The Phillies won 87 games in 2022 and lost the World Series, won 90 games in 2023 and lost the NLCS, and then won 95 games and the NL East title this season but lost to the Mets in the NLDS. This mixture of progression and decline is becoming increasingly frustrating to a team built to win now, though with so much payroll already committed, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski might have to get creative in fixing some roster weaknesses.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Trea Turner, SS: $245,454,546 through 2033
- Bryce Harper, 1B: $170MM through 2031
- Aaron Nola, SP: $147,428,571 through 2030
- Zack Wheeler, SP: $126MM through 2027
- Nick Castellanos, OF: $40MM through 2026
- Taijuan Walker, SP: $36MM through 2026
- J.T. Realmuto, C: $23.875M through 2025
- Cristopher Sanchez, SP: $20.5MM through 2028 (includes $1MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2029; Phillies also have $15MM club option for 2030 with $1MM buyout)
- Kyle Schwarber, DH: $20MM through 2025
- Jose Alvarado, RP: $9.5MM through 2025 (includes $500K buyout of $9MM club option for 2026)
- Matt Strahm, RP: $7.5MM through 2025 (Phillies have $4.5MM club option for 2026)
2025 financial commitments: $220,219,156
Total future commitments: $846,258,117
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ranger Suarez (5.112): $8.9MM
- Austin Hays (5.057): $6.4MM
- Jose Ruiz (4.148): $1.2MM
- Edmundo Sosa (4.140): $2.5MM
- Garrett Stubbs (4.120): $1.2MM
- Alec Bohm (4.106): $8.1MM
- Kolby Allard (4.021): $1.1MM
- Brandon Marsh (3.078): $3MM
- Bryson Stott (3.000): $3.5MM
- Non-tender candidates: Allard, Hays, Stubbs
Free Agents
The warning lights on the Phillies' season started flashing well before the playoffs, as the team raced out to a dominant 45-19 start before posting a far more modest 50-48 record in its final 98 games. Such players as Trea Turner, Ranger Suarez and Alec Bohm cooled off after hot starts, injuries to Suarez and Spencer Turnbull exposed a lack of rotation depth, and the team's trade deadline additions had mixed results.
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Just buy some big fancy free agents to plug into the lineup it’s rotisserie league with Dombrowski.
“Rotisserie league”…For “win now” GMs, Dave Dombrowski is about as good as it gets. There’s a reason he’s taken at least 3 different teams(I think 4 actually)to at least 1 World Series appearance. And, there’s a reason the HOF already has a place picked out for the “Dom’s” Hall Of Fame statue.
“he’s taken at least 3 different teams”
I’d be more impressed if he stayed with one team and had long-term success.
It is very rare for Executives and/or star players to stay with one team for their entire careers for many reasons.
Santander!
For far too long the Phillies have escaped the lol tag.
That ends today. That ends right now.
Lol Phillies
“Lol Phillies”..Just so you remember, the Phillies have been to a World Series and a couple of championship series rounds in the last 3-4 yrs. Only one team will win it all and the Phillies have not gotten there yet.
That being said, only maybe 5 or 6 teams(if that many)have had a better last 4 yrs than the Phillies. I’m not a Phillies fan per se, but I do watch an awful lot of MLB and it seems quite a bit of a desperate reach to “Lol Phillies”.
@mlb fan,
Your points are appreciated, but trolls are gonna troll.
Okay but two World Series rings in 142 years is still pretty lol. The past three years they’ve been bridesmaids. The ten before that, not even invited to the wedding. They get an lol pass from a lot of people because they spend money. Not me. A .474 franchise history winning % is lol-able
Yeah, like I said.
Yeah you’re right Bart. Numbers lie and everyone who points them out to the fans of that team are trolls. What a baby. Wipe those cheez wiz tears and come back when you’re done with your time out. Loser
@buckle,
Thanks for proving my point. Well done, sir!
Comments like this are why we need a thumbs down emoji.
Sounds like more stupid money! Didn’t the owner (Middleton) say “stupid money” a few years ago?
Is this a Mets fan talking about how the Phillies owner spends money foolishly?
Assuming they NT Hays, they are at $275M, and need an SP (likely), another ‘okay’ OF, a closer, and another decent RP. Without a trade, it will be difficult to keep this under $300M.
If they do NT Hays, hope Os get him back. Compliments Mullins well, a needed seasoned league level RH stick. 6 plus mil is worth it … even with nagging and varying injury and illness that seem to show up year in-n-out.
Cowser, Mullins, Hays OF is a plus group defensively … and with Kjersted as a 4th … in 25. Santander? He gone.
Jeff;
Unless he’s in a wheelchair, Austin Hays will not be released.
As for Kjersted in the OF…be careful of what you wish for.
Hays is very likely a non-tender. At his projected salary, a quad A guy can replace him.
Samuel is dead wrong. Hays is a likely non tender.
I am trying to figure out if there is a material difference between Hays and Refsnyder. Hays is better, but both are short-side platoon leftfielders.
As a starter, Hays is better, since he can maybe handles RHP at least a little. But if the intent is to have them platoon, Ref hits lefties better than Hays does,
Phillies gonna have a lot of old men on contracts soon.
Same club that paid Jamie Moyer at 47 and Matt Stairs at 41
AARPhillies
And they won a world series doing so. What a horrible example from the troll
The Phillies “window” is closing, perhaps more rapidly than expected.
It’s a very top heavy team, very reminiscent of the Amaro years
Whoaaaa…..
How the national sports media and front-running fans can change the narrative on a dime.
Mets! Mets! Mets! Mets! Mets! Mets! Mets! Mets! Mets! Mets! Mets!
Guess the Phillies and Braves room with the Marlins from now on.
Lousy PoBO’s. Managers. Coaches. Players.
They still have two aces in Wheeler and Nola, Sanchez is a solid #3, and Suarez can be counted on in the 4 or 5. If Painter comes through, that’s a solid starting five. I don’t see this team falling apart in the next two years, and Dombrowski has recently shown he can add bullpen arms. This team was built for the playoffs but just didn’t pull it off, much like half of the league.
Yes exactly. Like how many times in the last 5-10 years have the Yankees and Dodgers been bounced in the playoffs the first round or two. Phillies are a real good team who stumbled in playoffs. They will be back in “25.
Chicken In Philly?;
Ranger is a 4 or 5?
When he was healthy this year he pitched like a #1. If they’re
hard up for a closer he can go back there and be one of the
top 5 in MLB. He’s surely better than Nola (if healthy).
DD has some work to do with the position players….and the bullpen…..again.
I had Suarez on a couple of roto teams. He was unbeatable early, but struggled after June, particularly after he returned from the IL. It was a back injury, so I wouldn’t be too concerned.
Ranger had an incredible run to start the year, but he lives off of ground balls, not Ks, which is atypical for an ace. He also hasn’t put together a full, solid season like Nola or Wheeler. Hes valuable, but he’s no #1 or #2.
Yes and the Mets…. WON’T.
Are you really predicting 4.12 million for Stubbs? The guy brings nothing to the team whatsoever.
You’re joking with this right?
Take on Myles Straw contract to acquire Emmanuel Clase from the Guardians. No way with all those arms they are paying him 15mil per year, especially since he blew a couple of crucial games for them. Something like Rojas, de la Cruz, Mercado & MCgarry for Straw (3/20mil remaining with buyouts) & E. Clase (2/35ish).
DD did say they are going to have to be clever and creative. Would also take on all of Trout’s (6/220) long term salary if the pitching starved Angels would take back Taijuan Walker (2/37) and maybe even Nick Castellanos (2/40) – since Arte said 1. He will not rebuild and 2. Will not eat any salary to facilitate a Mike Trout trade. The Angels and Phillies trade with each other more than any two teams in baseball. They know each other’s farm systems and would love to turn around a couple of live arms like Mick Abel or Andrew Baker that we would kick in.
Long shot/lower end FA’s the Phillies should target this winter:
1. Joey Gallo – batted .160 and still provided positive WAR. Only 29 years old
2. Patrick Corbin – rubber arm, maybe becomes David Robertson out of the pen, reliable 5th starter at least.
3. Mike Soroka – 0-10 for the dreadful Sox last year but only 27 years old and 3 years ago got CY votes.
4. Giovanny Gallegos – still got gas
5. Peter Lambert – former 2nd round pick outside of Coors?
The Phillies should call the Guardians and tell them they will take on Myles Straw (3/20mil owed w/ buyouts) with Emmanuel Clase (2/35ish). No way the Guards keep Clase with all those arms. Plus his salary is about to triple and he blew a couple of crucial games for them. DD said they need a clever and creative way to fill holes. What better way then the best closer in baseball and platinum glove CF. Johan Rojas, Carlos de la Cruz, Mick Abel & McGarry for Straw & Clase – something like that. Would free up ton of cash.
Under the radar/low salary free agents they should go after this winter:
1. Joey Gallo (batted .160 and still produced positive WAR)
2. Patrick Corbin (rubber arm reliable 5th starter maybe even becomes David Robertson out of the pen)
3. Mike Soroka (went 0-10 for the dreadful WhiteSox but is only 27 years old and got CY votes 3 years ago)
4. Geovanny Gallegos (still throws gas)
5. Peter Lambert (former 2nd rd pick outside of Coors)
Zack Littell is the target I would like to see them trade for. And where did you get Clase’s salary numbers from? He’s signed to a club friendly deal through 2026 with salaries of $4.9 and $6.4 coming to him over the next two years, and then two club options exist for ten million each.
I don’t see that happening. First off that is not an accurate depiction of clase’s contract. He’s under contract at bargain basement rates for his value for 2025 and 2026, total value for those seasons around 11.5-12 mill. Then the guards have two ten mill team options for 27 and 28. There’s an absurd amount of surplus value there and the guards can definitely afford to keep him, especially with the cash infusion from their playoff run. They would ask for a better headline r in return than you’re proposing I’d they would move him at all, which I doubt they will.
It doesn’t make sense for the guards to move clase given his affordability and their prospects of competing in 2025. None of the pieces you’re suggesting add enough immediate impact for the guards and it doesn’t make sense for them to weaken their pen given ongoing questions about their rotation which will be harder for them to upgrade.
For the Phils taking on straw is dead money when they have Rojas and marsh to fill his role better on the cheap, and given their financial picture that doesnt seem wise. And in Rojas they have a guy who has flashed enough in mlb that there is still upside on the cheap. The phils should give him an honest shot to try and put it all together and seize the cf job this season. If not worst case they have a serviceable plus glove 4th of on the cheap which is definitely a role they need filled. In short the phils have better, cheaper myles straw at home.
If the Phillies run it back with same lineup next season its gonna be ugly. They gotta get creative and make some moves.
Why? How would the same lineup produce ugly results, when this lineup scored the third most runs in the NL, had the fourth best run differential in MLB, and injuries are unpredictable? Would you say the same thing about the Braves?
I meant more so from the point of view of fans. We need a batter or two with a different approach and a solid bullpen piece or two and a 5th starter type. They will still get wins and do well but the fear of PTSD from three consecutive exits due to the bats going cold in the playoffs is very real.
The Phillies and Braves were about tied in run differential, and same Py W/L. But Atlanta had a ton of injuries. I would think that has to give Atlanta the edge in 2025.
I’d also consider that the Phillies were basically .500 since the end of June. I wouldn’t discount the fact that they might have been about .700 for while, but also something that should not be ignored.
Definitely. ATL will have a great rebound year
Atlanta does not have the same rotation coming back next year. They have huge holes to fill.
Chicken, Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Your questioning how the same Phillies lineup would produce ugly results again next season may not be insane, but it’s certainly not astute either.
Lol, 95 wins looks ugly, lol
For the Phils to win a world championship in 2025, they have to not only acquire new talent by free agency, trade and minor league promotion, but they also have to change a team chemistry that is no longer working. The Phils have to get tough and stop acting and playing like a bunch of privileged amateurs. They also have to start taking better advantage of their existing strengths. For starters, the Phils need to trade Schwarber who, although a better-rounded hitter in 2024, is still a liability because of his 200+ strikeouts a year, mediocre batting average, inability to play any defensive position, hampering the team’s running game, hogging the DH position on a team that would greatly benefit from a DH by committee of older veterans, $20 million salary and pending free agency after the 2025 season. The Phils also need to trade the $18 million a year Taijuan Walker who ceased being a Phillie emotionally after he wasn’t used in the 2024 playoffs. The Phils eating some of Schwarber or Walker’s salary in a trade would be acceptable. If the Phils could, they would dramatically improve by trading for centerfielder Jake McCarthy of the Diamondbacks, infielder Luis Arraez of the Padres, outfielder Kyle Tucker of the Astros and either closer Clase of the Guardians, Miller of the A’s or Helmsley of the Cards. If they can’t improve centerfield, leftfield and the closer position by trade, they could also dramatically improve by acquiring free agent center fielder Teoscar Hernandez, and leftfielder/infielder Jurickson Profar. Anthony Santander would be another possibility for leftfield, but his defense is not as good as Profar’s and he will be much more expensive. Finally, the Phils could dramatically improve by promoting catcher Rafael Marchan and starter Andrew Painter. The Phils need to start having someone sharing time behind the plate with the aging Realmuto, who is making $23 million a year and also becomes a free agent after 2025. The Phils need to infuse youth into their lineup, expand the DH to allow more players to continue hitting while taking a day off defensively, and start taking better advantage of their running game, something they have been unable to do with the slow-running Schwarber leading off and thwarting the base-stealing efforts of guys like Turner and Harper. The Phils could become a world series contender in 2025 if they change their lineup as suggested, develop a more competitive image on and off the field, stay healthy, and remain aware of the Braves and Mets who, if they remain healthy and focused, could return to NL East dominance, leaving an unchanged Phillies team in their dust.
This take is one for the books. Thanks for handpicking all the players you’d love to have on your fantasy Phillies team. And the “act tough” and “stop playing like a bunch of amateurs” is such solid advice! I actually think they need to hire you as team president.
The playoffs are a five or seven game series. It’s really difficult to pinpoint sometimes why a team doesn’t pull through and win one. Your take does nothing to actually evaluate why they’ve lost in back-to-back years, but it does illuminate the ignorance of some fans.
Chicken, They’ve lost in back-to-back playoffs because their team is incomplete as is. Hence, my analysis of what they have to do to make it complete.
Lol, i stopped reading when I saw that your masterplan basically calls for replacing Kyle Schwarber with Luis arraez and trading for multiple guys who are very unlikely to be available at all. Take a deep breath and put the monster energy drinks down for a while my dude lol
Hatless, My analysis calls for replacing Schwarber with a DH by committee, and adding players that will make a real difference to the team, rather than marginal players who will only complicate matters. The reality of the situation is that Realmuto’s best days are behind him. He can’t catch as often as he once did, but he needs to hit regularly. Turner needs days away from shortstop when he enters one of his sloppy periods where he can’t seem to hold on to grounders, but he needs to continue hitting regularly. The same can be said for Bohm at third base. Harper and Castellanos would also profit from defensive days off where they were still able to bat as the DH. Sosa needs a lot more playing time, and a DH by committee would allow him to get that time. So, you’re wrong thinking I want to replace Schwarber with Arraez or any other player for that matter. I do think the Phils have the opportunity to get a quality player or players back in return for Schwarber by a trade. Players like Arraez, Tucker, Clase, and even McCarthy – players who would have an immediate impact on the Phils, may require a substantial player like Schwarber in return, and because of his weak batting average, strikeout propensity, and inability to contribute defensively, he may be the Phils’ most expendable position player. The $20 million a year Schwarber and $23 million a year Realmuto are free agents after the 2025 season. If the Phils don’t win the world series in 2025, they are both expensive players the Phils may choose not to resign. Alternatively, if the Phils don’t win the world series in 2025, Schwarber and Realmuto may choose to test the free agent market. That’s why trading an expendable player like Schwarber right now and getting a valuable player in return makes a lot of sense.
Ok…paragraph breaks are your friends my dude. Try and get acquainted with them.
It’s highly debatable to describe shwarber as expendable since he just hit 38 home runs with an obp in the 360s, which is very in line with his performance with the phils over the life of the deal. No evidence of decline in his numbers rn and he’s young and durable enough to be a relatively strong bet to perform to career norms on his last year of the deal. Heck he even got the batting average up by a significant tick this year!
Bats like that don’t grow on trees. He’s also a fan favorite and key clubhouse presence which make him far from casually expendable since his on field production is quite strong. Castellanos is far more expendable albeit harder to move, but sliding him into schwarbers role is a downgrade.
The other problem here is that tucker and clase are, by any reasonable evaluation, far less readily available than you appear to think and would come at a heavy cost. It is far from certain that the phils even have enough pieces they would part with to get both those dudes, if they are even gettable by anyone rn. Throw in the other guys you want them to trade for on top of that and it’s just utterly unrealistic. None of those players are going to come at an insignificant cost and it’s not plausible that certain of those teams are going to accept high paid veteran rentals in return.
Dombrowski is obviously a 1st Ballot Hall of Famer
so he does not need my advice.
But, just for a few laughs, I will throw a few things out there.
“Shake things up” Phillies Team is getting too comfortable and not hungry enough to fight like junkyard dogs for a Championship.
Talk to Trey Turner about moving off SS to LF or CF (Jackson Merrill)
Move Stott to SS fulltime for a defensive upgrade
Fast track Aiden Miller to the majors to play 2B or 3B
Fast track Justin Crawford to the majors for CF or LF
Make a few of Dave Dombrowski blockbuster style trades:
Trading chips on the table should include at least one or more of the following:
3B Alec Bohn, LF/DH Kyle Schwarber and more.
Get some multi dimensional, interchangeable parts that can play multiple infield and OF positions well and can hit in the clutch for playoffs and World Series (or signings if enough salary is cleared in deals).
Make a few strategic signings for reasonable costs like a LHSP Matthew Boyd and 1-2 little ball hitters with speed who can scratch and create runs when the power game shuts down. to start and/or fortify the bench and give Manager Rob Thomson many more options and weapons to use in crucial game situations.
If they move some salary off the books, then consider signing Brewers free agent SS Willy Adames can play 3B, SS, 2B OF.
Just a few of many, many possibilities to get the Phillies lined up for a World Series in 2025.
Nick Castellanos could also be a Phillies trade chip for the right return…
Fan, In 2025, the Phils will need Bohm and Castellanos who were two of the Phils’ most reliable and consistent players in 2024. Bohm played the end of the year with a significant hand injury. He downplayed it for the media, but his hitting was obviously hampered by his injury. Castellanos does not get the limelight that Harper, Schwarber and Turner do, but he was the Phils most consistent hitter in the final few months of the season and in the playoffs. What’s more, his defense is very underrated. He makes many difficult catches routinely and has one of the best outfield arms in baseball. The Phils shouldn’t rush Miller or Crawford to the majors. They did it to Rojas and may have ruined his career in the process. The Phils don’t need Adames. If they trade for any infielder, it should be Luis Arraez. I agree the Phils should play Turner in the outfield, but he evidently has balked at the idea. Sosa and Stott are both better defensive shortstops than Turner and, together, would make a solid middle infield. I also agree the Phils will have to free up money to facilitate new free agent acquisitions. Pending free agent Schwarber at $20 million and Walker at $18 million are the Phils top two trade candidates. Pending free agent Realmuto at $23 million is another trade candidate, especially in light of minor league catcher Rafael Marchan’s brief but eye-opening major league performance last season. Turner will probably not be traded, but he has still not proven he is worth what the Phils are paying him. So, who knows what might happen to him and when? The Phils will never trade Harper, the face of the franchise, but I personally think Harper will request a trade to the A’s when they finally settle in Las Vegas, especially if he still hasn’t won a championship in Philly.