The qualifying offer in the 2024-25 offseason will be officially set at $21.05MM, reports ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported in August that the QO value was expected to land in the vicinity of $21.2MM but would not be finalized until October. This year’s QO value represents an increase of $725K over last year’s mark of $20.325MM. The QO value, which is determined by calculating the average salary of the sport’s 125 highest-paid players, has risen nearly every season since being implemented under the 2012-16 collective bargaining agreement. Here’s a look at the history of the QO value:
- 2012-13: $13.3MM
- 2013-14: $14.4MM
- 2014-15: $15.3MM
- 2015-16: $15.8MM
- 2016-17: $17.2MM
- 2017-18: $17.4MM
- 2018-19: $17.9MM
- 2019-20: $17.8MM
- 2020-21: $18.9MM
- 2021-22: $18.4MM
- 2022-23: $19.65MM
- 2023-24: $20.325MM
For those in need of a refresher or new to the QO system entirely, it was implemented as a competitive balance measure in an effort to ensure clubs would receive compensation in the following year’s draft if their top players depart and sign elsewhere in free agency. Any team can issue a qualifying offer to an impending free agent at the beginning of the offseason, so long as that player A) has never received a QO in the past and B) spent the entire season on that club’s roster. (In other words: players can only receive one QO in their career, and traded players cannot receive a QO — a measure put in place to prevent big-market clubs from acquiring/claiming expensive players from small-market teams who couldn’t afford the risk of a QO themselves.)
Five days after the end of the World Series, teams must decide whether to issue a QO to any of their impending free agents. Those players will have a week to then survey the market to determine what sort of interest is present in free agency before deciding whether to accept a one-year deal at the QO value or reject it in pursuit of a larger contract. Players who accept the QO are considered signed in the same manner as any free agent, meaning they cannot be traded prior to June 15 of the following season without their consent. Players who reject a qualifying offer are then tied to draft compensation, potentially complicating their market in some cases.
In order to sign a player who rejected a qualifying offer, teams must surrender at least one pick — two, in some cases — in the next year’s draft. Some clubs are also required to surrender space from their bonus pool in international amateur free agency.
Any club that pays the luxury tax must surrender its second- and fifth-highest picks in the next year’s draft and forfeit $1MM of international pool space. (Signing a second qualified free agent means surrendering the second- and fifth-highest of their remaining picks, and so forth.) Non-luxury clubs that do not receive revenue sharing must surrender their second-highest pick and $500K of international pool space to sign a qualified free agent. (Again, signing a second such free agent means forfeiting their second-highest remaining pick.) Non-luxury teams who also receive revenue sharing are required to forfeit their third-highest pick to sign a qualified free agent (and their remaining third-highest pick for additional qualified free agents).
There are similar structures in place for the team losing the free agent in question. A revenue-sharing club receives a compensatory pick either at the end of the first round (if the player signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money) between Competitive Balance Round B and round three (if he signs for under $50MM) in the following year’s draft. Non-luxury clubs who do not receive revenue sharing receive a pick after Competitive Balance Round B. Luxury tax payors receive a compensatory pick between rounds four and five of the draft.
The relatively steep nature of the one-year offer and the risk of being “saddled” with a player that the club perhaps did not want to retain (but for whom they’d hoped to net a draft pick) typically lead to only a handful of players receiving the QO. Last year saw just seven players — Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Josh Hader — receive qualifying offers. All seven rejected them. The most recent examples of players accepting the one-year QO came on the heels of the 2022 season, when Joc Pederson and Martin Perez accepted their $19.65MM qualifying offers from the Giants and Rangers, respectively.
There are a handful of slam-dunk QO candidates among this year’s crop of free agents. Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Max Fried, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez will all assuredly receive a QO and are all overwhelmingly likely to reject in search of a multi-year deal. Other candidates to receive a QO include Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Christian Walker, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill, Michael Wacha, Ha-Seong Kim, and Nick Martinez, though not everyone from that group will ultimately receive one. Manaea, Wacha and Martinez all have opt-outs in their contracts they’re widely expected to exercise this offseason. Kim has an $8MM mutual option on his contract that he won’t exercise, although whether he receives a QO could hinge in part on the recovery timetable from his recent shoulder surgery, which is still not known.
There’s no way that Hoffman is considered for a QO, right?
I doubt it. I briefly included him on the list of candidates since I do expect he’ll be the highest or second-highest paid reliever in free agency this winter, but it still feels like a reach to put down a one-year of this magnitude for him so I cut him like a minute after publish, ha. Wondered if I’d still get a quick comment on that though — kudos! Heh.
I will be interested to see if Nick Martinez gets a QO after he opts out.
I think we all know the answer.
I imagine he’d accept, but he pitched well enough this season to at least merit some light consideration. I think he’s less likely to get one than any of the other names I mentioned at the end there.
The Reds’ decision to extend a QO might also hinge on whether they think Martinez may ultimately sign elsewhere for less than $50M. As a team that receives revenue sharing, that has a big impact on the potential compensatory pick Cincy would receive.
The Reds decision will be based on whether or not they intend to lose money on their tv deal. If they intend to take another revenue cut they’ll be less likely to take the risk of him accepting a QO.
Soto is the only one worth 21.5. The others should feel lucky to get 20 especially Adames.
If you feel that way, I think you’re going to do a spit-take when Adames eventually signs this winter.
Agreed, Adames probably one of the few who will, most likely from a top eight revenue team.
Note: I would like the Reds to sign him just to keep him from killing us, though I know it will never happen. Elly, welcome to the outfield!
Adames is a nice piece to have. I think you are right about the state of the game and contracts these days, however. I think a nice piece is probably worth 20+ million in a world where the elite guys are making 30+ mill and more soon.
It is a nice time to be a player that can stick in the league a few years past FA.
I don’t know. He could be late signing because he wants to many years. He isn’t consistently good every year. He will be this years Snell.
Top 8 names he said are almost a guarantee to get it, be dumb for a club not to offer. You get compensation if they leave and even if they accept its ultimately only a 1 year deal anyway.
Why is it guaranteed? Isn’t giving the player a QO even a little bit disrespectful? That’s why the Dodgers didn’t QO Kershaw. I can see Soto going elsewhere if the Yankees tag him with a QO.
Isn’t leaving more disrespectful than a team saying it wants to retain your services?
Kershaw and the Dodgers was a unique situation. It wasn’t about respect or disrespect. They let Kershaw know they wanted him back, but didn’t want to put pressure on him to have to make an early decision on his future. Kershaw was in his mid-30s, had missed games due to injuries, and retirement was an option.
The Dodgers would have matched any offer he got, so the QO was unnecessary. No player receiving a QO ever rejected it because they felt disrespected. They rejected it because they could get more money, and security, on the open market. If giving a QO was so disrespectful, no player would have ever accepted one.
It isn’t disrespectful at all. Kershaw wasn’t offered one because both sides knew he wasn’t going anywhere else.
Yes and no. Putting a QO on a player limits where that player can sign cause some teams won’t give up the baggage that comes with signing that guy in draft picks. I can absolutely see how the player could take limiting their market as a sign of disrespect.
The players aren’t paying the QO any attention all. It would be easier without the QO, but I’d bet real money that not a single one of them will be insulted.
Everyone knows the Yankees want to retain his services. Only $21m guaranteed is kinda insulting for Soto, no?
@Jean Matrac Ok then why would the Yankees put pressure on Soto to have to make an early decision on his future?
The Yankees are also going to match any offer Soto gets so the QO is also unnecessary. Plus Soto’s next contract will almost certainly have an opt-out so declining to QO him means the Yankees can play that card when he opts out.
@Travis’ Wood According to Dodgers fans QO’ing Kershaw would have been a sign of disrespect so go talk to them.
@metsin4 Both sides also know that Soto isn’t going anywhere else so…
@JoeBrady According to Dodgers fans it would have been insulting to give Kershaw one so go talk to them.
@TheGr8One Exactly! And when you’ve accomplished everything Juan Soto has you’ve earned the right to be finicky like that.
Because unlike Kershaw, there is no “pressure” in Soto’s decision. He’s rejecting it. The Yankees would be foolish not to offer one and forfeit the insurance policy of that extra draft pick if he does end up signing elsewhere.
Kershaw was considering retirement, and so he would have had to decide on that (to some degree) earlier than he would have liked. But, lip service about not wanting to pressure him aside, the real reason the Dodgers didn’t offer him a QO was because he could have accepted and then been too injured to pitch. Even the Dodgers don’t want to flush $19mil down the toilet like that. There was no reason for them to offer one.
@baumann There was no pressure in Kershaw’s decision either. He’s not under any obligation to accept the QO. If he declines it he is free to take as long as he wants to decide whether or not he wishes to continue pitching.
The benefit to the Yankees in not QO’ing Soto is that players, both their own & other clubs’, see the first class way that players/men get treated, making them more amenable to signing there. Plus they also hold onto that card for when Soto’s future opt-out date rolls around, since a player can only receive a QO once in his entire career.
So then why are you saying it’s insulting if you think both sides have an agreement for him to stay? Sorry to tell you this but Soto is definitely going to the most money.That will probably be the Yankees but who knows for sure.
Are you serious? The Yankees treat all of them like teenagers and tell them when to shave. I can send you videos of Griffey jr being adamant about retiring before ever putting on their uniform.
Rally Goose, It’s foolish to assume that the Yank’s are a lock for Soto. They’ve had concerns internally with the tax threshold, and there is a point where paying 110% more than what other team’s offers is just too much. A team like the Nat’s can offer more without the penalty. And the Met’s seem more willing to push salaries higher than the Yank’s are.
The Kershaw and Soto situations aren’t a good comp. It was/is different foregone conclusions. Kershaw was going to retire or re-sign with LA. Soto is going to test free-agency. If it was a foregone conclusion that Soto was staying with the Yank’s, vis-a-vis, Kershaw and the Dodgers, they wouldn’t need to offer the QO, but everybody knows Soto going to open market.
Offering the QO is not the same as offering a 1/21 deal. That offer of a deal would be insulting, but offering the QO is not. The QO is not a deal offer, it’s a device to ensure that teams that lose players to free-agency, are compensated. Soto knows that, as does every other player in MLB.
Rally Goose
“There was no pressure in Kershaw’s decision either.”
Yes there was. The decision to accept or reject a QO comes early in the offseason. Kershaw had a lot to consider. He’d been missing numerous games with a bad back, and was considering retirement. Retirement is the single biggest decision a player will make in his career. The Dodgers were
simply giving him time to make that decision. The QO would have forced him to decide right away. Teams don’t do that to an icon who’s been the face of the franchise for over a decade.
You would probably be the only not to join the universal charge of stupidity should the Yank’s not QO Soto. I can’t imagine how Yankees’ fans would react it they didn’t QO him, and then Steve Cohen threw so much money at him that the Yank’s wouldn’t match. The howl from NY would be heard here on the west coast if they lost Soto to the Met’s with zero compensation. This take of yours’ is delusional.
Whether the team “wants” to limit their market is irrelevant. That it “does” limit their market can’t be denied. Some teams won’t give up the pick thereby reducing the possible places a player can get an offer from. If someone gave me an offer they knew I would say no to I wouldn’t call it a show of respect lol
“Whether the team “wants” to limit their market is irrelevant. That it “does” limit their market can’t be denied.”
Agreed, but that’s the system the players want, Sure it may limit their market, but it’s still a free market, and the players will still cash in.
And, you’re doing what @Rally Goose is doing, and that’s conflating a contract offer, with a qualifying offer. Those are two entirely different things.
“If someone gave me an offer they knew I would say no to I wouldn’t call it a show of respect…”
A lowball contract offer, absolutely. But again, a QO, despite the name, is not really an offer. A contract offer is not the same as a QO. To paraphrase your statement, If someone extended a QO they knew I would say no to. I would know it wasn’t about me, but only a team operating as it should; doing what was best for the team. If I’m good enough to get a QO, I know I’m good enough to find a good deal despite being saddled with one.
@Jean Matrac Hahaha I’ll say it again. The Dodgers wouldn’t be forcing Kershaw to do anything by extending the QO. He doesn’t have to accept it. If he declines he is free to take as long as he wants to decide if he wants to continue pitching. It’s not like the Dodgers weuldn’t welcome him back on the same or slightly different terms if he declines the QO then decides he wishes to keep pitching.
@Jean Matrac Exactly what is the hit rate on 4th/5th round sandwich picks?
@metsin4 It’s not me saying it’s insulting.
@Jean Matrac Kershaw knows that too. He also knows he’s under no obligation to accept a QO if he’s not sure he wants to keep pitching, which is what you seem to be missing (or conveniently leaving out).
“Exactly what is the hit rate on 4th/5th round sandwich picks?”
Are you new to baseball? History is littered with all stars drafted in those rounds.
@Rally Goose, Argue all you want about why LA didn’t QO Kershaw. It’s irrelevant.
The point was Kershaw and Soto are not comparable. The idea that the Yankees should not tag Soto with a QO, based on a unique occurrence that happened one time in the 13 years the QO has been around, is absurd.
@Jean Matrac And what, 50x as many washouts drafted in those rounds?
QO’ing Kershaw still wouldn’t have “forced” him to make an early decision on whether or not he wants to retire, or really do anything. The Dodgers aren’t going to not invite him back on his terms if he declines it.
You also leave out the part where a player can only be QO’d once and not QO’ing Soto means they can do it when he opts put in like 5 years.
@Rally Goose, Only an idiot of a GM/PBO would consider a 4th or 5th round draft pick as lacking value. And it’s not a comparison of those picks to higher round picks, it’s the difference between getting compensation versus getting none.
You keep bringing up Kershaw since you apparently have nothing else to base your argument on, when, again (and again and again), LA and Kershaw are completely irrelevant to NY and Soto.
Also irrelevant is the one time use only for a QO. The NYYs won’t be able to use it later if he signs elsewhere this offseason. Your whole strategy is based on the assumption that Soto will re-sign with the NYYs. Assumptions like that lead to losing guys like Soto without compensation, and guys like Cashman getting fired.
@Jean Matrac Why do you keep saying the Dodgers didn’t want to force Kershaw to make an early decision on retirement even though I’ve pointed out several times that the QO doesn’t *force* him to do that or anything else? Why is that?
And missing out on a 4th/5th round sandwich pick while sending a message about the first class way the Yankees treat their players isn’t getting anyone fired lmfao.
@Rally Goose,
“Why do you keep saying the Dodgers didn’t want to force Kershaw to make an early decision on retirement”
I’m not. I said that earlier, but haven’t brought it up again since his situation is irrelevant to Soto.
Keep trying. Your continued effort to make Kershaw relevant to Soto is absurdly obvious. It’s no secret why you want to talk about Kershaw, from a couple years ago, and not talk about Soto and the QO he will get..
But, since you want to talk about Kershaw, okay. The QO system has been around for 13 years. Kershaw was unique in that he is the only player of his stature (or even those worthy, but of lesser stature), to not get a QO on reaching free-agency. Kershaw was developed by the Dodgers, played for no other team and was the face of the franchise. None of that applies to Soto.
Every other big star over the past 13 years has been QO’d. There hasn’t been a hint that any felt disrespected by it. If Soto was guaranteed to re-sign with the Yanks it would have happened by now. Clearly Soto wants to test the market
Your take is as unique as the Kershaw situation. Everybody (except apparently you), knows that the NYYs will do business as they should, just like every other MLB team, and not do something stupid. Soto will be given a QO, and he will reject it.
@Jean Matrac You can’t possibly know that no player has felt disrespected by the QO. And just because Soto hasn’t signed with the Yankees yet doesn’t exactly mean he doesn’t ultimately plan to. Even if he does stay, he’ll get more as a free agent than he would from am extension. The Yankees are not going to bring their best offer to the table if they are the only ones allowed to talk to him.
And plenty of players who were the face of the franchise, drafted and developed by the team and never played for anyone else have gotten QO’s. Aaron Judge for instance.
Rally Goose
“…he’ll get more as a free agent than he would from am extension.”
That is categorically incorrect. Everyone (except apparently you) knows that teams have to overpay to keep a player from reaching free-agency.
I never said no one has felt disrespected. What I said was there hasn’t been the hint that anyone did. You also do not know whether anyone did feel disrespected.
Your last paragraph illustrates the absurdity of your belief that Soto won’t be QO’d, and supports my position. If the Yanks QO’d Judge why in the world would anyone believe that they won’t QO Soto?
@Jean Matrac It is completely correct. You will always have to pay more if the player is able to field offers from all 30 teams than if the market is limited to just you. That is why Scott Boras likes to take his guys to the open market.
Judge’s contract has no opt-outs. Soto’s almost certainly will. That is why it might make sense to not QO Soto. It enables them to keep that card in their back pocket as leverage for when he opts out.
I pointed to Judge as an example of how teams *do* extend the QO to faces of the franchise. So you saying Kershaw was that for the Dodgers proves nothing. And the QO still doesn’t “put pressure on him to make an early decision” either. By. your own admission, it would only be the Dodgers operating as they should; doing what was best for the team. You said that, and I quote, “The Dodgers were simply giving him time to make that decision. The QO would have forced him to decide right away.” Are you saying the Dodgers told Kershaw “If you decline this QO, we will not invite you back for any amount of money?” Because that is the only way your argument makes any sense. He can do whatever he wants if he declines the QO. Even sign with someone else, if he wants.
Neither you, nor I, have any idea whatsoever whether Soto’s next deal will have opt-outs, or not.
You’re still assuming the Yankees will re-sign Soto, so they can save their QO for later. That’s a huge assumption. It’s a gamble that could net the Yanks zero compensation. And it’s an assumption no team is going to make. You may think there’s little value in a comp pick, but MLB teams don’t agree.
And why are you still talking about Kershaw? That situation has no relevance to the situation the Yanks have with Soto. Yes teams extend a QO to players that have been the face of the franchise, and almost always will. Kershaw was a unique occurrence and should not be thought of as any kind of predictor for how the Yankees will engage with Soto.
You are constantly harping on Kershaw, a thing from the past that proves nothing, because you don’t want to address the more germane discussion of the Yankees and Soto. You want to talk about Kershaw because you know you’re dead wrong about the Yankees and whether they’ll QO Soto. They will, he’ll reject it, and if he signs elsewhere they will be compensated. For them to do anything else would be a dereliction of duty, and completely moronic.
@Jean Matrac I’m not going to stop harping on Kershaw because none of the reasons people gave for not QO’ing him are valid.
Soto saw what happened with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper who hit free agency at the same age he will. Machado was able to leverage his opt-out into an extension for more money, Harper is stuck being paid below market value and the Phillies aren’t going to extend him because he already can’t be a free agent until he’s 39. I don’t think he makes the same mistake Harper did.
I don’t think there’s no value in a comp pick, but the hit rate of picks in the 130-140 range isn’t that great.
Rally Goose, Kershaw is irrelevant. The reasons for him not getting a QO have nothing to do with Soto.
You still haven’t admitted that Soto will get a QO.
And as for opt-outs, maybe his deal will have them. And then, maybe not. He could look at Ohtani, and look to get a deal like his, that does not include opt-outs. So again, neither you, nor I, have any idea whatsoever whether Soto’s next deal will have opt-outs, or not.
@Jean Matrac Not irrelevant at all and I never said Soto will or won’t get one I simply shared reasons why it might make sense to not give him one.
Ohtani hit free agency when he was 3 years old than Soto will. These guys who hit FA in their mid-20s almost always want the opt-out. Soto is also repped by Boras who has gone on record that he advised Bryce Harper to get an opt-out in his contract but Harper didn’t listen. But Juan Soto basically just does everything Boras says and Boras will want to ensure the same mistake isn’t made.
Rally Goose, Only you would find Kershaw relevant to Soto. Since the system was instituted 131 players have been given a QO. Kershaw is the only one, who’s stature would have indicated he be given one, that wasn’t. That was unique. Only someone muddle-brained would see that as a precedent for any other player. You can say Kershaw is relevant all you want, but he clearly is not.
If Soto wants to best Ohtani’s deal he will have to make concessions. No opt-outs would be one. Signing a guy to a deal with a $50M AAV, with opt-outs, is something teams would want to avoid. Too much chance of getting burned. Maybe he signs with opt-outs, but it’s not guaranteed he will. And it’s not guaranteed it will be the Yankees.
@Jean Matrac All the reasons not to give Kershaw a QO also apply to Soto. He’s relevant.
Soto might not beat Ohtani’s record upfront if he gets an opt-out but he’ll have a better chance of doing so in the end if he does get one.
@TT
There’s a wide chasm between the words “should” and “will”.
I can’t see any of the top 8 player *not* getting $20M next year next year unless some extended deferred contract shenanigans happen.
Do you really think that Burnes isn’t worth $20M though at his age and with his consistency?
I think any of those potential candidates listed should take the offer immediately. I could see Kim declining possibly, I don’t think he’ll be worth his future contract, but someone will still offer it. Both sides should be pleased though if he just stays there for one more year on the QO. Do they have the money to pay him and Profar though?? Discount Profar is great, but full price? Not so much.
Same with those starting pitchers. Nice guys to get on one year deals, but quickly can go south on a multi year deal. I’d just keep trying the one year deals for pitchers because the’re a coin flip seemingly.
Kim was a slam dunk before the injury but now I’m not so sure. Profar they might do it just because they like him so much and with Preller gutting the farm at the deadline having another draft pick in-hand to rebuild it with if he declines would be huge.
For the Padres Kim is a maybe and Profar will not be QO’d. Profar has started to look like avg’ish bat he was before this season during the second half.
holecamels35, Over the short term, yes. But the big picture needs to be taken into consideration. It makes sense for guys to reject the QO, but sign for a lower AAV, than the QO amount. Most players would prefer a $15M AAV over multiple years, to taking the QO. There’s much less security taking the QO, since an injury could ruin future earning power. 4/60 is far preferable to 1/21 for most players.
I think the QO should be somewhat linked to the WAR of a player as well. Teams could issue offers that reflect how much value the player has contributed, making the QO less risky for both the team and the player. It could also prevent situations where clubs are reluctant to extend a QO because they fear overpaying for marginal talent, while at the same time ensuring top-tier free agents are rewarded for their performance.
The QO was intended to ensure that draft choices were only given for top players leaving through free agency.
@CardsFan57
That’s exactly why tying it to a player’s WAR could be beneficial. WAR is one of the best metrics we have for measuring overall player value. By adjusting the QO based on a player’s WAR, it would ensure that only the most impactful players—the ones who truly perform above replacement level—get a qualifying offer. It maintains the system’s original intent but makes it even more precise by linking compensation to actual on-field contributions.
This way, teams aren’t pressured into extending a QO to a player who doesn’t provide top-tier value, and at the same time, it better rewards truly elite players who deserve it. So, in a sense, this could actually refine and enhance the existing structure, still protecting the spirit of the QO system.
That’s nonsense. The elite players get QO’d already.
@jbigz12
So, you’d classify Joc Pederson & Martín Pérez were elite?
Okay…
What is not nonsense is the fact that before the QO all teams losing a player to free agency received a draft pick. Yes, only elite players get a draft pick linked to them if they receive a QO. It’s also a one time deal. Players never get a second QO.
Again, the entire point of inventing the QO was to make sure only top players were linked to draft picks.
It’s not only elite players that get a draft pick linked to them. It’s any player that has not already received a qualifying offer previously in his career and That player spent the entire season on that team’s roster.
So, my point remains, do you think Joc & Martin were elite players?
Name a player who had a draft pick attached to them without receiving a qualifying offer. As far as who deserves a qualifying offer, that’s for the team to decide. No one else gets a vote. We’re devolving into semantics here.
The fact still remains that the process was intended, not guaranteed, to make sure only top players had a draft pick attached to them.
So what your proposal is to not make Pérez and Pederson able to be QO’d for the full freight?
Top guys will get QO’d every time. Your system doesn’t help the top guys at all. It further hurts middle guys like Joc. The team didn’t have to extend that offer. They did and paid up. Why would the MLBPA want to give another concession to free agency for something that does not help the player. It makes their free agency less “free”.
I don’t have a proposal. I’m simply pointing out the fact that the QO is working exactly they way it was intended to work.
Full freight? I literally said, it should be tied to their WAR, so if it’s low, they shouldn’t be linked to $21M if the team decides to do so.
I don’t see it that way but whatever…
The point is your original proposal creates the possibility of any player receiving a qualifying offer. That’s exactly why the union negotiated the QO system. They don’t want that possibility.
@CardsFan57
I did not.
I now think you meant a single WAR value to decide QO eligibility. I don’t like that. I’d rather teams keep the ability to decide who deserves a QO.
Fear or Bwar?
@Non Roster Invitee
Fear sounds intriguing.
LOL. Fwar or Bwar or maybe a combo of both.
@Old York jbigz said all the elite players get QO’d. He did not say that all the players that get QO’d are elite.
And they could get guaranteed 21 mil by taking it. If the team doesn’t want to pay that much then don’t offer it.
So then take the qualifying offer and get your 21 mil and go to free agency the next year with no restrictions.
If San Diego offers Profar the qualifying offer he would be out of his mind to reject it.
Unless someone offers a long term deal before the deadline to accept or reject it.
Crash_n_burn, Profar will be 32 next season. Does he want to reenter free-agency at the age of 33, possibly on the heels of a down season? Or possibly a severe injury? I think not. If he can get an offer of 4/60, that would be better for him than taking the 1/21 QO. Even though the AAV is significantly less, the security is significantly better.
I don’t see either of those things happening.
Don’t see any team offering him 4/60
I would take that as well, I admit, but with his age and his inconsistency would you be willing to gamble multiple years for this guy?
If he had back to back good seasons can then see him getting 3 years at most.
Maybe not, but the way teams are overpaying for players it wouldn’t surprise me. I wouldn’t be happy if my team offered 4/60, but he is coming off a big season: 158 games, 24 HRs, .380 OBP, an .839 OPS, and a 134 OPS+. That could be an outlier, but some desperate team may gamble that it isn’t. But even if the best offer is 3/45, he’s better off rejecting the QO, and taking that.
Inflation is great for this but how many will it take it? Funny how just a few years ago it was $17M and that was considered a bit too much to pull the trigger.
They are doing it by formula. The only way it doesn’t rise is if the average salary of the top 125 players stagnates.
It’s based on the top 10% of 40 man roster payrolls….hasn’t changed.
The article I found said it’s based on the top 125 players. Either way, it will keep rising until they change the formula or top player salaries stagnate. I don’t see the top player salaries stagnating even if overall salaries stop rising temporarily.
30 teams x 40 man roster = 1200 So 10% is 120. Near enough to the 125 stated in the article.
I think Manaea at this point is a lock to receive the QO. Mets would gladly bring him back if he accepted, so there’s no reason not to offer it. Severino probably not, though I wouldn’t be surprised if they worked out a short term deal with him.
Even though a Severino QO is, in general, a borderline decision, the Mets needs to even field a rotation in ’25 makes him a more acceptable gamble to the them. 1/21 for Sevy won’t get in the way of them pursuing a Burnes, Fried or Snell and it will guarantee them depth.
@Stud: I don’t disagree. I think a lot depends on their other plans, though. If they’re planning on re-signing Pete and strongly pursuing Soto, in addition to going after one of those starters you mentioned, then I don’t see them offering a QO to Severino.
As far as depth, I could definitely see them bringing Quintana back. He was lights out down the stretch and is a solid back-of-the-rotation guy. Senga, Manaea, Peterson, Quintana is a good start. Megill is still around, Butto may get pushed back to the rotation. Sproat and Blade Tidwell may be ready. A couple of cheap flyers on lesser options, too, like they did with Sevy and Manaea this past offseason.
I offer it to both. It’s not a dramatic over pay if Severino accepts it.
I appreciate the education. I didn’t know how it worked
I think Kim and O’Neill are near locks.
Kim should automatically get a 4-year offer, unless there is reason to believe the injury is career threatening. As a RS fan, I’d gladly give him $70M (3.5 years * $20M).
O’Neill is not nearly as talented, but the downside is very low for the RS. Despite the OF depth and prospects, we are still short on RH hitters. If he accepts, I would not be bothered at all.
100% agreed on Kim. He’s an elite defender at SS and will only be 29 next year. Someone is going to pony up for his age 29-32 seasons.
He also just switched his agent to Boras. To me, he didn’t do that just to accept a QO.
I’ll take it!
Roughly a 50% increase in a decade. At this rate will be $30 million in 2034…
3.9% per year.
Making my annual argument against the system, primarily on competitive grounds. Owners may disagree with this, but when a big money team doesn’t have a pipeline talent to fill a weakness in either positional regulars or pitching, it goes out and buys it. The more draft choices forfeited the more the loss of potential talent, the greater the possibility too much is spent on B+ players. True stars are going to get paid anyway, QO or not, so the system doesn’t depress their top-of-the-market earning power, But the owners want to keep it because it’s low-lying fruit.
Mikenmn, I agree, but it’s not the owners, it’s the players that want to keep the QO system. If it was up to the owners there’d be a salary cap, but that was a deal breaker for the players. They’d probably prefer something more punitive for some teams wielding their financial clout. The QO system was the compromise, but the players like it better than the owners do.
The system was never intended to suppress the top-of-the-market earning power. The players like it for that very reason, and why they agreed to it, because, as you say, it doesn’t.
Most teams don’t have the financial resources of the Met’s, Dodgers, or Yankees. Those teams would love a more equitable system. But players want more of a free-market system, where players sign with the highest bidder. That keeps salaries higher, but also benefits the wealthier teams in their ability to acquire the better players. It’s a bad system for competitive balance.
Could go back to the prior system that depressed the players salary and made it harder for a bad teams recover long term.
for reference:
Before 2013, Major League Baseball (MLB) had a compensation system for free agents that included the following:
Type A free agents: Ranked in the top 20% of players at their position, the signing team gave its top draft pick to the club the player left. The club that lost the player also received a supplemental pick in the “sandwich” round.
Type B free agents: Ranked below the top 20% but in the top 40% of players at their position, the signing team did not lose a pick, but the club that lost the player received a supplemental pick.
Sign a better free agent and sacrifice the future/pipeline anyway with you losing your top pick to someone else and have more people automatically in the pool without choice (i remember it being more than 50 or 60 players but its been a while).. I like this current system better as it only effects pretty much a handful of players and teams can choose whether to offer it or not. Teams can honor heroes for the team like Kershaw and not give him a QO where the old system would force him even if both sides dont want it.
So Profar goes from 1 million per to a QO of $21 million? I don’t think so…
I would love to see this list with the amount of QO offers given and accepted next to it. The acceptance percentage would be the icing on the cake.
Qualifying offers began after the 2012 season, and only 13 of 131 offers have been accepted. so about 10% accepted and roughly about 10-12 offers a year … but it has dropped on how many offered. as dollars have gone up.
It seems like the Padres would be more likely to work out an extension with Profar than to give a QO. He wants to be in SD so if they offer a QO at that value he’s highly likely to take it.
He had a great year but there’s a lot of history working against him getting a big deal on the open market. We are a year removed from him having a negative 1.6 fWAR. I think there’s a general feeling on both sides that he’s better in SD and fits in on the Padres more than on other teams. Both sides are probably going to be motivated to work a multi-year deal out.
The Orioles are going to lose Burnes and Santander. They’re going to have a TON of early round picks next year. So in theory, 5 years from now will be another youth infusion on the MLB roster. Finally a consistently competitive club after those lean years.
Hopefully those comp picks are used on pitchers. We need to make an attempt in that department.
Of course…Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman, Willy Adames, Max Fried, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernandez.
Yes to…Sean Manaea, Christian Walker, Michael Wacha, Ha-Seong Kim (unless his medicals are horrid). Doubt any of the clubs would be upset if this group accepted – though I see highly doubtful any does.
Maybe to…Luis Severino (pitched as many innings this year as the previous 5 years combined – can he do it again?), Nick Martinez (had a huge 2nd half – probably won’t be hard to find a 2 year / 15 M per deal but the Reds are cheap). Still don’t think either team would be too upset if they accepted.
No to…Jurickson Profar (way too much of a gamble), Tyler O’Neill (had 2 great months primarily against lefties – unlikely to repeat).
What’s the O/U on Profar’s actual next contract? I think he’ll get 21M$ but it’ll be spread over 2 years instead of 1.
There is a zero percent chance the Reds risk a $21M QO on 34 year-old Nick Martinez. He’d say yes before the words were all out of the GM’s mouth and then he would account for approximately 64% of the Reds’ 2025 payroll.
Zero chance you say? Why? I guarantee you it’s above 0%. Players want multiyear contracts. He’d have no problem getting 15M$ per on a 2 year or more deal. That might be worth it to him, more so than a 1 year, 20M$ deal that could potentially be his last.
I think Kim stays in San Diego. If he doesn’t I think the Giants sign him. Giants a little unstable at SS and 2ND. I do hope the Giants re-sign Estrada too.
Will be interesting to see if boston offers o’neil and if he accepts..and hpw that could impact the rest of the rostor with top prospects on the doorstep