David Stearns’ first winter as president of baseball operations, some more big spending might be in the works if owner Steve Cohen wants to build on the club’s playoff run.

All this being said, the higher penalties for CBT payors can be deterrents to spending on qualified free agents in particular.  This doesn’t mean the Yankees wouldn’t look to retain Soto or anything, but teams might prefer to make their big upgrades through trades, or perhaps with free agents who won’t have a QO attached to their services.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2024 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

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